/biz/ - Business & Finance

[Anonymous No.54624655]

>mortgages still 6-7%
>house prices going back up
>normies engaging in bidding wars again
that's it, i give up. it's time for plan B. i'm going to buy a $150k crap shack in my flyover hometown with a $100k down payment and hope that i'm never laid off from my wfh job. this is a far better alternative than being a house poor debtslave for the next 30 years because NIGGER CATTLE are retarded and eager to sign up for decades of DEBT SLAVERY.

[Anonymous No.54624668]

Checked, thanks for buying the top.

[Anonymous No.54624693]

>>54624655
crypto will outperform real estate. Just buy crypto, sell in like a year, and then worry about real estate

[Anonymous No.54624708]

>>54624668
i can afford to buy the top on $150k flyover home.

i can't afford to buy the top on a $375-400k """starter home""" in suburbia, when 3 years ago that same house was $275k with a monthly payment that was literally half of what it is today.

[Anonymous No.54624719]

>>54624693
the permabull federal reserve is admitting that a recession is likely. crypto is a highly speculative asset. i don't have any confidence in it doing well over the next few years. meanwhile my jewish landlord is raising my rent ANOTHER 12% at lease renewal.

[Anonymous No.54624732]

>>54624719
If you knew basic technicals you'd know we're like 1-2 months way max from btc going parabolic so long as it holds 25k

[Anonymous No.54624745]

I have conceded that I will never own a home until inheritance. So I'm not even thinking about it anymore.

[Anonymous No.54624756]

>>54624719
If you’re underwater on crypto investment you can just continue living your life. If you’re underwater on an overpriced home you still have to pay the mortgage, the taxes, the insurance, deal maintenance, etc.

[Anonymous No.54624773]

>>54624745
That’s what I decided long ago. I actually like renting now because I can move to different cities and states on a whim and have no wife or kids. When I have a family though my parents would gladly give me their house and buy a new one

[Anonymous No.54624783]

>>54624756
i make $100k/year. i can put $100k down on a $150k house, and then put every dollar of my savings into paying off the remaining $50k mortgage in <24 months.

[Anonymous No.54624793]

prices are not going up
in the US, in France and in Bulgaria prices are going down or, at best, stagnating
it's going to be a fucking clown show in 2024 as interest rates effect only show up after 12-18 months
the last suckers are being beheaded on the real estate market right now, don't follow them they will never recover from such losses

inb4: "muh housing always go up" - kys bitch

[Anonymous No.54624835]

>>54624793
>in the US, in France and in Bulgaria
>France and in Bulgaria
what the fuck are you even talking about. and yes, prices are trending back up. i live here. https://www.redfin.com/county/2369/PA/Bucks-County/housing-market

[Anonymous No.54624847]

>>54624793
kek rentie. its so over for you. the bottom is in and you will be a permanent sideline seether the shittiest trailer park trailer will cost millions of dollars in a few years

[Anonymous No.54625001]

>>54624847
>it's so over for you, I already secured my trailer in le heckin based West Virginia and I'm trying to convince my first cousin to marry me

[Anonymous No.54625056]

>>54624793
this exactly... >>54624835
bro housing prices are regional... they are so compartmentalized, that in some places neighborhoods drop, and others rise. lol you have to take it as a whole or look at certain parts of the country to dig out the data.
> t. work at real estate firm.

[Anonymous No.54625232]

>>54624835
>Bucks County

[Anonymous No.54625483]

>>54625056
>is not biased at all being a realtor
kys shoeshiner

>>54624847
I'm a homeowner 3 times, I inherited it all
Keep paying your bank's house cagie

[Anonymous No.54625830]

>>54624655
I've been saying this for the past 4 months, due to the overwhelming amount of mortgage holders locking in at 3% rate, absolutely no one will be giving that up to double their mortgage payment for less house.

The market is gonna be severely supply constricted for the foreseeable future, the only thing that will change that is massive unemployment for the homeowner class.

People are my area are engaging in bidding wars again, thank god I bought earlier.

[Anonymous No.54626033]

>>54625830
this
the supply constraint + lack of affordability just creates a bifurcated market where those who are poor are forced to buy whatever they can afford even if its complete dogshit, while those who are rich have to engage in bidding wars just to acquire a half decent property after months of searching. Excess demand has been constrained, but nonetheless housing is a basic necessity so there will always be some form of demand at play. Supply isn't showing up to overwhelm that demand, thus crab market.

