/biz/ - Business & Finance

[Anonymous No.51057911]

Pivot is near, wagmi

[Anonymous No.51057989]

>>51057911
You think so?
I thought the plan was to spend trillions of dollars at higher interest rates and just cope with the interest

[Anonymous No.51058061]

>>51057911
https://twitter.com/LoganMohtashami/status/1561758624849879040

[Anonymous No.51058132]

>>51057911
CRASH FFS

[Anonymous No.51058381]

>>51058132
If everyone expects a crash, then it's not going to happen, dipshit. The moment a dip in housing prices & interest rates occurs, people will buy it up like mad (literally "buying the dip").

The only way a true crash happens is it an economic depression happens, everyone is losing their jobs, and interest rates skyrocket. But when that happens, then no one can buy a house, including you, because access to loans & credit dries up. That's why house prices "crash", because people literally cannot get the cash to put an offer. Only big banks. So you'll get to see your precious housing "crash", but you'll be stuck on the sidelines with your dick in hand, crying like a bitch, while wall street kikes scoop up more of middle class America every passing year.

TLDR: Buy a house when you are ready, not when the market is. You will never time it correctly.

[Anonymous No.51058446]

>>51058381
Inventory is shooting up. It's literally crashing right now and nobody is buying. This is why economists say deflation is bad. When prices start falling, suddenly nobody wants to buy shit anymore. This basic concept is woven deeply through human psychology.

[Anonymous No.51058481]

>>51058381
Interest rates are already to high for most people. Unless home prices correct, buyers will only be expats from higher income states or local millionaires.

[Anonymous No.51058492]

>>51058381
This is exactly what everyone said about the 08 crash and what every retarded nigger ever has said about any asset bubble popping.
>Bro if price goes down everyone will buy and price will go back up!
If you can't understand why this is retarded you are too stupid to give advice on anything more complex than wiping your ass.

[Anonymous No.51058526]

>>51057911
The pivot would make them look so pathetic, but at the end of the day the federal reserve is bagholding an ungodly amount of mortgage backed securities. Their balance sheets would be obliterated by a falling housing market. I get hard just thinking about it.

[Anonymous No.51058547]

>>51057911
i completely understand what this means because i'm way too smart

[Anonymous No.51058665]

>>51058446
Inventory for new (read: BRAND NEW) homes are going up, because they were already overpriced to Timbuktu to begin with. see >>51058061 . Pre-existing homes is still at a 50 year historic low.

>>51058481
6% is historic average. You haven't seen shit yet. Come back to me when 30Y mortgages hit double digit rates.

>>51058492
Reading comprehension is hard for you apparently. The price will continue to stay elevated until as long as normies and dipshits here keep holding out for a crash. They are sitting on the sidelines with their 10%/20% downpayment in cash, thinking they can "perfectly time the market bottom". But if everyone thought like that, then the moment any noticeable shortfall in prices happens (10-20%), people will jump right back in and prices will rise again.

As I said, a "true" crash only happens when the economy goes to shit, rates skyrocket, and your sidelines cash becomes worthless, because even with a 20% downpayment, no bank will loan you money because liquidity dries up. THAT is the reason 2008-2010 happened. Why do you think so many people "regret" not buying in 2010? Because they COULD NOT, physically. The only people who win in those scenarios are 100% cash buyers (aka billionaires) or big banks with free money from the Fed. Wage cucks like you will never get a chance to "buy the bottom".

[Anonymous No.51058717]

>>51057911
>>51058526

Seems like you're finally catching on to what the market started pricing for a month ago. better late than never

[Anonymous No.51058736]

After the squeeze i won't care about prices

[Anonymous No.51058743]

Fed pivots they lose the bond market. Simple as. Will literally not happen. You’d have to believe the fed would be willing to bail out the top 1% at the expense of literally bankrupting the federal government.

[Anonymous No.51058912]

>>51058743
>pivots they lose the bond market. Simple as. Will literally not happen. You’d have to believe the fed
umm no... Rates go down bonds go up- unless I'm totally misreading you here

[Anonymous No.51059000]

>>51058743
Wouldn't a fed pivot - and the resultant longer and higher inflation - actually be great for the federal government?

Government can borrow at lower interest rates, inflation eats away at national debt, inflation increases tax receipts. Seems like it would be entirely in the government's interest, no? I understand that this will fuck over the average person - but that's an entirely seperate argument. The gov should want to run as much inflation as they can get away with electorally, surely?

