/biz/ - Business & Finance

[Anonymous No.53967793]

>powell commits to raising rates harder and faster
>mortgages already 7%
your plywood box will be worth negative dollars by the time this is over with.

[Anonymous No.53967832]

>>53967793
>your plywood box will be worth negative dollars by the time this is over with.
It won't. The vast majority of homeowners bought before the covid madness. They bought when prices were almost half of what they are today then they got the opportunity to refinance their mortgage to around 3%. All the current homeowners cannot move.
>Can't move to a bigger house. Interest rates and home prices are too high
>Can't downsize. Interest rates would make a smaller home cost as much as their current.
>Even moving into an apartment would cost more than staying in a house bought before covid with a 3% rate
The market is in a stalemate. Current homeowners can't afford to move and don't want to lower their prices. Home buyers can't afford to buy.
We will see home prices come down very slowly because the sellers don't NEED to sell. Wages over time will catch up with the price of homes.

[Anonymous No.53967833]

Good. I'll finally be able to start my new business: "Anon's plywood box takeaway services LLC" we'll take your less than worthless plywood boxes and give you a firm handshake and a wink in return.

[Anonymous No.53967859]

>>53967832
>We will see home prices come down very slowly because the sellers don't NEED to sell. Wages over time will catch up with the price of homes.

rate hikes mean unemployment.

[Anonymous No.53967953]

>>53967859
Powell said unemployment is the goal. Destruction of capital to reduce inflation by forcing RE defaults, forcing businesses to default and reducing employment. 80s here we come.

[Anonymous No.53967994]

>>53967859
It means unemployment for diverse hires. People who do real work are not going to lose their job. A lady I work with pays $800 on her mortgage a month for a 3bd 2ba house. grantee she bought 20 years ago. She could work min-wage and get by. Is she ever going to be forced to sell? NO. She is an extreme example but most homeowners could with a pay cut.

[Asshole No.53968018]

>>53967953

Meanwhile infinite printing into stocks and shitcoin is what's still cashing inflation.

Oh, and blatant supply chain manipulation including food production.

Shame his fucking Metro train doesn't get derailed.

[Anonymous No.53968096]

>>53967994
anon you don't understand how businesses actually work, do you? i work in corporate accounting/finance. they don't care if you do "real work." when sales forecasts drop they start cutting SG&A as hard as fast as possible.

[Anonymous No.53968113]

>>53968096
How would this work for a hypothetical very large corporation that’s planning a split later this year? Would they still dump on staff or will they need to do more hiring post split?

[Anonymous No.53968170]

>>53967832
Besides the poor bastards of cuckanada and aussie, they both have 2-4yrs fixed rates and gonna get fucked hard this year around

[Anonymous No.53968219]

>>53968113
i've been through a half dozen acquisitions and one divestiture. if your company is divesting an arm of business, you'd better hope that you aren't in the arm that's going away. they'll keep you on for a few months to ensure a smooth transition and then the acquiring company will axe you. this ALWAYS happens. if you're lucky you'll get a severance.

[Anonymous No.53968250]

>>53968219
It’s a clean split rather than a sell off and to be honest I don’t know which half is keeping the name/“remainco” and which is the spinco
I also do m&a for this hypothetical company kek. Thoughts on m&a as a safe field for recessions?

[Anonymous No.53968252]

>>53967793
kek
nice meme fren

[Anonymous No.53968274]

>>53967833
Can I be your hiring manager?

[Anonymous No.53968279]

>>53968250
>Thoughts on m&a as a safe field for recessions?
lmao. you're kidding, right?
>cost of capital increases dramatically
>this is good for m&a activity, right guys?

[Anonymous No.53968307]

>>53967832
You're forgetting the demographic angle. In ten years most of the boomer hoomers will be dead or in nursing homes. That's going to flood the market.

[Anonymous No.53968313]

>>53968279
Well m&a also includes sell offs and split ups does it not? Companies would just restructure to create liquidity rather than to acquire new businesses

[Anonymous No.53968333]

>>53968307
That’ll be great for all the women and BIPOC people of color that get federal subsidies to buy those houses

[Anonymous No.53968345]

>>53967793
Give it up already, the boomers and banks will literally NEVER let the housing market crash.

[Anonymous No.53968377]

>>53967994
>Boomer/Gen-X
If she gets fired, no one is hiring her, not even minimum wage.

