/smg/ - Stock Market General

[Anonymous No.53986639]

No idea edition

>Educational sites:
https://www.investopedia.com/
https://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJpo4YHyad0

>Financial TV Streams:
https://watchnewslive.tv/watch-cnbc-live-stream-free-24-7/
http://www.livenewson.com/american/bloomberg-television-business.html
https://watchnewslive.tv/watch-fox-business-network-fbn-free-24-7/

>Charts:
https://www.tradingview.com
https://www.finscreener.com
https://www.koyfin.com/
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com

>Screeners:
https://finviz.com/
https://www.tradingview.com/screener
https://etfdb.com/

>Options
https://www.optionsplaybook.com/options-introduction/
https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com
https://optionstrat.com/
https://www.optionistics.com/quotes/option-prices

>Pre-Market and Live data:
https://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futures
https://finance.yahoo.com/

>Calendars
https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar
https://www.earningswhispers.com/calendar
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

>Boomer Investing 101:
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Getting_started

>Misc:
https://tradingeconomics.com/
https://finance.yahoo.com/trending-tickers
https://market24hclock.com/
https://wallmine.com/
https://fintel.io/
https://www.dividendchannel.com/drip-returns-calculator
https://brokerchooser.com/
https://www.chathamfinancial.com/technology/us-market-rates

Previous >>53985223

[Anonymous No.53986699]

>>53986639
Good chart

[Anonymous No.53986701]

>>53986274
Why March 22nd?

[Anonymous No.53986718]

>>53986701
Presumably FOMC on 3/22.

[Anonymous No.53986723]

>>53986639
Bulls can tongue my fucking anus. This market is going down the fucking poop tube next month. Its over.

[Anonymous No.53986752]

>>53986744
The gov should subsidize all energy imo. Its not just profit but national security.

[Anonymous No.53986753]

>>53986718
Wasnt the fomc supposed to be on the 15th and 16th what changed

[Anonymous No.53986764]

>>53986639
We are headed beyond 86.
>Why do they say 86 that in restaurants when they are out of something?

[Anonymous No.53986768]

>>53986718
Skulls and bones numbers
Sheeeeeeit

[Anonymous No.53986779]

>>53986696
Shitposting or not but having no subsidies leads to higher prices is usually bullshit, companies say that to scare retards into getting more gibs and less competition

[Anonymous No.53986780]

>>53986753
Yeah actually. I think the 14th and 15th. Wonder why it changed.

[Anonymous No.53986782]

I'm going to short XLF.
I'm going to short IWM.
I'm going to short YOU.

[Anonymous No.53986783]

>>53986639
>crabbing for 20 years
Maybe I should buy bonds

[Anonymous No.53986789]

>>53986723
I just need it up until Friday. I can plan for next month.

[Anonymous No.53986797]

>>53986779
>getting more gibs and less competition
Yeah because US oil workers get paid more and the subsidies allow Us companies to compete with saudis and other national companies. Plus it can make exploration cheaper that if the company fails to find stuff it doesnt wreck them. I think its necessary.

[Anonymous No.53986798]

>>53986752
>MUH national security

Does the fucking government ever do a god damn thing for national security? The kiked government has been looting taxpayers sending billions to their jewish puppet in Ukraine while millions of illegal immigrants flood over the southern border many are drug runners or cartel members. They keep the borders open knowing china is shipping billions of dollars worth of fentanyl over and flying their fucking spy balloons over the mainland with impunity. The government could give two FUCKS about national security. These niggers are looting the country as they facilitate the collapse

[Anonymous No.53986802]

I tried to trade again after stopping for a month and its already going bad. Thats what I get for jumping back in. Powell said nothing but bad news for the market and it still pumped.

[Anonymous No.53986812]

>>53986780
I can only think of the fed want to wait for ppi, pce and inflation data and the reactions before taking a decision. Could be a good sign actually, less weird volatility having two major events in a two days

[Anonymous No.53986824]

>>53986798
Having an ample supply of energy production domestically is a beneficial thing. Dont go down the doomer demoralized route over recent politics.
>>53986812
That makes sense. Still likely to be 50 bips imo.

[Anonymous No.53986835]

>>53986768
Perhaps the day that BOIL moons

[Anonymous No.53986838]

>>53986540
The world as it will be on March 22nd. you'll see. Literally 2 more weeks.
>>53986701
Yes, the FOMC. The one where the market didn't expect a 50bps rate hike until literally yesterday.
There will be fireworks. Smgbobros gonna have a sleepover.

[Anonymous No.53986849]

Official thread playlist

[Anonymous No.53986855]

>>53986824
will see. forecasts are okay, but they havent been right lately and I wouldnt be amazed if on the day of the reading there is going to be a gain a local top just top find new lows in inflation

[Anonymous No.53986857]

>>53986838
Would you mind explaining anything you just said? I genuinely don’t know if this is predicting a crash or an increase

[Anonymous No.53986866]

Isn't this rising interest rate making our reserve currency really enticing for other nations?

[Anonymous No.53986870]

>>53986699
Thank you

[Anonymous No.53986872]

>>53986824
>53986824
You are worrying about energy policy while China is colonizing half the world and the border is being flooded by uneducated hostile foreign nationals who don't even speak english. kek

[Anonymous No.53986885]

>They think they're happy, but they don't know that SOXL's daily trading volume is an impressive $1.5 billion.

[Anonymous No.53986887]

Natural GAS

FUD

BOIL
NGS

FUCK

[Anonymous No.53986895]

>>53986855
>but they havent been right lately and
Didnt that meme fed whisper Nick Tspiaras or whatever his name is say 50 bips? The fed isnt in quite period anyway so im not sure hes relevant right now.
>>53986866
Sort of. They will want to buy our bonds or move to USD but at the same time it depreciates their currency making it harder for them to use their own currency. So they either have to sell USD or USD bonds to boost their own currencys purchasing power. Japan is a good example of this right now. Theyre having issue with their currency.
>>53986872
Would you prefer I worry about china and hispanics in the cold and dark instead? Dont self sabotage your country because you are upset others are trashing it too.

[Anonymous No.53986898]

Constellation Software.

[Anonymous No.53986904]

>>53986857
You're new as fuck and should lurk for another year. This is financial advice.

[Anonymous No.53986916]

>>53986849
The first song on this playlist isn’t even on YouTube it doesn’t exist

[Anonymous No.53986917]

>>53986895
>japan spends 30 years trying to cause inflation thinking it'll magically fix their economy
>finally gets it
>instantly panics and raises rates
I'm going to laugh my ass off if higher rates and actual returns for their bonds turns their economy on

[Anonymous No.53986931]

>>53986904
>There will be fireworks. Smgbobros gonna have a sleepover.
Or you could just say this in English instead of being an arrogant faggot about it

[Anonymous No.53986939]

>>53986797
>the subsidies allow Us companies to compete with saudis and other national companies
That's true but that implies the competition would sell goods more efficiently ie for less money. For natl security I can see the argument but a purely economic stand point it's not necessary at all.

