/biz/ - Business & Finance

[Anonymous No.51540917]

Ausfags, crash when?

[Anonymous No.51540926]

America crashes first. We follow the us markets. Until then we slow bleed

[Anonymous No.51540935]

>>51540917
home prices lag 6~12 months behind the interest rate.

[Anonymous No.51540944]

>>51540917
i would start to think about Australia in hard geographical terms.

[Anonymous No.51540951]

>>51540926
When do you think? I'm seeing more and more places for sale for longer. Also rentals seem to be dropping in price / becoming more available.

[Anonymous No.51541135]

>>51540951
12 months probably. The catalyst is obviously interest rates. 2.4m Australians are between zero and two months ahead on their mortgage and they'll be flushed out, however it can take up to 18 months for monetary policy to have it's full effect on the economy.

Regardless, we're already 5 months into the downturn. I think 2017s downturn lasted for 18-20 months, and household debt is higher than in 2017. I'm estimated this downturn last 22+ months.

Be very afraid when the Ukraine situation wraps up, that would likely be your 4 weeks warning.

[Anonymous No.51541160]

>>51540917
Who tf cares when the crash happens. Just be smart enough to buy when it does, property always wins in the long run assuming u don’t buy some retarded rural property. Also, it’ll only crash hard for states that were already overvalued prior to Covid (mostly looking at Syd).

[Anonymous No.51541185]

>>51541160
Not true, it will crash everywhere however those overpriced cities will be hammered the hardest. Knowing when the crash will occur is how you turn 20k into 500k shorting property funds just to go out and buy your dream house on the cheap.

[Anonymous No.51541340]

>>51541160
Because I'm getting old and want a home
>>51541135
>>51541185
Thanks I'll keep a look out. I remember another anon saying winter is always slower and to look and see how the market performs as we head into warmer months. That'll give a good idea if a bigger crash is coming sooner than later.

[Anonymous No.51541362]

>>51540917
boomers would rather import 50 million migrants in to pump their bags than let housing fall back to reasonable levels

[Anonymous No.51541537]

>>51540917
Never now that Labor are increasing immigration, treasurer also talking about increasing taxes LOL

[Anonymous No.51541690]

>>51541185
Tbh, you’re not wrong. I’ve just personally had bad luck trying to time shorts but that’s 100% my inability to short safely. If you’re educated enough to time the markets (and you have the time to look at charts) then yeah, go for it.
I’m also a little salty because I mortgaged at the top and now I’m forced to sit back and watch the slow bleed. But I’d rather be a fat disgusting landlord rn instead of a renter. Probs gonna build a rental granny flat to squeeze value out of it in the mean time.

[Anonymous No.51541793]

>>51541690
rip, but i hope you have your repayments sorted. i know a lot of close friends who have jumped in to the property market spurred on by their parents inability to consider anything other than YoU GOTTtA GeTA HOOOOOME.

If you're in it for the long run I wouldnt worry too too much, shit happens. If you're interested in the markets there's bountiful opportunity to make back losses on your property with good trades. just buy shit when the market crashes, by the time your property value and the stock market recovers youll be ahead again

[Anonymous No.51541841]

>>51541362
>>51541537
If you’re too bogan brained to understand that increasing immigration stimulates the economy and helps workforce shortages then you should move to the US where you can be fat and retarded in peace.

[Anonymous No.51541911]

>>51541841
if your country needs constant immigration to keep the economy running well then there is a big problem there. Canada is the same way, if immigration stops our economy is fucking TOAST. Funnily enough we have the same retarded housing market.

[Anonymous No.51541937]

>>51541793
I’m considering investing in stocks more seriously but I’m pretty torn between buying stocks or making repayments. Ik on average the s&p500 makes more gains than property but I’ll just have to research and make up my mind.

[Anonymous No.51541981]

>>51541937
We don’t need constant immigration. But during an unprecedented global pandemic where the liberal government responded so fucking terribly that boomers stopped voting for them, we need a short term immigration increase to cope. idk about Canada tho, sounds pretty shit.

[Anonymous No.51542007]

>>51541841
immigration does stimulate the economy, however reduces real wages. the supply of labor increases with immigration far more than natural population increase through births, and an increase in supply of labor lowers the price of said labor, ceteris paribus.

economists dont like this topic because the statistics are extremely racist. immigration is not black and white, there are very clear costs and benefits. you're all right on your opinions in this however you have to see both sides.

How low will you allow real wages to fall in Australia before you conclude that immigration is a net negative for the majority of the country? Obviously if you are skilled and invested in the markets its a no brainer to allow immigrants in, however what about the countless unskilled Australians? they would absolutely argue against immigration.

[Anonymous No.51542073]

>>51541937
maintain a good balance of your wealth across your investments. if you've recently picked up a property which holds majority of your wealth, your exposure to the property market may be above where it should be at current. Branch out into stocks, crypto etc. your superannuation will likely also be exposed to the property market in some way.

eggs in one basket yada yada yada... i know its boring however mathematically speaking diversity in your portfolio is absolutely the best approach.

