Why do people say the US can't default?

[Anonymous No.55726480]

The Fed is independent.
Lets say they keep interest rates high to keep inflation down.
Nothing in its mandate says, its job is to save the government.

[Anonymous No.55726631]

>>55726480
They say this to make you buy their dollar bags

[Sean No.55726644]

>>55726480
Relative to income our debt isn’t that crazy compared to many other countries. With inflation over time debt becomes less money. If we try to pay it down rather than try to outgrow it we will 100% default. There’s really no choice, and it’s not ideal, but I’m honestly more worried about other things. In my opinion we’re basically playing peak performance, but it can’t be helped that global power eventually be shared by countries with populations that dwarf ours but have just been historically mismanaged.

[Anonymous No.55726655]

The US could pay it off to a manageable level within 50 or hell 100 years. But they show no intention of decreasing spending and I don't think they can because they know the population might crack. So yes probably default.

[Anonymous No.55726777]

>>55726480
Because the people that run the Fed are wealthy Americans that would lose their ass if America defaulted. Also because the entire world uses USD because the Fed has the least retarded monetary policy in the world so it's the best currency to trade with no matter how much BRICS retards and gold bugs cope. That global demand means we can inflate our currency slightly and it doesn't matter as long as we're less retarded than the second least retarded nation.
If you think Americans inflation is bad check out the Euro, the yen, the pound, the Yuan actively devaluing to artificially stay at 7 to 1.

[Anonymous No.55726801]

>>55726644
Doubt only because they always try to go the authoritarian controlled economy route. People will say China is BASED for trying to control things top down but it's literally too complex of a problem to be solved by one human mind. Love it or hate it, librarian markets with some regulation is the ideal economic system. Every other country will come close and then fail at the finish line because they don't believe in freedom.

[Anonymous No.55726812]

>>55726655
Just inflate it away. As long as the inflation is less than the competition it doesn't matter.

[Anonymous No.55726873]

>>55726777
Checked
>>55726801
Russias central bank does a better job then the fed by all measures.
The fed (intentionally) fucked up in 2021 when they should have raised rates a lot already
Russias central bank did great the last years
Its just the usa has this huge lead in all metrics

[Anonymous No.55726888]

>>55726873
The mark of a good currency is that it can be traded for anything. Yes the US placed those sanctions. All the more reason the US will never stop being the reserve currency in your lifetime. They can sanctions your wouldbe replacement into toilet paper tier.

[Anonymous No.55726894]

>>55726873
>Russias central bank does a better job then the fed by all measures.
nigga in a couple of months I'll be able to get a buy one get one deal on russian slavewives

[Anonymous No.55726908]

>>55726480
i think it was Greenspan (former fed chairman) who said that the US will never default on it's debt, but it cannot guarantee the purchasing power of the dollar.

[Anonymous No.55726929]

>>55726888
They literally stole russian holdings of us bonds
Now every country not slave to the usa will want to move away and the yuan is the replacement.
Also why are you silent about the 2021 fuckup
>>55726894
Check 2022 they saved it spectacular. You zoomed just out enought to see the top. But mid 2022 it was higher then years before

[Anonymous No.55726932]

>>55726908
Good that a jew always says things that come true

[Anonymous No.55726939]

>>55726480
what about that period between 1996 and 2001 where the debt ceiling didn't rise at all?

[Anonymous No.55726958]

>>55726929
>Now every country not slave to the usa will want to move away
Could you name those currencies?
>Yuan is the replacement
Fucking kek. China devalues the Yuan to support their expert economy. If you're trading in Yuan all of your loans lose money necessarily. You're not really that fucking dumb are you?

[Anonymous No.55726963]

>>55726929
Fascinating. Was their currency falling faster than ever before part of saving it?

[Anonymous No.55726967]

>>55726929
>Check 2022 they saved it spectacular.
They bought their own currency using what reserves were not frozen and fixed the bleeding temporary. And now that money is gone and it's slipping hard. That slip will grow faster with time.