[Anonymous No.53986941]

>DXY daily candle at key resistance point
>yields double topping
>JPow FUD barely dumping the markets
>SPY and Futures make HL and show bullish divergence on that low.
Employment and CPI will be better than expected and 50bps literally just got priced in. its literally over bobo. you lost.

[Anonymous No.53986942]

>>53986798

[Anonymous No.53986948]

>>53986857
A crash isnt going to happen. We have too much liquidity right now for that. Rates were going up but everyone thought only 25 but now its pretty much going to be 50. Market is a bit surprised because all last year fed said theyre done about now, 4.7%. Turns out its going to go closer to 6% now.
>>53986917
did the japanese actually start to raise rates? Last i saw they were still flat and buying bonds to fight US raising rates.
>>53986939
yeah agreed.

[Anonymous No.53986952]

>>53986931
I gave you good advice there, anon. I'm not being arrogant, there is such a thing as board culture and even thread culture and it would take far too long to teach you, the only way you pick it up is by observing for at least a few months. If you haven't got the patience for that, the market won't be kind to you.

[Anonymous No.53986963]

The indexes move like god damn penny stocks now. But they always end up moving to the upside. This shit is so gay now.

[Anonymous No.53986980]

>>53986941
>50bps literally just got priced in
>it barely did anything
fugg, m-my thesis...

[Anonymous No.53986984]

>>53986941
I agree with most of this except 50 bepis being priced in. NEVER underestimate the markets retarded ability to price something in, then price it out, then price it back in with more force

[Anonymous No.53986991]

i miss him so much, bros

[Anonymous No.53986996]

It's really pretty incredible the US survived the great depression. If it didn't suck so much elsewhere we probably would've been screwed.

[Anonymous No.53987003]

Buddy look at Fedwatch computer.
Not only have just got a new expectation for 50bps next meeting, but every fucking FOMC is adding another fucking 25bps. That was NOT being predicted just yesterday.
The market is going to lose the fight. This time *is* different, just not how Wall St was expecting.

[Anonymous No.53987006]

>>53986952
I’m not using your post to invest all of my money, I’m just asking you what it means and you’re acting like some kid who doesn’t get to be a bully irl but wants to so he does it on 4chan.
I’m assuming a sleepover means a party but like you said, I don’t know obscure references so can’t tell.

[Anonymous No.53987008]

>>53986991
its fucking still not real to me :(

[Anonymous No.53987011]

>>53986895
I don't know that name, but 50 has been thrown around now since mid February by those that wish for a dip. Will see, my guess is either 25 now and 25 in May or 50 now and 0 in may. I think the January bump was just a bump

[Anonymous No.53987017]

>>53986980
>he thinks there's only one round of 50bps
Your thesis deserves to be blown to pieces, you clownworld priestess, now deesis this post while I eat some reese's.

[Anonymous No.53987028]

>>53987003
every FOMC after that*
>>53987006
Oh fuck c'mon. Yes a sleepover means a party. And it's obviously a party for bobos aka bears. So we're expecting a crash because of the rate hikes shocks that are going to start hitting.

[Anonymous No.53987041]

>>53987011
50 is at 80% now in fed futures. Jp morgan saying 6% prepping people mentally for it. Id say next one is 50 then maybe another 50 next then 25s until closer to 6%. But they can start slow walking that as they get closer to get people prepared for higher. Just anticipate 5-6% minimum for 1-2 years. Thats the likely play imo.

[Anonymous No.53987046]

the other day my wife fell down the stairs at our building and our neighbors all rushed out and gave me vibes like they thought i pushed her. like asking her questions ignoring me who was helping her. why can't people just mind their own fucking business

[Anonymous No.53987047]

In fact, if you want to give this next FOMC a special name, it's the rate shock FOMC.

[Anonymous No.53987048]

Unironically believe the Powell is doing stealth QE. Just look at how one sided the market is towards the bull side. Every drop gets saved. How can you claim to be fighting inflation when you're printing a shit ton of money to keep the market afloat?

[Anonymous No.53987053]

what if it really is the dip before the rip?

[Anonymous No.53987054]

>>53987028
Thank you
This all aligns nicely with picrel

[Anonymous No.53987057]

>>53986991
Be patient, brothers, for we will meet him soon in Valhalla.

[Anonymous No.53987058]

>>53987017
rest in reese's pieces this thesis

[Anonymous No.53987059]

>>53987003
If Powell does 25 beepis again he's a bitch

[Anonymous No.53987060]

>>53987003
Look, it's simple: no one will pour money into bonds as long as they think they'll get a higher rate next meeting. So as long as the Fed keeps hiking every meeting, the stock market will never collapse.

[Anonymous No.53987069]

>>53986916
Welcome new fren. You’re here forever

[Anonymous No.53987070]

>>53987058
Those niggas and butterfinger BBs were my jam back in the day.

[Anonymous No.53987076]

>>53987048
That's actually the Jew Yellen at Treasury spending down every last shekel in advance of the debt ceiling.

[Anonymous No.53987079]

>>53987041
Fed futures is a gamblers indicator hardly to be taken serious as it could just change next week on a whimp. What a company with its own interest writes in its ads is something I cant take serious either.
>6%
>50/50/25
Doubtful that interest rates are going above yoy inflation rates

[Anonymous No.53987085]

>>53987053
None of the FED shit matters to me. None of the predictions matter to me, None of the interest rates, not the jobs, not a bit. What matters to me is that I can't for the life of me pick a winning anything for the last month.
I'm 1 step forward 2 steps back every fucking day.
I'm gonna golf until I hear you guys are either rolling blunts with hundreds, or throwing yourselves out of windows.

[Anonymous No.53987087]

>>53987059
No no no, he's just "data dependent". Not a bitch. Not at all.

Please call him the second coming of Volcker :(

[Anonymous No.53987095]

>I need to hold an etf for 60 days to get a dividend
how does this work for dca bros? Will I only get dividends on the shares I've owned for 60 days?

[Anonymous No.53987099]

>>53987079
>Fed futures is a gamblers indicator hardly to be taken serious as it could just change next week on a whimp.
2 months out? Sure. 2 weeks out? Nah, the Fed literally never surprises that late in the game. Especially during their African Americanout window.

[Anonymous No.53987108]

>>53987060
>o one will pour money into bonds as long as they think they'll get a higher rate next meeting
Correct.
>the stock market will never crash
I get what you are saying but i think if bonds are at 8-10% people will start to fomo in anyway. But yeah no one is going to buy bonds if you know you can wait a month and get a better one.
>>53987079
>Fed futures is a gamblers indicator hardly to be taken serious as it could just change next week on a whimp
Somewhat yes. They have been pretty good at predicting what will happen. If the market predicts 50 bps dont be surprised if we get a 50 bps and nothing dramatic happens on fomc day. The fed futures is a way for the market to price in rates.

[Anonymous No.53987110]

>>53987095
you get dividends as long as you hold the shares before the ex-div day. have to hold for 60 days for the dividends to be qualified (ie not taxed as regular income)

[Anonymous No.53987113]

>>53987054
Hmm. This gets posted all the time, did anyone backtest it? I know even that question got asked previously but I didn't pay attention.
But yeah if we have these weird schizoid theories on our side, it can't hurt. I don't tend to put much faith in them though.

