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2023-11: Warosu is now out of extended maintenance.

/biz/ - Business & Finance


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55904901 No.55904901 [Reply] [Original]

Baking is Fun Edition

>Educational sites:
https://www.investopedia.com/
https://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain

>Financial TV Streams:
https://watchnewslive.tv/watch-cnbc-live-stream-free-24-7/
http://www.livenewson.com/american/bloomberg-television-business.html
https://watchnewslive.tv/watch-fox-business-network-fbn-free-24-7/

>Charts:
https://www.tradingview.com
https://www.finscreener.com
https://www.koyfin.com/
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com

>Screeners:
https://finviz.com/
https://www.tradingview.com/screener
https://etfdb.com/

>Options
https://www.optionsplaybook.com/options-introduction/
https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com
https://optionstrat.com/
https://www.optionistics.com/quotes/option-prices

>Pre-Market and Live data:
https://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futures
https://finance.yahoo.com/

>Calendars
https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar
https://www.earningswhispers.com/calendar
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

>Boomer Investing 101:
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Getting_started

>Misc:
https://tradingeconomics.com/
https://finance.yahoo.com/trending-tickers
https://market24hclock.com/
https://wallmine.com/
https://fintel.io/
https://www.dividendchannel.com/drip-returns-calculator
https://brokerchooser.com/
https://www.chathamfinancial.com/technology/us-market-rates

Previous: >>55902668

>> No.55904913
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55904913

>noonstork is getting closer to moonstock

>> No.55904917
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55904917

>>55904901
>he baked
ngmi...

>> No.55904920
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55904920

He fuckin baked.

>> No.55904926
File: 3.70 MB, 640x480, Shareprice.webm [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55904926

>> No.55904929
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55904929

In about two weeks it's going back up to it's ATH screen cap this

>> No.55904932
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55904932

I’m horny
But dunno what to jerk it to

>> No.55904933

this motherfucker actually baked

>> No.55904948

Bonds don't matter anymore, the fed will be buying them. Lockdowns by october. people in the know already loading up on moderna and zoom stock

>> No.55904961

>>55904932
granny porn, you will need a patron

>> No.55904968
File: 2.93 MB, 832x624, 1549316753218.webm [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55904968

If Alizée has one million fans, then I am one of them.
If Alizée has one fan, then I am that one.
If Alizée has no fans, then I am dead.
Happy birthday my angel, financially speaking.

>> No.55904970

>>55904948
Wouldn't we get 30% inflation if they actually went through with this?

>> No.55904971

>>55904948
kek I remember some baggie saying he was happy to finally be able to unload his moderna earlier today.

>> No.55904972

NVDA PUTS WILL PROFIT AFTER THIS WEEK NIGGAS

>> No.55904974
File: 1.41 MB, 320x180, X78B8j.gif [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55904974

>>55904961
>granny porn
SHORTY SO SEDUCTIVE DANCIN ON ME
ITS THE WAY THAT SHE MOVE THATS MAKIN ME HORNY

>> No.55904983

>>55904972
>thinking the people selling dynamite during a gold rush won't report growth

>> No.55904987
File: 139 KB, 500x334, 1332209496563.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55904987

So if Nvidia doesn't post at least $11bn for this quarter it's going to dump right?

>> No.55904991
File: 12 KB, 391x300, 1677405939347205.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55904991

>>55904987
nah glowies won't let it, they have to win the AI war with China.

>> No.55905007

>>55904917
>Sign...
>zip
>opens rule34

>> No.55905008

>>55904991
>implying it won't just dump and then rebound like it did before

>> No.55905020

>>55904970
no because everything would go down with people at home doing nothing
>>55904971
He should have held

>> No.55905029

>>55905020
he didn't know why it pumped

>> No.55905035

>>55904970
Shutting down the economy would tank asset prices

>> No.55905043

>>55905029
inb4 he's back in at 250 in feb

>> No.55905047

>>55905043
the eternal baggie

>> No.55905054

Holy fucking shit, the women on BMBL are borderline retarded / lazy. Even if they are nice people they are retarded

>> No.55905058
File: 18 KB, 480x280, C1r4n8uWEAAmi8w.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55905058

>bobos
WHATS A MATTER WITH YOU?

>> No.55905064
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55905064

its over

>> No.55905068
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55905068

It's literally going to be just fine tomorrow isn't it bros
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wBwUJMZNOgQ

>> No.55905078
File: 164 KB, 1421x1062, 1674559476733153.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55905078

>>55905068
it will until nvidia earnings, then 24 hours later we will be back to last friday levels.

>> No.55905085
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55905085

>>55905078

>> No.55905108
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55905108

I need the most dumbed down explanation of options trading. I am literally not understanding how it works. In video form with animation prefered.

>> No.55905113

>>55905108
just stay away then, your brain is too small. many such cases

>> No.55905121
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55905121

NVDA bobos

>> No.55905139

>>55905113
can't be that dumb, he posted godzilla fucking up a crab so he's at least based.

>> No.55905144
File: 27 KB, 640x392, option strats.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55905144

>>55905108
Options are a contract that gives the buyer the ability to buy or sell 100 shares at a predetermined price; the contract has an expiration date.
Option prices have a fair value as given by the Black-Scholes formula. The actual market price can be higher or lower than this. If you take the partial derivative of the BS formula, you get Greeks, which are variables that influence the contract's price.
>Delta: contract value changes based on asset price movement
>Gamma: delta changes based on asset price movement
>Theta: contract value changes based on time
>Vega: contract value changes based on implied volatility

Volatility is the hardest to measure, but typically it increases around earnings then falls off. Because of this, it's possible to buy a put or call ahead of earnings, have the price move in your favor, and still lose money.

>> No.55905163
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55905163

>>55905108
>Bullish? Buy calls
>Bearish? Buy puts
>Crabbish? Sell both

>> No.55905167

>>55905144
Oh, it's literally casino/sports betting type gambling.

>> No.55905169
File: 1.19 MB, 1041x768, Screenshot 2023-08-20 173634.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55905169

I losted a little $ today buying leveraged bobo shit like SQQQ and SOXS. Even muh YANG turned sour.

>> No.55905177

If I posted an all-time brokerage graph showing that I only make money and I'm up 638% in the past three years, would it make you quit buttcoins /biz/ and come work for me?

>> No.55905181

>>55905177
I don't have any shitcoin, how much ya paying?

>> No.55905192

>>55905108
Short and simple; Ex MSFT. Say you take the bet that it'll be 400 a share by 12/31/2023. If it does hey you win. If it doesn't then your fucked. How fucked depends on what happens to the stock price. People have offed themselves over bad plays.

>> No.55905194
File: 356 KB, 400x225, eacde620-5d1a-44b8-99d7-ab2dfda18971_text.gif [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55905194

>futures

>> No.55905210

The BOIL kang hath fallen. Who will step up in this time of need, to claim the shitpost throne?

>> No.55905211

>>55905144
>>55905163
don't encourage him, it's a crime that any broker would give him the ability to even trade options. The great filter is being able to research stocks, otherwise you are going to lose all your money being everyone elses baggie.