[Anonymous No.55727004]

>>55726958
Zoom out retard
yuan/dollar is pretty stable and higher then 20 years ago
>>55726963
Considering the circumstances thats great work
>>55726967
Lets see

[Anonymous No.55727033]

>>55727004
>yuan/dollar is pretty stable
that's because the yuan is pegged to the dollar retard lmfao

[Anonymous No.55727097]

>>55726939
Cool it with the antisemitism.

[Anonymous No.55727113]

>>55726480
Isn't it mostly a congressional issue?

[Anonymous No.55727143]

>>55727004
It's stable on purpose nigger. You think China going from an East Asian backwater to the number 2 economy with the currency never going up in value is anything but fuckery? They can't let the Yuan gain value because then they can't export at a competitive rate. This means you're always better off holding USD if China is just going to arbitrarily devalue the yuan to stay cheaper than us markets. Shit global currency.
I swear the only people that ever speculate on a replacement reserve have no fucking clue how any of this shit works and just jump on the murrica bad globohomo currency bad. Let me put my homes into this backwards authoritarian state that runs their entire economy as America's factory.

[Anonymous No.55727153]

>>55726480
The idea that the US govt. doesnt control the US currency is laughable. Idc what the mystic rule book says, you are a joke.

[Sean No.55727193]

>>55726801
Part of me speculates the graphs will shift in America’s favor again but I don’t want to be arrogant. I prefer to overestimate my competitors if anything.

[Anonymous No.55727226]

>>55727143
The current rhetoric I see coming out of the US now is “decoupling” from China. Say the US government is actually sincere in its desire to reduce dependence on China, is there anything in the US’ arsenal that they can use to force China’s hand to de-peg their currency?

[Anonymous No.55727295]

>>55727033
>that's because the yuan is pegged to the dollar retard lmfao
>>55726958
>China devalues the Yuan to support their expert economy
What is it?
Its not pegged since many years
>>55727143
China can decide at any moment to not accept the dollar anymore for their products, aka dump all dollar they recieve.
In fact they massively dumped at the dollar top, maybe they were even responsible for putting that top in.
Im all in crypto, crypto solves this real problem for retail. But i have a feeling you are anti crypto aswell kek. ((((dollarmaxi))))

[Anonymous No.55727298]

>>55727226
No. They peg the Yuan to the USD because we buy all of their shit and if it got more expensive we would just make it ourselves or buy from someone cheaper.
Basically they're our bitch until India, Vietnam, or Mexico replace them. That's soon but the way. The most based future possible is Mexico becoming the number 2 economy and acting as a magnet to pull millions of Mexicans back home but also to stop central Americans from coming up.

[Anonymous No.55727328]

>>55727298
>countries will forever sell real products for dollar

[Anonymous No.55727345]

>>55727295
It's been average 7 to 1 for the past 20 years anon. In that time China grew their economy by an average 9% annual. How in the fuck can you think that an economy growing that fast would have their currency stay in lock step with the USD when the US economy only grows about 3% annual?
But maybe you're right. Put all of your money into Yuan. What do I know.

[Anonymous No.55727348]

>>55727328
What's the alternative? I want metal and Chinese steel workers want rice and the rice farmers wants food and that costs money.

[Anonymous No.55727351]

>>55726644
>I'm not bad because someone else is worse

[Anonymous No.55727359]

>>55727351
Unironically yes. Everyone on earth just wants a stable reliable currency to sell their shit. The US is retarded and fucked up but then you look at the competition and you understand why the dollar is king.

[Anonymous No.55727363]

>>55727348
>Chinese steel workers want rice and the rice farmers wants food and that costs money
Ahm does the usa sell food? No. So you dont need dollar for food, you need currencies of food exporteurs.
All the usa economy is dependent on foreign countries not dumping all dollar they recieve.
And its getting worse
And no it wont last forever

[Anonymous No.55727370]

>>55726480
The US Government can't default, but it can try to print itself out of the hole by exponentially increasing the money supply. That would be the most inflationary event ever.