[Anonymous No.54626047]

>>54625830

[Anonymous No.54626058]

>>54625483
>I'm a homeowner 3 times, I inherited it all
in that case have fun bagholding as your inheritance inevitably dwindles to nothing during the incoming housing crash, landie

[Anonymous No.54626106]

>>54626058
i will buy more at the dip and use my properties as collateral when you will be forced to eat rice and pasta during your divorce

[Anonymous No.54626127]

>>54625830
Very few people sell their homes again after only a couple of years in general so that shouldn't make too much of a difference for the time being.

[Anonymous No.54626146]

>>54626106
I like rice and pasta

[Anonymous No.54626149]

>>54626033
>if we don't sell our Bitcoin's then the market won't crash

AHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAAHHAHAHAAHAHHAA Hoomers are at the bargaining stage, one more proof that we are at complacency

[Anonymous No.54626214]

>>54626127
But very many existing homeowners refinanced during the all time low interest rate period. So it's not just recent buyers who took advantage of it.

[Anonymous No.54626355]

>>54624708
I’ve been in my starter home for 15 years. On the bright side I own it free and clear and it’s worth 2.5x what I bought it for.

[Anonymous No.54626398]

>>54624668
Heard that every year the past decade.

[Anonymous No.54626462]

>>54624655
>$100k down payment
You're fucking retarded. Buy a place with only 3% down and use the rest of your funds to fix it up/rebuild. On a fixed mortgage the liability becomes the asset, not the house. Get a nice 30yo fixed at 3-5% down and be done with it (or 0% if you can balloon the down payment to the end of the loan, some states have a program for that, others don't).

[Anonymous No.54626472]

Prices always go up April-June even in bad markets, for homes.

That is when people move!
>the Spring time

Housing inventory peaks in June and median prices drop seasonally in July-November almost every year.

This year, the drop will be significantly larger as many of the homes from the summer don't sell.

[Anonymous No.54626486]

>>54626462
>owing $96,000 is an asset

Lol the mental gymnastics

[Anonymous No.54626500]

>>54626486
It doesn't seem that way at first, but the logic is based on the inflation of the currency and at a low interest rate, you will be making your money back

[Anonymous No.54626504]

>>54626462
Jump in a volcano

[Anonymous No.54626507]

>>54626398
wew, this chart look scary

[Anonymous No.54626513]

>>54626504
Why you so mad? Are you an aussie or leaf who can't get a fixed rate?

[Anonymous No.54626552]

>>54626513
Fixed rates on 30yr loans are 7%+
Enjoy paying pure interest for the first 4-5 years with no equity.
Putting all the money into renovating precludes no pure equity payments on top of the monthly loan.

[Anonymous No.54626696]

> normies engaging in bidding wars again

Translated: Boomers are being narcissistic and greedy again aka "i'd like to buy a 6th investment property to rent out PLEASE! :) " - also corporations are in the mix adding their 30,000th house per corporation.

Be mindful that interest rates don't bother cash buyers aka boomers and corporations.

[Anonymous No.54626709]

>>54626696
>t. Foreign and domestic companies own a significant chunk of a necessity and are renting it back to the plebs as form of modern serfdom

[Anonymous No.54626721]

>>54626149

Its not going to crash. Keep laughing. No supply left. Prices will skyrocket so hard.

[Anonymous No.54626753]

>>54626721
Same words were used for Bitcoin at 69K

[Anonymous No.54627129]

>>54626552
The house isn't the asset, the mortgage is. And it's not pure interest the first 4-5, very false (it's a lot of interest but very wrong to say it's all interest). This really assumes that the dollar will tank/inflate over these 30yrs (which is a fair bet to say it will). It's basically a short on the dollar. Now the worst case is the dollar doesn't inflate, you have to refinance when rates are low again and you maybe lose a few thousands on interest over that initial close period to when you refinance. I would more look at good deals for properties more than what the rates are. If there is a property on the market that is below market value for what it is, go for it because the housing market is never going to collapse (unless everything collapses then we have bigger issues). This area dependent of course, SF for example I can see some tanking.
And renovating means you should do it yourself. If you have to contract out to get work done then you're ngmi. I will say I don't expect one of you to be able to do the plumbing for a new shower, but I do expect you to be able to install new shower doors or a new faucet, for example.

