/bmg/ - Bond Market General

[Anonymous No.56130664]

25 bepis points edition

>Educational sites:
https://www.investopedia.com/
https://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain

>Financial TV Streams:
https://watchnewslive.tv/watch-cnbc-live-stream-free-24-7/
http://www.livenewson.com/american/bloomberg-television-business.html
https://watchnewslive.tv/watch-fox-business-network-fbn-free-24-7/

>Charts:
https://www.tradingview.com
https://www.finscreener.com
https://www.koyfin.com/
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com

>Screeners:
https://finviz.com/
https://www.tradingview.com/screener
https://etfdb.com/

>Options
https://www.optionsplaybook.com/options-introduction/
https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com
https://optionstrat.com/
https://www.optionistics.com/quotes/option-prices

>Pre-Market and Live data:
https://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futures
https://finance.yahoo.com/

>Calendars
https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar
https://www.earningswhispers.com/calendar
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

>Boomer Investing 101:
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Getting_started

>Misc:
https://tradingeconomics.com/
https://finance.yahoo.com/trending-tickers
https://market24hclock.com/
https://wallmine.com/
https://fintel.io/
https://www.dividendchannel.com/drip-returns-calculator
https://brokerchooser.com/
https://www.chathamfinancial.com/technology/us-market-rates

Previous: >>56127792

[Anonymous No.56130677]

nigger

[Anonymous No.56130681]

Is it time to buy the 2 year?

[Anonymous No.56130685]

>nothing to see here

[Anonymous No.56130688]

Baking.

[Anonymous No.56130690]

>>56130664
Oil?

[Anonymous No.56130698]

Bonds are lame

[Anonymous No.56130702]

>move along

[Anonymous No.56130708]

And then BOBO Fontaine comes along with his olive oil voice and guinea charm and she runs off

[Anonymous No.56130727]

>>56130690
I think short oil

[Anonymous No.56130742]

Tilray is the way

[Anonymous No.56130746]

>>56130664
people who trade bonds are fags

[Anonymous No.56130750]

>>56130742
It doesn't seem to be the way.

[Anonymous No.56130751]

>>56130746
At least I make money with my bond trading.
Unlike my options gambling. I've lost $500 on that alone this year.

[Anonymous No.56130752]

>>56130746
you're just mad that they get paid first when a shitco goes under

[putsRnotDaWae No.56130754]

>>56130702
>>56130685
Proof that Bidenomics are working and the soft landing is done. That's another Biden win.

[Anonymous No.56130756]

>>56130751

[Anonymous No.56130759]

>>56130567
>They're going to get more obnoxious as the price continues increasing.
Same people pumping uranium now were saying a year ago that oil would go to $250. Uranium spot price is actually lower now than it was at it's 2022 peak. Sprott is planning to change their structure and allow bulk redemptions in a method that's vaguely similar to an ETF. Part of the apparent tightness between last spring and today was due to Sprott trading below NAV while maintaining hold on those useless tons of uranium because they had no mechanism to sell. Redemptions mean it won't trade much below NAV, but also means that weakness will lead to selling pounds into weakness thus exacerbating uranium price swings to the downside.

Unprofitable companies typically never become sustainably profitable. They will always be marginal, and the stocks exist to go through pump and dump cycles and dilute the fuck out of long term investors so that management can take their paycheck. Uranium will peak at a price thats roughly break even, they'll raise funds, and then their own supply response will crash the price. Same thing happens in every commodity. Investors in marginal producers are mostly retards.
Cameco and Kazatomprom seem to be the only stocks worth anything, long-term.

None of this means uranium can't pull some retarded squeeze in the near future, merely that any pump will surely be followed by equivalent dumping. Suppose it spikes to $200 as some pumpers will tell you. What would compel anyone to keep holding Sprott at that level? Knowing that other pumpers are about to dump, what would compel them to hold past even $100?
That said, at some point in the next 5 or so years, it'll HAVE to pump to $100+ to trigger that temporary supply response. Holding Sprott until that point is a minimum %15 IRR. I remain undecided whether this is the point in time to chase the bubble, or if it'll be delayed for yet another year.
As for oil I'll continue to hold my cheap producers, at better IRRs.

[Anonymous No.56130762]

>>56130751
Only $500?
>5 fig losses 3 years in a row and counting

[Anonymous No.56130766]

>>56130750
im sorry, what in the fuck did you draw? A dinosaur? TA is complete CRINGE

[Anonymous No.56130767]

>>56130742
>SSSSSSSNNNNNNNNNIIIIIIIIIIFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF

[Anonymous No.56130775]

>>56130762
have you tried investing instead of buying 0dtes

[Anonymous No.56130778]

>>56130762
Wow.

