/biz/ - Business & Finance

[Anonymous No.50403989]

hoomers, it's over.

[Anonymous No.50404004]

here come the copes
>low inventory!!
>just a minor dip!!
>will reverse in two weeks

[Anonymous No.50404020]

transitionary drop

[Anonymous No.50404121]

>>50404004
>>50403989
>>50404020
It's impossible for houses to close weekly below the previous all time high, similar to how BTC works.

[Anonymous No.50404693]

Long way to go

[Anonymous No.50404703]

>>50404693
>Home prices level off
>CPI skyrockets to meet it
You know this is going to happen, right?

[Anonymous No.50405814]

>>50403989

[Anonymous No.50405823]

>>50403989
HURRY THE FOK UP AND CRASH 20+% PLS

[Anonymous No.50405843]

>>50404693
i cant wait to buy at 2015 prices with double digit interest rates. rentchads we cant stop winning

[Anonymous No.50405847]

>>50405823
what can a 20% do you faggot? we need the market to crash a minimum of 70%, can't you see how inflated real estate is?

I bet you fucktard will see 20% off some house and buy it thinking you got it for cheap

[Anonymous No.50405872]

>>50405823
>>50405847
This is why the market won't crash too many buyers will jump in at the first sign of weakness in the prices since rental rates are up so sharply.

[Anonymous No.50405879]

Baseline effect

[Anonymous No.50405884]

>>50405872
>This is why the market won't crash
https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Unexpected_hanging_paradox

[Anonymous No.50405935]

>>50404693
is there a housing price chart on tradingview? I could do some good TA if there was

[Anonymous No.50406024]

>>50405884

[Anonymous No.50406096]

>>50406024
Two different markets with two different realities. Cope harder faggot

[Anonymous No.50406176]

>>50406096

[Anonymous No.50406189]

im still looking at basic homes in the middle of nowhere that were $150k in 2018 and now $340k. i hate being a rentcuck and would love some land, but perhaps in another life, brothers.

[Anonymous No.50406215]

>>50405847
-20% IS cheap given how much dollar has lost value its closer to -50%

[Anonymous No.50406226]

>>50406215
If the dollar is worth less then homes will cost most dollars dumbshit

[Anonymous No.50406233]

>>50406189
not to mention, the interest rate is 2.5% higher

[Anonymous No.50406245]

>>50406189
Put down the avocado toast faggot

[Anonymous No.50406264]

>>50406176
Lol what kind of fucked up table is that? Any rational person would assume "house price to income" relates median home price to median salary. Please show me these houses for 1.5x median salary.

[Anonymous No.50406287]

>>50405814
>ohhh check out redfins data, they sell homes and there is no conflict of interest here

the real estate agent and investor is just as evil and dishonest as the banker

[Anonymous No.50406292]

>>50405872
you fucking retard, all the buyers who jumped did so when the rates were low and fell for the 30 year mortgage trap

the impulse shitheads already bought the top you fucking dipshit

[Anonymous No.50406326]

>>50406287
>>50406292

[Anonymous No.50406367]

>>50406326
only a fucking retard would use 2 year data as a way of expecting trendies to continue

i mean, mother fuckers take on a 30 year mortgage and dont look at a 30 year cycle of the market let alone a 10 year cycle

this is gonna be worse than an 08 style crash. houses priced relative to other goods have vastly outpaced the equilibrium which should exist; the artificial demand driven by the idiots buying in a sellers market cannot maintain when wages and the price of goods do not adjust

the CPI and housing is decoupled by over 40%, this means bread and milk will soon be $15 each or housing will need to come down.

the bottom line is MANY FUCKING MORONS WONT BE ABLE TO MAKE THEIR STUPID HIGH MORTGAGE OBLIGATIONS. there will be a shift towards renting and traditionally middle class homes and larger homes with land will plummet

fuck you and your stupid graphs

[Anonymous No.50406383]

>>50406245
south american dog

[Anonymous No.50406464]

>>50406367

[Anonymous No.50406491]

>>50403989
Yeah, sure. Whereas in reality, some of us are old enough to know housings NEVER goes down.

[Anonymous No.50406753]

>>50406491
No way this accurate. People in the 90s had wages similar to today but houses were 10x less expensive

[Anonymous No.50406814]

>>50406753
desu its only to 2013, probs up only since then to ATH

[Anonymous No.50406832]

I'm so excited for the housing apocalypse.
>blackrock sells their bags
>rates go to double digits
>mass foreclosures

If we're the weimar 2.0, a -85% drop won't be unrealistic when the food shortages hit

[Anonymous No.50406838]

>>50406245
>Eating healthy and staying alive longer versus being cucked into the "American Dream" and dying early like a good wageslave
The choice is yours.

