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2023-11: Warosu is now out of extended maintenance.

/biz/ - Business & Finance


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>> No.52921450

If we have another red Monday I'm gonna be living in my car by Friday

>> No.52921456
File: 172 KB, 586x567, 1668237634228351.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52921456

>Somali&Pirate 500

>> No.52921460
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52921460

>>52921450
Nooo Santa rally is gonna happen we just all need to believe

>> No.52921466
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52921466

>>52921450
>>52921460
We've been very good

>> No.52921487

>>52921442
How are these stupid bulb headed niggers even good at pirating? Fucking western cucks just give everything up because they know it’s all insured or something.

>> No.52921496

Is now a good time for a flight to safety in TLT and possibly UUP and other inverse stocks? I don't have a good feeling for this week. Something tells me there is more downward crabbing to violent dumping ahead.

>> No.52921506

>>52921487
You're not allowed arms on merchant vessels, it's why ZIM is registered as a part of Israel's something or other and they keep guns

>> No.52921604
File: 64 KB, 743x539, sss.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52921604

>>52921442
We're seeing many companies like Lloyds, JP Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, etc, all projecting 2023 recessions given the increases in interest rates heavily slowing company growth as borrowing new debts becomes more expensive and existing borrowers go underwater as their tiny interest rates are doubled or even tripled, especially mortgages rates, with some mortgage products having default rates within the first 6 months already rising 150% (2.5x) according to US HA.

Yield curve has already inverted as bond investors try to secure long term stability, unemployment has bottomed out and is reversing as companies cut excess spending, interest rates were risen again in the US just yesterday, etc. It is barely speculation anymore to assume a recession through the next 18 months or so.

I understand the idea of raising interest rates to reduce buying power to combat inflation rates, it makes complete sense. The only thing I don't understand, to allow me to know when to re-enter a broad market index fund, is how recessions are resolved.

Is it just as straight forward as lowering interest rates again when inflation becomes manageable, to allow consumers and businesses to start leveraging and consuming again? Businesses will start laying off employees, consumers will have less discretionary spending, leading to less consumer demand, leading to less company revenue, leading to lower salaries, leading again to less discretionary spending, in a feedback loop.

I'm young so I don't understand, but given recessions seems like they would cause a feedback loop, what stops economies from collapsing entirely. What/where/when is the turning point in a recession, or is it just the eventual reduction in interest rates?

>> No.52921618

>>52921604
based insight

>> No.52921673

>>52921604
Yeah, you are correct in your assumptions, there is an entire economic field around this but basically: refusing to spend will just bankrupt companies, so instead of a short recession you end up in a depression. This is something economists should have been thought in uni, it was practiced during the depression under Roosevelt. It's too bad the FED is completely inept.

>> No.52921690

>>52921673
So are you saying this time won't be different and they are going to do the same mistakes that led to the last depression?

>> No.52921701

>>52921690
Yes, it's an endless loopity loop, and we aren't coming off until someone pulls the emergency stop

>> No.52921735

>>52921701
What even is that emergency stop? Isn't any hard handed solution to this bound to cause either a completely crash/depression or cause a liquidity crisis?

>> No.52921816

Explain why the fuck you think the market will go back to the COVID lows and why there won't be a melt up when the Fed needs to print everyone out of a recession/depression?

>> No.52921836 [DELETED] 
File: 190 KB, 784x1498, FLZH-QlVQAI8wiy Pyra.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52921836

>>52921816
I don't really believe in covid lows personally, but I wouldn't be surprised of we go back to levels moments before the covid (3200 or 3300 if I remember right).
Well, whatever happens, I just continue to buy monthly anyway.

>> No.52921878

>>52921604
An Austrian economist would say not to look for the problem in the recession, but the boom that preceded it. The artificially low interest rates and monetary expansion experienced for the past couple decades have created a huge bubble of nonproductive companies and overly-indebted individuals, companies, and governments. The problem was the expansion that preceded the crash, and the crash is the painful cure that clears those malinvestment from the economy. You have to let the recession run its course and wipe out the malinvestment to make real investment possible again. Unfortunately, that is a very painful process and nobody in charge wants to let it happen because they would take the blame, so the typical response is to cut interest rates again and ease monetary conditions and provide fiscal stimulus so the malinvestments don't get wiped out and people dont lose their jobs so the party can keep going on. This only makes the problems worse and guarantees the next crash will be bigger than the previous. Eventually there will be a point where you can't mask over the unproductive economy with more money. Are we there now? Nobody knows.

>> No.52921943
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52921943

>>52921878
For sure, home buyers are overleveraged through low down payments on mortgages, businesses have far too much access to cheap lines of capital
leading to inflation as anyone is able to afford anything, especially after stimulus. The upcoming recession is more than necessary, and a great investment opportunity long-term.

My worry is the massive M0 monetary base increase, which may lead to a recession without actually crashing the stock markets raw valuations per-say, trying to understand when to buy in, likely around Q3 or Q4 of 2023. I'm not yet knowledgeable enough to identify when the coming market downturn will reverse, nor if we should expect a recession or depression is the issue.

>> No.52921976
File: 47 KB, 148x514, Holdings - Till I Die.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52921976

Who would've thought that 2021 was the year you had it easy (even with covid). Money flowing in like crack (free govt money, raises at work), Paid "vacation" (They paid me to work from home for over 1 year), goods still cheap as hell. Sigh as bad as it was, I kinda miss it.

>> No.52922003

>>52921943
Long as they keep jacking it or leaving it alone for the next decade, my savings account interest rate that is, I don't give a damn. Currently pays out 3.30% and I'm stuffing it like crazy.

>> No.52922021

>>52922003
Real inflation at 15% and all policies point to even more inflation for decades to go (shorter supply chains, "clean" energy etc.), yet you choose 3% return

>> No.52922032

>>52921878
Why did these fancy new financial instruments emerge in the late 70s anon? Nobody talks about it seriously. The big short references this. They mention the introduction of mortgage backed securities in 1977 and how it precipitated the 2008 collapse. Nothing else. Where can I learn about the history. You are almost led to believe that boomers weren't trading futures or options pre-1977 because computers weren't fast enough.

>> No.52922069

>>52921976
it's coming back soon don't worry

>> No.52922071

>>52922003
3.30% is nothing though. You're likely only keeping up with total inflation. Compared to the historic returns of a broad market index fund like the SnP500 at around 10%, or even government backed bonds at around 4.25% coupon rate (interest) currently, this is not a good rate.

>> No.52922081

>>52922032
I could only guess that it was influenced by computers making it feasible or some event in 1971 that changed all kinds of things throughout the economy.

>> No.52922131

>>52922071
Kek, which is why I'm also stuffing my 401k and brokerage to. Hey, if I can do it all why not?

>> No.52922135
File: 802 KB, 704x704, 1671368084289498.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52922135

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202212/1281724.shtml
>By any standard, it is generally expected by the market that the Fed is unlikely to stop raising rates until the second half of next year.

>This also means that liquidity pressure will continue to rise in coming months.
>In this sense, the Blackstone run has actually sent an early signal of a potential liquidity crunch, raising red flags for financial market players.
>This is because against the backdrop of tight liquidity, it will be more often to see investor withdrawals cause runs on various financial institutions, which may even lead to a systemic crisis across financial markets.

>What has happened to Blackstone is a sign that the Federal Reserve's policies are already hitting global financial markets, and that any loophole could cause the entire levee to collapse. Blackstone sounded the alarm.
>And we must keep a close watch, while strengthening China's levees to prepare for the next financial storm triggered by the US, especially to prevent the Fed from exporting the crisis.