If I was Biden, I'd go ahead and promise student debt cancellation post-midterms, ride the desperate Millenial electoral wave, and then cancel student debt, unleashing a tidal wave of cleansing inflation from the surge of high-velocity money.

[Anonymous No.51059012]

>>51058665
>Pre-existing homes is still at a 50 year historic low.
Nah, the charts all lag by a shitload and the industry tries to hide negative trends. I can see with my own eyes that inventory is up. My search criteria has stayed the same for around a year now, looking for a place with a little land in Florida for under 500k. Back in January it returned few results, and anything which wasn't condemnable sold in days, sometimes for over the listing price. Now there are hundreds of results and price drops are frequent. These are all mostly 10-30 year old homes. Funny thing is, I was praying for this kind of inventory selection early this year, but now that I have it, I don't want a house anymore! I realized the psychological effect of scarcity had tricked me as well.
Rentals have shit too btw. Last year had stiff competition. I live with family so I don't care, but last year things were pretty tough for friends of mine. Anything half decent would have a dozen applicants and be off market in days. I wondered if all the purchase demand shifted even further to rentals, but that's not the case. I found 6 really nice 3br 2ba 1700sqft+ detached homes in a single development when looking yesterday. They all had a time on market of over 30 days and prices between 1800 and 2400. A few months ago, that neighborhood had no availability at all. The demand isn't shifting to anything. It's just evaporating. It was mania, nothing more.

[Anonymous No.51059049]

>>51058665
>Doubles down and seethes
You just repeated yourself. Enjoy the ride retard.

[Anonymous No.51059233]

>>51058381
>If I had to put odds: soft landing 10%. Harder landing, mild recession, 20%, 30%. Harder recession, 20%, 30%. And maybe something worse at 20% to 30%. It is a bad mistake to say 'here is my single point forecast.'

t. this guy on a client call last week with JPMs wealthiest clients. You are guilty of that last thing he said

[Anonymous No.51059690]

>>51058912
>>51058912

What matters is the YIELD the government has to pay on the bonds. Fed pivots = 2 year bond collapses, 10 year bond follows, yields skyrocket because inflation expectations have become unanchored. Federal government literally cannot afford to pay 4% yield on 10 year treasures at current debt levels.

BOND YIELDS are a function of:

GROWTH EXPECTATIONS
INFLATION EXPECTATIONS

If the fed gives up on the fight against inflation ITS OVER. Why do you think people still hold dogshit treasuries yielding 3% when inflation is at 8%? Because they TRUST the fed will bring inflation down. Once that TRUST is gone, it’s over. Bonds need to yield 8% JUST TO KEEP UP WITH INFLATION.

>>51059000

No, that experiment was already tried. Look at the term premia caused by Arther Burns who refused to tighten during inflation in the 70s. He literally didn’t tighten because the president bullied him to keep rates low. As a result we got the 70s shitshow. At least Biden isn’t making that mistake. The current debt to GDP ratio CANNOT withstand rates that high.

It’s simple math. Calculate how much debt the US has, the amount in treasuries, the yield they must pay, and then factor in the federal governments budget.

[Anonymous No.51059706]

>>51057911
agree, pivot is around october-november

[Anonymous No.51059737]

>>51057911
Inflation has peaked but in terms of a pivot of actually reducing rates that will take a while. I do expect the increases to be stable from now on though.

[Anonymous No.51059757]

>>51058912

>Rates go down bonds go up

Incorrect

[Anonymous No.51059764]

This sucks about the US, that we have plenty of resources to go it alone now that the global supply chains are fucked in the ass. Which means that the whole fucking world is going to come here. And they'll get gibs in exchange for voting for fag enablers. Fuck the (((USA))).

[Anonymous No.51059793]

>>51059233
thx for narrowing it down schlomo, now we know EVERYTHING is possible.

[Anonymous No.51059905]

>>51059690
>>51059757
Ohh you're actually retarded- my mistake. You do realize that the govt doesn't actually pay any coupons on the bonds- they offer them for sale below par with them paying in full on expiry- thus only the initial sale price of treasuries matter. Follow up question- who are the primary buyers of treasuries? what does the treasury market look like?
Not to mention you need to take econ 101 and learn what you have backwards w/r to fed rates (discount rate) and asset prices

>>51059000
>lower interest rates, inflation eats away at national debt, inflation increases tax receipts. Seems like it would be entirely in the government's interest, no?
Yes that's exactly how it works and that's how its going to play out because its politically inflation is preferable to literally everything collapsing; the only headwind being pensioners would be fucked over by high inflation- on the other hand 401K holders would prefer inflation as it implies higher cash out value.

