/biz/ - Business & Finance

[Anonymous No.55120014]

how do I stop being mindcucked by efficient market hypothesis? any time I come up with an idea my mind rationalizes how it's actually "priced in" already by smarter people.
invest in x equity/crypto? already priced in.
getting a job? already priced in.
start a business? already priced in.
move somewhere with better opportunities/cost of living? already priced in.
find a girlfriend? already priced in.
learn more gain a competitive edge? already priced in.

[Anonymous No.55120035]

>>55120014
>my mind rationalizes how it's actually "priced in" already by smarter people
Just look for those "smart people" and see whether you find them. Keep in mind Sequoia Capital gave SBF 300M, and those people surely had to be smart (I'm being given to understand).

[Anonymous No.55120198]

>>55120035
there are 7 billion people and at least a million or so or probably as smart as newton, von neumann, etc. most of them probably just decided to become cushy academics or engineers making $500k TC because they realized even they didn't have the drive to outcompete the 10k or so people in the world with real alpha

[Anonymous No.55120319]

>>55120014
You can literally debunk this in about 5 seconds. If everything was efficient, no new inventions or businesses would be able to be created

[Anonymous No.55120380]

>>55120014
>>55120319
This would be true if efficiency was the ONLY thing that matters from an evolutionary standpoint.
Which it is indeed important since there are efficient solutions for any problem, but there are also new problems arising as time goes on and you can't really fossilize on one.

[Anonymous No.55120389]

>>55120014
You're right, buying low and holding is the only way I traded my last 6k down to 700 dollars in a week.
You can't outwit the market it outwits you until you blow your brains out.

[Anonymous No.55120533]

>>55120198
Nobody like Newton could even arise in today's world. The people we call "smart" can do puzzle-solving reasonably well, but except for the abstract nature of the puzzles they solve, what they're doing is not conceptually that different from putting the square peg in the square hole, like a child would - actually what they're doing is even worse, since the child at least reasons the solution out correctly, whereas the adult gets lost in conventional bullshit (you know: there rote phrases that everyone decides about "interest rates driving the price of risk assets lower" and the like). They're just imitating what Newton did in a quite dilettante manner. If an actual Newton came along, he wouldn't be able to get a job among them, and as evidence, we can look at how knowledge hasn't fundamentally advanced in decades. Physics hasn't, despite the attempt here and there to develop some new formalism or other, made a quantum leap since Einstein, and they of course called him a crank too.

[Anonymous No.55122402]

>>55120014
Nothing is priced into the markets
That’s a fallacy that hinges on all market participants acting with the same knowledge on the same time scales which every person knows never happens

[Anonymous No.55122529]

>>55120014
this book answers your question.