[Anonymous No.53968384]

>>53968170
Not quite. The cuckanada and aussie why bought at extreme prices will. The ones who bought before the madness will pay more but hopefully, they got a pay raise during coivd and can withstand higher rates.

>>53968096
My point still stands. A homeowner can withstand a pay cut more than a rentcuck. Inflation makes the mortgage cheaper over time and rents have typically kept up or surpassed wages.
>Renter loses their 100k job they move back in with parents
>Homeowner loses their 100k job they get an 80k job and forgoes buying a new truck

>>53968307
That is still years out. Boomers have another 10~15 years before they require nursing homes. Are you really going to wait 10 years? you are missing out on a lot of inflation and equity.

[Anonymous No.53968395]

>>53968333
Which subsidies?

[Anonymous No.53968397]

>>53967793
If they could, they would've done so already. Inflation is still wild and they're fiddling with 25 bps hikes.

[Anonymous No.53968408]

>>53968384
>A homeowner can withstand a pay cut more than a rentcuck
in the best of circumstances maybe
you are assuming every home owner is extremely responsible with their finances
there is zero reason to make this assumption in 2023 america
and no, people having a good credit score doesn't mean they can weather any financial storm

[Anonymous No.53968425]

>>53968395
The ones that the democrats will pass once the demographic picture becomes obvious to everyone
You don’t really think they aren’t going to just give your tax dollars to black women, do you?

[Anonymous No.53968426]

>>53968377
There is still an employee shortage in service jobs and lots of other industries other than project management in a start up.

[Anonymous No.53968431]

>>53968333
>>53968395
he's referring to banks offering minorities mortgages with no down payment; what always gets ignored in this is that the offer is only good for select communities, i.e. ones that are already full of minorities anyway.

[Anonymous No.53968438]

>>53968384
>Renter loses their 100k job they move back in with parents
>Homeowner loses their 100k job they get an 80k job and forgoes buying a new truck
why doesn't the renter get an $80k job in this scenario? why do you assume the homeowner can still tread water with a $20k pay cut in this scenario?
>A homeowner can withstand a pay cut more than a rentcuck.
no they can't. the mass foreclosures in 2008 were precipitated by 10% unemployment. that's not even "that bad."

[Anonymous No.53968520]

>>53968438
>no they can't. the mass foreclosures in 2008 were precipitated by 10% unemployment. that's not even "that bad."
This is not 2008. People have fixed debt in an inflationary environment.
2008 people had adjustable rate debt with lower inflation. The adjustable rate mortgage became popular 3 years before 2008. I wonder if everyone's rates jumping all at once had something to do with the crash????

[Anonymous No.53968576]

>>53968520
ah yes, the 'things are different this time' meme
people like you think literally every house is currently financed on a fixed 2-3% interest rate.

[Anonymous No.53968580]

>>53968384
This is some completely out of touch bullshit. It reeks of 60 year old hands relying on real estate always going up.

[Anonymous No.53968589]

>>53968576
>'things are different this time' meme
This is the 80s not 2008

[Anonymous No.53968597]

>>53967793
nigger i bought my house early 2017. it has 4 bedrooms, a front and backyard and 2 car garage. the retarded money printing has caused minimum wage to go up so much that it has become afordable to pay my mortage. in the mean time i will continue clicking send on emails at my wfh job until they fire me. after i will collect unemployment cheques for 9 months which will be way higher than minimum wage because it is based on a percentage of my current job. after that ends i will just get a shitty job doing simple administrative tasks. op is a faggot

[Anonymous No.53968778]

>>53968274
Yes sir, in fact you can be in charge of managing and wrangling the tards.

[Anonymous No.53969581]

>>53968431
>he thinks it stops there
How many more freebies need to come out of your taxes and into black pockets before you wake the fuck up to the trend? Nigger teens get college degrees and iPhones on your dime ffs

[Anonymous No.53969610]

>>53968438
Why didn’t you answer me

[Anonymous No.53969668]

>>53969610
because you have such a fundamental misunderstanding of how acquisitions and divestitures work that it's hard to give you any guidance. in an economic recession no one is buying a failing company. no one is buying stock at a subsequent offering, no one is taking on debt at a massive interest rate -- there's no way to fund the deal.

go talk to anyone who worked in m&a or m&a-adjacent industries during the last crash. i know that accounting firms (KPMG and EY specifically) are shitcanning people in accounting advisory and transactional services roles right now.

