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/biz/ - Business & Finance


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51050823 No.51050823 [Reply] [Original]

What the hell is going on? How is this sustainable?

>> No.51050864

>>51050823
>fed prints 4x the total monetary supply
>governemnt gives 80% of that to corporate friends
>government forgives the loans
>corporate friends buy single family homes with free money
yes, op, it is sustainable

>> No.51050915

>>51050823

relax. The median house price dropped 4.6% last month. It's coming down

>> No.51050919
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51050919

>>51050823
Its not.
Thats why 30% price cuts to oversold markets have rolled out over the last 3 months.
Good example are certain areas of Phoenix and its suburbs.
We had a good thread about a week ago of an anon showing those types of price cuts from the peak in Mesa AZ , a massive brown shithole suburb.
Here is an example, look at these kike house flippers try to get out before they go underwater when 3 months ago they were hoping for $100,000 profit off a basic remodel:
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/529-W-3rd-Pl-Mesa-AZ-85201/89710545_zpid/

Worst I've seen so far in this area is some dumbass flipper -27% down from his initial investment plus whatever the cost of the basic-bitch renovations done by unlicensed mexicans were.
Its fucking hilarious and I love watching the prices drop every week.

>> No.51050951
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51050951

>>51050823
It could be worse for them too. Did you know half of all Canadians have an adjustable rate mortgage?

>> No.51050976
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51050976

>>51050919
lmao here's another

>> No.51050979

>>51050823
Two more weeks

>> No.51051039

>>51050823
The Zestimate is all-knowing, omnipotent, and metaphysical honey

>> No.51051121
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51051121

>>51050823
It's not. The crash is happening

>> No.51051127

>>51050823
everyone wants the housing market to crash which is how you know it will never happen

>> No.51051149

>>51050976
Buy high sell low.

>> No.51051154

>>51050823
money printing hasn't reached paychecks yet

>> No.51051396

>>51050823
The only thing unsustainable in the housing market is your bearishness

>> No.51051490

>>51050823
Now zoom out

>> No.51051523

>>51050823
Its not. Bubble gonna burst. Again.

>> No.51051526

>>51051127
This. I am betting against a housing crash. People are just too confident one will happen.

>> No.51051567

>>51050823
It's not but it's what happens when everyone needs a place to live and there is low supply. Also, 90% of people probably couldn't afford the house they live in. Not because they bought something they couldn't afford, but because they bought awhile ago and the price went up. It's sucks if.you got priced out. It'd real nice if you bought in a decade ago and longer. Real nice. Know the cycle or forever remain a nigger.

>> No.51051592

housing crash would be a horrible thing.
jew slumlords will buy up houses for cheap and rent them out to section 8 niggers, and neighborhood goes to shit.

>> No.51051700

>>51050919
God this kind of shit makes my dick hard. I'm all for capitalism and shit, but it gets to the point where the parasites need to get what's coming to them. People who magically be ame "investors" and flippers over the last 2 years are just as bad as loser who flip meme coins and think they're "traders".

>> No.51051710
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51051710

BUBBLES NEVER BURST

>> No.51051731
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51051731

pic rel shows that the market will never go back to normal

>> No.51051737

>>51051710
the fuck you say to me karen?

>> No.51051768
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51051768

Will inflation-adjusted prices ever go back to pre 2000s levels?

>> No.51051782

>>51050823
its not and its in the process of crashing right now. this is 2006

>> No.51051820

>>51050919
Kek that shithole is almost 100 years old who the fuck gonna pay nearly half a mil for it?
>>51050976
These are great

>> No.51051861

>>51051782
So you are telling me it might be two years before housing prices normalize and the bubble starts filling again?

>> No.51051863

>>51050919
>>51050976
I see so many of these in my town.
I use Zillow just to follow flippers and watch them lose money

>> No.51051892

>>51051782
kek houses will not crash unless everyone loses their jobs, can't make the payments and are forced to sell and that's never going to happen

>> No.51051936
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51051936

>spike in housing threads
>rent's due in a week
that explains it

>> No.51051941

>>51051526
yup, the idea that somehow the people with less money and assets are going to come out on top is a fantasy

>> No.51051955

>>51051892
Don't you underestimate the leverage and the mess the flippers have gotten themselves into?

