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2023-11: Warosu is now out of extended maintenance.

/biz/ - Business & Finance


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File: 212 KB, 802x388, Screenshot 2023-06-22 at 07-38-51 UK Financial Times.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55370611 No.55370611 [Reply] [Original]

Rates higher for longer. Canada shits the bed.
Get those 5 year bonds the fuck up. Get housing the fuck down.

>> No.55370638

>>55370611
UK's inflation is at 8.5% and their 4.5% interest rate didn't pull it down so they raised it to 5%

Now obviously they need to raise it more but they are fucked because of their bond market. Boomers who retire and all their pensions are heavily invested into the UK bond market which has been at 0% interest rate since 2008. Thats 15 years of all bonds being pulled down to zero.

Now suddenly they jack it up to 5%. All of their retirement savings are basically worthless. Their bond market is collapsing because they were enjoying the cheap cocaine that is ((QE)) 0% interest rates

>> No.55370666

Why the shit is GBP still going up against USD? FFS I still have USD I need to cash out

>> No.55370668

>>55370638
Sounds like their problem not mine, higher for longer

>> No.55370672

>>55370638
I want to go outside and wade through boomers begging for bread. I will stop and hear the story of each one, before interrupting them and telling them to manage their money better, before pushing them back into the gutter.
Keep inflating BoE until a loaf of bread is ten quid.

>> No.55370739

>>55370611
>BOE

literally who

>> No.55370798

>>55370739
sorry I normally mark my threads so stupid people can avoid them, you can just step outside for a wank while the adults talk

>> No.55370799

>>55370638
>Now suddenly they jack it up to 5%. All of their retirement savings are basically worthless.
someone explain what he meant by this?

>> No.55370809

>>55370666
nibba you had all last year when the USD was a rocketship and now that Powell is gonna pause after July everyone is shifting their USD to other currencies that give them higher interest rates.

>> No.55370816

>>55370611
haha get fucked mortgage cucks

>> No.55370826

>>55370666
because the USD is losing its relevance

>> No.55370831

>>55370638
I don't understand why bond markets dislike high interest rates. Why would you want bonds that pay no interest?

>> No.55370853

>>55370799
>>55370831
Kind of a brainlet about this but i think its because the lower interest yielding bonds take big haircuts to their market value when rates rise. So if you bought 1% interest bonds and suddenly the market is flooded with 5% interest bonds, nobody wants to buy your 1% bonds.

>> No.55370860

>>55370831
existing bonds already held are worth less.
imagine you buy a 10y bond yielding 2%
then rates go to 5%. your existing bond bought at 1mm is now worth far less in real terms as it's getting a lower coupon (dividend).
that's why when rates rise we say bonds go down.

>> No.55370875
File: 165 KB, 1216x733, Screenshot 2023-06-22 at 08-30-35 iShares 20 Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) Interactive Stock Chart - Yahoo Finance.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55370875

>>55370853
yes, not exact but i can't be arsed to go to Fred.
here is the 10y yield vs 20/30y TLT *price*

>> No.55370917

>>55370798
you are priced out kid. get fuckin rekt

>> No.55370930

>>55370666
Checked
Keked
Selling the top

>> No.55370943

>>55370611
5-6% is a normal interest rate. many people have lived only in this zeroish% stealth theft bubble. inflated asset prices starting to bite. debt>gdp. riding the rollercoaster to rektifying reset. we’ve barely started

>> No.55370959
File: 113 KB, 990x743, newFile-3.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55370959

>>55370943
Agreed this is just the start for shitty currencies in over leveraged countries. See also: Canada.

>> No.55370960

>>55370860
But don't yields also go up when interest rises?

>> No.55370967

>>55370739
the original bank. the bank the fed mimicked for better or for worse.

>> No.55370998

>>55370943
rates had to be ~0% because everyone was skint, it was the only way to afford anything and keep money flowing through the economy. This is going to cause massive stagnation and not help reduce inflation at all. The dreaded stagflation.

>> No.55371050

>>55370998
true. but that is to say we we’re already fucked and instead of dealing with a smaller problem there is now a much bigger problem. tired of hearing about ‘mistakes’. most of the time mistake=success is the real situation
>stagfaltion
absolutely. we’re being pulled left ot right, up and down in every way. what a time to be alive

>> No.55371179

>>55370960
yields go up on newly issued bonds. If you buy a bond paying 2%, it remains 2% until maturity.

>> No.55371206

>>55371179
what are you talking about? Aren't there yield curves showing the change in yield over time?

>> No.55371232

>>55371179
and just so I'm clear, that fucks pension funds because they are all bagholding bonds from the last 10 years paying pennies?

Correct if i'm missing something

>> No.55371242

>>55371232
pension funds are always left holding the bags. every. fucking. time

>> No.55371276

>>55370611
U.K actually had a lower inflation rate during the 80s and the only way that was tamed was keeping interest rates up over 10% for nearly a decade. They still have ways to go

>> No.55371302

>>55371276
Really, with all the thatcher job cuts of that era?

>> No.55371931

>>55371206
Yield is a percentage of market value, interest (rate) is a percentage of par value. A $100 bond issued at 5% interest will pay $5/y until it matures. If its market value depreciates to $99, the yield becomes $5/$99=5.05% but the interest rate is still 5%.

>> No.55371946

>>55370998
Good, I hope everyone who leveraged up and lived like a movie star over the past ten years loses everything

>> No.55372062

What will this do to your average mortgaged up millennial?

>> No.55372085

>>55372062
They will have to spend less money on diliveroo and weed to service their debts

>> No.55372093

>>55372062
Put another hole in your belt

>> No.55372160

>>55370668
Sounds like its your problem not theirs. Senior citizens are the largest voting block, then imagine boomer senior citizens.

