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51584786 No.51584786 [Reply] [Original] [archived.moe]

solid 3 day IRL test and the backtester wants to pick *opposite* trades (go short when ema 1 goes above ema 2) because they're just as profitable most of the time, but you'll still make a solid -20%/day.

It doesn't matter what indicator you pick, or what time frame, or what settings, the default ones are guaranteed to fail and form fitting will make them fail even harder.
List of tried and failed indicators
>stoch RSI
>stoch CCI
>simple EMA cross
>simple close over single EMA
>Directional Movement (+DI/-DI/ADX)

none of this shit works on any timeframe and I think I can literally prove it.

I don't know what else to do as far as having a computer trade and not straight gambling with emotions.
Portfolio balancing and grid bots, both "always long" strategies are the only thing thing left; and you can NEVER short (or that would be TA and TA doesn't work).

>> No.51584805

Sounds like u need some help anon. Join @accountabilityteam telegram group

>> No.51584850

they're indicators, not crystal balls, you cannot and they cannot predict the future, nor are they supposed to. They merely define your risk and reward.

>> No.51584865

You're a midwit and you try to trade small time frames. Simple as.

>> No.51584875

Also the game is to find out what whales are using, dumbass. Obviously not every indicator on every time frame will "work perfectly". Especially with scalps. I saw the covid crash, may crash, and november crash coming. Macro shit works. Not telling you what I look at though

>> No.51584878

oh my fucking god you are retarded

>> No.51584888

if they aren't accurate in the slightest, and instead and guaranteed to fail and give you -20%/day if you follow them, then what good are they as "indicators"?

they don't have to be perfect, but following them should net you a greater than 0% compared to hold bag profit, and it just doesn't.

you can cope by going to higher timeframes, but it's equivalent to setting a 50% stop loss

>> No.51584899

brainlet poors detected

>> No.51584902

4hour and daily is the last timeframe i haven't heavily tested because a real life test would take 25 years to be conclusive

>> No.51584929

lmao coping TAniggers
>a-actually you're just doing it wrong!
>w-well really they aren't infallible, they just DEFINE your risk and reward!
maybe stop saying shit like "HURR LEARN HOW TO READ A CHART IT'S BRAINDEAD OBVIOUS BTC IS GOING TO $X" then you dumb faggots

>> No.51584931

indicators may only provide additional confirmation but never make an entry based on a single indicator.
more often than not they are laggy
learn to read price action instead

>> No.51584936

that makes no sense. It would be easier with larger time frames because indicators take longer to flash on larger time frames unless you're saying you don't like the amount of flashes which is a nothing burger. Also consider the fact that you're not even using the correct indicators. Whales hide their methods obviously. Half the game is looking for the shit they program their bots to do.

>> No.51584937

>um akshually my TA works but it's too valuable to just share!!! trust me bro
jnau even

>> No.51584945

Post your IQ before responding to me again, village idiot

>> No.51584950

Thisx but unironically, nigger. If everyone did the same shit, it wouldn't work anymore. Fucking brainlet. The fact that I had to spell this out.

>> No.51584964

someone posted a vid on this, cycles and accumulation and distribution phases etc; but it's too complicated to program a bot for.

I'm about to abandon the bot completely and just try manually trading again but it's so damn time consuming, and you can only play 1 chart. if i can get a nonzero % /day performing bot... you can play ALL charts

this shit is stupid though you can play "all" charts by just buying a bunch of coins and balancing

>> No.51584969

Your problem is you want to be a scalper

>> No.51584978

>instead and guaranteed to fail and give you -20%/day if you follow them
nice trips, but this is where i disagree. i sell put spreads based on MACD and EMA, i make money 8/10 times. Other guys i know, just buy or sell solely based off EMA and support and resistance

>> No.51585014

>i sell put spreads
have "other guys you know" every applied this to crypto?
I haven't tried on stocks / forex because it's a considerable higher barrier to entry. you can't even trade a stock more than a couple times a week without $20,000 in the bank or you get accused of being a "day trader" and account limited.

the bigger consideration with any of this though is fee's and spread. the indicator might be accurate, but it's not accurate enough to play when each trade looses 1% in fee's / spread, it's going to be even harder with a 2-5% fee or god knows what on stocks.

unironically the next best alternative is to scalp the 1 minute chart with a market maker bot and just try to catch scamwicks, hang an order out 1% above and below and a 1s refresh rate around the midprice and then sell/buy it at midprice when it hits

>> No.51585054

try starting off with learning the market structure, snd, snr.
sure its time consuming but you wouldn't need to program a bot once you get the hang of it.

