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/biz/ - Business & Finance

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53515970 No.53515970 [Reply] [Original]

He's not going to pivot.

>> No.53515995

Based

>> No.53516075

>>53515970
Basado

>> No.53516116

>>53515970
I wish he'd pivot on my cock

>> No.53516220

Basoom

>> No.53516242

He will come out and say the chances of a soft landing have increased and then we’ll go to the moon

>> No.53516252

>>53515970
how long before his announcement?
t. dumb europoor

>> No.53516281

>>53516116
Same

>> No.53516302

>>53516252
2pm eastern time tomorrow so whenever that is in euroland.

>> No.53516313
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53516313

>>53515970
The market will crash once he does. The only thing keeping bad economic news from being bad news is that it fuels pivooting. Pants shitter could come out tomorrow and declare war on Chinapop and declare the Great depression 2.0 and markets would pump on pivoot copium. Once the pivor happens and the pumps stop its endless fields of pink. The bad news becomes bad news and the bad news won't stop coming
>and it won't stop coming
>and it won't stop coming
>and it won't stop coming
>and it won't stop coming
>and it won't stop coming
>and it won't stop coming

>> No.53516338

>>53516313
>>53515970
>>53516313
, the market is in a state of euphoria, jpow tomorrow pops the bubble... 25 bps is sell the news, 50 bps is brutal dump. Market dumps anyways... there's no bullish scenario 2morrow

>> No.53516384

>>53516338
while I agree 50bps is most likely, 75 actually still isn't out of the question given how much he was fuming the last time around when the market rallied

>> No.53516409

>>53516338
25 is what everyone's expecting, it'll dip and return right quick after, eternal crab market is a happy balancing act in JPOWs mind until he can say he got his soft landing

>> No.53516434

>>53516384
10,000bps pay up goyim niggers

>> No.53516587

Of course not. There's no reason for him to. The market isn't pricing for a pivot though. When he doesn't pivot, the market won't plummet. The market is pricing for a 50 basis point hike and then a more dovish disposition. If he hikes it more than 50 basis points or is basically like "fuck the markets, I want a recession" you'll see a significant drop.

>> No.53516699

>>53516302
thank you anon
>>53516338
>>53516384
>>53516409
>>53516587
any of you anons might write out your thoughts on what are the chances of different hike levels?

>> No.53516721

>>53516699
20% 75bps
45% 50bps
35% 25bps
sounds about right

>> No.53516732

50 BEPIS
0

B
E
P
I
S

>> No.53516786

>>53516699
The market has priced in at 98% of a .25% increase tomorrow. Simply stated for those who don't know what that means, is that stocks and bonds have adjusted prices and debt predictions based upon a .25% increase and those stocks and bonds are now at equilibrium of their price vs interest rates.

tldr; Jewish magic.

>> No.53516814

>>53516721
25 bps is effectively 100% certain.
Even if it were the wrong move, it's too late to change without surprising the markets.
One thing Powell can do to kill the rally is commit to accelerated unwinding of the balance sheet. Another is to indicate an intention to keep rates or above 4.25% for the next two years.

>> No.53516835

>>53516721
So you are saying that 50bps hike is most likely
>>53516786
And you are saying that 25bps hike is what the market makers expect?

>> No.53516839

>>53516814
they will hold rates here at least for 12-15 months, otherwise what the fuck was the point
the stock market will drop another 30% in "value"

>> No.53516859

>>53516835
no the other anon is right. 25bps is much more likely because (((market))). I gave a biased opinion based on what should be happening, not what's actually most likely to happen

>> No.53516862

Too many bears camouflaging as bulls at the moment, Intentionally spamming unreasonable outcomes in order to elevate expectations to something that could only lead to disappointment

>> No.53516885

>>53516814
There’s literally no fucking rule that he’s not allowed to surprise the markets.
If he doesn’t, we are going right back to where this started.

>> No.53516912

>>53516839
The market is pricing in a cut in rates by the end of the year. If Powell wants to rule out that scenario, he should say so explicitly.

>>53516885
>There’s literally no fucking rule that he’s not allowed to surprise the markets.
Of course there is. Everything is telegraphed far ahead of time to allow the market to adjust in an orderly way. Surprising with a 75 bps hike would cause a meltdown that could impair market functioning. That's the last thing he wants to do.

>> No.53517041

>>53516862
A bunch of anons on a 4chan board aren't going to affect the economy in a discernable way

>> No.53517044
File: 271 KB, 1169x1857, DBEE8554-7284-4951-B32B-ECD1704F2A67.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
53517044

>>53516912
No there isn’t. This is what you get for accommodating the market. The stock market has nothing to do with the fed’s mandate

>> No.53517071

>>53515970
Noshit :D But I enjoyed these gains anyway. Thanks normies.

>> No.53517080
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53517080

>>53515970

>> No.53517141

So why does this guy hate market rallies? Explain it to me like I'm 5 years old.

>> No.53517189

>>53517141
how does a $500 burger sound, retard?

>> No.53517233

>>53517044
I didn't mention the stock market. It's part of the Fed's mandate to ensure smooth functioning of credit markets. That means jawboning before the blackout period when there is a mismatch in expectations.

>> No.53517274
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53517274

>>53516699
My dreams have told me everyone expects 25 but it will be 50 followed by a return to reality as markets dump.

>> No.53517284

>>53517189
I'm unironically fine with it if my chainlink is $82,000.

>> No.53517584
File: 161 KB, 474x355, image_2023-01-31_212614407.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
53517584

>>53515970
neither is she

>> No.53517617

>>53515970
checked

>> No.53517686

>>53517189
That sounds awful, but I said explain it like I'm 5, not explain it like you're 5

>> No.53517839
File: 34 KB, 984x884, whatwillhappen2.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
53517839

>>53516384
>while I agree 50bps is most likely
Literally everyone is expecting 25bps, where the fuck are you getting 50?

>> No.53517915

>>53517839
Bobos don't live in reality.