[Anonymous No.56130786]

>>56130775
Was up last year 5 figs but then over traded, so I'm going to keep doing this

[Anonymous No.56130808]

>>56130759
The 60 million pounds that SPUT holds is only enough to cover the uranium deficit for one year. Redemption mechanism hasn't been approved yet.

[Anonymous No.56130811]

What the fuck is going on with treasuries?

[Anonymous No.56130816]

>>56130811
It's being managed.

[Anonymous No.56130819]

Was that a glitch with yields? That shit was super fucking sus

[Anonymous No.56130851]

>>56130664
Just bought another $20,000 of 17-weekers this past week. Wagmi bondbros \m/

[Anonymous No.56130855]

>Welcome... to TreasuryDirect.gov
Just bought one of the bonds of all time. Now that the dust has settled, what did I think of it?

[Anonymous No.56130864]

>>56130819
>>56130816
Similar action in Canada's bond market a few days ago

[Anonymous No.56130871]

Every single financial institution in the United States is going to evaporate all at once. This inludes the US Treasury Department.

[Anonymous No.56130875]

I just nooticed there are now NINETY FIVE stooks and ETFs in HOODS 24 hour trading. Still no BOIL despite there being KOLD and UNG though. XOM is in there now.

[Anonymous No.56130883]

One month ago Canadian 04Y yields did the same too

[Anonymous No.56130910]

>>56130808
It'll be approved instantly whenever shares trade below NAV again. It's free money. Thinking otherwise is like assuming some merger/buyout won't be approved while shares float a 20% discount. If there were enough interest to outvote such an action, a discount would not exist as those holders would keep holding while supply of the float quickly dries up.
Sprott is not the only source of spare pounds, but I don't think redemptions significantly extend the actual deficit timeline. What they could do, maybe, is stall out the possibility of an early pump this year - like we saw last year. This is important because if it's not squeezing right now, today, then there's going to be another retrace back to 50s. If it's not happening right now, for real, then I see no reason to buy today. None of it seems especially compelling over a 5+ year horizon, it is only worthwhile as a trade. Model and compare full-cycle valuations vs coal/oil and you'll understand what I mean. It was different back in 2020 with uranium pricing in the 20s, and I was long back then.
As it stands, I don't quite buy this pump. I'm skeptical.

[Anonymous No.56130916]

kek, now we have split threads great work op

[Anonymous No.56130938]

>>56130664
This may be one of the, if not the best /smg/s of all time

[Anonymous No.56130949]

>>56130938
>This may be one of the, if not the best /smg/s of all time
Is that because it's *NOT* an /smg/ thread? It clearly says /bmg/, faggot inbred.
IS THAT /smg/?!?! HUH?

[Anonymous No.56130959]

>>56130855
Kek'd audibly, not even sure why

[Anonymous No.56130973]

>>56130938
It is because we are at an inflection point. 6% yields soon, stock baggies... Why not join us in comfy bond land?

[Anonymous No.56130992]

>>56130973
>Makes argument for 6% yields.
>Current yields between 4.3-5%.
>Proceeds to call bonds a good investment.

[Anonymous No.56131012]

>>56130973
Won't be very comfy when Janet absconds back to Israel with your money. :^)

[Anonymous No.56131024]

Haha Jerome is so fucked. Yield controls incoming. Total market meltdown this week. Screencap this.

[Anonymous No.56131082]

>tfw my roth lazy portfolio doing a lil' something something

[Anonymous No.56131130]

>>56131024
Can someone explain to me how the price fluctuates in real time even though there is no treasury auction happening right now? What is dictating the live price?

[Anonymous No.56131140]

treasuries are mid.
corporate bonds, now thats bussin fr fr

[Anonymous No.56131185]

>>56130746
>yfw you will never purchase a zero coupon bond at a discount to face value and see it's value increase as rates fall

[Anonymous No.56131203]

I am waiting to slurp TMF. How high are yields going bros??

[Anonymous No.56131224]

>>56131203
>I am waiting to slurp TMF. How high are yields going bros??
What do you think about the Nov meeting? Hike, pause, cut??
t. Fellow TMF baron

[Anonymous No.56131260]

>>56131203
I want to impregnate this woman regardless of if she wants it or not.

[Anonymous No.56131267]

>>56130759

I remember warning people about SPUT. It was always obviously laughable that if there was a supply shortage that might shut down plants they'd ever be allowed to just sit on the Uranium and be like 'nuhuh, no redemptions', they'd be nationalized overnight and they'd be very lucky to get full value at that. So yes obviously they will redeem the needful, and Sprott are giga-kikes for even attempting to pretend otherwise.