>> No.51585060

Nah, the reason scalping is a meme is because the risk to reward ratio tend to be dogshit. I tried one method that gave me like 15 good trades in a row and then what happened? 2 losses brought it to break even. It's easier to just wait for macro moves. Scalping is a meme without a specific bot. There is ONE method I feel could work (the above method), but since I'm no coder, I can't make a bot to backtest it and refine it i.e. not enter trades when conditions are met
Without a specific bot to backtest this specific method, it's pointless. Idk what a market maker bot is, but I doubt it could do the method I was using.

>> No.51585113
File: 114 KB, 1238x391, Screen Shot 2022-09-23 at 12.52.20 AM.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]

>can't even trade a stock more than a couple times a week without $20,000
Not a burger or leaf then i take it, with little capital too. Admittedly, i haven't used this on crypto, nor do i know anyone in RL who owns it. That said, in hindsight.. if you bought BTC at 18800, selling a stop loss at 17000 (defining your risk) then selling at the 20 EMA, over the last 4 months you've made money.. is it perfect? are you raking in 5% daily? no, but your making money. thousands over 4 months, assuming your trading around 1 BTC
>i have no understanding of the fee structure of crypto brokerages

>> No.51585155
File: 408 KB, 431x432, 1662918482599260.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]

Congratulations, you've discovered that TA is financial astrology. Prepare for the barrage of geniuses who don't know the difference between probability of profit and expected value telling you that you're just not smart enough to figure it out.
>I don't know what else to do as far as having a computer trade and not straight gambling with emotions.
Short-term price action (excluding news events) is basically random noise. Short of insider trading, there is no strictly-TA strategy that manages an alpha better than 0 in the long run. I know it's tempting to think the perfect strategy is somewhere out there, but get it out of your head. You cannot statistically beat the market. The good news is you CAN beat the retards who think they can beat the market, but how you choose to do that is up to you.

>> No.51585226

It's not astrology, jackass. It's whale bots. Bots use TA

>> No.51585291

>Short-term price action (excluding news events) is basically random noise. Short of insider trading, there is no strictly-TA strategy that manages an alpha better than 0 in the long run.
> I know it's tempting to think the perfect strategy is somewhere out there, but get it out of your head.
it's like a drug addiction. if i just gave up on it it would be a massive relief but it's like the holy grail. imagine printing 20%/day every day indefinitely longing and shorting irregardless of market condition. the free money printer

I can't cope with the results anymore though, I have years of evidence at this point and every indicator and timeframe (sub 4hour) is verifiable unprofitable and i can't just blame my shit code or some error somewhere; i've completely rewritten the bot multiple times.

if it doesn't require extensive cpu you can just type it in to pinescript on tradingview and backtest it, pinescript is limited though

market making is like grid botting only it's not static grid your just posting limit orders above and below the midprice at like 0.2% spread, right over the fee minimum and trying to milk volatility

this has also never worked which is why I switched to signal bots, the risk / reward is way off; if your market making and the coin trends in either direction your fucked, so the next logical step is make it smarter by only running it when it should be long (TA), and then realizing it's shit and then running straight signal bots.

making 1000 trade a day at 0.2% is like 2% profit / day averaged out. the only people making money doing this I think are whales doing it with zero fees and major coins where risk is lowest

>> No.51585311

So why aren't you trading with the whales anon? If they operate on quantitative rulesets derived from price action it should be a piece of cake.

>> No.51585421
File: 335 KB, 1242x1054, 3707701E-5CAE-48D7-9AD6-E86629D1A0A9.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]

you didn't see this drop coming, huh?

