Im going to go ahead and say it: This is 2014 Rerun

File: 1.27 MB, 1682x1580, Screen Shot 2022-09-18 at 11.18.37 PM.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]

Im going to go ahead and say it: This is 2014 Rerun Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:21:57 2022 No.51507033 [Reply] [Original]

>Two Phase Top (yes this one didnt rally as much at all on the second top)
>Four motions lower with the last being a small equal sided hop back to the baseline support

2014 went on the bounce in one more time over the course of about 3 months and then begin its next rally.

My guess is, barring a huge shock from the fed, a bounce here then range bound for a bit shorter than the 2014 3 months when correcting for the added speed we've seen thus far. Call it 2.5 months.

This places us at the tail end of rate hikes and the beginning of 2023. Aligns fairly well.

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:23:52 2022 No.51507051 >>51507033 No we're just going to $8k like most of the board predicted at the $70k double top

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:24:48 2022 No.51507058 File: 329 KB, 2658x964, Screen Shot 2022-09-18 at 10.40.20 PM.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] BTC also at major support -- important to hold

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:24:52 2022 No.51507059 Big elephants trunk forming on the 30 min about to cross MA30 SELL SELL SELL Or not I don't give a fuck

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:25:00 2022 No.51507060 >>51507051 When do we get there. I’d like to slurp.

Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:25:08 2022 No.51507062

Yes, but the overall economy is not in the same state.

People are less likely to place their money into crypto, now that the price of everything is going up.
And people with a lot of money to invest are less likely to do so as well.

Basically the last time the play was to get retail suckers to toss their money in, which they did and they lost it, now retail is less likely to do it again considering the overall economic crunch.

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:25:39 2022 No.51507072 >>51507033 you just jinxed it you stupid fucking nigger. see you at 12k.

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:25:49 2022 No.51507076 File: 374 KB, 2662x1056, Screen Shot 2022-09-18 at 10.42.25 PM.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] As is ETH at this point

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:26:21 2022 No.51507085 In 2014 the world economy wasn't imploding.

Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:26:38 2022 No.51507090
File: 402 KB, 1286x1000, 1656095253752.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]

>>51507051
>most of the board

at 69k most of the board was punjabi posting about rancid, elon musk themed BSC scams, and the most ardent maxis were predicting 100k. The first peak had people predicting a drop, but maybe 1% of posts by volume were privvy to a double top

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:26:40 2022 No.51507091 >>51507076 dude just stop it. you literally just fucked us all.

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:26:49 2022 No.51507094 >>51507033 For any newfags that may be interested its important to note that the covid crash was an anomaly which caused the less profitable bull run. If covid didnt happen we would have easily broken 100k this cycle

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:26:50 2022 No.51507095 >>51507072 maybe im shorting ;)

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:27:02 2022 No.51507099 File: 47 KB, 507x338, wfswfweew34532.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>51507033 >Whatever price they want with whatever news event they need to move it in that direction. >TA

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:27:26 2022 No.51507103 >>51507060 We'll be mostly bottomed out by Jan/Feb. I'm restarting DCA once we dip under $10k

Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:27:56 2022 No.51507107

>>51507090
>>most of the board
YOU are most of the board. when most of the board is saying "most of the board" then you need to take a look in the fucking mirror you stupid fucking nigger. i hate you all. you all literally just fucked us. i fucking hate you god damn niggers.

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:27:59 2022 No.51507109 >>51507085 things will probably be a lot smoother in 3 months. fed is going to have to ease up soon. especially with elections coming up

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:28:58 2022 No.51507126 >>51507109 dude shut the FUCK up. just stop talking. every word out of your mouth is what i was thinking before reading this thread and now that i see someone else saying it i know im wrong. fuck you, stupid nigger get fucked

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:29:12 2022 No.51507131 >>51507107 you sound stupid and poor

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:29:52 2022 No.51507141 >>51507107 >>51507126 kys mongoloid

Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:30:24 2022 No.51507150

>>51507103
>We'll be mostly bottomed out by Jan/Feb. I'm restarting DCA once we dip under $10k
>you sound stupid and poor
if you are agreeing on the direction of the market with someone you just called stupid and poor then what does that make you, fucking dumb nigger

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:31:17 2022 No.51507162 >>51507150 someone has a favorite word. very edgy

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:31:28 2022 No.51507165 you are all black fucking niggers and i want you all to know how black and niggerish you are. suck a fucking tranny fuck you dumb niggers.