[Anonymous No.50406884]

>>50406367
>MANY FUCKING MORONS WONT BE ABLE TO MAKE THEIR STUPID HIGH MORTGAGE OBLIGATIONS.
not the fixed rate gang

[Anonymous No.50406892]

>>50405935
USHPI

[Anonymous No.50406918]

>>50403989
Its a rather minor dip due to low inventory...recheck back with me in a fortnight.

[Anonymous No.50406920]

>>50406264
You mean you don’t have any $60k homes in your area?

[Anonymous No.50406938]

>>50406838
>can’t eat healthy without muh imported $6 avocado toast at Starbucks
Ask me how I know you’re poor AND unhealthy

[Anonymous No.50406963]

>>50406832
I don't think this will be Weimar bad, but 08 bad is very possible. They will blame it on Airbnb's, but of course this was the result of kikery at the fed.

[Anonymous No.50406971]

>>50406491
It's real. It factors both inflation and the increase in home square foot.

[Anonymous No.50406974]

>>50403989
yet commie zoomers on this board will still bitch and moan about high prices

[Anonymous No.50407042]

>>50406971
This was meant for
>>50406753
>>50406814

[Anonymous No.50407078]

>>50406367
>expecting trendies to continue
after your mom dies in her sleep, no more chicken trendies

[Anonymous No.50407102]

>>50406963
Yep, expect at least a full retrace of the fake and gay printed money pump since the 2020 crash by 2023. I don't think the market had to have crashed as hard as it's going to, but the fed made everything worse by desperately swelling the bubble up with QE. Things enter apocalypse mode when foreclosures get combined with unemployment as commodities die off. That's when it's time to prepare for weimar mode

[Anonymous No.50407159]

If you bought a home in the last 2 years, you're unironically braindead. That's buying-BTC-at-69k levels of critical analysis

[Anonymous No.50407185]

>>50405872
demand was pulled forward retard

[Anonymous No.50407208]

>>50406938
Nigger it costs 2 dollars for a loaf of bread and you can get 4 avocados for 4 bucks. That's enough for an entire week for breakfast or lunch.

[Anonymous No.50407278]

>>50403989
If only you knew how bad things really are. Prepare for daily suicide news of bagholding home(shed) owners who got into the market in the last 3 years.

[Anonymous No.50407301]

>>50407278
It's over. Just a matter of time for confidence to crack. Then all hell will be unleashed

[Anonymous No.50407404]

>>50403989
A crash isn't coming lol, housing inventory is at an all-time low. Price correction sure but a crash comes on now.

[Anonymous No.50407453]

>>50407404
Sorry anon, you fell in for the houses only go up meme.

[Anonymous No.50407476]

>>50407159
tfw bought in 2018 and offered 10% below and got it, along with a check ($8.5k) for a new roof

[Anonymous No.50407506]

Damn. Was gonna quit my job for a while but I'm thinking of holding on and buying a house at the end of the year. Home buying always dies down in the winter

[Anonymous No.50407530]

>housing gets stretched beyond the limit with cheap borrowing leading to a speculation bubble and unheard of euphoria
>borrowing becomes 50% more expensive overnight

We're only at the start of the pain.

[Anonymous No.50407550]

>>50407476
10% off of an already 50% overpriced property. Good job anon.

[Anonymous No.50407586]

>>50405814
>>50405872
>>50406024
>>50406024
>>50406176
>>50406226
>>50406464
Bellow Zestimate boomer that posts in every housing thread. I see you got some new cope charts since gettin called out for being a shill. Where's the FRED total inventory chart? I like that one.

[Anonymous No.50407608]

>>50407550
i bought it for 250k
you're saying the house is worth 125k?
you're honestly a pretty stupid person
to imply this house is worth two new cars is just fucking dumb as shit

[Anonymous No.50407627]

>>50407608

Kek masterful bait

[Anonymous No.50407709]

>>50406491
>houses didn't appreciate over 50 years
this is the biggest bullshit I've ever seen anybody put out of their ass

[Anonymous No.50407755]

>>50403989
>price of house goes up 50% over two years
>put it on the market with another 10% tacked on to asking price
>forced to lower the price 20% to sell at 40% over value from two years ago
OH NO HOW HORRIBLE HAHAHAHAHAHA COPE SEETHE AND DILATE RENTKEKS YOU WILL LIVE IN THE POD LOL

[Anonymous No.50407848]

>>50407608
The cars aren’t worth the price either

[Anonymous No.50407902]