>> No.55372193

>>55372160
Boomers, with a fixed income, their pensions are way more hurt by inflation than by young people being laid off and zombie companies going out of business

>> No.55372423

>>55370799
Pension funds have leveraged positions on gilts (uk debt).

Higher interest rates = lower market value of gilts (that were issued at low coupon).

>> No.55372744

>>55372193
Triple lock pension

>> No.55372769

>>55372744
>Economy comes crashing down
>Pension funds that hoarded cash load up
>Boomer gets his monthly check
>Pays less at the pump
>Is happy and votes whoever is still in power
>Curses about that lazy youth
2008 was similar, enjoy

>> No.55372782

>>55372744
Boomers always win

>> No.55372869

> "to tame le inflation"
fuck that. Why are they really doing it ? who wins and who loses?

it's like they said that inflation is due to supply chain issues, energy prices, war etc... first two been solved but the higher prices stays so you trully can't trust those cunts.

>> No.55372920

>>55372782
Truly God's chosen generation.

>> No.55372921

>>55370943
Yeah but like 10 years is no joke. If theirs something wrong in the system it will flown to the survive eventually - except it didn't!

It's been to long for it not to be normal what i'm trying to say. And the markets see it start doing down fairly soon anyways.

>> No.55372929

>>55372920
The Boomers at least had good intentions, GenX has been a generation of scammy fuck ups that knew better but chose to be jews. They get the oven

>> No.55372960

Rate hikes create demand for the domestic currency or am I retarded?

>> No.55372984

>>55372960
correct

>> No.55373057

>>55372929
>The Boomers at least had good intentions
Wut?

>> No.55373163
File: 75 KB, 1400x787, 5cf3e2ea-1ec0-4555-aa7c-0ac9d358213c.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55373163

>>55372782
That road is coming to an end.

>> No.55373287

>>55370959
gissa job
i cans does that

>> No.55373307

>>55373057
Boomers had the naive idea that the growth they experience due to post war rebuilding would last and built a naive system on that idea. GenX saw that it was bullshit and went straight on out to do the same shit but more jewery full well knowing that it was bullshit, because they felt entitled to get what the boomers got. 0%, bail outing and shit is not boomer doing but GenX

>> No.55373548

>>55372869
i've heard its to create a new recession to keep people working for low wages

>> No.55373631

>>55373548
lower wages + crash - inflation = growth potential
add some deflation through high interest rates to it and we might see a golden 50s in 10 years

>> No.55373704
File: 481 KB, 527x500, Screenshot 2023-06-22 at 14-18-03 UK FILMS AND TV CENTRAL (@ukfilmsandtv).png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55373704

>>55373287
the many faces of yozza

>> No.55375217

>>55370611
I don't care what they do, I just want food to stop going up by 5+% every week.

>> No.55375225

>>55375217
The UK is an island. Starve

>> No.55376375
File: 50 KB, 589x626, fed-pivot-can-actually-crash-market-v0-e9gdkgjpg2y91.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55376375

>>55372929
Generation X are right there with the greatest generation as the two worst generations of the 20th century. Let me give you some perspective. Older boomers were drafted as teenagers or young adults into the Vietnam war by their greatest generation parents who, by the way, just got done firebombing Germany and nuking Japan. They were also in the middle of bulldozing American cities by implementing suburban subdivision sprawl. They took us off the gold standard, they instituted the immigration act of 1964, they passed civil rights acts in 1964, they bent the knee to the feminist movement. Generation X in contrast were born after the Boomers. They never got drafted, they were kids during the inflation of the late 20th century. They constantly did drugs, partied and committed suicide. Then the ones that survived drug overdosing, suicide and partying had kids and raised them to be Zoomers all while blaming Boomers and Millennials for the world we are in today.

>>55373057
Boomers never initiated a draft even with 9/11. Partly because many of them were drafted for Vietnam. I can see Generation X starting a Zoomer draft.

>> No.55376666
File: 1.53 MB, 544x874, 1672969228033158.webm [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
55376666

>"blah blah"
>doesn't say what the play is

you fuckers haven't said shit about fuck despite what you all said.

what is the FUCKEN play for plebs like us, you dumb fucks? None of which you all said benefits us directly. so go suck a dick and fuck off or share your insights

>> No.55376728

>>55370611
That still negative real interest rate... Official inflation in the UK is in the 8% range.

>> No.55376756

>>55376666
I'm afraid you're just going to have to drown in your own shit

>> No.55376763

>>55370960
Not on bonds already issued. You seem to have a misunderstanding on how bonds work. They don't out like dividends on stock or interest on a loan.

IE, you pay 10 dollar for a bond and get 11 dollar back at maturity, that bond have a yield of 10%. If interest rate go up and now the interest rate is at 22.22% you only need to pay $9 for the bond that will give you the same $11. Since you paid $10 for yours and the bond issuer is only selling them for $9, your holding just lost $1 in value, assuming equal time until maturity. No one will buy yours for $10 when they can buy them directly for $9.

>> No.55376869

>>55376756
fuck you and respect my digits and my pajj power >>55376666

i demand answers

>> No.55377157

>>55376375
Jep and as an older millennial seeing what those fuck ups are doing as ceos, cfos, charity board members, judges, "educators" and politicians, the moment they try a draft, I go full terrorist and kill as many of them as humanly possible.

>> No.55377186

>>55370672
I swear, boomers these days, all they know how to do is complain and expect handouts from their kids. I'm cutting the cord for their own sakes, no more fancy retirement home. It's time for them to buckle down, pull themselves up by their bootstraps, and get a good paying job.