>> No.51051957

>>51051892
>he thinks people are buying houses to live in
lol

>> No.51051969

>>51050823
Housing prices are not going up.
The value of your money is going down.

>> No.51052034

>>51051955
Kek. I didn't the first time. The second time I thought I did. This go around I definitely do. Everyone hangs on to the last possible mo.ent. it isonly then, after years of suffering will they finally let go.

>> No.51052189

>>51051710
that fucking dike bitch only wants to perpetuate the housing hype, because the fat commission checks line her greedy pockets. Anytime I see an agent claiming market is 'up only'. Just wants more sheckles.

>> No.51052236
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51052236

>>51050823
Its the new normal. Its different this time. Demand is too strong. Home values only go up.

>> No.51052521

>>51051127
>everyone
You mean wagies? There's a shitload of normies who bought over the last 2 years who don't want a crash. I'm in a NNZ (no nigger zone), and we've seen such an explosion in people coming here in the last 2 years that we're basically seeing a precursor of the actual housing shortage crisis that'll start to unfold.

>> No.51052704

Home prices are already crashing and the recession hasn't even started yet. Wait until mortgage rates go higher and layoffs increase.

>> No.51052729

>>51050823
You want to see some real shit?
Checkout Canada's numbers lol.

>> No.51052764

>>51050823
Low interest rates and women choosing to work low paying jobs so they can send their kid to day care for 15k/year instead of staying home with them.

>>51051127
This.

>> No.51052784
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51052784

>>51052729
Americans have no idea how good they have it.

>> No.51052853

>>51051127
the dollar will crash regardless
you have nowhere to run

>> No.51052869

>>51051768
>inflation adjusted
try using the real dollar value (divide it by commodities price and do a median line) and you will see the real inflation adjusted price

>> No.51052878

the dollar is going to ZERO
just like every FIAT money

>> No.51052930

>>51052784
kinda weird how the asians have populated so thick and in such a straight line around the whitest areas, what are they planning?

>> No.51053003

>>51052878
Bitcoin is backed by nothing, so by that logic it too is fiat.

>> No.51053016

>>51053003
>fiat: by decree
Bitcoin is voluntary. Government money (fiat) is not.

>> No.51053355

>>51053016
Take your meds schizo.

>> No.51053368

Reminder that California tax revenues are already down 12% and the recession hasn't even begun yet

>> No.51053429
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51053429

>>51051127
The boomers will get eaten alive if the situation become too dire, especially with real estate.
To tell you how bad the situation is : the biggest buyers of newly built homes are boomers with already 4+ houses to their names. They are hoarding 90% of the real estate, and are rackettering us all with rents while pricing us out of the market.

No matter how many new homes get built, they will continuously buy them up, since they have all the capital.
Those houses are supposed to be for new families, millenials in couple, etc, not for old crusty fucks with already a shitload of properties... At least it would if we weren't in a clown timeline ruled over by kikes and boomoids.

But the situation is changing, the macro is in our favor.
First, inflation ain't about to stop, this will only get worse. But for the boomoids, their main revenue are pensions, who are fixed, ie not ajusted to inflation.
As inflation keep ballooning, they will soon have to liquidate other assets just to be able to put food on the table. The thing is, boomers have no other assets than their real estate.

Second, interest rates going up means banks' loans are getting way more expensive, they already went from 1.5 to 4.5 in average, while the Fed only rose them by 250 basis points. On a 30 years mortgage, that's +$100k people have to shell out. In consequence, people are getting cold feet and currently refuse to buy (or banks refuse to give loans, as the salary requirements are so high). This hurt a lot all the home flipping boomers who were used to buy and sell every 6 months for +$120K profits.

Third, if (once) the economic situation become really bad, governments always ends up using price control to calm down populations and smother potential revolts. Thing is, price control always happen with rent price ceiling first, even before food. It's logical, as it's easier for the government to force laws upon the pleb landowners than against giant agro-corpo consortiums.