>>50407848
ah you're another one of those idiots that think USD is worth what it was 20 years ago
very nice, good luck with that

[Anonymous No.50408139]

>>50407902
Read my post again without your brain filling with shit this time

[Anonymous No.50408176]

>10% OFF
>IT'S A FIRESALE
zoom out, literally

[Anonymous No.50408272]

>>50406189
>basic home in the middle of nowhere
>$340k
this is why house prices are going to fall 50%+

[Anonymous No.50408282]

>>50406226
uh oh, zestimate poster is losing his cool
sorry you bought the top

[Anonymous No.50408297]

>>50406753
Bro similar wages? Are you high? My first job in high school in 1998 paid $5/hr. That same job now pays $15/hr. The house I lived in was worth $180k, it’s worth around $700k now.
It’s not same wages, 10x house prices. It’s more like 3x wages, 4x house prices. My city also saw a 13% population increase as it’s around 160,000 people now.

[Anonymous No.50408331]

>>50407755
the dump is only starting, sweetie
buckle up

[Anonymous No.50408395]

>>50407755
I'll happily buy your house in a few years when you panic sell the bottom. Best I can do is 17% of your current price.

[Anonymous No.50408541]

>>50407755
Don't listen to >>50408395 anon. I will do 22% of your current price if you agree to clean the house for me for 2 years after purchase hahahaha

[Anonymous No.50409552]

>>50408331
>this matters
Nope. I bought a house to live in, not an investment to gamble with. I have no intention of selling. My interest rate is locked. Monthly payments are no problem. The market can pump and dump as many times as it wants. It won't effect me at all.
>>50408395
>>50408541
The only thing you rentcucks will do is battle with millions of other rentcucks during the coming dip. There will be no fire sale. You will all be at each others throats trying to buy the handful of extra houses that will hit the market.

[Anonymous No.50409633]

>>50404703
RE is the most popular asset class and those who own RE tend to vote. The other problem is that RE investors are fucking retards who throw everything they have into it and can't imagine a bear market because RE is always in demand.

[Anonymous No.50409639]

>>50407709
>Inflation hasn't happened in 50 years
You are a retard, holy shit.

[Anonymous No.50409663]

>housing bubble is now the new vaccine where people who watch TV will remain unconvinced because they can never be bothered to look at data

[Anonymous No.50409731]

The neat thing is that vacant land drops harder than developed properties during a crash. I just wanna snatch a half acre a couple miles down the road

[Anonymous No.50409751]

Imagine espousing the same sentiment as normies and roasties by treating your particleboard shitbox as an "investment".

Mortgagecucks treat home ownership as if it was something exceptional but becoming a slave to your mortgage is quite literally the most normie thing one can do.

Houses only go up when the Fed keeps rates low and prints money, we're clearly at the end of the RE cycle and all of the mortgagecucks are seething. Their narratives are blatantly false because there's an overabundance of supply, and once the recession hits, it's over for hoomers.

[Anonymous No.50409787]

>>50409552
>I bought a house to live in, not an investment to gamble with.
that's nice
most buyers in the last 2 years have done it as an investment, over-leveraging themselves hoping to le make it off renting and airbnb
these people are the ones who are going to be dragging your home equity down
i hope you don't intend on moving, ever.

[Anonymous No.50409800]

>>50409751

[Anonymous No.50409831]

>>50409800
smug memes now
bag holding later

[Anonymous No.50409846]

>>50406938
>imported
avocados are grown in the US

[Anonymous No.50409874]

>>50407301
>doesn't know that bond prices go down as rates go up
why do people like you insist on posting?

[Anonymous No.50409887]

>>50409831
>bag holding later
except that you can live in your bag.

[Anonymous No.50409891]

>>50409663
Data you say? Please tell me the Infected Fatality Rate (IFR) for Covid and for common flu.

[Anonymous No.50409917]

>>50409887
like I said, I hope you don't intend on moving for a long, long time.
i will enjoy the flexibility of choosing where to settle down.
after all, there's no guarantee that a house in a good location now will still be in a good location in 2-3 years. lots of things can happen.

[Anonymous No.50409964]

>>50406226
> If the dollar is worth less then homes will cost most dollars
And if they don’t end up costing more dollars when the dollars weaken, that means they are now worth less, brainstein.

[Anonymous No.50409996]

>>50406367
I’m guessing you’re not from the US. Here in the 1st world, we have 30-year fixed mortgages. But I’m sure you brown people are fucked though, you usually are.

