/smg/ - Stock Market General

[Anonymous No.52891579]

>futures

>Live Streams:
http://www.livenewson.com/american/bloomberg-television-business.html
https://watchnewslive.tv/watch-cnbc-live-stream-free-24-7/

>Educational sites:
https://www.investopedia.com/
https://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain
https://www.thebalance.com/

>Free charts:
https://www.tradingview.com
https://www.finscreener.com/
https://www.koyfin.com/

>Screeners:
https://finviz.com/
https://www.tradingview.com/screener
https://etfdb.com/

>Pre-Market Data and Live data:
https://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futures
https://finance.yahoo.com/

>Bio-pharma Catalyst Calendar:
https://biopharmcatalyst.com

>Boomer Investing 101:
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Getting_started

>Dividend Reinvestment (DRIP) calculator:
https://www.dividendchannel.com/drip-returns-calculator/

>List of hedge fund holdings:
https://fintel.io/

>Misc:
https://squeezemetrics.com/monitor
https://market24hclock.com/
https://tradingeconomics.com
https://wallmine.com/
https://tikr.com/

Previous:
>>52889191

[Anonymous No.52891584]

[Anonymous No.52891588]

>>52891584

[Anonymous No.52891591]

LET THE MUSIC GUIDE YOU
https://youtu.be/4sWmdXqXgkw

[Anonymous No.52891598]

>>52891591
Based trace chad

[Anonymous No.52891604]

you have no idea how short i am

[Anonymous No.52891608]

>>52891604
Neither do you, because with only 1 eye you have no depth perception

[Anonymous No.52891619]

>>52891604
Is Burry talking extra greasy?

[Anonymous No.52891629]

>>52891604
All 6'+ chads are alike, but every 5'11'' manlet is 5'11'' in his own way

[Anonymous No.52891638]

>>52891584
Ok, I'll expose myself. Who is this?

[Anonymous No.52891640]

I lost 20 grand (basically my life savings) this year gambling on the market and now I have no idea what to do. I work a dead end minimum wage job and I don't have a gf, wife, or family members to rely on. I'm literally fucked as it took me nearly two decades to save up that cash in the first place. I feel so empty right now

[Anonymous No.52891647]

>>52891579
The tesla shortsellers must be salivating

[Anonymous No.52891653]

warren buffet had 10million at 30 years old.
legend

[Anonymous No.52891654]

>>52891640
Start saving up again and quit gambling simple as

20g isn't that much so consider it a tough lesson

[Anonymous No.52891657]

>>52891640
Hopefully you learned a lesson about gambling.

[Anonymous No.52891660]

Putting a stink bid on SPY calls, I know its going to pump to fuck the bobos but I'm hoping it dips at least 1 percent tommorow first

[Anonymous No.52891663]

>>52891640
Also start learning some skills to move up professionally and improving yourself

It's 100% not the end of the world and you need to let the losses go and move on but learn the lessons

[Anonymous No.52891665]

Good short/put plays?
My current ones are SPOT, Z, FSLR, COIN, JNJ, PFE. Sold RBLX puts after it crashed -16%.

Shitcos or good technical setups would be much appreciated.

[Anonymous No.52891667]

>>52891579
Weak

[Anonymous No.52891670]

>>52891665
eat my ass

[Anonymous No.52891676]

>>52891665
>JNJ
>PFE
Why? They might as well be nationalized businesses at this point. The truth about the vaxx won't be declassified for another 50 years.

[Anonymous No.52891686]

>>52891676
technicals. I think they may have found a local top. We'll see if I'm right or not. Bit of a gamble

[Anonymous No.52891687]

>>52891670

[Anonymous No.52891693]

>>52891667
>betting on sports
You realize the NFL is rigged right? Like it's still fun to watch like wrestling, but even former NFL players have come right out and said it's rigged.

[Anonymous No.52891699]

>>52891665
TXN
GS
SBUX
GM
TAN

[Anonymous No.52891707]

>>52891687
You bastard I didn't need to see the coin slot today!

[Anonymous No.52891708]

>>52891693
When will they rig it for my Jags? I just want to be happy

[Anonymous No.52891710]

>>52891708
T Law is looking way better

[Anonymous No.52891721]

>>52891579
So can the anon of an earlier thread explain to me why TLT is overbought?? I need to know if I should buy some TLT puts. Also does anyone have any good bond books

[Anonymous No.52891730]

>>52891708
Once you draw bigger national interest. The super bowl will likely be 49ers and Bengals this year. Just a hunch. My lions are starting to gain interest after hard knocks so hopefully them soon.

[Anonymous No.52891733]

I didn't stop DCAing this year and it turned out pretty well. Turns out that being a sheep helped a lot

[Anonymous No.52891737]

>>52891699
Haven't had much luck with SBUX in the past but I'll take a look at these all thanks

[Anonymous No.52891739]

Tech is all valueless bullshit outside of the tech titans. Commodities, energy, and transportation are real money generating things.

[Anonymous No.52891742]

>>52891730
Jags are moving to London within 5 years

[Anonymous No.52891758]

>>52891640
Rocker is paying above minimum wage and needs help.

[Anonymous No.52891772]

>>52891739
The only way to keep Boomer real estate valuations elevated is easy money. And that easy money then gushes into other sectors like shale. Where "investors" literally set money on fire to overproduce shale oil. And that tends to happen everywhere.
Protecting boomer housing and mindless mouthbreathing tech buying go hand in hand.

[Anonymous No.52891776]

>>52891687
funny how i have been temp banned for posting women in bikinis on multiple occasions yet someone can post am obese mans bare asshole and nothing happens. Jannies really are faggots.
>>52891733
always be buying anon. and always have cash on hand to be buying

[Anonymous No.52891791]

Applied to 30+ jobs tonight. Surely I will hear back from at least one.

[Anonymous No.52891797]

>>52891693
Stonk market is more rigged. Cashed on poots today too. Long calls took a hit , again

[Anonymous No.52891799]

>>52891791
Good luck anon I hope you get hired

[Anonymous No.52891800]

>>52891791
lol

[Anonymous No.52891802]

I just realized today that I am going to take a 25% cap gain hit when I switch my portfolio from growth to income ETFs... Thankfully my TFSA has a fuck ton in it to compensate

[Anonymous No.52891822]

>>52891638
Me.

[Anonymous No.52891825]

Bottom is in when zerohedge comments section is bullish

[Anonymous No.52891826]

>>52891791
Hit up Robert Half or similar. Way easier and they get commission for getting you a paying job

[Anonymous No.52891828]

>>52891791
Gl bro

[Anonymous No.52891837]

>>52891742
Allegedly. The Europe doesn't give a fuck about American football. And the players hate making the trip to London already, but Shahid Khan and the NFL insist it will work. People forget the complete failure that was the NFL euro league. By all means they can try though.
>>52891758
I'm ready to just shut it down frankly. I'm tired of managing losers but it could be worse. My newest zoomer employee works at Applebee's during the day and the stories he's told me left me speechless. I'll have to include that in my next video. Both me and the owner are just tired of dealing with losers and we're just trying to milk as much money out of the business before we shut it down. I look forward to the day we shutdown and I can give all my loser employees the middle finger and tell them good luck finding a new job.

[Anonymous No.52891840]

>>52891653
That's a fairly small amount of money for an average-wealth 30 year old, I'd say?

[Anonymous No.52891849]

>>52891826
Will they gave me something ideal (easy) that's also remote or just some random retail stuff in my local area?

[Anonymous No.52891854]

>>52891604
this u?

[Anonymous No.52891855]

>>52891837
You need to interview the KO boomer. I want to hear his life story

[Anonymous No.52891858]

>>52891837
I still don't understand why they don't put a team in Canada. A lot of Canadians watch the NFL already

[Anonymous No.52891863]

>>52891826
>>52891826
Robert Half is incredibly variable depending on location and specific job market.

If you look for software jobs in Boston/New York, Robert Half is useless.

If you look for software jobs in San Jose / San Francisco, Robert Half will get you a 120k salary job relatively quickly (assuming you aren't retarded and memorized your leetcode).

Vice versa for legal market. If you want a job as an attorney in NY/Boston, Robert Half will be great. But in SF/San Jose, it will be useless.

[Anonymous No.52891871]

>>52891858
They already have the CFL though.

[Anonymous No.52891872]

Just got a 50k insurance payout check. What do I buy with it to 100x into 5 million by this time next year so I can retire.

[Anonymous No.52891881]

>>52891872
SKYT

[Anonymous No.52891886]

>>52891872
A very good piece of advice I once heard is "you don't have to make all your money at once".

Sometimes there *aren't* 100x deals around.

[Anonymous No.52891891]

Buy TMV calls for June 23 they will double, here’s some TA, also Powell told us he’s gonna keep hiking…. Most obvious play in the market right now is to short bonds on leverage

[Anonymous No.52891894]

>>52891855
He wants to be interviewed so it will happen.

[Anonymous No.52891899]

>>52891886
But I want easy, instant gratification and success.

[Anonymous No.52891904]

>>52891640
Ignore all that other trash advice. Coping and moving on is the WORST thing you can do. Here's a better plan
>take out a 30k personal loan. Fake your income if you can't qualify.
>learn how to actual trade. Stop being a retard
>double it
>pay it back
>keep the profit
Everyone blows up at least once in their life. It's what you do afterwards that makes or breaks your existence as a trader.

