Next Bank to Fail?

[Anonymous No.54104536]

Ok so hear me out. The main issue the banks have been facing is the declining value of their long dated bonds which are HTM because otherwise they're huge unrealized losses. So of the banks getting hit still, despite the black magic from WH/fed, who is holding the most turds the government will not buy? The BTFP is for government securities, so corporate bonds are still fair game, if I get this right. Those bonds are still also shit and it's not like the private sector isn't aware of how interest rates work. Who's next?

[Anonymous No.54104592]

>>54104536
That's a man

[Anonymous No.54104700]

>>54104536
>so corporate bonds are still fair game, if I get this right.
that's weird I was thinking about all of the high grade corporate this morning

I really think the commercial MBS is dragging down a lot of these corporates who are high tranche but the ratings agencies don't want to downgrade them

so even if a bank has no unrealized losses on the HTM the AFS high grade corporate is actually dogshit and probably an even higher risk since there isn't an obvious hedge instrument for it

[Anonymous No.54104841]

>>54104592
lol no that was some lsd maker's love slave. Crazy story.

>>54104700
I mean I know how I'd hedge a long mbs position, but the best hedge is not playing around with that shit. You're right on the money. This really is 2008 all over again. A bunch of banks are sitting on a bunch of toxic mbs, only they have more obviously toxic government stuff. MBS is opaque at best, plus we had the forclosure moratorium. Forclosures start getting serious, property values drop, and the rates they're locked in at make the paper worthless. Would uncle sleepy sign off on buying toxic mbs?

What happens after the next bank failure...

[Anonymous No.54104857]

>>54104536
Next bank to fail will be the fed

[Anonymous No.54104884]

>>54104841
back when vice wasnt complete horseshit. is neurosoup still around?

[Anonymous No.54104911]

Santander

[Anonymous No.54104957]

>>54104841
MBS, CMBS, Auto-loan Asset-backed Securities too. It's not even the same as 2008. During 2008, a significant amount of MBS were supported by variable rate mortgages and people became unable to pay because of the rates changing. This time, inflation has wiped out everyone's ability to pay anything on their loans. Most asset-backed securities looked good this time because they checked their risk. However, who could account for runaway inflation?

[Anonymous No.54104984]

>>54104536
Impropper gas seal. Also, the tag is still over the filter, so with a propper seal, seal, it would suffocate them.
>inb4 focus on the chick
Thats a man.

[Anonymous No.54105016]

>>54104841
yeah we're boned

>>54104957
I've been following ABS too, that's such a shit-show. Problem is I can't find any data on repos other than numbers. I don't think the ABS stuff is quite as bad as the MBS because that capital can be redeployed fairly quickly, but there's still a lot of retards rolling around in their big trucks with negative equity.

IIRC the Fed just changed how the CPI model deals with auto, so that might end up being the match that starts the fire....if they're trying to downplay that this late in the game it might also be a feint considering my prior paragraph

[Anonymous No.54105090]

>>54105016
They have changed how CPI is calculated a few times over the last couple years, too, trying to make it look better than it is. True CPI is probably about double what's being reported now.

[Anonymous No.54105204]

>>54104536
>Banks
>Fail
lol
lmao
bailouts go brrrt

[Anonymous No.54105544]

>>54105204
we are at 3 already, you saw how the bank stocks still got clobbered even w/ bailout and pivot.

>>54105016
ABS are a bit safer, first they're made at higher rates, second the vehicle most of the time does retain its value well enough. I bought a truck in 2020, its value has doubled. You're not wrong, I just think that those assets are more designed to handle high failure rates.

>>54104957
My guess is the smart money knows this since its not rocket science and is planning on riding the banks to their knees if they can make money doing it.

>>54104884
No clue but I remember the circles I learned about that stuff in with fondness.

[Anonymous No.54105627]

>>54104911
BSMX 5 Apr PUT is ask .1 right now, hmmm

[Anonymous No.54105683]

Bank of America, by friday next week

[Anonymous No.54105700]

>>54104536
Ally Financial is next. Next BIG one. Screencap this.

[Anonymous No.54105824]

>>54104911
second time I see something about santander being next. care to explain?

[Anonymous No.54105906]

>>54104536
Fed is raising interest rates to defend the dollar from Russia-China - its an economic war also. Some smaller banks will fail, they will be bought up through the big banks which are part of the Fed. This allows the big banks to grow bigger and increase their control, fucks over many "small people" and makes the rich richer. Fed will continue to increase rates and just create money to pay off the rich investors so they are not harmed. If the Fed stopped rate increases the dollar will weaken and the rate of global dedollarization with increase. China is stepping up and peace maker, team builder, US replacer in the Middle East and Ukraine, while the US is throwing all its military and financial resources at Ukraine and losing it all to Russia.

Based missile silo orgy girl

[Anonymous No.54105989]

>>54105906
>Fed will continue to increase rates and just create money to pay off the rich investors so they are not harmed.
This doesn't make sense. The investors didn't get saved at SVB only the depositors. Also, printing money to pay off the investors defeats the purpose of increasing the interest rates to fight inflation.