IF IT KEEPS ON RAINING THE LEVEES GONNA BREAK
IF IT KEEPS ON RAINING THE LEVEES GONNA BREAK
ITS GOT WHAT IT TAKES TO MAKE A MOUNTAIN MAN LEAVE HIS HOME
OH WELL OH WELL

>> No.52922151
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52922151

>>52921735
>Isn't any hard handed solution to this bound to cause either a completely crash/depression or cause a liquidity crisis?
Yes. And that's a good thing.

>> No.52922168
File: 21 KB, 400x400, Smoking Tophat Tuxedo Pepe.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52922168

>>52922135
>Chinks now have to obsessively fret over *our* obscure real estate funds.
This is for that Evergrande bullshit.

>> No.52922172

>>52922151
based and mellonpilled

>> No.52922216

>>52922135
Blackstone got fucked because investors called bullshit on their property values. They said their property fund was up 2% ytd so the redemptions rolled in at peak treasury yield months back.

>> No.52922227

>>52922071
S&p 10%-15% for last decade was under QE conditions. But it can get wilder.

>> No.52922233
File: 273 KB, 1170x1551, B03E2BAE-3A1A-443E-BEBB-89DEACAE29BF.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52922233

Am I gonna make it biz? If I keep this pace I’ll retire in 6 months

>> No.52922262

>>52921816
Hows Chins rate cuts working for their economy?

>> No.52922266
File: 77 KB, 1491x819, dxyy.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52922266

Who here likes schizo multidecade TA?

>inflation crisis of the 80s started with DXY rallying to 115 (yellow dotted line)
>then crashed to 103 (2nd yellow dotted line)
>DXY followed this exact path this year

>DXY 103 has proven to be absurdly strong resistance over the years since the 80s (yellow arrows)
>charting 101: strong resistance = strong support
>you can even see this with DXY retesting 115 in the 80s (top most yellow arrow)
What does this mean? DXY has a very big probability of bouncing off 103ish. And as of last week, DXY wicked off 103.50 and shot directly back up. This along side some rough economic data is why stocks took a huge shit last week. We're not even at 105 yet, if we follow DXY in the 80's and retest 115 again in the next few months we'll not just see stocks make new lows, we'll start seeing credit events take place as leverage is forced to be flushed out of the system. Maybe not as drastic as 08 but the yield curve thinks it'll be worse so who the fuck knows?

>> No.52922278

>>52921487
They are not that stupid actually.

>> No.52922283

>>52922233
That's why we call compound investing the 8th wonder of the world

>> No.52922297

>>52922283
I sat here thinking about buying spy 394 puts on jpow day. If had they would have gone up 2500% and wiped away ytd losses.

>> No.52922298

>>52921816
>the fed will pump my bags
>even though the reason they are bags is because of the fed

>> No.52922301

>>52922233
this reminds me of the anon who kept posting that he was a genius and we were all retarded for daytrading options, haven't seen him around. my advice is to stop while you're ahead and let the euphoria clear before trading again

>> No.52922303

>>52921442
>>52919989 #
I have no rent nor do I want one. I just need a steady inflow of money to become a hermit to complete what I started. I started internship and I'll be getting 40k total for the 2 years this lasts. I was planning on opening a business and chuck in money into s&p500 to not have to work in medical field ever again.

What tips or counsel can you give me, bro.

>> No.52922308
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52922308

>>52922233
>If I keep this pace I’ll retire in 6 months

>> No.52922315

>>52922308
yeah 320k would probably not be enough

>> No.52922319

>>52922303
Starting businesses are usually bad unless you have some product edge. However, they do offer some financial benefits that you can farm with an accountant.

>> No.52922330

>>52922081
That and ditching the gold standard

>> No.52922342

>>52921604
I like your post anon.
They only thing I didn't see you mention - though you were about to touch on it - is how speculative growth companies get pruned and go bankrupt as interest rates increase. This means once interest rates start to go back down, new companies have room to grow in a less crowded market.

>> No.52922343
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52922343

Wtf is this santa rally meme? Do people just think they deserve gains because it's Christmas?

>> No.52922348

>>52922315
haha y-yeah

>has 143k and slowly plummeting

>> No.52922357

brrruuuuh.

>> No.52922365

>>52922319
Im planning on a food business because that's what gives money in the country i live in (third world). But i need good tutelage for stock exchange, i need to make it to go full monk mode without actually going into a monastery... You can reach the top level of awakening at home anyway. After these two years of medical internship i never want to return to a hospital

>> No.52922462
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52922462

I can't buy any stocks today

>> No.52922506
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52922506

I'm not losing any money today

>> No.52922520

Why isn't the stock market 24/7?
Isn't everything automated nowadays anyway?
Jews can only insider trade during weekdays?

>> No.52922537

>>52921460
>I had to use the wooden door

>> No.52922569

>>52922520
Of course they can, after market trades make the MOST volume

>> No.52922577
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52922577

Good morning. Sunday morning.

>> No.52922590

>>52922342
This is also why spec stocks moon when we start coming out of it.

Finding spec stocks with ample confirmed runway who can weather the recession, and buying them near their low. This is how normal people can get stupidly rich from recessions.

>> No.52922596 [DELETED] 

N

>> No.52922598 [DELETED] 

>>52922596
MODS

>> No.52922612

>>52922590
The fuck is a spec stock

>>52922577
Good morning ser and beautiful dubs to wake up with!

>> No.52922630
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52922630

>>52921442
SPY needs to pump tomorrow! Fuck all this pussy shit. Market dumps for 5 days straight, and media in-sync starts talking about a terrible recession we’ve been in for 1 year already and retail Goyim gobbles it up. We’re going to retest 390 next weeks boys.
https://youtube.com/shorts/SByTrYDdE38?feature=share

>> No.52922667

>>52922630
>Market dumps for 5 days straight
Anon the market has been dumping for 12 months straight. Another 5 days is nothing to this bear market. Whose to say another several weeks of dumping won't happen too.

>> No.52922680

>>52922303
Buy VOO if you want to invest in the stock market but don’t want to waste time picking stocks.

>> No.52922706
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52922706

>>52922301
But I have a lot of catching up to do

>> No.52922709
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52922709

>>52922667
I’m a swing trader, at $390 I’ll be bobo posting all the way down to $370.

>> No.52922725 [DELETED] 
File: 811 KB, 360x640, demographic collapse.webm [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52922725

So, I was reading the comment section of this video that was posted in an earlier thread:
>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BoqjKqt__tI

And, holy fucking shit. Absolutely filled with seething females talking about how great it is to not be mothers, how they're perfectly happy and fulfilled and fuck you for suggesting otherwise. How do I short humanity? Demographic collapse is coming for us all and no one even seems to care. Hell, they're celebrating it!

We're literally going extinct. Just read that comment section, holy fucking shit. We are going extinct. No more children. Like, every fucking comment is like this, it's unreal.

>> No.52922742 [DELETED] 
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52922742

to the person that said i needed "serious mental help"

I cannot help that I fell for perfection . i cannot help that every day I wish i could feel her soft fur , pet her cute head and kiss her sweet young lips . i cannot help that have written volumes of taking her every first. i cannot help imagining being with her every day . i cannot help that I fantasize about squeezing her little paw as we walk down the street together, ducking into allies and expressing our passion for the other. i love marina datillo and I will not be shamed for it. buncun for life! i will not be shamed for trying to capture her perfection and show others what brings me joy. In short, to the man that said i needed serious help, fuck you, find your own happiness. Maybe you'll be as satisfied as I am one day. Maybe you will find a smile that sparks joy in your life that you never want to see fade.

https://youtu.be/CvFH_6DNRCY

>> No.52922757
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52922757

>>52922725
whenever I'm happy I also make a video to prove it

>> No.52922758

>>52922680
Yeah, my idea was to invest in VOO and snp500. What about black rock? City bank? What about government bonds, how do I buy those? Thanks for the advice brother

>> No.52922769

>>52922725
Well to be honest would you like to bring kids up in this world now where "it's ok to be an "it" person? (trans)" and parents are fine teaching their kids "hey this type of thing is perfectly normal". Fuck that. God I miss the 80s/90s so bad. Even the early 00s weren't terrible.Now its a big shat show.

