CME futures trader- AMA

[Anonymous No.5166159]

I am a swing trader based out of Chicago. I have two years experience and I'm part of the commodities floor of my firm. I do the WTI/Brent crude oil analysis and some technical analysis.

AMA

>picture unrelated

[Anonymous No.5166230]

I hope you're heavily invested in LINK. It's the way of the future

[Anonymous No.5166248]

will bitcoin crash???????????????????

[Anonymous No.5166268]

>>5166159
traps gay?

[Anonymous No.5166273]

wat cme going do from my bit coins? am will be rich? bit coin will go 1 million yes?

[Anonymous No.5166297]

>>5166159
is smegma bad for your teeth?

[Anonymous No.5166317]

>>5166159
what TV is that?

[Anonymous No.5166346]

>>5166159
>>5166230
>>5166248
>>5166268
>>5166273
>>5166297

[Anonymous No.5166347]

>>5166159
whats your favorite indicators ? in which time ?

[Anonymous No.5166351]

>>5166159
What's the water-cooler gossip been about bitcoin? More like "hahahahahahah going to short this shit and buy more corn" or, very intellectual discussions on it's longevity?

[Anonymous No.5166379]

Do chemicals in the water really turn the frogs gay?

What is best pizza in Chicago?

[Anonymous No.5166401]

>>5166159
Is a career in finance still viable if you're not a PHD math/computer science type person?
What's your average day like? Exciting days?

[Anonymous No.5166423]

>>5166268

yes

>>5166273
>>5166248

It isn't likely that CME will affect the price of bitcoin at all.

People who genuinely have a lot of money can't really buy into bitcoin because their money can be hacked, or lost on one of these weird exchanges.

Some people thought that having a CME/CBOE futures contract would alleviate that issue, but at the end of the day, if these firms wanted to fundamentally short bitcoin to hell, it wouldn't necessarily make bitcoin plunge because they're selling the contract and not the actual bitcoin. AKA the futures are at the mercy of the exchanges, which a lot of the programming guys around here are pretty much positive are inflating the price of their coins.

[Anonymous No.5166451]

>>5166159
My job depends on the Brent crude price.

Will 2018 finally be a good year again?

[Anonymous No.5166551]

>>5166423
>AKA the futures are at the mercy of the exchanges, which a lot of the programming guys around here are pretty much positive are inflating the price of their coins.


>*prints 1B tether*

[Anonymous No.5166562]

>>5166347

Uhh genuinely the senior traders don't let us use indicators like MACD and RSI, even those are the most popular ones. They're lagging indicators and make you bet against the trend, which I can explain more if you want me to.

I use volume, 9/50/200 moving averages and draw out my own price supports/resistance levels.

That's about it, had to read a1000 page book on chart patterns too... I like to use Elliot wave.

I use 4 hourly and daily... sometimes 1 minute if I'm really bored, but anything smaller is not useful when trades last months.

[Anonymous No.5166584]

>>5166159
Why are you stealing my crypto tendies. GIVE THEM BACK

[Anonymous No.5166624]

What are the platforms that support the feature of going back in time and replaying past data to practice practice practice makes perfect? Sofar I only know of Sierra, Multicharts, and Ninja but they cost.

[Anonymous No.5166628]

>>5166423
So you think the price on actual bitcoin exchanges will drive the futures price, not the other way around? What do you mean the exchanges are inflating the price of their coins?

[Anonymous No.5166652]

>>5166562
which book ? i am very interest in techinical analysis. I have time if you want to say more, bro, thank you

[Anonymous No.5166713]

and are you guys only prop trading or do you also have guys doing market making?

[Anonymous No.5166759]

What is your opinion on BitMex?

Is this exchange designed for institutional investors?

[Anonymous No.5166770]

>>5166351

Upper level management has to take the position that it's not worth looking at right now. I've heard some big banks have a really small position in them, but banks like JP morgan have tons of divisions and they could all disagree with one another on if that's a good idea.

Me and some of the younger guys think it's ok, like one day Charles Schwab will say it's good to have .01% of any balanced portfolio as bitcoin.

>>5166401

I wanted to be a quant analyst doing programming when I graduated in economics, but I had a hedge fund manager tell me straight up that all of their quants are PHD in math and physics and things like that. The whole idea that you should be well rounded is bullshit. Even something like a programming minor isn't useful because you can't even fathom how to create programs like some of these russian guys are that created high frequency trading etc.

Average day has gotten a lot better. When I was first given the leeway to use a lot more money, like going from 50k-1mil I literally started to go blind from the stress at night. I remember my first trade I got up to get coffee and came back and was down 10k already in like two minutes, but thank god I have a risk manager, an older guy, who has saved all our asses before and keeps us in check.

not exaggerating at all about going blind though. had to stop taking any sort of drug (coffee) (alcohol on weekdays)

[Anonymous No.5166864]

>>5166451

Likely, there was a bunch of 80$ call options bought up last week for mid 2018, like 30million barrels worth. There were a lot of large budgets approved for exploration of new sources of crude though, may be good for you, maybe not.

Hard to say though, crude oil going up as fast as it's been is hard on countries like India. Nigeria announced today they don't want it going above 65 for a while, but I really don't know if they matter fuck all.

[Dynashill !!z12mzVPjBfm No.5166902]

>>5166159
fuck off and kill yourself

[Anonymous No.5166945]

>>5166562
please explain more

[Anonymous No.5166963]

>>5166423
That'll create arbitrage opportunities to make basically free money. They'll even build microwave links between the data centers if they have to.

