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55830568 No.55830568 [Reply] [Original]

bitcoin investment is based on the following ideas:

1. BTC price will continue to go up forever (fixed supply + inflation of fiat)
2. BTC price grows over long term but is subject to the 4 year pump and dump cycle.
3. Therefore buyers must hodl asset forever ("never selling" mentality) to capture most gains

BTC is giving diminishing returns with each cycle. maybe this cycle will give 4x and the next 2x.

so imo there are 2 possibilities:

>BEST CASE:
- BTC volatility and returns slowly dminish over time and it becomes a stable slowly growing asset like an index fund highly correlated to tech (already started?)

>WORST CASE:
it continues the 4 year halving pump and dump cycle with high volatility but diminishing returns.

in both cases, i think investors will get bored. they will move toward assets that can give higher returns like altcoins.

this already started. the last bullrun didnt have a blow off top. instead a double-top. this was because most the liquidity went away from BTC into memecoins, dogcoins and NFTs so the volatility got spread out over a longer duration depending on the emergence of trends and sentiment within the crypto space.

we should expect this trend to continue and to be even stronger in the next bull run. however how this works out depends a lot on the SEC case around securities.

my feeling is the next bull run:

1. BTC will do OK, close to previous ATH or maybe slightly above.
2. most previous cycle altcoins will under perform or achieve parity with BTC returns (3-6x)

> i wanted to post this on plebbit but i dont have enough good boy points so posting here. the aim is to have some discussion around future narratives but i am not expecting anything since this board is very fickle and the only threads that get traction are bait threads.

>> No.55830579

The main problem is people still cant agree what Bitcoin actually is.

It used to be anti-establishment, anti-institutions, payment system

Now its pro-establishment, pro-institution, digital gold.

>> No.55830592
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55830592

>>55830579
thanks

tbf i think its just a sign of a "maturing" asset.
people actually didnt know what it was for to begin with as it does quite a few things but doesnt do any one of them particularly well.

fiat is a better currency, gold is a better (arguable) commodity and so on. but it does have some qualities that makes it survive like decentralization and self custody. it kind of straddles a few areas.

but its now being absorbed by tradfi and becoming a legitimate asset or "commodity" as SEC called it. so we can expect it to behave more like one going forward.

>> No.55830596

double-top was brown eyed tricks from chinkies and kikes, not anything intrinsic to the market.

>>55830579
no, that's just how late adopters cope with the fact that bitcoin is the only thing that will ever be accepted by the world despite being the most decentralized and anarchistic thing in the market.

>> No.55830605

>>55830568
The hlaving narrative likely causes very bullish months now.
I expect 50k at the halving easy.
Then sell off and crab summer like this.
And then we will see what happens eoy 2024, with fed cutting rates we might see a real bullrun, i play to buy in again in summer after selling a lot at the halving.
In any case people always frontrun expectations.
Dont hold the bag in 2025.
2026 we will see what of your cases will happen.

>> No.55830613

>>55830596
>most decentralized and anarchistic thing in the marke
>mining controlled by the usa
>tainted coins all around
>need kyc for non p2p fiat trades
>fiat maxis are asskissing zog at any chance

>> No.55830617

>>55830605
>2026 we will see what of your cases will happen.

fwiw i think the best and healthiest thing that could happen would be for ETH to outperform BTC and drag alts along with it. in terms of for us short term investors.

BTC dominance is not good especially now that the asset is being absorbed into tradfi with ETF coming along and diminishing returns.