[Anonymous No.50410040]

>>50409891

lel I never took the vax because all the data I looked at told me that I had 200 times the chance of being injured by the vaccine compared to dying from covid

Normies can't click on the data provided by national health registries

[Anonymous No.50410062]

>>50409996
He's talking about how the increase in the costs of essentials are going to prevent people paying those fixed payments. While foreclosure would be unlikely it'd be pretty conceivable that a lot of people would need to sell property they can no longer afford if that was the case.

[Anonymous No.50410077]

>>50409996
there are plenty of variable rate mortgages in the US
and as people start losing their jobs and consumer goods become more and more expensive, even fixed rate mortgages will become difficult to pay for many
you people are married to your house bags, i get it. you're not thinking clearly. you think line always go up, just like the BTC and NFT people. but it's just not the case
yes, you can live in your bag. that is your one solace. but it won't save your home equity

[Anonymous No.50410097]

>>50403989

housing market bros. WTFWT!

[Anonymous No.50410103]

>>50410062
>a lot of people would need to sell property they can no longer afford if that was the case.
yup, the temptation to sell and lock in 6-7 figs will grow more and more irresistible, and soon we'll be firmly in a buyer's market
don't say we didn't warn you

[Anonymous No.50410165]

>>50409874
Anon, you just proved that you lack the mental capacity to lead a discussion on housing. This post is to show that RE industry financing is particularly fucked and is looked as more risky than other industries. It gives a broader story than the chart above, but you cannot get it.

[Anonymous No.50410179]

>>50407709
>houses didn't appreciate over 50 years
learn the difference between nominal and real returns
the former is a number in a vacuum
the latter is a number with purchasing power contexts

[Anonymous No.50410256]

>attention grabbing image
Just so you guys know, they deboonked that inventory and supply were significant factors to this. Basically fed said "oops we made a bubble"
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/volatility-in-home-sales-and-prices-supply-or-demand.htmaa

[Anonymous No.50410278]

>>50410256
>https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/volatility-in-home-sales-and-prices-supply-or-demand.htmaa
did you fuckin type the link out by hand?
it's https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/volatility-in-home-sales-and-prices-supply-or-demand.htm

[Anonymous No.50410308]

>>50406892
Thanks, it goes back to 1991.
>>50406491
The common home from post-WW2 to 1990 were 1,000 square feet trailer homes on cement foundation called Ramblers. Boomers wanted better than their parents so we got McMansions driving the average square feet up drastically across the board.
>>50407404
Have you been living under a rock? Housing inventory is no longer at an all-time low.

[Anonymous No.50410320]

>>50410278
Thanks anon, this coomer can't even copy a link properly.

[Anonymous No.50410398]

>>50410308
all these hoomers care about is that they locked in a low interest rate mortgage payment. it's actually the biggest cuck mentality ever lol

[Anonymous No.50410563]

>>50405814
that has got to be to dumbest chart posted here regularly
months of housing supply as if housing is a consumable or perishable
>inb4 its compressed mutt cardboard

if the realtors are projecting housing inventory against peak demand forever they are dumb beyond believe or lying to make you fomo in at the peak

[Anonymous No.50410636]

>>50406892
its a bubble, but we arent at rolling over yet, the bb has a lot of compression to do first
that rsi tho

[Anonymous No.50410665]

>>50410563
The chart you posted clearly shows a significant change in the growth rate in homes and that's the entire reason why experts are talking about a housing shortage.

[Anonymous No.50410802]

>>50403989
I lived through 2008 and I talk to people that lived through others. A housing "crash" is as slow as molasses. It takes years to bottom out. It's also not that big of a deal, you can make a lot of money during a RE down turn. It's actually a good thing too, it clears of all the idiots that over bought. The people that a freaking out are the ones that over leveraged with cash out refinance and HELOC on shit that doesn't cash flow.

[Anonymous No.50410834]

>>50410398
A fixed mortgage and steady job in an area you're comfortable with is peace. Theres a pretty big relief once you actually buy and settle in. You think back to when you were renting thinking you were smart for not being 'tied down', then you wanna beat your younger ass for not buying earlier

[Anonymous No.50411320]

>>50405814
rentoid sisters...

[Anonymous No.50411330]

>>50403989
>share of homes with price drops
Why not just show the actual prices?

[Anonymous No.50411433]

>>50410665
>a significant change in the growth rate
from 2009 to 2012, otherwise its a straight line up ever since at about the same gradient as the pre 2008 slope
where the fuck do you see the change

[Anonymous No.50411506]

>>50411330
Aggregating house prices in this way is often skewed and irrelevant. Also, this statistics is easier to generate for a RE platform.

[Anonymous No.50411511]

>>50410802
This crash is going to make 2008 and 1929 look like a fucking joke retard. If you have property you will lose money.

