Is there an Australian property bubble?

[Anonymous No.51639]

Is Australia at the top of a property price bubble that's about the burst? Every cunt (although the media's leaning towards bubble) seems really divided about it. Yeah nah, slight easing and downward adjustment at the worst , no worries mate. Shit's about to get fucked, don't buy real estate, etc.

>mfw I posted this on /pol/ and then looked and saw moot hawking this board

[Anonymous No.51679]

>>51639

[Anonymous No.51685]

America is overdue for collapse 2 electric boogaloo and they will bring us down with them. But with property it is location, location, location. If you buy near a future mine before the price hike you will do very well. If on the other hand you think a tiny apartment in the CBD is really worth $700,000 you will get a nasty surprise.

[Anonymous No.51707]

>>51639
My sentiment is that Chinese are buying property which is causing price rises outside of what typical Australians can afford.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-11-27/foreign-investors-push-first-home-buyers-out-of-property-market/5120966

How long this can persist is probably dependant on China's own property bubble back home, and their economy in general.

These conditions are terrible for the youth growing up. It is becoming increasingly difficult to purchase a home within an area that holds jobs or infrastructure to larger cities.

[Anonymous No.51711]

>>51685

What about the drop of China real estate/raw materials demand?

[Anonymous No.51722]

>>51707

Is that just yellow panic though? Most of the chinks are just buying property in rich areas where young first homeowners wouldn't even tread aren't they?

[Anonymous No.51745]

>>51711
The media over plays how much goes to China, I have talked with mine managers about it.

[Anonymous No.51748]

>>51722

The exponentially growing foreign student population also props up prices. Their parents send them here with a lot of money.

Australia also enjoyed a pretty easy ride through the GFC (unless you were in manufacturing), and the first home buyers grant kept demand up pretty high. All of that is coming to an end though. So I wouldn't expect prices to hold for very long. Victoria just experienced a 4.8% growth rate, which is record breaking. It's not like that's going to get better considering conditions around the world.

[Anonymous No.51766]

>>51722
The western suburbs of Melbourne are the fastest growing in Australia, it is where I grew up and still live.

My friend is renting a house in a street where practically every house looks identical.

40+ 3 Bedroom homes all built by a Chinese led company, put together so fast you could still smell the paint. Mind you they're tiny blocks of land.

My friend tried to contact the landlord about maintenance and an air conditioner and he's yet to have a response

[Anonymous No.51829]

Of course it's a bubble. This question shouldn't occupy your thinking at all.

What you want to be thinking about is why does the bubble exist (ridiculous regulation, lack of supply, property spruikers and huge inflows of foreign money) and what will end it at what time (Hint: the last lot of brackets in this post).

[Anonymous No.51850]

>>51685
>American economic collapse
On what grounds

[Anonymous No.51853]

>>51829
T-Tony Abbott, who hates foreign policy and anyone from the working and middle class trying to get into the upper classes.
That man is going to ruin us.

[Anonymous No.51863]

>>51829
Will it be catastrophic? Or is that media shit as usual?

>>51745
True, but the iron ore for those Ghost cities didn't supply itself.

[Anonymous No.51870]

>>51850
My gf works in finance at a very large company that owns the London Underground, Westinghouse and several oil rigs. They are moving there cash from USD to Yen because they think shit is going to go down.
She has tried to explain it to me but uses to many acronyms and I get lost every time.

[Anonymous No.51884]

>>51863
It's going to be catastrophic for the lower-middle class who have bought property in the new suburbs, that are way out from the city centres. Anything in the inner city, or on the water might slip a little, but it'll regain value. Whereas, you'd think that if the property market tanks, nobody's going to want all of those new developments out in the middle of nowhere.

Ireland 2.0

[Anonymous No.51885]

>>51748
>manufacturing
>Australia
not even once

[Anonymous No.51905]

>>51870
>yfw your gf is coherent in finance
>yfw you don't understand it
>mfw I have no gf

[Anonymous No.51906]

>>51853
This Liberal govt is a nice example of an opposition govt hat should have stayed there

[Anonymous No.51917]

>>51853

Good to see Young Labor's found this board quickly. Why did Kevin Rudd's staffers during the election do his AMA for him on reddit when they knew that everybody reading it would be voting left anyway?

[Anonymous No.51931]

>>51853
State and Local governments are to blame for the regulation and stifling of supply. Tony Abbott is a Federal politician.

I have not seen Tony Abbott spruiking property in the media.

Tony Abbott has not interfered with foreign real estate investments in any notable way.

Foreign policy is irrelevant to our property issues.

>>51863
People like >>51884 try to play it down by listing nominal positives like coastal land and inner city retaining value.

The issue with the property bubble isn't
>muh battlers
>muh outer suburbs

The entire economy is going to take a shit.

Houses>credit>consumer confidence>entire economy

in that order.

[Anonymous No.51936]

>>51917

Also, did that free grand I got back from Ruddy stimulate the economy to make this /biz/ related? Or did everyone spend it on goods from overseas websites?

[Anonymous No.51938]

>>51917
How's that current government going?