[Anonymous No.55727377]

>>55727298
>we would just make it ourselves or
Don't kid yourself. The US couldn't make its way out of a wet paper sack. The country has no mass production infrastructure or workforce. The country is dependent on China for production.

[Anonymous No.55727382]

>>55727363
>Ahm does the usa sell food?
He doesn't know that we farm a shit ton of onions that's bought up by the Chinese. We export an insane amount of food to China. Like I said, people that have the opinions always know less than nothing.

[Anonymous No.55727386]

>>55727345
>Put all of your money into Yuan
I said im all in crypto. Im not holding fiat longer then a few months, like from october 2021 on i did hold a good dollar amount for a few months.
>>55727345
>It's been average 7 to 1 for the past 20 years anon. In that time China grew their economy by an average 9% annual. How in the fuck can you think that an economy growing that fast would have their currency stay in lock step with the USD when the US economy only grows about 3% annual?
Thats not really touching my point that China has the power to stop holding dollar.>>55727345
>It's been average 7 to 1 for the past 20 years anon
What?

[Anonymous No.55727399]

>>55727382
Well your trade balance with China is HORRIBLE
>U.S. export totaled $153.8 billion, an increase of 1.6% ($2.4 billion) from 2021; U.S. imports from China totaled $536.8 billion, an increase of 6.3% ($31.8 billion); and the trade deficit with China was $382.9 billion, an increase of 8.3% of ($29.4 billion).
So yes you sell a bit söy for lets say electronics. No dollar needed
But the 1 billion !!!!!! dollar per day, China doesnt need that, they could just dump it

[Anonymous No.55727440]

>>55727377
See my comment on Mexico. Also American manufacturing still exists. It's just too expensive and shit quality.

[Anonymous No.55727463]

>>55727399
The monetary value of food is low until you don't have any and it's worth all the money in the world. China needs money to buy food from someone. Doesn't matter if it's America or not. They simply do not have the arable land to produce anything that's not loaded to lead and cadmium.
Whether it's us or Brazil or Ukraine or Canada or Japan they have to pay in USD because nobody wants Yuan and they sure as shit don't want their own currency.

[Anonymous No.55727474]

>>55727386
>I said im all in crypto
So you specialize in losing money. Understood.
China CAN stop using USD and they can unpeg their currency from USD but that's the end of Chinese manufacturing. A free traded Yuan means a Chinese labor force that's too expensive to justify. Spoiler, they're already more expensive than India which is why companies are leaving.

[Anonymous No.55727483]

>>55727463
China already trades with Brazil in Yuan
Thats how delusional you are

[Anonymous No.55727506]

>>55727463
First of you are obfuscating the 380 billions per year. So China CLEARLY has enought for money to buy food and stack lots of dollar on top of it.
>have to pay in USD because nobody wants Yuan and they sure as shit don't want their own currency
NO
Russia doesnt even accept the dollar and they are a huge food exporteur.
Trade 101 for you:
China sells products to russia/brazil/argentinia, gets food
If the trade is balanced no dollar is needed, and in fact it works with yuan already

[Anonymous No.55727507]

>>55727483
All good until you realize that's a one way street. China will buy Brazilian food with Yuan but won't sell in Yuan.

[Anonymous No.55727515]

>>55727506
China is a net food exporter. Doesn't matter who they buy it from. They buy or they die. Simple as. To keep buying they need a competitive currency. To stay competitive they need to devalue. It's a drug they can never quit. Anything else is cope.