>> No.51585433
File: 482 KB, 1242x1333, 308130A8-25A3-48FA-A6EF-24180192CC62.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]

or this one, huh? And yes I'm hiding it besides the flash, but you can't figure out what I'm looking at with just the flash

>> No.51585444
File: 326 KB, 1073x1289, EE629887-068F-40A5-BB34-1A5FBDC675B1.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]

Ya. "Astrology". Lmao

>> No.51585458

Very convincing statistical argument anon. The expected value of your strategy must me enormous.

>> No.51585463

>one time
Retard midwit. I'm not going to post every fucking one. It has about a 90% success rate if you count them individually.
>it's not 100%? It doesn't work then!

>> No.51585479

this is not helping the drug addiction
>daily chart
this is why it seems like TA should work, maybe not 20%/day work but above fucking zero work.

i need to backoff the 4hour / daily

>> No.51585483

>Prepare for the barrage of geniuses who don't know the difference between probability of profit and expected value
Hey look, the TA-tard was more predictable than the makret.

>> No.51585509

>i need to backoff the 4hour / daily
you make no sense. You can clearly see the swing work and yet you want to stick to the 1m? The hell?
That's not a counter-argument. Post your IQ

>> No.51585521

>Post your IQ
Why? I could say 200 and you'd just say 201. I can't help but notice you still haven't posted the expectation value of your strategy.

>> No.51585527


of course its a lie. its astrology for men.

>> No.51585551

>expectation value of your strategy.
90% success rate with a 2:1 ratio (minimally) for the individual trade.
Not going to spoonfeed more than that. If you think those huge ass swings when the flash happened is a coincidence, you're simply mentally disabled. Simple as.

>> No.51585559

Also I want to see actual IQ. Even some shitty ass test you can find online. I can't take your childish responses seriously. I want to know what kind of idiot I'm dealing with. Yes, screenshots are a thing. You can screenshot results. Don't know how to screenshot? Figure it out.

>> No.51585720

>posts success rate again
>reee I'm smarter than you
Pottery. What's next? More sanctimonious posturing? Some comical misuse of the Kelly criterion? Read a stats book you fucking underage b&.

>> No.51585736

>Read a stats book you fucking underage b&.
90% success rate by counting them individually, you fucking retard. 2:1 ratio, you fucking retard.

POST YOUR FUCKING IQ. You keep posting retarded shit. A sad attempt of a rebuttal. I'm dealing with a literal retard, aren't I?

>> No.51585756

What's funny too is how you have 0 counter argument. You're simply dead set that "TA must be astrology" and so btfos like this: >>51585421
Don't matter to you. I could post 100 pics and have 90 of them show a success and you'd STILL say it's astrology. Fucking hell, you have the brain of a monkey.

>> No.51585810

post profits you retard, hurr muh hindsight charts
post your 90% successful rates and/or post your next prediction, your sperging convinces no one

>> No.51585875

unlike the chart sperg i have hard numbers of failure
Here's the biggest winner right now:

SAND3S-USDT 1 hour
(best backtest over 6000 candles)
>all ema's from 0-800 tested, 800*800 = 640,000 combinations
EMA 1: 51
EMA 2: 247
Profit Factor: 3.17
Total Profit: 435%
Drawdown: -10.5%
Average Max Low in trade: -18%
Average Max High in trade: 71%
Trades: 17
Winrate: 52%

currently sitting at -23% after 2 days and i'm about to kill it. i could cope and say it aped in at the worst possible moment and this will level out but it always apes in at the worst possible moment and it never levels out

>> No.51585881

>post profits you retard, hurr muh hindsight charts
>post your 90% successful rates and/or post your next prediction, your sperging convinces no one
Not home rn. If you guys want to ignore data, cool. Stay retarded. Also even if it were flashing soon, there's no way in fuck I'd post about it. If anything it was retarded of me to even show the pics above even though I hid a lot of it. I should have just let you midwits stay as midwits instead of try to correct stupidity.

>> No.51585892

>biggest winner
>down 23%

>> No.51586021
File: 64 KB, 832x690, whenitscoldpepaisdragon.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]

>It doesn't matter what indicator you pick
>imagine not knowing indicators are laggy
>imagine not knowing what laggy indicator means
kek, NGMI

>> No.51586101

>imagine not knowing indicators are laggy
it doesn't matter if it's laggy or not if it's useless

"leading" indicators are just mean reversion, instead of following the trend your shorting the top and buying the bottom and if it actually does trend your fucked

>> No.51586135

and further "leading" indicators are just running stoch over existing lagging indicators; all "leading" indicators are a filter over lagging indicators

"leading" vs "lagging" is a meme. leading indicators only try to predict the behavior of lagging indicators, they are variations of "lagging" indicators.

the only leading indicators are general top / bottom signals from doing the opposite of what the average retard NPC / female is doing which is again mean reversion.