>> No.55905212
File: 37 KB, 320x293, 1657314448787.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55905212

>>55905177
If I did the same thing and showed you my portfolio is -57% would you hire me?

>> No.55905222

>>55905211
I just want to understand wtf people are talking about.

>> No.55905233
File: 1.02 MB, 1040x767, USE THAT BRAKE A LOT AND DONT LET THE WAGON PUSH THOSE HORSES IT COULD SPOOK EM.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55905233

>>55905210
I miss BOIL KANG even though he is a nigger. He was still funny sometimes, but without him I would not even know of BOIL and would not have known certain keys to working it. From the spark which he provided I learned so very much more. I will always hold a deep respect to him for those reasons, despite him being such a nigger.

>> No.55905240

>>55905167
Yes

>> No.55905242

>>55905211
>it's a crime that any broker would give him the ability to even trade options
Why? It's important to have exit liquidity

>tfw cleared for 200:1 leverage on forex trading and level 4 options
>understand all this shit easily
>can't be fucking profitable for some reason
Really gotta sort my shit out, I'm sitting on a potential goldmine (myself) but I'm a fucking idiot sometimes

>> No.55905246

>>55904901
Bobo go look at DXY 1yr chart and tell be with a straight face that you are bearish

>> No.55905254

>>55905242
because
>>55905192
>People have offed themselves over bad plays.

>> No.55905256

BTW, speaking of BOIL, it very briefly dipped into the sub 64 zone during after hours today. The little bit I recently boughted was sub 64. I will start slurping it a little bit in that zone, but still very cautiously because even if it goes up some before the fact, I expect lower prices will visit between now and my original sell target of Oct/Nov.

>> No.55905264

>>55905246
I have been and will remain extremely bearish for the foreseeable future, I don't want anyone to suffer I just have absolutely zero faith that this market is healthy and not just a parlor trick by market movers to prop it up until they are forced to pull the rug.

>> No.55905280
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55905280

>>55905254
I disagree. Every trade is executed by a person, and they need to do their own due diligence. By your logic, people shouldn't be allowed to buy GME or crypto then, either.
If someone enables these instruments on their account, does the paperwork, enters a trade, and gets heemed, it's their fault for not understanding the risks involved, how the asset works, or do enough research.

>> No.55905284

>>55905280
the bar for getting options is extremely low and only requires a certain amount of time and a certain amount of trades.

>> No.55905289
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55905289

>>55905211
>it's a crime that any broker would give him the ability to even trade options
Nah, it just results in a net more efficient allocation of capital :^)

>> No.55905299

>>55905169
You had 3 weeks to be short, what happened latebro?

>> No.55905301
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55905301

It's good retards are freely given things like options on which they beheem themselves. The most painful lessons are the ones we remember the most.

>> No.55905305

>>55905284
the casino is also free to enter.

>> No.55905326

>>55905264
It always has been anon. Line go up.

>> No.55905337
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55905337

>>55905301
Imagine her licking my cock the way she licks that ice cream cone (My cock is a lot smaller though)

>> No.55905342
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55905342

>>55905299
I was focused on natgas and once I sold it's just been sitting around waiting on the next buy in so I just wanted to fuck around with something while I wait and the charts look like they are solidly into that direction. I figure the last 3 weeks is a wakeup call to many invoosters and probably only the beginning of that which is to come. But maybe not, too.

>> No.55905343

>>55905326
how long before vanguard and schwab go after blackrock? it's a war before big investment firms for the last remaining scraps.

>> No.55905355

>>55905342
Makes sense. I had the same thought, decided to gamble on NVDA earnings though, went all in on SOXL on Friday. I was all in on SOXS on August 1st, sold way too early and beheemed myself on TMF when I saw rates spike and expected them to come down.
It has been a rough 3 weeks for me

>> No.55905378

>>55905343
Probably already are, Vanguard dropped ESG and blackrock has lost the GDP of entire countries in the last year.

>> No.55905395

>>55905378
>Vanguard dropped ESG
They just changed the name from ESG to DIE.

>> No.55905399
File: 1.27 MB, 1034x768, Screenshot 2023-08-20 173731.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55905399

>>55905355
Dang it. There's a whole lot of shit that makes sense getting fookered goin' on in this shit. I sold some of my SQQQ/SOXS during the HOOD overnights but I am partly expecting to wish I would have kept it. (((Who))) knows, I don't really like fuckin' with "the markets", it's all just random gambling. I much prefer safe stuff like natural gas.

>> No.55905405
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55905405

>>55905337
>Imagine her licking my cock the way she licks that ice cream cone
SHORTY SO SEDUCTIVE DANCIN ON ME
ITS THE WAY THAT SHE MOVE THAT'S MAKIN ME HORNY

>> No.55905433

most of my customers are female, and of that mostly latinas and asian
how do i profit from this?

>> No.55905452
File: 3.67 MB, 1280x720, 1684063471550243.webm [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55905452

>>55905433
Video tape them and upload the videos

>> No.55905473
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55905473

>>55905433

>> No.55905478

>>55905473
what a king

>> No.55905504
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55905504

>>55905433
>and of that mostly latinas and asian
SHORTY SO SEDUCTIVE DANCIN ON ME
ITS THE WAY THAT SHE MOVE THATS MAKIN ME HORNY

>> No.55905508
File: 2.92 MB, 350x620, 1675174693893352.webm [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55905508

>>55905504

>> No.55905521

>>55905395
Diversity, Inclusion, Estrogen?

>> No.55905543

Hold the line! Slurp them bonds!

>> No.55905581
File: 46 KB, 318x403, Screenshot 2023-08-21 at 8.43.49 PM.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55905581

My girlfriend of two years wants marriage but she sleeps 12-15 hours a day, works part time, racked up 3k in credit card debit, has $49k in student loan debt (which she didn't finish her degree) and can barely do her own laundry / clean up dishes 3 nights a week.
She is tall, thin, white, amber eyes and brunette. looks a lot like aubry hepburn body 9/10 ngl

but what do I do anons? Dump her

>> No.55905595

https://youtu.be/OJWJE0x7T4Q

>> No.55905601
File: 1.03 MB, 1038x768, Screenshot 2023-08-20 173804.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55905601

>>55905581
Tell the bitch to straight up or gtfo. Stop being a simp over looks which fade. Character is where it's at.

>> No.55905609

>>55905601
>straight
*straighten
I don't always have muh readin' glasses on and miss all kinds of shit.

>> No.55905635

>bank downgrades are bullish

>> No.55905637

>>55905581
Is her name Rachel and does she love Disney

>> No.55905642
File: 459 KB, 366x606, Screen Shot 2023-08-21 at 8.53.09 PM.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55905642

>>55905637
>Is her name Rachel and does she love Disney

>> No.55905656

>>55905642
Uh anon I regret to inform you I sexxed her but did not nut. I wish the bitch would get on thyroid meds so she didnt sleep so much. The poconos was pretty cool.

>> No.55905664

>>55905637
She loves Disney and fantasy / girl porn books, Sarah J. Maas shit. Which isn't terrible because the sex is great.
>>55905601
Truth about the character, she is kind and caring. love animals and shit but she is just lazy.

