EU Housing Bubble

[Anonymous No.51519704]

Riddle me this homeowners and tell me why I'm making a bad decision. Everyone I know IRL is telling me that buying a house or condo is a good financial decision because you "build equity" and that muh prices always go up.

>be in Sweden
>75% of the aggregate value of all outstanding mortgages are on 3-month variable rates
>interest rates were sub-3% for years and are now rising
>one of the highest housing appreciations in the western world
>15% downpayment required on any house or condo

Am I completely fucking retarded or is this not bubble territory? How is renting in these circumstances NOT the best way to approach this market?

[Anonymous No.51519734]

Fuck sweden

t. Finland

[Anonymous No.51519747]

>>51519704
I'm thinking of just renting a cool condo and pay an up-front lease for 6 or 12 months and just ride this wave, because unless the central bank reverses course and destroys our currency I seriously cannot see how the economic equation balances in these circumstances.

$500K USD buys you a two-room shitbox in a non-nigger and non-redneck area (with a decent lifestyle), so if I want to live in the city would it not be wise to wait and buy a condo cash when prices eventually collapse?

[Anonymous No.51519773]

>>51519734
Don't think your circumstances are so far off from us. At least we have our own currency, you guys are slaves to EURIBOR.

[Anonymous No.51519789]

Fuck all Nordic countries. You can get a fucking castle in Poland or Hungary for 1/3 of the price of a small block in a nig invested city in Scamdinavia. If you can work remotely, don't even consider buying a fucking cabin there.

t. Norway

[Anonymous No.51519797]

>>51519704
i've beeen saying this bro. I think this is the correct assessment.
I'm hoping for a juicy fucking drop in prices. Increased interest rates coinciding with higher electricity bills should could rape this market hard in my opinion.
t. swedenbro

[Anonymous No.51519896]

>>51519797
Especially considering the salaries people are living on here. Very few people in Stockholm are earning over 100k SEK a month and from what I understand a lot of second home purchases as well as second condo purchases are being financed by appreciation on the original investment.

I know of at least three people who are financing condos in Stockholm with prices that they seriously cannot afford and financing the downpayment with increased mortgages on apartments they already own.

[Anonymous No.51519930]

Doesn't Sweden have a good economy? It couild slow down, but housing generally does goes up, depends on demographics also. Since people are talking about it, it's probably the take off phase of a bubble and not near the end, if there are no defaults yet, wait for them to go up for a year or so, housing is very slow probably still strong now.

Way more like for some southern european countries to be fucked. Worse economy and high rates of variable loans -> more defauilts.

US no bubble, no matter what retards tell you. I think commodities will get significantly more expensive, and being in housing actually not bad in that scenario

[Anonymous No.51519935]

>>51519896
sheesh i had no idea people were doing that hahaha. that is so fucked. HAHAHAHAHAHAHA
we'll see what happens i guess. Im sticking to renting for now.

[Anonymous No.51519951]

>>51519930
What's gonna happen is a ton of building will happen and crush demand but it can take many years. In fact, higher interest rate changes slows it down making housing appear weaker because prices can drop short term

[Anonymous No.51520067]

>>51519704
Of course the housing bubble is a bubble, anybody who tinks otherwise is a retard. Thing is though, as longas we keep importing third world retards, there will be a lack of housing keeping the market afloat. And by the looks of it that's not stopping any time soon. So if you can buy a house or pay it of within 30 years your making a solid investment.

[Anonymous No.51520069]

>>51519930
No European country would qualify as having a good economy. The only true way to be rich in Europe is inheriting it. If you are hyper successful the best you can do is making double of what no education retards make, and with high taxes even that would get butchered. There is literally no way out of it. And the fact that a paying mortgage loan for 30 years for an extremely mediocre house or apartment block shows how mentally ill Europeans are. I wish I were born in America.

[Anonymous No.51520079]

>>51519773
I know, I just had to say it. It's a custom in finland to hate your neighbors

[Anonymous No.51520104]

>>51519704
>wait until rising rates makes ever sweed go bust on their mortgage
>buy the dip
that easy

[Anonymous No.51520120]

>>51519704
For as long as there are literally billions of third worlders who want to leech off your income and shove their BBC into your blonde daughters there won't be an end to the housing shortage in Sweden.