[Anonymous No.5167063]

>>5166902
Natgas is coming for you, you fuck

[Anonymous No.5167104]

>>5166159
What's the likelyhood of CME traders manipulating BTC prices to attack / defend futures positions

[Anonymous No.5167115]

OP, do you guys still mostly trade momentum? Is it still as prevailing as it used to be or have more complicated models made their way in? Do you have quants on the floor or just in risk/behind the desk type of positions?

[Anonymous No.5167123]

DUDE THE 80S LMAO

[Anonymous No.5167149]

>>5167115
Meant to say "strategies", not "models"

[Anonymous No.5167164]

It's a logical fallacy to backtest a program. The guys here who are working on it say they can make something work backtested, but it never pans out.

They have to play it in real time and be really patient, but they're on salary so whatever. That's really all I know about programming, it's pretty hush hush.

>>5166628

There's a lot of ways you can artificially inflate an asset.

If you are a high frequency trader (HFT) you can put in a bunch of false orders in.

Example: You put in a buy order for $1,000,000 when a stock hit's $100 and when the exchange goes to fill your order it bumps the price up to $101 for the next guy to buy.... the catch is.... your computer is so fast, it took your buy order away before the exchange could realize, so now you just fucked some guy into buying for $101. If you can do this all day, then you can make it look like there's lots of buys when there aren't any.

Another thing they're doing is putting 1,000,000 in cash in one account and opening another account with a 1,000,000 worth of bitcoin and just buying their own fucking bitcoin. You just swap the coin into your other wallet, but everyone sees a huge buy order and tries to follow you, or algorithms do.

Tether also inflates bitcoin because you can use leverage off of it. There's a few more ways, but I feel like I should answer other people too.

[Anonymous No.5167275]

Hey OP, appreciate the AMA. I was watching a Youtube video whereby a BTC trader was referring to the Nikki futures and said it had a bullrun for a year before collapsing 50%, do you think BTC/crypto will have the same run?

[Anonymous No.5167318]

>>5167164
This is why I hate the ebin qUAnt and H-F-tee :DDDDD memes.

It's got fuck all to with trading, psychology, and emotional control.

It's fucking around with the "plumbing" of exchanges, with shit like quote stuffing .

[Anonymous No.5167334]

>>5167164

OP, what do you think the price of bitcoin will be in 6 months? Total speculation. Pick a number.

[Anonymous No.5167341]

>>5166159
Do you think you'll keep doing this for a while? I've always heard there's not a whole lot of upward mobility in trading unless you hit it big. Why this vs traditional corporate job?

[Anonymous No.5167363]

>>5167318
Quant doesn't mean HFT by default. Most quants don't do HFT related work.

[Anonymous No.5167451]

>>5166770
is going blind really something that can be stress induced? Sounds more like a freak warning of a brain tumor or something man

[Anonymous No.5167463]

>>5166652
>>5166945

When an event occurs, like trump's tax plan, RSI tends to hit overbought pretty quickly.

Day one I was taught that assets don't move in straight lines, up or down and that's generally true.

However, if there's a new fundamental event then the trend will ironically rise faster in proportion to how legitimate the the event was. Does that make sense?

So if you found out Amazon beet it's earnings by a crazy margin, your RSI and chart analysis would say it's way overbought and you should sell, which would be correct in the previous paradigm, but it's not anymore.

MACD shows reversals in price action after they've already happened, it's better to just see bottoms in candle formations, rather than using a MACD strategy, you'll get in faster.

You could read this one, but it's a little different because it has some more basics. Still trying to find the one that's pure chart patterns in PDF, which I know is out there. Don't try to cram it, a concept or two a day is better because you can try finding them in charts real time.

https://www.mrao.cam.ac.uk/~mph/Technical_Analysis.pdf

[Anonymous No.5167475]

>>5167164
>>5167318
sentiment analysis is all you need for crypto.

[Anonymous No.5167506]

>>5167363
I understand that, but the fields do interconnect, at times.

Both don't focus on the human aspects of markets - The actual fucking thing that causes prices to move. I have difference in my philosophical view of what's "right" to do in the market.

[Anonymous No.5167584]

>>5167506
Although, that's not totally true about quantitative analysis, which could include looking at things like monitoring how much a term is searched, or how many times it appears on some social media page. I guess monitoring sentiment is, in a way, focusing on human aspects.

[Anonymous No.5167646]

>>5167506
A lot of quantitative models are based on findings from behavioural finance actually. Take any quant trend trading model for example and you'll find a lot of it can be traced back to Hong & Stein's paper on the momentum anomaly. Would be quite foolish to ignore all of that research, especially stuff from the late 90s when the field really gained traction.

[Anonymous No.5167662]

>>5167463

OP, I'd like to know what you think will be the price of bitcoin in 6 months. If you had to pick a number. Gun to your head. And I'll pull the fucking trigger.

[Anonymous No.5167679]

>>5167646
i see

[Anonymous No.5167701]

>>5166159
how do you deal with the wednesday EPA reports?
ive tried trading UWTI / DWTI in the past (rip) at that moment and its a fucking mess

got any tips? straddle I guess?

[Anonymous No.5167704]

>>5167275

I am of the general opinion that once the top happens, you'll know. Read the book "Blink," basically your brain will recognize the change before you consciously do...

>>5166713

We aren't that big, honestly a million dollar buy order on my side, which isn't unusual is filled within 3 seconds if lagging and maybe I see the candle move for a second.

I find it hard to believe there are many market markers out there.

