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2023-11: Warosu is now out of extended maintenance.

/biz/ - Business & Finance

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55286447 No.55286447 [Reply] [Original]

>17% of all office space in the US is vacant.
>$1.5 trillion of commercial real estate debt is coming due by 2025.
>Most of this debt is held by regional banks and vacant properties are struggling to pay the debt.
It's over.

>> No.55286472
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55286472

>>55286447

>> No.55286486
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55286486

2008:2 BIGGER AND COMMERCIALER LET'S FUCKIN GO00000000000000000

>> No.55286517

>>55286447
>Quotes a text file

>> No.55286518

Hell ya. Let this shit crash and gonna buy the
SKIN WALKER RANCH

>> No.55286549

>>55286472
https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1666089781951107076
There are dozens of news articles on this as well. Search google for office vacancy rates by city.
That tweet summarizes well but leaves out occupancy rates which are even lower.

>> No.55286553

>>55286517
Stop being retarded.

>> No.55286573
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55286573

>>55286518
>SKIN WALKER

>> No.55286582

>>55286549
oh okay thanks i searched it. now what? rents aren't budging though

I'm unironically moving to SF in Dec maybe they will turn these into residential renting spaces :)

>> No.55286602

>>55286447
It couldn't happen to nicer cities.

>> No.55286611

>>55286447
The Fee will just bail out all of the banks like always

>> No.55286616

>>55286611
*the Fed

>> No.55286711

>>55286447
What's a usual vacancy rate?

>>55286582
>I'm unironically moving to SF in Dec
Grim.

>> No.55286773

>>55286711
for Detroit , 13% is booming! OP is a fucking retard

Portland is prob back to 8% after it got nogged to death. commerical real estate is not something anyone on here can speak intelligently about including me

>> No.55286806

>>55286447
Tether is backed by this, get ready.

>> No.55286821

>>55286447
And how is this not a good thing? Greedy white men are losing money. GOOD!

>> No.55286881

Are you retarded? First of all companies are still paying their leases, regardless of whether anyone is actually working at those offices. Second, what's stopping a conversion to apartments? Have you not seen a single thing online about the dire demand of city housing? Fuck this board just surprises with new retardation every day.

>> No.55286889

>>55286447
NYC, only 17% wtf? How the fuck did they get these figures, even the SF/LA/Chicago numbers seem low.

>> No.55286960
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55286960

Why don't we tear down empty skyscrapers and office buildings and convert them into farm land? Offices were a mistake and we don't need more bullshit "tech" companies. Population needs to go back to picking crops and manual labor in the sun not larping as "the office" or being an "influencer".

>> No.55286974

How is this even possible when they’re sending us all back to the office?

>> No.55286987

It already bottomed. Special thanks to all the panic sellers that brought me VNO at $12.

>> No.55287006

>>55286447
Too bad the housing market isn't crashing fast enough in California I'm seeing a ton off shitty as is houses selling for up to 600k

>> No.55287078
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55287078

>>55286486
This.

>>55286582
>Get LLC
>Be founder for tech company
>Make sure the new office has commuter changing rooms, showers, nap room, company kitchen, and wine bar
Half of SF commerical real estate is better than most people's homes.

>>55286806
>Commercial paper
So are most banks

>>55286881
>Be office fag
>Not know anything about construction, or zoning

>>55286974
Meme jobs are over. The fat has been trimmed. Everyone else? Back to the office, or take a job in curryland.

>> No.55287966

>>55286881
You're retarded. The OP 8s about vacancy rates. Occupatoon rates are a separate figure. The occupancy rate in New York is just hit 50% in buildings still leased.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nyc-office-occupancy-hits-50-first-time-covid-crash
Its not poasible to convert most office spaces in New York to apartments. There are zomed living standard requirements for aprtmemts that remodels offen can't work around. Even if the conversion is possible the economics of the project doesn't add up to being viable.

>> No.55287990

>>55286447
The fed will forgive their loans guaranteed

>> No.55288000

>>55286447
priced in

>> No.55288014

Part of the reason is inflation

Businesses can’t make it unless they are selling Chinese shit or sugar like boba it’s ridiculous

Try to find a place that sells regular chicken

>> No.55288042

>>55286881
>>55287966
100% - 17% vacant -- 50% of 83% of office space occupied = 58.5% of office space is being used in New York right now. A lot of the office space still occupied likely won't renew the lease when it ends. Commercial landlords are gonna get raped in the next few years.

>> No.55288064

>what is vertical farming?

>> No.55288074

>>55286447
Please tell me when I can buy an office that isn't a 600sqft moldy barn being sold for 280k

>> No.55288135

>>55288064
A pipedream. Simply not practical.

>> No.55288153

>>55286582
Rents break lower after debt restructuring occurs not before

>> No.55288160

>>55288135
why not? they know how to do the ‘plant based’ now. dutch gov are buying up farms because le nitrogen, according to eu plan
>at this stage the scheme is voluntary
bill gates is buying the farms. russia just happens to take out a dam in this wet war meaning ukraine grain is rekt. big office buildings can’t pay the bills. it’s the only possible repurpose at this point

>> No.55288164

I want to rent space in an isolated office park and just live in it. Can I rent an office for $500 a month?

