/biz/ - Business & Finance

[Anonymous No.52846114]

Ok fags i know you won't believe me but i'm an insider in the FED. Stocktards thinks the cpi will be good and that the fed will eventually pivot. Nothing of this sort will happen. I already know the cpi figures and they don't look good, Powell will be forced to increase the rate increases instead of slowing down. Markets will collapse and keep going down untill the everything bubble pops. In regards to your crypto stuff, well you already know how correlated it is. The combination of binance investigation and a market down turn will lead bitcorn to 4 figures by eoy.

[Anonymous No.52846177]

>>52846114
you haven't even talked to someone whose in FED, have you? you're too incoherent and you're English is too shitty for being one of those people

[Anonymous No.52846189]

>>52846114
im an esl and my grammar is better than you

[Anonymous No.52846204]

>>52846114
I believe you. You're Charlie Munger, aren't you.

[Anonymous No.52846363]

>>52846114
Calling the central bank “the FED”.

You’re a dumb faggot

[Anonymous No.52846404]

>>52846114
>binance
Retard.

[Anonymous No.52846461]

>>52846114
>Stocktards thinks the cpi will be good and that the fed will eventually pivot.
Nobody thins this you dumb retard.
1. Most people expect the CPI to be on the ok-to-bad side not the "good".
2. Nobody expects a FED pivot in the short term. Ofc the FED will pivot eventually, it cant hike rates forever. But the only reason for the FED to pivot is a deep recession. If a deep recession is coming and the FED pivots because of it, market will collapse.
Everyone knows there is no "good" outcome here. The two options here are either:
1. collapse
2. stagflation for a year or more

also
>everything bubble
finish your highs school before posting, youtube is not education

[Anonymous No.52846571]

>>52846114
Jerome Powell will rugpull the entire global financial system.
Certainly it's bad, but the alternative is a bigger collapse down the line, with a bigger debt-load. The US gave the world its currency for 80 years (in exchange for real goods, hehe), now it's at least scaling down its experiment in global governance and letting the periphery die. If you're in a place like Lybia, Russia, Egypt, Pakistan, etc., you're FUCKED. You'd be fucked either way, but not to this degree.
I'm not sure whether he's actually schizoed himself into thinking that funding rates only affect investment or whether that's part of the indoctrination at central banker school, but bond dealers have capped balance sheets, so the liquidity in the bond market can go to 0 if they hit those due to everyone selling to get dollars, like they did in March 2020, when off-the-run treasuries held by governments had no bid. If the bond market becomes illiquid, then banks become illiquid and capital flow in the economy stops, which, if it occurs, will likely occur in a March 2020 style crisis, or because of the difficulty of foreign companies and governments servicing dollar debt (there being more servicing to be done because of said increasing funding costs). Independently of that, bond spreads blowing out can sink many large players, e.g. Germany-Italy, US-UK. The differential in cashflow between a 150BP spread and one with +200BP is unhedgeable, and either the people exposed to spread risk or the people who sold them some kind of insurance will go bust. Any of these scenarios can make contagion spiral out of control, and their probabilities are correlated.

[Anonymous No.52846628]

>>52846571
It's all fine and good to talk about high interest rates and shit, but there is a reason for interest rates to be low, and if Mr. Cent. Bankman-Fuck trials to dial them to an unnatural level, it's as bad as if he set the price of oil to whatever number he fancies. Aging demographics depress interest rates naturally because there are less consumers as the 20-30 age bracket shrinks and the economy becomes producer-heavy. As those in the 40-60 age bracket age out as well, the economy just becomes capital-heavy, meaning interest rates go down because of the competition for borrowers. As aging demographics plus a welfare system (in any form, as long as cash flows: 401K, Medicaid, EU pension schemes) also increase debt levels because their liabilities to pensioners become unfundable with the low average interest rate in the economy, but suppose you could make that problem go away. In that case, you could raise interest rates - however, we also have a huge need for capital expenditure in industrial production and logistics, which is becoming unaffordable. If prices for chips are going up because China has gone off the map and because there's no neon available for lasers, increasing the cost of capital will drive prices even higher, because companies can't get the funding to build out more supply of chips.
The "solution", if you wanted to keep this system going, would be to impose capital rationing where loans are allocated by strategic need instead of market interest rates, and there is a good chance we will see those in the coming years, but since the Fed has no mandate to do that, all they can do is fuck around with interest rates. The system's trajectory is starting to become terminal anyway, so I guess it doesn't matter too much whether the money hyperinflates right away or whether there's a deflationary liquidity crisis first.

[Anonymous No.52846664]

>>52846114
Prove it. Post a selfie of you with Powell's cock in your mouth.

[Anonymous No.52846667]

>>52846628
It matters if you're in the collapsing economy, of course.
Bitcoin (+ other cryptos, depending on your assessment of each one's viability) does serve as a hedge against both extreme deflation and extreme inflation. The price of course goes down in a deflationary environment, but only if volatility remains low. In a crisis, it'll skyrocket, however, and nobody except people with access to the Fed will be able to get dollars fast enough and default instead. At that point, dollars will become too scarce around the world to be useful, the "dollars" created by commercial banks having mostly defaulted too. Thus it won't be economically too useful and retreat to back to the US as well as a select few of its friends. In a hyperinflationary scenario, which might well occur in many places after the initial liquidity crisis, the benefit of BTC is obvious as well.

[Anonymous No.52846698]

>>52846114
Lastly, BTC implicitly functions as a CDS on governments (good luck getting an actual CDS payed out in case of government failure - the market for government CDS might as well not exist for all the good it'll do in a major crisis). You might think that the US is creditworthy despite the already occurred and to-occur fiscal spending, but how much trust do you put into the EU, whose central bank can't raise rates to 1% due to economies like Itally shitting and sharting all over itself? Or Putler's "government" of KGB geriatrics? Or the Argentine government? Unless you can get access to dollars - actual dollars, not unsecured bank debt in a "bank account" -, your best bet is Bitcoin in the coming ~10 years.

[Anonymous No.52847570]

CPI for all items rises 0.1% in November as shelter and food increase.
OP absolutely taken down

[Anonymous No.52847602]

>>52846177
He's talking about the Indian fed

[Anonymous No.52847615]

>>52846114
>>52846204
I still think OP was charlie munger but he was knowingly fud posting to shake us out

[Anonymous No.52847637]

>>52846177
heh no, that was the convincing part
the dumb part was that he thinks someone in the fed would have access to BLS data before its public, even though that's a felony
also now that the numbers are public and inflation softened across the board OP is confirmed a faggot too

[Anonymous No.52847673]

>>52846628
>but there is a reason for interest rates to be low
all these words and you're still just a retard who thinks rates should have ever been below 5% during the era of big tech waging a literal 5th generation war against the entire western world
what a fucking shame

[Anonymous No.52847835]

>>52847637
>even though that's a felony
when on earth has this stopped anyone from doing anything under any circumstances, especially our own appointed federal officials?

[Anonymous No.52848328]

>>52846114
based and mungerpilled