[Anonymous No.54627158]

>>54624655
You’re fucking dumb

If you want to be a rich elite, get a mortgage you dumbass.

You will always be an elite if you own property, always, and I mean like a real property, a 800k house.

[Anonymous No.54627184]

>>54624655
Bought a lil 47k fixer upper in unspoilt countryside. There's no way I'd be buying a mortgage given the choice right now with the bank of england graph being at an all time 400 year interest rate low; it's only going up now.

[Anonymous No.54627206]

>>54626753
Difference is homes have actual utility that can't be ignored. People need a place to live, period. You need to suck up enough of that demand to tank prices or enough supply of new homes. I don't think we have the rental supply at low prices to suck up that demand or even bad economic conditions to force people say back with the parents in enough numbers to plunge that demand. This is all speculative, and I personally have no skin in the game. I have a house I bought at 2019 honestly lower than what I think the value was and now it's 20-30% up from that. If prices actually tank, I buy in so I wish they really would (even though I lose a bet with a buddy, but I'll easily lose a case of beer for the chance to buy some cheaper property).

[Anonymous No.54627223]

>>54627158
this sounds like the low IQ musings of someone who is poor.

[Anonymous No.54627279]

>>54627223
You’re dumb white trash and will always be dumb white trash

[Anonymous No.54627336]

>>54627279
how much do you make and where do you live?

[Anonymous No.54627372]

>>54627129
>minimum down on FHA $300k home
>$290k loan at 7%
>4 years later, principle remaining is still $276.5k
>you've paid:
$79.5k interest in 4 years
$13.5k principle in 4 years.

It's not misleading to say you're paying nearly all interest.

[Anonymous No.54627404]

>>54627372
I realise I left out the 3% $10k down payment, but that's eaten by the 3% realtor fee and 1-2% closing costs typically associated with the loan.

[Anonymous No.54627414]

>>54627336
I’m in school right now but my dad makes 800k a year, a huge hunk comes from capita gains from Berkshire Hathaway

[Anonymous No.54627449]

>>54627372
>loan at 7%
Try 6% or lower. If you're at 7% you have a shit credit score and are retarded
>$79.5k interest in 4 years
>$13.5k principle in 4 years.
>paying nearly all interest
Its not, you literally proved yourself wrong.
>>54627404
>that's eaten by the 3% realtor fee
If you get a realtor, you're probably retarded. They are the biggest waste of space and time ever. A good one is worth that 3% but 99/100 they are just mid room iq people who won't do anything you can't do (finding homes to tour, etc). I got one for my house and it was a big waste. I told her all the homes I wanted to tour and she wasn't even that helpful when I was putting an offer out there. I was 22yo so I was helpful since I was green, but get a friend like me who has been through the trenches and can guide you and save the cash.

[Anonymous No.54627472]

A house on my street just had a bidding war and went 10% over asking price in a nice suburb in flyover land

The wealthy simply have enough cash to keep slamming buy, the poors are finished

[Anonymous No.54627533]

>>54627449
>The house isn't the asset, the mortgage is.
not the guy you're responding to, but you've already outed yourself as a complete retard yet you double down and continue to argue?

[Anonymous No.54627546]

>>54627533
Great argument. Thanks for your contribution to the debate!

[Anonymous No.54627557]

>>54627449
The only people with good credit score are pedophiles, and they are the dumbest trashiest people alive

[Anonymous No.54627579]

>>54627557
>The only people with good credit score are pedophiles
What kind of retarded logic is this? Mine is north of 700 at 22yo and all it took was getting a credit card and paying it off (which you should be throwing everything on anyways for the free cash back).

[Anonymous No.54627583]

>>54627472
Housing is very cheap in every U.S state

[Anonymous No.54627596]

>>54627579
I’ve never been in debt, I’ve always paid my credit card back in time, often early. I overdrafted it at 18 but paid it off within 3 hours.

That alone was enough to permanently sick my credit score below 600 for life.