>> No.55905674

Nvidia is the next Tesla, but improved. Tesla is a shitty company that has promised an electrified semi and pick up truck, and hasn't delivered on either. Their roadster, which they promised would be out by now, has already been beat out by Rimac, who beat their roadsters specs and is actually on the road currently. Their cars are shitty - quality wise. The electric field has many companies in it, it isn't just them anymore. Yet, their stock keeps increasing. Why? Clown market. Unlike Tesla, Nvidia is a company that is at the top of their field and supplies the world with their hardware. They will be worth at least $1000 in the next couple of years, mark my words.

>> No.55905681
File: 116 KB, 828x828, 1649376129707.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55905681

My body is ready

>> No.55905682

>>55905635
Where we're going, we don't need banks (Just the Fed)

>> No.55905691

>>55905682
Id use a card with powells face on it

>> No.55905692

>>55905674
>Tesla
John Deere

>> No.55905703

>>55905692
Shit, I meant to put NVIDIA instead of Telsa. Anyway, you could make pretty close to the same statement and insert DE instead.

>> No.55905710

>>55905664
Iunno the sex was mediocre. She was so tight it just led to bruised dick. Also white girl butthole smell when she passed out in bed after the bar instead of getting in shower with me.

>> No.55905717

>>55905635
Bad news is good news yes

>> No.55905749

>>55904968
>J'ai la peau douce
>Dans mon bain de mousse
Alizee embodies feminine grace. She is the ultimate woman.

>> No.55905754

>>55905692
Why Deere?

>> No.55905764
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55905764

>>55905508
/tv/ jannies seething as usual

>> No.55905772

Honestly what's the downside of going long this week other than getting those calls too soon?
As long as you don't buy in before wednesday afternoon it should be fine?
It'll be fine.

>> No.55905773

>>55905595
https://youtu.be/muUZjovOFRg

>> No.55905776

>>55905674
they haven't made a good video card in 5 years

>> No.55905778
File: 777 KB, 1080x1903, Screenshot_20230822-001942-175.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55905778

Mumu bros, I don't feel so good...

>> No.55905787
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55905787

>>55905778
Wh....which banks?!

>> No.55905789
File: 256 KB, 550x880, 1565004423850.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55905789

>>55905692
>hes not a CAT man

>> No.55905794

>>55905778
there will be only one bank, the world bank by JP Morgan

>> No.55905797

>>55905794
This JP Morgan will slurp up every failed bank

>> No.55905799
File: 558 KB, 1170x1367, 1692309215537243.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55905799

>>55905581
>she sleeps 12-15 hours a day
>works part time
>racked up 3k in credit card debit
>can barely do her own laundry
>cant clean up dishes
She's depressed.

>> No.55905805

>>55905799
yeah sounds like what I did at one time before I became an alcoholic and taking it out on bar patrons.

>> No.55905807

Every time I drive down the street, one of the banks around here has a banner up front with a new name out front
Banking... it's fucked

>> No.55905809

>>55905778
Nooo not the hecking *checks notes* East Bummington Midtowne Bankerino!!!

>> No.55905820
File: 32 KB, 363x400, 1669852337650235.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55905820

>>55904932

>> No.55905827

>>55905799
>>55905581
>sleep 12-15 hours
Never talked with her about that?
That's either depression or some physical problem. In my case there was something wrong in my spine, which fucked my sleep and I needed way more without realizing the cause. But I'd say that is less likely the reason here.

Her wanting marriage is ... yeah, people want things they have an interest in, that are beneficial to them.

>> No.55905829

>>55905820
old playboy cartoons?

>> No.55905838

>>55905799
>>55905827
We have gone on 3 vacations this year and going to Europe this december. I have a 3 bed 3 bath house in a safe and quite neighborhood and provide her everything he needs. If she is depressed then idk what would make her happy desu.

>> No.55905854
File: 222 KB, 678x525, 1644095837503.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55905854

Taking four vacations a year is not financially wise
That IS financial advice

>> No.55905860

>>55905776
Yeah but they created ai

>> No.55905863

>>55905854
at least take one a year and go innawoods and reconnect your soul with the natural world.

>> No.55905867

>>55905838
Me thinking about the future death of my parents makes me depressed. These thoughts often come in when I'm laying in my bed and I could always cry. Even my own, the thought of an existing or not existing afterlife and the meaning of this.

It's not just material things that can make you depressed. Aging itself is more than enough to fuck your mind.

>> No.55905875

>>55905805
I can never find good bars when going on a date with a girl. I wander into one on my own? I turn into the free drink slut from talking with people.

>> No.55905877

>>55905860
well you better keep putting your money into skynet, it will make you money until judgement day. The shit that is happening in Ukraine is coming to a town near you soon but it will be automated.

>> No.55905880

>>55905863
I don't take vacation because I need to save my money so I can survive in America, and also I'm a piece of shit who doesn't deserve to take time off or have fun

>> No.55905881

>lost the password to my MT4 account
Fuck

>> No.55905890

>>55905875
I'll go into any bar and just chat anyone up and shoot pool, if they give me some shitty attitude I will start roasting them. I'll get told to leave, people will buy me drinks, they leave, or we get into a fight. Girls are simple, they either love you or hate you, and if they hate you you can always win them over and fuck them. It's like makeup sex but with a stranger.

>> No.55905898

>>55905880
we're all pieces of shit fren, there are very few good people.

>> No.55905905

>>55905877
Now that you mention Skynet. People think that we had this technological advancement in the last century because of aliens (area 51). What if it's actually because of a time traveller like in T1-T2, you know, the chip and arm?

>> No.55905913

>>55905905
I dunno, but terminator was just a movie about what scientists like Carl Sagan predicted would be the most likely outcome of artificial intelligence. And seeing the current state of corruption, greed, and evil that everyone just accepts as normal these days it seems pretty much guaranteed.

>> No.55905926

>>55905913
Yeah, if not even worse, since people are piling in on investing in AI. In the movie it is secret governmental research and development. Now AI is stockmarket meme everybody can make money on. Makes it even more ridiculous than in the movie.

>> No.55905939
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55905939

>>55905144
>Because of this, it's possible to buy a put or call ahead of earnings, have the price move in your favor, and still lose money.
Volatility effects the extrinsic value of options. High volatility is good for the value of contracts. This is why you want to be early when purchasing option contracts - so you can capture the volatility of an anticipated event that drives the contracts value up. In the event of earnings the volatility typically falls after the announcement is made as the market prices in the details, IV reverts back to its mean which crushes the contracts extrinsic value thus you can be in the money but still flat or negative in value
>>55905167
It's literally not like sports gambling at all. Is there risk involved? Yes. However there are so many technical indicators and information available to an educated trader that it can hardly be called 'gambling' and sports is a bad analogy because of how options expirations work. There is so much more room to work with than simply labeling it a gamble

>> No.55905958

>>55905778
So what are the chances that the USA credit rating will dip lower than A+? How bad will it get if does happen?