Anons here may remember but I predicted all this months ago.
Remember that previous House committee where Powell looked like a whipped ass when they called him out about not knowing about inflation until it was too late?

I predicted back then his pride was too hurt to allow a pivooooot any time until after a recession.

So yes, all smart anons here have been ultra bobo since then and even though there will be bear market rallies, we'll win the long game.

[Anonymous No.53987116]

>>53987095
chase yields in bonds before equities

[Anonymous No.53987117]

>>53987095
The ex-dividend date is how long you need to hold something to get a payout. 60 days is just what you need for those dividends to get "qualified dividend" tax status. See https://www.investopedia.com/terms/q/qualifieddividend.asp

[Anonymous No.53987123]

>>53987099
If cpi pci and pce reflect next week what coreflation hs been showing this week, it would hardly warrant to go 50 as it would confirm that the january bump was just a bump due to good weather

[Anonymous No.53987125]

>>53987095
what? you just gotta buy it before ex-dividend date. doesnt even have to be settled either

[Anonymous No.53987127]

>>53987095
qualified vs ordinary divies.

[Anonymous No.53987133]

>>53987085
don't forget to stay hydrated

[Anonymous No.53987142]

>>53987060
The Fed hiking every meeting will cause a collapse because of things like the real economy being unable to keep up with 20% mortgages.
You need to stop making niggerish comments.
>>53987059
He won't. It's 50bps. See Fedwatch. It's highly unlikely Fedwatch is wrong.

[Anonymous No.53987147]

threadly reminder that the divvy is your ally... and a powerful ally it is

[Anonymous No.53987162]

What did Powell say or not say today that made everything moon? I feel like the bear narrative is utterly fucked at this point if the Fed chair can get in front of a bunch of retarded Republicans and the market doesn't shit itself

>>53987069
Why is it that you always see "hot" girls hanging out with dudes like that? Fucking limp-wristed, shaved-faced, problem-glasses-wearing New-Yorker-tote-having faggots.

[Anonymous No.53987166]

>>53987127
>>53987125
>>53987110
thanks anons, I didn't realize it was specifying qualified
I hold vnq in my roth so looking forward to the payout since its 3.5%

[Anonymous No.53987176]

>>53987123
If Truflation was accurate, it wouldn't have been caught off guard by the good weather. You may as well point to the Cleveland Fed's nowcast and say they're going to show CPI and PCE values that require 50.

[Anonymous No.53987178]

>>53986639
Tmf is going up to 9.50 maybe 9.70. You've been advised

[Anonymous No.53987180]

>>53987113
How long do you expect the rate hikes to last? Someone yesterday said “maybe decades” but that has to be extreme, right?

[Anonymous No.53987181]

>>53987162
He was just responding to pic related

[Anonymous No.53987183]

Fuck dividends. Dividends are evil and a waste of money that should be used to grow the company. No company should ever issue dividends ever. If I hear that any of my stocks are issuing dividends I'm selling immediately.

[Anonymous No.53987193]

>>53987166
Dont even sweat keeping track of it. Your broker will notify you at end of year with a 1099 breaking it down into each.

[Anonymous No.53987195]

>>53987162
He said that he's resuming QE and will market buy $10b/week worth of corporate bonds for semiconductor companies whose names start with "N".

[Anonymous No.53987204]

>>53987183
Much fear I sense in you.

[Anonymous No.53987206]

>>53987183
Do you just love voting? Oh, you're that one born to believe that there's one greater than you?

[Anonymous No.53987212]

>>53987183
Dividends are your enemy. A tool of the IRS.

>"I hate, hate, hate buybacks."
-Senator Charles "Murder All Goyim" Schumer

[Anonymous No.53987213]

>>53987162
Because they’re on the pill so they’re looking for non-threatening men
This is the unironic answer

[Anonymous No.53987219]

>>53987204
Afraid? Good.

[Anonymous No.53987221]

>>53987180
>maybe decades” but that has to be extreme, right?
Kek theyre a retard. They banks and fed are subtly telling you 6% in on the table. We are at 4.7% right now. So look for 6%ish. Minimum is 5% now. As we get closer to 6% the fed and others will slowly start to say inflation is sticky, blah blah and thats them gently telling you theyre going higher. Expect 5-6% by eoy right now. Then if that is the end, theyll hold it for 2 years or so.

[Anonymous No.53987223]

>>53987183
I agree but sometimes it's the only way to get management to return something rather than wasting it in low return investments that reduce value per share. If management cannot increase ROIC they should give out the extra money

[Anonymous No.53987231]

>>53987221
If they hold rates at 6% "for 2 years or so", we will have a credit crisis and the market will close.

[Anonymous No.53987234]

>>53987219
My own counsel will I keep on what is 'good'. For 800 years, have I reinvested divvies.

[Anonymous No.53987235]

>>53987231
Good.

[Anonymous No.53987239]

>>53987231
>we will have a credit crisis and the market will close.
Doubt it. We have a ton of liquidity right now. Why do you think that?

[Anonymous No.53987241]

>>53987046
you look like the kind of guy that pushes women down stair. fucking asshole.

[Anonymous No.53987252]

>>53987221
Jerome didn't say 6%, he was pissed, and was sighing. I heard he's gonna crack rates till everyone is sweeping floors, cleaning windows, and sleeping in the broom closet of the bank HQ.

[Anonymous No.53987255]

>>53987176
truflations trend didn't decline as fast in January as it did during the rest of the cycle and the nowcast also doesn't look that bad beside pce. We see next week, and either way, 50 or 25, there wont be the impact that bears wish for

[Anonymous No.53987259]

>>53987239
"Strong balance sheets" and "termed out debt" is like holding your breath underwater. If you're hyperventilating, yeah, you'll have to surface in 5 seconds. Take deep breaths, train your cardio, you can handle 5 minutes. But not even David Blaine's magical ass can handle 50 minutes.

[Anonymous No.53987264]

DIE SILVERGATE DIE
AAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

[Anonymous No.53987270]

>>53987252
Hes not going to ever say a number. The 6% was from Jaime dimon. But the fed wants higher for longer. The terminal rate was supposed to be 4.5ish. Where we are roughly. Now the fed is saying we arent done and several reports came in hot on inflation to support that. So hes going over 5% for sure.
>>53987259
Yeah but I dont see that being an issue at 6% still.

[Anonymous No.53987276]

>>53986887
uh oh stinky

[Anonymous No.53987277]

Praise dividends. Dividends are salvation and worthy money that goes into the pocket of their investors and that should be used to grow their portfolio. All companies should issue dividends. If I hear any stock is issuing dividends I'm buyying immediately.

[Anonymous No.53987278]

>>53987241
say that to face bitch. i'll meet you on the landing

[Anonymous No.53987284]

>>53987264
Non-news. After ftx liquidity migrated on chain using dapps on dozens of permissionless blockchains, silvergate would have been news 8 months ago, now its nothing

[Anonymous No.53987289]

>>53987241
He needs to be the kind of guy who gets up in their faces with a stiff forearm and,
>Give My Wife Room!
He was too pussy about his leadership with her when she was hurt, he wasn't getting rid of the hyenas. Needs to be firm, loud enough to be understood, and in between her and the peanuts.

