[ 3 / biz / cgl / ck / diy / fa / ic / jp / lit / sci / vr / vt ] [ index / top / reports ] [ become a patron ] [ status ]
2023-11: Warosu is now out of extended maintenance.

/biz/ - Business & Finance

View post   

File: 89 KB, 1257x714, tipos fed vs sp500.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
54305274 No.54305274 [Reply] [Original]

I have 500k € in cash after getting out of the market at a decent move. My question right now is, doesn't this chart tell you the stock market should crater the fuck out in the following 6(?) months? For how longer can the FED keep raising rates before it begins? this is the highest rate ever, because it's not only the number, but the speed, and the number in any case is near that sort of psychological limit of 6%, to get any higher you have to go back to the pre-internet era (90's) which I don't see viable in the current environment. So, the pivot should be very close, which historically means stock market crashing. It will go to covid levels? we'll see, in any case, cheaper prices coming.

The question: Where the fuck do you allocate the 500k € while this doesn't happen? Options:

1) I keep eating inflation but in return I have big amount of dry powder ready to start getting in the market at increasinly cheaper prices

2) Buy gold. The figure 2. Gold beat the stock market from july 2008 to september 2013. But after september 2013, it has been lossing vs the stock market. Is this really worth it? It crashed fast, then started lossing vs sp500. What if you just keep buying the stock market during this time DCAing in?
Silver was

3) BTC: This thing is yet to show it can decouple from the stock market. When FED pivots and the market crashed as it should, who is to say BTC will not crash too? is yet to be seen if people will be buying during recession. Of course, it's fucking fantastic the deusion of shitcoiners not seeing that if BTC successfully acted as a financial black hole and went to $100k, $200k or whatever the fuck, they would just ban exchanges and the price will crash instantly due liquidity crunch and lack of conversion into anything relevant (real state, stocks, or anything that improves your life quality in general, plus ban in cash).

4) Real state: bubbled and will crash during recesion

5) Bonds: not sure how this works


>> No.54305325

25% gold 25% cash/short duration gov paper 50% crypto (btc/eth/link)

>> No.54305420

How did you make your 500K and not know the answer to this question.

>> No.54305470
File: 160 KB, 1716x939, Screenshot 2023-03-18 at 20-00-45 Stocks vs. Gold - 126 Year Chart Longtermtrends.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]

Here's the chart of gold vs stock market

As you can see, it crashed fast, you had to get out. Would you have gotten out? how do you know it's time to get out? if you didn't you would have been bagholding since 2013.

50% in crypto is retarded, specially ETH and link. And BTC can get banned at any random time, it's an obvious "black swan".

>> No.54305486

Because im not a zoomer that made his money gambling shitcoins.

>> No.54306501


>> No.54306530

because this is a glow thread

>> No.54306565

I really don't see how btc could btc be "banned" after multiple government agencies have acknowledged its existence, literally for a decade. The US government has itself sold hundreds of millions of dollars of btc.

Stronger case for the government killing eth and link

>> No.54306607

If you don't have a clear view, option one is most prudent. With that said most large euro markets have reasonable p/e so you can DCA in if you want.