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:31:58 2022 No.51507170 >>51507109 The fact you and other anons souls are not crushed means we need to go down more

Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:32:33 2022 No.51507179

Imagine every single person who has purchased crypto over the course of BTC lifetime. Many are hodlers, they have lived through the cycles over and over. None of them have considered holding through a recessionary period.

This will not be a bear market like previous, and so far our retracement has been the smallest of any bear market, if this was to be the bottom. Absolutely not. So we can happily accept that a -85% from ATH is not only acceptable, but almost guaranteed. I believe this is $9k usd?

Now we must consider just how bad this will be. Remember the holders who have never considered selling in the past, now this opportunity comes knocking harder than ever. Why continue to hold during a recession, monetary tightening, inflation, etc. The signs were available at the top of this cycle. These long term holders unloaded more than any other bear market over this past year.

The only people who remain are stupid retail investors.

Oh shit, I have to pay my rent next week. $9k ->$8k

Fuck, i cant afford my electricity bill. $8k ->$6k

holy shit these rates. i cant afford my mortgage. what am i gonna give up first, my house or my btc? $6k ->$3k and lower

Do you get it? this is going to be the longest bear market we have seen in ages. we will not be returning to a bullish scene until 2025 minimum, and even that's punching. dont even get me started on the rate hikes part. you are a baby crying for mummas teat if you're constantly thinking rates will be cut in 2023. welcome to the real world of crypto

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:32:40 2022 No.51507182 >>51507103 stay poor

Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:33:02 2022 No.51507188
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>>51507107
>you are most of the board
seethe shcizo retard, I've scrape /biz/ and r*ddit for sentiment analysis since 2018 and while 1% was an exaggeration it was an overwhelmingly euphoric time in post volume and sentiment. There is no "jinxing", go perform a ritual sacrifice and draw more lines on a 30 minute chart.

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:33:09 2022 No.51507189 >>51507150 It means you and I both agree on price direction while you still sound stupid and poor

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:33:21 2022 No.51507193 >>51507109 >muh fed pivot Your very existence is proof that the bottom is nowhere near in.

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:33:22 2022 No.51507194 >bro it has to follow the same cycle as in 2014 when the market cap was $800 and a goat during wildly different economic conditions even though the charts don't line up just.......because it does ok

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:35:09 2022 No.51507211 >>51507170 nah mine was crushed in 2017. dw about that >>51507179 most impact is institutional now

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:35:34 2022 No.51507219 >>51507109 Europe is only gonna get worse

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:36:03 2022 No.51507224 >>51507211 do you hear any institutions buying up btc as if it was the bottom?

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:36:11 2022 No.51507227 >>51507219 has it ever gotten better?

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:36:53 2022 No.51507238 >>51507033 Checked and I am thinking the same thing in regards to BTC. However, ETH appears to be fucked.

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:37:09 2022 No.51507242 >>51507107 Very good. Post more of these.

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:37:11 2022 No.51507243 >>51507224 i havent checked the high networth and institutional buyer public announcement channel lately

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:37:15 2022 No.51507246 >>51507188 and whats the sentiment telling you now retard? or are you more of a hindsight sentiment reader like the rest of the fucking morons here

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:37:30 2022 No.51507251 File: 220 KB, 700x490, 1663290011715.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>51507058 thanks for the sell signal

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:38:28 2022 No.51507261 File: 287 KB, 1710x1454, 20220823_112536.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>51507194 This. OP take one of the most deluded copetakes I've ever read on biz. Bewildering how passionately people reject objective reality in a game like this.