[Anonymous No.55727529]

>>55727474
>So you specialize in losing money. Understood.
I KNEW IT
Are you paid to shill for the jewish dollar or what?
P.s. im up x50 since i first got into crypto.
>A free traded Yuan means a Chinese labor force that's too expensive to justify. Spoiler, they're already more expensive than India which is why companies are leaving.
Yes it would cause problems (not end it), thats why they keep it restricted. India doesnt have the products china can produce. China mocks germany in car producing all of a sudden for example.

[Anonymous No.55727544]

>>55727515
>To keep buying they need a competitive currency
No, are you dumb and can not read? I explained it to you >>55727506
They need products people want. And they have more of them then any other country.
Also russia alone could supply China with enough food, and guess what country is dependent of China now?

[Anonymous No.55727546]

>>55727529
K
https://www.businessinsider.com/china-trade-war-covid-companies-moving-supply-chains-2022-12

[Anonymous No.55727559]

>>55727544
China doesn't "have" products people want. They MAKE those products. And they only make them because their workers work at slave wages. If the Yuan were worth what it would be worth Chinese workers would be paid nearly as well as American workers. But then nobody would find the labor costs attractive. That's already happening and companies are pulling out for cheaper nations.

[Anonymous No.55727560]

>>55727546
Oh wow msm anti china shills?
Thats new WOW
2 weeks until china collapse

[Anonymous No.55727565]

>>55727560
>Companies literally leaving Chinese
>It's just shills
Ok Chang. I think I'm done here.

[Sean No.55727584]

>>55727565
I saw an article in the news that Starbucks sales in China are skyrocketing back to all time highs or something, and I shuddered knowing the rising dragon is not yet dead.

[Anonymous No.55727602]

>>55727559
Too late for your dream
As i said they make high tech and cars now with crazy wage rises
While still beeing lower
>>55727565
Im done because you keep ignoring my points
Especially the part where China stacks 1 billion dollar per day they CHOOSE to hold FOR NOW
The part where you can trade products for food.
The part where you ignore they can get enough food from russia

[Anonymous No.55727606]

>>55727584
Consumerism isn't what drives china's economy.

[Anonymous No.55727607]

>>55727602
What Chinese car do you drive?

[Anonymous No.55727615]

>>55726480
Sure, but the fed is ultimately controlled by congress. They were created, and can be dissolved by congress, or otherwise restructured and replaced with yes men who would up for monetizing the debt through inflation.

[Anonymous No.55727629]

>>55727602
Your points are retarded so I don't waste my time reading your hot takes that are based on a dream you had. Fact is China needs a weak currency to stay competitive but it's still not competitive compared to India Thailand, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Mexico et al.

[Anonymous No.55727655]

>>55727607
I dont have a car but likely my first car is a chinese one. But i have a huawei google free smartphone.
>>55727629
My points are 100% correct
Also i forgot you ignored my point aboout the fed fucking up in 2021
ITS NOT RETARDED THAT YOU CAN TRADE FOOD FOR PRODUCTS WITHOUT DOLLAR YOU NIGGER
China wants a weak currency yes but is ultra competetive

[Anonymous No.55727658]

>>55727507
>All good until you realize that's a one way street. China will buy Brazilian food with Yuan but won't sell in Yuan.
Why are you so ignorant?

Do you even know what the fuck is going on?

>Bolivia is the latest South American nation to use China’s yuan for trade in challenge to the dollar

>July 28, 2023

>Bolivia is now using the yuan to pay for imports and exports, becoming the latest country in South America to regularly use the Chinese currency in a small but growing challenge to the hegemony of the U.S. dollar for international financial transactions in the region.

>Between May and July of this year, Bolivia conducted financial operations amounting to 278 million Chinese yuan ($38.7 million), which accounts for 10% of its foreign trade during that period, Economy Minister Marcelo Montenegro said on Thursday.

https://apnews.com/article/yuan-bolivia-trade-argentina-brazil-dollar-696bfb7c5ab68d4f0a87a7f6557678f0

[Anonymous No.55727663]

>>55726480
the chart is retarded, as if a president steps into office day 1 and is responsible for all the debt piling up from decisions made years ago.