>> No.52922786
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52922786

>>52921442
>invest in shipping companies
>invest in somali pirates to hedge against the risk
damn

>> No.52922794

>>52922725
So I spend a lot of time on /tv/ and one of my things is I'll look up every actress I see on Wikipedia and look at her age and how many children she has. A lot of them don't have kids until their mid-to-late 30s. Kind of sucks for them that their parents will be already old when they're in high school though. My mom and dad were 23 and 25 and I remember playing sports with them growing up because they were still youngish enough.

>> No.52922800

>>52922291
If you migrated, and want $600/mo, that's $7,200/yr using the 4% withdrawal rule (which you shouldn't because that will only last you 30 years) you'd need $180k to pull out $600/mo, and adjust it up for inflation each year. As for what to put it in, or how to get to a 180,000 portfolio. If you are only going to make $80k in a two year period, then you can't do it without some crazy speculation. The Boglehead method won't help you.

>> No.52922816
File: 476 KB, 1018x6344, bz9c9jimduv01.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52922816

>>52922725
It is inevitable by now.

>> No.52922817

>>52922725
Dont worry the amish will inherit the earth

>> No.52922844 [DELETED] 
File: 347 KB, 2500x1800, Marinadress5.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52922844

to the person that said i needed "serious mental help"

I cannot help that I fell for perfection . i cannot help that every day I wish i could feel her soft fur , pet her cute head and kiss her sweet young lips . i cannot help that have written volumes of taking her every first. i cannot help imagining being with her every day . i cannot help that I fantasize about squeezing her little paw as we walk down the street together, ducking into allies and expressing our passion for the other. i love marina datillo and I will not be shamed for it. buncun for life! i will not be shamed for trying to capture her perfection and show others what brings me joy. In short, to the man that said i needed serious help, fuck you, find your own happiness. Maybe you'll be as satisfied as I am one day. Maybe you will find a smile that sparks joy in your life that you never want to see fade.

https://youtu.be/CvFH_6DNRCY [Open]

I forgot the jannie whittles away precious time here he could be using on his hobby. Oh wait, this is his hobby LOL.

WHAT A PATHETIC FAGGOT
https://youtu.be/kPk9c0UK0Fg

>> No.52922861

>>52922844
based mods with the instant delete
what being born without a father figure does to someone

>> No.52922862

>>52922817
Don't joke about that, anon. I've been seriously considering joining the Amish at some point. Leaving this crazy clown world behind. Maybe it'd be worth giving up modern life and technology for.

>> No.52922863

>>52922800
:( It's not 80k, I'll be getting 40k tops for these two years of absolute slave labor. Speculations you mean day treading right?

>> No.52922872

>>52921604
It's not an instant thing, but when interest rates start dropping, that's when the economy, and equitys start gaining ground. And raising rates/QT is when I should have been #cashgang.
#don'tfightthefed

>> No.52922874

>>52922872
ill say this, everyone fear mongered rising interests rates
shit is almost quadrupled and the world hasn't collapsed

>> No.52922876

Has anybody ever invested in personal loans before?
>>52922773

>> No.52922880

>>52922876
sounds like a good way to get screwed over
just get a mortgage reit

>> No.52922893

>>52922880
I get that the risk is high but the rewards are sweet. They rate their borrowers and provide information about their credit history and rate them from low to high risk.

>> No.52922899
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52922899

I read somewhere that jepi doesn't sell covered calls, that they actually use etns to generate the dividend. And this is riskier than a cc because in a severe crash they could hold etns that lose all value if the entity(s) that issued them become insolvent. Is this real? The reason to buy jepi is for safety but if it underperforms and is less safe than a regular index fund then why bother

>> No.52922921
File: 76 KB, 651x960, Lael-Brainard-1.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52922921

THREAD THEME
https://youtu.be/gM4xZy39kNE

>> No.52922949

>>52922899
check out RYLD

>> No.52922950

>>52922863
Yeah, I mean day trading, options, things that you will mess up, and loose everything and have to put in more money and start over, at least twice before you figure out risk, and how to make money. It's not my type of investing, but lots of smgers have it figured out, and lots of them have lost more than you need to live the rest of your life, good luck Anon

>> No.52922957

Now is not the time to go short. They are expecting retail to do this so we are going to get a pump tomorrow and possibly the rest of this year

>> No.52922961 [DELETED] 

>>52922861
Hi jannie

My dad was around unlike yours LOL

>> No.52922974

>>52922876
I dunno about that but I took out a personal loan before rates went sky high to bag KO stock with it. Very good terms. 2026 loan will be paid off so meh.

>> No.52922997

>>52922874
Wait for it. My girlfriend is a mortgage processor, they fight over new loans. And half the times the customers withdraw their loan application. I worry about her job. The company I work for went from 500M in debt to 800M. The change in interest alone will be over 2M/mo. I don't know how much of that debt is adjusting rates every year. But know that none of it is 30 year fixed, that kind of debt only exists in primary home mortgages. The ride is just getting going. But everyone is getting raises, because we can't afford to loose anyone...yet.

>> No.52922998

>>52922950
Thanks a lot brother. Day trading isn't for me, because i will lose and if I lose i have to return to work in the hospital. Have a good day, and may you have an excellent week

>> No.52923000
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52923000

>>52922957
im not smart enough to fuck around with fundamentals that change every week. i just buy AMD incrementally and wait. even if it takes me a couple of years to double my money, even 5 years let's say, that's still beating the S&P by plenty. i have a great recession-proof job and still live with my parents who also make good money, i can wait. mostly just feel bad for others who don't have it as good as i do, im very thankful for my circumstances.

>> No.52923010
File: 50 KB, 400x300, 1656347770119.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52923010

LETS TURN DIS BISH UP A FEW NOTCHES
https://youtu.be/NU_mjNreeiI

>> No.52923017

>>52922876
Yeah, I use prosper. It's kinda like owning bonds, but more stable.

>> No.52923033

>>52922998
You too Anon! Are you American? What do you do at the hospital (what's your job title)?

>> No.52923038

>>52921460
kek

>> No.52923045
File: 553 KB, 701x1000, Lionel_Messi_20180626.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52923045

What's the Lionel Messi of stocks?

>> No.52923048

>>52922131
>Hey, if I can do it all why not?
This mentality is why people stay poor. Hard for me to comprehend someone choosing to actively shift money into a separate account to collect 3.3% when you could instead buy treasuries, even as short as 3 month, at a tax advantaged 4.3%.

>> No.52923056

2023 is looking to be another good year; State income tax goes down (so less tax withholding getting sucked from my check;check goes up), Auto insurance rate went down (so auto ins bill will be lower), and in July I'm looking to get a 6 - 12% pay bump.

>> No.52923070

>>52923056
And how are the kids doing this Holiday season KO boomer?

>> No.52923079

>>52923048
Well when "shat happens" would you rather pull money from an account as you need it or would you rather pay for it via a credit card and get shafted by the higher interest rate? Least with the account that money is paying me something while it's sitting there.

>> No.52923081

>>52923045
Maybe MNST

>> No.52923090

>>52922590
What do you mean by spec stock

>> No.52923091
File: 568 KB, 808x1684, top40.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52923091

>>52923045
I think we could all (perhaps reluctantly) agree that if he was a stock, it would be one in the top 40 market caps - but it would be a stretch to say top 10 market cap
the stock / company also needs to be a respectable company that has a good track record - but one that is overhyped and has an obnoxious investor fan base
I think he would be a tech company rather than a bluechip, but he's also older now, so it wouldn't be a newer tech company
so based around all of these parameters, I will say
either
>NVDA
>META

>> No.52923102

>>52923091
I was going to say AAPL. The GOAT.