[Anonymous No.53987295]

>>53987180
Hah decades is super fucking retarded, I can say that much with certainty.
Shorter term, idk that's the exact thing we spend entire threads here debating.

There's a difference between rate hikes and a pause in rate hikes and also a pivot (reversal of rate hikes, I. E. Rate cuts).
If you mean how long do rate hikes continue happening from here, just look at the predictions on Fedwatch, Fed futures are already predicting rate hikes continuing (even if that's just 25bps per meeting) for the next few meetings.
If you mean a pause, then that won't happen until a) next year sometime b) a recession hits.
If you mean a pivot, then this is the expected next thing to happen after a recession hits.

tldr, they continue until late 2024 or a recession, whichever comes first.
Some of us expect a brutal recession later this year (2nd half) or early next year, there's a medium probability of that.

[Anonymous No.53987304]

>>53987270
I heard
>fuck you, we're gonna crank this bitch to 11, you dumb niggers
but that's me.
Look the whole goal is to give the US to the FED member bank owners, they gonna do what they can any time you let them. Expect these rates to climb till you're dumpster diving the JPM office for leftover lunches between shifts of polishing leather chairs with your tongue.

[Anonymous No.53987307]

>>53987270
>Yeah but I dont see that being an issue at 6% still.
That means literally any new investment has to clear a 6% risk free rate hurdle. That genocides spreadsheets on a scale hitherto undreamt of.

[Anonymous No.53987311]

>>53987284
The market seems to think it is news

But explain what you’re saying. Crypto banks aren’t necessary anymore, so it’s not news to crypto? Sure seems like it is news to the stock

[Anonymous No.53987322]

>>53987239
>We have a ton of liquidity right now
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xgtv8PWdeIQ

[Anonymous No.53987326]

>>53987295
>no pause until next year
Unlikely. Unless numbers are going to become so bad we see an uptrend on truflation May is going to be the last hike until Autumn

[Anonymous No.53987328]

>>53987183
I don't trust anyone to have more than one good business idea and not spend money on frivolities. I can spend that money better than google office buffets or metaverse.

[Anonymous No.53987335]

>>53987307
>That genocides spreadsheets on a scale hitherto undreamt of.
I think you still get venture capital in tech. Theyre aiming for 10% per year on venture investments.
>>53987322
>We have a ton of liquidity right now
Yeah, thats why we have inflation. Too much money.

[Anonymous No.53987338]

>>53987311
yes, for crypto its non news. My stable coin farms keep printing at 30% average and the shitcoin gambles have been paying off retardely well since the start of the year. Crypto is performing better than any stocks, etfs or let alone bonds

[Anonymous No.53987344]

How do you know what is a tangible read on market behavior and what is utter delusion and confirmation bias?

[Anonymous No.53987352]

>>53987264
Based
>>53987239
>We have a ton of liquidity right now.
Just not true. Plus the Fed is reducing the balance sheet every month, liquidity is forcibly contracting at a faster rate than ever.
This plays into the recession 2023 thesis.
I can't remember if it was Steve Eisman or Michael Every or some other analyst who said the recession was on a 18-24 month lag from the first yield inversion which happened around March 2022.

IOW that window of a recession actually happening opens in October 2023 and stays open up to March 2024.

[Anonymous No.53987353]

Whois slurping DDOG tomorrow after the inevitable outage dump

[Anonymous No.53987354]

if it has an anime girl next to it

[Anonymous No.53987357]

I don't understand. I thought Adidas was originally aligned with noted anti-semites.

[Anonymous No.53987362]

>>53987335
>I think you still get venture capital in tech. Theyre aiming for 10% per year on venture investments.
Remember how QE pushed money out the risk curve? A 6% short term (and, if we keep it up, mid/long term) rate reverses that. VC dollars will get scarcer and scarcer. See also: startups right now getting the tap on the shoulder to produce revenue

[Anonymous No.53987364]

>>53987357
Germany has been ruled by kikes since WW2. Adidas were only Nazi until WW2 ended.

[Anonymous No.53987366]

>>53987335
>Yeah, thats why we have inflation. Too much money.
We have inflation cause too much money IS BEING SPENT
Having too much money != Spending too much money

[Anonymous No.53987370]

>>53987344

[Anonymous No.53987377]

I don't trust JEPI so I turned off divvy reinvestments.

[Anonymous No.53987381]

0DTE calls bought in the last hour of trading win again!

[Anonymous No.53987385]

>>53987344
>a tangible read on market behavior
When you see a gradual shift in consensus.
>>53987352
>a 18-24 month lag from the first yield inversion which happened around March 2022.
I think that sounds right. But I dont think companies are in a bad spot and we have a tight labor market still.

[Anonymous No.53987393]

So wait I'm just supposed to lose X amount of money one day and then gain that same X amount back the next day, and then just repeat that forever?

[Anonymous No.53987400]

>>53987362
>startups right now getting the tap on the shoulder to produce revenue
Actual startups still private or startups that have been public for years but pretending theyre still a startup like ubers and doordashes of the world? The latter I agree with are being forced to generate revenue.

[Anonymous No.53987409]

>>53987393
thanks for being liquidity buy and hold chud

[Anonymous No.53987424]

>>53987409
You're welcome
My parents raised me right, I guess, they walwyas wante dam me to be a aliquidtiiy

[Anonymous No.53987430]

>>53987424
what did he mean by this?

[Anonymous No.53987434]

>>53987400
Both because the pressures are the same. Private can extend and pretend or do Blackstone type gimmicks but redemptions are redemptions and being far out on the risk curve is being far out on the risk curve.

[Anonymous No.53987441]

This chart is silly. Some of these dips are very exaggerated, the actual dip for the GFC was relatively short but because it didn't reach ATH beforehand it's marked as a "long" recession. Less than half of the marked timeframe was an actual dip.

[Anonymous No.53987444]

>>53987430
https://metalgear.fandom.com/wiki/Liquid_Snake

[Anonymous No.53987446]

Credit Suisse is now firmly trading below $3.

[Anonymous No.53987449]

>>53987434
We will see what happens. I see tech and stocks still generating interest for most but I agree a lot of bigger funds will pull risk on money off for safe and stable bonds.

[Anonymous No.53987453]

>futures computer

[Anonymous No.53987457]

>>53987385
>But I dont think companies are in a bad spot and we have a tight labor market still.
Companies aren't in a bad spot? Dude SI and BBBY and probably other shitshows like CVNA eating a bullet all at the same time isn't a cohencidence.
It's because liquidity is drying up fast.

This is the fucking *intentional* effect of rate hikes. Even midwit ""financial analysts"" on YouTube know this much.
More bankruptcies incoming. I hope anons are getting ready to short all this garbage.
I hope to join my fellow bobros in seeing NVDA go back to reality ($75).

[Anonymous No.53987468]

>>53987424
Hello liquidity

[Anonymous No.53987479]

>>53987457
>Dude SI and BBBY and probably other shitshows like CVNA eating a bullet all at the same time isn't a cohencidence.
>It's because liquidity is drying up fast.
These werent real companies dude. Its not a matter of liquidity BBBY is a dead company. No one is going to throw money at a loss like that. These companies going bankrupt isnt going to undermine the economy much. Theyre already husks of companies.

