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/biz/ - Business & Finance

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54341039 No.54341039 [Reply] [Original]

Will the housing market crash in my lifetime? (pls say yes)

>> No.54341057

>>54341039
It's crashing right now

>> No.54341079

>>54341039
Nope, demographics and the rate lock effect will ensure they don’t. There is a structural undersupply of homes vs the enormous amount of 28-33yo millennials (baby boom 2.0) looking to buy homes.

>> No.54341142

>>54341057
Aren’t prices still rising tho?

>> No.54341200

>>54341039
housing bubble 1 and 2 are one and the same.
>>54341079
what demographics? the prime working age population is shrinking in the usa

>> No.54341208

>>54341039
Just assume that it won't and go about your life with that assumption, else you will be wasting decades "waiting for the crash".

>> No.54341358

>>54341079
how many people are ageing into 28-33 demographic vs dying?
housing prices are being propped up mostly by immigration

so only way housing crashes if is western governments stop replacing their citizenry en masse

>> No.54341428

>>54341142
For the nice areas yes. Everyone started to slurp right as interest rates went down slightly this past week.

>> No.54341429

>>54341358
There's no actual shortage of housing. There's probably 10 empty apartments for every single homeless person in NYC. What you have is an artificial scarcity problem with Airbnb, banks colluding with realtors to keep prices extremely high to be more profitable, zombie houses, and foreigners, flippers, and (((blackrock))).

>> No.54341452

>>54341039
Yes, but not anywhere anyone wants to live

>> No.54341491

>>54341039
when nuclear bombs hit the housing will be worth zero, if you survive, houses will cost a couple years salary.

>> No.54341614

>>54341039
If inventory wasn't so low, maybe.
Honestly, expecting this crash to happen anytime soon is a huge cope. I was even apart of that cope up until very recently.
Fact is, there aren't many good homes available, and there aren't many good homes being built.
Now with all this financial fuckery happening, the dollar is becoming worth less. And Fast.
No one who bought property at super low interest rates a few years back are going to sell.
Everything is marked up and it fucking sucks because it's probably gonna go up even higher. The "crash" that happens will most likely just take the house prices back down to where they are right now.
>>54341208
This is the best advice, and it was something that took me months to accept.

>>54341429
>There's no actual shortage of housing.
>blackrock

"Shortage" or "artificial scarcity", it doesn't matter what words you use. There are not enough homes for REGULAR PEOPLE to buy. Of course you can blame all the reasons you listed (which are all valid reasons) but that doesn't change this dismal housing reality.

>> No.54341654

>>54341039
Forecasts suggest a drop of 50% in real money value, if not nominal value.

>> No.54341767

>>54341614
>>54341208
desu if you waitfor one crash in one market and bank everything on that you are legitimately retarded. diversify, even if you believe it'll kapoot

>> No.54341802

>>54341614
>No one who bought property at super low interest rates a few years back are going to sell.
based on what? not even close to reality.

>> No.54341812
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54341812

>>54341039
I don't think it'll "crash" because the value of the dollar has tank significantly and there's so many more people and not enough inventory being built

>> No.54341849

>>54341802
Based on the reality of how foolish it would be to sell something you bought at 2% and have to buy back in much higher.
Do you personally know anyone who would sell their property that was attained at such a low rate? Tell me what reality is to you.
I really do want to know where you're coming from, because last month I was saying what you're saying now. What do you think is going to happen?

>>54341767
Exactly, it's a silly thing to bank on, especially since it seems like an entire generation is doing exactly that

>> No.54341898

>>54341491
Probably not? Assuming a counterforce with limited countervalue targeting doctrine then many metro areas would be untouched excepting for EMP effects. As such further assuming no/lifted internal population movement (which may take a year, may never come depending on the style of U.S. regime in the aftermath) the places not directly struck would likely see at least a retention of value in wage/labor hour or gold oz. terms.

>> No.54341908
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54341908

>>54341039
Yes, but you wont be able to afford a house since your wagie money will be close to worthless

>> No.54342142

>>54341039
>>54341614
>Everything is marked up and it fucking sucks because it's probably gonna go up even higher. The "crash" that happens will most likely just take the house prices back down to where they are right now.
27% drop after a 300% rise. Yes, we are in a recession. Yes, it's almost certainly going to get worse. Yes, housing prices will crash. No, Housing prices will never again be as affordable as they were in 2012.

Banks will continue to buy more single family real estate. People will continue to need more residential property. Cities will only place increasingly onerous restrictions on building. Anyone who has a mortgage below the Federal inflation target has no incentive to sell.

>> No.54342234

>>54342142
>Yes, housing prices will crash. No, Housing prices will never again be as affordable

This is the information that more people need to understand. The prices will crash but that doesn't mean anything if the bottom of the crash is the highest its ever been. It's just one ATH falling to the last one. Fuck.
>Banks will continue to buy more single family real estate.
This is the harsh reality. Your whole post is. Thanks for putting what I was trying to say into better words anon

>> No.54342265

>>54341039
>More and more people born everyday
>Less and less land for all of them to live

Hmm

>> No.54342374

>>54341057
Yeah, in Gary Indiana. Have fun.

>> No.54342387

>>54341802
>based on what? not even close to reality.
If inflation is 8% and your mortgage is 2% the purchasing power you loose from paying of your mortgage is negative. But if you're retarded you don't understand that.

>> No.54342415

>>54342387
kek your response to him is much better than mine

>> No.54342763

>>54341200
>prime working age population is shrinking in the usa
That's not a problem when you can inject as many subtropical consumers as you need to keep demand up

>> No.54343145

>>54342142
> Anyone who has a mortgage below the Federal inflation target has no incentive to sell.

doesn’t mean people won’t be forced to. Consider all of the boomers who are retired but have little to no retirement saved and living off of social security. Their cost of living keeps going up a la inflation, property tax, etc. yet their income barely rises. It’s drastically understated how bad the boomer retirement crisis is.
Prob 90% of var rate mortgages will default so that’s inventory coming soon. The real red herring is the amount of HELOCs that were taken out over the last few years as Airbnb investors bought 1 property and immediately took out a HELOC, which are nearly all variable interest rate, to buy more rental properties. Now short-term rental demand is way down and Airbnb hosts are left holding the bag, unable to pay their mortgages. You can actually help bankrupt Airbnb/real estate investors and force residential housing inventory come back to market simply by refusing to use sites like Airbnb. Everyone I know who is still traveling (many are not) have switched to hotels, hostels, or creative alternatives. Fuck the $200 cleaning fee I ain’t paying that shit and taking the linens off.

Finally, immigrants being funneled to the US are NOT creditworthy potential homebuyers. They’re generally poor, rarely even have jobs, no credit, maybe not even bank accounts. They are not competing for homes to buy, they need rentals and low-income ones at that.

I don’t know if there will be a crash, if anything it’ll be driven by commercial RE which is a ticking time bomb, the amount of vacancies a la remote work and COVID crushing many SMBs has some cities at like 50% vacancy. The shoe will drop eventually, maybe by 2024, and will cascade into residential. Also, commercial RE investors will be forced to consider rezoning some properties into residential to avoid selling at a major loss or being cash flow negative indefinitely.

>> No.54343163

>>54341079
>demographics
Population is shrinking almost everywhere except Africa

>> No.54343259

>>54341767
your first house isn't an investment, it's a place to live.