[Anonymous No.5167820]

>>5167704
Can you give us some rough predictions on BTC?
How high will it go? Will it crash? How hard?
I know its impossible to answer correclty, but Im really curious about your opinion

[Anonymous No.5167889]

>>5167679
But you are quite correct in pointing out that markets are human driven (which should be quite obvious haha), thats why the emergence of behavioral finance was so important, previously we had an assumption of EMH and Brownian motion and so on. Which, for all intents and purposes, is pretty much bunk. A quant is simply someone operating under the assumption of market inefficiency and someone trying to exploit said inefficiency methodically rather than relying on specific indicators and so on.
On HFT I kind of tend to agree with you 99%. I believe its not really driving anything forward... There are arguments to be made about market making and so on, but yeah...

[Anonymous No.5167892]

>>5167104

Likely 0.

>>5167115

We crunch the numbers on what the fundamentals will be and create a price target based off of that, assume a timeframe and if it is rising too quick, sell some prematurely. I.E. 6% up target, two days in it's up 2%, sell all/half position, buy again where you did two days ago.

There are a lot more complicated ways to trade, but I can't really get into them. The example above is oversimplified.

>>5167341

There can be more upward mobility, but you have to meet certain criteria, sometimes that means having gone to an ivy league to join "the club." I've heard it's a lot harder than it was pre 2009.

I'm fascinated with it and I will likely do it forever. I'm old money and Im trying to just get some experience to manage the family trust. My accounting friends from university all love their jobs at big 4 firms though, probably easier to do that and if you do the books for a big company they will give you like 100k at the end to go party in some ski town for a week, not an exaggeration

>>5167363

Yeah Quant guys don't usually even talk to the HFT people.

>>5167451

Nah it's totally a thing, just an ocular migraine, watch some elon musk interviews, he talks about the same thing happening to him. Losing money causes actual physical pain to people. That's why its hard to get out of a losing position, which is why we have risk managers who sometimes terminate our losing trades when we don't want to.

[Anonymous No.5167897]

>>5167704
Also do you think getting a job in that field is possible without a degree?
I played poker professionally for the last 6 years making 6 figures every year (which is pretty hard nowadays), learn super quick and think I would do well, but obviously have a trash cv.

[Anonymous No.5167900]

OP has not once predicted price of BTC. useless thread which is the only thing people want to hear.

[Anonymous No.5167943]

>>5167892
> We crunch the numbers on what the fundamentals will be and create a price target based off of that,
So factor modelling mostly?

[Anonymous No.5168012]

>>5167104
Derivatives *DONT* have any effect on the underlying. That isn't to say that traders watching sweeps won't make decisions based on yuge positions

[Anonymous No.5168057]

>>5167900
>>5167820
>>5167662

Why is OP afraid to answer the big question. Seems cowardly.

[Anonymous No.5168116]

>>5167584

There's a pretty good program out there that tracks positive twitter mentions to % gap up of a stock the next day.

>>5167662

If I had a gun to my head I would say less than it is today, but I have tried to do a paper trading bet with another trader friend of mine and we both got burned shorting bitcoin on paper. 16k?

>>5167701

Yeah trading EIA will get you wrecked because it's not a surprise to firms like mine most of the time, I have the numbers down a few days in advance with like 95% accuracy. At that point we plan according to our trading target, so even if it's good, it can still be a sell.

I think it's better to know nothing than it is to only know a little. Maybe try just working on your technical analysis and view EIA and API as a distraction?

>>5167820

To be honest again, the psychology of bitcoin seems to be at the "New Paradigm" bit that I saw in that 4chan copypasta. My friend the other day texted me telling me to just buy some sort of coin, which to be is a sign I shouldn't.

However, like I said, when the tops happens, you'll know. Generally you will experience fear when checking up on your positions because something is acting in a way that does not fit your description of how it should be acting. Again, my bitcoin advice is not great at all.

[Anonymous No.5168121]

>>5168057
because predicting bitcoin price is retarded and unnecessary?

[Anonymous No.5168151]

>>5166159
take everything OP says with a grain of salt, he still sleeps in a twin bed...

[Anonymous No.5168154]

>>5167889
When hft is used for market making it's fine, because it's providing liquidity and likely doing so with small spreads. It's just stuff like front-running and quote stuffing which I dislike.

[Anonymous No.5168195]

>>5166159
If I had a marketing degree, what would I need to do to more align myself with a position you're in? Honestly, maybe I'm insane, but the stress sounds exhilarating

[Anonymous No.5168203]

>>5166159
Needs a Drive poster t b h

[Anonymous No.5168219]

>>5168057
Because it's completely impossible given bitcoins lack of actual utility.

[Anonymous No.5168243]

>>5168116
im planning to write/already trying to write an insider trading detection software
what are the likelyhoods of me sucessfully doing that?
do big trading firms have such programs (im sure the authorities do..do banks and do you?)

[Anonymous No.5168287]

>>5167900
>>5168057
>>5167820
>>5167662
>>5166248

Bitcoin market cap hit 500billion last week and a lot of funds were diversified into other coins, that's why you saw litecoin,ripple,etherium jump.

As much as I want to say this is the top it's probably asinine to do so. Think about a top at the 1 trillion market cap. However, if bitcoin trades sideways around here for any decent amount of time I would expect a big retrace.

Maybe I'll chart it out to see if I can get a better idea, or like a definitive possible target number.

[Anonymous No.5168299]

>>5168116
As I understand you, You are basically day-trading for your company? Do you trade often for yourself? Are you allowed to trade your own securities? Does your job give you experience that you can apply to your own accounts?

and what do you know/have you heard about Ichimoku, specifically being used by pros?

[Anonymous No.5168309]

>>5166159
>I do the WTI/Brent crude oil analysis
do you make money trading this spread?

do you follow eurodollar futures and if so what's the deal with those?

what's the overall sentiment toward bitcoin of people you work with?