>> No.51586309

I have spent over 10,000 hours studying and backtesting thousands of possible TA strategies. I can assure you it is not possible to solely use technical analysis to make consistent profits on a long enough time frame.

>> No.51587018

so don't simple MACD strategies like this work?

>> No.51587306

>arbitrary EMA 200 shitfilter
>arbitrary 1.5:1 take profit and stop loss
i haven't tested with these contraints. to measure indicator accuracy every signal must be taken.

they're profit tracking is also flawed, they are measuring against raw profit not against a hodl bag.

if the BTC pumped 50% they would have they would have sold at +10% and marked it as a +10% win, instead of what it actually was; a 40% loss (compared to hold).

if your comparing to hold every "not long" is a short, no different than if you were actively shorting instead of simply not longing

>> No.51587420

some autist actually programmed this exact strategy and labeled it the macd ema trashing rush strategy so you can backtest it

it pretty much exposes trading rush as a complete fraud their outright lying and backtesting doesn't show what they are saying. notice in the vid they explicitly don't have timeframe information on the chart, you don't know if it's the 1min or the 1hour.

i just tested their shit strategy on BTC and every time frame is 1% profit at best with 25% winrate with default settings, and they don't mention anything about chart fitting the values.

>> No.51587551

>Not home rn
yeah, and you just happen to have these shitty charts in your phone just to shitpost them here for any skeptical midwits
>hurrr made a lot of moneyz with muh superior TA
>n-n-no I'm not gonna post proofs
go back to r/trading and stay there

>> No.51587580

MACD works perfectly. Sounds like you have no clue what you're doing.

>> No.51587783

I just use TA to determine whether a market is uptrending or downtrending and where the price has support and resistance. Then I set my buy and sell orders according to what I see.
Was TA supposed to do anything else?

>> No.51587993

>I just use TA to determine whether a market is uptrending or downtrending
if this was accurate at all you could just hold when the market is uptrending and short when the market is downtrending and autopilot print money. it's not, which means it's not even worth doing that and you should avoid even looking at the TA

>> No.51588081

You still need to know when to buy in or sell. TA helps make those decisions. People buy the top or fail to sell near it because they make these decisions blindly.
Whether or not you use any TA or which indicators you use is less than important than your own risk management strategy. But TA used properly and with a realistic understanding of what it can and can't do is valuable.

>> No.51588129

buy low and sell high you absolute retard, why the fuck would you complicate this shit further?
>le rsi, le macd, le ema
all of them are WORTHLESS or lagging

>> No.51588312

You're clearly stressed out about the pox on your lips, so I will explain nicely.
If you're buying low, then you're blindly assuming the price is going to go up.
It doesn't work that way. It can go lower and it can crab for eternity. This ties up your capital and means you miss other opportunities.
I buy when I see convincing evidence that my investment will pay off because I'm a trader, not a gambler.
As for selling, I'd love to know how you know when to sell if you don't know when to buy.
/biz/ is filled with anons who got lucky buying some coin that did a 50x but then they never sold even as the price gradually fell back down.
If you make investment decisions based on plebbit memes, I'm sure your porfolio is as red as that pox.

>> No.51588481
File: 24 KB, 400x336, 1637153870274.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]

people like OP are midwits who complain about what they dont understand

>> No.51588925

half of TA dictates you do the exact opposite of buy low sell high, you buy high sell low aka trend following.

buy low sell high is mean reversion trying to predict the future not riding a trend

>> No.51590099
File: 182 KB, 1242x242, DB610E9E-9ABF-4BD5-BC01-A9522461932B.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]

ya, it's called tradingview, nigger. I'm home now. I have a small short, but it's not using the method in the pics above since they are rare as shit i.e. barely flashes in a year to begin with. I use big money when that happens. I'm using small money rn because it's not based on the macro. It's a mid term trade.