[Anonymous No.51520128]

That shit is gonna dump 50% over the next year

[Anonymous No.51520144]

>>51520069
Isn't your birth rate super fucking low. Like how many houses do you need if one fifth your population is going to die in the next 20~30 years?

[Anonymous No.51520160]

>>51520144
You have no idea how many sand niggers they and the rest of our countries import yearly.

[Anonymous No.51520199]

>>51520160
that sucks. Mexican in the US are potty trained and do work hard. They are just loud and drive like shit.

[Anonymous No.51520219]

>>51520144
Check the housing market statistics around the globe. The highest price increase is in the most developed counties. There will be ne er ending demand for it, as rich people don't care about the social consequences of their actions as long as it brings profit for them. If even half of the population dies they will sell their assets to some rich oil Arabs.

[Anonymous No.51520267]

>>51520160
Not true. There are no immigrants coming from sandnigger nations. They either blocked from coming here or pass here as refugees. The only solution is changing refugee rules, as it makes no fucking sense right now. I know some sandniggers who were "persecuted" for being islamic terrorists in their home countries and they receive cheap housing and 2000 euros monthly as refugees in Europe.

[Anonymous No.51520425]

>>51519704
Housing in Sweden is already down 15%? So of course prices are going down, the question is for how long. But there is no reason not to wait at least another year.

[Anonymous No.51520483]

>>51520425
>already down 15%
>isn't winter yet

[Anonymous No.51521471]

>>51520483
>>51520425

Swedefag here, having the exact same thought as you guys. Come winter and the energy bills start going through the roof people who are already strapped for cash are going to be letting go of properties, and buyer demand at the very least will continue to drop - I would believe.

That is assuming that this entire market isnt fraudulent and artificially propped up. Unfortunately I know the american markets better than my own, but I wouldnt be surprised if this is the case.

Anyway, might be some decent finds coming up this winter or after it.

[Anonymous No.51521742]

>>51521471
I'm suprized that leaders are okay with home prices getting so out of control that families never form.

[Anonymous No.51521940]

>>51519704
Half Swede/Brit here currently living in England and thinking of getting a house in Sweden (Blekinge). I was originally planning on moving back and buying something around now, but that's obviously not happening so decided to stay and work for a while longer and save up some more until I see a better opportunity to jump in.
I've got enough for a down payment on a 3M sek house no problem; but I might just aim for ~1M in the bank, I imagine furniture + electronics etc. will cost a lot more than you'd expect. Plus it'd be nice not to have to worry about bills or anything for a while.

I'm not terribly worried about it being in a bubble to be honest, prices over here are A LOT higher, I just want the interest rates to come down.

[Anonymous No.51521980]

>>51521471
Having a second home is very common in Sweden; there's also a lot of Danes and Germans who own places in the south. I definitely see a lot of people selling those.

[Anonymous No.51522015]

>>51521980
what type of 2nd homes are we talking?
>2 miles (20km) down a dirt road
>heating is a fireplace
>no internet
>no trash pick up
or
>another house used as investment in the popular part of town?

[Anonymous No.51522028]

>>51521940
The interest rates are never going down this low again

[Anonymous No.51522053]

>>51522028
I hope not. Low interest rates created this massive bubble.

[Anonymous No.51522104]

You can talk about this by joining Estonian Discord at puts dot ee
A lot of us in Estonia own property

[Anonymous No.51522118]

>>51519704
Renting and buying cheapies at the bottom in 12-24 months is obviously the best play here. Buying the top of a real estate bubble will financial decimate you. Property prices take decades to recover after bubbles and this is the biggest one ever.

[Anonymous No.51522168]

>>51522015
Summer homes 10-20 minutes outside of town.
Although my grandparents place didn't even have running water, lol, most aren't nearly as bad as that, a lot of places even have fibre.

Even then, the rising tide lifts all ships, prices of primary residence will adjust along with them.
>>51522028
We'll see, if they seem to stay high, I might just jump in with a higher deposit. I heard if you go in with a 30% deposit your amortisation rate will drop from 2 -> 1%, which might be worthwhile.