[Anonymous No.52891906]

>>52891891
Millionaires will be made if you time this huge fucking uninversion of the curve + nominally positive rate swing

[Anonymous No.52891907]

>>52891837
can u interview me right now about volga shock and vomma swaps and zomma perps

[Anonymous No.52891910]

>>52891907
VIX anon go the fuck home I’m tired of waiting for your tigers nigger

[Anonymous No.52891915]

>>52891899
Then hit up the casino. At least they give you free drinks.

[Anonymous No.52891918]

>>52891906
How low should the ten year really be compared to the terminal rate is the question.

[Anonymous No.52891921]

>>52891907
Wait are you the sleeping tigers anon?

[Anonymous No.52891922]

>>52891910
I am ready for an interview right now i have my papers ready and I am ready to discuss how the Hidden Tigers will precipitate the gamma (acceleration) or vega (volga).

[Anonymous No.52891924]

go one day without seeing nikacado asshole Challenge = impossible

[Anonymous No.52891926]

>>52891891

Uh anon pls don’t read my thoughts and steal my trades.

Also for anyone not paying attention, tomorrows going to be the second biggest opex of the year and liquidity just took a nosedive. If tomorrow starts red we could see one of the biggest one day drops of the year.

[Anonymous No.52891928]

>>52891904
>>learn how to actual trade. Stop being a retard
i've been here for 3 years and i can't quite get the hang of this crucial step
a 30k loan is like a 1200/mo payment

[Anonymous No.52891931]

>>52891921
The tigers are not sleeping. The tigers were never sleeping. They have always been awake.

They are just hiding. Hidden.

Look at VVIX.

[Anonymous No.52891935]

>>52891922
we had a date like 3 nights ago you were supposed to translate your vedic nonsense into english and you stood me up to watch mommy foot fetish porn instead

[Anonymous No.52891936]

>>52891918
Much higher, at least 2% spread historically IIRC. Has been much higher in the past as well. Long term rates really should be at minimum 6% right now, probably closer to 8%

[Anonymous No.52891938]

gamma exposure went negative today
volatility (and the sell off) will increase
wait for gamma exposure to go back positive OR extremely negative to inverse

[Anonymous No.52891947]

>>52891931
Kek I've always loved your autism. I'll keep you in mind

[Anonymous No.52891949]

>>52891922
You told me tigers would strike last CPI print and I lost all my money to a 7% spike you faggot. I’m done with you go home, fake ass nigger ass tigers don’t exist

[Anonymous No.52891952]

>>52891935
Oh yeah i remember that i felt bad i had to actually do go and do work as the thread expired instead of shitposting on 4channel in the new /smg/ thread.

My vedic script translation of the Zomma and Vomma Chronicles are complete.

[Anonymous No.52891957]

>>52891924
Balance it out by having one meme you enjoy seeing every day. For example, I always get a kick out of the "Welcome 2 Nigga Town" picture.

[Anonymous No.52891964]

>>52891949
>You told me tigers would strike last CPI print
Lmaooo what the fuck I have never ever talked about Hidden Tigers in relation to CPI prints

I am unironically butthurt at the fact that back tenor VIX options and similar vol products have just not caught a bid. STOP SELLING SPY PUTS YOU FAGS

[Anonymous No.52891967]

>>52891936
So the 3.5% is the market believeing in a quick and hard pivot along with a flight to safety in a recession all at one? That the higher for longer mantra meaning the long dated treasuries will have to surge to uninvert the spread? Why not buy short dated part of the curve to even it out? Because then they just lose money compared to fed rate?

[Anonymous No.52891971]

>>52891837
>I'm tired of managing losers
stones in glass houses

[Anonymous No.52891975]

Did bears really lose money this week because of CPI? Did you really buy short DTE otm puts?
Buy the april/may $370p you dumb IDIOTS

[Anonymous No.52891983]

>>52891964
>am i wrong?
>no it's the market
okey dokey hairy krishna

[Anonymous No.52891986]

>>52891928
You're paying back the loan though. At 10% that's only 3k interest per year. I said 30k because that leaves him with 10k that he doesn't need to feel whole again when looking at his portfolio. Good to keep a safety net beyond what you're trading with, and to pay down the monthly payments so you don't feel compelled to withdraw capital immediately.
Being profitable is pretty essential though. If you never had any profitability or ideas for profitable trading styles in the first place, then you've really got nothing to work with.
I blew up back in 2020. Took out a loan. Now I've fully recovered and made about 250k on top.

[Anonymous No.52891993]

>>52891904
>>52891928
do not do this. I seriously hope you're joking.
You won't trade effectively because you're emotionally invested.

[Anonymous No.52892000]

>>52891687
why is this still up?

[Anonymous No.52892001]

>>52891983
>hairy krishna
Kek

So imo the CPI prints are decent straddle opportunities. Let me dig up a long rambling post I made about how one of the recent CPI prints were one of the most mispriced straddles in the history of SPY options (aka the straddles/long volatility was super cheap and underpriced the batshit CPI moves)

[Anonymous No.52892006]

>>52891971
You don't realize just how bad it is anon. I haven't had an employee that can even show up on time to work in over 16 months. Even when the owner was there for a week, they were still late every fucking day. That's literally the bare minimum. Just show up to work on time. The American workforce is fundamentally broken, and this won't play out the way the anti-work fan fiction thinks it will.

[Anonymous No.52892009]

>>52891584
Based

[Anonymous No.52892012]

>>52891904
>stop being a retard
Anon by the time he learns how to do that he's gonna lose a lot of that 30k unless he's smart

[Anonymous No.52892024]

>>52892000
checked + jannies need to do their job
>CLEAN UP THE SHIT JANNIE

[Anonymous No.52892026]

>>52891986
>Now I've fully recovered and made about 250k on top.
lol bullshit. taking a loan and expecting to double it is retarded

[Anonymous No.52892030]

>>52891591
You need some classic 2000s trance my nigga. This shit sounds fake in comparison.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FMe-uRanLrs

[Anonymous No.52892032]

2s/10s (yield curve) inversion about to start reversing over next 6 months - we are gonna see TMV go for a quick trip to the moon

[Anonymous No.52892036]

I can’t wait for all market moves that have been made in the past 4 days to be inversed tomorrow.

[Anonymous No.52892046]

Everything is pointing to a recession except for the fact that everyone is pointing to a recession and everyone expects a recession. I can't wait to see how the market moves for maximum beheemage of retail investors. All anyone can guarantee is we will be beclowned.

[Anonymous No.52892067]

>>52892006
Rocker, everything you describe about how retarded the American labor force is compels me to keep studying Machine Learning / data science / Artificial Intelligence

wage cagie jobs, even jobs like attorneys, will all be rendered obsolete by far more efficient robotic employees

[Anonymous No.52892071]

>>52892046
Except, unlike overcrowded trades, if everyone piles into the recession side of the boat, a recession can actually trigger. CEOs that buck the trend get axed quickly, so weaker economic forecasts = reduced capex & hiring plans = weaker economic reality. Same for consumers cutting back and saving up for lean times. That murcs demand.

[Anonymous No.52892074]

>>52892032

I’ve made more money trading options on bond shit, the VIX, and GLD than anything else this year. 2023 should be even better.

[Anonymous No.52892084]

>>52892067
robots will never the soft touch required to polish shit stains out of porcelain toilet bowls like our boy rocker. he's made rock solid career choices

[Anonymous No.52892085]

>>52892001
>>52891983
>>52891949
Do you bhenchodes know that last month on November 10th 2022, was the worst mispricing of a one-day SPY ATM straddle in history by a wide-margin ?

This means that people underestimated the dispersion of vol. Heteroskedasticity.

Pic related. What happens when the market doesn't properly price in giga-retard CPI moves

The milkbreaths. The whites. The mayonnaise miggers.

They didn't listen to my posts from November.

[Anonymous No.52892086]

>>52891967
I typed up a whole post and it got deleted unfortunately, but yes essentially. The markets predicting a pivot back to zero on longer time frames and is frothing at buying bonds that yield > 0% for the inevitable ZIRP. You don’t buy short dated because of inflation, and also because the fed has pinned overnight rates with RRP. The scenario in which buying 1yr treasuries right now makes you look like a genius is one where inflation falls off a cliff and the fed keeps rates raising. I think more than likely though the short end of the curve will look smart when inflation keeps rising and the fed keeps rising and all bonds get fucked, but long term bonds take another 40% rashy shit as they go to 8% and people actually start feeling the fear.

[Anonymous No.52892091]

>>52892067
I agree with you and you'd be smart to go that route. In my entire life I've never seen anything like it. Automation is the only way out of this. People don't think they can be fired, but when you do fire them, they act like it's completely unfounded. It's complete delusion. Everyone said pay them more. You pay them more and they don't change. The only answer is to absolutely punish the lazy. Give them UBI but only enough money so they don't starve to death and not a penny more. Reward the responsible workers and punish the lazy. I'm so ashamed to be an American in 2022.