>> No.55905959
File: 82 KB, 576x768, 9a3b669b24850206b533c63890dfe221.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55905959

>>55905829
Good eye anon have another

>> No.55905960

>>55905939
People calling optionsplayers gambler are pussies. I don't do them because I don't want time against me. As the anon explained in his post, volatility is key and the shorter the timewindows (0dte), the more precise you have to be.

Earningscall options can be somewhat seen as a gamble, since you are betting on the outcome of an event. But essentially the whole fuckin stockmarket is a gamble and stockholders are speculators just as anybody else who's trading derivatives. Only the level of risk changes.

>> No.55905973

Why is Japan as retarded as to let water from Fukushima flow into the ocean. What is wrong with them? Have they gained some kind of tolerance towards radioactive radiation or is this some kind of psychological coping as to try to drag the whole world down on their level of radiation?

>> No.55905975
File: 26 KB, 743x420, Screenshot 2023-08-21 at 22-01-10 Markets Research Charles Schwab.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55905975

>>55905754
Not him, but take a look at this.

>> No.55905985
File: 119 KB, 1466x887, image.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55905985

Why yes, I will be shorting tech tomorrow.

>>55905939
I understand how int/ext value works, but I've always thought of IV as the missing variable that justifies the market price in the BS formula. That is, if market IV > expected IV, there is risk premium. In other words, you can compare IV across different expiries and strikes and know whether the market has inflated value on that. I guess volatility surfaces

>> No.55906002
File: 27 KB, 780x438, ysjjt98ave2y.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55906002

>>55905960
I agree with all of that. In the world of retail traders options investing poses too much risk and it ends up mystifying the practice

>> No.55906013

Day shift /smg/ said the night shifters are pussies and just talk about bonds all night. Is this true?

>> No.55906014

>>55906002
I saved this really shitty edit, you should feel bad.

>> No.55906021

>>55906013
it's the same people, just some have jobs and go to bed and a few unemployed bond autists argue with each other because it's the closest thing to intimacy that they will ever get.

>> No.55906023

Imagine not buying chinese stocks. Generational wealth opportunity

>> No.55906026
File: 121 KB, 553x466, 1692633774612591.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55906026

>>55906013
Night shift /smg/ is the real /smg/ for successful adults who have careers. Day shift /smg/ is for zoomer tourists from reddit.

>> No.55906028
File: 86 KB, 1138x1200, AAH2 - up.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55906028

>>55906014
Here's my edit.

>> No.55906034
File: 27 KB, 331x500, $_12~2.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55906034

>>55906026
Shut up bobo

>> No.55906044

>>55906026
/smg/ is to /biz/ as /trek/ is to /tv/, a handful of dedicated shitposters that always bump their threads to the top causing everyone not interested to seethe having to always see it when they refresh the catalog.

>> No.55906045
File: 164 KB, 1080x1303, Screenshot_20230225_182414_Messenger.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55906045

>>55905985
Yes that's correct insofar as I'm understanding you. This a is a good technical article that is expressing what you're referring to
https://tickertape.tdameritrade.com/trading/options-implied-volatility-probability-15125

>> No.55906051

>>55906026
The only difference is who the glowies and shills work for, honestly.

>> No.55906059
File: 391 KB, 1600x1200, 1681358567274419.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55906059

>>55906044
shit, this whole time I thought we were all from /nfl/ and liked the chicago bears.

>> No.55906069

>>55906026
you are full of shit, night shift is always drunks posting off topic shit and music.

t. guilty myself

>> No.55906074
File: 12 KB, 250x239, 1669339581046845.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55906074

>>55906014
That's hilarious. As I posted it I noticed how poorly drawn the dollar signs are. It's pretty far back in my folder though so you must have posted it at least 5 months ago >>55906014

>> No.55906083
File: 102 KB, 1024x576, ha ha ha.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55906083

Nighttime /biz/ = therapy group

>> No.55906085

>>55906045
Let's suppose I'm an idiot Redditor with a RH account who can't afford an NVDA/TSLA/APPL call. What would they buy instead? They wouldn't buy ITM because it's more expensive, they'd gamble on an OTM call, instead. They probably wouldn't get puts because line only goes up.
So given market psychology, wouldn't it make sense to write OTM calls with a short duration to feed the gamblers? Hedged, of course.

>> No.55906097

>>55906085
an ETF with the majority of it's holdings in those stocks so VOO, VTI, SPY

>> No.55906100

>>55906023
Sounds like a generational donation. Good luck ever getting that money out. I can tell you right now that the past generation failed to.

>> No.55906108

>>55906097
Reddit (and therefore most of retail) would not gamble options on indexes, would they? I thought they go for meme shit

>> No.55906111

>>55906108
I don't know reddit, but those stocks have high volume

>> No.55906127

>>55906108
>Reddit (and therefore most of retail) would not gamble options on indexes, would they?
they would and they do

>> No.55906128

I was watching the high/low ticker all day like a fucking autist, and today felt like a short squeeze though I can't be sure until tomorrow. But any losses that happen will reverse as soon as the holy faggot ndva stock does their faggot earnings so faggots can pump the market again just for it to go back to where we were last week.

>> No.55906129

>>55906085
There's a lot that could be said here. If historical volitility matched current IV levels for the underlying and it was low then I would certainly write those options you described. If it were opposite and historical vol matched the current high volatility then I wouldn't write them especially not without hedging. I would roll my capital into a different play until there is substantial mean reversion on those big stocks

>> No.55906137

>>55906128
Bro did you not hear about Baldurs Gate 3? Vidya is back and we're gonna need GPU's to run it properly.

>> No.55906146

>>55905985
Also I just realized that XLK is basically the same chart as QQQ and TQQQ, though the big difference is that XLK has the death cross formed, the others have not.
Actually, could you potentially do an near-dated arb trade between different etfs? I understand how it works but it seems difficult to execute, not like you can do it over a long period reliably

>> No.55906154

There are trillions of dollars that were printed in the last few years that aren't even in the market yet. Shit's never going down. It will just not outpace inflation unless it all ended up in Ukraine.

>> No.55906186

>>55906137

SEXO WITH LIZZARDMAN

>> No.55906194
File: 203 KB, 645x616, 1692595990669146.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55906194

>futures
https://youtu.be/xYQrPsyu-1s

bros, why are we dumping futures?

>> No.55906203

>>55906194
>posts yields
>Why are we dumping futures
????

>> No.55906210

>>55906194
Why don't you have a look at the stock market and take this yield chart, turn it upside down, and then compare.

>> No.55906212

>>55906203
Its clown world markets now, nothing makes sense

>> No.55906245

>>55906013
Well you can tell day shift /smg/ to suck my nuts.

>> No.55906252

Nvdia earnings will be the killshot of the AI mania. See you cocksuckers on Thursday

>> No.55906274

>>55906252
I'm not a cocksucker fren, please use insults that relate to me in the future otherwise I will be offended.

>> No.55906275
File: 335 KB, 563x479, 1687516408228829.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55906275

Y'all gonna buy SKLZ tomorrow, right?