>> No.55830619

>>55830613
>need kyc for non p2p fiat trades
and you get surveilled anyway since they track wallets to kyc
So if you p2p with the wrong person you have tainted Bitcoi

>> No.55830628
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55830628

The better question is, why is XMR worth so little despite doing everything BTC originally intended to do but never ended up doing

>> No.55830634

>>55830628
>why is XMR worth so little despite doing everything BTC originally intended to do but never ended up doing

1. first mover advantage
2. looking at crypto market pragmatically its fairly clear the utility does not drive price.

there is a strong sentiment/speculative narrative behind xmr but also its not an easy asset to purchase and also some doubts around its true circulation (i think)

>> No.55830642

>>55830579
It has never been pro-establishment. Altcoins are far more pro-establishment since the vast majority are centralised securities used by kike VCs to scam retail in a way they can't do with BTC. In fact a lot of the anti-BTC rhetoric originates from people connected to these VCs.

BTC hasn't really changed, it was always digital gold and was always a digital currency, it just needs L2 for that.

>> No.55830644

>>55830605
>>55830619

yeah there is a definitely a whole other argument around regulations, taxes and kyc

we've already seen binance be pushed out of most of europe.

but for me its too unclear how that will play out and i'm convinced the previous cycle participants are still present in enough quantity to give us another cycle that is at least 80% same as the previous one despite all the macro stuff which can disappear in an instant

>> No.55830649

>>55830596
>double-top was brown eyed tricks from chinkies and kikes, not anything intrinsic to the market.

same difference
"the market" is people. and there is always some that have 95% of the influence and power.

>> No.55830653

>>55830568
>I wanted to post on plebbit
Then post. Plebbitapp.eth.limo
Plebbit.com
It's a decentralized Reddit. There's also a 4chan client.
>Best case of slow indices like rise
This is most likely given rhetoric and perception shifting in large asset managers like Blackrock, Fidality, Schwab . Markets will peak likely on the next lowering of rates. Crypto serves as a capital sink to nullify inflation of traditional assets like property, gold, server and other commodities. It also serves as a form of bred and circus for the masses to keep them occupied and one step from criticizing the wider financial system.

>> No.55830654

>>55830642
>centralised securities
You are using a usa government narrative here
Not saying that most altcoins are scam, or just open pump and dumps.
But things like xmr, stables especially dai, aave, etc etc eth to enables those are great
And note how the usa government suppots Bitcoin, while lashing out against decentralized stables and finance

>> No.55830672

>>55830568
>I wanted to post on plebbit
Then post. Plebbitapp.eth.limo
Plebbit.com
It's a decentralized Reddit. There's also a 4chan client.
>Best case of slow indices like rise
This is most likely given rhetoric and perceptions shifting in large asset managers like Blackrock, Fidality, Schwab to positive appraisal of markets. This is also evidenced in shifting tones in mainstream media on btc from "its bad for the environment" to suddenly "it's carbon neutral" and is "esg compliant".
Markets will peak likely on the next lowering of rates. Crypto serves as a capital sink to nullify inflation of traditional assets like property, gold, server and other commodities. It also serves as a form of bread and circus for the masses to keep them occupied and one step from criticizing the wider financial system

>> No.55830681

>>55830653
>This is most likely given rhetoric and perception shifting in large asset managers like Blackrock, Fidality, Schwab . Markets will peak likely on the next lowering of rates. Crypto serves as a capital sink to nullify inflation of traditional assets like property, gold, server and other commodities. It also serves as a form of bred and circus for the masses to keep them occupied and one step from criticizing the wider financial system.

interesting perspective thanks
there is definitely a circus element to crypto. part of the get rich quick pyramid scheme timeline a lot of younger people are living in

>> No.55830708

>>55830642
If Bitcoin ETF gets approved, wouldn’t it be pro-establishment? Also, my impression was that satoshi created Bitcoin as a digital currency. How good of a currency it is I think is up for debate. But that narrative has never changed. But didn’t the digital gold narrative come last cycle? Is there anything in the whitepaper that mentions it being digital gold?

