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/biz/ - Business & Finance

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53193883 No.53193883 [Reply] [Original]

Is this the pivot pump or just a CPI number release (12th january) pump?

I'm not a bear chud but pic related kinda worries me. If we stuck at 5.7% inflation we might see additional rate increases

>> No.53193898

>>53193883
Fed already said they're committing to LONG and HARD rate hikes. only delusional retards think they're going to back down early.

>> No.53193926

>>53193898
They said the terminal rate is 0.75% away. That's one hike at the rate they've been going retard

>> No.53193992

>>53193926
Yeah and they're going to hold it there until the economy feels pain. Reaching a terminal rate and holding it there for a year is not a pivot. Bull delusion is unreal

>> No.53194021

>>53193898
It is the feds job to make everyone as poor as possible.
They have to pivot eventually. When they do, do you really think they'll give any warning to the public.

>> No.53194137

>>53193992
it's probably for geopolitical reasons, too. got to hinder the world economy as you're stacking gold using puppet states like israel and ukraine

>> No.53195282

>>53193883
Recession is already ramping up, once it becomes publicly-accepted knowledge then CPI will get rekt. The fed WILL pivot.

Look at the peak yield curse inversion over the last few months, it is creeping closer and closer to shorter term dates. In October it was at the 2y and now it's at the 6 month.

>> No.53195347

>>53193883
Have you seen the price of eggs?

>> No.53195690

>>53195347
no i have a chicken farm in my living room

>> No.53195881

>>53195282
>2y
>6 mos
what does all this mean? rates coming down this year?

>> No.53195906

>>53195881
If a treasury bill with a 1 year maturity is giving a lower yield than a shorter term maturity, or even fed funds, it's because the market is pricing in rate cuts on the short end. Imagine if tomorrows the fed cut rates to 0%, your 1 year t-bill still gives the reward upon maturity so it's vastly superior to a bank account in that case. If the fed doesn't cut rates at all then you might as well keep your funds liquid in shorter term maturities. The market is pricing in rate cuts based on the shape and slope of the yield curve. There are more nuances but this is the gist.

>> No.53195945

>>53195906
You’re coping really hard lmao. We’re not seeing a pivot until end of 2024

>> No.53196001

>>53195282
>recession
your shitcoins and stocks crashing does not mean recession, we're still massively overvalued and the fed can't do shit to stop the dump. we barely corrected

>> No.53196024

>>53196001
I don't disagree, you seem to think that the only indicators of recession are asset prices, when I'm looking at literally everything else (payroll, manufacturer imports, etc.)

>> No.53196062

>>53195906
thanks anon
what is your prediction on rate cuts this year? How much do you think the feds will cut in 2023?

>> No.53196086

>>53193883
Bullshit number, it's at least 9%.

>> No.53196133

>>53196062
They will probably raise rates as planned to ~5-5.25%, before reversing after a few months. Assuming there aren't any big surprises or black swans I'd expect rates EOY to be similar to now, maybe a little lower.

>> No.53196139
File: 1.31 MB, 200x267, Peng-Protocol_By-GenericMage1127_Peng-Glass.gif [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
53196139

Peng!

>> No.53196320

>>53195282
>Look at the peak yield curse inversion over the last few months
doesnt this mean a massive crash in stocks is approaching
usually when the inversion goes back up is when the crash is imminent

>> No.53198844
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53198844

>>53193926
There will be several less hikes in 2023, unlikely one hike.

>> No.53198873

>>53193883
>I'm not a bear chud but pic related kinda worries me. If we stuck at 5.7% inflation we might see additional rate increases
There is no sense in a rate more than inflation, so 5-5.5% is the ceiling.

>> No.53198966
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53198966

Inflation is going back up because of fuel costs, Biden drained the SPR for the elections, now the Republican congress is in control, the government will start buying oil again, raising the a large portion of CPI. Then he can blame inflation on Republicans in congress and we can keep the same cycle going 5ever.

70s inflation rose sharply, dropped, then mooned once everyone thought it was over.