>> No.55906289

J Bravo always shows up in my youtube feed, he's ridiculous but goddamn do I find him entertaining when he isn't shilling his instructional videos.

>> No.55906307

URANIUM
UROY
UEC
U

>> No.55906365

>>55905975
Interesting. Looks like a long-term play.

>> No.55906370
File: 192 KB, 1466x1082, Capture.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55906370

When the hell did Australia take the #1 spot? It's by a gigantic margin too, there's NO WAY any other company can beat that high score. NONE.

>> No.55906384
File: 348 KB, 1439x429, nostep.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55906384

Gonna need to see the next /smg/ thread as No Step on Snek Edition

>> No.55906393

>>55906194
Everyone is focusing on US regional banks but it's difficult for me to explain just how fucked the european financial sector is.

>> No.55906416

>>55904929
why? you got special info from Xi? currently he's doing fuck all for the economy and just try to save the currency, which is not great for companies

>> No.55906421

>>55905108
insurance.
who wins in the end? you buying or the the insurance company selling?

>> No.55906422

>futures
kek, up, down.

>> No.55906460

>>55906421
uhhh can you explain it in a video featuring godzilla fights? I just invested in your youtube career now get rich boy.

>> No.55906466
File: 1.19 MB, 968x998, 1683140911796388.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55906466

>>55906194
>Not even 3%
Pathetic. Let the bull market rule on. Fellow EUbros, how are we feeling today? Inflation fully under control, lower gas/gasoline prices, food prices are seeing a nice decrease. Oh and I almost forgot, I sure love the ECB and Mrs. Lagarde and her valiant efforts to tame this inflationary threat.
Btw, why in hegg are gas prices the highest they've been (even higher than during the "invasion"? Just as I predicted, using inflation to completely squeeze us dry, creating a bigger and bigger gap between the classes. The lower middle and lower classes are getting severely fugged

>> No.55906467
File: 23 KB, 517x519, bobo-black-hoodie-crying.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55906467

Can mumu please share some today? We got beclowned, beheemed, deheemed, and then massively reheemed all in one day yesterday.

MUMU CUT US SOME FUCKING SLACK PLEASE? Thank you kind sir

>> No.55906470

>>55906013
There are more markets than the US market, and most of the people are foreigners that don't belong in the thirdworld european country they are posting from. They are mostly poo's and I can't fault them for trying to bridge 1k year gap in 100

>> No.55906475
File: 193 KB, 1358x800, US Treasury Yield Curve 8-21-23.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55906475

Yields...

>> No.55906482

I'm looking for a cheap stock that can go up big.

>> No.55906488
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55906488

>>55905789
I cry every time

>> No.55906496
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55906496

>>55905789
Volvo is better
>>55906467
Have a Lum, m8. Come on m8, you should have expected some sort of rebuttal from mumus considering the index was massively oversold for an entire week

>> No.55906501

>>55906482
TSLY

>> No.55906529
File: 57 KB, 358x333, IMG_1022.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55906529

>>55906482
SQQQ

>> No.55906531
File: 345 KB, 2000x1000, Godzilla-king-of-the-monsters-Kong-skull-island-Godzilla-vs-king-kong.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55906531

>>55906460
Basically it's Kong vs Godzilla. Godzilla is massive and ancient, really strong, and by far has the advantage and is favored to win with his almost unmatched ancient powers.

Godzilla is the evil option seller, and wins most of the time. Kong is the underdog, the options buyer. Kons the good guy, and so he naurally usually loses most of the time. Vegas odds are on Godzilla.

However, every once in awhile, Kong surprises Godzilla out of the blue, when Godzilla is least expecting an attack. Godzilla gets over confident, complacent, and isn't always paying much attention to the weaker Kong.

Kong comes out of nowhere, and blindsides Godzilla with an unexpected and devastating blow. Godzilla could be winning all year, and get destroyed by a few killer blows in a row, bad timing, bad luck, and crazy unforseen circumstances if caught with his defenses down and he can be and sometimes is, destroyed by Kong. Good luck, and may the best beast win.

>> No.55906553

>>55906531
>madman actually did it
it was convoluted and extremely retarded but I appreciate the effort.

>> No.55906556
File: 29 KB, 645x559, d3c3d17794fcd9d2725ff1c6fca54295.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55906556

>>55906553
Yep, no problem

>> No.55906561

>>55906531
>thinks GODzilla was the bad guy
>thinks KingNIGGER was the good guy
Americans are demented.

>> No.55906571

>>55906556
good luck fren, don't do anything retarded like buy QQQ, but I would hold it if you have it.

>> No.55906573

>>55906561
Niggers can never be the bad guy in movies anymore, you know that

>> No.55906576
File: 553 KB, 1080x1746, Screenshot_20230822-002901_Brave.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55906576

You vill isolate in ze isolation camps
You vill inject ze jew cum serum
You vill be happy!

>> No.55906578
File: 176 KB, 979x979, 1692651477701627.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55906578

How fucked are we if yields keep dropping?

>> No.55906581

Oooooooooh nooooo
There goes Tokyo
Go go go GODZILLA WEEEEEEEEEEEEE

>> No.55906582
File: 72 KB, 714x1000, questions_also_ideas.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55906582

I think maybe another green day of lesser strength is in the cards today. That appears to be the feel barring news or bonds going wild again.
I am having too much fun with my new air compressor. I bought for inflating my car tires and small wood projects using pneumatic stapler and brad nailer. I then was dusting my office with manual duster and an idea occurred. I have unlimited compressed air now. No dust is safe on any surface of my house with this power at my disposal.

>> No.55906586

>>55906531
Also Kong might be broke after losing a few fights, but he can regenerate with time.

Bad trades of Godzilla can make him go into negative since he's selling options, that even a nuke maybe can't bring him back.

>> No.55906587
File: 11 KB, 225x224, pink-wojak-cyclops.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55906587

>>55906576
Here we go again

>> No.55906591
File: 299 KB, 2555x1388, 1662787646007194.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55906591

DEATH TO BEARS

>> No.55906593

>>55906573
??? In Antman Quantumania the evil guy is black? This, although in the comics he is white, lol. And the irony is his name
>KANG

>> No.55906595

>>55906582
watch the high low ticker, these fucking hedgie niggers don't fucking know what to do it's just sperging out. There is no method to the madness they literally don't know what to do other than spread everything. The great HEEMing is going to be great because they keep sticking their fingers into an infection.

>> No.55906599
File: 103 KB, 294x423, aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa588.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55906599

>>55906576
I DON'T WANT TO HEAR ABOUT COVID EVER AGAIN THOSE LOCKDOWNS AND LAYOFFS WRECKED MY FINANCES AND IT TOOK TWO YEARS TO RECOVER
>>55906595
yes that's why i think soft green I guess maybe crab. some jockeying and games of chicken to play.