[Anonymous No.53987482]

>>53987457
liquidity hasn't dried upt hat bad, still more than enough in the market, but its scared liquidity that doesn't flow to every joker with a garage telling investors he is the next Steve Jobs

[Anonymous No.53987483]

>>53987409
either I'm retarded or you are.
buy and hold isn't liquidity.

[Anonymous No.53987485]

>>53987446
Unironically a great buy even if it dips further.
Banking cartel will never let it crash, they'll keep it pumped for fucking ever. Only fucktarded -93IQ fintwit niggers think they're funny by shorting a G-SIB.

[Anonymous No.53987489]

>futures

[Anonymous No.53987491]

>>53987457
you literally have brain damage man

[Anonymous No.53987493]

>>53987400
have they ever generated revenue ever tho?

[Anonymous No.53987496]

>>53987366
Having too much money = Spending too much money

Money velocity is an irrelevant statistic. The existance of too much money makes everyone hike prices, forcing the spending to increase proportionally.

Money supply + Greed = Money velocity

[Anonymous No.53987497]

>>53987446
Will it hold? The other times it dipped under 3 it went back up the next day. If it closes the week under 3 I'll liquidate all my positions.

[Anonymous No.53987508]

>>53987483
depends on what you're holding and who's your broker

so unless you got physical stock certificates for the most part retail is always liquidity

[Anonymous No.53987526]

>>53987493
Uber sort of got something. They were cash flow positive for like 1 quarter last year or something. But for that example they just announced theyre selling part of their company. So I expect them to all do that soon. jettison the trash.

[Anonymous No.53987527]

>"two more weeks" the increasingly poor and anxious bear said

[Anonymous No.53987529]

I ate too much pizza for lunch and now my tummy feels bloated. Stocks for this feel?

[Anonymous No.53987541]

>>53987400
The company I work for is private and we're definitely getting squeezed. CFO has said we MUST be profitable by EOY. CEO got replaced a few weeks ago. Our investors are clearly not happy we dunked a ton of overvalued shares on them (now down 60%) a year ago. I'm expecting bad times once my project is over with.

[Anonymous No.53987545]

if today is international Womens day, then when is international Mens day?

[Anonymous No.53987549]

>>53987529
coca cola ltd

[Anonymous No.53987554]

>>53987527
2 more weeks from now is the rate shock FOMC. Your post will age poorly mumu. Screencapping and will post again on March 22nd. Make sure you show up.

[Anonymous No.53987556]

>>53987527
We dumped 2 weeks after the last FOMC albeit

[Anonymous No.53987571]

>>53987556
you call that a dump? something that doesn't even drive below local lower lows can hardly be called a dump

[Anonymous No.53987600]

>>53987527
>Big Payroll Friday
just need two more days mumu

[Anonymous No.53987609]

>>53987554
I will look for you, and when we close green I will know that you have been heemed

[Anonymous No.53987612]

You do know the bottom was in october right? Hope you bought in!

[Anonymous No.53987615]

Hey fuckers, is SPY hitting 420 this month?

[Anonymous No.53987626]

>>53987609
It's nice to have dreams, mumu.

[Anonymous No.53987631]

>>53987615
no

[Anonymous No.53987635]

>>53987545
every day is mens day king

[Anonymous No.53987641]

>>53987600
>“Inventory at year-end totaled $246.4 million, an increase of 48% compared to a year ago,
uh oh soijacks ran out of money to buy trash with.

[Anonymous No.53987642]

>>53987600
>picrel
The world finally agrees with me, 15 years later. I'm always so early always. Should I sell CRSP?

[Anonymous No.53987652]

>>53987615
yes

[Anonymous No.53987656]

>>53987615
maybe, but the 3800-3999 range is more likely.

[Anonymous No.53987662]

Bros I met this really cute blonde who was out rollberblading. We hit it off and had a great date. Even got a little physical after. And then I woke up from this beautiful dream 15 minutes ago. I'll be drinking tonight. Short reality.

[Anonymous No.53987664]

>>53987642
being early when being a bobo is deadly. being early when being a mumu is fine. I was in AAPL just be as Steve Jobs was (i)CEO late 90s.

[Anonymous No.53987667]

>>53987631
3225 in 9 months is believable, but 4200 in 1 month is more believable. How many red days did we have this dip?

[Anonymous No.53987683]

>>53987635
right. now back to work, you wouldn't want the draft board seeing you having fun.

[Anonymous No.53987692]

Convergent evolution implies that bulls and bears will become crabs if allowed a few million years to evolve.
What if it's all just crab markets when you zoom out far enough? A million years ago the S&P500 was practically $0.

[Anonymous No.53987693]

Check KOF. Imagine investing in KO when KOF exists lol

[Anonymous No.53987706]

>>53987615
I'm hitting 420 this month if you know what I mean.

[Anonymous No.53987707]

>>53987683
yet its work that women are begging to do, like the men do.

[Anonymous No.53987719]

>>53987707
why? what part of being a sexual species would make one think that a female is genetically best suited for hard political risk, long stressful hours, and separation from offspring?

[Anonymous No.53987722]

>>53987667
>3225
when bears can hardly get it to 3980. please thats 5000 by eoy 2021 delusion

[Anonymous No.53987731]

MAAAAA! THEY'RE TALKING ABOUT THE INEVITABILITY OF WORLD WAR III AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Anonymous No.53987734]

>>53987556
Bobo has to crash the market, not this "we go lower then sideways then up" forever shit. I was promised a crash by all the 4 figure portfolio doomers

I guess I'll have to wait two weeks

[Anonymous No.53987756]

>>53987526
finally some good news

[Anonymous No.53987757]

>>53987527
We gaan.

[Anonymous No.53987758]

>>53987722
We in a lost decade right now, we are not going anywhere past 420, not even 450, in the next couple of years

[Anonymous No.53987763]

Starfield looks like crap. Puts on MSFT. Calls once TES Sex gameplay gets released.

[Anonymous No.53987764]

>Silvergate
Lol and, quite possibley, lmao

[Anonymous No.53987781]

>>53987231
imagine getting 6% risk free on US treasuries for 2 years. id take that.

[Anonymous No.53987786]

Please remember the 6%

[Anonymous No.53987788]

>>53987764
how do we get a gategate? bill gates gets a blowey from bezos or something?

[Anonymous No.53987806]

>>53987731
>zero sum
someone get this faggot a telescope.

[Anonymous No.53987830]

oy vey look at mortgage rate computer!

[Anonymous No.53987831]

>>53987693
KO has way better dividend. That's it.

[Anonymous No.53987834]

>>53987781
Isnt that 6% per year?

[Anonymous No.53987837]

>>53987763
>Bethesda spends millions and countless hours and makes a mid theme park of a game with no polish
Been like this since FO3
Zero hopenfor TES 6 to be anything but Skyrim 2: Hammerfell

[Anonymous No.53987839]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8AHCfZTRGiI

[Anonymous No.53987844]

>>53987781
The real winner the past two years was to invest in SPY and then oil. I remember Scoopsies and chads posting their SPY gains and here I was trying to buy growth tech

[Anonymous No.53987846]

>>53987834
yes

[Anonymous No.53987853]

>>53987615
Yes, SPY will hit a market cap of $420.