[Anonymous No.53969977]

>>53968589
just let the idiot believes what he wants. he watched the big short and now frames everything through that lens. it comforts his simple mind to portray all events and static and repeating. you have to understand the mind of a renting anon. imagine this anon is walking down the road and another guy drives by in a porsche, this anon instantly consoles himself by laughing it off as "ah but he leased that". the same act of denial and envy are on display in this thread "these homeowners are going to get rekt". the simpleton anon thus is not the loser, its always other ppl who are.

[Anonymous No.53970021]

>>53968576

Just under 40% of houses in the US have no mortgage at all. Given the absolute drop in sales volume, it is not unreasonable to assume that majority of homes were purchase before the rate hikes. Which leaves a tiny minority of people who bought with the current high rates. There is a massive uptick in refinancing during the record low rates.

https://fortune.com/2023/03/02/housing-market-lock-in-effect-3-percent-mortgage-rates-real-estate-home-buyers-sellers/

[Anonymous No.53970030]

>>53969977
>what is projection

[Anonymous No.53970077]

>>53967994
>real work
Kek what planet do you live on?

[Anonymous No.53970083]

>>53969668
Almost all I’ve done so far have been split offs and only one of them involved an RMT transaction. None of the others had a buyer, the companies just cleaved in two. Why exactly are you fixating on the acquisition aspect? I don’t think I’m fundamentally misunderstanding anything. In fact, almost all I do are D 355s in which you can’t have acquired the functioning businesses within 5 years.
Also my team literally JUST hired two more people less than a month ago, so what you’re saying isn’t making sense based on my day to day. Instead of just being a dick about it why don’t you explain what the issue is.

[Anonymous No.53970087]

>>53968307
Why would that flood the market? The houses dont get auctioned off, they just transfer to heirs who will then have a rental prop / vacation home.

[Anonymous No.53970088]

>>53970021
exactly, very few people are buying right now, because it's not worth it (i.e. prices are going to drop)

and 40% of houses not having a mortgage at all is bearish. your whole point was that nobody is going to sell because they locked in a low interest rate. well that doesn't matter at all to people who have no mortgage, obviously

once the upcoming recession is undeniable, you will have people rushing for the exit. even people on a 3% fixed interest will want to sell and lock in their 6 figure gains.

[Anonymous No.53970098]

>>53970030
I am a homeowner. I will purchase another house if this "crash" you keep masturbating every occurs. We are not the same.

[Anonymous No.53970170]

>>53970088
Very few people buying and very few people selling is a neutral outlook. It leads to a stagnant market. If wages do catch up, it will lead to a drop in real estate price in real term value. But the feds is hell bent on increasing unemployment, to stop inflation. It will continue to widen wealth gap between the haves and the have nots.

Unfortunately or fortunately, the Feds is fucking shit at their jobs and is failing in basically all ends.

[Anonymous No.53970183]

>>53969668
>a market crash means literally nobody spends any money ever
90iq right here

[Anonymous No.53970210]

>>53970183
how many acquisitions and divestitures have you done the accounting for, retard?

[Anonymous No.53970258]

>>53970210
>herp derp accounting
Omg an accountant topkek. Listen retard, a market crash would mean tons and tons of split ups and divestitures which makes business for companies that do those. For some reason you think that a market crash means literally nobody has a job. At the height of the Great Depression 75% of people kept their jobs dipshit.
(You) the nigger cube monkey might get laid off but the idea no M&A teams will continue thriving is why you’ll stay poor

[Anonymous No.53970289]

>>53970098
>I am a homeowner
of a 150k shitbox in a flyover state
nobody cares

[Anonymous No.53970292]

>>53970258
https://www.statista.com/statistics/914665/number-of-ma-deals-usa/

good afternoon drooling nigger retard

[Anonymous No.53970320]

>>53970292
>sends a paywalled graph
Lmao
Again you are a fucking retard. You don’t seem to understand that some M&A professionals focus on sales and splits. This is why I make double your salary as an M&A lawyer and am not an accountant

[Anonymous No.53970334]

>>53970320
i'm sure you are, mixed race 20 year old college sophomore. don't forget to spend your welfare check on the wallstreet oasis interview guides!