>> No.55906600

>>55906578
bonds don't matter anymore, lockdown stimmies ccoming by october, jpow will buy the treasuries

>> No.55906610

>>55906599
i'm not a day trader so I don't care, but I see the profitability if I wasn't a risk averse in this market. All that I see are idiots throwing their money away like it was a TJ Max 80% off sale

>> No.55906617
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55906617

>>55906591
there is a smelliot wave club

>> No.55906620

>>55906591
This is my type of chart. LET THE MELT UP RESUME

>> No.55906621
File: 166 KB, 600x500, 1692665174217040.gif [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55906621

>>55906591
I want to believe.

>> No.55906625

>>55906576
kek they are gonna crash the economy with no survivors if they put the world on lockdown again. There's a bunch of businesses that still haven't recovered from last time.

>> No.55906627

>>55906591
>just put a b c on any peak and bottom and make some bullshit out of it
>he's thinking the stock market will actually go higher on shittier bank ratings and even US country rating.

>> No.55906628

I think I am drunk because I am listening to godzilla for the 3rd time and arguing with hedgie simps.

>> No.55906631

>>55906625
They are collapsing all of the banks and letting JP Morgan slurp them up at a discount. Now I remember why I became an alcoholic, I can't stand stupid people.

>> No.55906641

>>55906631
>can't stand stupid people.
why are you poasting here then smarty pants?

>> No.55906644

>>55906641
got used to you when I was a teenager.

>> No.55906649
File: 692 KB, 1600x960, 1663208727389322.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55906649

Pre-market opens in approximately 11 minutes. What will happen?

>> No.55906651

>mask mandates already back in Hollywood

fucks sake. Are they gonna force everyone everywhere from schools to retail wagie cagies to get jabs and boosters again? I'm gonna long medical stocks in that case. Maybe calls on amazon stocks too.

>> No.55906656

thankfully for everyone else I'm going to pass out soon, sorry for spamming. Nobody wants to hear sound financial advice from me. :(

>> No.55906657

>>55906576
I have zero faith in normalfags but I refuse to believe they'll pull the lockdown shit again successfully. I'd give it atleast another 50 years

>> No.55906661

>>55906649
short squeezes everywhere, TUP to 20

>> No.55906663

>>55906657
they will only enforce it against their poltical enemies, their sheep will do what they are told.

>> No.55906669

>>55906649
aftermarket was up last I checked. it will be green until nvidia because we have been reduced to one single stock carrying the 'market'

>> No.55906672
File: 186 KB, 472x472, bobo-business-suit.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55906672

What's a good safe boring financial planner tier portfolio to start off with of 3 to 6 tickers, for someone 19 years that is brand new to investing, and he is stacking $1k/month, and obviously won't retire for 40 more years?

Asking for a friend that's not a complete degenerate short term options gambler like myself

>> No.55906676

>>55906672
VTI
VXUS
your choice of small cap value stocks ETF.

>> No.55906677
File: 313 KB, 1692x1167, d62.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55906677

>>55906649
Green + crab = AAAAAAAAAAAAAA

>> No.55906680

>>55906576
You vill compare everything in terms of Godzilla and King Kong

>> No.55906685

>>55906482
Qualcomm is highly undervalued.
Amazon has dipped after retarded good earnings nd creating a new
Bayer is incredibly underrated
Basf is a bit risky but looks highly underrated and can 2x anytime
Novo Nordisk is the best stock in the entire market and because it is in Europe it is not retardly overpriced like Lilly

>> No.55906692

>>55906672
I'd also consider just having them just pay vanguard to manage a portolio, costs more but will probably get better results.

>> No.55906700

>>55906672
Theoretically you should buy a diversified ETF of small stocks as they are always undervalued and outperform the market.
Realistically the market is moved by Vanguard and Blackrock and if you just put money on NASDAQ you will have good returns until boomers retire on mass and pull their money out of the stock market

>> No.55906710

>>55906700
>>55906692
What's some small cap ETFs?

>> No.55906712

>>55906649
NVDA at $475, will retake ATH and pump to $500

>> No.55906720

>>55906672
SOXL, TQQQ, NVDL, TMF, UPRO, TSLY

>> No.55906729

>>55906710
VTV
I used AVUV but I sold that shit off when I saw the market was just gonna go down

>> No.55906731

my pre market on robinhood is doing a little something :)

>> No.55906737
File: 364 KB, 1170x2532, IMG_8466.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55906737

>>55906146
QQQ has other things besides tech, like PEP

>> No.55906744

Anything Vanguard is a safe bet, you won't get rich but you will get decent returns. It's the Walmart of investing until you get your sealegs arrr

>> No.55906747

>>55905581
unironically send her to her grandma to learn to become a proper wife

>> No.55906749

>>55906672
All you need to trade / buy is QQQ anon

>> No.55906750
File: 186 KB, 847x793, 1629223341270.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55906750

>>55906720
You got quite a good outlook on humanity I see, but yea we are talking 40 year timeframe. Also, just curious, is there a triple leverage complete tyranny and enslavement ETF by chance?

>> No.55906763

>>55905664
is she vaxxed?
are you vaxxed?

>> No.55906767

>>55906750
TMV is the only one I can think of, interest slavery forever, higher and longer forever

>> No.55906770
File: 353 KB, 697x756, 1647622618269.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55906770

VIXbros... I don't feel so good...

>> No.55906784
File: 708 KB, 2894x4093, 1684506821172467.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55906784

>Bobos get two weeks of free money and now go back to crying as mumus start pumping
A tale as old as time. Why would you guys expect some miraculous 20% dump? The indices fell like crazy on essentially no news and it wasn't enough for you? Greediness will be your outdoing.
Just promise me you won't short NVDA

>> No.55906785

>>55906767
How do you calculate dividends on these?

>> No.55906786

I just had a long winded explanation and deleted it all, it wouldn't have just hurt me but it would have hurt everyone else with positions that I hold. It's a doggy dog world and you'll just have to figure it out as you go.

>> No.55906789

65+% of all options are 0DTE
95+% of all options expire in less than 7 days
VIX has finally been killed as a hedge thanks to degen casino market.

>> No.55906798

>>55906770
high probability bet is to bet against the vix.
dont say you didnt know that.

>> No.55906800

>>55906785
There is no dividend on TMV, but there is on TLT if you're bullish on Long-term Treasuries making a comeback / rates getting cut soon. You take the annual divvie, (4.31%) Multiply by price of ETF, Divided by 12 (annual), and that is you monthly divvie.

>> No.55906809

TSLA up 3% premarket, will it hold until market open? I think not

>> No.55906810

>https://news.yahoo.com/atlanta-college-reinstates-mask-mandate-181901379.html

Fuuuuuucccckkkkk I'm gonna pull out the emergency stock buying right now before its too late

>> No.55906816

>>55906809
lol

>> No.55906820

>>55906810
Emergency rate cuts, QE infinite, stonks to the moon? There's no way they'd give us another COVID QE injection, right?

>> No.55906822
File: 810 KB, 490x806, on no news whatsoever.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55906822

>>55906784
>on essentially no news

>>55906798
Of course I do, I'm the one who was shilling shorting VIX long term in early 2022. But hedging ahead of Jackson Hole gives VIX longs tailwind.

>> No.55906827

>>55906800
Oh it says it's $.32 though. So that's what each share pays as a small divy or does that get eaten up by a fee?