[Anonymous No.50411524]

>>50410802
Anon, you sound pretty wise. If the market is that slow to adjust, how do I know when to get in?

[Anonymous No.50411579]

>>50411506
Maybe but op's graph is obviously distorted/misleading too. E.g. for example

>late 2019: 250k 3bed/2bath middle class home in Arizona, maybe a slight price reduction to 240k, sells
>late 2020: 350k same type of home, flies off of the shelf, no price reductions
>late 2021: 450k same type of home, flies off of the shelf, no price reductions
>mid 2022: listed 550k, market is cooling, reduced to 480k, sells

2022 only looks terrible by the metric of whether or not there is a price reduction, it doesn't say much else.

[Anonymous No.50411610]

>>50411511
yes, it's much wiser to HODL fiat currency in weimar america, lmao. fucking zoomer, you will own NOTHING.

[Anonymous No.50411628]

>>50411511
And then the government cuts interest rates back to 0% and issues another eviction moratorium.

[Anonymous No.50411643]

>>50411511
Seethe and cope rentoid

[Anonymous No.50411670]

>>50410834
well I hope for your sake that your area remains good and stable

[Anonymous No.50411707]

>>50411643
calling people "rentoid" is not an argument

>>50411628
good, bring on the hyperinflation. bring the whole system down

[Anonymous No.50411778]

>>50406287
I fucking hate real estate agents. A real estate agent tried telling me to buy now in March because homes will keep going up. I know that faggot is getting assraped right now with all these homes that are still on the market that have also received price cuts ranging from 50-100k. Plenty of uber drivers are also real estate agents so maybe soon I get him as my driver.

[Anonymous No.50411780]

>>50411707
>calling people "rentoid" is not an argument
Neither is making assertions without facts

[Anonymous No.50411793]

>>50411780
there's plenty of evidence presented here that housing has topped
you are choosing to ignore it because you have married your house, which you probably overpaid for

[Anonymous No.50411810]

>>50411610
I own silver, and I will be happy.

[Anonymous No.50411818]

>>50406226
read what i said noob

a -20% price crash now would be equiv to like -50% on 2019's dollar value

[Anonymous No.50411846]

>>50407159
>bought 3 years ago

[Anonymous No.50411875]

>>50404121
why is it impossible?

[Anonymous No.50412683]

>>50411778

Real estate agents and mortgage brokers don't give a fuck if you an pay off your house or not they are making money off of market activity.

Always identify what is motivating someone when they try to convince you of something.

[Anonymous No.50412752]

>>50403989
ooh...aaahh....OOOHHHH..I'M..I'M GONNA HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM

[Anonymous No.50412818]

>>50411610
The USDX has been absolutely ripping you goof. Just because retail Randy's like you bought your highly leveraged mortgages, that doesn't mean big players won't drop their bags on your head. Big money is clearly starting to hedge into cash and unload their RE and commodities positions. Or are you retarded enough to believe that the housing bullrun will continue forever?

13 years. Thats how old your bags are if you buy a house right now. You'd be buying 13 yr old bags.

[Anonymous No.50412867]

>>50403989
Home prices will probably drop 5-10% before going back up. We're priced out.

[Anonymous No.50413217]

>>50412867
The options are
>the fed pops the bubble by raising rates
>the fed doesn't raise rates, instead swelling the bubble even more and making the pop even more apocalyptic
I don't mind either of these options, however I believe that option 1 is far more likely. Powell is even throwing Biden under the bus now, meaning that a rugpull is imminent and the fed can scapegoat the retarded zombie president

[Anonymous No.50413258]

>>50411670
Does that not apply to literally every neighborhood? Or is your plan to be a wanderer? Surely you'd at least hope to live in a nice apt complex neighborhood. Or maybe not. Your concerns are valid and redundant, like you're too afraid to make a significant decision like an adult

[Anonymous No.50413462]

>>50411875
It's not. He's a fucking retard coping out of his ass right now. Lmao. Top buyers are going to get fucked, again. I'm all for it.