[Anonymous No.52892108]

>>52892067
>anon can’t figure out my Jewish banking magic
>somehow thinks robots will understand it better
My knowledge comes straight from the Torah retard you can never outsource me

[Anonymous No.52892118]

>>52892026
>lol bullshit.
whatever

>>52892012
Maybe. Depends whether he was actually gambling, or merely stated that on the basis that he feels like he took an unlucky loss. There is luck in this game, no question about that. No one has perfect information (except TWTR buyout that was fucking free). A losing streak is unlikely to be reversed without completely altering strategy, but a single bad loss can just be a combination of bad luck and/or bad risk management.

[Anonymous No.52892126]

>>52892108
Bro bro bro bro bro. Please tell me what Wall Street jews have been doing literally since Jim Simons of Renaissance Tech (jew) reinvented the game.

It's all machine learning. quants. data science. the game of finance is now all data science driven, and the Jews who find alpha in a world drive by beta are all using DS or more specifically ML

[Anonymous No.52892141]

>>52892091
Rocker, will u learn Python and SQL with me? We can go over time series data for ShitCos together

[Anonymous No.52892144]

>>52892085
i try to listen to you but you see i'm a fucking retarded high school dropout and you don't post a lot of trades for me to follow with the vix magic so i just buy garmin and sci because i blew my account up twice this year so i should probably stick to a savings account anyway

[Anonymous No.52892146]

>>52892126
Well tomorrow those machines are gonna have quite the party with a giant quad witching laden with huge negative gamma.

The rest of this year could be a rug pull for the ages.

[Anonymous No.52892151]

I will have a cute Zoom video call date with Rocker. We will both be shirtless as we introduce ourselves to each other. Then I will share my screen on google chrome with 40 different tranny porn bookmarks as we go over our Jupyter notebook code that uses SciKit and Pandas for stock time series data analysis

[Anonymous No.52892156]

Why does the euro keep going up? Shouldn't they be burning furniture to stay warm by now?

[Anonymous No.52892168]

>>52892144
I am a shit trader, but I am decent at analyzing companies. Do not listen to my trades, but maybe listen to my ideas.

SCI, BCC, GRMN, are all great stocks imo but idk how to trade well

SHOP, COIN, SAVA, AVXL, etc are all shitcos that should be shorted but idk how to trade well

The VIX/VVIX / hidden tiger shit is just me shitposting and doomposting not actual trade ideas

I suck massive fat cock at trading, but im not any worse than people on /smg/. I just realize that humans cannot daytrade, but robots can

[Anonymous No.52892170]

>>52892141
I dunno. I'm really not cut out for cubicle cuck work.

[Anonymous No.52892169]

>>52892126
Renaissance literally just the most successful market maker to ever exist, it’s all HFT. They do not make successful long term plays they make guaranteed spreads and arbitrage and do it faster than any other entity in the market. ML finance is malarkey, pure malarkey, all these funds have never made a successful bet on economic trends in their entire life. That’s all quants do too, quants are fucking obsessed with finding asset correlations and milking the arb opportunities. Nothing in finance that does with AI is ever related to investing, it’s all market making strategies down to its core.

[Anonymous No.52892225]

>>52892169
What the fuck, Renaissance is not a fucking market maker. jesus christ, they trade mainly commodities (coffee futures are one of RenTech's favorites) and other assets, but they do not market make.
>. They do not make successful long term plays they make guaranteed spreads and arbitrage and do it faster than any other entity in the market.
True
>ML finance is malarkey, pure malarkey, all these funds have never made a successful bet on economic trends in their entire life.

Okay, Millenium, 2 Sigma, Elliot, DE Shaw, etc all trade on far smaller time horizons than people on /smg/ do, i get your point. Some of these guys just feed tick data into Neural Network/LSTM's and find alpha that way.


But do you not understand that ELS funds like Aristides Capital (run by an actual aspergers tranny) use both quant / data science methods while ALSO being long/short funds who trade on broad time horizons.

You fail to understand that portfolio management for ELS funds (who use fundamentals and trade on broad time horizons) ALL use data science techniques to minimize sortino/sharpes.

You seem like you are relatively well-read, but you also do not understand what the fuck a market maker is. RenTech is not an MM, just lmao.

Please do not make me type out posts as long as this because i cannot help myself but correct you when you say outlandish shit like "Renaissance is just the most successful market maker" when that is not even nearly close to what their strategy

Please tell me what on earth you think a "market maker" is without sounding like some reddit wsb schizo

[Anonymous No.52892236]

>Silbergade

[Anonymous No.52892238]

>>52892151
Hi Powell

[Anonymous No.52892253]

>>52892126
show me their benchmarked performance beating the s&p 500 on a 10 year basis. None of those firms beat the market. professional finance is a joke

[Anonymous No.52892257]

>>52892168
>I am a shit trader, but I am decent at analyzing companies.
You did a good job shilling JXN. I liked that one. Pretty sure that was you.

[Anonymous No.52892259]

https://www.cboe.com/us/options/market_statistics/daily/
> INDEX PUT/CALL RATIO 1.40
> EQUITY PUT/CALL RATIO 0.73
> SPX + SPXW PUT/CALL RATIO 1.64

Let's see. Big boys made incredibly bearish bets today while Reddit made extremely bullish calls. I wonder who's going to win?

[Anonymous No.52892273]

>>52892169
I mean, you might be able to apply investing to a big 'ol algo, but arbitrage is so much easier and consistent with a computer program.

[Anonymous No.52892274]

>>52892259
that's interesting
index puts has been ticking up for many days in a row consecutively now
the big spike in calls for individual equities is interesting - retail buying the dip on individual stocks with calls while the pros are buying index puts

[Anonymous No.52892283]

>>52892259
What makes you say Reddit is long calls?

Are they buying up this scam bank Silvergate?

[Anonymous No.52892287]

>>52892253
Alright, you win. Quant funds have been outperformed by passive indexers.

Now show me ELS discretionary funds who are stuck on Excel spreadsheets vs quant funds.

It is an apples to oranges comparison (HFT vs long term horizon ELS).

I get your point: that quant funds generally trade on smaller time horizons that don't even come close to how long ELS funds hold positions.
But quant TECHNIQUES are being pervasively used by ELS funds for portfolio management

Here's another tidbit of career alpha for those who want a career in finance: do this coursera specialization

https://www.coursera.org/specializations/investment-management-python-machine-learning

[Anonymous No.52892306]

>bill passed to fund government through next year at the last fucking minute
Big pump tomorrow hope you closed your fucking shorts with a nice profit during that fat dump yesterday, you fucking idiots.

[Anonymous No.52892310]

>>52892257
Yeah I am the JXN shill , and frankly embarassed about it. The reason I do not like JXN that much is because Wall Street is clearly avoiding buying it since insurance company's are required to have statutory capital on hand. In other words, they are literally not able to invest any of their cash they just hoard as an insurance co.

I guess the Street doesn't like that. It's why insurance companies trade at such low P/E multiples.

I should have known this when it comes to insurance companies - it is such a basic compliance hallmark

[Anonymous No.52892330]

>>52892225
Yes they don’t function in a maker taker delta 0 environment as a traditional market maker, but identifying specific underlying ratio imbalances and completely hedging out any sort of underlying risk besides the single ratio they are targeting is extremely MM like behavior, they just want to remain delta one not nuetral. From what I understood from my reading on Ren is that their big breaks in the early days came overwhelmingly from arbing the underlying stocks in the index for multiple ratio imbalances, and between other indexes. It’s extremely market maker like behavior just arbing the alpha of countless instruments all day while hedging to strip everything else down to as close to zero as it can go. Im damn sure they make the market for multiple equities too.

[Anonymous No.52892332]

>>52891579
Do you think the markets are on the same path like they were in 1929 and 2008?

https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1603551181866995712

[Anonymous No.52892334]

>>52892287
I have no idea what any of that means, I'm just confused as to why wallstreet spends so much money just to end up losing to the market.

[Anonymous No.52892353]

>>52892273
Sure, but that’s barely finance. It’s a business model that’s held afloat by privileged trading in private pools and gate keeping order books, anything held together with fanatic anti-consumerism is bound to die.

[Anonymous No.52892357]

>>52892306
Nuuuuuuuuuuuuu

[Anonymous No.52892358]

>>52892330
>hedging out any sort of underlying risk besides the single ratio they are targeting is extremely MM like behavior,
No.

delta neutral strategies have literally been used since the inception of equity options, for prop funds.

Pls don't take this wrong way, since you obviously read & do your research, but you have a total misunderstanding of how hedge funds who operate on miniscule time horizons in the HFT space like RenTech operate.

They analyze a bunch of quant signals en-masse over a wide universe of equities and commodities (e.g. high volume producing momentum over last 3 trading days, short interest moving baskets of stocks, growth factor outperforming in the last 4 days, etc.).

Then, they score these signals, and a master arbiter weights each of these strategies which then become trades. Simple models and signals, but a thousand simple models make one complex model. This is why back in the 2000s it took them almost 2 weeks for RenTech to figure out why they were losing too much money (normally, debugging a model takes less than a day; it should be evident why a strategy fails) since they had to deconstruct the master model and figure out which constituent minor models were responsible for losses.
FWIW, It turned out that they were betting too much on momentum at the time.

RenTech's flagship fund, Medallion, bets mostly on commodities these days (by Simons’ admission). I think coffee futures are a popular weapon of choice for them (of course not the only instrument that they trade).

