Banking Crisis

[Anonymous No.54301452]

https://youtu.be/5s2bS3k9YpU

Joseph- Gives detailed explanations to why he believes what he believes

Randy - Makes vague comments. Tell ls you to trust him because it's his business. Doesn't give any details.
>"I got a text message from a guy and we're going to find out why SVB really collapsed later on."
Okay... how about you give us some details asshole? I can't stand these types of people.

[Anonymous No.54301464]

>>54301452
Didn't click. Everyone else is stupid. Banks will fall like dominoes the more that the fed raises rates. More banks failing means higher chance of a hard pivot means pumps btc more and more until the full on pivot
simple as

[Anonymous No.54301465]

>>54301452
I feel that Joseph is that kind of guy who might not appreciate the pervasiveness of all sorts of schizophrenia in today's society.
He can talk for an hour, laying out the mechanics of credit creation and PnL, and then some guy just says
>things are coming out, believe me. BIGLY

[Anonymous No.54301483]

>>54301464
>markets rally after a pivot bro
holy newfag

[Anonymous No.54301487]

>>54301483
Nigger we're already rallying do to banks failing which in turn is due to markets anticipating a pivot

[Anonymous No.54301499]

>>54301487
*due
Also I don't give a shit what some youtuber you watch says. As of now, btc charts are slowly flipping bullish

[Anonymous No.54301543]

>>54301487
The pivot is a delusional fantasy. I imagine they will pivot at some point, but that'll be due to some systemic failure, not discretionary, and at that point, the cheaper short-term credit is not going to help much in an unstable economy. You just get these mini-rallies that are partly incorrectly attributed to the mythical pivot (like when Binance sold stablecoins for BTC recently), and are partly caused by the belief in muh pivot in 2 more weeks. Nonetheless, these are spasms, not something you can build anything on.

[Anonymous No.54301578]

>>54301543
>The pivot is a delusional fantasy.
It's not, retard hence why he's being more of a pussy with the rates themselves. He can't go much harder with them because he'll cause even more banks to fail and when too many start to shit, they'll have literally no choice but to embrace the money printing machine again. This isn't me being delusional. It's called using your fucking head.

[Anonymous No.54301610]

>>54301578
I'm going to sleep now fyi

[Anonymous No.54301640]

>>54301465

I don't hate Randy, or anything like that. This is my furdt time listening to him. It was a great discussion overall, but I'm tired of the vague bullshit.

>"This is my business, so I know what I'm talking about."
>"Just trust me on this."
>"We're not going to get inti the details."
>"I got a text message from a guy that knows way more about what's going on."

Like, motherfucker, go into the details. Why do you think you're being interviewed?

[Anonymous No.54301701]

>>54301578
They at the Fed have the same information you have. It can be reasoned out that increasing interest rates decreases the MtM value of bonds by causing a dip. Since banks hold bonds, the asset-side of their balance sheets goes down, and since they take deposits (=they take on debt), they are levered. Leverage plus the adverse movement in assets thus wipes them out, which is why they had to institute the BTFP - to prevent the loss on their balance sheets. The fact that they did institute it signals their intention to backstop losses which their own actions are causing and thus, having eliminated that consequence of their actions, they can keep doing it.
The point of these rate hikes (besides being political theater) is to cause demand to slow down, which is accomplished by destroying spending power. There isn't a destruction in spending power without a reduction in the flow of credit, which, in turn, is accomplished by making banks stop lending. Since they won't do so voluntarily, they have to be forced, by destroying the value of their assets (bonds). The BTFP is there to prevent the complete collapse, but the aim is nonetheless this destruction.
By decreasing the value of assets on banks' balance sheets (while debt stays the same), the Fed is increasing the leverage ratio of banks, thus making them more likely to fail, at least when it comes to their ability to create further credit.
This isn't a surprise to the Fed, this is the whole point of the exercise.

[OP (if my ID changed) No.54302714]

>>54301701

I love your well reasoned explanation Anon. It's very rare on here.

[Anonymous No.54304355]

>>54302714
Thanks. While I try to reason it out, I of course can't be sure anything I'm saying is correct, it's just my ordinary analysis of the situation.