[Anonymous No.5168325]

>>5168116
Can you get more into it how and why I will know when the top happens?
And I am already experiencing fear checking every time
But thats probably because 4/5th of my liquid assets are in crypto

[Anonymous No.5168334]

>>5168287
>Maybe I'll chart it out to see if I can get a better idea, or like a definitive possible target number.

Please do

[Anonymous No.5168395]

>>5167704
Is it just simply we misunderstood each other or should I really be shocked and appalled that they actually give you a million dollar book?

[Anonymous No.5168449]

What knife do you carry?

[Anonymous No.5168456]

>>5166159
>technical analysis

[Anonymous No.5168515]

>>5166423
>it wouldn't necessarily make bitcoin plunge because they're selling the contract and not the actual bitcoin

hem

Are you sure you're really a trader?

Of course that shorting a future is impacting the underlying price. If it was not there would be massive arbitrage opportunities.

t. actual equity index future trader

[Anonymous No.5168538]

>>5168057
Sam Hyde really been letting himself go...

[Anonymous No.5168569]

>>5166159
>technical analysis

[Anonymous No.5168573]

>>5166159
Lurker here. Thanks OP. One of the best threads on Biz I've seen in a while.

[Anonymous No.5168614]

>>5168154

ehh theoretically they argue they provide liqudity, but when researched recently it's been the contrary, i saw.

>>5168195

It is exhilarating, until it's 24 hours a day. Wake up in the middle of the night because london just opened and you think hey why not check my position. You're down 20k today, maybe you'll just watch it until it goes up more because it's a fluke, now you haven't slept.

It takes a toll being under that much stress for so long. I get up pretty early, but I still go home to take a nap every day after work just because I'm exhausted from adrenaline.

Your marketing degree doesn't help you in this field at all. My boss even gives me shit sometimes because I studied econ and that's useless too.

If you can get your foot in the door somewhere though, that's all you need.

>>5168203

Yeah, working on it.

>>5168243

There are programs out there that alert you when big bulk order are put through, I find this is pretty useful. Maybe you could do this, but I think it would have to be more indirectly than you think.

The most fascinating thing that's happened to be in this job was around this time last year before the first opec cut went in and oil was trading at 46.3 and I was like holy fuck this just shot up half a dollar in a second and I saw 40 billion in buy orders go in within five minutes.

The industry standard of price target to risk reward is 3:1 so I took my price target of 55, assumed a $9 target profit per contract, assumed then they would be willing to take a $3 loss and a few days later saw whoever those people were about to get stopped out at 43.3 and lo and behold Iran and other countries had their ministers announce through reuters and bloomberg on twitter that the deal would definitely go through.

I literally saw a country back up a trade on twitter.

Nov 14 last year, if you had access to the 1 minute chart you can see where the algos picked up the news. Looks like it got slightly past their stop, same idea

[Anonymous No.5168630]

>>5166423
>a lot of the programming guys around here are pretty much positive are inflating the price of their coins.

What are the prevailing theories on tether? money laundering? wash trading? just old fashioned money printing?

[Anonymous No.5168680]

>>5168287

Pls chart it out. I'm interested in your analysis, however gay and ignorant it may be.

[Anonymous No.5168712]

>>5168680
Lel just imagine how that must feel. Without that defect he would have the perfect body.

[Anonymous No.5168748]

>>5168614
i was thinking more like analysing huge options on stocks that usually dont have big volume, with a very unusual buy shortly before its expiry. saw a couple of those this year where they went 10-20x overnight, mostly in pharmas and tech

[Anonymous No.5168760]

>>5168456
What happens on charts is an expression of what goes on in order flow.

Support and Resistance arise out of big orders preventing price movement in a certain direction.

Breakouts occur due to a large order/bundle of orders being filled/removed, allowing price to rapidly move in a certain direction.

Trends occur because orders are being filled/removed over a longer period of time.

Technical analysis can be used as a way diagramitically understand what's taking place, which can allow for decision making such as where to enter/exit trades, and how to manage risk.

Any analysis that is used for "prediction", whether that's FA/TA, cannot and will not always work, which is why risk must be managed.

[Anonymous No.5168789]

>>5168515
well its a chicken and egg kind of shit isnt it? price is affected because of those arb opportunities that arise with contango/backwardation

[Anonymous No.5168800]

>>5168712
Ayyo hol up that's far from perfect. Waist is too wide, delts underdeveloped. I mean I'm not sayin I'm perfect but I think my genetics hold a better frame.

THIS is perfection...

[Anonymous No.5168803]

>>5168712
99% of girls would still fuck him after seeing that

[Anonymous No.5168987]

>>5168789
Yes both are equally impacted by each other.
It's like if you have one big market, because you have always some people to do instant arbitrage.
And also the market makers who are selling and buying the future are usually instantly hedging with the underlying (bitcoin in this case).

So if a huge load of bitcoin futures at sold it will definitely make the bitcoin price drop.

[Anonymous No.5169005]

>>5168614
>tfw he realizes btc is bearish

[Anonymous No.5169008]

>>5168299

My family has a trust fund for me and the family so I have no need to save/invest for myself-- it's like 2 million for me atm. They ask me for advice though.

Yeah at my firm you get to use some amount of their capital and the longer you're there or the more you make the bigger % of the profit you get and the more you can trade with.

>>5168325

haha sorry I guess once you've been staring at charts for years your responses to things are a lot different. try to chart out to see if there are any bat/butterfly patterns, or an elliot wave, head and shoulders or something. If you find a pattern that matches it will make a random system seem logical and you won't be as stressed.

