/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>54225639
The S&P500 is forward looking. Current events rarely matter unless they are unexpected.

/thread

>>54225639
that's why DCAing into VOO etc. is the end all be all advice.

>>54225639
I think there's still too much liquidity even after all the rate hikes. A lot of it is with big players that put it in the stock market. It might be a sign of income inequality. Poors getting poorer rich getting richer and putting it in the stock market. I wonder what happens next.

>>54225658
What about the MSCI World? it increases diversification even more. Also im in Spain and we have fiscal benefits if you use funds and not ETFs.

Also what about bonds? bogleheads add global bonds to try reduce volatility but im wondering what the fuck is the deal with bonds when they tank along the market as well it seems. Pic rel.

>>54225846
Well but even if it were to crash, what's a better idea than DCAing throught the crash in there?
Even if you were to go into PM's they suck, look at 2008. You should have just DCAing throught the recession and enjoy the gains later.

>>54225944
Oh yeah i have no idea :)) I was answering OP, I am an europoor. I hold gld, slv and cash. I don't like the idea of investing in stocks. They have a bad vibe.

>>54226044
Im OP and euro too.
Looking at the chart I posted the stock market seem to beat gold and silver ever since the internet became more widespread.

>>54226044
It sounds good. The only bad scenario is a crash and it staying low for years which is unlikely because it means the economy will be shut for years and the gov can't afford that. There'd be rioting n stuff. Just my opinion.

>>54225639
The fed must be pumping money into it to keep it from crashing, our dollars get less valuable by the day

>>54225639
Market expects contractionary monetary policy to be cancelled
The printer is being turned on again

>>54226104
Oh yeah I wasn't paying attention to the id. It beats pms because pms are artificially supressed and i think a pm boom will happen in our lifetimes. If i had like 100k i'd have these problems but i don't have that kinds money so i just have my emergency pms and cash.

>>54226104
>>54226202
Why not real estate if you have money? Land, house? I'm more prepper minded but i'd rather have real estate than stocks.

>>54225639
We are in clown market where
>bad news happens
>people interpret this as signs that fed will start easing
>people start pumping
>market pumps every time something breaks

Nothing burgers I checked and everything looks fine. If anything everything is still too expensive and needs a bigger correction

>>54226243
Well because real estate seems in a bubble itself right now also im too lazy to do all the IRL stuff in terms of buying a house, rent it and so on, also your real state value isn't real until it meets a buyer, not liquid enough, this makes me kinda paranoid. Also people could stop paying, and laws here to kick them out are insanity, also occupation is an issue, also your neighbour may be decent but turns out into a not so desirable place eventually, I don't know i don't like real state unless it's a dream house I want to actually live in and these cost like 1,000,000€

I have to decide what to do with the cash since ive got more than 100k in banks now.

>>54226300
right so you dont believe this narrative of BTC acting now as a legit safe haven for a banking crisis and it's just discounting current rates and buying into easy money again?

so if the fed really pivots would btc go up?

but when the fed pivots, markets tend to crash a lot, so i dont see how this narrative of buying into easy money again works, since when the pivot happens, stock market crashed look at 2008, and then BTC should crash too due panic widespread into all asset classes, perhaps except bond but i dont get how the fuck bonds work, its some weird concept to me, afaik you would need to go all in on bonds to get a good interest rate, which becomes fixed. if you buy bonds at say 5% at 3 years, it means you get 5% yearly for 3 years? or what.

>>54226198
but wouldn't that push inflation even further? the fuck
I havent checked but i doubt when fed started pivoting in 2008 the inflation was as high as it is now which would mean we would have inflation + pivoting fed = hyperinflation? holy

so what then?

>>54226300
It's because the market is being lied to by the Fed, Administration, and corporate media about the 100% likelihood that a recession is coming. The market should be bracing for a recession but isn't. On one hand, it doesn't believe Powell when he says he will hike and maintain rates as long as needed. On the other, the market does believe him when he says there will be a soft landing. It's why it's so confused.
It's not a clown market. The market is being clowned.

>>54225639
S&P is down since monetary tightening began.
My expectation is that S&P will be flat or up slightly for some weeks. It may even make a little 5% gain when Jpow publicly capitulates on rates this week. The major indices are being plunge protected while the big boys arrange their exits. by June, stocks will crater.

Because the bulk of what makes up the SP500 are companies that are still doing well in this money-printing environment. Only the largest of banks are on the SP500, and they are not only unaffected by what's taking out these small banks, they are thriving because the Fed goes to them to off load some of this bad debt.
SP500 will drop this week a bit when the Fed raises rates, but then it should continue to climb unless something catastrophic happens.

>>54226654
So what do you hold in june?

>>54225639
Bros. Should I get VOO or fidelity ETF? Does it matter at all? They seem almost equal, somewhat depending on time. I use fidelity if that matters

>>54225639
Nothing goes in a straight line.

It's crashing up. Not only they're printing money ($100bn for CS recently), we're in a time good for new construction (houses are expensive). More money in the system means higher prices. Of course the stocks won't outperform inflationary things because you get the money but don't get the production so you don't invest in the S&P although it's going up, you invest in things like energy and commodities

>>54225639
everything is priced in

>>54225639
Because lulz, that's why
And also it's just fun for the big $ folks
It's life or death to us little folk
Which is also a source of lulz for the big $ folks

>>54226044
that explains why you are poor. shiny rock retards never learn