>> No.51590119

fyi this one might be closed eom

>> No.51590153

>he thinks he can predict the future solely based on previous prices

How are your lines going to factor in the Russian war or the ETH merge? Also how are you going to factor in everyone else trying to beat the market?

TA is an entry tool not a predictive tool

>> No.51590763
File: 7 KB, 497x340, 8hda5vfnmo971.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]

>"TA is just part of the decision"

Makes no fucking sense. If there is no statistical advantage to TA then what the fuck does it matter? None of the indicators do anything, nor do candlesticks. These are very easy to backtest with minimal coding skill on tradingview.

"Support and resistance" are not real. They're literally just noise. Price action is mostly random with a trend or occasional major volatility. There is also no way to predict the trend using past pric action. To demonstrate this, here is a randomly generated stock chart. Look at the obvious trend? Wouldn't it be obvious to buy on that line or sell when it falls below? Except it doesn't fucking matter, because each tick is just a coinflip.

>> No.51590946

I swear 90% of this board is filled with actual dumbasses

>> No.51590967

Even if TA was worthless, enough people follow TA to the point that it has an effect on the market.

Imagine if there was a coinflip at the beginning of the day that determined if a highly reputable source said that it would be a bull market or a bear market day. If 15% of the market believed this source it would have an effect on the market and you should also take it into consideration even if it is a coinflip.

TA cannot tell you what the market will do but it will say to you "we are at a resistance point, pay attention" or "we are at a support point, pay attention"

>> No.51591099

>pic related
I was blind, now I see

>> No.51591280

you want a real trading redpill? 99% of traders lose money and guess what rule the vast majority of them follow? They follow the rule that you need to trade according to what's happening on higher timeframes.

The truth? Timeframes above 3 minutes are meaningless IF you're trying to predict what's going to happen next. If you're trying to see what has happened, they'll tell you more than the lower timeframes but that's about all they're good for. You just can't make longterm predictions, it's silly to think you can when there are so many factors at play. These big 15% fucking 4 hour candles, what can they possibly tell you about anything that will happen? But at the 3 minute and less, you can actually make a decent bet on where it's going to move to and get in early. Trends and mean reversions start quietly and then pick-up in momentum, you can't see that on the 15 minute.

Now the move you bet on might only last 15 minutes, it might last 3 days, but at least you have a prayer, unlike the retards drawing triangles on the 4 hourly and then bringing their bias down to the lower timeframes. Try and trade exclusively off of the lower timeframes, you'll eventually get the hang of it if you keep at it - assuming you're trading crypto pairs

>> No.51591326

>They follow the rule that you need to trade according to what's happening on higher timeframes.
No, you stupid fuck. Other way around. Most people lose because they are scalpers aka day traders. You're a walking meme

>> No.51591342

TA is WORTHLESS on low time frames. You'll learn that soon enough.

>> No.51591377

kek imagine timing your buy signal to the #1 ultramax normie signal possible. what ema length we talking about big dog? 200? 50?

>> No.51591482

you need to analyze the data at lower timeframes, you can't tell whether a move is picking up steam without it. On the higher timeframes, by the time indicators/TA gives you the signal, it's too late.

>> No.51591548

No. At best it can make an entry slightly better, but big time frames is what you're supposed to look at before even thinking about entering a trade

>> No.51591808

its percentages you brainlet

just like losing poker with a good hand you can lose money with a good trade

>> No.51591851

if you can profitably trade off the 4 hourly, then do it. But you should consider that tradingview has a lookback range of 5000 candles. That's over 10 days of data that you can process using indicators. Anything you can discern at the 4 hourly can be clearly observed at the lower timeframes.

And a 'slightly better' entry is what makes you profitable. The profit you squeeze out of those 'slightly better' entries cover your losses and makes a positive winrate possible. By the way, if you're shooting for 2%+ moves, you'll never see them coming on the higher timeframes. You'll be coming in after it has picked-up momentum and moved considerably, then you'll be praying that it continues instead of being in a take profit phase and looking for the next move

>> No.51591856


All of those suck you need to use BBWP and correlate volatility expansion with RSI direction

>t. 120% this week using these indicators with options

>> No.51591903

>I buy when I see convincing evidence that my investment will pay off because I'm a trader, not a gambler.
congrats, you said absolutely nothing meaningful
>convincing evidence
amazing TA bro

>> No.51591926

wtf is this shit nigger? I too can open up a $10 leveraged position to back my larps
where the fuck are proofs of your 90% success rate?

