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55829773 No.55829773 [Reply] [Original]

what's the bear case? just tell me the bear case. i want to know what the bear case is. why shouldn't i invest right now? what is the most convincing bear case you can give? what is the fucking bear case? what is the FUCKING bear case?

>> No.55829812

>>55829773

Well the neutral case would be it continues to be outperformed by btc and others so drops down the rankings as features continue to never materialize and token sales continue.

I guess bear would be some more lower price discovery below $5 now that the ~$7 price has been established as the new norm. If i wanted to be really pessimistic we could see defi generally continuing to be a flop and low usage and space development means the network remains a bit of a fake economy and operating costs and token sales begin to collapse it all.

I think the former is more likely, with us and most alts lagging the market when it turns around next year and the overall peak being disappointing with many alts, maybe including link, not surpassing their past highs.

>> No.55829828

>>55829812
highly unlikely btc ever hits its ATH again imo

>> No.55829830

>>55829828
That seems like a completely bizarre opinion to have. Why?

>> No.55829836

>>55829830
why would it? who's gonna buy 70k btc? lol

>> No.55829855

>>55829836
People who want an ultimately deflationary non-fungible asset. It's nothing too complicated. With the reducing output, fraction that gets lost and the current value $70k is beyond certain. You give the cost of a whole bitcoin as if people are buying "a bitcoin" to use it in a transaction and $70k is too much. No-one cares how much of a bitcoin they have, they're converting their money into a hard asset.

>> No.55829864

>>55829855
btc isn't deflationary, it's inflating every day from miner dumps. also it's not a hard asset. you are confusing it with gold

>> No.55829873

>>55829836
People just like you have been saying similar things each cycle and have been proven wrong. This time it's different though because its you saying it and you're special

>> No.55829882

ok enough btc coping
get back to chainlink please

>> No.55829891

>>55829864
I clearly said "ultimately". Everyone knows it has a finite number and with halvings and the substantial token loss that's actually quite close. Bitcoin is legitimately a harder asset than gold unless you're being a brainlet literally thinking one is hard to the touch.

Will BTC always be a valued asset? I dont know, but will it grow in value for the next several years at least? Without a doubt. I think it will probably end up oscillating more or less around $200k.

>> No.55829901

>>55829882
Whatever the bear case is its not worth risking anyway. The bear case is gambling on the timelines. I don't want to do that and so am all un Link. Plus I get staking rewards and Build rewards sonits not so bad. Its only bad if you listen to fudders all day. They're just dickheads and can't win this. We won.

>> No.55829905

>>55829901
So4ry I'm phonepsting

>> No.55829906

>>55829891
what it's gonna do is oscillate around 20-40k

>> No.55829909

>>55829882
It goes sideways for another x years and gets outperformed by BTC until you die

>> No.55830023

>>55829828
New desu in the block spotted. You sure have no idea how the crypto market moves. Keep wallowing in your ignorance while chads scoop up btc and sensible alts like AstraDAO. Hfsp

>> No.55830046

>>55829773
>that id
7k is fud

>> No.55830147

>>55829773
>7K Fud
ITS HAPPENING

>> No.55830173

>>55830147
That id
JEW udod

>> No.55830194

>>55829773
bear case: chainlink hires even more useless employees, the market can't bear the sell pressure and the price craters, never to recover

>> No.55830232

>>55829773
Other than this >>55829812 which is a good answer,
I would say…the multi chain future doesn’t happen, and crypto as a whole stagnates, thus limiting enterprise adoption.
Both would be quite bearish for link, but also crypto as a whole.

Some unforeseen breakthrough could also be made where some monolithic chain emerges and renders all other chains useless. But, history tells me this is unlikely. The switching cost alone for devs has kept Eth dominant, even as more layer1s have popped up. It would have to be something truly monumental, and unable to be copied/implemented by other layer1s(unlikely).

>> No.55830271

the biggest danger would be swift rejecting ccip
chainlink can still succeed but it would be a massive setback and push the price potential back years
on the other hand, if it swift does adopt it in production it would be the biggest news in crypto ever

>> No.55830286

>>55830271
ccip getting rejected wouldn't move the price much, the release didn't either. the market just doestn't care

>> No.55830294

>>55830286
yeah probably true, it is a fucked up market
until we see a bull or evidence of swift using it price will just crab
build airdrops could get it moving too though but i think they won't be here until 2024

>> No.55830295

There is no bear case in any fundamental sense. SWIFT collaboration confirmed at the highest levels, Defi is so reliant on price feeds that seemingly endless amounts of VC money can't make a dent in link's market share. The closest that we ever saw was this year when SNX used a different oracle provider for its specific architecture, which has been replicated by link since. The only thing going wrong is the price, which unfortunately has driven everybody absolutely out of their fucking gourd.

>> No.55830422

>>55830286
>>55830294
I disagree that Swift acceptance wouldn't make a difference. It would be a green light for major investors who would want a slice of it. They don't make moves like that without a green light.

