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53744173 No.53744173 [Reply] [Original]

Who here /cashgang/?

>> No.53744185
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53744185

junk bond gang

>> No.53744235

Been all cash since Biden took office. Probably will stay this way until interest rates start dropping.

>> No.53744241
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53744241

>>53744173
VUSB SHV

>> No.53744248
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53744248

I am 100% SOXS gang

>> No.53744291

I've been doing a 3 month ladder. Rates are slowing but I still think we have a bit more to go. Services are still way overheated, we're a long way from 2%.

>> No.53744318
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53744318

>>53744173
/cumgang/ reporting

>> No.53744323
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>>53744248
Seriously 100%, danskerbro?

>> No.53744369
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>>53744291
2% you re fun. you will never see 2% again. 3 or 4 % will be good enough for victory. before 70 inflation the target was below 2%....

>> No.53744378

>5% when inflation is 6%

>> No.53744407

I'm 80% in cash/BIL and use the remaining 20% to swing trade SQQQ/TQQQ. Waiting for that bottom.
SPY 300-320 this year.

>> No.53744412
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53744412

>>53744378
i have a friend saving in BoA at 0.01% Friend....i mean coworker..... why are people so dumb ?

>> No.53744420

>>53744173
I am short bond gang

>> No.53744436
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53744436

>>53744323
Ja.

>> No.53744525

>>53744412
I don't understand these ~0% normie savings accounts. How do they still exist?

>> No.53744549
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>>53744525
bank don t need your money. may change with QT https://fedguy.com/hiking-at-60b-a-month/#more-5888

>> No.53744587
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53744587

>>53744173
I'm 2/3 cash. (Actual cash doesn't appear there)

>> No.53744610

>>53744173
yeah I put 250K into tbills last month
this is a "normal" interest rate which allows thrifty people to live off interest with no risk

>> No.53744631

>>53744610
>5% nominal
>6% inflation
>living off -1% real yield

>> No.53744638

>>53744631
there's a cost to remaining liquid, but an opportunity as well
also, how' that 401k doing?

>> No.53744667
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53744667

>>53744631
don t bother. i tried already. people just don t understand

>> No.53744705

>>53744638
Do you know what liquid means? Stocks are liquid. You mean volatile. And a 401k is just a retirement account it could fixed income, stocks, you could cash gang your 401k if you wanted.

>> No.53744732
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>>53744705
liquid...like that ?

>> No.53744897

>>53744631
that 6% figure is completely false as well
it's 6% after they remove energy, food, housing, medical bills, etc.
they're calculating it from shit like subscriptions and other nonsense garbage indicators

>> No.53745956

Treasuries and bank deposits can no longer be considered a risk free investment. Consider US default and bank runs.

>> No.53745997
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53745997

>>53744610
250k? I thought the max was 10k

>> No.53746045

>>53745997
No, the maximum purchase is $10 million (unless you enter a competitive bid via a financial institution).

>> No.53746236

>>53744631

6% vs -40% in stonks

>> No.53746250

>>53744897
Apparently one of the fed officials came out and said he uses frozen lasagna prices as his gauge

>> No.53746255

I got a rung of a ladder expiring. Might do a 1 year since it appears to be uninverting the 6mo. My shorts have caused me sharts so I'm staying cash instead of shorting while I slurp adequate dips.

>> No.53746354

>>53744378
Losing 1% of your purchasing power a year is better than losing 10% or more. The era of low risk real returns is over, if you want to increase purchasing power through investments you better be prepared to be a degenerate.

>> No.53746403

>>53746354
Yeah, I don't understand these yield chasers. Inflation doesn't care what's in your investment portfolio. The things you buy got X% more expensive over the past year. You can make your portfolio high-risk/high-return or low-risk/low-return, as always. That's it.

>> No.53747847

>>53744610
5% is still fairly low, historically.

>>53744631
It has been a better choice than stocks lately.

>>53744705
Do you? t-bills are easy to sell and therefore very liquid.

>>53744897
Agreed, inflation is still significantly higher than 6%. I did some of my own calculations, just using my own expenses, house, car, etc. and I'd say between 2019 and today the value of the dollar has deceased by about 35%.

>>53745997
Maybe you are thinking of electronic I-bonds? Those are 10k max online and 15k paper, I believe.

>>53746255
I'm still keeping my ladder pretty short. I think we still have some hikes for the rest of the year. The de- inversion is just investor expectations coming around that rate hikes are going to continue.

>> No.53748583

When you say be a degenerate do you mean take risk?