In terms of bitcoin, I saw last week there was a 20% down day, but it closed more than 50% off the low. Maybe if you see a 20% down day and it closes near the bottom it's something to be scared of? Trading mid candle is not a great idea if you're new


>>5168395

A million is pretty average? Get 200k assume 5x leverage break it into 2-3 bits to buy in as it goes down. A million dollar block order feels pretty cozy when you see a billion in buys at the same price in a block.

>>5168449

I thought about getting a benchmark, but I've been stabbed before and honestly I'd really rather not get into a full knife fight because nobody comes out of those as the winner. Chicago is pretty safe where I am, but there's always crazies on drugs.

>>5168515

It's all cash settled from what I heard, so no bitcoin involved. Could be wrong.

Will attempt technical analysis on parabolic function now- fuck.

[Anonymous No.5169032]

>>5166159
Hey OP what books would you recommend to get a basic understanding of reading charts. I'm talking about real bare bones basic beginner stuff.

[Anonymous No.5169126]

>>5169008
>It's all cash settled from what I heard, so no bitcoin involved

The settlement method has little impact. It's all a matter of risk.

Market makers needs to be delta hedged when buying a future, the most obvious way to do it is by selling a bitcoin.

[Anonymous No.5169178]

>>5166159
How to displace and replace the kikes with crypto?

[Anonymous No.5169320]

>>5169126
Price might also get affected indirectly if futures are heavily used for their intended purpose (minor point, as I don't believe it will move price in a meaningful way). For example miners hedging out their risk by settling for the future rather than the underlying. Or miners offsetting risk to speculators. Might lead to price impact purely on psychological grounds too.

[Anonymous No.5169331]

>>5169032

https://www.mrao.cam.ac.uk/~mph/Technical_Analysis.pdf

is one.

>>5169126

That's true, I just don't understand why a lot of people would want to buy the futures at all.

[Anonymous No.5169359]

>>5168800
jeff pls go

[Anonymous No.5169389]

>>5169331
> That's true, I just don't understand why a lot of people would want to buy the futures at all.
hedging as usual

[Anonymous No.5169551]

>>5166159
How much do you earn? How much do you see your salary reaching in 10 years? Also, age?

[Anonymous No.5169592]

>>5169178
This

[Anonymous No.5169661]

>>5169008
Most firms aren't trading leveraged, but some do.
>break it into 2-3 bits to buy in as it goes down
But no professional trading firms' risk managers will allow that much risk concentrated into one like this and this quoted text makes it sound like you concentrating up to 30% of your total risk exposure into one.

>feels pretty cozy when you see a billion in buys at the same price
Yeah I used to be into that too but starting to realize that seeing someone refreshing the bid or offer and repeatedly lifting the offer, the offer being absorbed, etc etc, isn't really ultimately whats driving things. That could be a spread trader executing one leg of their spread and has nothing to do with what you're looking at.

>>5169320
After reading this post glad to see someone else here who knows what's up.

[Anonymous No.5169852]

>>5166159
are you autistic?

[Anonymous No.5169983]

>>5166248
>>5167334
>>5167475
>>5167662
>>5167820
>>5167900
>>5168057
>>5168121
>>5168334
>>5168456
>>5168569

Sorry for using TV, I'm doing this AMA on my macbook, which I don't have any trading software on so I'm not tempted to check on things.

Really the only thing I could think of drawing out given the parabolic rate.

Elliot wave patterns like this have variable rates of retrace, if I knew more about the underlying I would be better able to decide what those degrees might be... so it goes.

20,000 is a big resistance, perhaps entry could be 50 day moving average which is the top of wave one, a support (17k).

A lot of you are asking me if it can hit 25k, so you're all at least somewhat aware of the concept of a trading range. For example, it breaks 1k, then maybe it hits 10k? breaks 10k, maybe hits 20k?

Thought it was convenient that the next wave is 25k retrace to 22k, final target 28k, seems weird arbitrary to me as a trader, but whatever. If this were oil I would hope to see final target as something like $65 which is a level frequently mentioned in the news.

I didn't measure super precisely, could be off a bit.

This chart also implies to not get caught in the bull trap just above 25k, firms frequently send prices just above major supports so they can cause a short squeeze to give them enough shares to sell their position without losing too much in slippage.

[Anonymous No.5170149]

>>5169661

For a particular trade I break my capital into three bits most of the time. Like if my entry is 100, stop 90 then I would hope to get some at 100 and some at 96.5 some at 93.5, but it hardly works like that.

I don't think too much about block orders anymore either, but this was a year ago. It was the block orders and the impending opec deal + the fact that their trade seemed to mirror mine that I thought it was worth buying in then.

[Anonymous No.5170164]

>>5169983
serious question, do you ever feel slightly uneasy when relying on something with no real falsifiable hypothesis?

[Anonymous No.5170295]

>>5170164

[Anonymous No.5170330]

>>5170164

About six months after I was trained I started to get things right and sometimes even months in advance. I told my family I was pretty sure I had Schizophrenia because I was seeing motives in price action and so on. They thought I was kidding, I was only 80% kidding.

To this day it weirds me out sitting down every six months and charting out what I think the year will do and see that it happens even though the fundamentals weren't there to support it at the time. Dunno what to think of it, but I decided to be idiotic and just follow my trade plan until I get stopped out.

[Anonymous No.5170345]

>>5166159
>have only one screen
>clean desk
>tryhard pics and lighting
fuck off faggot. i guarantee that i out "swing traded" you in in the past week. i turned a $10 credit card gamble into $130k so far

[Anonymous No.5170425]

>>5170149

Is your firm not panicking or scrambling to get in on the crypto craze? You seem awfully nonchalant about it. Makes me wonder what the FI's have up their sleeves

[Anonymous No.5170484]

>>5166159
fuck off pajeet

[Anonymous No.5170533]

>>5166159
are you ready to get JUSTed, nigger?