They’ve also invested (pun intended) years of work into closing the gap between theory and practice, that is, a backtested model may illuminate profitable strategies, but when executed in the market, it falls short.
They called this “the devil”; you might recognize this in other terms like “slippage”. Over time they’ve acknowledged the risks of slippage and have confined themselves to trading strategies that are attractive in theory AND in practice.

[Anonymous No.52892369]

Really hope ID: T/chdx0C does not get angry at me for saying he misunderstands delta neutrality and its lack of causality with being a Market Maker feature

[Anonymous No.52892377]

We dumping tomorrow?

[Anonymous No.52892397]

>>52891640
>minimum wage
>20k
>bought stocks instead of learning a skill that allows you to earn more
Your fault for being a lazy fuck who believes in easy routes.

[Anonymous No.52892403]

>>52892332
>some fag on the internet predicted the next big crash
Yeah okay.

[Anonymous No.52892412]

>>52892369
>>52892358
I don’t get angry. Explain to me then, my sum of understanding is that being a market maker is implicitly linked to being an overall delta neutral portfolio, you make offers on both sides of the spread for any asset and just immediately take the opposite side of any trade you make to lock in the taker profit. You’re entire goal as a broker or other entity making a market is to remain delta nuetral and collect your fee. This has been morphed in the modern era as well into volume kickbacks for certain entities.

My understanding also those sub models of medallion is that when they identify that trade, they take a position and simply hedge out exposure to anything but their intended ratio.

[Anonymous No.52892434]

One day Peter Schiff will be right.

[Anonymous No.52892455]

>>52892434
Somehow I doubt it.

[Anonymous No.52892458]

A pivot is right around the corner, my fellow apes!

Didn't you catch Jerome's rythmic tapping at FOMC?

It was really code for P-I-V-O-T.

[Anonymous No.52892468]

>>52892434
Wasn't he supposed to be right in 2008?

[Anonymous No.52892477]

>>52892412
market makers are not in the role of predicting directions, they pocket transaction cost, bid ask spreads, and vol is their friend.

That is simply what a market maker does. Renaissance does much, much more than that the fact that they trade mostly commodities means they couldn’t give less of a shit about delta gamma hedging for equities.
market makers try to keep Delta neutral but they have to keep adjusting their Delta, and that is the one commonality MM’s have with a gorillion other hedge funds trying delta neutral strategies who do nothing similar to what Market Makers do


Stop conflating market making with run of the mill delta gamma hedging that everyone and their mother has been doing for decades in the wall st quant space

[Anonymous No.52892489]

Lol. They don't know about AVXL.

[Anonymous No.52892502]

>>52892412
>you make offers on both sides of the spread for any asset and just immediately take the opposite side of any trade you make to lock in the taker profit.
What the fuck man

I know you're not dumb but this is just Reddit nonsense. This is absolutely not how MM's operate, especially not given how variable greeks are depending on tenor.

ughhh. hedging varies sooo widely by tenor. each MM has their own model for that as well

[Anonymous No.52892508]

https://twitter.com/StealthQE4/status/1603136480611733509

Happening

[Anonymous No.52892514]

>>52892377
Anon...

[Anonymous No.52892515]

>>52892334
Well, there's the whole passive vs active investing debate.

when the market is great, passive seems to win. but when the market goes poo poo like rn,active hedge funds with discretionary strategies and lots of autism win

[Anonymous No.52892522]

>>52892508
>THE FED FOLLOWS THE BOND MARKET!!!!
where is that dumb fucking retard. 5.xx% through 2023 you stupid NIGGER. I fucking told you

[Anonymous No.52892551]

even the indians on my street have lights up for the holidays but the euros next to me haven't decorated... fucken typical

[Anonymous No.52892574]

so I should just open short tomorrow morning then.

[Anonymous No.52892586]

I miss scoopsies. I mean a lot. He's my everything. He's the reason I get out of bed every day. Once I saw him flex that cute little tranny bicep. I knew I had to have him. Scoopsies, are you out there?

[Anonymous No.52892598]

i went to qfc tonight and bought a case of shit beer, felt like poemanon

[Anonymous No.52892615]

What should I be doing now?

[Anonymous No.52892616]

>>52892168
well your vvix ranting was right, the vix spiked momentarily for CPI.

right now I'm a bit sus of everything though. put/call ratio is trading like a shitcoin. VIX is trading like a shitcoin, pretending like everything is fine. i'm putting less weight on these ephemeral indicators.
bond market pretending rates won't go up. either yields have to go up pretty soon, or a catastrophe has to happen, because that's what its pricing in, right?

right now the market is pretending we can handle higher rates, and that we can't, at the same time.it's gotta give soon.

i'll leave the hidden tigers an offering of tuna casserole. come out kitties....

[Anonymous No.52892629]

>>52892615
getting ready for bed time. Its almost time for the Friday covering

[Anonymous No.52892679]

>>52892616
They'll pause rate hikes until people riot over inflation. Drugs, porn, videogames gives them a nice social buffer.

[Anonymous No.52892682]

>>52892489
we do now, i'm going all in thanks

[Anonymous No.52892695]

>>52892586
You need to be baker acted
>t. Floridian

[Anonymous No.52892715]

>>52892682
ANON NOOOOOOOOOO THE PHASE 3 SUBGROUP DATA FOR THEIR ALZHEIMER'S STUDY IS COMING OUT SOO-ACK

[Anonymous No.52892717]

Thread theme:

https://music.youtube.com/watch?v=MBbS-Ps0cJ0&feature=share

[Anonymous No.52892723]

>>52891579
the jew fears this chart

[Anonymous No.52892732]

>>52892502
So how does it work for 0dte? Couldn't care less about longer term really.

[Anonymous No.52892733]

Send help
I just started spending money on vidya instead of stocks, too much on sale for the switch

[Anonymous No.52892741]

go ahead

take it to the lows again

i'll just buy more semiconductor stocks

and i'll hold

either im right or society collapses and we're all dead.

im good either way.

[Anonymous No.52892749]

>>52892741
The world had a billion people before microelectronics anon.

[Anonymous No.52892764]

>>52892741
You forgot option 3:
>the world collapses and people finally get so mad that they expel the jews and a second Renaissance begins

[Anonymous No.52892766]

>>52892741
gladly

[Anonymous No.52892770]

>>52892741
What if there's a slowdown for multiple years? Even if you're right it wouldn't be worth bagholding for years. Semis are still at insane values.

[Anonymous No.52892782]

>>52892770
they're the most important technology in the world and will only grow in demand over time. they're mainly fucked right now because of temporary world events. events that will either be resolved or we all get nuked.

[Anonymous No.52892801]

>>52892782
>>52892770
also, to a certain degree: it's in God's hands. maybe you're right. maybe God wants me to be poor for multiple years. i don't worry about things outside of my control. maybe it'll just be a hard lesson to learn for me that will help me grow as a man in the world, but i really doubt it. it helps having a great career in electrical engineering with a recession-proof job.

[Anonymous No.52892812]

Hey /smg/!
My wife thinks you NEETs and option gamblers are scum, but she wanted to sing a song for you. Maybe it will help.

https://music.youtube.com/watch?v=XdWh7yD-AL8&feature=share

[Anonymous No.52892826]

>>52892782
you keep posting this, and everyone keeps saying you are wrong. Everyone needs oil for the past 100-200 years, why isnt oil the only thing any one invests in?

[Anonymous No.52892834]

>>52892782
Is this the lumposter? Lmfao

[Anonymous No.52892835]

>>52892812
you owe me money you fat piece of shit

[Anonymous No.52892839]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nPe_UWLrfvg
THIS SHIT HOT

[Anonymous No.52892878]

>>52892006
Maybe if employers paid a livable wage this wouldn’t be an issue. I put plenty of effort into my job that pays 50k a year, I used to work for a quarter of that and quit pretty quickly.

[Anonymous No.52892902]

>>52892782
Stop
Stop
Just fucking stop
Please stop listening to semiconductor baggies who do not understand how beta / macro Econ works

[Anonymous No.52892917]

ill buy soxl at 7 dollars any day all day

[Anonymous No.52892931]

There's never going to be a pivot in the next couple years. Wouldn't be surprised if rates have to be kept high for the next decade. Inflation has supposedly slowed but it's getting warped by falling retail sales and housing. The core of the current inflation trend is in food. We had a MASSIVE food supply shock in 2022, and that's going to happen again next year, and again after that unless something radically changes policy-wise (it wont).

You are living in the fantasy land of a persistent optimistic outlook. We're trying to solve supply side shortages with policy targeting the demand side, which in the next decade wont be enough, but it might, MIGHT stabilize us short term. Rate hikes will always be preferable to households going insolvent, always. Consider yourselves the casualty, but I have no sympathy for anyone who's lost money this year. The US and indeed the world is going to get strangled into oblivion in the next decade, it's going to be hilarious to watch.

[Anonymous No.52892932]

Guys I just realized everyone needs food to live. Invest in food companies. I am a genius

[Anonymous No.52892938]

>>52892931

[Anonymous No.52892958]

>>52892932
>>52892938
Why wouldn't you post the speech bubble first? You just chinlet bubbled yourself fool.

[Anonymous No.52892961]

> futures

[Anonymous No.52892967]

>>52892917
If you like SOXL at 7 you’ll LOVE is at 3!