[Anonymous No.51522459]

unvax kraut here finishing cs MSc, will try to get a fully remote job and been thinking about buying one of those 20km dirt road off houses to live in more or less permanently. Preferably Norway, but Sweden will do just not in the south, latitude 61+ North. How can i profit of this?

[Anonymous No.51522517]

Yes we have an extreme housing bubble. The average salary is like 30k SEK and an average house in a Stockholm suburb costs 5mil+ SEK. Where are normal people supposed to live? We need police officers, nurses and service workers but the city will be void of them if this doesn't turn around. I'm 33 and earning a good salary (40k+ SEK) but I will never be able to own my own home if prices keep going up.

[Anonymous No.51522959]

>>51522517
This is why I've been working abroad for the past 6 years.

[Anonymous No.51523052]

>>51522459
norway is pretty, but they went way more authoritarian than sweden during c0nvid. Pretty much permanently turned me off to how their government runs things in regards to shit like this.

I guess a norwegian would propound norway over sweden just like i will pick sweden over norway. But in regards to laws its supposedly harder to own land and such in Norway. Obviously you can do it, but there were politicians in sweden that called norway "the last soviet state" because it was such an annoying shithole in regards to ownership of land and properties.

Norway is defo very pretty though, if youre going there, go to stavanger or bergen and get a house. Not sure how tax incentives are in norway for stock trading. We have something called ISK accounts that can be used for a quite attractive tax cut when trading stocks. Just some things to consider.

[Anonymous No.51524089]

>>51519704
I thought the standard was 10% down?

[Anonymous No.51525259]

>>51521940
thoughts on one of those (semi) rural "summer houses", such as 70 sqm with a half acre of land for ~ 50k USD? Seems like a fair deal in a great landscape. Property taxes would also be minimal.

[Anonymous No.51525305]

not from europe, but housing as an investment only makes sense when you aren't wealthy enough to get better returns with your money.
contrived example, but if you were early to crypto, the difference in payment + mortgage vs rent for the same property with that renting surplus put into bitcoin would have netted you orders of magnitude more wealth at the end, even with downturns like the one we're in.

obviously times have changed, we're in a global recession, house prices are looking toppy, and crypto is no longer early, but the point still stands.

[Anonymous No.51525323]

>>51520120
>another "white" (brown-eye'd) american can't stop thinking about bestiality

[Anonymous No.51526134]

>>51519704
Canada is the canary in the coal mine
houses fell 25% here since February
global real estate is fucked!
interest rates will crush housing

[Anonymous No.51526149]

>>51520128
in real terms yes, but over 5 years imo
nominally who knows, central banks might capitulate half way through

[Anonymous No.51526750]

>>51519704
>How is renting in these circumstances NOT the best way to approach this market?
Because our old system of rent control is coming to an end. The "left-wing" Social Democrats tried to get rid of it last term but now the new RW govt will finish the job. Rents will go from 6'000 SEK to 15'000 SEK in my Stockholm neighbourhood overnight.

And the rate hikes are not going to stay. We're in the biggest energy crisis since the 1970s. It's a twice-per-century happening. You don't plan for a few years, you plan for decades.

[Anonymous No.51527263]

>>51525259

I wouldn't mind at all, honestly.
Been oogling this one a bit: https://www.hemnet.se/bostad/villa-3rum-svangsta-karlshamns-kommun-hollandarevagen-90-19066819

$70k, 0.4 acres

[Anonymous No.51527877]

1 procent ökning brlder, är det över på riktigt nu?

DOllarn snart på 11

[Anonymous No.51527976]

>>51527263
cozy indeed
so what gives then? Just urban and southern properties overpriced?

[Anonymous No.51527979]

>>51519704
People are retarded. Haven't you figured that out yet?

Houses are not an investment. They are a durable consumption good. Unless you are renting out, then of course they are capital goods.

The reason why housing gets artificially pumped by low interest rates and favourable tax codes is, that they are immobile. If you have all, or most, of your equity in a house, you can't move as easily. That binds you to the state.

The exact opposite is bitcoin, where you can hold your entire networth in your brain and can leave over night any time you want.