>> No.52923115

>>52922725
Chris Williamson is based, his podcast modern wisdom this clip is from is genuinely really good. Has a ton of quality guests on

>> No.52923117

>>52923070
Kek we don't have any. But between her siblings and mine the family line isn't dying one bit. More like it keeps expanding. Just last month my brother and his girl got engaged. My sister is already married. Wife's sisters are already married with kids.Her brother is kinda another story though.

>> No.52923237

>>52923079
Credit cards don't owe interest for 30-60 days after purchase. Any other big, sudden bill will likely have similar terms. You're generally not expected to pull shitloads of money out of thin air. You owe no interest if you pay the bill when it's due, which means the total delay from purchase to payment depends on when in the statement cycle you make a purchase.
When I say to buy 3M treasuries, it doesn't mean you have to deposit your entire stash into one single auction. That would be silly. Stagger them. You can roll those treasuries every week, and easily pull 10% on demand instead of rolling. In a one month timeframe you can pull back 1/3rd of them.
If you absolutely need more for a real emergency, you can just sell the treasuries back on the market, and you'll have almost certainly made money because there's no real duration risk on such short term treasuries. Rate hike expectations only vary 0.25%, and at such short term there's only one FOMC between purchase and maturity.

When you put your money in the bank in a savings account at 3.3%, what's really going on behind the scenes is that the bank is buying treasures for you at 4.3%, then they're keeping the extra 1% for themselves and laughing at you the whole time.
It's pure laziness to use a bank for anything other than immediate checking balance. I do recommend keeping the equivalent of 1 month's standard expenses in a checking account, because it's a hassle to shift money back and forth that frequently to save like 5k. Annual interest on 5k is about 200 bucks, so you can decide whether that's worth it.

But you do you. I don't really care if you change your ways. Just know that you're only ripping yourself off. It's the mentality of a poor person.

>> No.52923296

>>52922758
VOO is the S&P silly, it’s a Vanguard fund that tracks it. if you want to invest in banks I’d look at JPM

>> No.52923326

>>52923033
Thanks brother. I studied medicine so I'm a medical intern. No, I'm not American sadly. I'm from Panamá so it's very difficult to get into stocks because of the money laundering stuff.

>> No.52923340

>>52923296
Thanks brother. I will look into JPM when I can make a deposit into interactive brokers. I just started to work so it'll take some months before I get my first paycheck.

>> No.52923343

>>52923296
https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/is-jpmorgan-chase-insolvent

>> No.52923350 [DELETED] 
File: 127 KB, 640x1138, 03F49791-B6E8-4B81-B051-0C80D572E846.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52923350

Went to a Christmas party with my gf and some of her coworkers are so hot bros. They are lesbians though but god damn. Black hair and pale is my weakness

>> No.52923360

>>52923237
How can I invest in treasury bonds?

>> No.52923361

>>52923296
>>52923340
TD is better

>> No.52923367

>>52921442
Do you guys decorate for Christmas?

>> No.52923374

>>52923367
Yep

>> No.52923380

why don't american companies pay dividends for people that hold their stock?
literally none of the popular tech companies do it. if i buy local stock they do pay so its not just pure gambling praying that the value somehow goes up

>> No.52923385

>>52923360
If you want actual Tbills
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/marketable-securities/treasury-bills/
If you just want to buy treasury etfs there are tons of them on exchanges.
TLT IEF SHY are some from Ishares

>> No.52923395

>>52923361
Thanks for the tip. I don't know if I should invest in medical industry, what with all the backlash and general hate for it. What about food inclined stocks? Those will never go down

>> No.52923413

>>52923385
Explain to me something, since I'm a noob. When I invest, they pay you back on interests after 6 months right? If the market is stable I presume. Thanks btw for the pointing out of these ETFs, I'm guessing they're in interactive broker since it's the only broker i can use in this country.

>> No.52923426

>>52923380
if you aren't growing, then you aren't hot, if you are growing, you should be redirecting funds into growing bigger instead of paying dividends.

This is why you see retarded shit like multibillion dollar evaluations for companies that are taking on more debt and losses every year but aggressively growing their revenue.

>> No.52923429

>>52923395
Look at GIS or K
PEP is also a great consumer defensive

>> No.52923447

>>52923429
Thanks a bunch my brother. I will definitely look into general Mills.

>> No.52923475

>>52923413
They pay you the annualized interest. As in if you have a 6 month t~bill at 4% you get essentially half a years worth of 4% annualized not the whole 4%

>> No.52923512

>>52923367
Kinda. We put up a tree and hang a wreath on the door. Others in the neighborhood go all out, yard decorations, house decorations,etc.

>> No.52923515

>automakers need child labour to be competetive
>still runs at massive losses
Lol

>> No.52923516

>>52923475
I understand now. Thanks for taking the time to explain it to me.

>> No.52923527

>>52923426
i guess that makes sense to some point but aren't companies like apple mostly just sitting on their money?
personally would rather take stable profit in form of dividends than high risk growth investments

>> No.52923537

>>52923380
Management almost always likes buybacks over dividends, but shareholders usually don't. Tech investors are cucks.

>> No.52923543

>>52923527
What are the best dividends to invest in? Something stable

>> No.52923565

>>52922506
You're not losing money yet

>> No.52923569

>>52923543
probably things that people need. grocery store chains etc

>> No.52923575

>>52923527
Buybacks are more effecient for investors long term but it provides uncertainity. Buybacks reduce the float making your shares more valuable. A dividend is an incentive that creates a taxable event but can be somewhat more regular.

>> No.52923577

>>52923569
What about gold ETFs, what do you say about those? Clothes?

>> No.52923615
File: 11 KB, 295x166, 758334312-1b11efc02c9b56e50535f9768ac6361bac506ae5f3ced5ac3bcae66002b82104-d_295x166.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52923615

Biz not talking about MULN?

big short squeeze potential if there is slightly any upward pressure

50% of all shares are short

>> No.52923624

>>52923527
Apple does pay dividends, albeit small ones relative to their share price. Their cash tells you that they are going to still be in business tomorrow and that if they were to liquidate themselves the bondholders wouldn't take everything. They are also in the tech business which is fairly infamous for the people on top suddenly falling behind (think IBM, Blackberry, and Intel) so having cash on hand is a kind of extra security.

Remember that the underlying cash holdings also support the share price because theoretically, a share is a piece of the business.

>> No.52923635

>>52923615
Because EV is a scam and it was amazon trying to invest in anything to seek yield at low rates.

>> No.52923642

>>52923624
Apple has a history of taking on debt to generate buybacks. They just generally dont tap fcf, instead holding that as defensive. Kinda curious what nvda did with their 20 billion in cash from the year start

>> No.52923654

>>52923642
NVDA already burned through 33% of their cash on hand in a quarter.

>> No.52923672

/smg/ we should start an arms company
I hear there's money in that

>> No.52923688
File: 284 KB, 2987x1274, prospect of thermonuclear war.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52923688

>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3K25VPdbAjU

give it to me straight anons: how fucked are we? or will we be reaching utopia? do you have hope for the future? and if not (i know /smg/ is pretty bearish and depressed right now), why do you get up every day and continue living? if things are only gonna get shittier forever, i mean?

>> No.52923699

>>52923672
would we make and sell smg's?