[Anonymous No.53970359]

>>53970334
>y-y-you’re l-l-lying…
Hahahahaha! Crybaby fucking bitch. Meanwhile I’ll remain collecting fees to copy and paste ruling requests while you arrogantly spread your midwittery on /biz/

[Anonymous No.53970360]

>>53970289
you will rent my second house from me. you will pay part of your rent by allowing me 45 uninterrupted minutes with your daughter (if she is 18 or older) and/or wife depending on how behind you are.

[Anonymous No.53970369]

>>53967793
GAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHHAAHAHAHAHAHAHHAAHAHAHHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Since FTX i cummed so much. Oh god. Oh yeeeeeees.
So many people technically that where considered somehow rich or powerful got fucked so much. Their lifes got destroyed like no turn back forever. They lost all. They will never ever reach at the same level again.
So many suicides. So many marriages and family's destroyed.
I'm so happy. So satisfied. And them, here we are. We still have much havoc to distribute.
Things got out of control exactly like what say that is gonna happen.

Trying to hold 20K ~15K range you pathetic whales? Having some difficulties?
FUCK. I feel GOOD.

Me? I'm absolutely fine. Feet on the ground. Cool head. Knowing what and with some god dam time to work in projects that i love.
I'm happy and fine.

[Anonymous No.53970375]

>>53970292
I can’t read this and you still haven’t answered me. I focus on split ups/spin offs so will I be safer than someone in your position for a crash?

[Anonymous No.53970386]

>>53970359
your inferior mulatto brain betrays your negroe lineage. no one believes a word coming out of those big ugly nigger lips, jamal.

[Anonymous No.53970399]

>>53970386
>y-y-you’re b-b-b-b-lack…..
Hahahahahaha!!! Concession accepted, now make sure to tally up those numbers correctly or the lawyers might make you do it again cubicle bitch

[Anonymous No.53970410]

>>53970399
>Hahahahahaha!!!
simmer down, niggermonkey. i don't want to have to call the zoo keeper.

[Anonymous No.53970420]

>>53970369
what is this a poem? son stop posting this on 4chan in the wal-mart break room and go sweep aisle 13.

[Anonymous No.53970426]

>>53970410
>maybe if I repeat myself again it won’t be cringe
>>>/pol/

[Anonymous No.53970433]

>>53970375
who is buying a spin off in an economic recession?

[Anonymous No.53970453]

>>53970426
move along, congoloid beast

[Anonymous No.53970458]

>>53970420
>what is this a poem?
well, thank you. kind of.
>wal-mart break room
not wage slaving for boomers that have lower IQ than mine. this is for the niggers and normies.
>go sweep
keep my own room clean it's already fine bro.

[Anonymous No.53970460]

>>53970433
I’m a little confused by your question to be honest. For the ones I have done, the company has just let some of its current employees become the new execs of the “Spinco” entities. I.e., Global Corp does a ton of moving around of business units and then spins out SpinCo, with Global Corp as remainco. The current shareholders then become owners of both. I guess the IPOs will suffer but that isn’t really my purview

[Anonymous No.53970470]

>>53970453
I’m not black so you really just look like an idiot. This makes no sense anyway because at best you’re getting bitched out by a nigger.

[Anonymous No.53970497]

>>53968307
>That's going to flood the market.
No it's not. Boomers are gonna lose their houses to the government who are gonna sell them to corporations to recoup Medicaid expenses for the elderly.

[Anonymous No.53970585]

>>53970460
yes, and what is the goal of a spin off? to make the company attractive as a standalone entity for sale to a third party. why would a company invest millions of dollars in restructuring (deal advisory, accounting advisory, etc.) when the number of prospective buyers dwindles due to increased cost of a capital?

[Anonymous No.53970642]

>>53970585
>yes, and what is the goal of a spin off? to make the company attractive as a standalone entity for sale to a third party.
This isn’t always true. I’m currently doing one (when not /biz/posting) where the company is splitting for regulatory reasons. I’m also very lucky in that we exclusively do work for companies worth more than a billion dollars so I’m not super worried about a lack of buyers

[newfag No.53970739]

>>53970497
do the corporations use them as offices?

[Anonymous No.53971024]

>>53970739
No, corporations like Blackstone buy them from the government for a great price and then either re-list them immediately at an insane markup or rent them out.

[Anonymous No.53971033]

>>53970497
boomers are on medicare, not medicaid

[Anonymous No.53971048]

>>53970642
that's a good point, i never considered it from a regulatory perspective. i'd say you're fairly safe in that's the type of thing you work with. fwiw i'm currently in a regulatory aligned role (statutory reporting) and i'm not worried at all about losing my job....