I disagree about it peaking at break even, however. Commodity markets always go to retarded excesses in both directions, that's why they're fun to play. Of course there's going to be a shortage because the utilities are retarded and they got themselves in an undersupply situation that Cameco and KAZ are not gonna be able cover, and the little fish aren't going to be producing shit for years. Even if the buffer SPUT has built up allows them to coast on fumes for the next few years, speculators are going to front run them and bend them over the uranium barrel. SPUT was literally built to facilitate shaking them down, and pumping the mostly bullshit junior U miners to retardo levels and then dump them on retail idiots.

[Anonymous No.56131310]

tharr be a happenin a brewin

[Anonymous No.56131322]

>>56131310
Yes

[Anonymous No.56131345]

>>56131310
Why?

[Anonymous No.56131357]

is there an official yield curve from the FRED ?
all i found is this table
https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2023

but I really want the curve. Also I want it for the nominal rates, but also for the real rates.

[Anonymous No.56131371]

>>56131130
Bumping for some big brain bond poster to explain this to me

[Anonymous No.56131384]

>>56131371
supply and demand for the bonds already issued i think

[Anonymous No.56131413]

>>56131130
It's the futures market

[Anonymous No.56131431]

>>56131130
The "bond market" refers to the secondary market. People who bought bonds from the treasury selling them to others. You can buy them directly from the treasury too, but the vast majority of bond market trading is people/corps trading between each other. It's kind of similar to the stock market, in that when people buy and sell stocks, they're trading with other people. With the vast majority of trades NOT being from stock issuer to 2nd party entity.

[Anonymous No.56131437]

>>56131431
So then how do we see that on a weekend there are treasuries trading hands between two private companies?

[Anonymous No.56131588]

Bros is this week gonna be it? One big stinky red shit?

[Anonymous No.56131612]

>>56130664
Can you feel the energy surrounding this week financial world? This monday I can feel it, don't know how much make up they will try to hide or prolong this, but this week is a week of big opportunities for those that are liquid.

[Anonymous No.56131985]

>>56131224
I think JPow will keep us at current fed funds rate. Probably cuts by early 2024 if shit doesn't break before then

[Anonymous No.56132081]

>>56131612
What's the plan, buddy

[Anonymous No.56133514]

>>56131357
>is there an official yield curve from the FRED ?
>all i found is this table
>https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2023
>
>but I really want the curve. Also I want it for the nominal rates, but also for the real rates.
BUMP WHERE IS THE YIELD CURVE FROM THE OFFICIALS ?

[Anonymous No.56135527]

boomp
Verification not required.

[Anonymous No.56136716]

ECB raised rates last week. I'm thinking Fed will raise rates too

[Anonymous No.56136769]

>>56136716
Of course the Fed is going to hike. They already skipped and then inflootion rose again.

[Anonymous No.56137255]

>>56136769
When do they announce it? Tomorrow or Wednesday

[Anonymous No.56137298]

>>56137255
Wed

[Anonymous No.56137377]

Bond market collapsing and crashing the entire world economy still wouldn't make up for how boring it is.

[Anonymous No.56137395]

NNNNNIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIGGGGGGGGEEEEEEEEEEEEEERSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

[Anonymous No.56137507]

How do I trade bonds? I have no idea. I just know how to buy stocks and options

[Anonymous No.56138437]

I can't believe this thread is still up.
Bond yields are mooning in 2 days, check um

[Anonymous No.56138468]

Should I buy bonds or wait a few days?

[Anonymous No.56138470]

>>56130855
/tv/ is the worst board on 4chan.

[Anonymous No.56138504]

>>56138468
The fed is about to raise rates, just wait bro.

[Anonymous No.56138514]

>>56138504
Fucks sake I forgot it was FOMC week.

[Anonymous No.56138516]

>two more days of this.
Hello, I hate the feds.

[Anonymous No.56138548]

>>56138514
What?! FOMC week!?! I did not notice! I bought 5k more SSO! AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

[Anonymous No.56138559]

>>56138548
Prepare your anus.

[Anonymous No.56138569]

THought about buying JNK etf bond fund about a year ago, wonder how i would have done

[Anonymous No.56140155]

Buy bonds nigga, we're going to the moon

[Anonymous No.56140893]

>The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) on Tuesday upgraded its projections for the global economic growth in 2023, setting the rate at 3% for the year. The gross domestic product (GDP), however, is expected to slow to 2.7% next year.

line goes up

[Anonymous No.56140961]

I kind of want to buy bonds but my broker doesn't offer that many and the yield is lower than what I get for holding cash. Should I still invest in bonds?

[Anonymous No.56141181]

>>56140961
dunno about bonds

[Anonymous No.56141614]

Yields will never have a red day ever again