>> No.53749087

>>53747847
>muh low historically
Nigger, 5% near risk free return after over a decade of nothing during a period where asset prices in a myriad of classes such as real estate, stocks, precious metals, etc... are flat or dropping means that 5% for a 6 month treasury is a good move.

>> No.53749115

>>53748583
Degenerate=High leverage on extremely speculative companies

>> No.53749440

>>53746236
>-40%
The S&P 500 is down like -15% from ATH, up from 2 years ago, and up over 200% from 10 years ago.

>>53746354
>>53746403
Shit if you measure things in dollars, then dollar denominated things are going to be less volatile. But the dollar is losing 6% of its real value every year. And the supply will probably be diluted even more than that. If you holding bonds you are giving yourself a 100% chance of losing real value just so that you don't have any volatility. The fact that you get 0%, 5%, 10% in nominal return is psychological manipulation to make you think you're getting a better/worse deal. All gov bond interest is paid by a gov deficit, money printing, the interest will always be less than the term supply inflation.

Your 5% is just paid by supply inflation, its fake gains and will just be reflected in asset values eventually anyway. Assets will have higher returns now too because there is more inflation and money printing that causes the need for the fed to raise interest rates to try and psy op you into valuing dollars more.

>> No.53749488

>>53747847
Both public stocks and treasuries are liquid. You can easily sell them, but their market value will be volatile. Long term treasury bonds can be more volatile than stocks. You are talking about volatility. Short term t bills are not volatile, and you are paying for that because you are getting negative real returns.

>> No.53749684

Commodities and shorts gang
But commodities were supposed to pump with the shorts instead they're dumping like tech, very sad.

>> No.53751943

>>53749440
Even if you measure their market value in inflation-adjusted dollars instead of nominal dollars, stocks, gold, and Bitcoin have still been more volatile than T-bills.
That's historical volatility. If you think the future volatility (as measured in inflation-adjusted dollars, not nominal dollars) of T-bills will be much higher than in the past -- even higher than Bitcoin or gold or whatever -- you could be right. That's a prediction.

>> No.53752583 [DELETED] 

new thread
>>53752560
>>53752560
>>53752560

>> No.53752765

>>53751943
Yeah because the dollar has widespread use in pricing and as a unit of account. That price stickiness absorbs at lot of short term volatility in the value of the currency. But if the government prints 5%/year extra to pay 5% interest rates, then over time the dollar will just be diluted 1 / 1.05 every year, which will just lead to inflation / value drop equal to the ponzi interest rate.

For example, there are only 21,000,000 bitcoins, but you get 0% on bitcoin. If you are getting 5% on cash, but that is paid for by supply inflation, that just increases the dollars dilution relative to bitcoin. So that 5% rate will eventually be reflected into bitcoin long term appreciation vs the dollar. So you aren't getting 5% holding cash, you aren't missing out on 5% holding assets. Its purely a numbers game.

>> No.53753656

>>53752765
The relationship between the money supply and inflation isn't so simple. When the money supply grows faster than economic growth, you get inflation. Printing money doesn't automatically cause inflation.

>> No.53755490

>>53753656
price inflation of consumer goods, no, but asset prices yes.

>> No.53755510

>>53752765
No, it wont, because Bitcoin has no value.

>> No.53755668

>>53755510
It has utility value from its scarcity. If adoption remained stable, then the exchange rate between bitcoin and dollars will grow as more and more dollars printed. Although growth and speculation will cause huge volatility - I am talking about prices of scarce assets in general. If the government prints more money to pay higher and higher interest, that will just get reflected back in these asset prices in the long term.

Its like a farming shitcoin that has high APY, but its just paid in minting. The dollar and gov debt works the same way. Even if you earn 4,5,6% or w/e if its just funded by gov money printing then you're piece of the pie is still going down.

Actual inflation consumer goods could still be modest because of metric rigging, shrinkflation, quality cuts, or actual technological/production improvements. I am just talking about investment assets. As long as the gov runs a deficit, it doesn't matter what percent they are paying in ponzi interest.

>> No.53757775

>>53755668
Noone is adopting Bitcoin. Its a pile of dogshit

>> No.53758157

>>53749087
I've been buying three month, so, I'm not exactly far off from your position. I agree the t-bills are a good buy now. I think they'll get higher though.

>> No.53758213

>>53744235
smarter than us all if true

>> No.53759370
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>> No.53759742

>>53744235
>since Biden took office
why?

>> No.53759818

>>53744407
>swing trading SQQQ/TQQQ
I literally told myself I'd start doing that too. Keeping whatever "trading" I do simple. But for investing, DCA'ing larger amounts into 401k but holding out for more dumps and better price targets for those tech stocks.