>t. I have $150k saved in cash and growing and I will use it all for down payments on different rental investment properties that I will then rent out on top buying bag holders who defaulted on their mortgages and lost their homes

[Anonymous No.50413485]

>>50405872

You bought the top of an 80 year macro cycle with historically low interest rates. Prepare you anus as we head towards double digit rates

[Anonymous No.50413503]

maybe if the people ITT had bought homes at 2.5% fixed rates for 30 years instead of bitching for the past two years you'd have a home to live in

[Anonymous No.50413505]

>>50413462
Unfathomably based

[Anonymous No.50413525]

>>50413503
>P.. P... PLEASE BUY MY HOUSE!!!!
No. Not buying your bags. When you default to mr. Noseberg at the bank, ill gladly slurp your property for pennies on the dollar

[Anonymous No.50413540]

housing doesnt crash retard

[Anonymous No.50413545]

>>50413525
Thats definitely what you're praying happens because otherwise for you, homes just got even more unaffordable since both home prices and interest rates are sharply up over the prior two years

Alternatively you could have just bought over the past two years and not had to stress, but that would imply that people on this board make sound financial decisions

Imagine being locked in for 30 years sub-3% while headline inflation approaches 10% lmao

[Anonymous No.50413587]

>>50413540
Why

[Anonymous No.50413831]

its literally DIFFERENT this time retards

[Anonymous No.50413865]

>>50410278
>>50410320
I've had a collective 10 lhrs of sleep last week please ve kind

[Anonymous No.50413951]

>>50409917
hey rentpiggie
RENT IS DUE
you own nothing, and you will be happy

[Anonymous No.50413966]

>>50408297
$15/hr today is less than $5/hr then.

CPI inflation numbers are rigged and not a reliable gauge.

[Anonymous No.50414037]

>>50410040
>all the data I looked at told me that I had 200 times the chance of being injured by the vaccine compared to dying from covid
Post link to this 'data' otherwise I'm assuming that for you that word is just a synonym for /pol/ memes.

[Anonymous No.50414185]

>>50413545
to you and all the fuckers screaming priced out in this thread
do you truly believe there was any period in the past decade where housing outperformed crypto or do you truly believe in the next decade housing will outperform crypto?

this isn't fucking farcebook this is /biz/, unless your nw is at least 5x the value of the home you want to buy, you are better off putting that money into crypto until the afore mentioned condition is reached

[Anonymous No.50414282]

>>50405843
I'm actually a rentoid and proud of it, because I work remotely and engage in geographic arbitage. My rent is like $800 right now. Not telling you where I am. If I went overseas, it could be $200. I'm also in 100% cash. No, I'm not "losing money" to 9% inflation. Inflation does not affect me. I'm literally exempt from inflation, unlike you non-nomads. I will buy your stocks for P/E ratios of 5. I will buy your homes for 2008 prices. Get fucked.

[Anonymous No.50414313]

>>50414037

>he's too stupid to look at national health registries

Oh no

[Anonymous No.50414322]

>>50414185
you're still priced out and you can't live in your ledger wallet you fucking nerd

[Anonymous No.50414339]

>>50414282
you are losing like 15% to inflation using the non-rigged CPI inflation numbers.

[Anonymous No.50414345]

For younger anons, doing 3 years in the military and getting access to a VA loan might be a good move. The process is a little more complicated than a conventional loan, but no down payment or mortgage insurance is nice. Up to you if that's worth three years in the modern tranny military, but hey if you are a tranny you'll fit right in.
>This probably isn't actually true, all the trannies I met were the weird smelly guy that everyone barely tolerated

[Anonymous No.50414356]

>>50414037
I actually combed through the tga data for a whole weekend (that's the australian site) and found the same result. the vast majority of injury reports, which here need to be reported by a dovtor not an individual, were people aged 30-50 and they mostly were either pulmonary embolism, myocarditis, pericarditisn thrombosis, or stroke.

[Anonymous No.50414368]

>buy house at end of 2021 for 500k
>inspectors clear it
>HVAC completely breaks down this summer
>$15,000 to fix this
Fuck you hoomers you lied to me. I am financially ruined.

[Anonymous No.50414403]

>>50414322
explain in your own words how i am priced out of anything if my linkies stack mooned in usd terms in a time period where houses did a 2x, 3x if we are being generous
and i can live in a rental minimizing my expenses as to maximize my stacking wihtout tying up a fuckton of capital in a house

is the concept of opportunity cost known to you at all

[Anonymous No.50414417]

In Canada our market was in a much bigger bubble. Prices have dropped 15-20% already in most markets and buyers are still bidding mostly under the listed price. Looking at trends we will see another 20% drop in prices by late 2022 and early 2023.

We are going back to pre-pandemic prices at the very least.

