/biz/ - Business & Finance

[Anonymous No.51163100]

Oh No Zestimate Stacy! More bad news about your home price...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11150999/Is-America-verge-new-housing-collapse-Mountain-West-Sun-Belt-overvalued-72.html

>Is America on the verge of a house price collapse? Prices could crash by up to 20% and homes are overvalued by as much as 72%, expert warns

>But a total of 180 other areas across the US have property deemed overvalued, many of them highly-desirable. They include LA, Orlando, Seattle and Indianapolis, where property is all estimated to be 30 percent overvalued. Homes in Houston are around 34.5 per cent overvalued, while properties in Montana are 25 per cent overvalued.

>Boise, where the current average house is worth $526,050 according to Zillow, is almost 72 percent overvalued, although a recession is only expected to wipe 20 percent off the prices of homes at most.
>Charlotte in North Carolina is the second most overvalued, at 66 percent, with Austin third place at 61 percent.
>Charlotte, North Carolina, is 66 percent overvalued, with the average home at $406,137 at the moment - and Austin, Texas is 61 percent overvalued, at an average of $661,337.
>Flagstaff, Arizona ($668,845), is overvalued by 61 percent, while Nashville, Tennessee ($460,447) is 54 percent overvalued and Miami ($552,082) is 34 percent.

[Anonymous No.51163153]

>>51163100
You seem to have made a bit of a mistake in your post. Luckily, the users of 4channel are always willing to help you clear this problem right up!

You appear to have linked to a mainstream news article. Whoops! Mainstream news sites are jewish-owned and hence unreliable and full of disinfo. To prevent this kind of mistake in the future, always make sure you link to alternative non-jewish news sources.

[Anonymous No.51163181]

>>51163153
>>>/pol/

[Anonymous No.51163196]

>>51163181
Well done! That is an acceptable news source. I'm glad that you are here to show OP how it's done!

[Anonymous No.51163289]

>>51163153
>Dailymail
>Mainstream news site
>Jewish owned

[Anonymous No.51163387]

>>51163100
lol rents aren't going down, so home prices aren't really going down either, especially in the starter home/value segment.
Yes if you bought an 800K in Flagstaff you might be under water for a year or 2.
Demand is fundamentally strong

[Anonymous No.51163498]

>>51163100
You are STILL priced out. Rent is due by Wednesday, little man!

[Anonymous No.51163540]

>>51163289
Correct.

[Anonymous No.51163545]

>>51163100
>>51163387
But there are a ton of homes on the market. It sounds like there is a bunch of dry power on the side lines waiting for good deals. But if the recession really start kill off jobs and people need to get out of house fast nothing might stop it a 30% collapse.

On the other hand we might only see a hand full of tech companies that only affect a few markets by 30% while the everywhere else see a 10% correction.

Honestly I would like to jump on a house in the next 6 months before the market takes off again from inflation or higher interest rates.

[Anonymous No.51163696]

>>51163540
I need you to Fucking pull up from making this Shit up.

[Anonymous No.51163713]

>>51163696
you have a big penis

[Anonymous No.51164033]

>>51163100
please use the second version that i made that has the zillow logo (and is better symetrically balanced)

[Anonymous No.51164060]

>>51163100
>Indianapolis
>desirable
Lmao

[Anonymous No.51164288]

>>51163545
>But there are a ton of homes on the market.
Not really, we're still below pre covid supply levels; average number of days on the market is also still below pre covid levels
>It sounds like there is a bunch of dry power on the side lines waiting for good deals.
So you're saying demand is fundamentally strong. Good is relative, and most people think in monthly payment terms not dollar terms when buying. This means prices will be supported by peoples' dry powder.
>But if the recession really start kill off jobs and people need to get out of house fast nothing might stop it a 30% collapse.
lol, employment is still high; we aren't seeing any signs of this. People with homes typically have marketable skills and don't show this sort of sell pressure. We don't have the NINJA loans or other subprime issues of 2008.
>On the other hand we might only see a hand full of tech companies that only affect a few markets by 30% while the everywhere else see a 10% correction.
are you having a stroke? I don't even know what you're saying here but this is wishful thinking pricewise. Much more likely a reversion to the 2014-2019 type market with persistent inflation.
>Honestly I would like to jump on a house in the next 6 months before the market takes off again from inflation or higher interest rates.
here, more useful for you than the shit in these threads
https://www.redfin.com/us-housing-market

[Anonymous No.51164344]

>>51163153
This is the sort of shit niggers do on Reddit. Gatekeeping faggot tourist you just call him a nigger and move on.

