>There is nothing wrong with averaging into commodity etfs. They don't just go one direction forever.
Look man, I understand that if you martingale into a play, the likelihood of returning a profitable outcome increases massively. You're EV might even skew positive since mean reversion is part of the dynamic with these things.
However, if you do this, you'll also find yourself rapidly blowing past your Kelly number on an outsized move against you. Eventually you'll be all in. One single move against you and your account is gone - blown wide open.
There were many traders betting on oil back in March/April 2020. They thought that it had to turn around eventually. It did, naturally, but not before prices crashed negative, UWT (old leveraged oil ETF) declined 90% overnight and blew up every last one of them.
I've seen similar in other leveraged funds too like VIX, and while SOXL hasn't blown up yet, those slurpers from last december are still trying to average themselves out of an 80%+ loss.
So again, good luck to you. Regardless of your result, I'll have fun on the outside.
>You niggers have no suggestions or discussions about anything and just shit on everything that prints money
I suggested China stocks when there was that final dump as Xi officially came into permanent power. Still riding that trade. For the moment, I suggest tax loss harvesting and waiting until January for some actual good plays to show up. This isn't about me though. You brought up KOLD, so we're discussing it.