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:39:15 2022 No.51507263 File: 279 KB, 940x518, cmebears.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] Reminder.

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:39:35 2022 No.51507270 >>51507051 this board never predicts anything right en masse so I don't believe you

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:39:57 2022 No.51507274 >>51507243 because its fucking empty you clown.

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:39:59 2022 No.51507275 >>51507141 He’s not wrong you mutt

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:40:07 2022 No.51507277 >>51507033 >tail end of rate hikes It's going to be raised 100bps. then 75.. If this major support breaks.. look out below.

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:40:39 2022 No.51507284 >>51507033 Nice New narrative just dropped

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:41:27 2022 No.51507294 File: 5 KB, 178x250, 1655763673787.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>51507275

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:42:36 2022 No.51507304 >>51507251 you def should consider selling if it breaks and closes. >>51507284 :)

Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:42:52 2022 No.51507310

>>51507211
Same as mine and everytime I look at the link chart. every time I think i cant bottom out emotionally in this game I allways do. You poking around here for market sentiment means you’re trying tk time the bottom becaus you are bullish. We’re are no where close to bottom because of this

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:45:50 2022 No.51507350 >>51507310 wow i wield a lot of power

Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:48:37 2022 No.51507387

>>51507246
Twitter:
- risk agg: negative
- NFT agg: positive
- microcap: neutral, with decreased volume
- ETH: positive
- BTC: neutral

Reddit:
- risk agg: negative
- NFT agg: neutral
- microcap: negative, with decreased volume
- ETH: positive
- BTC: positive

biz:
- risk agg: negative
- NFT agg: negative, with decreased volume
- microcap: negative, with decreased volume
- ETH: negative
- BTC: neutral

don't want to copy / type out the rest, the aggregate for risk-on seems like the best macro indicator anyway. Take non-aggregate positive sentiment on reddit with a grain of salt because they segregate into asset-specific communities

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:51:58 2022 No.51507427 >>51507090 this, i got laughed at so many times for suggesting we'd fall below $20k before seeing $100k. I have been anticipating sub $12k and will be buying bigly below $10k.

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:53:10 2022 No.51507436 File: 308 KB, 3208x910, bart.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] took some of my shorts off the table -- about half. Semi-inverse-bart up is obvious. Barring a nas100 collapse.

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:53:48 2022 No.51507439 File: 2.00 MB, 460x454, 1663453378411620.webm [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>51507033 well thats one way of looking at it lol

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:55:23 2022 No.51507455 >>51507436 wont happen in 25 mins though -- likely by market open EST tomorrow if nas doesn't shit itself

Anonymous Mon Sep 19 03:55:46 2022 No.51507459

>>51507387
so your overall take is that the sentiment across all platforms is negative, except for twitter nft fags that are bullish because they literally have their nft's as their profile pics. nft sentiment doesnt even matter because all the current ones are probably going to zero anyways. big bear volume on biz showing up right now to tell everyone how fucked we are, lots of articles on seeking alpha about how the bear market is just beginning and the fed is going to hike 100 bps on wednesday and fuck us. people long on ETH from the merge that were expecting higher? sure, and BTC.D looks like it could pump which wouldnt surprise me....everything just feels really mixed but overall i think sentiment is largely negative which is why i fucking hate seeing people that agree with me because that means i need to think twice

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 04:01:04 2022 No.51507515 >>51507459 in most binary market decisions youll find a lot of people that agree with you.

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 04:02:51 2022 No.51507532 >>51507224 >do you hear any institutions buying up btc as if it was the bottom? no but you didn't hear them buying it at 3k neither

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 04:05:43 2022 No.51507554 >>51507532 either* but yes

Anonymous Mon Sep 19 04:07:57 2022 No.51507586

>>51507459
it's not really "my" take, it's several million posts that have been run through NLP to make something close to a moving average. Granted, a lot of those comments are presumably made by the same people or at least directly influenced by others, and numerous other factors are at play to influence the independence of sample data.