[Anonymous No.54627618]

>>54627546
accounting standards designate an asset as something which provides future economic benefits. there's a reason why homes are depreciated (i.e. recognizing the extraction of useful economic value over a period of time) and not the mortgage -- because the mortgage is a liability.

also mortgages are generally between 6-7%, not "6% and lower." i say this as someone with no debt and an 840 FICO (real FICO, not niggerlicious transunion or other simulated scores.)

[Anonymous No.54627670]

>>54627596
You're full of shit. I overdraft my credit card all the time and all I get is a message on my phone saying "you're over your limit but we've approved the purchase anyways."

[Anonymous No.54627694]

>>54627596
>overdrafted
You can't overdraft a CC, that's a bank term.
>>54627596
>alone was enough to permanently sick my credit score below 600 for life
I highly doubt that. You probably have other shit to fuck up your credit score.
>>54627618
>mortgage is a liability
It's an asset if you look at it from a broader economic viewpoint, as I've stated. It's about the same as a short position, which is an asset. If you want to argue that the dollar won't inflate over 30yrs, I would love to hear the argument, but assuming it will does lead my thinking to be correct.
>>54627618
>homes are depreciated
Not are your personal dwelling. There's upkeep but I argue they shouldn't be because while there is upkeep, you do not zero out a house, really ever. It's not like a car where it will eventually break. Maybe I would zero out a house over 100+ years.
>not "6% and lower."
That's what rates are now for people with good credit

[Anonymous No.54627731]

>>54627694
>It's an asset if you look at it from a broader economic viewpoint, as I've stated.
no, you're unequivocally wrong. also consider that net worth is defined as assets less liabilities. when calculating your net worth, do you perform the operation: mortgage balance (what you are defining as an asset) less the FMV of your home (what you are defining as a liability), yielding a negative net worth?

[Anonymous No.54627735]

unfortunately its honestly probably not going to stop at this rate until we have a legitimate market crash or recession.

[Anonymous No.54627828]

>>54627731
>no, you're unequivocally wrong
Great argumennt.
>less the FMV of your home
Not a factor. The house doesn't matter, you could be getting a 30yr low interest loan for whatever and it's basically the same, the underlying asset purchased doesn't matter. You're buying now assuming your purchasing power will be less in the future. To give an idea, $100 in 2053 at 3% inflation rate is worth $41 today, or a -58.80% cumulative inflation rate. That's a conservative estimate at 3%. The logic is you're getting dollars now that are worth more than the ones in the future when you are paying it off. At worst, you're breaking even, at best you're making money and again we aren't looking at the actual underlying asset (the home).

[Anonymous No.54628393]

>>54627670
Yeah you’re bullshitting

Your credit score would be below 400

[Anonymous No.54628678]

>>54624793
>>54626058
>HOUSING WILL CRASH IN COUNTRIES WITH INFINITE SHITSKIN MIGRATION
t. retards

[Anonymous No.54628736]

>>54626507
It doesn't, at all, when you realize
1. The money supply has doubled
2. The population has massively increased
3. The amount of money wagies are making is way up

[Anonymous No.54628746]

>>54628678
bulgaria has the fastest shrinking population in the world

[Anonymous No.54628780]

>>54628746
Ok. I don't live in fucking Bulgaria.

[Anonymous No.54628781]

>>54628746
Good.
Death to America.
Death to Israel.
Death to Bulgaria.

[Anonymous No.54629536]

>>54624655
>shack in my flyover hometown
Curious to know around what area?

[Anonymous No.54629695]

>>54628736
4. Sub-4% mortgages for a decade which increased purchasing power
5. Inventory being suppressed by sellers who don't want to give up their sub-4% rate.

People in their 20s have been calling for a housing crash for a decade now. Homes are selling again.

[Anonymous No.54629748]

>>54626355
ok boomer (unironically)

[Anonymous No.54629765]

>>54626355
>he didn't do a cash out refinance in 2020-21 at 2.5%
>instead, he paid his home off early

Congrats on your middle class lifestyle.

[Anonymous No.54629873]

housing is stagnant at best, least in my area

[Anonymous No.54629880]

>>54627184
>all time 400 year interest rate low
They've been tracking interest rates for 400 years? They know what the interest rate was in the year the First Folio was published?