1/2

>> No.51053439
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51053439

>>51053429
2/2
If rents get price controlled, (or worse : ban eviction memorandum, just like during the scamdemic), it will hurt the boomers like crazy, as their revenue will remain the same, but the taxes on properties goes higher (and even push them toward the next tax bracket, let say if the state assume their house is now worth 10M+ USD -even though they paid 80k for it back in the 80s-) the upkeep costs gets higher, and the mortgage cost more.

Fourth, as western nations become less and less economically attractive, the economic migrants numbers tend to dwindle, the demand from millenials is already really low as they don't have the need for a house (no children), nor the means, and the society is so atomized, they don't have a partner anyway, so tend to live with their parents until very late.
So the demand is very low, but on the other hand, the offer is getting always stronger, as :
>many building projects have been started in 2020-21 when the houses' prices skyrocketted
>boomers are dying at a faster pace, and as they represent 90% of the ownership, it put back a lot of houses on the market

Fifth, and that's only speculations, but i believe the kikes in charge WANT to create a redo of the landlordicide who happened during the maoist revolution in China. Basically if you were owning more than a main residence, your stuff was now property of the communist party, and in bonus you got shot in the head. This way they will continue to D&C populations on a generational basis, while creating a statist monopoly over ownership. The kikes are barely hiding the fact they want the goyim to NOT be home owners. It's the logical next step toward total control over our lives.

>> No.51053515
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51053515

Oh vey

>> No.51053530

>>51051861
no, in 2 years prices will be at all time lows. in the 08 crisis, the crash started in 06 and prices didnt start normalizing until 2010/2011, and inflation of the bubble started in 2011/12 to get king nigger reelected

>> No.51053539
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51053539

>>51051892
are you retarded or just pretending to be? capping this post for my collection along with the bitcoin maxis and cryptofaggots who think their buttcoins will never go to zero

>> No.51053845

>>51050823
Notice how quick upward trends end with a downward trend with the same velocity?
See that practically vertical line at the end? Megacrash incoming. It will only take two years to fall back to early 2020 levels.

>> No.51054356

You will own nothing. Immigrants and insiders get two homes with printed money, you get none.

>> No.51054365

>>51050823
>mean to median
That's just a measure of wealth inequality, commie. Get a grip.

>> No.51054768

>>51053429
>>51053439
good post. real estate is the least risk / least reward and the gains in the future will reflect as such. there is a reason why warren buffet never bought real estate as an investment because why limit yourself to an apartment building or whatever when you can buy quality american companies. The problem is boomers all went through life with a heard mentality and only saw buying property as a serious investment and stocks as too risky. Now millennial are having to take on increasing more levels of risk (meme stocks, cryptocurrency, ) in order to have a chance at building wealth because the path our parents took is just simply not viable anymore.

>> No.51055582

>>51053439
boomers children inherit the property and become boomers themselves. It's a new feodalism. you just can't be stupid anymore but that's impossible for a lot of people so all they can do is lube themselves more so it will hurt less .

It's just funny how i was raised to be a nice boy in this predators world. it's almost too late now.

>> No.51055640

>>51051127
We’ll have a housing crash regardless if we’re heading to 10% unemployment, which is what JPow wants. Low mortgage rates don’t mean shit for dick when you can’t make your payments

>> No.51055665

>>51050864
Going to be real sore when you realize we’re entering a major deflationary event

>> No.51055810

>>51053515
i though market crash was in 2008. that's 3 years before peak house prices.?

>> No.51056397

>>51050951
As does most of the world. I think only unitedstatesians have fixed rate mortgages on the table. As far as I know in Europe you can get your mortgage rate as fixed for the first 5 years and then ir auto switches to adjustable rate. Shit's about to go tits up.

>> No.51056416

>>51050823
just hoping it falls to 2020 levels again, not asking for much

>> No.51056521

>>51056397
I haven’t been keeping track of the action.
In recent years have the European banks been holding a lot of American mortgages? They got a lot of 15-30 year fixed?

>> No.51056941

>>51053515
>middle section
>rent to home price ratio is too large, indicating a bubble
This completely ignores the 2 years of rent increase and payment freezes mandated by the government. There is not going to be another crash. What the home prices do from here on out completely depends on the strength of the dollar. Will it continue to pump due to dollar milkshake and the China Trade War? If so, home prices may contract, but only due to the relative strengthening of the USD.