[Anonymous No.51945]

>>51936

*, to make this /biz related.

>dat comma omission

[Anonymous No.51963]

>>51931
Then I buy my Vanguard :D unless my father can't pay the second house off, as his manufacturing plant (Olex Cables) is wrapping up in the next 2 months.
been saving and waiting for 5 months now

[Anonymous No.51957]

>>51938

*fiscally conservative, the way I like it

>mfw finally getting rid of the bloat

[Anonymous No.51966]

>>51957
Glad we're being fiscal about our net infrastructure

[Anonymous No.51979]

>>51938
Since the election I've actively started browsing the Australian subreddit for the daily buttfrustration.

To others in this thread if you enjoy Australian leftist tears and paranoia it's pretty much the most reliable source you'll find. I'd guess there's some decent stuff on revleft but that's too hard for even me to digest.

[Anonymous No.51996]

>>51979
>reddit
figures

[Anonymous No.52003]

>>51957

But they're indiscriminately cutting and they're hobbling the one thing that is actually the fucking roads of the 21st century, the NBN. Both parties are batshit retarded.

The libs trying to impose austerity like conditions will kill our economy. When the fucking IMF disagrees with you, you know you're shit. Hockey is useless moron.

[Anonymous No.52013]

>>51979
I don't use reddit so I'll give you some left tears here.
Labour told Gina Rinehart to fuck off consistently for years to keep the money made my miner in Australia. Liberals get in and within 10 minutes they are sucking her clit. Look at where all Asians with work visas send their money and you will see why this is a bad thing.

[Anonymous No.52015]

Australian property bubble thread and no mention of Steve Keen? For shame, /biz/.

[Anonymous No.52083]

>>51957
>implying that benifets you, a povo cunt

[Anonymous No.52098]

>Major job losses in most industries, mining boom coming to a close, threat of Chinese meltdown
>Crash in the next few years pretty bloody likely
Tone will be lynched by an enraged grey horde of shambling boomers who hadn't sold their properties yet and now have no retirement

Well at least that's something to look forward to.

[Anonymous No.52103]

>>51979

Did somebody say leftist tears? #auspol, my friend.

[Anonymous No.52114]

>>51966

How's you downloading the latest Sasha Grey Gangbang vid faster going to benefit the economy exactly?

[Anonymous No.52131]

>>52083

I'll be outta uni before they privatise the HECS. Won't be my problem then.

[Anonymous No.52139]

>>52003
>But they're indiscriminately cutting and they're hobbling the one thing that is actually the fucking roads of the 21st century, the NBN. Both parties are batshit retarded

Roads use a mixture of speeds and technologies. I don't think that is a good analogy to use.

>The libs trying to impose austerity like conditions will kill our economy.

Depends on how sustainable you think the last 21 years have been. Abbott quoting Keating enough to convince you?

>When the fucking IMF disagrees with you, you know you're shit.

The IMF is funded by countries that compete with our exports and chaired by a French lawyer turned olitician.

Just because it has money in it's name doesn't mean we should follow their advice for our own domestic economic policy.

[Anonymous No.52142]

>>52131
You truly are a forward thinker, now wonder you like someone with great ideas like buy all the people smuggling boats and burn them. It won't even lead to them getting new boat and a boat building boom in another country paid for with our taxes.

[Anonymous No.52151]

>>52114
>Implying you can run any sort of networked business on a unreliable 1-2mbit ADSL/cable upload or pricy fibre that's only available in the inner city where rent alone costs megadosh

>Implying there's any reason to waste money on FTTN, a technology the Brits and Kiwis have long abandoned for their national network because it's too obsolete and has no real upgrade path compared to the practically unlimited capacity future fibre optic offers

>Implying you're not just trolling

[Anonymous No.52166]

>>52151
Businesses can just pass the costs onto consumers.

I mean, it works for labour costs when your union mates do it, so why not this?

[Anonymous No.52179]

>>52166
(not him)
Look at all the startup capital that was needed for facebook, myspace and 4chan. Great ideas are get out more when there is no price barrier.

[Anonymous No.52208]

>>52179
>implying silicon valley is cheap

[Anonymous No.52239]

>>52208
>implying any I listed were founded in silicon vally

[Anonymous No.52297]

>>52239
>implying I wasn't implying that there is more to start ups than cheap fibre internet

[Anonymous No.52303]

>>52239
>implying you knew of them because silicon valley and private equity didn't chuck money into them

Well, maybe not 4chan, but 4chan's funding pretty secretive and complex. I can guarantee you that moot still makes at least 500-800 a year, if not more.

[Anonymous No.52307]

>>52208
That's why it's dying. Austin amongst others is the new hotness.

[Anonymous No.52319]

>>52139

Just checked /r/australia and it's near the top that IMF article.

r/australia, if you're going to be as retarded as you are in that sub, just fuck off now. Don't ruin /auzbiz/ before it has a chance to develop. Got it?

[Anonymous No.52323]

>>52297
>implying I'm not done implying
While it isn't the whole story cheap reliable internet would shape Australia's future towards being a service provider as our manufacturing industries continue to struggle.