[Anonymous No.53987856]

>>53987844
yes I got XOM at 45 and FLNG at 10
thinking about going 60/40 equities and short term treasuries

[Anonymous No.53987861]

>>53987839
Denied
https://youtu.be/Ty-bLdf8Bsw

[Anonymous No.53987870]

Sell.

*deletes account*

[Anonymous No.53987884]

>>53987870
>Carmelo?
>Yes, sir.
>Bring me Eric Dale's shitpost folder by 6:00am.
>It's done.

[Anonymous No.53987889]

Market sell everything wage demand inflation spiral soon
March 8 (Reuters) - A federal judge in Florida on Wednesday agreed with the state's Republican attorney general that the policy of President Joe Biden's administration to release many people who illegally cross the U.S.-Mexican border rather than detaining them violates U.S. immigration law

[Anonymous No.53987895]

>>53987831
Not much longer. Diversity push will destroy KO just like any other USA based corporation. KOF is already 100% diverse (Mexican) and can only get better from this point.

[Anonymous No.53987902]

>>53987781
6%, if it filtered through into all our debt, would force us to pay over 1.9 trillion a year in interest alone.

So, you see, at that point it is no longer "risk free".

[Anonymous No.53987926]

>>53987884
Funny how Carmelo seemed like a mafia fixer guy who never makes a mistake and he still couldn't find Eric Dale.

[Anonymous No.53987930]

What happens to niggers in a recession? Their checks just keep coming in the mail or what?

[Anonymous No.53987935]

>>53987861
Well, I just think there's enough to go around.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fhhEHuChFck

[Anonymous No.53987948]

>>53987902
that rate isn't the issued debt on the balance sheet right?
>In fiscal 2021, the average interest rate on federal debt was a record-low 1.605%. But with the Fed raising its policy rate to try to cool off the economy, the U.S. has started paying more to borrow: The average interest rate on federal debt last year ticked up to 2.07%.
>https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2023/02/14/facts-about-the-us-national-debt/#:~:text=In%20fiscal%202021%2C%20the%20average,year%20ticked%20up%20to%202.07%25.

[Anonymous No.53987967]

>>53987930
>What happens to niggers in a recession?
Very good question.
They starve. The entire time the Fed has been trying to minimize the economic pain caused to these apes. Everything has been about "da poor minorities" and the hope for the Fed always was to have the shortest recession possible and then go back to money printing.
Except that's just not going to happen this time for reasons we've discussed here. The recession is going to be brutal on them.

[Anonymous No.53987971]

>>53987758
Go preach on the street doom cultist. Powell said it best
Where there is yield, there are buyers. Smartest statement of the day

[Anonymous No.53987983]

>>53987948
The shorter end of the treasury curve pays out well. Higher for longer = more transmission to the belly of the curve.

Yellen gets to pay me back.

[Anonymous No.53987989]

>>53987830
>anon posts yet another random picture with line going one direction... then it goes other direction!
>anon writes: "OH NO!"

every fucking day. every fucking goddamn day with this shit.

[Anonymous No.53987995]

Guys I just came inside my gf and now I feel like nothing else matters. I like kissing her afterwards but it completely drains my motivation to do anything.

[Anonymous No.53988003]

>>53987902
>Nearly 2.5 trillion annually is just gibs
>Nearly 1 trillion annually is our (((defence sector)))
>Tfw our deficit has amounted to keeping nogs in poverty, giving boomer pensions they don't even need and bombing arabs

[Anonymous No.53988005]

>>53987971
this looks like some AI-generated shit. im looking at the hands and it's not fucking helping.

[Anonymous No.53988007]

>>53987995
ngmi

[Anonymous No.53988028]

>>53987983
AAA Muni bonds are also paying 4-5% and that is tax free (no federal no state)
>>53987989
eat my 3% mortgage renty

[Anonymous No.53988038]

I have 7k in the bank
Should I put 1k in stocks and see where it takes me (I'm ignorant and new to this) or should I just keep on moving

[Anonymous No.53988041]

How does /biz/ feel about bagholding short term bonds and intermediate term bonds?

[Anonymous No.53988045]

>>53988003
Actually nvm I didn't see the medicare and veteran benefits after defense
Almost 4 trillion in gibs annually or 1/5 our GDP
We're so cucked, shouldn't be that high

[Anonymous No.53988071]

>>53988038
1-3 month certificate of deposits are 5%.

[Anonymous No.53988078]

>>53987902
>.9 trillion a year in interest alone.
Taxes are going to have to go up. No other way about it really.

[Anonymous No.53988090]

>>53986639
Juneteenth is coming up its best to buy urban one stock now
the price skyrockets every June cause it's blk owned and markets itself as such

[Anonymous No.53988091]

>>53988045
>Almost 4 trillion in gibs
Think of it as stimulus. They all go and spend that money immediately.

[Anonymous No.53988095]

>>53988078
Empty DC, move all government functions that are not directly tied to external matters, or matters between the States to the States themselves, or just stop them.
We have plenty of money to cover what the US Constitution orders DC to do.

We do not have money to play social net and price control.

[Anonymous No.53988103]

>>53988045
>had panic disorder irl (took me a couple of years but i overcame it, but it was hell)
>see chuck for the first time
>never seen a guy with a serious anxiety disorder portrayed so well before, in such a GOAT show to boot
>in season 1 I'm really rooting for him and hope things turn out well for him

>then i got to the end of season 1

welp. honestly wonderful though tbhwy. that show was brilliant in making me love and root for the bad guy and hate and loathe the good guy.

[Anonymous No.53988111]

>>53988095
>that are not directly tied to external matters,
Like? EPA for instance, what would you do with it.
>play social
We do really. That corporate tax spot can go up and so can that payroll tax a bit. Everyone just got tons of free money from covid. Time for everyone to pay it back.

[Anonymous No.53988126]

>>53988028
is there a good selection of them at that rate for 3-6month duration? Probably have to have a set of brokers to get a complete range of USA city+counties.

[Anonymous No.53988136]

>>53987948
That's correct, we don't roll over the entire national debt every single day.

However Treasury has been incredibly retarded and never termed out the debt. Average maturity is something ridiculous like 3 years. 3 fucking years. "Average interest rate for the previous year" is the most polyanna-ish factoid to look at so it's not surprising Pew is focused on it.

[Anonymous No.53988140]

I've been eating CBD gummies like candy all week and I just got HEEMED at family board game night. Normally I win trivially. Did I fuck up my brain? This shit was just supposed to reduce inflammation.
>positions
60% cash 40% $JEPI. The idea was to have some market exposure from $JEPI, but still have dry powder/a relatively crash resistant holding for a big crash. Then my idea was just to DCA into $JEPI each month a little more in case the crash never came. But $JEPI has been so slovenly that I don't want to add to it, despite its defensive chops.

[Anonymous No.53988146]

Are you afraid yet?