[Anonymous No.51059957]

>>51059905

You’re a clown and both the risk and bond market are telling you you’re wrong. I guess you can ignore reality and live in fantasy land, don’t really care. Throw your 9k or whatever you manage on the “pivot trade” but the 10 year is above 3% when the PMI printed 45 today. Obviously the fed is going to pivot when they see 5 year inflation forwards skyrocketing. Obviously. I suppose they’d be more likely to share your perspective if they were also down 20% on their all in SOXL position like you

[Anonymous No.51059987]

>>51058381
>If everyone expects a crash, then it's not going to happen, dipshit
That's not how bear markets work, sweaty :)

[Anonymous No.51060010]

>>51059793
When the guy who controls the most powerful bank in the world has no fucking idea what is going to happen, neckbeards on /biz/ don't either

[Anonymous No.51060090]

>>51059957
>both the risk and bond market are telling you you’re wrong
where are you seeing this? obviously not here:
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
or
https://www.atlantafed.org/cenfis/market-probability-tracker
or
https://www.investing.com/central-banks/fed-rate-monitor

angrily talking all this shit with nothing to back it up. pic related

[Anonymous No.51060144]

>>51057911
They need to crash the housing market to reduce inflation. The FED will pivot after something breaks, not before imo

[Anonymous No.51060226]

>>51060090

Dude are you dumb? Go look at junk bond yields, 5 year inflation forwards, 5 year Michigan inflation expectations, the fucking 10 year yield. The market is pretty obviously pricing in a regime with persistent inflation. What are you even linking? Who the fuck cares about the fed funds rate from here? They’re going to get it to 4% and leave it there, that shut has been priced in for a millennia. The question is regarding PIVOT or not, and with core PCE accelerating + energy bottoming, you’d have to be a literal gorilla to still believe an iota of the “pivot” narrative. Everything is moving in the WRONG direction for the fed. If anything expect further TIGHTENING, and we are seeing the 2 year yield surge for evidence of that.

[Anonymous No.51060271]

>>51059690
>As a result we got the 70s shitshow.
Wasn't the big issue stagflation - i.e. they had terrible unemployment and inflation at the same time? US economy has great employment right now, plus onshoring as deglobalisation trends accelerate - is it really the same?

>The current debt to GDP ratio CANNOT withstand rates that high.
So surely that's an argument in favour of a pivot? Fed keeps interests rates as is, or even drops them, and the gov can easily service the national debt, plus accelerating tax returns, etc.

>It’s simple math. Calculate how much debt the US has, the amount in treasuries, the yield they must pay, and then factor in the federal governments budget
I'm missing something here. Doesn't a lower interest rate help that, and a higher one hinder it?

I believe France successfully ran inflation in the way I described post-WW2.

>Yes that's exactly how it works and that's how its going to play out because its politically inflation is preferable to literally everything collapsing
When do you think the pivot will happen then? I'm wondering about some sort of abomination happening, like more QE + higher interest rates, as some sort of absurd optics compromise.

[Anonymous No.51060280]

>>51060271
Should have tagged: >>51059905 for last greentext

[Anonymous No.51060307]

>>51058665
>Decreasing demand at current prices will prop up current prices because some people will be willing to buy at lower prices
How can a person assess a set of facts more or less accurately and yet still brazenly declare the exact opposite conclusion to what they imply as fact? This may be the dumbest post I've seen on /biz/ all day.

[Anonymous No.51060364]

Probably a stupid question.
I'm sitting on ~120k hoping to buy eventually.
Have good credit, >800.
If a full blown recession hits, and prices do come down, will credit still be unavailable to me, such that i won't be able to buy?

[Anonymous No.51060376]

>>51058381
>>51058665
Two quality answers. However, we all know something worse is coming.

[Anonymous No.51060390]

>>51060090
>shows the actual markets expectations- trillions of managed dollars lined up through derivatives by thousands of fund managers all across the world who literally do this as their full time job.
>Shows fed funds peaking Q2 '23, general easing after

>>51060226
>What are you even linking? Who the fuck cares about the fed funds rate from here?
Why would we talk about the fed funds rate when talking about a fed pivot? What has that got to do with anything? I'm sure you have it more figured out than the aggregate market forward expectations (which has consistently been the #1 indicator of fed action historically). But no you def have it right and it's the market that's wrong. totally. Keep following your junk bond yields and trusting the dot plot. Why do you think we mooned after the august meeting when we RAISED RATES- its because the forward expectations (in the pic) changed.