>> No.51056971

>>51056941
your post completely ignores that prices are limited by prevailing wages and/or declining lending standards, neither of which have kept up with the cost of homes.

>> No.51057060

>>51056971
>prices are limited by prevailing wages
You eliminate this in your very next statement. Loans will stretch or adjust to allow the populace to "own" or rent, even if it's a 50 year loan. It's a hard requirement for a functioning modern society, and the banks are forced to meet that demand as a requirement of their functioning within a society.

>declining lending standards
It's one of the best ways to keep the populace indebted and working. Why would they throw that all away?

>> No.51057110
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51057110

It's not.
The kikes have fucked this nation

>> No.51057165

>>51057060
>It's one of the best ways to keep the populace indebted and working. Why would they throw that all away?

you can't just keep stretching lending standards without exposing yourself to risk. banks are concerned with their collateral. 50 year mortgages are a huge step up in risk due to the increased cost of maintenance of a home over 50 years, combined with the decreased earnings inherent to retirement. US law doesn't allow for debt to be inherited -- there's a real risk that the bank would repossess a worthless house.

>> No.51057210

>>51052869

This, but actually if you just adjust for the circulating money supply, "inflation adjusted" prices are coming off all time lows right now.

Housing are just becoming something more higher income people own now, that's why I think prices relative to median income is dropping. The problem is so much fucking money has been dumped on people with assets and higher income that prices are still low relative to what those people can pay, even if the working class hasn't got a raise to keep up.

>> No.51057299

>>51057165
>banks are concerned with their collateral
That's a good point. I'm not explicitly saying 50 year loans are going to be a thing within the near future, but there are ways for the banks to mitigate risk. Also their core function with regards to the general populace and housing is to ensure they're able to live in a house and continue working/consuming/producing(whatever is most beneficial). How that is achieved and to what degree of freedom the population has beyond that is a matter of standard of living, which seems to be on a downward trajectory for a lot of Americans at the moment.

>>51057210
So what you're saying is, 'you will own nothing' if you're middle class. Who could have foreseen this?

>> No.51057389

>>51057299

Its a pretty obvious trend as more people move to renting, subscriptions, financing, etc. If you own nothing, you can never build wealth for yourself, and can only maintain your lifestyle through waging.

>> No.51057564

>>51051892
Where you not alive under 8 years of Obongo? It was 8 years of being told our best days were behind us. 8 years of being told you were lucky to have a job. I knew people who went through a year of unemployment. If that economy happens again with pantshitter we all are fucked.

>> No.51058846

>>51050823
Here's the cool part, it's not

>> No.51059008

>>51051820
I'd rather have a remodeled home from 1805 than a modern cardboard shithole. If somethings already been around for 200 years I would expect it to last another 200 with some basic maintenance.
>>51051892
>he thinks the housing market is just regular people buying properties because of 'demand'
>he doesn't realize it's just overleveraged real estate chuds and rich chinese moving their money out of china
>Fed raises interest rates, china goes through real estate crash and recession
Yeah bro I'm sure everything is going to just keep going up forever like it always does when people think it's going to go up forever.

>> No.51060328

It's being propped up by corporations and retail dumbasses who are using these houses as an investment.
What most people fail to realize is that houses are a deappricating asset that must be maintained. You can't just by a house and leave it untouched.
You must pay for upkeep, lawn car, property taxes, insurance for if something happens.
Sure, you could rent it out for passive income, but renters are showing more disdain for landlords and are actively neglecting their rental properties.
The only thing of true value in homeownership is the land, but with the current state of cities and WFH efforts, the high value homes in cities will be the first property bubbles to pop.

>> No.51060356

>>51050823
CRASH FFS

>> No.51061006

>tfw bought in cash months ago
>probably over priced
>don't care
>exchanged one overpriced asset for a different overpriced asset
This is such a comfy feeling and if it crashes more of my brothers can buy homes. If my employer tries to force me back I have way more optionality and low burn rate to just go somewhere else or do literally anything I want.

>> No.51061610

>>51051820
I live in a place with old houses and there are 200-300 year old house with a zestimate of over a million dollars.

>> No.51061640
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51061640

>>51051127
It won't look like a crash. It will look like prices holding steady while inflation goes up 15%.