[Anonymous No.5170554]

>>5170330
Thats fascinating actually. Used to do quant work in london a good number of years ago and some fairly successful traders were being torn apart by exactly this. I always wondered whats predictive here and whats just some kind of weird, subconscious confirmation that leads to the prediction. Oh well if it works... as long as risk is properly managed.

[Anonymous No.5170647]

>>5170425

You can either invest a little amount of money in something very volatile, or you can invest a lot of money into something that is not very volatile.

Blackrock Management, for example, has $5.7 trillion in assets under management. What is bitcoin to them? If they had put that money into the S&P and gained the 25+% this year they made over a trillion dollars.

Can you even comprehend that one company made double the entire market worth of bitcoin this year?

Its a big deal to you because your 500$ turned into a few thousand, but to some people in the world it's nothing. It's literally not worth thinking about for some people.

[Anonymous No.5170773]

>>5170554

I think a British artist did a study and found he could train mice to outperform hedgefund managers in the markets actually. True story, maybe not British though...

You know everyone says its so easy to lose all your money in the market and that 99% of people lose it all in six months day trading, so why not do the exact opposite of that?

On one hand it makes me wonder if there is a "man" out there controlling the markets and choosing arbitrary patterns.

On the other hand sometimes I wonder if the market is just a reapers scythe designed to take money out of populaces by only doing what makes the program money.

On the final hand maybe it's just cuz brits aren't as smart as us Americans? haha just kidding

[Anonymous No.5170835]

>>5166562
What's that 1000 page book I should read?

[Anonymous No.5170989]

>>5170773
the market is an emergent manifestation of human nature

[Anonymous No.5171155]

>>5170773
You say you have 2M in your trust fund. Isn't that a small amount? I have 1M in crypto and will inherit around 1M from my parents and I feel poor as shit. Do you plan to keep working as a trader? How much does it pay and how much will it pay going forward?

[Anonymous No.5171285]

>>5171155
I have two thousand dollars you piece of shit, I have to ride my bike and take the bus.

kys

[Anonymous No.5171366]

>>5171285

Don't worry anon no matter how much we make we will always feel poor. I have friends that make 1-8 million A YEAR. They make my 2 million net worth look like pennies.

[Anonymous No.5171407]

>>5171366
i bet they can afford when their son breaks an arm you fucking nigger. $6000 after insurance how the fuck am i going to get him a car when he's 16? how am i goign to take him to disney world?

[Anonymous No.5171426]

>>5171366
Yeah, I know it's relative to a subjective perspective.

Long grind though for a little guy. I literally have to double my money five times, maybe I'll stare at the charts for another few months.

[Anonymous No.5171447]

>>5171155

The average person makes 2 million in a lifetime, so that's about a lifetime, not a lot, not a little. I feel like it's not enough. I made 260k this year, but I did everything really well. Rent is really expensive here though.

I hope one day I will have control of the trust and there will be a recession and I will be able to buy into S&P futures heavily and leverage my way up from the dip... keep like 10x leverage on S&P for like a decade and hope my siblings/cousins are happy with the money too.

Wish I could retire by 28 though... they say pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered though, don't get greedy.

[Anonymous No.5171464]

>>5171407
Don't live in a third world shit whole aka U S A

[Anonymous No.5171471]

>>5171426
>>5171407

Go type in your money in a compound interest calculator. If you get good at day trading you could theoretically turn 1k into 50 in like 2 years and so on... if you're really really smart.

[Anonymous No.5171494]

>>5171471
>2 years
Bro, this is a new paradigm. People are 30x their original investment on margin in one month.

I'm doing terrible if I can't have 300% gains in one month.

[Anonymous No.5171603]

>>5171471
I took an IQ test once and on this portion that tests spacial pattern recognition they couldn't test me because I completed all of them and the psychologist was stunned.

I made several hundred dollars 3x margin on paper today with 2.5k... not too hard. I have this dream of trading way up and starting a mining company.

[Anonymous No.5171626]

>>5171494
>>5171603

>Why you will always be riding a bike and taking a bus

[Anonymous No.5171636]

>>5171626
s-shutup

[Anonymous No.5171674]

>>5171626
What's so complicated.

18100 was the obvious floor and you'd be up and could trade on any wave past that

[Anonymous No.5171758]

>>5171603

Paper trading isn't the same as real trading, you won't respond to it in the same way. Trading becomes incredibly emotional especially when your wrong. A lot of people can paper trade and not real trade, so try with real money even if it's not a lot.

It's common knowledge that some people have the head for it and some people don't. I've talked to one guy who was like yeah one day I've woken up -10mil and didn't think too much of it.

There are other people too who are smart but get overwhelmed by using too much leverage or too much money, but can handle little bits. Some genuinely go psychotic.

[Anonymous No.5171779]

>>5171758
Thank you for the response, I appreciated your thread.

[Anonymous No.5171954]

>the decedents of rich people like OP are wasting their lives shuffling around the money of other rich people.

Fuck you OP, you seem smart, why couldn't you have studied medicine or engineering or something that actually matters to society.

[Anonymous No.5171962]

>>5171758
Blink is actually fun to read

[Anonymous No.5171985]

>>5166159
hi OP thoughts on VWAP?

[Anonymous No.5172045]

>>5171758
Do the emotions naturally fade away?

I remember being in sweats about to make a trade back when Bitcoin was crashing from $68 way back in the day.