>> No.55830716

>>55830708
>Abstract. A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online
payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a
financial institution. Digital signatures provide part of the solution, but the main
benefits are lost if a trusted third party is still required to prevent double-spending.
We propose a solution to the double-spending problem using a peer-to-peer network.
The network timestamps transactions by hashing them into an ongoing chain of
hash-based proof-of-work, forming a record that cannot be changed without redoing
the proof-of-work. The longest chain not only serves as proof of the sequence of
events witnessed, but proof that it came from the largest pool of CPU power. As
long as a majority of CPU power is controlled by nodes that are not cooperating to
attack the network, they'll generate the longest chain and outpace attackers. The
network itself requires minimal structure. Messages are broadcast on a best effort
basis, and nodes can leave and rejoin the network at will, accepting the longest
proof-of-work chain as proof of what happened while they were gone.

>> No.55830762

>>55830716
Thanks. I’ve read the whitepaper before and remembered it being a p2p cash system. I’m not sure where the store of value narrative came from though. I don’t think that was satoshis vision for Bitcoin. Can currencies be used as a store of value?

>> No.55830905

>>55830762
Yes of course currencies are store of value

>> No.55831195
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55831195

>>55830568
>3. Therefore buyers must hodl asset forever ("never selling" mentality) to capture most gains
Did you even think that through? In what world is le hodl the way to capture the most gains?
Consider:
Le hodler buys coin at $1. It pumps to $2. Diamond hands, never selling. It dumps back to $1. Now, it pumps to $10. Le hodler has 10x'd.

Now consider:
Anon buys a coin at $1. It pumps to $2, he sells for a 2x. The coin dumps to $1, anon buys back in with twice the amount. Coin pumps to $10. Anon made a 20x.

Diamond hands hodling like a redditor will ensure maximum safety, not profit; and even then you have to fucking sell in the bull and buy in the bear. The 4 year cycles are predictable.

>> No.55831226

>>55830568
Bitcoin really is digital gold. It will be a hedge against inflation but the days of huge returns are over. Crypto as a sector is where the huge returns will be but even that has only a few more cycles left before regulation turns it into something more like the S&P 500.

>> No.55831263

>>55830628
st, utility's a must, but don't expect it to rev the price engine.
2, XMR's all cloak and dagger for its token, while privacy protocols go multichain stealth mode

>> No.55831270

>>55831195
OP here

you mixed up investor with trader.
they're not the same thing

>> No.55831285

>>55831270
If you're in the market, you're long the market. You're still a market participant whether you want to admit it or not. Your trading frequency is irrelevant.

>> No.55831410

>>55831270
Explain the difference to me, because as far as I can tell the 'investor' you describe is just a lazy inefficient trader.

>> No.55831518

>>55831195
>just time the top and bottom of the market bro

>> No.55831551

>>55831410
investors just dca for long term stable returns. they know that over the long term it beats trying to time the market.

a trader is a smart ass gambler who thinks they can beat the market and eventually seppukus themselves.

there is a middle ground.
but thats only for hedge funds who have inside information.

>> No.55831606

>>55831518
You don't have to time the tops and bottoms. You don't have to go all in on every trade. You just need to buy lower than you sell on average. It's really not difficult, people like >>55831551 seem convinced it is.

>>55831551
You seem to have a poor grasp on what knowledge is. Le hodlers can apparently 'know' they will profit somehow without selling, but those who trade frequently are gambling? How shallow is your understanding of economics?
Hodling is fine, just don't spread the illusion it's a method to maximise gains; because that's disingenuous and patently untrue.

>> No.55831698

>>55831285
>Your trading frequency is irrelevant.
It makes a massive difference to how profits are taxed in Australia. Literally double the capital gains tax.

>> No.55831705

>>55831698
It doesn't matter how you get taxed

If you're in the market, you're long the market.

>> No.55831713

>>55831705
that's still a price of 170k who would complain about that

>> No.55833085
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55833085

>>55831226
>days of huge returns are over
I Agree, but the ETF will change the dynamics of the diminishing returns process. Especially if BTC is actually digital gold.

>> No.55833295

>x100
>x30
>x8
Those three numbers are wrong.