We will tighten through Q1 23. We will likely hold steady or ease after that. political realities in Europe and japan will likely require the US to ease to prop up our allies and counter Russia/China

[Anonymous No.51060395]

>>51060271
>>51060271

>Wasn't the big issue stagflation - i.e. they had terrible unemployment and inflation at the same time? US economy has great employment right now,

The 70s saw peak baby boomer productivity in the labor market, it was a demographic and economic tailwind. Now we don’t have ENOUGH labor, this is a big inflationary pressure.

High employment is inflationary, see the concept of price wage spiral. Less labor competition = higher wages

>deglobalization

Deflationary, the fact that we are going to see more onshoring is again, more inflationary pressure

> So surely that's an argument in favour of a pivot? Fed keeps interests rates as is, or even drops them, and the gov can easily service the national debt, plus accelerating tax returns, etc.

No because the yield bond holders expect are based on future inflation and growth expectations. If inflation expectations rise, the yields rise. The entire conundrum is that if you pivot, you essentially “give up” fighting inflation. This means bond holders will expect to be compensated with a yield that matches the rate of inflation. 7%? Look at what happened to equity markets when the yield reached 3.5%.

The issue is that you guys can’t comprehend that the price of bonds are based on EXPECTATIONS. You think the fed funds are the only input into bond pricing, which is wrong.

Pivot = unanchored inflation = people sell bonds which are yielding -5% after inflation, yields skyrocket.

> When do you think the pivot will happen then? I'm wondering about some sort of abomination happening, like more QE + higher interest rates, as some sort of absurd optics compromise.

There is no pivot until something breaks like 2008. It’s not a matter of choice.

[Anonymous No.51060416]

>>51058381
Hoomer copium kek

[Anonymous No.51060426]

>>51058381
the kikes are losing hard right now retard.

[Anonymous No.51060441]

>>51060390

You seriously sound borderline schizo, or you’re using terms you seriously don’t understand. The market already removed some of their cut expectations for next year, you do know that happens, right? Like what are you even arguing lmao? Pivot? No pivot? Replying just to reply? The fed pausing hikes is NOT a pivot. They will hike and pause. There will be no pivot until something breaks. I AGREE with the market, WTF are you arguing? Please reformat for comprehension

[Anonymous No.51060457]

>>51060364
Banks will tighten borrowing a lot and higher interest rates means you will be able to borrow less on top of that. They will look at the total picture in terms of your income, assets and job security in a recession when deciding how much they cab risk borrowing you. It’s not going to be like the last 5 years where banks were throwing money after anyone with a pulse.

t. borrowed a lot of money in 2010 and banks were super careful about their DD

[Anonymous No.51060477]

>>51060457
Interesting, makes sense.
I think I'd be in the high tier of people to loan to, but I guess we'll see what happens when the time comes.

[Anonymous No.51060485]

>>51060395
Do you think the US will allow it's proxy states (europe) to pivot away from the dollar? The US isn't really giving them much of a choice given monetary tightening in the US all but assures the Eurozone to start defaulting. They will be forced to bend the knee to Russia and China at this rate.

[Anonymous No.51060556]

>>51060280
>>51060271
see pic >>51060090

The futures markets consistently are the best leading indicators we have for everything. In terms of fed projections, the fed consistently speaks optimistically about the economy and will say "we think a recession is coming and will have to lower rates" because it is effectively a commentary on the fiscal policy. They don't want headlines like: "FED CHAIR SLAMS BIDEN ECONOMY: PREDICTS RECESSION". Especially given mid-terms timing.

>markets reversed course in June, accelerated in august. base case is easing in '23

[Anonymous No.51060569]

>>51060485

> The US isn't really giving them much of a choice given monetary tightening in the US all but assures the Eurozone to start defaulting

Same problem everybody has. Asia is far more vulnerable to a rising dollar than Europe is. China has begun easing and Japan has yet to tighten so the euro isn’t near dead last. The concept of the EU however is not sustainable in a slowly deglobalizing world; a monetary union that cannot enforce politics will not withstand the Russia debacle. Once individual European nations decide to go back on oil and gas sanctions the union will fragment

[Anonymous No.51060605]

>>51060395
>The issue is that you guys can’t comprehend that the price of bonds are based on EXPECTATIONS. You think the fed funds are the only input into bond pricing, which is wrong.