[Anonymous No.52892971]

>>52891837
What will you do when you shut the cleaning business down

[Anonymous No.52892970]

would you buy?

[Anonymous No.52892977]

>>52892970
Depends on what it is

[Anonymous No.52892981]

>>52892977
Chinese Solar and Semiconductor shit

[Anonymous No.52892983]

>futures

[Anonymous No.52892989]

>>52892958
Hey yeah! What a RETARD! He has beclowned himself!

[Anonymous No.52893003]

>>52892902
kek dont listen to this guy he's BROWN
buy SOXL leaps

[Anonymous No.52893004]

>>52892981
JKS? I am surprised it held up this year despite everything.

[Anonymous No.52893013]

>>52892981
Doesn't look and sound good even for swinging

[Anonymous No.52893031]

>>52892931
I also find it hilarious how economists, retards, bankers and pseuds in general are comparing this to the 80s without exactly understanding why the 80s were the way they were. The inflation of the 80s was primarily driven by Arab oil embargoes causing a massive crunch in the petrol supply. Once the embargo was lifted (they shouldn't have) it all bounced back in a couple years to business as usual. We're seeing the exact same supply side woes in a different category, problem is that food production in 2022 is extremely inelastic. Another reason why you're all living in a fantasy is that beef prices at the moment are artificially suppressed by the extraordinary high rate of cattle slaughter in the US which happened this year. That supply is gonna take years to a decade to recover if it ever will entirely.

Cant wait for inflation to creep back up around March (or even sooner) and the financial world is going to scream its head off as the meager seasonal boost in retail sales (driven by gen Z living with their parents kek) starts to wear off.

[Anonymous No.52893053]

>futures

https://youtu.be/jCOUqdbCEaQ

[Anonymous No.52893061]

>>52892826
It figuratively is. Oil has been one of the top investments this year, and world governments are obsessed with oil to the point where governmental collusion to control oil prices has been one of the more important political factors over the last 50 years. Also, we're constantly overrun with faggots telling us about how semiconductors are nectar and ambrosia.

Too bad semis probably won't get any respect in the market until a bull market comes along, and a bunch of semi companies are very capital intensive, which the market is allergic to.

>>52892981
>Chinese
>Chinese semiconductors
Have fun getting caught in the middle of a catfight between the two most powerful governments.

[Anonymous No.52893076]

>>52891825
How is he doing that???

[Anonymous No.52893106]

No way we go lower, we legally can't. Honestly think we make a huge reversal into EOY and retest ATH.

[Anonymous No.52893135]

>we will raise by 50 bps.
>we will continue to raise rates in 2023
>fed raises by 50 bps
>says they will continue to raise in 2023
>aaaaahhh jesus christ wtf!? How?!! Seelllll!!

Why?

[Anonymous No.52893160]

>>52891693
Whenever they say sports are rigged, I chuckle remembering all the life threatening injuries sustained throughout the years. I mean It’s true, so I wonder how the players react when they get the news that they have to bust their skulls open.

[Anonymous No.52893172]

how do we fix intel

[Anonymous No.52893176]

>>52891693
Tell that to my redskins. One of the biggest markets in all of sports. Not in the nfl. In ALL OF SPORTS. And nothing for 3 decades. Fuck rig schizos

[Anonymous No.52893192]

>>52893135
Nobody will remember about this in a year when SPY is at 450. Market is volatile on fed days but in a long run everything is stable.
I'd like to remind everyone that bobos shorted in October claiming SPY is going to 200

[Anonymous No.52893200]

>>52892834
no but he's right
>>52892902
it's susceptible to macro environment like almost everything else, but semiconductor demand is only going to go up (exponentially) in the coming years, especially when macro headwinds are gone
>>52892770
SOX p/e is less than SPY p/e
>>52892981
do not buy chinese semiconductors their market was gutted by US restrictions

[Anonymous No.52893210]

>>52893135
They didn't believe the fed and tried to fight it.

[Anonymous No.52893222]

>>52893210
Yeah the horror of market dropping 3%. How will we ever recover.

[Anonymous No.52893223]

>>52893135
I like the crackpot hypothesis by one anon in a previous thread. The hedge funds are just playing with their customers' money and if they lose they can just blame the Fed and recession, but their customers will never let them off if they miss the bottom so they have to slurp every time

[Anonymous No.52893226]

>>52893200
>semiconductor demand will only go up
>in the same post, mentions removal of chink demand
Lol. The lumposter. Has lost a lot. Of money.

[Anonymous No.52893241]

>>52893226
i've lost less money than my after tax 2 week paycheck
it isn't chink demand that was gutted, it was their manufactures losing access to critical parts. the tech is borderline alien and the bug people won't be able to replicate it.

[Anonymous No.52893283]

>>52893241
Unrealized losses are still losses, but i expected this low iq cope anyways

[Anonymous No.52893285]

>>52893192
i was there. fucking bears man

[Anonymous No.52893287]

>>52893210
Believe the Fed? You mean when they said inflation was transitory? When they forecasted they would raise rates twice by 25 bps in 2022? The Fed is almost always wrong. But now you believe them. The bond market is signalling the Fed will be cutting in 2023.

[Anonymous No.52893288]

>>52893283
i realized my losses, i'm 100% cash. i have a little under 80,000 dollars in cash right now. i gave up trying to catch the falling knife and will use the 200 SMA strategy as god intended.

[Anonymous No.52893301]

>>52893192
You need to unironically check futures. And then zoom your chart out.

This bear market is just getting started. SPY 200 is very possible and it could be twenty years before SPY ever trades 450 again.

[Anonymous No.52893310]

Here’s a preview of CNBC tomorrow

[Anonymous No.52893316]

tommorow will start with a dump, and then end with a fuck you bobo pump

[Anonymous No.52893317]

>>52893287
First of all, it's not their fucking choice, and they can't see the future. Secondly, you're straight up wrong, the yield curve is absurdly inverted, indicating exactly the opposite of your suggestion.

[Anonymous No.52893325]

>>52893317
They will cut because of the impending Doom of the recession

[Anonymous No.52893333]

>>52893288
You lost way more than one paycheck my man. I know youre not making 5 figures per paycheck. Keep coping

[Anonymous No.52893339]

>>52893287
>The bond market is signalling the Fed will be cutting in 2023.
There he is. There he goes again. I fucking told you you were wrong. The bond market isnt the only one with power. The fed has the ability to lead markets just as markets have the ability to lead the fed. Stupid nigger

[Anonymous No.52893344]

>>52893316
I don’t think you fully appreciate the gravity of the OPEX tomorrow. Futures just broke down through 3900. This is gonna be 50BILLION in program selling at the open and cascading sell orders after that all the way to the close at which point another 100BILLION will be executed into the closing settlements.

Best bull case for tomorrow is down less than 2% by close cause if we are more than that going into the last fifteen minutes when the programs start running it’s gonna be an absolute free fall into the close.

[Anonymous No.52893349]

>>52893344
Yeah, selling puts before they expire worthless

[Anonymous No.52893351]

>>52893325
They literally intentionally caused the recession in order to pop the bubble and lower prices. Its a solution, not a problem.

[Anonymous No.52893352]

>>52893333
i sold 1500 shares of SOXL at 12.28, my average was about 14 dollars
you seem upset anon. it's just 4chan.

[Anonymous No.52893362]

>>52893344
nearly all algos dont run in times of uncertainty (freefalls) because it's no longer free money
good larping though

[Anonymous No.52893373]

>futures

[Anonymous No.52893378]

>>52893339
The fed does follow the bond market, rates are not at 5% anon you do know that right? Go short the bottom again you schizo

[Anonymous No.52893379]

>>52893352
You didnt sell at 72 and the first chance you said you did was around 45 if i remember correctly. Why are you trying to lie? Its just 4chan. I lost like 70k unrealized gains, just own up to it

[Anonymous No.52893382]

>>52893362
They have to. The contracts need to settle. There is a settlement at the cash open and one at the close. It has to happen. It’s also when funds (pensions, 401ks and the like) programs run big blocks. Why do you think there is always most of the volume at open and close? besodes market structure and standard settlements most funds legally have to make certain trades per their charters for balance.

[Anonymous No.52893391]

>>52893378
Keep believing the dot plot is a lie just like the bond market. Im sure this time youre correct and powell is lying about being hawkish this time. The ten year has topped. Go long. :^)

[Anonymous No.52893395]

Eehmm OIL sisters what the fuck just happened?

[Anonymous No.52893397]

I told you niggers 2 days ago to sell everything and go all in VIXM. You mocked me. You called me faggot and nigger. You impuned my intelligence. WHERE IS YOUR GOD NOW?? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHHAAH

[Anonymous No.52893400]

>>52893378
>The fed does follow the bond market
No.

[Anonymous No.52893407]

>>52893397
It’ll come back.

[Anonymous No.52893409]

I will be making quite a bit of money over the next 2-3 months bobros

[Anonymous No.52893411]

>>52893391
Most bears have been predicting black Monday every Monday, for the last 45 weeks, and the spx going down 50% this year. Yet we're down 17% 12 months into a bear market. The dot plot from last year was a lie though it completely did not come true. The fed is horrible at forecasting
>>52893400
You don't even know what a bond is anon who are you kidding. A recession does not mean a depression, take your meds.