[Anonymous No.54106093]

>>54104536
Announcing protecting all bank deposits means preventing bank runs aka never having to backstop deposits at all.

[Anonymous No.54106310]

>>54106093
they announced that sunday. Monday these banks got beaten like they owed a serbian guy money. The market clearly disagrees with your thesis.

[Anonymous No.54106359]

>>54104536
Weird stuff anon

[Anonymous No.54106375]

Hey guys, is this website accurate in its estimate?
https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/ratio/BAC-PD/Probability-Of-Bankruptcy

[Anonymous No.54106395]

>>54104536
>>54106359
here she is today
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4M3MshvFoYs

[Anonymous No.54106433]

>>54104536
are banks in self-preservation mode yet like in 2008? i'm not an econfag, so what are the indicators? libor? credit default swaps?

[Anonymous No.54106458]

>>54105989
>This doesn't make sense.
If you listen to what they say it does not make sense. If you watch what they do in the context of the economic war between the US v Russia-China it makes sense. Look at the big picture. And, the Fed does not give a shit about inflation, the Fed creates inflation then adjusts the methods for calculating inflation to hide the inflation they create. Look up why the fed created Hedonics to switch out the price of steak for the price of chicken to reduce the cost of food in the CPI. The US is losing control of dollar hegemony which is needed to fund the military which is used to force countries to accept the dollar and kneel to washington, But countries are so fed up with how they have been treated and how the US exports its inflation to them they are moving away from the dollar. You can see the split if you are paying attention to global geopolitics.

[Anonymous No.54106516]

>>54106359

[Anonymous No.54106530]

>>54106433
>what are the indicators?
the real data is hidden because of national security. There was a big break in the reverse repo market in September 2019. Banks generally lend to each other overnight so they can "balance their books" for a few hours and offer up collateral for the loan. But no banks trusted each others collateral (a lot of bonds for chinese companies and chinese real estate) so the reverse repo market froze and (somewhere about $10 billion in overnight loans) but due to the mistrust and failing collateral all banks needed over night loans so the Fed had to step in and accept any and all collateral no questions asked and the fed was loaning $1 trillion over night to save the banking system. The Fed and Treasury will never tell you whats' really going on they just lie, they have to lie. Its a house of cards and the Fed is throwing money all over the place to keep it from falling. Its lasted a few decades longer than I thought so I just sit and wait. I already made all my prepartions so I don't care when it implodes.

[Anonymous No.54106570]

>>54106530
Reverse repo is loaning over $2 trillion in Treasury bonds every day now, around 100 participants.

[Anonymous No.54106594]

>>54106395
It's crazy how hair, clothes and makeup can change a 4 into a 7.

[Anonymous No.54106754]

>>54106310
>Monday these banks got beaten like they owed a serbian guy money.
They didn't promise to save shareholders and management, dipstick.

[Anonymous No.54106935]

>>54106754
not saying they did, in fact i'm looking to profit off the fact that they won't save future bank shareholders either.

Also, (you) should probably never money from serbians.

[Anonymous No.54106970]

>>54104536
Did you not see that the Fed opened up their window so any of these banks can dump these securities into the Fed and receive par value back no matter what the price is in the market? A bond trading at .85 is getting the full 1.0 at the window.

[Anonymous No.54106998]

>>54106935
Just admit you're rather intoxicated

[Anonymous No.54107164]

>>54106458
That's all true, but US wasn't the only one creating inflation, the BoJ and ECB were far worst offenders and China too had tons of easy money propping up their real estate bubble.

[Anonymous No.54107183]

>>54106530
I've heard what started it was Jamie Simon said go fuck yourself to some Europeans who offered negative yielding European bonds for repo collateral.

[Anonymous No.54107704]

>>54106594
to be fair she's now 20 years older. I don't think she looks bad for going on 40 for a druggie since she doesn't use the usual tricks women use like fake eyelashes, botox/lip fillers and shit tons of make up.

[Anonymous No.54107804]

>>54104841
Would gas her.

[Anonymous No.54107815]

>>54104592
nah that's neurosoup girl. i bet she was fun to fuck back then. she cheated on the mdma king who gave her everything then the simp and girl tortured the guy to near death. she ended up ditching both of them. the simp went to jail and she went off scot free lol because she's not a man

[Anonymous No.54108822]

>>54107815
schizophrenic takes a creative writing class

[Anonymous No.54108838]

>>54104841
>>54104884
>>54107804
To every single incel pisscel chudcel nazi ITT she would never touch you. Pic releated is the real pic.

[Anonymous No.54108947]

>>54104536
>corporate bonds
lots of these have been downgraded and so banks have had to shift them off of their books. some may be a good buying opportunity (provided the companies don't go bust). but anyway, if banks brought long-dated government bonds to replace commercial ones then they're vulnerable to further rate-rises. on the other hand, if rates fall, then there's a window where some companies can use cheaper loans to buy back their own bonds for less than they got paid to issue them in the first place. whichever way it goes and wherever you look, insolvent banks and companies are being bailed-out, and (you), are not.