[Anonymous No.53988155]

>>53988140
Some of those have THC added to them as well. It shouldn't do anything to your head. I just smoked a CBD bowl. I've smoked a CBD joint--it just relaxes your body. it stops at your neck I think?

[Anonymous No.53988158]

>>53987489
removing this extension cause of you. retard

[Anonymous No.53988159]

>>53988136
>Average maturity is something ridiculous like 3 years.
Why didnt they do longer dated bonds when they got together funds for covid.

[Anonymous No.53988163]

>>53988038
1k is not going to take you anywhere.
You could go all in with long term divistocks (remember to DCA).
The market won't have an actual good pump anytime soon so those divies will be a good start.

[Anonymous No.53988167]

>>53988159
Why didn't they completely fill the SPR when oil was negative? Only Allah can understand the idiocy of politicians.

[Anonymous No.53988174]

>>53988126
2-3 year seems to be a sweet spot, but you can always sell the coupons before maturity

[Anonymous No.53988175]

>>53986639
>bear markets aren't as intense or lasting as previous generations
Based.

[Anonymous No.53988180]

>>53988158
Wait anon! can you listen to this song before removing the extension? I tell you this one is actually good

[Anonymous No.53988190]

>>53988095
Well we're going to do it anyway.

>>53988111
EPA falls under "matters between the States" in his model so it gets to live. On that chart, almost 3/4 of the spending consists of social security, health, income security, medicare, and education, which could theoretically be handed over to state level administration.
>pay it back
Nope.

[Anonymous No.53988195]

>>53988174
yeah but I don't trust the liquidity in the bond market. Bond market an't for retail. There's big time sharks that only accept large orders and I could be stuck with a damn multiyear muni when I should be using that to slurp the equity dip.

[Anonymous No.53988198]

>>53987338
>SI down 42% after hours
They’re going to be liquidated and it is news.

[Anonymous No.53988207]

>>53988167
>Why didn't they completely fill the SPR when oil was negative
I mean I think they did.

[Anonymous No.53988212]

>>53988198
Its no news. Same as with stocks new lower lows are highly unlikely

[Anonymous No.53988217]

>>53988155
Stops at the neck sounds good, thanks anon. I'm really not worried though, at all. This shit did make me 100% not anxious about anything.

[Anonymous No.53988218]

>>53988207
Trump wanted to and the Dem congress spiked it. "A bailout for big oil" was either Sanders or Schumer's phrasing.

[Anonymous No.53988219]

>>53987354
Very booba

[Anonymous No.53988227]

>>53988190
>social security, health, income security, medicare, and education, which could theoretically be handed over to state level administration.
I mean not every state produces enough tax revenue to support their part of those benefits though.
>pay it back
I cant really believe you are anti gov when you had no problem accepting money from them. Either way taxes should rise for 5-10 years.
>>53988218
Ahh yeah that sounds more probable.

[Anonymous No.53988233]

>>53988212
Anon. It’s making lower lows right damn now damn it.

[Anonymous No.53988237]

>>53988190
>pay it back
>Nope.

Quick refresher that we only "get" a few trillion from the Nips and Chinks if we default. Mostly a default just results in us printing a kazillion a year for Social Security instead of printing half a kazillion and cashing in half a kazillion in fake bonds.

[Anonymous No.53988238]

Fuck anyone who thinks we aren't going down hard. It's going down hard

[Anonymous No.53988245]

>>53987046
my mom fell down some stairs and my brother called the paramedics and when they got here my brother told them what happened and then they asked him to go get something and then when he walked away they asked my mom what really happened, men are just always viewed as evil in this gynocentric society anon

[Anonymous No.53988248]

>>53987731
>thinking usa can win in taiwan

ask Hong Kong how that went

[Anonymous No.53988258]

>>53988227
The man couldn't run a Wendy's to save his life but Trump's instincts had a better track record than any president in the past half century.

[Anonymous No.53988261]

>>53988237
us mutual fund chads can't stop winning

[Anonymous No.53988262]

am an i an ok retard

[Anonymous No.53988271]

>>53988261
I mean, if President Harris tears up a treasury bond on national TV and Fed Chair Krugman fires up the printer, they will. They will very much stop winning.

[Anonymous No.53988272]

>>53988258
Yeah his instincts were pretty good but he always failed to get it done.

[Anonymous No.53988275]

>>53988237
social security was a mistake. the sad thing is, i honestly believe in helping people down on their luck or with serious medical issues, but you and i both know that's not what most of the people getting gibs are like.

[Anonymous No.53988278]

>>53988262
You're an okay retard

[Anonymous No.53988283]

>>53988278
idk i think I'm losing 'It'

[Anonymous No.53988285]

>>53988207
Because they wanted to help anons here who bought oil ETFs when oil was at a local low. They'll start refilling now if they're smart, it's at 76. It's not gonna stay there when DXY starts rising again.
I read that once they actually do start buying oil to refill, the price is going to go back to 120 within days.

[Anonymous No.53988290]

>>53988233
silvergate does, but who cares, its an insulated insident

[Anonymous No.53988293]

>>53988275
Yup, it's not bad in principle. And FDR's ponzi wouldn't be so fatal if they indexed it to life expectancy, removed the cap on payroll taxes, or at least invested it in anything other than treasuries. Alas they didn't and now we're in End Game.

[Anonymous No.53988300]

>>53988248
>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wRT7P-VKM0k&t=3090s

watch the whole thing if you get the chance. zeihan knows his shit. i know someone will talk shit about him because this is 4chan but he's smart as fuck, form your own opinion.

[Anonymous No.53988301]

>>53988283
These past couple months have been exceptionally schizo. Very tough sledding.

[Anonymous No.53988302]

>>53988285
>the price is going to go back to 120 within days.
I dont know about $120 that fast but yeah it looks like they havent bought back yet. Once they do it will do quite a lot. Saudis raising prices to europe and asia anyway. Good chance we get closer to $100 soon.

[Anonymous No.53988310]

>>53988300
>zeihan knows his shit.
He absolutely does not. Gell-Mann amnesia if you ever listen to him talk about a subject you know well.

[Anonymous No.53988313]

>>53988293
im honestly just betting everything on AI at this point. and i don't care if it brings about the utopia or destroys us. either one. just get this gay world over with one way or the other.

[Anonymous No.53988316]

>>53988301
i dont even member when to give up

[Anonymous No.53988317]

>>53988293
>t least invested it in anything other than treasuries
Do you really want the public funds for your tax money to go directly to boosting stock for baggies to dump on? Id prefer only treasuries desu.

[Anonymous No.53988320]

>>53988310
Gell-man...? Also feel free to pick some points he makes in the video and provide a counterargument to them.

[Anonymous No.53988321]

Never underestimate the power of negative thought.

[Anonymous No.53988322]

>>53988300
>zeihan knows his shit
lololol

[Anonymous No.53988325]

>>53988302
I know it sounds crazy but someone, can't remember who, had a good thesis, basically came down to how it will have an outsized impact. SPR is at historic lows and rates are rising and China is getting hungry for Taiwan. They have a window of opportunity to refill now.

[Anonymous No.53988338]

>>53988317
Over a, call it, 30 year time horizon between someone's earning and someone's check cashing? You absolutely want that money parked in equities over bonds.