>> No.55834664

>>55830628
First, utility's a must, but don't bet on it to pump the price.
Secondly, XMR's all cloak and dagger for its token, while privacy protocols go multichain stealth mode

>> No.55836149
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55836149

>>55830568
>in both cases, i think investors will get bored. they will move toward assets that can give higher returns like altcoins.
In all honesty, this is exactly how I feel towards BTC. I've obviously allocated around 50% of my portfolio on Bitcoin but I feel like alts do have the potential to give better returns in the long run simply because they can always have more narratives up their sleeves. Hell, we even had a literal memecoin rally with Pepe earlier this year, so the even the clown market can't be fully discarded yet.

In my case, though? I'd rather just stick to not only having BTC, but also other L1 alts for diversification purposes. Ethereum is a no brainer. Feeling like BNB might also give a 2-5x from here. And I've also got some Kava which has the potential to carry Cosmos now that they're convincing people like the Quickswap team to build stuff on-chain since they can just build it with Solidity.

>> No.55836174

>>55836149
Don't you think having like 50% of your folio on bitcoin leaves you a great spectrum to have pottential fails? i mean not judging but I rather just gamble out a 20% at maximun, you know that's what my papa said play safe stay safu.

>> No.55836181

>>55830568
I'm just accumulating as much as I can for now. don't think we'll ever get to buy once the halving narrative really starts making everyone feel bullish

>> No.55836219

>>55833295
you think so? I feel they're pretty close to reality

>> No.55836221

>>55836149
ye l1's are based even though who knows BASE might just revitalize the l2 market once again. i doubt it too l2's are useless.
>kava
>eth
>bnb
unironically great folio. upboated.

>> No.55836240
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55836240

>>55836174
I don't think so because we've already went through plenty of black swan events last year. This year we had to deal with the whole $CRV hack potentially destroying DeFi as a whole and in practice it didn't really affect the market as much as you'd expect.

To me, this means that pretty much all weak holders have already capitulated and the only ones left holding are those who have a deeper understanding of the market, knowing that it was all a temporary event.

>> No.55836249

>>55830634
Bitcoin is used to launder money and do illegal shit with. This has been true time and time again in many scenarios and many contexts. And monero makes that x100 times easier without that much risk. It's faster. It's 100% anonymous. Can actually be used to buy regular goods. It's unironically the solution to the ailments Bitcoin itself brought to the table.

>> No.55836261
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55836261

>>55836174
In a world where banks collapse in 24 hours or less the global economy seems to have stagnated with wages severely lagging behind rent and groceries and whatnot, we truly do live in a world of terror. And a world of terror requires extremist actions, like putting your life savings in Bitcoin.

This is a valid move.

>> No.55836271

>>55836149
Kava is good but it won't bring back Cosmos. Not by a long shot. I believe they'll just migrate to Ethereum and set up shop there with bridges somewhere else once they realize their mistake (betting for the underdog that isn't a real underdog but a dyingdog).

>> No.55837441

>>55830579
it's a failure, that's what it is.

>> No.55838083

>>55836271
Cosmos might still have a shot anon, It integrates to what DePINs is bringing to the space with physical infrastructure tokenization alongside Polkadot.

>> No.55838443
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55838443

>>55830568
Bitcoin's like digital gold, good for inflation protection, but those massive gains aren't gonna happen like before. The real big profits are in the wider crypto world, though even that's got a limited time before rules start changing things. In short, DePIN is the story that'll shape the future.

>> No.55838466

>>55836261
This is where DePIN fits right in, offering a chance to reshape this system with decentralized control.

>> No.55838681

>>55831606
Not everyone no lifes staring at charts like you. Considering how tiny the crypto marketcap is its entirely possible institutional onvestments flood in quickly pricing you tf out

>> No.55838880

>>55838681
Bitcoin wont receive major institutional adoption until centralized bitcoin custody solutions are time tested for retail and institutions. Self custody is a joke that has too many faults for your average investor