[Anonymous No.54108990]

Should we have anything to worry about?

I have far far less than $250,000 in my bank account, that's the amount insured to us by the FIDC.

[Anonymous No.54109010]

>>54106395
I can't fap to this

[Anonymous No.54109047]

>>54108838
Girls like that love nazis the most.

[Anonymous No.54109349]

>>54107815
krystle was the girl from the LSD silo you goof.

[Anonymous No.54109386]

>>54104592
out of 10

[Anonymous No.54110132]

>>54108990
If the government can't/won't cover you, the money in your account will be the least of your concerns.

[Anonymous No.54111206]

>>54107804
>>54108838
>>54104841
I would get gassed BY her. Why isn't there fart porn where a jew goddess forces a german to eat her farts until he passes out?

[Anonymous No.54113059]

>>54107815
this is correct

[Anonymous No.54113126]

>>54104841
>Crazy story.
do tell.....

[Anonymous No.54113562]

>>54109047
A Tale as Old as Time....

[Anonymous No.54114751]

>>54106395
>Oh look at me I'm just a homely average girl who likes to paint cats and stuff.

Meanwhile she was a sex slave for an lsd manufacturer in an underground facility.

Women lol. Fucking can't trust em. That girl you see reading and sowing at the library used to be a whore for a method dealer.

[Anonymous No.54115013]

>>54104536
>who is holding the worst bonds
Whoever is holding Microstrategy's corporate bonds.
>who's next
Probably whoever has the most exposure to silicon valley, 'tech' and the supporting Eco-system for instance digital marketing companies.
Tbqh I don't even know what I'm talking about at all
>>54108838
>a woman having strong political or moral convictions
ayyy lmao
>>54106594
You mean a gas mask covering her entire face?

[Anonymous No.54115020]

>>54113126
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Leonard_Pickard
https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/wamego-lsd-missile-silo
https://www.vice.com/en/article/znqv75/getting-high-on-krystle
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r7qliVpGEk0&vl=en

Those should get you going. I used to have hookups with very good contacts in the dead family. LSD at the high levels is basically a cia drug cult, most if not all is made by government scientists. To be trusted at all by these people you need to hold a thumprint (>500 hits) on your tongue for like an hour.

That chick was some stripper who started banging the Walter white of hallucinogens. Allegedly he kept her imprisoned as a sex slave by constructing a new reality for her by keeping her out of her mind. There’s claims he’d dose surfaces with novel hallucinogens and sell her ass to all his buddies. Then she snitched and got him all fucked up. There’s more too it but you should find it interesting digging if that’s your thing.

Also glad I held off on buying puts first thing. Truist and BAC seem to be pretty heavy on unrealized losses and those CS CDS spreads make it seem likely they might be totally doomed.

[Anonymous No.54115485]

>>54106570
And that's okay-ish because it just gets reconsolidated and sold into something else so the Fed doesn't have to worry.

[Anonymous No.54115564]

>>54104536
>Next Bank to Fail?

[Anonymous No.54115709]

>>54115020
>I hung out with grateful dead groupies
>therefore I am CIAman
no you're just fucking retarded

[Anonymous No.54116329]

>>54115020

>Dear Diary, today anon did me a solid!

[Anonymous No.54116512]

>>54115709
Lol read up on mk ultra bud. I'm just sharing the story I heard, but it is consistent with what's on the public record. Doesn't make me a glownigger.

Truist action looks still bearish to me. That Asian bear is on TV saying CS will fail. Today's rally on no news makes me think we are definitely not out of the woods on bank failures.

[Anonymous No.54116850]

>>54115013
>You mean a gas mask covering her entire face?
Exactly

[Anonymous No.54116894]

>>54108838
this one looks photoshopped to me desu

[Anonymous No.54116940]

>>54104841
>>54108838
>>54116850

Actually, the anti-nazi one the original. Look at her belly in the pro-nazi one. Someone made her just a little extra fat, along with adding the Swaztika LOL. 10/10, very good job to the internet hero who made this edit.

[Anonymous No.54116994]

>>54116940
Too bad she looked best with the swastika

[Anonymous No.54117052]

>>54108838
why do women delude themselves into thinking that they have a purpose beyond getting dicked and then all constantly act out for attention

[Anonymous No.54117104]

>>54104857
"If I go down I'm taking you with me!"
Sincerely,

- Jerome Powell

[Anonymous No.54117129]

>>54117052
>anon wonders why illogical creature acts illogical
it's all shit tests and a deep, pressing, anching urge between their legs to get fucked over.

[Anonymous No.54117322]

>>54115709
>>54115020
"the family" is very much real and is essentially ran from cali, colorado and texas. Lookup LSD manufacturing, Bastrop county texas

[Anonymous No.54117352]

>>54116940
Nah it looks like the opposite actually. They photoshoped her stomach thinner and crossed out the swastika. Some angry leftypol tranny probably