>> No.52923716
File: 228 KB, 512x504, 1654554296896.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52923716

>>52923699
Yes

>> No.52923836
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52923836

>>52923374
>>52923512
You're both bigots

>> No.52923852

>>52923836
>we must demand better for ourselves
guaranteed written by a jew

>> No.52923868

wtf was that

>> No.52923871

>>52923836
>I couldn't help but notice your Christmas lights display. During these unprecedented times we have all experienced challenges which casual words just don't describe what we're feeling. The idea of twinkling, colorful lights

Awwww, how sweet and wholesome!

>The idea of twinkling, colorful lights are a reminder of divisions that continue to run through our society, a reminder of systemic biases...

God fucking dammit.

>> No.52923894

santa rally

>> No.52923912

>>52923836
Lol as an mn resident I’m not even surprised this happened in MN. So many liberal retards in the metro

>> No.52923918
File: 1.51 MB, 1189x890, soft landing JPow.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52923918

>>52923894
JPow says Santa needs to lose his job so we have a soft landing, so Christmas is canceled.

>> No.52923926

>>52923836
Sounds like its time to set up a shrine bah and sacrifice some children on the stone alter. Their children.

>> No.52923929

>>52923836
I also find it funny that the town name is St. Anthony. Imagine complaining about Ramadan in Islamabad

>> No.52923996

any1 have wc stream? Mine died

>> No.52924035

>>52923996
whites won

>> No.52924090
File: 192 KB, 1505x796, IMG_0668.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52924090

Imagine not selling SOXL when it hit $72 and the Buffett indicator was more than 2 standard deviations above fair value
Lol, lmao even

>> No.52924098

>>52924090
no way retards on this board know something as basic the buffet index

>> No.52924114

>Argentina is now white
Welp
>France is now not white
Expected.
>>52924090
We've had leveraged ETF TA "traders" for the same amount of time. What a coincidence.

>> No.52924129

>>52924090
The main bull argument against this was that it's different now because the Fed cannot and will not raise rates and so the Buffet Indicator is invalid now so stocks should remain "overvalued" vs. GDP, up only, etc.

>> No.52924132

>>52924035
Kek

>> No.52924183

>>52924129
That argument isn't wrong, though. It's only a matter of time before JPow is forced to capitulate. Unless they want that guy who drew the painting of the Fed to be correct. You know the one.

>> No.52924212

Goods inflation is over. China reopening won't lead to inflation through commodity prices anymore. The problem was never closed factories but closed ports.

>> No.52924217

>>52924183
>It's only a matter of time before JPow is forced to capitulate
10+ years of ZIRP created some serious brainrot in investment. The Fed will "capitulate" when unemployment starts rising seriously, not because tech shitcos are imploding.

>> No.52924224

>>52924183
People were saying this in December though, that's the problem. It's one thing to say that the Fed will stop hiking eventually, it's another to declare that rates will stay at zero forever and watch the Fed hike them 5%

>> No.52924232
File: 550 KB, 526x613, 1634433932135.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52924232

>>52924217
Jpow won't stop until the markets are buck broken. Or in other words, when SPY is sub 200

>> No.52924237

>>52924224
the fed will stop hiking but these retards don't seem to realize they will just leave rates where they are for awhile. The won't stop and cut rates to 0 immediately and stop offloading their balance sheet

>> No.52924244

>>52921487
somalis aren't the same as sub-saharan africans. they're no geniuses but you should think of them the same way you might think of dravidians or amerindians.

>> No.52924255

>>52922725
Why didn’t you mention the Jews in your post, /pol/? How the fuck am I supposed to filter your shit?

>> No.52924257 [DELETED] 
File: 680 KB, 854x900, 1671387097450125.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52924257

Diversity Is Our Strength bros wtf happened

>> No.52924264

>>52924237
>The won't stop and cut rates to 0 immediately and stop offloading their balance sheet
If you are a tech shitco bagholder you need this as fuel for your PIVOOOOOOT copium. I think 2018 shouldn't be viewed as "the template" but rather as now forcing their hand to keep it elevated for longer.
Because if they do just repeat 2018 then yea, everyone here should be finding the worst garbage to "invest" in that they can find. Or like 99% of Cathie Wood's portfolio. And start getting land to store some guns and ammo.

>> No.52924281

>>52924264
The Fed made a huge mistake in 2018 which has basically trained investors to expect the Fed to bail out the market before it even reaches the 20% down threshold, and then just reinforced that view with in 2020. Though you could argue even QE5 in 2013 was a mistake

>> No.52924287

>>52924257
Argentina is the last white country in earth. How do I invest ?

>> No.52924298

>>52922725
Birthrates go down when life milestones considered necessary for starting a family become harder to reach.
Like, this is the most lowkey public secret there is. It just is never talked about because...Boomers. Boomer vampirism is insatiable and its literally undermining the growth of their own socieities.
>google "fertility rate vs housing prices"

>> No.52924302
File: 1.03 MB, 300x225, 1650675196071.gif [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52924302

>>52924237
We will follow the data expeditiously, kike. Either we get a drop of infaltion down to the 3's or we keep raising till its there. See you in 3 months.
>think of the ramifications of inflation going to the 3's in the next few months
>think of the inplications of inflation spiking again.
Tl;dr: nugger you fucked

>> No.52924311

>>52924298
Hating boomers is a glowie psyop to make kids hate their parents, just like what they are doing now with gen x and millennial parents

>> No.52924327
File: 67 KB, 473x480, aa5.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52924327

>>52924257
>>52924287

>> No.52924330

>>52924302
what part of what I said makes you think I'm long, fucking retard

>> No.52924337
File: 191 KB, 1000x775, SLURPSLURPSLURP.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52924337

>>52924311
>Hating boomers is a glowie psyop to make kids hate their parents
It is a pretty ingenious psyop decades in the making then.

>> No.52924340

>>52923688
Grandfather say: "it never rain every day".

>> No.52924361

>>52924330
>the fed will stop hiking
Nigger you are fucking tarded. They will stop raising for the next 3 months. Then co tinue all the way through 2023

>> No.52924362

isnt today the start of hanukuh? i wonder what effect that will have on stocks since the schemitah did fuck all

>> No.52924365

>>52922343
retail is usually more bullish than professional investors
not just in sentiment but also in how they engage with the market, e.g. retail overwhelmingly does not take short positions
professional investors stop trading around the holidays
the period after Christmas is usually green, because the moderating effect that professionals have on the market goes away and you only have retail trading

the smaller the market the bigger this effect, if you're trading indian straw doll futures then there's like three guys who know the appropriate price, they all work at goldman, take their vacation in the same week, and people know to just ignore the price in that week because those guys are gone

>> No.52924368

>>52924361
all I said was that they will stop hiking at some point. I didn't say when, fuck off don't @ me

>> No.52924372

>>52924368
Just an undercover pivotard, i see you

>> No.52924373

>>52924337
It is sad to think that a lot of those silent generation wills just assumed that the money passed on to the boomers would be used to foster generation wealth for their kids. Sadly, if it isn't explicitly stated that way, it won't be used like that.

>> No.52924374
File: 58 KB, 600x450, 1881.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52924374

>>52924362
Hanukah isn't even a major holiday, expect nothing.

>> No.52924396
File: 797 KB, 1778x1067, FinH6hlWIAAiVAq.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52924396

>>52923688
By the 2040s there'll be a renaissance of genetic engineering and brain-computer interfaces and I will live forever as a cute 18yo e-girl in the Metaverse with a f1nn5ter bf and Zuckerberg watching over me.

>> No.52924417
File: 93 KB, 2300x2227, NobleMosquitos.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52924417

>>52924373
It is also in part that the Silent generation was always haunted by their experiences during the Great Depression and WW2. So they set up a bunch of services and guardrails to make sure that would not happen to their descendants.
But Boomers just used them all as ladders to climb and then pull up behind themselves.
It also leads to this rather disturbing idea that "Ok, but then the fat selfish bastards will keel over at some point and that wealth will HAVE to trickly down to their 50-60 year old 'children', right?"
No, because Boomers also financialized everything so its all ultimately based on levels of derivatives. Boomers are going to die and their assets will be sold at losses to cover their medical, end of life, and outstanding debts because their children (if they have any) will not be able to support them in their old age.
An entire generation of vampires. Incredible, really.