>> No.55830459

>>55829773
Sergey dumping on you is the bear case.

>> No.55830502

>>55830459
Every project has inflation, even BTC still has some as another anon pointed out. Shares get diluted all the time. It's not really a "bear case".
>inb4 chart
Neither is current price, smarty pants anons.

I'd say the bear case is smart contracts never take off, or smart contracts do take off but the industry ends up not seeing the value prop of decentralized oracles. Black swan event like Chainlink finally getting hacked would also kill the project imo, but counting on a black swan is also not really a bear case, more like a bear hail mary.

>> No.55831031

It's just a question of are you bullish or bearish on DeFi. Chainlink = DeFi. Simple as

>> No.55831531

>>55829773

Bear case is all investments with extreme potential carry risk and nobody knows the future with certainty.

That being said, a basic analysis will tell you link is either at the bottom or near the bottom. So if Link is something you want to try your luck on, no reason not to buy now.

>> No.55831535

>>55830459
Yeah, pretty much this.

>> No.55831537

>>55829773
>what's the bear case?
annoying faggots like you are bagholding.

die. die. die.

>> No.55831553

>>55829836

You give yourself away as new with this opinion. Morons laughed hard when people projected btc price would go above a single dollar. Same thing with every new round number.

At this point bitcoin is unstoppable, but the days of extreme high risk volatility are obviously at a close. Which is one of many reasons why tradfi is now interested in it.

>> No.55832241

Look at the underlying technology being proven correct and needed and functional then look at who is currently playing with it.

Look at the logic of link as an investment from 2017 until 2023 today. Look at the information available to you at each year and where link stands from a fundamental standpoint through time. Look at other assets and see their technological progress. Think about regulatory environments worldwide from 2017 to now and how they've changed.

Ask yourself if you would have invested money in 2017 if you were able, ask yourself the same question for each year or even every six month period.

Look at the capital 'invested' to other projects and see the progress to compare.

Just take price out of the equation and you'll have your answer. The second the price shoots up and it goes up ranks everyone will be saying oh my God it was right there in my face this whole time.

>> No.55832300

>>55829864
>fud ID
>retard
lol lmao

>> No.55832360

this coin fucking autism
holy

>> No.55832452

>>55832360
>honeypot id
kys

>> No.55832602

The bear case is as follows:

-credit crunch / macro environment not conducive to higher spec plays

-tokenomics: team still holds massive supply to be dumped

-after billions in funding and 7 years, there's still not really a finished product. I can't think of any other industry where that would fly

-there's no rush for anyone to implement this tech. Link is dependent on innovation taking place rapidly in a sector that historically makes changes very slow

-Link is no longer a new alt / has already had a big pump years ago. Historically almost every alt in the same scenario has not been able to replicate that first run. This, and the fact that there are thousands of other new altcoins in existence, potentially causes new buyers to go elsewhere. If I'm just entering crypto this year and want a high risk play, I'm not going to buy something already in the top 50. But that's just me so I can't claim how others think.


These are the main ones I can think of. Before anyone jumps down my throat, I've held since '18. If you can't do a list like this for every single investment you hold and/or not get upset if someone else does, you've committed one of the grave sins of investing, becoming emotionally tied to your holdings.

>> No.55832687

>>55832602
best post ITT
lmaoing at the retards saying "there is no bear case dude" or "a basic analysis tells you link is at the bottom!"
the absolute state of emotionally attached bagholders

>> No.55832740

>>55832602

financial institutions will on ramp eventually, as blockchain systems are far more efficient than whatever legacy systems they are using

Chainlink can extract value from private blockchains too and let them communicate with public ones which is very powerful

>> No.55832741

the bear case for link is
- chainlink labs might not deliver on their promised tech
- cryptocurrency in the form that CLL enables may not ever become widely adopted

if these come to pass then link is bunk, otherwise it wins

>>55829812
>bear case is if the price goes down
lol

>> No.55832903

>>55832740
>blockchain systems are far more efficient
they can't even scale

>> No.55833702

>>55832903
Lol what?

>> No.55833706
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55833706

Token not needed. Underperforming midwit coin.

>August 12, 2020:
>LINK: $17.25
>ETH: $390
>BTC: $11,800
>BNB: $21.77
>DOGE: $0.003
>ADA: $0.14
>SOL: $3.77
>MATIC: $0.02
>TRX: $0.02

>August 12, 2023:
>LINK: $7.44
>ETH: $1,848
>BTC: $29,415
>BNB: $240.15
>DOGE: $0.07
>ADA: $0.29
>SOL: $24.86
>MATIC: $0.68
>TRX: $0.07

>> No.55833987

>>55832452
I got link but it's the most mental gymnastics I've ever seen. It's literally like ETH with the gas prices. I would sell but I already sunk badly into this. FUCK YOU