Now I don't even notice if I'm up or down 200k.

[Anonymous No.5172066]

I built my own predictive AI algorithm using node based programming within Ninja Trader. I basically had to train the algorithm myself and only part of it was trained by a genetic algorithm but it works great in crude oil by tracking momentum from all of the bad (95% are bad) algorithms trading in that market.

There is no such thing as technical analysis for the most part except a tiny bit if you're using daily candles. My system doesn't use any technical analysis except for moving averages in places to smooth and filter certain inputs and stuff like that.

[Anonymous No.5172107]

Technical analysis is kind of like taking a valium. It might calm you down, but it also might make you do something stupid.

[Anonymous No.5172131]

>>5172107
that's not a good analogy

[Anonymous No.5172237]

>>5171985

I think VWAP is good to look at towards the end of a cycle, say an event happened, it broke all time highs, then weeks or months later the hype dies down and you look for a solid place that could see some buying again. That's VWAP sometimes.

>>5172045

Yeah, not to be edgy, but remember in the Dark Knight when the joker says nobody cares if somebody gets blown up as long as it's predictable? You have a better idea of what's happening and so you know you're about to get blown up (dip), but usually it ends up being more or less fine so far.

People generally develop ways to deal with the stressors too. I.E. I set a stop loss and don't look at any charts before bed/in the night so I can sleep.

[Anonymous No.5172268]

>>5172107
>>5172066

So what's your target?

[Anonymous No.5172343]

>>5172237
thoughts on how does a 40% biweekly returns from crypto compared against the regulated markets

[Anonymous No.5172383]

>>5172131
I've tested every common technical analysis strategy on historical data and they all don't work. A lot of them actually lose more than pure random trading. There really is no strategy you can follow that will make you money other than essentially building a digital brain designed to trade one market and do nothing else or being a fundamental trader who knows enough about a market to model the whole thing in their mind. That and insider information. Insider information is "the secret" to funds that produce profits above 10% a year. Traders are basically hired monkeys on a typewriter, they aren't the secret to a funds success.

[Anonymous No.5172470]

>>5172383
the thing with these moving average doesn't provide anything aside from hindsight analysis and i can't take the lag. being normie i only trade on breakouts, fake outs is one way for me to rekt city but i'm utilizing stop losses.

[Anonymous No.5172494]

>>5172343

A trader who uses options to trade stocks is considered to be doing very well if they make 2-3% a week.

Most people are working on a 40 year timeline though, so that would be unbelievably good even assuming 40% short term capital gains taxes.

20% a week is theoretically unstable, but still good if you have it.

[Anonymous No.5172559]

>>5172268
In the market that my algorithm trades I found that 8 ticks up or down for stop loss/profit is about as far as you can predict at any one time and still have an edge. My system isn't necessarily time based, but on average I'd say it stays in a trade for about 2 minutes at a time. It usually takes advantage of momentum trends within the first few hours of the open. I don't believe there will ever be a way to predict intraday trends with statistical certainty. My system is also somewhat limited to the amount of contracts I can trade because it needs to get in and out fast.

[Anonymous No.5172585]

>>5172470

yeah common mistake, breakouts are hard to time even for experienced people. I stopped trying to trade breakouts normally a long time ago

>>5172383

So what's your price target on Cl1! using your AI?

>Building digital brain to trade one market
>Some degree of fundamental knowledge
>Dash of insider guessing

>Literally my job

Not a monkey tho

[Anonymous No.5172604]

>>5172494
thanks op, i'll will start to learn options trading.

[Anonymous No.5172696]

>>5172470
Yeah, I just use moving averages because I needed to smooth out certain inputs to make my system function properly. They're very fast moving averages, basically to turn a "stair steppy" signal into something useful. In your case I wouldn't worry about trading jargon, it's all bs but you still have to know all of it to understand the retail traders, what indicators they're into, and how to group them into categories etc. You also need to know what quants do when building their systems at the fundamental levels which is more abstract than actually knowing what their code is.

[Anonymous No.5172745]

>>5171603
this is so much like me.

I am a phd candidate in geology, in the top 5% of my subfield that involves finding stuff.

I want to get into telecoms and ai, busy learning ML, recently trained a deep learning model on image classification.

I loved making cyphers as a kid, is that the right word. When you make a set of symbols or numbers to represent letters. loved that shit, should have stuck with it but I'm in a 3rd world country so figured mining would be a good future.

I dont have much invested but I'm making gains against the bitcoin in altcoin trading. not really day trading more like picking moons and trading when its good, like if there is a bit in bitcoin and the alt is mini mooning. Jump back in when the alt is at another bottom. I also look for combinations, like if lightcoin is moning relative to bit but not ether, I learned this last week from looking at 3 coins at the same time. Somme told me this is called arbitrage. I did the calculations because my exchange was taking too much of my profits, then I started making money faster than bitcoin going up. Its only just though so maybe the effort is wasted and the long moon picks will be best.

[Anonymous No.5172862]

>>5172585
The only fundamentals I look at are times when I might want to turn off my system because it's typically slightly losing when in long stretches of consolidation. My targets are pretty short term so I don't bother with trying to predict tops or bottoms and from all of the historical testing I've done I can see that it would not be wise to try with my system.

Are you familiar with Bloodhound for Ninjatrader?

[Anonymous No.5172863]

>>5172559
>It usually takes advantage of momentum trends within the first few hours of the open

Your views on technical analysis don't really matter. Everyone and their mother watches opening ranges, for any breakouts, and trends which follow (which is what technical analysis is, whether you like it or not).

You're not doing anything special.