>> No.52924437
File: 135 KB, 1200x676, 1671210111852191.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52924437

>LET ME SEE YOU SUFFER BABY, YEAH THAT'S THE STUFF. OH YOU WANNA SOFT LANDING? HOW ABOUT A BIG 100 BPS HIKE STRAIGHT INTO YOUR TIGHT LITTLE ASS??? STOP CRYING!

>> No.52924454
File: 103 KB, 630x590, Celeb_recognition.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52924454

>Only Twenty-Seven Percent (27%) of Times readers can successfully ID JPow
NYTsisters... I though we were supposed to be the sophisticated ones...

also,
> dat disrespect for Abe-sama

>> No.52924465

>>52924417
The decline is going to be glorious, and at least the young boomers are going to die in their own shit and piss, in outsourced nursing homes, tortured by the hungry masses of the planet they wanted to save by a priori consumption of their childrens productivity.

>> No.52924469

>>52924224
Just because the timing was wrong doesn't make it any less true. I doubt people are gonna watch their portfolios go to zero and do nothing.

>> No.52924471

>>52924417
cool it with the antisemitism

>> No.52924477
File: 278 KB, 861x1205, 8A0C4530-8349-4828-BB04-22247BC60CFA.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52924477

>>52923000
Checked, sauce on this strip?

>> No.52924478 [DELETED] 
File: 1.71 MB, 500x500, implying ishygddt.gif [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52924478

>>52924337
Real glowies are top-tier intellects, make MENSA look like a high school chess club meet. The kind of people with enough critical thinking and planning ability to mindfuck an entire city on their own.
Your rank and file "glowie" is either a psyop or a larper doing it for the lulz.

>> No.52924495

>>52924374
>Fifty-two years an imbecile

holy shit i didn't know Rocker lived in the 1800's!

>> No.52924504

>>52924477
Chicken.

>> No.52924507

>>52924478
>Real glowies are top-tier intellects
Fucking kek no they aren't. They are just people who are extremely susceptible to government brainwashing. Glowies "think" they are doing whats best for the country despite the fact they're destroying it. Glowies are just pawns

>> No.52924509

>>52924454
The only people I know on there are:
>Abe-sama
>Rishi Sunak
>JPow
>SBF
>JD Vance
>Lula
why am I supposed to know all these random mulatto actresses and rappers

>> No.52924523

>>52924362
>since the schemitah did fuck all
what was the meme expectation for this?
spy 500 eoy?

>> No.52924534
File: 740 KB, 809x743, 1471570225447.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52924534

>>52924478
Glowies are retarded and naive military boys who could make As on their Criminal Justice good goy degrees. Anyone who's ever worked around glowies knows how unthinking and helpless they are the second they step outside their SOP. It's why there's almost no foreign spy presence anymore, they're too fucking autistic and inhuman after going through modern (((indoctrination))) to maintain cover in between rounds of the CIA getting its personnel database ripped off.

>> No.52924537
File: 2.01 MB, 1024x1024, 1661032700124171.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52924537

>>52924523
>SPY 500
How does 250 sound

>> No.52924560

>>52924287
>Argentina is the last white country in earth. How do I invest ?
VIST. I've been saying this for months.

You could also buy some of the local companies like TGS, PAM, CEPU, YPF, or the banks like GGAL and BMA.
There's also CRESY + IRS which are theoretically very cheap owners of land/property, though I'm not a big fan of the control structure there. Too many layers of subsidiaries funneling money away from shareholders.

Biggest problem with Argentina in general is the controlled currency, enforcing an official exchange rate of around 150:1 pesos/USD which slowly decays while unofficial rate sits closer to 300:1. If you buy shares in US markets you're basically getting that unofficial conversion though.
This creates complications where you're not sure whether a dividend will pay out at the official conversion or unofficial, same with USD debts, and a lot of revenue can be fixed based on the official rate so oil is selling domestically for around half of what it could be in US dollars if it were exported.
There's been hyperinflation the past few years, and at this point it's become sort of self-sustaining since interest rates are so high as well. Exports are very cheap due to the depressed currency, but it'll take a few years and a co-operative government to have any chance of stabilizing. Meanwhile, the IMF jews want to destroy them, to progress their globohomo agenda. They've defaulted on an old loan due to their corrupt government, and IMF keeps holding this over their shoulder. Elections next year could mark a turning point - while the rest of SA heads towards socialism, Argentinians seem like they're sick of that shit. We'll see.

>> No.52924563
File: 515 KB, 3265x776, levee's gonna break.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52924563

Pivot, JPow.

>Or else.

>> No.52924578

>>52924563
Don't pivot. Need to pop the asset bubble while you still can before unemployment goes up

>> No.52924587

>>52924563
I hate the word liquidity.
>Reee prices go down because there aren't enough willing buyers!
Supply and demand bitch.

>> No.52924601
File: 139 KB, 642x880, 4324.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52924601

>JPOW

>> No.52924615

>>52924287
dont they have massive inflation going on right now?

>> No.52924636
File: 111 KB, 849x565, 1671363825426351.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52924636

>>52924563
>Ch*nese scam banks getting rekt by reality & Emperor Xi's wild ride
> "P-please America lower the interest rates so YOUR market doesn't crash"
yeah. I'm thinking another 1% rate hike is in order. at least.

>> No.52924663

>>52924563
Blackrock was being stupid and touting how their PE was at like -15% when market REITs were -30%. So when investors wanted to cash out at that -15% markdown they suddenly had "liquidity problems".
The only people more consistently stupid than those in PE are VCs.

>> No.52924667

>>52924636
If jerome doesn't raise the rates above the CPI than this is all for nothing frankly

>> No.52924690

>>52924523
most times after the schemitah ended there was a significant crash that happened or some kind of self prophesying event. 9/11 being one of the most notable ones in recent history

>> No.52924726

How will stocks perform this week lads? :Pump or dump?

>> No.52924738

>>52924726
We might get one more pity "rally" in the the form of slight upward crabbing but 2023 is going to make 2008 look like a joke

>> No.52924739

>>52924726
lemme get my coin flipping coin and i'll give you an answer soon

>> No.52924740

>>52924726
Risk is always to the upside, people are getting hungry for QE to restart and might start trying to front-run it again

>> No.52924747

>>52924726
obviously a santa rally. all the indicators show we were oversold by friday.

>> No.52924754

>>52921604
So there's this theory about generations and history that basically every 65 to 85 years or so we're doomed to repeat a previous catastrophe. The reason given is that because no one is alive who remembers the original catastrophe, we inadvertently end up in the same situation because human nature is fundamentally unchanged.

Best example off the top of my head:
>USA 1776 - War of Independence
>85 years later...
>USA 1861 - Civil War
>85 years later...
>USA 1946 - WW2 just ended

Or look at it this way
>1861 + 65 = 1926
>1929 Great Depression
>80 years later 2008 Great Recession

So yeah the reason why the banks are making these mistakes again is because there's literally no one alive working at these banks who remembers what happened the last time they were this retarded.

>> No.52924757
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52924757

>>52924726

>> No.52924767
File: 21 KB, 263x262, miko29.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52924767

I can't believe i'm about to say this but, I kind of wish baggot was here, I have a football 3 leg parlay I placed today and I want to hear what he thinks of it.

>> No.52924776

>>52924478
>Real glowies are top-tier intellects
glad someone gets it. people seem to think everyone is as stupid as they are. they cant comprehend a real 130+ iq person.