[Anonymous No.55727680]

>>55727655
Doubt. You're not going to buy a Chinese car because you'd need to import it because nobody can even name a single Chinese car brand without looking it up. Any country including China is capable of making a good cat but you need a few decades to not be dog shit. See Kia. Solid cars now but for the longest the Koreans couldn't make a car to save their life.
China is stuck in manufacturing and haven't managed to switch to a service economy. Divestment into the newest set of foreign sweat shops is starting too soon for China to make the transition.
It's ogre.

[Anonymous No.55727689]

>>55727658
>Bolivia
>40 billion GDP
A rounding error on china's economy. Call me when a real country does it.

[Anonymous No.55727694]

>>55727689
Brazil does it.
I was just giving an example thats just 5 days old.

[Anonymous No.55727701]

>>55727680
They sell it normally here in central Europe
Just like german cars exept for half the price
>>55727680
>It's ogre.
>two more weeks.

[Anonymous No.55727708]

>>55727689
I was also showing you a graphic from Bloomberg
That china already does 20% of its trade in Yuan
and that was last year

[Anonymous No.55727742]

>>55727701
Name one. Nobody has ever seen that shit. Just buy German faggot.

[Anonymous No.55727756]

>>55727742
>top ten of china cars to buy
https://www.welt.de/motor/gallery123890827/Die-besten-China-Autos-die-es-zu-kaufen-gibt.html

[Anonymous No.55727764]

>>55727742
>>55727756
Maybe that article is very old
Basically you can buy countless models from China in the eu

[Anonymous No.55727782]

>>55727756
Google. Yeah nobody has ever heard of that shit.

[Anonymous No.55727786]

>>55727345
So once they stop that that means the yuan will get stronger right? As in price go up? Why not buy yuan cheap now?
hmmmmmmm

[Anonymous No.55727797]

>>55727782
Well you claimed nobody has seen these cars.
What am i supposed to do other then disproof you quickly using google?

[Anonymous No.55727805]

>>55727786
>China needs a cheap Yuan to boost manufacturing via cheap labor
>Unpeg Yuan
>Yuan value goes to the moon where it belongs
>Chinese labor now some of the most expensive in the world
>Nobody wants to make cheap shit there anymore
>Chinese economy craters
>Yuan crashes below what it used to be pegged at
>Hundreds of millions dead in a year
That's why. People will cope post about third world countries trading in Yuan but they might as well be trading in USD given the Yuan is pegged to the dollar.

[Sean No.55727808]

>>55727606
Yeah but money to waste on Starbucks is a sign that they still have as sizable a middle class (granted a Chinese version of the middle class) as ever

[Anonymous No.55727851]

every politican should be forced to work for free or its treason.

[Anonymous No.55727891]

>>55726480
if you were an 80 year old grandpa on your last legs, wouldn't you max out all your loans and credit cards before you die?

[Anonymous No.55727980]

>>55726873
>Russias central bank does a better job then the fed by all measures.
You're definitely not Russian if you believe that.

[Anonymous No.55727988]

>>55727033
It's not anymore, it's pegged to a basket of currencies based on FX reserves.

[Anonymous No.55728132]

>>55727988
yes anon, I'm aware of what the wikipedia article says
the basket of currencies is heavily weighted against the dollar and euro, and only gets more dependent on the eurodollar every time they adjust the percentages.

[Anonymous No.55728218]

>>55728132
Investopedia but yes, it's still wholly reliant on not upsetting the USD as that's the main currency anyone importing cares about.

[Anonymous No.55730184]

>>55726480
Money isn't real bro. While I understand the fed is independent it's also not exactly.
>how?
It just isn't
People have been screaming about the national debt for decades and nothing ever happens.
Money is fake.
People only use our version of monopoly money over others because the United States acts as a global financier which is why this country has so many financial services and so few manufacturing services.