>> No.51061718

>>51056397
How do you have a housing market when your morgage will jump $400.

>> No.51061865

>>51061640
This is why I'm thinking about buying now

>> No.51061900

>>51050823
It's fair t note, and someone may have already, that the size of homes has increased pretty drastically, also.

If you were to adjust your chart to show price per sf, it would not look quite so garish.

Also, where are the houses being built? When Pheonix (or LV or greater LA or DC/Atl/Charlotte exurbs were being developed n the 1970s-2000s, the land was all but free. To get the same land vale now, you would need to build 100+ miles from any central city and few people want that, so there is a land scarcity issue involved in avg home prices.

Lastly, building code requirements require better materials than previously, especially around M, E, and P. Prior to 1990, many home were built without central AC and with shitty wiring lower amp service. Plumbing materials are actually cheaper now, but plumbers are way more expensive.

Anyhow. Housing costs are a real problem, but much of the costs can be explained by peoples' preferences for location, size, comfort and safety.

>> No.51061973

>>51061900
>It's fair t note, and someone may have already, that the size of homes has increased pretty drastically, also.
Every day more apartments are being converted from single tenant to 4 tenants. Square footage for housing hasn't gotten bigger in that respect.

>> No.51061981

>>51061610
They've likely been refitted and major renovation. House in question looks like it would need a lot of work to modernize.

>> No.51062001

>>51061900
>Prior to 1990, many home were built without central AC and with shitty wiring lower amp service
Those houses are still in that housing price graph, it's not like those houses have changed.
t. most of my neighbors do not have central air units and are more than a hundred years old, and have gone up in price by like 40% in the last 2 years.

>> No.51062032

>>51061981
>House in question looks like it would need a lot of work to modernize.
It looks pretty modern by every colonial around where I am, where every room is a box with a fireplace that takes up half the room and is basically immoveable.

>> No.51062034

There's one thing I suggest people looking to buy a house should do. If you see a house you might be potentially interested in, contact the seller and make an honest offer with the price you actually think the house is objectively worth, so >>51050976 would be 60k or so, >>51051731 about 10k etc. It'll demoralize the sellers and prepare them for the reality to come.

>> No.51062286

>>51061973
unless those apartments are being sold as homes, that has no bearing on the chart that was shown.
>>51062001
Yes, that is true, but their value is a reflection of the increase in price of other houses on the market.

eg: If a 1970 house was 1500 sf and had carpets, particle board cabinets, laminate counters, no dishwasher or a/c, 2 outlets per room (and none in halls or closets), no GFCI, no recessed lighting, 7'10" ceilings, vinyl bathroom and kitchen floors, etc) and;

the comparative house today is 2750 sf with 8'6" ceilings, GFCIs, recessed lighting, hardwood floors (at least in public rooms), recessed lighting, builtin cabinets, outlets up to modern code, high efficiency heat pump w gas heat backup, garage, extra insulation, gables and dormers, that accounts for most of a roughly doubling in price - you are getting roughly twice the house.

now if your comps for selling the houses you discuss in housing is now the 2750 sf house with a garage, its comps will also be twice as much.

This means that if all the new houses cost $450,000 instead of $250,000, the existing houses are more valuable.

>> No.51062438

>>51062286
I'm not sure if you've ever looked for a house in an area where none of those things are available. It literally does not matter, the price per square foot is going to be the same because the demand for houses is that high.

I live in a 300 year old house with ceilings you will hit your head on if you're 6 feet tall and don't duck. The floor on one side of a room will be 6 inches lower than the other side. It has non-grounded electric outlets, the interiors of the walls were plastered together with fucking horsehair and mud in some places etc, and having asked realtors and according to zillow none of that fucking matters it's still worth over a million dollars. None of that shit you described fucking matters.

A house that hasn't been renovated in 20 years and one that hasn't in 200 years will have the same cost for renovation, since renovation is literally surface level. Square footage is all that fucking matters after that.

>> No.51062656

>>51062438
I'm not sure you know anything about housing and housing markets.