Ja, this is what I was missing. Thanks for taking the time to explain anon. Does the state of the rest of the rest of the world economy make this not (quite) as bad as it would otherwise be?

Also, the way you're explaining things, it sounds like there are even more inflationary pressures than in the 1970s. So do you think we're going to see no fed pivot (and I understand why now) and higher, longer inflation anyway? And what do you think breaks first, or is that unknowable?

[Anonymous No.51060615]

>>51060556

Pretty sure the fact that the fed brought out literally every one of their people to talk back the dovish interpretation of Powells speech tells you it was just that, a dovish INTERPRETATION. Rising equities are inflationary as they ease financial conditions, the fed actually does NOT want equities to go up. Don’t confuse the markets delusion with what the fed actually wants.

[Anonymous No.51060616]

>>51060364
No reason to wait- homes can "crash" by only appreciating 2% when inflation is 6%. still better than holding cash.

If rates go down just refi to lower your rate- you're not locked in to the higher payment

[Anonymous No.51060734]

>>51060605

> Also, the way you're explaining things, it sounds like there are even more inflationary pressures than in the 1970s

Now this is the point of contention among economists. It’s essentially “is inflation transitory?” We have demographic headwinds simply from people having less babies, but we are also witnessing the 30 year end of globalization. We are also seeing China stop exporting deflation through their demographic crisis. It’s really a matter of opinion, but I think the 2% inflation target is gone. Millennials will ask for wage increases, we will see a policy period of significantly less fed easing (less money to equity holders/top 5%), real estate will come down, oil will remain tight due to lack of capex the last 15 years. I think structural inflation is here to stay. Not 8%, but 3-4% long term

> And what do you think breaks first

Asia, specifically Hong Kong and their peg to the dollar. They will run out of reserves and they will depeg

[Anonymous No.51060782]

>>51060615
>the fed actually does NOT want equities to go up.
The fed needs equities to continue to go up in dollar terms or the whole dance stops. Boomers need to cash out their 401K's and the federal government needs the tax money. lets take the 2 options
> raise rates to quell inflation. equity crashes, housing crashes, likely recession, pressure applied to other nations monetary policy, dollar strengthens, imports increase, exports decrease, federal tax receipts plummet, end result is printing anyways to get out of this mess
> pivot to easing: equities up, housing up, business investment up, no recession, helps our "friends" in europe and asia, dollar weakens, exports increase, imports decrease, onshoring continues, federal tax receipts increase

Everyone is taking the second option here. "ohh no institutions and pensioners get mildly fucked in real terms" is the worst thing to happen and its not that bad relative to option 1

[Anonymous No.51060807]

>>51058492
Low quality post, please learn how to read.

[Anonymous No.51060812]

>>51060782
I'll actually do one better and say we will ease so much the fed might actually buy euro denominated bonds/ yen to prop up our allies. That's my actual dovish scenario- base case being the pivot without the bonus propping up non US entities

[Anonymous No.51060838]

I'm not sure you understand this but the FED WANTS people to stop buying houses with loans, that's the whole point of raising interest rates.

[Anonymous No.51060848]

>>51060782

Bond yields no concern to you? When the 10 year yield hit its recent high equities tanked 13% in two weeks. A 5% 10 year yield will take the SPY to 200, pivot or no pivot

[Anonymous No.51060850]

>>51058381
This is actually why dead cat bounces happen all the way down during a crash you retard, because people always try to slurp the dip and get btfo.

[Anonymous No.51060873]

i wish but it looks to me like the plan is to clog commodity markets this winter with the ukraine war canard while simultaneously spiking rates and crashing markets, a massive financial hellscape, and they are approving student loan forgiveness to try to buy off the all the bidenistas in the cities to placate them because otherwise people might be really angry at the shit our elites are about to pull.
the news outlets are still priming the public for more liquidity tightening, telling them that inflation is the problem when really liquidity conditions are already deteriorating economic activity and the time to stop tightening was 2 fed meetings ago.

[Anonymous No.51060890]

>>51060734
Thanks again anon, this all makes perfect sense.