I'll also note that biz is so small in relation to other sources that it's usually just an interesting gauge of bot volume. I wouldn't place too much importance on who agrees with you here, especially if you're reducing "agreement" to buy vs sell as >>51507515 said.

Anonymous Mon Sep 19 04:12:21 2022 No.51507617

>>51507586
got it. so basically general consensus is "i have no fucking idea whats going on" in other words probably double bottom, crab until fomc on wednesday and then pump it or crab some more and kill everyone in a time correction

i dont agree with your take on that you will always find a lot of people that agree with you after a big move up or down happens, sure there will be a lot of people that have mixed thoughts as to whether we go up or down, but usually at the END of the next consolidation the majority of market participants are leaning one way or another and it becomes easier to see what direction is coming next. right now its really mixed because we havent yet digested the latest move fully.

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 04:14:35 2022 No.51507639 >>51507617 Mixed? go tell anyone you know to buy bitcoin. See what they say.

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 04:14:54 2022 No.51507643 >>51507058 >inb4 descending triangle breaks

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 04:20:12 2022 No.51507704 File: 290 KB, 2216x940, ignoretri.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>51507643 you should probably ignore the triangle. This is the third one that's formed. The last two broke into continued crabbing.

Anonymous Mon Sep 19 04:20:55 2022 No.51507708
File: 68 KB, 1409x801, btc.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]

>>51507639
>Mixed? go tell anyone you know to buy bitcoin. See what they say.
i think you would be surprised. pic related is what im trying to explain. in the previous cycle for example, after a big move happens the sentiment is generally mixed until a period of consolidation happens which pushed the majority of the market to one side or another. after the initial crash from 20k sentiment was mixed and then as consolidation happened the majority of people swore up and down that 6k was definitely the bottom and then we broke lower. after that dump to 3k, there were some people calling for bottom and others saying lower but generally mixed emotions. then some consolidation occurred and sentiment definitely was leaning way bearish and it became obvious that we would pump

now i would say we are leaning bearish but need more consolidation to push more people onto that side. once i see that nobody agrees with me anymore then i know i am right. right now i dont see that yet (unless biz has become the epitome of smart money which i highly doubt)

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 04:22:29 2022 No.51507723 File: 325 KB, 3052x968, bartt.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>51507704 >>51507643 this bart on the other hand...

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 04:24:34 2022 No.51507747 File: 10 KB, 251x242, 1647238208761.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>51507072 >>51507091 >>51507126 holy fucking based

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 04:28:05 2022 No.51507795 File: 243 KB, 830x840, photo_2022-09-17_19-34-51.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>51507708 based

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 04:33:33 2022 No.51507865 >>51507304 One of the things I love best about bear market /biz/ is that almost all of my posts get at least one reply I have to say, which is rarely ever said, this is the best that /biz/ has ever been

Anonymous Mon Sep 19 04:33:42 2022 No.51507866

>>51507033
good God this is depressing for me. In 2014 I went on a trip to Las Vegas with my friends for a concert. At one point in old vegas there was a marquee on a casino that was advertising Bitcoin. They had a bitcoin ATM or something, and it just said BUY BITCOIN in gigantic flashing lights.

And I didn't buy, it wasn't until years later that I saw the message when looking through old photos.

It was less than $1000 in 2014. The time of year I was in Vegas...it was like $400 per bitcoin. If I had just bought then and there when I got back from my trip...I could be living the high life even now

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 04:39:01 2022 No.51507939 >>51507219 True. America will be the next one.

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 04:44:18 2022 No.51507991 >>51507179 I want you to be correct, but I think you're just posting bearish euphoria hope porn. I don't think 9k is impossible, but 3k? lol

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 04:45:03 2022 No.51508001 >>51507179 bro shut up

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 04:46:00 2022 No.51508006 >>51507126 mabe you are the problem and not the others

>>	Anonymous Mon Sep 19 05:39:01 2022 No.51508542 >>51507085 2014-2015 was shemitah year

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/biz/ - Business & Finance