[Anonymous No.50414424]

>>50414185
i get your point, but for crypto to post those kinds of returns for you on a going forward basis you'll either need leverage or several gambles on complete and total shitcoins. the diminishing returns model for btc is the only one that's been shown to be correct to date, and in fact it is diminishing FASTER than even the original diminishing returns model predicted. you'll be lucky to see $100k next halvening. so there's a lot of risk and timing needed, while a home purchase is generally speaking a lot "safer," notwithstanding a potential correction (which will likely be significantly less severe than a crypto correction, in any event). that, and the fact you can, you know, literally live in a house but not in a hardware wallet, is what makes the hoomer mindset so enticing. i say all this as a guy who did very well in crypto and is a homeowner because of it (and still has a little money in crypto for 2024/2025)

[Anonymous No.50414448]

>>50404121
Kek

[Anonymous No.50414484]

>>50414417

They have to come back to something approaching reality due to interest rates increasing the monthly payments 50% or more.

HOWEVER what we have yet to see is how leveraged the market actually is and how risky people were getting on the "only goes up" meme. Also when the psychology shifts from FOMO to FUD people will be panic just as hard.

[Anonymous No.50414566]

>>50414484
It its leveraged as tits. Basically late 2020 to early 2022 was the busiest home buying period in past 30 years.

Pretty much every one I knew was buying with minimum down payment, many were buying with variable rate too. People were confusing easy credit with increasing wealth and equity when the weather changed they are all gonna get swept away.

Household debt is the number 1 predictor of how poorly a country will fare in a recession. Housing is the number 1 thing driving household debt. That is why countries like Canada and Australia are gonna get fucked bad. The only silver lining is that these countries also have strong energy and commodity markets that can benefit somewhat for current state.

[Anonymous No.50414582]

>>50414368
How old was the HVAC?

[Anonymous No.50414617]

>>50410834
This renties can shoot rifles with the mourning coffee.

[Anonymous No.50414620]

>>50414566
Non RE rentoids are easy to spot. Variable interest rates are below 5%. All of your numbers are wrong

[Anonymous No.50414629]

>>50414417
no they havent.prices have barely dropped 5% in last three months, and only forecast to drop 5% more.
https://wowa.ca/reports/canada-housing-market

outside of toronto and vancouver housing prices are remaining relatively stable. so far. I expect they might drop by as much as 15%. but only because they doubled last year!

[Anonymous No.50414631]

>>50414620
95% of mortgages are fixed rate

[Anonymous No.50414646]

>>50414282
Retard.

[Anonymous No.50414660]

>>50414424
nobody with braincells is advocating being a permamumu you can sell at profitable levels
but either way the dimishing returns model is what is going to get so many people rekt in the next cycle
100k next halving peak is impossible, but i am not going to bother typing that out again

lets just hold it to this as long as fiat gets devalued assets go up, then its just a game of picking which asset has highest rate of change

[Anonymous No.50414666]

good.

[Anonymous No.50414702]

>>50414631
not in canada. thats true in US. in canada the stats are this:
38% of people own thier own home, no mortage
32% rent
30% own, with a mortage.

of those who won with a mortage, over 50% have variables. meaning 15% of population has a variable rate mortage. they will get fucked over next five years.

I cant speak to what is going on in the US, but there will be no "mortage apocalypse" in canada. yes housing prices will drop. but not by much. 15% maybe (in toronto and vancouver), by years end. most of the restof canada will be largely unaffected.

[Anonymous No.50414704]

>>50414620
You dumbass the 5% is significantly higher than 1.5% which was what people were getting a year ago.

Usually that means your monthly payment is gonna be ~30% higher. Even if you are just increasing the term of your mortgage you are gonna get fucked one way or another.

Higher monthly payments is what drives prices lower, as new buyers can't afford what buyers in 2021 paid for the property due to higher rates.

[Anonymous No.50414737]

>>50407709
Check thus out

[Anonymous No.50414777]

>>50414629
lol that data is old already. Average sale price dumped 5% in June alone.

[Anonymous No.50414778]

>>50414629
Check the house sigma for the biggest markets bubbles Vancouver and GTA its down 20% since Feb. peak and dropping like 5% a month.

REIT pricing is usually forward looking and as REIT stocks are much more liquid than actual houses. They are a better proxy for what market will do than any analyst reports. Most Residential REITs are down 30-40% already from peaks and still dropping.

The drops will be uneven for sure. Alberta, Quebec and other provinces without big runup in prices will obviously not drop as much as BC and Ontario.

[Anonymous No.50414784]

>>50414704
The amount of variable mortgages are below 5%. Variables are why the market imploded in 2008

[Anonymous No.50414811]

>>50414737
This is actually somewhat common. I saw a data set once of real estate prices in European cities from 1700 to today and what you see is the same thing over and over. For long periods (~100 years) the prices just keep up with inflation then you have short burst of prices rises. Followed by stagnant periods or crashes.