[Anonymous No.51164664]

>>51164288
Consider how massive the US real estate market is and how slow it moves. Also consider that current prices are very much a product of international and institutional demand. China is going through a real estate crisis of their own which will likely have a contagion effect on global markets, Europe is in the middle of a nasty currency devaluation and energy crisis.
The average American Joe isn't supporting the US real estate market and even if they were most of them/us are priced out at current valuations + interest rates. Yeah, there's demand for housing but the demand is for affordable housing not $600k 1200 sqft 3 bed 1 baths @ 5%. There will always be demand for housing so long as there are people alive. It's not about demand it's about liquidity and it's drying the fuck up

[Anonymous No.51165128]

>>51164664
Chinese residential real estate has no connection to American residential real estate in any material way. Not even sure if I buy your take because if I'm a chinese millionaire with an american property, and china starts going to shit, am I going to sell the asset that is not controlled by the CCP, producing income in a strong USD vs yuan, and generally a fantastic hedge against any domestic china issues? No why would I even sell that. There might be a small number of very overleveraged selling limited to the high luxury segment of Seattle, san fransisco, and LA but no real contagion risk.

Interest rates are huge- No denying that, but refi is an option down the line. Additionally, if inflation continues then locking in a payment makes sense. Agree this is overall a headwind for sure

Institutional buying pressure is not going away. That's wishful thinking. This demand is a function of yield = Annual Rent - Expenses / Price. Rents are not collapsing, so yields will stay high and institutions will deploy capital if they can hit the yield number. They're not going to wait to bid to maybe have the chance of 2 more bps in 3 months.

[Anonymous No.51165210]

>>51163498
rent + tip

[Anonymous No.51165216]

>>51165128
delusion
you sound exactly like canadians 6 months ago
houses dropped 20% since then

[Anonymous No.51165405]

>>51165128
If you're a Chinese millionaire and the real estate market implodes you probably aren't going to be a millionaire anymore and you might have to start selling things that have some actual value in order to keep up with your inflated millionaire lifestyle.
For everything that supposedly won't happen or hasn't happened. I would just say 'yet'.
A month ago (maybe longer?) every real estate agent on social media was telling us how the housing market would never crash etc etc and now I'm seeing them all cope by saying how 'well now sellers are entertaining offers w/ contingencies, etc'. As time goes on it will get worse because at the end of the day the thing that has the biggest effect is the price of money which is continuing to climb.
The more expensive money becomes to borrow the more air will be let out of the balloon.
I think the Fed is trying to do things in a slow and deliberate way as to not create too much turbulence and break something but they're probably going to keep going until something breaks (intentionally or not) and I don't think the housing market is going to be as insulated as some think if and when that happens.
It wasn't that long ago when bitcoin was also mathematically impossible to go below X and how everything was priced in or <insert whatever other FA copium>.
The fact that so many people don't even seem to be feeling the pain (yet) tells me that it's going to get a lot worse for possibly a lot longer.
Either way I'm going to roll with it so this is all just mental masturbation.

[Jealous No.51165410]

it dryer fu?

[Anonymous No.51165492]

>>51165216
When my neighbor’s zestimate goes down 20% it’s a recession. When my zestimate goes down 0.8% it’s a depression.

[Anonymous No.51165569]

>>51165492
what do you call this then?
the greatest depression?

[Anonymous No.51165621]

>>51165216
-5% in the last 12 months; still above pre covid prices.

15 seconds of googling:
https://wowa.ca/reports/canada-housing-market

All this to not even mention the fact that American residential real estate is much stronger than Canada's.
Canada has 1 city with more than 2M people; 4 more cities above 1 million.
US has 4 cities above 2M; 6 more above 1M
Alternatively Canada has 6 cities with more than 800K people; US has 17.

[Anonymous No.51165661]

>>51165216
nobody is as stupid and deluded as Canadians!

[Anonymous No.51165671]

>>51165621
toronto reached pre covid prices
https://storeys.com/toronto-house-prices-reaching-pre-pandemic-levels/
its unironically over
for us at least
you guys have 30 yr mortgages, everyone here is on a arm of sorts (5 year terms max)

[Anonymous No.51165682]

>>51163100
Fuck you Redfin Rebecca stop trying to kill the Zestimate party

[Anonymous No.51165731]

>housing goes up 100%
>comes down 20%
263k->526k->420k

[Anonymous No.51165804]

>>51164033
>not including a green dildo in the background.