[Anonymous No.52893429]

>>52893407
>>52893397
At least I tried

[Anonymous No.52893432]

>>52893397
VIXM has barely budged this week compared to the size of the swing. Probably because it's already at 30 and spot vix has a lot of catching up to do.

[Anonymous No.52893434]

>>52893411
The dot pot has been adjusted to be more hawkish because inflation was stickier than expected. Give me some reasons why you think the current dot plot might be not pricing in cuts despite the fed literally saying they wont be cutting until the labor market, which is even stickier than inflation, finally loosens. We are literally at historically low unemployment as of today after a fucking year of hikes
I shorted at 396 and 403. Seethe. I dont care about flash crashes because i know the direction is dow and my puts are 5 months out and for $370.

[Anonymous No.52893439]

>>52893432
That's why I suggested calls. Also we have a lot further to go just you watch grasshopper

[Anonymous No.52893464]

>>52893439
Then VIX calls would have been better. Can't even check the prices on the VIXM calls this week because there's 0 volume in all of them. Just admit you outsmarted yourself and picked the wrong instrument for your long vol play.

[Anonymous No.52893469]

>>52893379
no i didn't sell at 72 and i sure as fuck didn't buy there either. all my buys before this crash happened were low 30s upper 20s. i sold in the 60s when we had the blow off top. tried to catch a falling knife, gave back gains, followed the 200 SMA strategy, tried to catch a falling knife again in the teens, gave up, lost some money, and here i am today. didn't lose anywhere close to five figures. can probably go dig in the archives if you really care that much.

[Anonymous No.52893475]

DAX Shorter chads report in


Hipe you didnt close those shorts on the fake rally

[Anonymous No.52893478]

Never gonna listen to these permastockbulls on /biz again. Absoluteley clueless faggot hodlers. I was shorting DOW at that Scamwick 34500-800 and I didn't stay in. "Recession is the bottom" blablabla, fuck off, lost the chance for gains. I will always keep shorting stocks, worthless trash.

[Anonymous No.52893480]

>>52893469
If you held shares at 72 and didnt sell you lost those gains. You lost that money. Youre so dumb

[Anonymous No.52893482]

>>52893480
i sold before it hit 72. i sold in the 60s.
>If you held shares at 72 and didnt sell you lost those gains
you don't actually look at investing like that right? you are going to get absolutely heemed with that mindset.

[Scoopsicus, The Black !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.52893485]

just wanted to share my new favorite meme of all time.
Fuck META.

[Anonymous No.52893497]

>>52893485
META is myspace 2.0 my nigguh

[Anonymous No.52893501]

>>52893464
It was a suggested tailored for /smg/ most of whom trade only equities on shit brokers like Robingoy. In my account I went long VIXM shares, shorted some SVXY shares to take advantage of the volatility decay tailwinds inherent in inverse VIX ETFs, went long several VSTOXX contracts (European VIX which pumped harder) in my futures account, and longed some VIX index calls in my other account. I'm well positioned and have profited handsomely.
I worry about giving trade calls on /smg/ since people are so eager to fuck up even the easiest trades hence I only suggest equities and only longs. When I like the direction of volatility I stick to mid-term and unfortunately VIXM is the only game in town. I would never suggest UVXY or UVIX on here since even when you're right inevitably /smiggers/ would somehow mistime it and lose money and then blame me. So mid-term VIX ETNs is the only way to go. I felt pretty good about this dump going into the FOMC meeting so went out on a limb and suggested calls. True VIXM is not an ideal instrument and I wish /smg/ would man up and collectively open a futures account so we could all make bank together but you gotta work with what you have

[Anonymous No.52893513]

seriously why are futures shitting so much?

[Anonymous No.52893526]

>>52893434
And... Most inflation metrics show inflation coming down at an accelerating rate, 5 year expectations are still low as well. Jpow even acknowledged this, but they have to jawbone being very hawkish to keep financial conditions tight to do the longterm job, the bond market sees through this because they negotiate yields based on inflation+growth expectations. Nick Timaros asked Jpow about 25 bps next meeting and it sounds likely, especially if CPI comes in better than expected.

[Anonymous No.52893553]

>>52893513
Because the market is still massively overvalued and the whole system is shidding and farting for myriad reasons. The real economy is total fucked and there is no easy way to fix it.

[Anonymous No.52893583]

>>52893553
Would fixing the economy involve a genocide? Is that why it won’t be easy?

[Scoopsicus, The Black !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.52893585]

>>52893497
>META is myspace 2.0
Facebook is myspace 2.0, yes, absolutely.
I have absolutely zero clue why I ever thought that it could possibly be anything more than that.
The “metaverse” on the other hand absolutely is not; it’s just a very very overpriced heap of absolute garbage.

[Anonymous No.52893590]

>>52893513
More uncertainty. Bond market is calling the FED out, but the FED has been unanimous with their making it seem like they are serious. A credit event is almost guaranteed at this point and we're not sure if the FED will be so fast to turn the printers back on or make us feel the pain.

Also why risk anything when short term bills are fucking 5%?

[Anonymous No.52893596]

>>52893583
Partly yes. Buy also there just aren’t people going into trades in sufficient rates anymore or even generally wanting to work much at all. Covid showed many people they’d be happier with less money and more free time than just working all their lives to have more money and that’s not going away anytime soon.

[Anonymous No.52893598]

>>52893590
5% is less than inflation youre locking in a loss with short term bills

[Scoopsicus, The Black !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.52893607]

>>52893513
bro, just because the hikes are slowing doesn’t mean that the hikes are fucking DONE.
This is clearly not effectively grasped by the uneducated masses
So much shit is going to hit the fan after we get another one or two hikes.

I really think the layoffs are going to get much worse. We’re going to start to see some legit bankruptcies, maybe some zombie companies like SNAP will finally go under.
The bloodbath is only just beginning.

[Anonymous No.52893618]

>>52893598
So are you holding SPY with 2% divvy that can potentially drop another 50%

[Anonymous No.52893619]

>>52893475
2x in 3 days lmao. Germany is dying. 10k is the bottom

[Anonymous No.52893627]

>>52893607
we will hike until stuff breaks. Then we got a reason why we're all poor now. And we will totally have forgotten WHO told us to invest at the top of the bubble and WHO created it

[Anonymous No.52893639]

going to attempt to buy this call for 1 dollar

[Anonymous No.52893644]

>>52893475
I'm long VSTOXX contracts. Does that count me as a fellow chad?

[Scoopsicus, The Black !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.52893646]

>>52893627
>hinting at the nosenbergs
there’s nothing more based than blaming our problems on the jews

[Anonymous No.52893659]

I don’t care about equity indiced. I care about VIX. Vol products.

Tell me what VIX and VX futures will do.

Then we’ll discuss equities

Are the bastard bhenchodes going to sell SPY puts on a VIX pop?

The market is sort of under hedged rn

[Anonymous No.52893672]

>>52893659
I mean the people who VRP harvest (sell SPX / SPY puts) might get aggressively burned in coming weeks

I personally have some short SPY puts at 370 zone

Hedged with some vol products like VIX ETNs

[Anonymous No.52893691]

>>52893607
Oh I know that 2023 is gonna suck major dick through a straw.

I'm prepping for the recession, maybe depression even.

[Anonymous No.52893704]

>>52893672
The way I see it is that if SPY hits 375ish in the next few days, all of the degenerate SPX/SPY put selloooors who cannot stop VRP harvesting (this is literally like 25% of equity hedge funds who need to fix their sharpe ratio with bullshit SPX put selling strats and collars, etc)


But the thing is guys

When those short put SPX guys buy-to-close their puts

The market is going to start going bagongas again, and we’ll see VX catch bids

And then we will get heavy heavy bobo posting. Like -4% SPY days again

Put sellers are basically the the only thing keeping this market from being relatively stable because put selling improved hedge fund sharpes a lot (heard some CTA talk about this at a conference I obviously am not a hedgie I’m on 4chan)

When put sellers decide to close their positions we’re gonna see SOXL hit $2

[Anonymous No.52893765]

>>52893659
I can't fathom how VIX is as low as it is considering what's coming. Long /VX contracts is the 200 IQ play without question. I can't put a finger on why this irrational pumping has happened multiple times this year like we saw in August and what happened in the runup to this latest FOMC but JPow has been very straightforward on his plans there will be rape hikes until unemployment goes up and inflation hits 2%. Period end of story. This means recession is guaranteed, equities will plummet and volatility will go nuts. Yet here we are with the DOW having pumped 20% in the last 2 months. WTF is wrong with people? And how is this not the easiest most obvious trade of all time? Sell your equities and buy volatility. Make money. When the VIX gets over 30 start thinking about lightening up on the vol contracts and getting into equities for the next irrational pump. If you need a softball equity to enter think about XLV, the healthcare sector which will weather the storm better than probably anything including staples and utilities. Just my 2c

[Anonymous No.52893770]

>>52893704
Bruh, if I sell puts, I don’t buy to close them, that’s degenerate gambling pleb tier shit. I roll, and if I can’t, I take the hit and sell calls. How hard is that?

