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52210911 No.52210911 [Reply] [Original]

There is much fagginess around a “pivot”, but here is reality:
>headline inflation is guaranteed to fall to about 3% this time next year
>multiple factors will result in a rapid drop, likely seeing 6.5% range in December.
>the worst is definitely behind us.
>supply chains are almost entirely back to normal
>inventory is climbing and retailers are going to have to get more competitive soon to shift it especially as people have less money
>fuel prices have been falling since may, and by next march they will be in an annual free fall by comparison.
>interest rates are 4% and climbing already
>housing is getting rapes finally and it is typically the item with the longest lag
>USD is strong, causing down pressure on domestic inflation


It’s unlikely we’ll see it get worse unless putin drops a nuke, and there is a cascade of items putting rapid down pressure on inflation starting from now.

Does it mean pivot? Probably not till Q2.

>> No.52210932
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52210932

>Dollar is strong
Do unitedstatians actually believe this?
jajajajajajajajajajajajjajajajahajajaja

>> No.52210939

>>52210911
The draining of the SPR ends right around election day, gas prices are going back up. The December CPI will show that inflation hasn't peaked yet.

>> No.52210961

Some, even many, of the things you listed are plausible, but that doesn't mean we bottomed. You see, the problem is that we were overvalued before. There is absolutely no conceivable reason SPY should have EVER gone above 350 at any point in the past 2 years. So we will continue dropping even as inflation corrects, until we reach nonretarded valuations.

>> No.52211125

>>52210932
Compared to every other currency, yes. How's the peso doing, Jorge?