[Anonymous No.51060916]

>>51058381
>then no one can buy a house, including you, because access to loans & credit dries up
I have cash but no job. I want prices to tank so I'll have an easier time buying in full, because I can't get a mortgage even if I wanted one.

[Anonymous No.51060955]

>>51060569
Interesting, and thanks for the reply. Another question I would be hearing your answer to is;
>Will the bust be inflationary or deflationary?
and
>Is there any safe haven to park wealth in or is it time to pick your poison and pray?

[Anonymous No.51060991]

>>51058665
>Because they COULD NOT, physically.
Total bullshit.

[Anonymous No.51061057]

>>51058492
High quality post

[Anonymous No.51061102]

>>51060395
>no pivot until something breaks
>>51060848
>A 5% 10 year yield will take the SPY to 200

Spy to 200 would be something breaking. Thus the pivot. I'm saying we won't get there. If the choice is a >50% equities drawdown vs persistent not-quite-transitory inflation, then the choice is inflation. It's not a hard choice.

The other obvious way out no one is talking about is a large scale war- gets rid of a number of problems in one fell swoop and resets the credit cycle. That would actually be the best way to achieve economic goals. Spend out the ass, lower rates, no one gave a shit about inflation during WW2, loser pays, etc

[Jealous No.51061108]

How is this yogurt?

[Anonymous No.51061187]

>>51061108
if it looks like yogurt and tastes like yogurt then it is yogurt

[Anonymous No.51061618]

>>51060873
Yeah high inflation is a real threat, but lack of liquidity is a much greater threat. The system can theoretically soldier on through high inflation, but a lack of liquidity will unquestionably cause it to seize up immediately.

[Anonymous No.51061948]

>>51061618
Also I think the Fed, as well as the ECB has already done a stealth pivot. Several weeks ago, the 10 year yield shot from 3% to 3.5% in just a few days. Immediately the ECB announced they were starting an unlimited bond buying program. The Fed likewise, at the same time, said they were now employing "unconvential" measures to stabilize the bond market. Nobody besides Mannarino seems to be talking about this, but the proof seems to be in the pudding. Just look at the way longer term yields have been trending downward since then. Maybe its happening just because investors actually expect a deflationary recession, but I think its more likely that either the central banks themselves are buying more bonds and just not telling us, or that investors are at least hoping to sell the bonds theyre buying now to the central banks later on.

[Anonymous No.51062107]

>>51060271
>economy has great employment right now
Thats because 10s of millions of people are gone.

[Anonymous No.51062126]

>>51058381
>TLDR: Buy a house when you are ready, not when the market is. You will never time it correctly.
rentoids hated him because he told the truth

[Anonymous No.51062253]

>>51058381
Kek you're retarded

[Anonymous No.51063103]

>>51057989
>the plan was to spend trillions of dollars at higher interest rates and just cope with the interest
couldn't (((they))) simply do this?

[Anonymous No.51063954]

>>51060873
why to do this?

[Anonymous No.51064372]

>>51057911
we will only feel real pain at 6-7% interest rate

[Anonymous No.51064621]

>>51060873
The only thing that's too tight is your boy pussy

[Anonymous No.51064771]

>>51058381
>The only way a true crash happens is it an economic depression happens
or half the population dies from the clot shot, cratering demand and leaving vacant homes everywhere

[Anonymous No.51064856]

>>51059012
based keep thinking clearly like this and always aware of your psyche and you will do well anon

[Anonymous No.51065362]

>>51059012
Are you looking anywhere in florida with that criteria? I would like to find something on the water in the panhandle of florida with those parameters. is that possible or is it going for much more?

[Anonymous No.51065384]

>>51058381
>The moment a dip in housing prices & interest rates occurs, people will buy it up like mad (literally "buying the dip").

That's exactly what people said in 06.

>inb4 this time is different than 06

You're right it is different, 06 was unprecedented, so is right now. Except this time, it's worse.

[Anonymous No.51065430]

Existing home prices are down 7.5% ytd in my market place, the last 2 months prices have gone down over 2% a month (that is record breaking price decline). This party is just getting started.

Here is the fatal calculation that hoomers make, they calculate buyer demand at infinity.

[Anonymous No.51065500]

>>51065430
b-b-but prices will never go down because everybody needs a place to live god damnit!