So yes, housing is a bubble. Intentionally so. Yes, most normies are retarded. Yes, if you have $100k (what you would need for a down payment for example), it's of course better to buy and hold bitcoin with that, pay rent and save whatever is left at the end of the month again in bitcoin. If you get a good loan with sub 10% interest p.a., you might want to take it out and buy bitcoin with it too, if you can service it and the bitcoin price is relatively low, for example measured with Mayer Multiple.

[Anonymous No.51527986]

>>51519951
>a ton of building will happen

You would be surprised how difficult it is to build a house and how dumb it is to try and shortcut established process. Utility access and location are still a huge deal as is the initial investment in purchasing the land and dealing with the local people who already have a home and don't want more people using their public services.

[Anonymous No.51528044]

>>51519704
I would argue that if the prices doesn't not go down this winter from forced sellers. Perhaps the "bubble" is here to stay.

[Anonymous No.51528254]

I am from Finland and I am now on holiday in Thailand and I have a remote job. I am honestly just considering buying the 15k elite visa for thailand and working here.. Everything so much cheaper and infrastructure quite nice in bangkok
Finland is just getting shittier and shittier, I have a studio apartment in Helsinki which I bought for 140k 5 years ago and now it goes for around 180k
Even the drug problem getting worse and worse there

[Anonymous No.51528399]

>>51519734
Love you too Pekka

[Anonymous No.51528607]

>>51528254
its the same way everywhere desu. Ive also thought about thailand but im not vaxxed.

you still need to get the genocide injection to go over to thailand these days?

[Anonymous No.51528665]

>>51528254
>>51528607
Cont. did some googling. Apparantly you only need to take some antigen cancer inducing test before departure. Nice.

Might join you in thailand Pekka. Not a bad place to be. I thought a while about vietnam due to the low prices. Appartments being stupid cheap in rent etc.

[Anonymous No.51528785]

>>51519704

I get where you are coming from.

For these technical reasons, we should be in a bubble.

But what drives people to spend absurd money for housing is primarily "trygghet". People dont want handgranades thrown in their neighborhoods, and the premium for this is rising in exact proportion to immigration. Housing costs in Sweden is a purity-spiralling whiteflight. Non-screwed areas are getting rare.

98% of people so far, think this is a question of "status" vs "low status" areas, similar to how a XC90 is preferable to a V70. But they have not made the reasons explicit, bc political correctness: what drives "status" and "non status" is a demographical matter.

For this reason, no, house prices in Sweden is not a bubble generally. Renters will sit and wait for the bubble to burst for ten more years or twenty, but i dont think we will see more than -10/20% from here.

Eventually, people will realize that they are paying not for status per se, but for living in non-clown area. Almost every other country in the west have this figured out already, and no one lives in the cities unless they are 95-100%th percentile and can get penthouse. If there is a bubble, its the flats in Sthlm. As Sthlm decends further into darkness, only the topmost 5-10% of properties will be status, those most remote.

If you want to make gains, buy in areas <1h from Stockholm with superior demographics that are still untapped. Mariefred is such a city. Units of 70-140sqm. Places like this is where the middleclass with jobs in Stockholm area will go.

Im 100% locked into investments that i cannot unload, but if i had money to invest for longterm, this is what i would do. Perfect inflation hedge, and will see big gains coming decade. Every area <1h from Sthlm with non-fucked demographics will become Täby shortly, and smaller home sizes preferable to big ones as we will be in ~10 years of recession.

Get out of Sthlm housing market, its gonna blow.

[Anonymous No.51529308]

>>51519797
Eurocucks are literally going to freeze to death this winter. You have much bigger problems on your hand than real estate prices.

[Anonymous No.51529329]

>>51519734
Based Finn chads.
Didn't Germany just nationalize your power infrastructure?
Kek

[Anonymous No.51529353]

>>51520069
How do you qualify a good economy? Be as precise as you can

[Anonymous No.51529376]

>>51521471
Housing has been propped up by money printing, particularly covid prints.
ECB and the fed printed trillions during covid

[Anonymous No.51529404]

You can also get pretty cheap stuff in east germany with no neighbors, pretty insane prices there, saw a huge house that wasnt even a ruin for 14k€

[Anonymous No.51529425]

>>51529404
Meant for
>>51522459

[Anonymous No.51529522]

>>51528254
>buying basedpods in Homocity
there's your problem

[Anonymous No.51529695]

I don’t see how people will afford houses at 3% riksbanken rate. If it goes to that rate, like Swedish banks predict.