[Anonymous No.53973417]

>>53970088
People don't sell their homes to lock in profits like it's some trade. That is absurd. You are naïve. They sell because they have to. From losing their job or can't afford payments.

[Anonymous No.53973449]

>>53973417
>literally nobody has ever sold a house to lock in profit bro
>especially not during a recession where making money becomes very difficult

[Anonymous No.53974583]

>>53967832
Look at how many niggers on Youtube started flipping businesses on heloc leverage BRRR. Those niggers are fucked and are having to liquidate as we post.

[Anonymous No.53974695]

>>53973449
he literally said >From losing their job or can't afford payments
house prices aren't going anywhere if unemployment doesn't increase, because if you still have a job you can afford to keep the house. and even if unemployment increases, demand could be affected too because you're not gonna commit to a mortgage if you lose your job or if you might lose your job. house prices might dip slightly but they're not going back to pre-covid levels. keep seething rentoid

[Anonymous No.53974743]

>>53974695
>demand could be affected too because you're not gonna commit to a mortgage if you lose your job
oh exactly
that's why prices are going to crash lol
you idiots can't even follow your own chain of logic

[Anonymous No.53974749]

>>53974743
he realized how retarded his post was and deleted it kek

[Anonymous No.53974791]

>>53967832
Thats bot true, the mahority of homeowners bought 2020 and post. Even if they bought with record low interest rates, their respective valuetions are fucked up. Think of all thos WFH ediots that thought it was a good idea to HELOC to oblivion

[Anonymous No.53974810]

>>53974695

You’re correct, it’s going to take massive layoffs and a ton of people loosing their jobs. In 08 that’s exactly what happened. Everyone got laid off, companies lost work and contracts, and the economy came to a screeching halt.

If the government hadn’t of bailed out the banks, our economy would have collapsed, and boomers would have lost everything. Which would have resulted in a massive wealth transfer to new young entrepreneurs.

Wish it would have happened. Instead boomers collect dividends, and stomp the younger generations into the ground

[Anonymous No.53974835]

I have 200k in cash and no home atm. I need the finance masterminds of 4chan to advise me on my next move.

[Anonymous No.53974847]

>>53974835

People on 4chan might advise hookers and blow. My advise is to do the opposite

[Anonymous No.53974851]

>>53974835
just wait a year
you could buy now with that kind of down payment but you're gonna regret it

[Anonymous No.53974869]

>>53974835
All in GME and directly registered in your name via Computershare.

[Anonymous No.53974884]

>>53968384
people are coping but this is the truth

>>53968307
the homes will just go to the kids who currently can't afford homes, and/or back to the bank or investment firm that financed their reverse mortgage to fund the boomers retirement they didn't plan for

[Anonymous No.53974902]

>>53974884
every boomer death i've seen has resulted in the house being sold because the siblings want the money. but go ahead and predict the future for literally every boomer family in america bro

[Anonymous No.53974922]

>>53974902
I hope you are right

[Anonymous No.53974942]

>>53974902

In 1972 you could buy a ounce of gold for 65$. The federal minimum wage was 1.60$.

If you divide 65/1.60= 40

Modern day a ounce of gold can be purchased for around 1800. If you divide 1800 by 40 that equals 45$ a hour…

[Anonymous No.53975497]

>>53970497

This is very true. Get a lawyer and have your elderly parents transfer ownership & retain a Life Estate, the sooner the better.

[Anonymous No.53975532]

>>53967793
I want 10+% rates

[Anonymous No.53975565]

>>53974835
keep it dry, when rates go up to 15% then buy a CD and go hitchhike around the beach and be a hobo for the next 20 years then retire with your million dollars

[Anonymous No.53975635]

>>53968425
I was asking for which ones I should apply to
>>53968431
That's not even a subsidy. It's a way to lock desperate people into high monthly payments until they can't pay anymore and they can seize the house (like last time).
>>53969581
God I wish. Having the same kind of income stream that mediocre WASPs and Midwesterners get in young adulthood from their parents so that I wouldn't have to worry about food and housing while I got the math degree I would, by merit, be able to pursue over 90% of my peers in an actually civilized country would be nice.

[Anonymous No.53975636]

>>53968018
Does he really take wmata? kek