Thucydides Trap

[Anonymous No.53383462]

>Thucydides Trap, or Thucydides' Trap, is a term popularized by American political scientist Graham T. Allison to describe an apparent tendency towards war when an emerging power threatens to displace an existing great power as a regional or international hegemon.[1] It was coined and is primarily used to describe a potential conflict between the United States and the People's Republic of China.
Do you really think China will be the one to emerge and try and become the main economic power? How long do you think it will take, and will it require war or will it just be pure economic dominance.

I am posting this on /biz/ because it is economics related and if I post it on /pol/ it will just devolve to talking about Jews, which may be a factor but I need a comprehensive answer here.

[Anonymous No.53383508]

>>53383462
I don't think China will be the one country to successfully combine dictatorship with capitalism. The question is whether it will reform or collapse. If it collapses, it won't be the main economic power in the world.

[Anonymous No.53383528]

>>53383508
Eventually some other power has to come along and challenge the current state of things, in this example the US. What faction(s) do you think would do it?

[Anonymous No.53383562]

>>53383528
Personally I think the US will split apart like the Soviet Union. It's not like Americans have any unifying culture anyway.

[Anonymous No.53383583]

>>53383562
Expand on how you think this will go down in this split, I am genuinely curious.

[Anonymous No.53383659]

>>53383583
I think it will be a racial split, a few mostly-white countries, a few Asian countries, a few Arab countries and a ton of black and Mexican countries. I'm not a prophet, though, it just seems like people like to be with other people like them when they are in danger.

[Anonymous No.53383673]

>>53383462
Jews

[Anonymous No.53383706]

>>53383462
China is not a rising power, it doesn't have the demographic dynamism. It might regain it if the old and the men die, but that outcome entails such catastrophic consequences that Xi could not sanely be banking on it. In 30-40 years, a resurgent China could challenge the West after a period of chaos and collapse. Alternatively, the PRC could solidify its stranglehold on power, but that outcome is difficult to discern.

[Anonymous No.53384119]

>>53383462
how are we going to communicate online with these people? will we have common shared memes one day?
seems like AI should be able to handle translating easier

[Anonymous No.53384154]

>>53383462
you don't understand the Thucydides trap

it means that when a faction emerges with enough power to be a threat to US, war is INEVITABLE

so the question is, can China leverage its population to get an economy that can do so? Depends on how retarded the ccp stays. Personally I think India or Kazakhstan have a bigger chance, China is just functioning as convenient boogyman for us politics and elite for now

[Anonymous No.53384245]

US is already next gen post-nation-state, these primitive geopolitical theories are meaningless now. the singularity approaches

[Anonymous No.53384345]

>>53383462
China's truly a paper tiger
Saudis have money, a homogenous religious culture, and a shit tonne of oil
US is in such a weird position and I have no idea what it's future will bring

[Anonymous No.53384657]

>>53383462
>>53383706
>>53384154
>hello sirs. Today India's population has just surpassed China's population and we are now the number 1 superpower.