This one is my favorite boomer logic. Immediately points them out as one of the people who got brain damage from all the mercury exposure

[Anonymous No.51065548]

>>51063954
maybe its a big plot to negotiate better terms of trade with china, or maybe we're seeing the beginnings of the next world conflict, or maybe its all just a plan to screw us but it is definitely not the right medicine for what is ailing us which is inflation caused by supply shortages rather than demand surplus or "money printing"

[Anonymous No.51065649]

>>51058665
You're such a fucking retard

[Anonymous No.51065705]

While a crash would be nice, I think most people would be okay with prices just going back to 2019 levels. Still expensive but not retardedly expensive.

[Anonymous No.51065708]

>>51061102
so start a war with a peer that we lose in every scenario lol?

[Anonymous No.51065779]

soo sell my house BEFORE november or try to hodl

[Anonymous No.51065911]

>>51058492
he doesnt mean that people buying the dip will save the bullrun, he means that people will run out of liquidity first THEN crash.

[Anonymous No.51065923]

>>51065779
Assuming you're going to want to buy a new house, sell when you want to buy a new house. If prices go down, so will the price of your house. If prices are up, so will the price of your house be, but also the new one you buy.

[Anonymous No.51065940]

>>51065548
Stop polluting this board with your low IQ

[Anonymous No.51066094]

>>51065940
did an ai trollbot come up with that insult for you or did you get it off a flow chart? only 6 minutes until quittin time, just tell the night shift glowies that i've been neutralized for the day.

[Anonymous No.51067096]

>>51058381
You think it will be a bullrun forever?

[Anonymous No.51067683]

>>51058381
>if everyone expects a crash, everyone will behave like they do not expect a crash (immediately buying minor dips)
not sure about this one playa

[Anonymous No.51069780]

>>51061102
>a large scale war- gets rid of a number of problems in one fell swoop and resets the credit cycle
how?

[Anonymous No.51070096]

>>51065362
Yes, it's possible even now if you needed to move, though waiting is a good idea. The segment of area bordered by Ocala, Tallahassee, and Panama City is relatively inexpensive. Finding good internet can be a hassle, and it's somewhat rural living, but the climate is good, the people aren't too crazy, and hurricanes rarely hit the area. Overall pretty alright. Anything over 400k at this point will be a solid home. Next year, that number will probably be 300k.

[Anonymous No.51071824]

>>51058381
Lol. That's like saying if everyone expects a bull market then it's not going to happen. The tops and bottoms are where people are divided but when you're right in the middle of it then it's pretty obvious. There are still people like (You) who deny the crash though.
You're right about the causes of a crash though. Everyone thinks they're going to buy some screaming deal during a real estate crash but if the economy has gotten to the point where houses are even 20% off of their highs then that means the average person probably has lost their job as well. The average person will also be affected considerably by the rising interest rates which will scale with home prices and they won't have the cash to circumvent it.
Personally, I'd rather put $200k into crypto and continue to rent for cheap than put $200k down on a house just to pay taxes on it and pat myself on the back as a home owner.

[Anonymous No.51072163]

>>51058665
>prices will stay elevated while people don't buy
That literally makes zero sense
>a true crash only happens when the economy goes to shit
Which is what it's doing
>people couldn't buy in 2010
They could if they met the criteria to get a loan.
You're comparing two very different scenarios. The Fed lowered interest rates during those times and is raising them today. The 07-10 crash was due to subprime lending whereas today it's due to cheap money bidding everything up and then being gone. The people in 07-10 weren't qualified to begin with whereas the people of today met the criteria since loan approvals have gotten stricter since that crash. The difference is today rates are rising which makes people qualify for less. This is a pretty simple concept. I don't know how 1 point in fed funds rates affects mortgage qualifying but I just know it's less.
I can also tel you that a relatively shitty town nearby to me had a median listing price of $385k and in 2022 it is $550k in 7 years there is absolutely no fundamental reason why houses in that area should be up $200k+
If you think that prices will remain untouched as interest rates climb and the pool of prospective buyers dries up then you are mentally challenged, unironically.

[Anonymous No.51072241]

>>51070096
Ocala fucking sucks so bad I can only assume you're in sarasota to keep people from moving into somewhere nice.

[Fatburg No.51073571]

>>51060390
The fed funds rate is the subject of the pivot

[Anonymous No.51074024]

>>51072241
I said bordered by. Try having some reading comprehension.
Ocala is also fine though if you're looking for rural life. If you're a soishitter who needs the hustle and bustle with exposed brick in your apartment then yeah, it sucks.