I don't know where you live, but if it is in a 300 year old house, my guess would be New England or at least outside of the US. If its outside of US, please disregard my comments, as although I think they likely translate to other markets, I really have no idea) Otherwise, yes the cost of your house is based on sf, cost of renovation (which, as someone who owns a 170 year old house and a 70 year old house, and a 25 year old house, I can tell you is not the same, especially if you are trying to preserve historic value) and - most importantly, the costs of new construction.

If you live in a fully built out area, the cost of new construction will include the costs of demolition and permitting.

But, as I also said in my first post, 30+ years ago, you could build new construction neighborhoods within a reasonable drive of metro areas, because the land was cheap. Now the cheap land is 100 miles away.

My point is that existing housing stock is still based on the cost of new construction and is usually cheaper than a new construction house, because a new construction house, especially in a very built up urban area, requires a ton of site work and permitting before you even get to the building phase, and, you have no way of recouping sitework and permitting costs through economies of scale, since you are building one house - meaning you need to build even more SF in order to pay for the pre-development costs.

Anyway, my main point is that housing is a mess, and I am sure there are examples that don't fit the general narrative (altho they likely would still fit the location piece) but when leveled for location, size and amenities, the graph is not nearly as abrupt as the one in the OP.

>> No.51062829

>>51062656
>If you live in a fully built out area, the cost of new construction will include the costs of demolition and permitting.

If you live in a fully built out area, planning and zoning and nimbyism will make any kind of demolition and building literally impossible, so that isn't a factor. I've personally watched these meetings for hours and hours and they make it impossible to build anything.
That's the reason why prices are up, it's just there aren't any fucking houses, which is why square footage is a premium, and why age of a house doesn't fucking matter, because if the houses in an area are all 100+ years old then those are the houses you're going to get.

>My point is that existing housing stock is still based on the cost of new construction and is usually cheaper than a new construction house
Well yeah that would be true if you were allowed to do that, which you never are. There are a million ordinances that take hold in built out areas that prevent that from happening, so when that happens it is 100% square footage that matters.
That is why any areas within these areas that are zoned for multi-family residences turn 1 person flats into 4 person flats because it's all they can fucking do. This is why I said that square footage is getting lower.

>> No.51062975

I'm so close to buying a house... But I feel like big corps and FED is going to keep prices high. Even if they drop on the short term.

>> No.51063072

>>51062829
I am not disagreeing with you specifically, but the flats you speak about - are they being sold or rented?

If they are being rented, then they aren't showing up on that chart.

AND THE REASON THAT THE OLD HOUSES ARE SO EXPENSIVE IS BECAUSE THERE NO COMPETITION FROM NEW CONSTRUCTION TO SATE DEMAND. NEW COMPS DRIVE THE PRICE OF THE MARKET. IF YOU CAN'T BUILD NEW UNITS, THEN THE LOCATION IS THE PREMIUM ---(DOUBLE BOLD CAPS HERE) AS I SAID IN THE FIRST FUCKING POST.

the overall point is that 40-60 years ago you could build 1000 sf houses within reasonable commuting distances of downtown areas and you can't anymore and a combination of size of home (for 90% of the US land area where new homes are being built) and location (for the 10% of US land area like yours where new construction isn't happening) are the driving forces for home price increases.

HOWEVER, even if people could build new homes in your special neighborhood of 300 year old houses, they would be 3x the size of any remnant houses from 1965 and also have a shit ton of amenities, which all drive the price out.

But here is the deal, you are talking about a very specific (micro) market and I am talking about the totality of a multi-decade US housing macro - market, so of course there are variations.

BUT - larger houses, higher quality amenities and land scarcity in desirable areas are the driving factors of most of the price increases.

new homes only make up 10% of annual home sales now (as opposed to 25-35% 50 years ago) but they account for roughly 90% of all increases in housing stock (the others being adaptive reuse apartments from like warehouses or other commercial).

That means that nationally, housing supply is restricted.

As for your comment about "you never are" I think this is more in your market than nationally. It is a problem, but may areas have regular tear down/infill projects.

>> No.51063229

>>51063072
This is the main issue. Sure I can get a home for a decent price but I'm so far away from work that I need to work from home most days. Or I can spend 200K for a similar home that I can bike to work.

>> No.51063486

>>51063229
Fuck bikers