[Anonymous No.51542265]

>>51542007
>>51542073
Very based, balanced opinions. I admit I’m biased in favour of immigration because I’m not a tradie and I don’t work in an industry that’ll be impacted by an increase in immigrants.

I’ve made my crypto investments and I’m enduring the bear market. I think you’re right and my next move will probably be into stocks. I’m open to any suggestions

[Anonymous No.51542280]

Either supply increases or demand decreases. I don't see either happening in the near future.

[Anonymous No.51542696]

>>51542265
If you're not a tradie, your opinion doesn't matter tbqh. Unless you're a business owner that actually serves the community, get a real job ya lazy cunt

[Anonymous No.51543033]

>>51542265
So far you're salty crashing about housing and bias in favour of immigration. May I enquire your ethnicity?

[Anonymous No.51543083]

>>51542696
based closed minded dare iced coffee chugging bogan

[Anonymous No.51543132]

>>51542280
Demand is absolutely decreasing because people who could previously borrow 1.4 million can now only borrow 800,000

[Anonymous No.51543198]

>>51541841
On this retarded 2D take you started with, I'll say I work in major projects for one of the big 4 banks, we offshore or use foreigners in country for everything, management bonuses are based on percentage of 'minority' staff which includes how close to 50% of their staff are women, and every aspect of business is being decimated by the low quality of staff. They'll work for cheaper, and when I see a department with the same headcount as another but is a third cheaper, I KNOW from experience that code quality will be dogshit, the project will fail on first implementation and a big 4 consulting firm review of practices will occur, lagging by a year behind when that area crashes.
Mass importing immigrants doesn't work, 1 because they're lower quality workers (I don't give a shit about your individual experiences with shit whites, I'm taking on the scale of I need 150+ people to work together to deliver a solution that impacts every critical system in the bank), and when you take Indians for example, their massive in-group bias means they hire and cover for their own.
When you drive out the competent whites because they get sick of endless delays and unusable delivered code/authored procedures, the industry knowledge loss actually cripples the company.
At a major bank, we always make enough that we can an afford to be complete retards and waste tens of millions per internal project, and still turn an insane end of year profit in the billions.
But these same hiring practices happen everywhere and it murders other companies. There are both monetary and policy pressures to make hiring moves that lower the average aptitude of employees and it means that the rate of progress and ability to adapt in just about all industries is on a downturn.

That's the kikespeak version for you. If I thought you were human, there would be several major cultural erosion impacts to talk about, but I won't insult either of us by pretending that's an area of interest to you.

[Anonymous No.51543382]

Immigration increases growth

That’s it, that’s the argument

Business’s and Treasury loves growth because it increases their revenue

Immigration will continue to be lobbied for by business and treasury and until a political party acknowledges the economic downsides to immigration (they won’t) they will continue to pull the immigration lever

[Anonymous No.51543427]

>>51543198
I don’t think that any white collar work should have a lower aptitude to accomodate lesser skilled individuals regardless of ethnicity. To an extent, it happens in my industry when we see multi-million dollar productions mishandled by international marketing companies who can’t even market their own films let alone ours. But I’m not talking about white collar work, I’m talking about manual fucking labor which requires no aptitude to: show up, do half a job, punch darts and drink drive home.

Idk what “cultural erosion” you’re talking about but the majority of “Aussie culture” is disgusting cringe shit that I’d love to see flushed down the toilet. Idk how much I believe your LARP about banking, but pretty fucking terrible if true.

[Anonymous No.51543777]

>>51541937
>>51541690
if you bought property at the top of last year then you got midwit filtered hard. now you are in the same boat as all the normies and millenial women with HR jobs who are trying to focus on their 'career' while owning a shitty little apartment near the city.
>i want to invest more into stocks
its too late now all your equity is tied up in real estate and you will be forced to watch your zestimate go down while interest rates slightly keep increasing in the coming years meanwhile crypto might even go through another 2 bull runs by then. the best thing to do is just to sell right now and cut your losses an start investing in stocks and crypto an go back to renting but i doubt you will do that. Once people buy a house they get attached to it. it is such a bad way to go about investing. Buying real estate should be the last play that you make for when you retire rather than trying to build up a housing portfolio through wagecucking over several years. so many people try and do this an get burned out half way

[Anonymous No.51543824]

>be me
>Stable income
>No debts
>Bank needs $180000 before considering a loan.

How the fuck is anyone able to do this. My parents mortgage was originally 80k.

[Anonymous No.51543853]

>>51540917
That'll be 1.2 million plus stamp duty thanks.
On another note why is housing so fucking soulless these days?

[test No.51544527]

>>51541135

>he doesn't know the Ukraine situation won't wrap up for decades because NATO want a protracted civil war to launder money through, and extract profit from via the military industrial complex, as with Afghanistan

[Anonymous No.51546433]

>>51543853
Don't forget home insurance, a building inspector before purchase, connection fees for utilities and other bullshit the bank made you sign up to for the morgage. All for a half acre of land with no back yard on the outskirts of a city
Australia, one of the richest countrys in world thanks our politicains making bank and refusing to fix the problem

[Anonymous No.51546778]

Basically all Australian real estate is ~80% overvalued. Change my mind.