[Anonymous No.52358]

>>52323

So, we're going to drop our awards rates to earn 3 bucks an hour freelancing to foreigners like the online Indians with PhD's who write your uni essays for you do?

[Anonymous No.52387]

>>52358

Sorry, contracted work and awards rates having nothing to do with each other. Sorry, stressful night. Still my argument applies to your 'service provider' crack

[Anonymous No.52394]

>>52358
I was thinking more like international PLC support for heavy industry carried out by electrical engineers offering the customer Australian techs (widely considered the best in the world) while eliminating the cost of flying and housing them. But that's just the field I work in and know, I'm sure there are many more.

[Anonymous No.52416]

>>52358
>Implying they're really PhDs
>Implying they can write proper English
>Implying they'd get anything more then vaguely acceptable university marks

Yes you can get work done obscenely cheaply by poorfag foreigners, but it's not going to be quality work compared to a proper company in a first world country with properly educated workers and excellent English communication skills.

[Anonymous No.52433]

>>52394
>PLC

I dunno, Sanjeev from the University of Mumbai Engineering speaks excellent English and goes for cheaper than Davo from RMIT...

[Anonymous No.52461]

>>52416

There's a billion people there dude. The really dedicated ones get scholarships in Euro, USA and Commonwealth countries, the poor ones live in the dirt and blind their kids for sympathy begging money slumdog millionaire shit

[Anonymous No.52471]

>>52461

Also, the ones with rich parents get scholarships, but they're not the undercutters

[Anonymous No.52475]

>>52433
I work in mine construction and have seen every new project manager try to get cheaper workers. "You get what you paid for" applies to heavy industry more so than anywhere else because if Sanjeev makes one mistake that costs 1 day that is a $800,000 fine for the builder due to lost revenue.
I have even seen projects in the Philippines lay off the whole crew and replace them with Aussies because they were running out of time and the labor cost was less than the fines.

[Anonymous No.52490]

>>51639

> Every cunt (although the media's leaning towards bubble) seems really divided about it.

Isn't it that by definition this can't be a bubble? Because the focus is on both ends of the spectrum. For a bubble everyone would have to be on the same boat.

[Anonymous No.52491]

>>52461
And the ones who get scholarships know what they're worth and don't spend their days writing essays for shithead uni students when they could be working in practically any country they choose

[Anonymous No.52552]

>>52490

Bubble just implies a boom/bust cycle. Just because there is uncertainty on the period of this cycle, doesn't nullify the meaning.

[Anonymous No.52580]

>>51870
>They are moving there cash from USD to Yen because they think shit is going to go down.

They probably are moving cash because they think they can make money with it

If they move because they think the USD is going to crash they are really stupid, because the Yen would crash much sooner than the USD

[Anonymous No.52604]

We need some data. How about
-Number of houses in Australia
-Number of households
-Construction related statistics

So far the only post with data is >>52098

[Anonymous No.52622]

>>52604

Gut instinct moyte, the fucken Aussie way, fucken. What are ya, some poofta or somethin?

[Anonymous No.52691]

>>52475
>Cost builder 800,000K in fines

I dunno about aus, but here it would be contractual fines and not gov. induced fined.

>tfw telling some blow hard in a suit that you won't be paying him that 100 grand
>tfw you know it means he has to tell his boss, the even bigger blowhard, that it'll cost 100 grand to rectify this fuck up
>tfw you are the bearer of bad news for ass holes

[Anonymous No.52692]

>>52604
Are you new to life?

RBA for a start.

[Anonymous No.52702]

>>52580
Right? It's funny how in basically any serious financial discussion the possibility of the "end of the world collapse of society!" guys get pushed right to the side.....

Currency is market just like any other commodity. You can make just as much money by moving money as you can doing things with it.

[Anonymous No.52769]

>>52552
I'll agree with you to the extent of yes, bubble indicates boom/bust cycle, but boom/bust cycle is just a series of ups and downs that have been stretched to the extreme- So as long as you're saying that bubble doesn't imply the upwards trend of a regular cycle, instead of the massive over inflated burst that causes a hard down trend.....

Ie- Bubble does not mean normal up and down, it means extreme up and downs.

[Anonymous No.52820]

>>52691
Yeah it's contractual here too. When a project is worth $8,000,000,000+ the lawyers get plenty of time to write them and there is no way out.

I have only told my boss once that we were going to blow the deadline, it wasn't even my job to tell him but the faggot in charge kept pretending everything was fine and was going to sink the company and all our jobs.
To say he was mad is an understatement but he thanked me for giving him the chance to send more guys and scrap through.

[Anonymous No.52892]

Thread music:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8M7WTuPOSO0

[Anonymous No.52939]

>>52892

I don't think so, cobber: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b7kYVjL2lps

[Anonymous No.53748]

I know that most of you are probably asleep now, but is it a good idea to invest in the yen? I've heard that it isn't, but I'd like to know more.

[Anonymous No.53756]

>>53748
Oh, shit, I meant to say yuan/renminbi