>> No.51592159

It's 1k in profit, dumbass. Not 10 dollars. It's a low leverage 10k position. I'm also not giving you the names of the shit I look at. You aren't entitled to it, midwit. Better that you don't believe me.

>> No.51592207

>I don't bother to learn anything so it's not real
I'm sure you've gotten really far in life with that mentality, Lmao

>> No.51592261

>Except it doesn't fucking matter, because each tick is just a coinflip.
that coin is clearly trending

>> No.51592341

>what ema length we talking about big dog? 200? 50?
all possible ema lengths between 0 and 800
bot backtests all 640,000 and then picks the one with the highest profit factor and some shitfilters.

often it doesn't even pass basic shitfilters (profit > 0) and ALL 640,000 ARE BAD

>> No.51592510

>the entire world sees a simple simon ema cross
>infinite normies put their 100 bux in
>sell into them
>make them scared and either trigger stop loss for the smart ones or panic sell at a loss the stupid ones

>> No.51592890

>On the higher timeframes, by the time indicators/TA gives you the signal, it's too late.
This is flat out wrong. If you bought BTC in July 2020 when the June monthly candle opened and closed above the 50M MA at just under 10k, you'd have been quite early by /biz/ standards.

>> No.51593090

>If you bought a single coin at this exact candle when it crossed this exact EMA this single time and didn't continue to trade it at all ever again you would have been rich

>> No.51594288

I don't know what else to tell you. You'd still be in profit (for now) if you followed the long term trend. The statement that you're too late if you buy according to indicators on long term charts is laughably wrong and ridiculous.

>> No.51594533
File: 48 KB, 496x389, monthly.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]

>You'd still be in profit (for now) if you followed the long term trend. The statement that you're too late if you buy according to indicators on long term charts is laughably wrong and ridiculous.
>f you bought BTC in July 2020 when the June monthly candle opened and closed above the 50M MA
there's barely 50 fucking bars lol
how are you supposed to backtest this.
nice you picked EMA 50 because that is your only option.
>fails on 1m
>fails on 3m
>fails on 5m
>fails on 15m
>fails on 1hr
>fails on 4hr
>fails on 1D
>let's ride a 70% stoploss and 60 candles

>> No.51595126

The 50 MA is consistently reliable as an indicator of trend and always has been. Whether price is above or below it on the time frame I'm buying on isn't the only option, but it is the first one I look at.
BTC right now is under the 50 MA on the daily, weekly and monthly candles. It is losing value for anyone buying it and the safe bet is that it will continue to do so.
If you really think BTC is going to be worth it and you're happy to buy at this price or lower, fine. But it's fair for me to warn anyone who buys now that they're opposing the market and the market is unforgiving.

>> No.51596285

the problem here is the timeframe is irrelevant.
6000 candles is 6000 candles
if it doesn't work on one dataset it's not gonna work on another; on higher timeframes it's impossible to backtest because there isn't enough candles

>> No.51596923

I'm saying that if you see a key resistance level broken and now providing support on a longer time frame chart, you are absolutely not too late to buy. That claim by the other anon is retarded.
You're either in an uptrend or you're not. If you're buying in a downtrend, you're gambling. If you make money doing that, more power to you. But anyone who has latefagged into BTC from December to June didn't "buy low".
Maybe the guy who said that primarily day trades shit coins. If so, then sure. The monthly candles are totally meaningless in that situation. I thought we were talking about BTC.
In BTC's case and other assets, there are indicators that can show when to buy on longer time frames.
If it turns out you're wrong, then sell. I even said above that your own risk management strategy matters more than TA. TA can just show you where those opportunities are.

>> No.51598298

>2:1 risk reward ratio
>90% winrate.
That's a brainlet tier larp faggot, i'm sure you're a math iliterate. A realistic winrate of 2:1 i'ts between 20%-50% at it's best, as OP showed you on his backtest. Go back to WSB you dumb fucking retard.

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