>> No.55906828

>>55906809
musk capitulated on whatever twitter is called now, needs that gubmint cheese to stay afloat.

>> No.55906832

>>55906789
So SVIX is an unlimited money glitch?

>> No.55906836
File: 630 KB, 1398x1232, Terminate.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55906836

>> No.55906838

>>55906822
checked.
the vix is fucky in general.
here is a backtest that goes back to 3rd of January 2022.
it shorts the vix monday morning (in europe) and closes it at american market close on friday.

its 71% win rate.
even in a year like 2022, it made money.

>> No.55906843

>>55906827
Yes, 32 cents per share every month. If you're not trading in a tax-advantaged account, then you pay capital gains tax on your divvies

>> No.55906844
File: 40 KB, 655x509, fe6.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55906844

>>55906810
Fuck, everyday it starting to look like Alex Jones might be right after all

>> No.55906845
File: 155 KB, 1028x703, Screenshot_2023-08-22_10-21-59.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55906845

>>55906838
forgot the screenshot

>> No.55906849

>>55906838
So SVXY or SVIX?

>> No.55906850
File: 84 KB, 1079x1079, 1681856444541945.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55906850

if you want to make money I am certain this $0.17 glowie stock will be worth ~5-8 dollars in January, low risk high reward. I am definitely going to be gloating or getting shit on soon.

>> No.55906855

>>55906832
Because it is ruined as a hedge it is now its inverse is also similarly ruined. It is decoupled from the very things that made it any use to a portfolio. It is now a very weak signal tied to liquidity.
The market is steadily eliminating anything that could help with sharpe.

>> No.55906857
File: 31 KB, 627x612, 2023-08-22 10.26.35.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55906857

>>55906832
>SVIX
extremely inefficient compared to shorting futures

>>55906849
both suck, short futures

>>55906838
congratulations on discovering the effects of contango. Or just set "adjust for contract changes" in TV on VX1!.

>> No.55906877
File: 1.25 MB, 225x350, 1685128251506414.gif [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55906877

>>55906822
>Downgrade of some banks
>China FUD
Yeah, essentially no news. The market is largely unaffected. There was certainly no reason for tech to fall (and some didn't, like NVDA)

>> No.55906879

>>55906877
I wasn't arguing with you, I was making fun of you for saying the line for the 2300th time this month.

>> No.55906885
File: 98 KB, 1029x781, Screenshot_2023-08-22_10-28-39.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55906885

>>55906849
well, by shorting the vix on monday first hour of vix (published by cboe)
and closing it on friday end of market,
you get a similar return as svxy and svix.
but buying the svxy or svix you dont risk blowing up as much.
but all in all, the give a similar curve.
the flats that you see on the white line graph are because of bank holidays, I didnt take them into account.

in my opinion, buying the svxy or svix is like buying the SPY on leverage except you dont get liquidated and your returns are a little bit smoother.

>> No.55906910

>>55906857
how about blowing up outright shorting futures?

>> No.55906913
File: 143 KB, 998x1113, 1692481539015436.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55906913

It's only a matter of time before more financial institutions collapse at these interest rates. You can't beat the double top, that's Bidenomics!

>> No.55906922

>>55906910
Your fault for overleveraging, you know how much VIX and VIX futures might spike, you should plan accordingly.

>> No.55906936
File: 348 KB, 2560x1440, 1685126397524881.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55906936

>>55906879
Might have been the most written line in /smg/ last week. Everyone panicking because the index fell by 5% on "essentially no news".

>> No.55906937

>>55906922
checked. still, say you are 1x, with futures, you can still blow up. with svix svxy, it can go to zero and will probably come back up.

>> No.55906941

>>55906913
Kick the can down the road, more liquidity for longer
https://www.federalreserve.gov/financial-stability/bank-term-funding-program.htm

>> No.55906947
File: 58 KB, 971x846, 1634595986838.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55906947

I know alot of things. But the more I know, the more I realize how little I actually know.

>> No.55906948
File: 175 KB, 600x379, IMG_0901.gif [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55906948

>SQQQ is sub-$20 again
I think I’m gonna slurp, bros.

>> No.55906950

>>55906922
can you show me a backtest, showing the returns are actually better using the method you are proposing?
i know some fund blew up in 2018 and 2020 so, even these etfs are not that good all things considered.

fucking around with the vix is more headache than profit to be fair.

>> No.55906959

>>55906922
besides, now there are 0dte degenerates, fucked up options market, its just a mess right now.
i have some pretty high probability forex strategies, ill probably stick to those. even buying bitcoin and shorting some crypto shitcoins is less dangerous.

>> No.55906984
File: 163 KB, 680x461, 1596725007633.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55906984

bull trap. nvda earnings will fuck this market.

>> No.55906988

>>55906937
>say you are 1x
no, with current VIX levels you should be more like <0.5x, if you put lots of money in it it should be more like 0.2x, 1x is overleveraged for shorting VIX futures long term, if I did 1x I could get margin called if VX1! hit 32.7, which is a common enough occurrence. If you can get margin called at 32.7 you are stupid and don't know how to manage your risk at all

>with svix svxy
Short VIX ETPs have shown that they can fail catastrophically when VIX spikes, although they've lowered their leverage to avoid this happening again. "Volmageddon" was an ETP problem, for VIX futures traders it was just another spike to 38. But using SVIX or SVXY is pointless, the point of shorting VIX futures is to outperform SPY, to be way green and at ATH when equities still haven't gone back up in years. SVXY didn't reach pre-covid highs until 3 years later.

>>55906950
see the graph, that's your backtest >>55906857

>> No.55907011

>>55906877
Top is in

>> No.55907012

>>55906988
Isn't the chance much more high for the VIX to spike around sept/oct given that it has been suppressed all of the summer? Wouldn't institution buy cheap insurance against a potential drop in stock due the combination of cycle and strong first year run?

>> No.55907016

>>55906984
Pretty sure there are like 2 new Bill Hwang's that are just relentlessly painting the tape with NVDA, TSLA, and META

>> No.55907026
File: 45 KB, 975x613, 2023-08-22 11.07.45.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55907026

>>55907012
desu I don't really buy the whole "suppressed" story, VIX was at lower levels pre-covid, and now it's going back to lower levels. The 2022 bear market masked the down trend of VIX so it seems sudden, but it was there and it's playing out like the previous recoveries.

Either way it's always possible that it will spike like it has spiked before, so if you short you should assume that it will.

>> No.55907030
File: 80 KB, 1022x925, Screenshot_2023-08-22_11-08-45.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55907030

>>55906988
so, you just wait till expiry and go to the next contract and short it and that contract is most probably priced higher and thats it?

anyway, i dont have access to vix futures, maybe later I will allocated some money to that.

right now, i have a decent curve as well. less bumpy than the short vix strategy.
picrel is what you see is what you get - rollover fees.

besides, it handles black swans like 2020 and 2008 way better.

>> No.55907034

>>55906948
Buy the dip bobo

>> No.55907036

>>55907030
didnt mean rollover, just swap fees.