>> No.52924806
File: 649 KB, 373x498, basedjack.gif [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52924806

>JPOW GONNA POOVIT

>> No.52924813

>>52924776
The only 130+ IQ people are not working for the CIA. They are mouth breathing autists that pick their butts and sniff their finger. Basically code monkey type people. Smart people are hard to control.

>> No.52924867

>>52924615
>dont they have massive inflation going on right now?
Yes. They have pretty persistent hyperinflation. Close to 70% inflation in the official rate. Unofficial rate has been lumpier, collapsing in stages. Tends to struggle more in the summer (which is their winter). The basic way to calculate unofficial rate is to look at where stocks are trading on the Bolsa vs US market prices. The big collapse this year coincided with the June CPI beat, increase in Fed hikes, and subsequent USD strength.
https://bluedollar.net/informal-rate/

It's pretty comparable to the Turkish Lira. Worth noting that Turkish equities have been some of the top performers this year. TUR has practically doubled YTD.

>> No.52924894

>>52922876
>declares bankruptcy
Sorry Charlie thanks for the loan

>> No.52924930

>>52921450
Make sure to stock up on blankets and gloves

>> No.52924944

>>52924813
smart people want power. trump has 130+ iq.

>> No.52924963
File: 149 KB, 849x895, pan a meses.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52924963

>>52924287
>investing on a sinking ship

>> No.52924977

>>52921450
Well pepper your angus cause we are in for a Christmas Crash!

>> No.52924979

>>52924726
Yes

>> No.52925019
File: 203 KB, 1024x681, 1671324724676965.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52925019

>futures

>> No.52925022

>>52924963
I don't speak burrito, can you translate please

>> No.52925030

>>52921604
If you ever want to have a self contained example to understand how booms and busts can feed into each other look at the airline industry.
Limited total market space because ultimately routes are locked to airports and the number of possible passengers. Airlines are also pretty heavy on capex. Because of this, when you are no longer expanding and have excess cash flow that goes into dividends or share buybacks.
During boom cycles, more firms are created to try to take margin routes. Cheap debt allows them to buy first old, and then newer planes at higher costs. Eventually an equilibria is reached where expansion of any one airline doesn't make much sense because too many routes are crowded with potentially overleveraged big and small competitors which push margins to zero.
When a recession begins, families and businesses tighten their spending including on air travel. For businesses, meetings that require air travel become slim and families plan fewer vacations. This drop in demand crushes the industry broadly. Those with cash reserves and positive cash flow with responsible management can "weather" the storm while those that can't declare bankruptcy. The loss of these firms does several things. First, the routes they previously ran are now much more open. Allowing for expansion opportunities of the surviving firms and better margins on more heavily trafficked routes. It also means their assets go on sale, including their planes, at huge discounts. Firms on the edge merge together to become leaner enterprises with better cash spending discipline. The cash flush firms then buy assets for cheap and have more routes to make more cash. And the cycle begins anew.
Bankruptcy is a cleansing force for renewal as it has always been. It is just that for the past 10 years, no one wanted to be the person to "remove the punch bowl". Sure didn't help that the Fed chickened out in both 2018 and then 2020.

>> No.52925032
File: 122 KB, 1684x1334, NNN.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52925032

I've made it to NNN + 17.5.... and now I don't really feel anything at all anymore. Am I doing this right?

>> No.52925040

Nexa went up 16% Friday for no reason. It’s a zinc, lead, and copper stock. Sqm went down below 85. It might be time to take a nibble at that lithium powerhouse stock

>> No.52925061

>>52924963
>>52925022
The have some insane exchange rate tax on dollars there. I remember whatching some show where Americans went there to buy some vintage cars and they took the cash in dollars with them since it would’ve been too expensive to try to pull dollars out of a bank down there with the taxes on pulling dollars out there. Also I believe their government has gone full socialism to the point it’s damn near communism there now.

>> No.52925067

>>52925022
I think it's inviting you to make 3 payments on a packaged cake.

>> No.52925076

>>52924287
Winning the WC won't really help them on their 30% poverty rate and their 80% yearly inflation though. I wouldn't invest. Well, I guess they can melt the gold, I wonder how much is that WC worth.

>> No.52925098

I'm gonna troon out so I can't be fired during the recession or my company gets sued for racism. We must all make sacrifices during these trying times (I will be a woman).

>> No.52925108

>>52924963
Dios mio.

>> No.52925110

FUCK SILVERGATE
REEEEEEEEEE

>> No.52925118 [DELETED] 
File: 355 KB, 1920x1080, tranny4.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52925118

>>52925098
>transitions
>thinks he'll get fired
You'll probably get a promotion and win a nobel prize because of it

>> No.52925126

>>52925118
That's what I meant bro.

>> No.52925147

>>52925126
Based. It's probably important to ask before you transition. What are your thoughts on being a moderator for an anonymous image board, without pay?

>> No.52925165

>>52921943
>r2 = -.4
dumb ass

>> No.52925169

>>52925147
I'd have to clear it with my company first before getting a second job.

>> No.52925182

Can someone visit the crypto pits and let me know what’s happening?
Is Silvergate going to zero yet? Is Binance/tether scam still going?

>> No.52925192

>>52925182
>Is Binance/tether scam still going?
If this ever gets busted there simply won't be a /biz/ anymore.

>> No.52925207

>>52925182
yes. short SBNY.

>> No.52925212

>>52925182
Silvergate to zero
Silver to infinity

The gates are falling. Cryptocucks will get the rope. The sun is shining on precious metals.

>> No.52925222
File: 306 KB, 250x432, 1671232832634068.webm [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52925222

I didnt close my shorts on friday.that means its dumping tomorrow too,right?

>> No.52925234

>>52925222
ominous trips. we'll know in a couple hours.

>> No.52925243
File: 44 KB, 735x708, 0dd2eeb27b77c0651aa5c4bfcc63e24e.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52925243

>>52924232
You are stupid and should stop posting. If SPY crashed to 200 the entire bond market and pension would blow the fuck up and the FED forced to come in with QE infinity and they would cut interest rates to ZERO. The fed doesn't want to blow up the economy... The resiliency of the stock market is the ONLY reason the fed was capable of increasing rates at the fastest pace in modern history.

We are about to enter a really weird recession. Everyone and their grandma predicting stock market is going to crash to all time lows are about to get wrecked. We will have another volatile year.

Watch stock market not crash down as we enter a recession. Shit is gonna get WEIRDDDDDD.

Prepare for the year of the CRABBBBBBBBB with a 10% chance of a melt up.

>> No.52925248

>>52921943
to add to your chart:
in early 1980 they lowered interest rates from 18% to 9%
from 1991 to 1993 they lowered interest rates from 8% to 3%

so both periods with gains during rising unemployment were because of lowering rates.

it seems the stock market is really simple. lowering rates = buy, rising rates = sell.

>> No.52925253
File: 188 KB, 750x607, 826B6A2A-631A-4312-A54A-6E99B75A87E0.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52925253

The straight up lie about economic data now. Beyond rigged.

>> No.52925265
File: 1.40 MB, 1334x750, 65BABAE3-E746-4439-A734-F45C53939E8E.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52925265

>>52925253
>The straight up lie about economic data now. Beyond rigged.

They said they had a million new jobs when they basically had none..

Lol.. lmao..

>> No.52925266
File: 6 KB, 206x261, 925c29badf04191a5c381f8f583360e9.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52925266

>>52925243
Oh yeah. WW2 was started in the year of the rabbit. next year is the year of the rabbit again...

Just saying... Black swans may be coming near you soon!