[Anonymous No.5172898]

>>5172585
if you dont trade breakouts what do you trade? what patterns?

[Anonymous No.5172922]

>>5172863
https://www.forexstrategieswork.com/london-daybreak-strategy/

this is a well known strategy sort of based around what happens when London markets open

[Anonymous No.5172929]

>>5166159
What's with the nightcrawler you edgy fag degenerate

[Anonymous No.5172972]

>>5172922
https://forextradingstrategies4u.com/london-breakout-forex-trading-strategy/

less ads

[Anonymous No.5173015]

>>5172863
>watches opening ranges, for any breakouts, and trends which follow

My system does not do what you're saying. It doesn't look at "breakouts" or anything like that. AI is more abstract and I found that trying to make an algorithm that "thinks" like common trading advice is a terrible idea. I wanted to state that my system happens to do the best during the open when there is a lot of momentum and madness. Take from that what you want, but it basically means that even AI can't trade consolidation and slow times very well.

[Anonymous No.5173022]

What do you think of the jews?

[Anonymous No.5173136]

any paper trading site for options without required signup?

[Anonymous No.5173208]

>>5171285
guys I'm from South Africa, 2000K is my tutition and some rent, (phds are kind of cheap degrees).

I started with about USD 230, now I'm at USD 549, over the last month. Litereally been in this for about a month, had a few coins in dec last year had to sell to pay rent have major losers about that, probably will ever go back to fiat with what I have invested if can help it.

[Anonymous No.5173428]

>>5173015
I think you should refer to my other comment here >>5168760

specifically on the actual reasons why breakouts and trends happen.

what you refer to as "momentum" (which is what it is commonly referred to as in quant circles) is the fact that orders are being cleared (filled or removed).

this allows price to continue to move in a certain direction, as it less impeded

I also think that just throwing away all of technical analysis, based on some back testing, is not a good idea. Different times, timeframes, and markets (ranging, uptrending, downtrending) call for differing strategies and types of risk management (and example would perhaps using wider stops in more volatile markets).

Another key thing to remember is that all us little guys are trying to do is to follow what the larger market movers are doing, technicals can help with this, to an extent.

[Anonymous No.5173772]

>>5173428

True about certain markets from what I can only assume because I haven't tested crypto's (I will try after there's enough data for BTC futures), crypto's for example have had very good psychological threshold predictability. I remember calling BTC 1,200 for a highly likely point where things might stall. I think in general the crypto's have obeyed some common technical analysis more than conventional markets because a ton of fish are in the markets.

I will note that I have tried to make a dynamic stop loss/profit in my system and could never get it to work or get anything to work better in CL than 8 ticks up and 8 ticks down for stop/profit, even based on things like volatility.

[Anonymous No.5173909]

>>5166159
how do you keep that fucking banzai tree alive

[Anonymous No.5174254]

>>5172585
I'm really enjoying reading through your posts, I have a question;

Is measuring alt coin gains in USD rather than btc/Satoshi's delusional?

Is the btc price as a measure of value more relevant than USD?

Glad you're on here. :) Biz always delivers

[Anonymous No.5174655]

>>5170647
Absolutely incredible. Thanks for putting it into perspective. And for doing the AMA. How long have you been in biz? On 4chan? Is this your favorite website? What kind of car do you drive?

[Anonymous No.5175238]

>>5167897
Not OP but I work in private wealth management and it would be pretty unheard of for anyone without a degree to work in any sort of portfolio mgmt role(except maybe programmers, but that's way different). I've been in the business for 6 years and am a CFA charterholder and I've never encountered something like that.

[Anonymous No.5175350]

>>5171603
>muh elementary school IQ test

I often see this excuse from unsuccessful people. Pretty pathetic.

[Anonymous No.5175443]

>>5166159
where do you think oil is going from here? asking because I live in Houston

[Anonymous No.5175511]

>>5166159
Those LED lights, were did you put those? Behind the comp or ynder the shelf?

[Anonymous No.5175600]

>>5175350
It was by a psychologist, a doctor, retard.

I still outpaced hundreds of other people who took the test, probably thousands since I was the only person to ever do that in his entire career up until that point.

[Anonymous No.5175746]

>>5175600
At what age? My point is that apparently you're struggling, so it doesn't matter how much of a genius you were told you were.

[Anonymous No.5176469]

>>5175746
Highest IQs dont tend to be the most successful as is measured in wealth you justin bieber

Theres studies on this, but here's an interesting read for that guy, not you: https://polymatharchives.blogspot.com/2015/01/the-inappropriately-excluded.html?m=1

[Anonymous No.5176617]

>>5176469
interesting, thanks

[Anonymous No.5176763]

>>5176469
>Effective leaders recognize that they need the counsel of those smarter than themselves. They will be most convinced by advisors with R16IQs of 128+20=148 (D15IQ 139).

This one has always been tricky to me since my IQ is at about 125, it's hard to find these even higher IQ leaders to listen to.

[Anonymous No.5176902]

>>5176763
Hmm, it might be higher than that from the pattern-recognition metric at least, though. That's mostly what it's scoring for.

Trump was estimated to have a 156 IQ, along with his main lawyer/etc saying of him to be the closest thing to a genius he had ever known. That sentence seems funny in regards to people reeeeing about him not listening to diptel reports

[Anonymous No.5177104]

>>5176469
This has been quite relative in my own life.

It explains why I only listen to a certain percentage of the population because of their own intelligence. It explains all of my complaints about the public school system as well. The leader thing is huge too.

[Anonymous No.5177725]

>>5166562
>volume
How do you use volume exactly? Is it right that if volume is increasing then the trend is strengthening? If the volume is low or dropping what do you conclude?