[Anonymous No.52893778]

>>52893770
Ok Tom sosnoff no one falls for your “Le roll Le spread out arbitrarily until you get fucked 4x in a row from gamma” strategies

[Scoopsicus, The Black !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.52893785]

>>52893691
>I'm prepping for the recession, maybe depression even
I landed 6 different job offers in the spring.
Instead of taking the highest paying offer, I went with the company that has a track record of never doing a layoff anytime in the past 25 years.
Literally all 4-5 of the other companies that I turned down offers from have already had layoffs since then — Snapchat, Oracle, Microsoft, DocuSign

[Anonymous No.52893789]

>the naked AMC call seller is back to tell us how our 5-6 figure portfolios should have good sharpe ratios and put sellers are propping up the market
lmfao

[Anonymous No.52893796]

>>52893765
Nah nah we’ve been over this. Has the outperformance of IV generally moved from the back months to the front month?

Is there a way to determine if the IV term structure is too steep and if forward vol is “miss priced”?

Almost all year, my long puts can’t seem to catch a volatility bid on the back months. I presume the influx of volume on the front month has something to do with this.

It’s not so much whether the “slope of the term structure” is high but *which parts* of the term structure are swelling.


For example, backwardation inflates the front month IV so much that it makes the slope of the term negative. And here, for example, January is relatively more inflated with IV than February, an inefficiency which presumably will become normalized.

Tl:dr VIX and VX futes are not 200 IQ at all, just maybe 95-100 IQ

[Anonymous No.52893813]

>>52893778
Hey, I mean, whatever works. How does selling puts get you fucked by gamma exactly?

>>52893789
And who would that be.

[Anonymous No.52893814]

Whether back-month IV is misspriced arguably has much more to do with the tendency of it to catch a bid or not (vega convexity).

^this is massively important for the state of /smg/ shitposting and I’ll be repeating it s lot.

If back-month IV has been sluggish on the bid and continues to do so, then you’re mostly left with raw gamma without a vega boost.

[Anonymous No.52893823]

>>52893813
Selling options in general is short gamma. And when gamma ramps up, you get your face ripped off as >>52893789 this guy will tell you

[Anonymous No.52893839]

>>52893814
So it’s actually an absence of Vega causing Gamma to get you fucked, I see. What if you just, straight up, want the stock and selling puts is just a wish? Say for example, MCD?

[Anonymous No.52893848]

>>52893823
Well I won’t be selling anything naked either. Just spreads that become full blown ccp. Maybe it’s boomer-esque cope, but it’s worth a try.

[Anonymous No.52893850]

>>52893796
Dec VIX futes are lower due to seasonality (Santa rally).

[Anonymous No.52893867]

>>52893839
Buying stock and selling puts at the same time? That’s veryyy bullish!

It’s sort of the absence of Vega, but more specifically the absence of any real acceleration of Vega. That’s a fancy way of saying “catches a bid by a lot of people at once” because ultimately convexity of Vega on these options comes down to fucking buyers and sellers


That’s the whole thing about the black box of equity options. IV still comes down to buyers and sellers and you just can’t really predict that

[Anonymous No.52893883]

Will gold remain heavily correlated to stock indexes in near future?

[Anonymous No.52893887]

>>52893796
I never buy the front months since mistiming those is much too easy and as a retail trader I don't have access to whatever it would take to get it right consistently (I've tried). I do have a backtested system I use that works consistently using the 4th-9th months (March through August right now). My way of trading vol makes money in most market environments and only loses a little bit in ultra low vol times like we saw in 2017. I would short equities but there is the legit possibility catastrophic loss since you never know when the market could moon for some unknown reason. This means I would either have to put on a big hedge or use such a small size that it wouldn't be as worth it compared to just long vol. And I never short vol. That is a negative skew strategy that makes a little money for a while with high probability then suffers catastrophic loss like with XIV in 2018. Yes these trades can all be "managed" and made profitable but then you start introducing complicated rules and if-then scenarios that inevitably get you rekt eventually. Long vol unlike short equities is very predictable in how the trade can go against you. People don't like long vol because they don't trade it right and start looking at the UVXY chart thinking that's what long vol is all about but it isn't. Even the VIXM chart is just a blunt instrument, rolling 4th-7th month futures mechanically with no input from what's actually happening in the term structure

[Anonymous No.52893898]

>>52893850
He probably should have took a new screenshot. The term structure is a lot flatter since the selling started

[Anonymous No.52893899]

>>52891579
Does anybody know a swiss stock broker who supports an API and who supplies data? Or any other swiss resource that provides these two? I am swiss based and want to try my own quant thing. Pls no disencouragement.

[Anonymous No.52893901]

>>52893867
That’s why I’m doing basic selling, you can’t predict any of this shit, no matter how schizo you think your posts are. I’m actually trying to get a hundred shares of SPY so I can sell calls, I got 98 thus far, but it kinda hurts when we hit the tops and I can’t sell my precious calls anymore. I don’t think it’ll ever stay above $400, but just in case, I’ll try to sell calls at $450 instead if I can roll them up and out.

No matter what apocalypse happens, I will always be bullish on MCD, I just wish I had capital. So long as there’s idiots like pic related and American obesity prevails, MCD will always stand firm

[Anonymous No.52893911]

>META futes

Why?

[Anonymous No.52893914]

>>52893785
How did you find the trackrecord for company layoffs? Currently applying to new jobs and was wondering this. Thanks lad.

[Anonymous No.52893916]

>>52893899
I'm pretty sure Interactive Brokers has an API and works in Switzerland. You could try Amibroker, they definitely have an API and might work for you. I don't know of any brokers that are Swiss based with an API

[Anonymous No.52893918]

Just woke up. Why are we dumping?

[Anonymous No.52893932]

>>52893901
>I’m actually trying to get a hundred shares of SPY so I can sell calls
Have you considered selling enough shares to buy a deep ITM leap call and sell calls on that? If you go deep enough down the chain it'll be functionally equivalent to owning the stock since delta will be close to 1. There will be a small amount of leverage but you could just sell all of your shares and hold the equivalent amount of cash to make effective leverage 1x

[Scoopsicus, The Black !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.52893938]

>>52893914
if it’s a big company, then you just kinda know from anecdotes.
e.g. google has a reputation for taking care of their engineers, but I recall hearing that they completely blew out their recruiting department and fired every single recruiter that they had back in 2008.
another example: amazon had the fire phone disaster around 5-10 years back…
another: I think microsoft has actually had layoffs in recent years outside of the context of a recession going on.

[Anonymous No.52893949]

>>52893932
Nah, don’t feel like it. I also want those juicy dividends and I want to hold onto something solid, even if it seems like everything’s gonna fall apart.

I feel bad for those who bought LEAPS at above the $400 price, they must be shitting themselves.

I’ll see what I can do with MCD though, among others.

[Scoopsicus, The Black !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.52893950]

>>52893914
also, if the company is newer and has very un-diversified revenue streams, then it’s also a pretty obvious risk.
profitability is also a pretty big one.
> e.g. Snapchat, Docusign

[Anonymous No.52893960]

>>52893938
>>52893950
Thanks Scoop. I'll do my research.

[Scoopsicus, The Black !!DU22SQMj6dQ No.52893965]

>>52893950
>profitability is also a pretty big one.
A further note on this:
>it was well known within amazon that alexa was a huge cash sink and actively losing money instead of contributing to profit margins
>the recent amazon layoffs primarily impacted the alexa department

[Anonymous No.52893967]

>>52893949
>>52893932
Also, the way shit’s going, said LEAPS could be as deep as an ocean, but then Powell takes a shot and you’re left with puddles.

[Anonymous No.52893978]

>>52893950
>also, if the company is newer and has very un-diversified revenue streams, then it’s also a pretty obvious risk.
>profitability is also a pretty big one.
Now hold on there, what about exponential growth and new paradigms and e-thots day in the life tiktok posting? That's gotta count for something right? Right??

[Anonymous No.52893979]

>>52893949
why would any one who bought 400 leaps be shitting themselves? that's 1 year out

[Anonymous No.52893985]

>>52893813
>How does selling puts get you fucked by gamma exactly?
>I'll collect free money by selling deep out of the money puts! There's no way the market could move that much in one week.
Based on a true story.

[Anonymous No.52893986]

>>52893918
Jews, my friend… Jews.

[Anonymous No.52893997]

>>52893979
What if they bought those LEAPS at the top? They could’ve been deep ITM, like say, $380, and now all that is gone, you know? Even if they sell calls, they probably weren’t brave enough to go all the way with them and made Pennie’s back on the dollar. But this is just speculation, of an absolute worst case trading.

[Anonymous No.52894011]

Fuck me anyone else getting rekt by oil?

[Anonymous No.52894012]

SOXL to $7 EOY

[Anonymous No.52894026]

>>52893985
Yeah, I guess if you sold 0dte AMC puts when the short squeeze mania hit, you’d be pissed you didn’t make as much money as you could have. But at least you made some profits.

But are you referring to naked puts? What dumbass sells naked OTM puts in a bear market?