The social security trust fund is the world's most retarded sovereign wealth fund.

[Anonymous No.53988347]

>>53988290
People who are long or short Silvergate care.

[Anonymous No.53988351]

>>53988320
That faggot was wrong about every single one of his “predictions”

>USA will cut their oil exports instantly to keep oil prices low if there's ever a crisis (it didn't)
>Brazil will no longer be an agricultural competitor after 2019 (they are)
>China will never be able to build enough ships to contest the first island chain until 2200 CE (they have)
>A Brexit deal will never happen because it would require every nation to agree (it did)
>China was going to collapse by 2016 (it hasn't)

The guy is wrong about so much stuff. Not just predictions. Just plain facts, he just says that are stupid. He recently claimed Xi Jinping has only met one world leader since 1999. Thats dumb and wrong on its face. Every talk of him I have seen, he makes dumb claims like that. Hes not very bright, but likes to hear himself talk.
The guy is a total loon
https://youtu.be/aK5kQ3mZddg?t=1913

[Anonymous No.53988371]

>>53988320
https://loricism.fandom.com/wiki/Gell-Mann_Amnesia_Effect

>Also feel free to pick some points he makes in the video and provide a counterargument to them.
Since you seem like a "video type", here's a good example where you can see him rambling about the Jones Act: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INYWATZI0Dk

I'm not going to waste time picking through yet another hour long lecture where he'll leave out some context, misinterpret things, and sprinkle in just enough truth to be irritating. Like reading CNN, those types of charlatans just aren't worth it.

[Anonymous No.53988377]

>>53988325
>They have a window of opportunity to refill now.
Yeah. Oil isnt going back to the regime of $40 for a while. Oil companies arent behaving the same as prior to covid.
>>53988338
>The social security trust fund is the world's most retarded sovereign wealth fund.
Sovereign fund doesnt really fit the US and probably isnt legal. Its the feds picking winners and losers for investments. If the fed invests in LMT does that mean LMT gets all the contracts now over Raytheon? Its too much of a vested interest. Pretty sure its not even legal. Its not about the % gain im saying. Its the political issues.

[Anonymous No.53988380]

Welp the legislators pulled it off. They passed the salary increase. 6% this year (effective July) with another increase in 2024. Percentage of the 2nd one is unknown though. But 2024 is a budget year and they've already said the revenue will be higher than projected. Combined with income tax cut in 2024 (another one, yay) I'll end up pretty good.

[Anonymous No.53988385]

>>53988380
Which boomer stock(s) will you be putting that 6% into?

[Anonymous No.53988390]

>>53988380
>They passed the salary increase. 6% this year
You a federal employee? How much you making now?

[Anonymous No.53988393]

>>53988377
>Sovereign fund doesnt really fit the US and probably isnt legal. Its the feds picking winners and losers for investments. If the fed invests in LMT does that mean LMT gets all the contracts now over Raytheon? Its too much of a vested interest. Pretty sure its not even legal. Its not about the % gain im saying. Its the political issues.
Sure, but I'm saying if you wanted to fix the system or were next to that crippled, shortsighted communist in the 30's drafting the thing. "Legal" at that point was whatever you defined it as.

[Anonymous No.53988399]

>>53987600
I cannot fucking wait for these stupid collections to be worth nothing

[Anonymous No.53988400]

>>53988390
He's a state employee, for Kentucky iirc

[Anonymous No.53988406]

>>53988371
The guy is a faggot. No surprise a total narcissist. Just full of himself.

[Anonymous No.53988412]

>>53988090
Maybe if they changed to UOHN I'd buy some

[Anonymous No.53988417]

>>53988300
>listening to Zeihan on anything
He posted a video talking about how the dollar is going up only in late December.
Which happened to be at the exact pico top of DXY.

He predicted that Europe would be fucked this winter. Then Euro markets put in all time highs. kek.

[Anonymous No.53988426]

i only fap to girls doing yoga on youtube. I have ascended.

[Anonymous No.53988427]

>>53988393
I mean do you really want biden directly investments in this country for the largest fund? No id rather he didnt. Stick it to treasuries only please. It was fixed when interest rates were normalized for years over 0. I do wonder how it being at 5% now would actually do for it but thats down the road.

[Anonymous No.53988431]

>>53988406
Yeah, the first tip off is him being pushed everywhere. The second is the sheer variety of shit he talks about. Nobody "gets" twenty, thirty, fifty different subjects. That his conclusions are always comforting to check writing NGOs and think tanks is almost beside the point.

[Anonymous No.53988450]

>>53988427
Think more "Federal Reserve" and less "State Department". Although I don't know nearly enough about how exactly SWFs around the world are structured/managed.

[Anonymous No.53988455]

>>53988390
>>53988400
It's been nuts (in a good way). From 2020 to 2022 due to promotions and salary hikes by the legislators my salary has gone up over 65%. Then this latest 6% and two income tax cuts (2023 and 2024) added to that. My 401k contribution got hiked 150% a month. To say nothing of my pension increase.

[Anonymous No.53988456]

>>53988417
is he the underground inverse idicator. inverseing cramer has gotten too popular and now cramer has been right lately.

[Anonymous No.53988462]

>>53988426
Let us know when you reach the "girls doing goat yoga" level

[Anonymous No.53988466]

We're going to get a black swan event that causes financial contagion in the next 30 days. There are multiple financial institutions that are showing warning signs.

[FRESH No.53988470]

>>53988467
>>53988467
>>53988467

[Anonymous No.53988477]

>>53987734
There is literally no reason for stocks to go lower.

Hell russia could nuke the entire eastern seaboard and the S&P would probable rally on all the expectations of spending. .

[Anonymous No.53988498]

>>53988456
Possibly. He's very bullish on Mexico and Colombia so going short EWW could be the play here.

[Anonymous No.53988548]

>>53988455
Kentuckian here. I live in a shed and have no income. How does this effect me? U

[Anonymous No.53988793]

>>53988227
State tax revenues would be increased by a large portion of the revenue that's going to the federal government now. Remaining differences in state revenue would be addressed by poorfags moving to the states with high benefits. States that want residents would have to compete to attract them, and states that don't want more residents could get them off their lawn.

>I cant really believe you are anti gov when you had no problem accepting money from them.
Refusing their money won't cause them to stop ruining everything, and I can put the money to better use. I'm not hardcore anti-gov, but the current government is both bloated and self-destructive.

>>53988237
I'm not talking about defaulting. The recommendation is to use short term printing to avoid default, fund infrastructure and domestic or regional production to stabilize costs of living, and cut long term costs to pay for it. New debt at high interest rates would be refinanced later on. I'm simultaneously pointing out that such practices are anti-semitic and will therefore not be allowed by the government.

[Anonymous No.53989775]

>>53986895
it hurts so bad, cause i did buy oil in 2020 and then sold for a modest gain

[Anonymous No.53990627]

hello friends! should I buy some silvergate stonk? the price is really cheap and I heard some guy on YouTube say that it could 10x. is this a good setup for a "short squeeze"? I really think this could be the next gamestop. the ticker is SI