>> No.55288452

>>55286447
How is this different from before?

>> No.55288473

>>55288164
first problem is kitchen and shower, second problem is tenant doesn't allow this

>> No.55288798

>>55286881
>Second, what's stopping a conversion to apartments?
Rewiring and plumbing an office building for apartments is as expensive as building a new building from scratch.

>> No.55289151

>>55288452
No more free money hack from the fed = chickens coming home to roost.

>> No.55289332

>>55286881
>Second, what's stopping a conversion to apartments?
Most large office buildings have significant amounts of non-window space that could not be converted to living space. Not to mention all the changes you'd have to make to plumbing, electrical, and HVAC. You might as well knock the building down and start over.

>> No.55290871

>>55286881
Zoning laws and the massive cost of construction to build it out to spec and code for rentals.
Its kind of like asking "What's stopping this Toyota Camry from being a race car?"
Pretty wild that you're calling people retarded.
>>55287006
How is it going to crash when a million mexicans just crossed the border?
>>55288452
Businesses got massive grants, debt was cheap as fuck, proles had cash to burn, a re-opening was on the horizon. This is the aftermath.

>> No.55291155

>>55286881
Midwit If I have ever seen one. You clearly have no idea what you're talking about.

>> No.55291161

>>55286447
Not my problem

>> No.55291173
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55291173

California is in active societal freefall and the only way they're going to keep covering it up is by squeezing their remaining rich chinks and jeets more and more until they finally leave too

>> No.55291198

Whatever, nothing is going to happen.
And even if it does, the government will just print money until it goes away.

>> No.55291222
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55291222

>>55291198
>Whatever, nothing is going to happen.
>And even if it does, the government will just print money until it goes away.

>> No.55291635

>>55291173
I wish New Mexico would get its shit together.

>> No.55292255

>>55291198
@5.25% interest? Ok

>> No.55292282

>>55289332
>t. sweating residential RE baggie
These issues are vastly overstated.

>> No.55292358

>>55291173
Shouldn't this all add up to approximately zero? Because it adds up in the ballpark of -250k. Where did those 250k people go?

>> No.55292391

>>55292358
vaxx deaths

>> No.55292406

>>55292282
>t. zoomer faggot without a clue
https://cre.moodysanalytics.com/insights/cre-trends/office-to-apartment-conversions/

>> No.55292441

>>55292358
Stop asking questions.

>> No.55292554
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55292554

>>55292358
A million people(boomers) died to covid and we allowed a lot of migrants into the country as always. I guarantee the growth in NC/SC/GA isn't from Cali's implosion. Its from immigrants.

>> No.55292564

>>55292358
Most of the states have no data provided so no

>> No.55292620

>>55287078
And looks what’s happening with the banks. At least are audited. Tether is mystery meat. Double top in mc.

>> No.55292633

>>55292564
They have data provided, it's just a very small amount of inflow/outflow for each flyover state so they aren't labeled. But you can tell by looking at it that it doesn't account for 250k missing people
>>55292554
It's 250k MISSING people, not 250k extra people

>> No.55292677

>>55292633
People fleeing to other countries then? I don't care to read into how the US census bureau grooms its stats and graphics.

>> No.55292699

>>55292633
No it doesn't, not on the chart anyway. If you want to go look at all 50 states domestic migration data from 20-21 you'll probably figure it out though.

>> No.55292945

>>55291173
Now post the updated version. I'm pretty sure it has gotten worse

>> No.55293180

Can’t we just bail them out?

>> No.55293315

>>55292620
>banks are audited
Yeah in the sense that they are legally allowed to do through fractional reserve lending what brought every single exchange down and their user's funds with it; specifically, not being able to honor every customer's holdings causing a bankrun which destroyed their liquidity and subsequently their ability to pay their debt obligations resulting in bankruptcy.
The only reason banks make money on loans below inflation rate is because they are lending you money that doesn't even physically exist.
it's so bad that cash, which is literally just paper with a serial number on it, is scarce relative to bank deposits.
That means you are literally just getting on a screen which you are paying back through digits on a screen that you received through actual labor. Welcome to modern day slavery but it's not 'real' slavery because you can jerk off to interracial porn, drink beer, and eat goyslop.

>> No.55293747

>>55286447
>Office building will be converted to appartments and the horde of shitskins will fill them.

Whats is over exactly?

>> No.55295722

>>55286881
>what's stopping a conversion to apartments
The people who own residential real estate there lmao. Imagine how much money you’d make off just a 20-unit rental in a desirable part of a city. You want 30 more 20-unit rentals showing up within a few blocks?

Protip, the people who own the most real estate are in positions to influence local politics like zoning etc.

>> No.55296313

>>55286773
These seems a little copey.