[Anonymous No.52894029]

>>52893985
As old as time. Nothing worse than being short options then the market moves against you then you roll and roll and.. roll then eventually you're selling leaps and you're long past actually making any real money either on the underlying equities or the options themselves so you get tired of the stress and cover the options.. JUST IN TIME FOR THE MARKET TO FULLY REVERSE IN THE OTHER DIRECTION
Selling options can work but it's not nearly as easy as the "just be the casino bro" option selling youtube gurus would have you believe. Easy to get sucked in though cuz the per trade success rate per trade is high so of course the trader starts doing it with more and more money until eventually they get really big and then the shitstorm starts eventually losing them all the gains and then some

[Anonymous No.52894037]

>>52894011
Jep

[Anonymous No.52894050]

>>52894011
ive been shorting oil for months (the stocks not the commodity). they're only recently starting to tank which kind of pissed me off.

the contango(?) was ridiculous

[Anonymous No.52894056]

>>52893997
You can buy March 2025 SPY leaps right now with a strike price of 180 and the spread is reasonably narrow so you can get in and out without much problem. Even if SPY dropped to 250 in the next year those leaps would still have deltas above 0.8

[Anonymous No.52894065]

>>52894056
>>52893997
And for what it's worth if you trade index options you can buy SPX leaps that expire in 2027. I imagine the present storm will have long passed by then

[Anonymous No.52894079]

>>52893997
4% is fucking nothing with the kangaroo market that's going on my man, I doubt anyone is sweating bear or bull at the moment. It's very much all up in the air. Most violent spikes have been on the bulls side so far, without a circuit breaker downward I'd say we're still bullish more than bearish.

[Anonymous No.52894089]

>>52894065
Pic related is the December 2027 SPX call option chain. That 400 strike at the bottom is the equivalent of buying a SPY leaps call with a $40 strike. If we get anywhere close to that it's because not only has there been an alien invasion there is an ongoing oppressive occupation as well. And the liquidity is plenty for a small trader

[Anonymous No.52894092]

>>52894065
>>52894056
I see, I’ll look more into them, but not with SPY, that’s the one I want solid shares on. Maybe I’ll do something similar with oil?

>>52894029
How do I avoid pitfalls?

[Anonymous No.52894094]

>>52893590
The market is misbehaving and its the feds job to correct it.

[Anonymous No.52894103]

>>52894094
Fuck the fed, just let the stock market blow off some steam. I swear the market’s so inflated, people are finding it on deviant art

[Anonymous No.52894117]

>>52894050
>for months
How deep in red are you anon?

[Anonymous No.52894129]

>>52894092
>How do I avoid pitfalls?
Well, anon, the bad news is imho you can't avoid them. Covered calls work until they don't. The problem is you are doing business with market makers and any call they sell you will have slightly negative expected value since that's the only thing they are in the business of selling and you aren't going to be doing business directly with other retailers. Some people get lucky selling covered calls for a long time and stop before something bad happens. Some people don't last more than a few months. I'm not going to completely discourage you from selling them or credit spreads or any other "insurance" but just know that the odds on every single trade are against you and no amount of trade management will change that since by necessity when rolling you are just closing one bad trade and opening another one with negative expected value. I wish it weren't like this but 99% of option selling educators are outright frauds and the rest are probably misinformed and naive. Give it a shot though since you have to learn this lesson the hard way. I wish you luck

[Anonymous No.52894131]

>>52894079
It’s 20% in my scenario l, when I said “top,” I meant the ATH.

>>52894089
Again, I’m gonna focus on smaller stocks for LEAPS, but is the price per cent or the total amount?

[Anonymous No.52894137]

>>52894117
i am up ~15%
added 20% to my short position a week or two ago

[Anonymous No.52894140]

>>52894129
Ok

[Anonymous No.52894142]

>>52894131
oh i thought you meant 400 leaps not 480 kek, yeah they're fucked. 500 is 2024 at the earliest

t. permabull

[Anonymous No.52894150]

>>52894131
>Again, I’m gonna focus on smaller stocks for LEAPS, but is the price per cent or the total amount?
My bad that option chain is 10x the price of spy so one 400 strike Dec 27th leap would cost $322,925 but you'd effectively get the gains from 1000 shares of SPY so it would be like buying 10 SPY leaps. Obviously not applicable to your situation. There are XSP options which are the same price as SPY options but those don't have 2027 expiration dates

[Anonymous No.52894151]

I love smallcraps no cap. Their futures were up .5% last night. Just like every nightm then in the morning its down in line with tech niggers.

[Anonymous No.52894168]

>>52894142
Just imagine the hedge funds and the poor retail traders shitting themselves in that scenario.

>>52894150
I see, thanks for clearing that up

The truth is, I lost more than I should have fucking around with iron condors and now I just want another steady source of income while also playing around with other stocks and options. Even if I’m getting screwed on each trade, if I can clear a certain amount, then I’ll be satisfied.

[Anonymous No.52894182]

>>52893513
Just cause

[Anonymous No.52894184]

>>52894129
this is why I sell calls on meme stocks only
I believe with no basis that MMs are unable to sell enough of those to meet demand, for obvious reasons
so I sell a (very very small) number of those
ive done it for two years now but its still likely that ive been lucky

[Anonymous No.52894197]

>>52894184
Is MCD a meme stock?

[Anonymous No.52894214]

>>52894197
the key indicator I use is appearances in r/shortsqueeze
it does not appear there so its followers are not deranged enough to get me shorting

[Anonymous No.52894227]

>>52894214
Ok then, do you think its users WORK there? That’s a bullish indicator if I’ve ever seen one

[Anonymous No.52894228]

>>52894026
If they're not naked, exactly what >>52894029 said. It can easily turn into holding massive bags. Holding them forever creates an opportunity cost by requiring cash to back them, and then there's crimes like VIX options losing money by rolling out, and early assignment (which is literally rape). Bagholders are likely to buy puts at inflated prices to hedge while the market is making an extreme move, and either doing that or buying back the original sold puts causes market maker gamma hedging to add more fuel to the move, compounding the problem.

As for which dumbass is doing it naked, we might find out in 2023.

For avoiding pitfalls, keep position sizes limited, have some spare capital, consider the worst case scenario before starting the trade, and have a hedge or a plan for dealing with it. Whatever method you use for damage control has to be implemented before the market goes into a batshit historic explosion, not after.

[Anonymous No.52894251]

>>52894228
Thanks for the insight.

[Anonymous No.52894262]

wtf happened? another -1% rug before markets even open

[Anonymous No.52894263]

>>52894182
he belongs in a fucking nursing home jesus

[Anonymous No.52894266]

today is going to be another -4% day huh

[Anonymous No.52894279]

>>52894266
Every day until this time next year. :^)

[Anonymous No.52894283]

>>52894214
I checked it out, and now I have a grasp for what it truly means to own a meme stock. Has anyone here successfully shorted a biotech stock though, they always seem to be on the verge of failure.

[Anonymous No.52894292]

I remember we had some bighead anons trying to sell puts on meme stocks to farm gamma or whatever. The idea was, when SPRT has jumped 1000% in two days or whatever, premiums are so insanely high that you can sell a deep OTM put and still get paid real money and it's unlikely to get exercised.
I sympathize with the idea, it sounds very elegant, but the puts got exercised and most of those anons lost money. They did it twice IIRC and then the strategy stopped showing up in these threads. It's anti-intellectual to say it but it feels like the kind of strategy you come up with when you let your head get too far up in the greeks and you forget the underlying.

[Anonymous No.52894298]

God I just want AMZN stock to dump below $80 by the end of December

[Anonymous No.52894313]

>>52894283
Shorting biotech without a hedge is very similar to selling naked calls. You will win 99% of the time, and the remaining 1% of the time they cure cancer and you get to work in the mines for the rest of your days because you doubted them
And the call options for hedging are expensive
But the pajeet has sold SAVA calls and so have I and we haven't gotten shot yet

[Anonymous No.52894323]

>>52894292
I remember that back in 2021 when the market was still going nuts and people were all in stuff like TQQQ and SOXL. Fun times. The poster used the trip vega_bro or something like that. May have been SOXL_shill

[Anonymous No.52894325]

Bond yields are waking up.
Small business pessimism is waking up.
Interest rates are waking up.
The labor market is about to die.

Run

[Anonymous No.52894333]

AHHHHH WHAT DID SCHWAB DO TO THEIR FUCKING WEBSITE IM GOING BLIND

[Anonymous No.52894339]

>>52894292
It probably is, you gotta want a stock if you’re gonna sell puts on it. And it seems like that kind of thing was just wishful thinking. If a penny stock shot up that much in a short span then just shot down, I’m not sure anyone would want to touch it afterwards.

[Anonymous No.52894345]

>>52894333
Gotta get the zoomers roped in and they like that kind of web """design"""

[Anonymous No.52894354]

>>52894323
People are starting to realize how much they actually don’t care about any of this crap and that they just wanted money

>>52894313
Excuse me, when I typed “short biotech” I meant implementing bearish strategies. I probably should’ve said. “Buy LEAP puts” or “sell call spreads” nothing too fancy

[Anonymous No.52894381]

Just to be clear if I were to sell today it would be the worst time to do it right? Surely next week will turn around.

[Anonymous No.52894394]

>>52894393
>>52894393
>>52894393
migrate smiggers
>>52894393
>>52894393
>>52894393

[Anonymous No.52894693]

> OIL
KEK BAGGGIIIIIIIEEES , I TOLD TO SHORT AT $77 BUT OIL SISSIES DIDNT LISTEN