>> No.55907037

>>55907012
>Wouldn't institution buy cheap insurance against a potential drop in stock due the combination of cycle and strong first year run?
You would short the futures instead. I am not kidding when I say degen gambling casino market has finally finished the job of killing off VIX that ZIRP started.
Pretty soon the only asset classes will be SPY, SPY futures short, and like something no one really cares about like shiny rocks. Buttcoin, real estate, etc. are just derivatives of those first two. Buttcoin is just a shitbeta measure of NASDAQ inflows. Real estate (including CRE) is just shitbeta follows on rollover rates.
VCs and PE have ruined private small business investment.

>> No.55907046

>>55907030
and it has nothing to do with vix or stocks.
its pure forex.
forex is underrated here on biz

>> No.55907048
File: 27 KB, 649x348, 2023-08-22 11.10.34.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55907048

>>55907030
>so, you just wait till expiry and go to the next contract and short it and that contract is most probably priced higher and thats it?
Yeah basically you just let the contract rollover when it expires. Even an individual contract will have a downtrend compared to spot VIX because any contract goes from being close to what I call the "VIX horizon" (VIX price expectation for the distant future) which is a fairly average price to sliding towards spot VIX at expiry which is usually lower than that VIX horizon. Rolling over to the next contract just lets you enjoy the downtrend more, and when you rollover you lock in contango gains, as in the difference between the two contracts is something that adds up as a gain, so you want to lock in the greatest possible difference.

Btw this makes it difficult to slurp VIX spikes because if VIX remains elevated for a while (and therefore be in backwardation) you might lock in losses every time you rollover.

What's your top graph strat?

>> No.55907065

Uh sirs
Why did the Shit & Piss downgrade banks

>> No.55907071

>>55907048
Do you have a main job or do you just mostly trade vix futures for a living?

>> No.55907086

>>55907048
its just classic long strong currencies and short weak currencies.
in it i threw in a little bit of asia, a little europe and a little bit of north america.
nothing fancy really.
one of them is a chfeur, i thought one day looking at a graph, "one would have to be a retard to short this" so I do the opposite. then I found out there was an ETF for exactly this by Wisdomtree,
it lets me do as little as possible and still expect a green month.

>> No.55907091

>>55907086
finding out about the etf just validated my idea in a way, I dont actually use it. I just put in individual positions as any forex trader would.

>> No.55907097
File: 54 KB, 616x680, 1596109720623.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55907097

>>55907065
To be honest nothing has changed since march. bonds are shitting the bed and regional banks will have to consolidate again. While big banks are fine, they will be the one to foot the bill.

>> No.55907107

>>55907048
Are you the VIX Futures market maker pigs poster?

>> No.55907112

>>55907071
I haven't traded VIX futures (except for my recent long position) in over a year because I think it's potentially very dumb to short VIX below 20, even though it still works. what I've done this year beats doing that by a lot. It's not such a safe strat for a short term horizon trader, but if you're the kind who just wants to park money and don't mind being in the red for a year it's solid. I have a job though, I ran out of money last year (I had an online business for 14 years but it was always barely enough and in 2022 sales were declining too much) so I had to get a real job and I only have minor savings, though my portfolio is 4x from my initial trading deposit.

>>55907086
I see, interesting, that does sound pretty easy. I'm currently shorting EURUSD.

>> No.55907118
File: 264 KB, 1802x934, 2022-01-16 22.14.42.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55907118

>>55907107
No. I used to post this pic in early 2022 but I haven't focused on this strat much since then.

>> No.55907121
File: 1.09 MB, 720x405, javzilla.webm [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55907121

>>55907046
Rest of the week, DXY gonna top out on it's DCH, but will turn down as early as Friday or more likely next week. Faggots have no idea what is coming. Will continue next leg down to 0.90 for next few months.

BRICS will disappoint initially, but will surprise next week.

>> No.55907125

>>55907086
I don't know how you can trade forex with the current retarded central banks. I mean, if you take their retarded path, then yeah it's straight forward, but at some point there will be a turn and that will fuck things up.
Everyone expected Lagarde to continue hiking, hence took a short on dxy, but in the end, she pussied out while the EU inflation is still at 5 % lmao

>> No.55907142
File: 44 KB, 1029x456, Screenshot_2023-08-22_11-43-06.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55907142

>>55907112
i dont know if youre swimming upstream or not on eurusd by shorting it.
you better have a plan on that one.
looks almost like we had a dip a year ago. if the general market remains bullish, you might want to take care.
eurusd and bitcoin are moving together these days.

>> No.55907144

>>55907121
how brics will surprise given their shit economy? China only care about its currency and has done fuckall to support its current economy downtrend

>> No.55907147

>>55907125
well, i dont really "trade it" i just try choose the path of least resistance.

>> No.55907150
File: 54 KB, 1030x607, Screenshot_2023-08-22_11-47-21.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55907150

>>55907142
BTCUSD and EURUSD being bros

>> No.55907159

>>55907118
ay thanks
hope you can get back to working for yourself.

>> No.55907169

>>55907159
Yeah I already asked my job to let me work intermittently so I can work on my own projects. But desu in either situations you do things you don't want to do, if I work part time for a company then I can skip the things I don't want to do on my own projects because I can afford to.

>> No.55907170
File: 132 KB, 568x1280, 1692541765594170.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55907170

baking

>> No.55907172

>>55907112
Was your business related to the markets or something completely different?

>> No.55907177

>>55907144
brics conference today

>> No.55907179
File: 37 KB, 500x500, amishpepe.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55907179

>>55907170
I want a snickers pie, or something like a brownie with Reese's peanut butter cups in it, can you bake something like that?

>> No.55907180
File: 752 KB, 848x675, fdgdfg.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55907180

>>55907168
>>55907168
>>55907168
>>55907168

>> No.55907183

>>55907177
the west...
has fallen

>> No.55907185

>>55907172
Completely different, audio software. I only started caring about the markets 3 years ago when I had a few thousand dollars from sales that I didn't immediately need and felt I should do something with them.

>> No.55907191
File: 67 KB, 429x559, 1681908976706197.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55907191

>>55906466
Taxation on fuel has fallen, this is entirely the market.
Particularly Iran attacking and taking over foreign oil tankers pirate style in the Strait of Hormuz is a driver in the last half year. 20% of the worldwide oil is going through there.
This is applauded and supported by all the BRICS nations, India, China and Brasil get very cheap oil in Russia and Iran and don't have to compete for oil anymore. At the same time OPEC is reducing oil exports to get a higher price per barrel, while the costs of getting it out of the ground stay the same.

BRICS is squeezing the west, reducing their profit margins, thus getting more competitive.
Meanwhile the Gorilla in the room, climate change, wrecks all the economies, particularly those with high technology.

I think in astronomy this is called "the great filter".

>> No.55907200
File: 837 KB, 2048x2536, 1688420290026982.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55907200

>>55907179
peanut butter pie

>> No.55907793

>>55906496
>He posted lum
HOW DARE YOU CURSE US, SER

>> No.55907815
File: 847 KB, 1221x1512, Resized_20230707_155449.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55907815

>>55907191