BITCOIN about to take off?

[Anonymous No.54838984]

TechDev posted an interesting Bitcoin chart that I haven’t seen discussed. https://twitter.com/TechDev_52/status/1652712827117871105
In this chart he’s taking the CN10Y (10 year Chinese government bonds) and dividing it by DXY (dollar index). In doing so, he’s created a chart that roughly tracks China’s credit impulses and global liquidity cycles. He’s using the 60 weekly MA as a way to measure trend reversals (i.e. above is bullish, and below bearish) Here’s another similar chart where he simply notes when tread lines break to show the same thing
https://twitter.com/TechDev_52/status/1600987144851714050

[Anonymous No.54838990]

Each macro trend reversal on the CN10Y from bear to bull has been correlated with the large runs in Bitcoin we’ve witnessed since inception. What’s interesting is how tightly correlated the CN10Y/DXY chart is to the BTC chart when overlaid, something he illustrates here. Also interesting how CN10Y reversals have all lined up conveniently with the previous Bitcoin halving events. We know that correlation =/= causation, but the provocative thing he’s positing here is that perhaps these liquidity cycles are playing some larger role in the predictable post-halving price action than might otherwise be explained by the supply shock.

So what to make of this? Well the CN10Y chart broke bullish back in December of last year, right when the market bottomed (see first chart) - this is well before the halving schedule for roughly April of 2024. If Bitcoin’s demand side is, in fact, being spurred along by the CN10Y pivots, then we’d expect to see BTC begin to perform similarly to a post-halving run staring right now. This could have price peaking in the middle of next year and perhaps at the halving event rather than a year later as most anticipate based on prior cycle behavior.

The above will certainly rub some people the wrong way and I can empathize. Bears, macro bros and the ‘recession is imminent’ crowd have completely ruled out a tear-your-face-off sustained run this year and into early next. Similarly Bitcoin OG’s who have won by faithfully playing the 4 year cycle may find notions of a left translated cycle unsavory. I personally do not have a strong opinion about TechDev’s theory/premise and I generally don’t like single indicator narratives … but I do like that the theory has an easily measurable success and failure criteria. If BTC price is well above its prior ATH’s before the next halving, it’d lend a lot of credit to the above.

[Anonymous No.54839003]

>>54838984
>>54838990
explain this to me as if I was a single mother of 4 half negroid children

[Anonymous No.54839069]

>>54839003
Kek. My condolences Mrs.

[Anonymous No.54839158]

>>54838984
Wow, samplesize 3? That will certainly work 50% of the time all the time

[Anonymous No.54839287]

>>54839003
OP believes BTC is tied to CN10Y against the dollar, he's partially right. Truth is its just all currencies against the USD and they're all inversely correlated against the dollar. BTC included.
Chances are the halving will be a sell the news event because everyone expects it to pump during the halving now.

Oh kek, if you can hear me. Bless my ID or digits to confirm this is true.

[Anonymous No.54839339]

>>54838990
>>54838984
Thanks for the big brained post and break down anon. Breath of fresh air.

[Anonymous No.54839606]

>>54839287
most peoplw belueve btc will only pump half a year after the galving, when the supply shoetage starts

[Anonymous No.54839673]

if you spend long enough looking at charts or comparing assets you'll eventually find correlations.
it means nothing, most likely.

and why would anyone care when we all know bitcoin is going to drag the rest of the market up sometime in the next 24 months?
who cares if it happens 6 months earlier or 6 months later.

[Anonymous No.54840109]

>>54838984
We are all gonna make it

[Anonymous No.54841630]

>>54839287
>Chances are the halving will be a sell the news event because everyone expects it to pump during the halving now.
everyone expected it to pump last time too and the time before that. Nothing different now.

[Anonymous No.54841635]

>>54838984
>>54838990
does it matter? just have your stop loss in place and cut your losses if it does.

[Anonymous No.54842518]

>>54838984
Fucking nigger, I thought you were talking about the real BITCOIN, not this boomer shit.

[Anonymous No.54842625]

>>54838984
No. It will crab around 30k for months, then slowly take off. Screen cap this

[Anonymous No.54842745]

>>54842625
please let it be true, crab is the easiest to trade.

[Anonymous No.54842927]

>>54839003
China govment money dun show the way for bitcoin. When china start bussin crypto finna moon and china been lookin sheisty since december ya herd?

[Anonymous No.54842957]

>>54842625
Crab between 20k and 34k with visits to 18k and lower. Pre halving crab is always brutal

[Anonymous No.54843928]

>>54838984
>>54842518
Can't believe you're still buying shit like this lol, didn't that shit dumped long ago?
I prefer being a DEXT whale and wait for a 10x instead of losing it all with a chinese bootleg coin kek

[Anonymous No.54844033]

>>54838984
>>54838990
big if true

I cant understand the relationship between CN10Y/DXY that means the value of chinese bonds in relation to usd? so flip bullish means dollar is falling and C bonds are rising? is it the americans who park their money in btc?