>> No.52925267
File: 1.03 MB, 1280x720, 1670556533554758.webm [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52925267

>>52925253
>washington times

>> No.52925275
File: 362 KB, 750x651, CE2D8F3F-85A5-4B4B-B2C5-272356F2CE28.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52925275

>>52925267

>> No.52925286
File: 102 KB, 750x517, 6F881046-512A-420A-BB21-2DD241599C2C.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52925286

>>52925267
>>52925267

>> No.52925298
File: 150 KB, 1001x811, 652B000F-A508-4878-A4C2-7836B4EE29C1.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52925298

>>52925267
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/assets/surveys-and-data/benchmark-revisions/early-benchmark-2022-q2-report.pdf

>> No.52925306
File: 30 KB, 564x564, 0dffd248c9a4989884bebcf53cb029cb.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52925306

>>52925222
nah, we probably going up. probably dump by the end of the week though. Then Santa's coming to yo motherfucking house to fuck shit up!

>> No.52925313

>>52925275
>>52925286
>>52925253
>>52925265
is this gonna cancel the santa rally??

>> No.52925314
File: 50 KB, 600x600, 1670523000437406.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52925314

>>52925275
>>52925286
>>52925298
Buddy..

>> No.52925317

>>52925265
You realize these numbers have been nonsense for a long time. They survey big businesses, then make up numbers for other businesses to get the total they want. Use the household survey numbers, or trust your own lying eyes.

>> No.52925319
File: 2.32 MB, 568x856, 1668053755630941.webm [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52925319

>>52925275
>>52925286
>>52925298

>greentext of source name accompanied by a smug webm, gif, or image

>> No.52925321

>>52925313
>is this gonna cancel the santa rally??
No obviously this mean the PIVOOOOOOOT comes earlier.

>> No.52925336

>>52925313
Only one msm picked it up and that was the Washington times

That was a lie that influenced trillions and trillions of dollars in the market. I can’t believe they are off the hook with the press. Lmao

>> No.52925367

>>52925319
How do I invest into a river based melon transportation business?

>> No.52925380

>>52925212
I should probably buy more shiny rocks but I am noguns.
Maybe oil and miners?

>> No.52925382

>>52925336
So we're going to silently pretend it doesnt matter. Based communism, Santa Rally is a GO.

>> No.52925386
File: 24 KB, 368x538, 2c400af85dda8e9bcbb341e55d6d0d49.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52925386

>>52925321
Ironically this is the truth. They are setting up the narrative to start pausing really soon. Like I said before. The DEC may have been the last interest rate hike. Maybe one or two left the MOST. The narrative is going to start shifting.

But we already knew the fed would pause soon because the fed follows the 2 year treasury.

>> No.52925388

>>52925207
>short sbny
>not SI

>> No.52925392

>>52925313
I think it’s bullish because they have a free pass to lie about numbers even when exposed the press won’t cover it because they are all in on the illegitimate pedo regime

>> No.52925393
File: 78 KB, 1491x819, 1671371535542587.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52925393

>>52922266
January 2001 (blue circle) is when the bear market rally ended, DXY bounced off of 103, rising dollar coincided with stock collapse

>> No.52925419
File: 710 KB, 1138x946, 1671134892521160.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52925419

>>52925243
>Everyone and their grandma predicting stock market is going to crash
No, just all hedge funds, wealth managers, and index option enjoyers. Retards, retail, WSB, GME apes, equity options degenerates, and you, are all hard stuck in complacency saying the crash will never happen because smart people are predicting it.

> to all time lows are about to get wrecked. We will have another volatile year.
Oh it's about to be volatile baby. We actually haven't had a market this overheated since 1920.

>> No.52925427

>gook retard is a permabull PIVOOOTER
lol

>> No.52925431

>>52922135
>https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202212/1281724.shtml
dude did you just link chinese propaganda?
CRINGE

>> No.52925465
File: 249 KB, 1696x1947, 1662779777873619 (1).jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52925465

Will next year be green or red?

>> No.52925468

>>52925319
>Wakanda river

>> No.52925474
File: 222 KB, 720x720, 1667941371050416.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52925474

>>52925468

>> No.52925476

>>52925386
Some ultra-autist anon was hoping for the 50 that just happened and a 25 so it would be symmetrical.

Dec 14, 2022 +50 4.25% to 4.50%
Nov 2, 2022 +75 3.75% to 4.00%
Sept 21, 2022 +75 3.00% to 3.25%
July 27, 2022 +75 2.25% to 2.5%
June 16, 2022 +75 1.5% to 1.75%
May 5, 2022 +50 0.75% to 1.00%
March 17, 2022 +25 0.25% to 0.50%
Data from https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/fed-funds-rate-history/

>> No.52925479

short BNB

>> No.52925491

>>52925465
sniff

>> No.52925506
File: 7 KB, 222x227, pepe.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52925506

Its clear to me that the market will not stop its steady decline until shorting is outlawed like it was temporarily in 2008.
Midwits won't understand.

>> No.52925522
File: 260 KB, 1240x1682, 5cd4f7f9cfb50505983c0818cd8d0efb.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52925522

>>52925506
>SPY still 13% above pre kung flu levels

>> No.52925531
File: 38 KB, 700x540, 5697FD6D-B913-4524-92F6-0D9F47D92A12.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52925531

>>52925243
>eberi1 is bera

>> No.52925549

>>52925286
They also faked GDP numbers by understating inflation. No one listened at the time though.

>> No.52925552
File: 511 KB, 750x578, 1671209071687838.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52925552

>>52925522

>> No.52925561
File: 195 KB, 820x886, wojak.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52925561

>Pre-Futures

>> No.52925616

>>52921604
>unemployment has bottomed out and is reversing
Fake news.

>> No.52925639

>>52925522
me on the bottom right

>> No.52925679

Fucking kek! Been posting random shit all day, but the moment I post something negative about trannies, the jannies sperg out. Hmm wonder why?

>> No.52925705
File: 1021 KB, 949x1371, ijy3yufjvqz71.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52925705

>>52925679
That's right. And don't you forget it.

>> No.52925725

>>52925705
what her name

>> No.52925731
File: 165 KB, 300x390, 1668483495778327.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52925731

>>52925725
>her

>> No.52925735
File: 1.55 MB, 498x407, 1669671852626252.gif [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52925735

>>52925731

>> No.52925739

>>52925679
I’m not a fan of what’s happened to smg these days. The new moderation seems borderline glowie in nature.

And the market is fucken asssss right now, what a shitshow.

>> No.52925748
File: 1.14 MB, 2610x2353, 1668262581455615.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52925748

>>52925735
I am

>> No.52925771
File: 157 KB, 805x767, jvrz7wer9i6a1.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52925771

>futures gapping down
It's over.

>> No.52925779
File: 98 KB, 960x953, 1634082716110.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52925779

>>52925735
EVER VIGILANT

>> No.52925788

New

>>52925786
>>52925786

>> No.52925796

>>52925419
Nobody actually believes in the recession that everyone said was happening based on their positioning lol

>> No.52925800

>>52921460
>>52921460
You guys know it dumped on friday last year too and then pumped the following week?

I swear this thread is just faggots reacting to things second by second with no foresight or hindsight. Just pure id and emotion and crying.

>> No.52925801
File: 2.48 MB, 3444x1920, 2F58F333-A012-4D34-B240-95C868EC8977.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52925801

>PRE-PAST FUTURES

>> No.52925822

>>52921487
Somalis have a thousand year history of naval warfare and stealing shit.

>> No.52925828

>>52925739
I've been banned so many times lately. I'm very in favor of moving the thread back to /pol/

>> No.52925838

>>52921442
You're not going g to make it unless you buy puts on TLT

>> No.52925908
File: 312 KB, 600x562, 1670301111571385.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52925908

THREAD THEME
https://youtu.be/RFvCnv35qTI