[Anonymous No.54629890]

>>54625483
who the fuck said i'm a realtor. you seem like you know what youre talking about huh? lol

[Anonymous No.54629894]

>>54629536
bradford county, pennsylvania

[Anonymous No.54629944]

>>54624732
If you knew exactly when Bitcoin goes parabolic you wouldn't be browsing biz in the basement right now

[Anonymous No.54629950]

>>54624732
Realistically, considering every halving has resulted in a smaller pump than the previous one (IIRC 100x, 30x and 6x if you compare the day of the halving to the next ATH) we shouldn't expect more than 2x whatever the price is in a year. Let's say we get back to the previous ATH, so about $69k. We would expect the next ATH to be somewhere around $140k. So you can ~5x if you start buying BTC now. That is definitely better than housing, stonks and boomer rocks but not "parabolic". ETH might do better though. LTC->BTC->ETH is my play.

[Anonymous No.54630013]

>>54627206

People will always need a place to live. Housing market to the moon! Get outpriced zoomers.

[Anonymous No.54630016]

>>54626500
Inflation eats your debt, but it also eats your salary and currently it eats every asset as well. Your debt doesn't inflate away in that case, you're still getting poorer over time.

[Anonymous No.54630032]

>>54630016
>eats your salary
Your ability to negotiate for a raise or not is independent of the debt.

[Anonymous No.54630053]

>>54629950

Oh please housing market too strong and powerful. Housing market to the moon.

[Anonymous No.54630272]

>>54630053
Housing isn't gonna beat crypto over the next 2 years.

>>54630032
What's your point? I got a raise above inflation, most people won't. Telling those people to take on debt at high interest rates because inflation will eat it is dumb because their debt/assets ratio will get worse as the real value of their income and assets is sinking faster than the debt. If your mortgage rate is 5% and inflation is 10% (UK figures) while you get no raise, crabbing stocks, max 4% yield from savings account/MMFs/bonds/dividend stocks then you're getting poorer by having the debt.

[Anonymous No.54630313]

>>54630053
>housing market too strong and powerful
H-HOUSINGO MARKET-SAN...
>Konbanwa, curyputo-kun, or should I say, oyasumi?! NANI?! How did you appreciate 10% in what appeared to be mere seconds?
Omae wa mou shindeiru, housing-marketo-san...

[Anonymous No.54630327]

im simply refusing to buy

[Anonymous No.54630358]

>>54625830
Ever heard of divorce or moving for a job?

[Anonymous No.54630366]

>>54624732
TA doesn’t work you brainlet

[Anonymous No.54630392]

>>54624835
>>54624835
This

I can see it on my local market too, price stagnate or go lower and even then people dont buy, nothing, no sells, RE market takes longer to react, could be another 2 years before we see any big effect

Best action for now is to horde cash and wait to buy cheapies

[Anonymous No.54630397]

>>54630272
>most people won't
False, yes they will.
>debt/assets ratio will get worse as the real value
False

[Anonymous No.54630416]

>>54625830
Boomers will start dying or moving into retirement homes in large numbers in about 5-7 years. Just hold on until then.

[Anonymous No.54630550]

>>54630313

Two more weeks. Its never crashing.

[Anonymous No.54630666]

>>54630416
And then donate their home's to charity or remortgage them.

[Anonymous No.54630687]

>>54624756
When you rent you pay all that anyway, with zero potential capital gain after years of making the landlord rich.

[Anonymous No.54630768]

>>54627449
If banks get 5% for doing nothing, they aren't giving you a 6% mortgage even with perfect credit. U r rart.

[Anonymous No.54630778]

>>54624655
>he didn't buy the housing bottom
NGMI

[Anonymous No.54630786]

>>54630397
>False, yes they will.
Lol. Wages can't increase above inflation in general if inflation is going to come down.

>False
How is it false?

>>54630550
>Two more weeks
God just let this meme die already.

>Its never crashing
It doesn't have to. Crypto already outperformed everything else for the rest of the year. It will continue to outperform until the end of next year at least.

[Anonymous No.54630816]

Normies would rather have their kneecaps broken then make a smart decision that doesn't benefit them short term. There's a reason the term, "NPC" has become so popular. It's an epidemic of mediocrity, aphantasia-bound, rule-followers.

[Anonymous No.54632107]

>>54630366

Keep on losing, big boy.

[Anonymous No.54632145]

>>54624655
Pay for the land, location and expectations for the future.