[Anonymous No.51530042]

>>51528785
Very good analysis and call anon, might look into this as well. However, I think our change of government will hopefully change things, but maybe this is just wishful thinking.

[Anonymous No.51530172]

>>51519704
The only reason people parrot "house is best investment you'll ever make" is because it's the *only* "investment" they've ever made and will ever make. Houses are depreciating products. Rent is linked to mortgage rates and house depreciation. The only reason why people have made money with house buying is because it provides 5x-10x leverage and bought a house in an area where the population increase rate is higher than the rate at which homes for those people are built.

Do you think that this logic is retarded? Look at areas where there is a population decrease. Look at areas where many residences got built at once and are now vacant. How are those house prices? Would you have gotten the same mortgage (leverage) at the time for those? I don't think so.

[Anonymous No.51530237]

>>51530172
bitcoin will suck the house market capital dry. A house used to be a good investment, now you can get Bitcoin, a house you can carry with you and go where-ever you want. its over for house speculators , flippers,

[Anonymous No.51530279]

>>51519704
I pay 3200 SEK a month for my student apartment which is 22 sqaure meters, electricity and heating is included in the bill. I got my own kitchen as well and free access to a gym and a common laundry room. The city I live in has around 100K inhabitants. I can also go to the nearby studentpub and get a beer for 15kr.

Cheek mate buyoids

[Anonymous No.51530400]

>>51530279
and how long are you going to be a student? How long is the waiting list for an apartment where you live? And what do the ones that aren't on the waiting list cost?

I was also told it can take up to a year before you are allowed to rent. Thats why the former prime minister had to leave his post, if i remember correctly?

https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20160517-this-is-one-city-where-youll-never-find-a-home

[Anonymous No.51530401]

>>51530237
is this your way of saying "idk where to put my money to get a better return" ?

[Anonymous No.51530428]

>>51519704
if at least a 15% downpayment is required, then i don't see this being a crisis
risk comes from subprime mortgages offered at 0-5% deposits usually
if you can save up 15%, you are probably financially stable enough to weather the storm

[Anonymous No.51530831]

>>51530400
>and how long are you going to be a student?
3-4 years
>How long is the waiting list for an apartment where you live?
Regular first-hand contracts for rentals are 10 years

Sweden is very fucked up when it comes to regular rental apartments, the usual way here is to take out a loan and buy an apartment like you would for a house, but you still have to pay a monthly fee for general upkeep in the building that you live in. I think the correct term is condominium.

[Anonymous No.51530865]

>>51530831
>condominium
I meant Housing cooperative

[Anonymous No.51530903]

>>51519734
Do finns ever hold original thoutghs?

[Anonymous No.51532838]

>>51529329
Finland has always been in love with Germany. We've usually been with them until they fuck themselves up due to their autism and we have to turn against them.

[Anonymous No.51532995]

>>51519704
I want a cute swedish gf

[Anonymous No.51533332]

>>51532995
hmmmm...
will swedish women give up on feminism when they are freezing at night? They could will have to find a strong man to keep them warm during the coming cold winter.
Or they might just get more pets to try to stay warm... but that is just more mouths to feed.

[Anonymous No.51533435]

>>51532995
They're all westernized if you know what I mean. Absolute sluts that I don't want anything to do with because it makes me feel like a degenerate going after them. It's not just the girls, the guys are drug addicts just like the girls. It's fucked up, people take drugs that fuck up the mind at a really young age here in the cities.
t. Afghan who's more Swedish than afghan but not Swedish just afghan. If you know you know

[Anonymous No.51535553]

>>51532838
As I understand it, Finland became Germany's sock puppet because of the soviet conflict. So as a necessity of circumstances.
Germany is EU globohomo power capital and this is why politicians all over europe bend the knee to EU and by extension, to Germany.