>> No.53199042

>>53198966
>This is just like le heckin 1970s
They weren't printing trillions of dollars to fuel proxy wars back then, nor did Chins exist as a economic super power

>> No.53199084

>>53199042
And the US wasn't 59% white and didn't have the level of national debt we have now. In addition to what you said. The point being, the dollar is completely fucked even if they raised rates like they did in the 70s.

>> No.53199173

>>53199084
>Welcome to 21st century economics 101
Every economy in the world runs on debt. Even if you have zero debt you have a form of debt, whether rent, etc. Yes even if you own a home goyim, heard of taxes?
They will never pay off debt, the point is to keep the train moving for as long as possible, that's why they will inevitably print more money, why they will print the dollar to zero. Now go doompost somewhere else faggot

>> No.53199194
File: 28 KB, 386x439, images - 2023-01-07T230604.248.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
53199194

>>53193883
Its china opening up
Lol do you faggots even read the news

>> No.53199248
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53199248

>>53199084
>global reserve currency is fucked
Holy shit cryptotards are absolutely fucked in the head.

>> No.53199287

>>53199194
yes but does that mean more rate hikes in the usa or does powell throw in the towel
i mean this is pretty much worst possible scenario here, china prints money out of thin air so it can buy up all of the assets in the row that is being devastated by the feds actions

>> No.53199304

the next 3 months are unironically CRITICAL for inflation levels...
I think we will see general earnings collapse leading to lower inflation due to tight financial conditions. maybe even an unexpected 50 bps hike in february if they rig the CPI higher to justify a policy shift

however if we don't... 4% rates will absolutely not stop 6% inflation, money supply is still way too high.

its really not easy to make predictions because it all depends on what the fed does. If they come out soon and say they're reinvesting bonds or MBS, etc etc etc.... everything can turn around on a dime.

>> No.53199305

>>53193992
None of that is new info. Well to biz it prob is. But its all priced in. Anything that deviates from this would move prices accordingly

>> No.53199365

>>53193883
>truflation
What retard felt we didnt have enough fake inflation measurements?

>> No.53199583

>>53199304
>general earnings collapse
thats probably not a good thing for our portfolios tho
would be the best thing to turn this bear around fastest tho

>> No.53199639

>>53199304
Nothing ever happens. Calm down buddy.

>> No.53199940

>>53199287
>>53199194
I think we don't know what the effect will be at this point in time. There are arguments to both sides from the reopening of China:
>Inflation
China will buy shit.
>Deflation
China will produce shit too which will ease up supply chain bottlenecks which is a big piece of increasing costs. Also, if China prints RMB or whatever to purchase stuff that will lead to a stronger dollar against the RMB... so the purchasing power of a dollar will surge especially if China eases supply chain logistics. So I'm really not sure overall what will happen...

>>53198966
There are some similarities to the Great Inflation of the 1970s but as always history rhymes but does not repeat:
>https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/09/1970s-great-inflation.asp
So the similarities are we had double digit inflation at 10-12% for a spell. We have oil price shocks. We have geopolitical unrest like war in Ukraine and Russia fucking with Europe's oil supply. We had easy money during the COVID pandemic... M1 and M2 measures of the money supply increased by pretty big amount.

But there are important differences. JPOW is on the case early by raising interest rates very quickly from 0% to what 4.25% now? That's really fast and inflation has shown some early signs of cooling off. M2 has stopped increasing and actually started decreasing marginally... which is a good sign. Unemployment is higher than government estimates but it isn't at double digit levels just yet. Corporations are freezing hiring and laying off people in some sectors but it's not like it was in the 70s yet.

The other important difference is the rapid advancement of technology during COVID and just in general. The 70s didn't have that. AI, 3D printing and manufacturing, Web3.0... there are a lot of things happening that weren't really there in the 70s.

Sooo i don't know what will happen... but if I had to guess I think there will be a relatively short recession followed by deflation due to technology.

>> No.53199994

>>53199940
So here is a Fed chart of M1 and M2. You can see that M2 was increasing the entire time but looks like it has plateaued and is already at levels back in 2021.
>https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/current/default.htm