[Anonymous No.55730301]

>>55726644
130% debt to gdp nigger. That's pretty bad.

[Anonymous No.55730436]

>>55730301
GDP isnt income. Hes saying the US gets 4-5 trillion in tax revenue and needs to pay 450 billion (climbing though) on debt payments. Meaning its like 10% of our income is debt payments. Thats not the worst I think but because rates are still climbing and going to keep going, and congress is retarded im not super optimistic about it.

[Anonymous No.55730486]

>>55726644
>Relative to income our debt isn’t that crazy compared to many other countries.
Compared to southern europe and japan and that's literally it.
Compared to the rest of the world you're fucked

[Anonymous No.55730595]

>>55726888
>The mark of a good currency is that it can be traded for anything. Yes the US placed those sanctions.
True enough, but doing things like this has a long-term cost. Nobody says it out loud and the change won't be immediate, but Pandora's box has now been opened, and it can't be closed again. Seizing one's own issued bonds is financially the same as defaulting, thus it's starting to click in people's heads that the world reserve currency has the same creditworthiness issues as some EM national currency.
This is the sort of thing that, while tactically perhaps useful, has severe long-term strategic consequences: if someone defaults once, people eye each other uncomfortably and start to write whitepapers on "alternative payment methods". Default twice, and currencies start sprouting like mushrooms. Default thrice, and national governments are collapsing worldwide if their leaders refuse to de-dollarize.
This does not, therefore, mean that any alternative currency is any better. Many of them are actually much, much worse, and the USD at least used to be clearly superior to any of these alternatives. However, and despite however we appropriate we judge any sanctions to be, the USD itself is now well on its way towards degenerating to the level of the kind of EM currencies we tend to hear about in news about financial collapses.

[Anonymous No.55731349]

>>55727980
No
Tell me then

[Anonymous No.55731419]

>>55730436
>Hes saying the US gets 4-5 trillion in tax revenue and needs to pay 450 billion (climbing though) on debt payments. Meaning its like 10% of our income is debt payments.
Your numbers are way off

[Anonymous No.55731605]

>>55731419
That chart isnt the national debt. Debt payments on treasuries is 450ish billion.

[Anonymous No.55731703]

>>55731605
Cant you read?

[Anonymous No.55731749]

>>55731703
>The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that interest payments will total $663 billion in fiscal year 2023 and rise rapidly throughout the next decade — climbing from $745 billion in 2024 to $1.4 trillion in 2033. In total, net interest payments will total nearly $10.6 trillion over the next decade.
that chart isnt measuring what you think it means.

[Anonymous No.55731768]

>>55731749
>projecting

[Anonymous No.55731785]

>>55731768
>the feds are lying to us
>here look at this chart from the feds
You can go look at debt to the penny online and get a nice excel sheet that shows you payments. It wont equal your chart.

[Anonymous No.55731814]

>>55731785
652 billion in nine months already

>The cost of servicing US government debt jumped by 25% in the first nine months of the fiscal year, reaching $652 billion and contributing to a major widening in the budget deficit.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-13/us-racks-up-652-billion-in-interest-costs-as-higher-rates-bite

[Anonymous No.55731824]

>>55731814
K so now 650ish. Still not your 900ish that your chart is showing. Just admit you posted something wrong to try to be a doomer.

[Anonymous No.55732161]

What's so important about devaluing your currency as an export economy? Sure, you get more of your worthless local currency but now it's worthless and doesn't buy you more stuff anyway. Now what?

[Anonymous No.55732171]

>>55731824
Thats just nine months out of twelve

[Anonymous No.55732229]

>>55732161
If you're China or Russia, you grift other countries into joining your fun little club and then you pay them monopoly money for their goods and services

[Anonymous No.55732427]

>>55732229
That's what the US does already but they're not an export economy (except their inflation) and this doesn't answer my question anyway.