[Anonymous No.50414822]

>>50414737
>>50414811
Population density was also 10-100x lower in those days in most areas

[Anonymous No.50414831]

>>50414784
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-why-variable-rate-mortgages-could-have-a-double-whammy-effect-on-the/#:~:text=Nearly%2030%20per%20cent%20of,latest%20Bank%20of%20Canada%20data.

Nearly 30 per cent of outstanding mortgage credit has a variable rate, up from just 18 per cent before COVID-19. (April 2022)

[Anonymous No.50414847]

>>50414822
This is not quite true. European cities in early 1900 were much denser than most American or Canadian cities now.

[Anonymous No.50414861]

>>50414847
Factory peons didn't own their homes, they lived in company-provided pods made out of coal sediment

[Anonymous No.50414896]

>>50414861
Doesn't matter. The issue is that most north American cities are really not that dense. There is definitely land to develop in every city besides Manhattan or somewhere like that.

The recent run-up in prices has nothing to do with density. Its all to do with retarded obstructionist boomers and also cheap credit. Both of those tides are turning.

[Anonymous No.50414936]

>>50410308
Looks comfy, could garden it up a bit more with fruits and veggies but mowing lawns with all your neighbros looks fun

[Anonymous No.50414973]

>>50414896
>The issue is that most north American cities are really not that dense
For most practical purposes they are. Everything West of the Front Range aside from the PNW is water-poor, depending largely on the Colorado River, a source that is rapidly depleting. Even if you somehow have the political muscle to confiscate millions of 1/8 acre lots with suburban family homes on them and restructure them into condos, let alone high rises, nature won't be enough to maintain it.

[Anonymous No.50415311]

>>50414973
That is again not a big issue driving the housing prices though. See a City like Vancouver with a population density that is 3rd of 1900's London and no water shortage, where a 2 bedroom condo is a million plus.

[Anonymous No.50415454]

When Syscon was at 0.075 I wasn't here and didn't hear, when Syscon was at 1.3 dollars I heard the news but wasn't privileged. Now that Syscon is at 0.2 dollars this is my miracle beckoning. When Syscon goes to 100 dollars I will testify how I moved from miry clay to mansion.

[Anonymous No.50415468]

>>50414778
>>50414777
doesnt change what I said anon. housing prices DOUBLED during covid. 5, 15 even 35% drop (over 2021 prices) isnt a big deal. for over a year they didnt build any new houses! while they pumped the economy with more stimulus then ever before. housing prices didnt rise because houses got more valuable, they rose because of inflation. that inflation is not going away this year.

the interest rates are a reflection of this inflation as well (which Im sure you know).

REITS are interesting, and maybe a bellweather of residential rental stock. but rental stock isnt really housing stock. singlefamily residential generally arent rental stock. people are dumping REITs at the same rate they are dumping all stock. whole stock market is also crashing. whereas for 78% of Canadians who own there own home, almost sixty percent own thier home with no mortage, and only 25% are in the "truly fucked" position of being stuck in a variable rate mortage.

what do I think all this means.well i dont see house prices going down any more then 20% (over 2021 prices). cause the fact is that real estate is still a good investment from alot of angles. all the other investment vehicles are crashing along with real estate, and investors NEED a place to park thier money that hedges against its primary foe ... inflation. thats why gates is buying up farmland. rural raw land is one of the best hedges. its very hard to steal or destroy and seems to retain its value and reflects current inflation.

so maybe toronto and vancouver get fucked, but most of Canada doesnt really care, and it wont have any significant effect on them. thier homes are paid for, and they dont care whats its worth. ditto for the US. the fools who bought in last two years in the big cities will see a big decline in asset value, but most muricans wont really care.

rentoids on the other are still fucked. rents not going down. not ever. tell me about the time rent went DOWN!!

[Anonymous No.50415573]

>>50414831
yeah variablerate mortage holders are fucked. but that only accounts for 15% of canadian home owners. over 50% of home owners own thier home outright, and almost 20% of home owners have long term fixed contracts. many people also have only five or ten years left on their mortage.

so really you have only a small percentage (maybe 20%) of homeowners who are in a bad position. of those only the ones with big mortages AND a variable rate are going to get fucked pretty fast. the rest are a toss up on whether they can weather the storm.


rentoids of course are still fucked. rents never go down. they still cant buy in to the market. the rents will keep pace with inflation.

[Anonymous No.50415611]

>>50413525
I don't understand this bait. You know some people just buy one home to live in with their family. Buying on a fixed rate mortgage at a sub 3% interest rate is hardly bag holding if it's a roof over your head you're not intending to sell.

[Anonymous No.50415693]

>>50415611
its just some troll dude. normal people buy a house and a small plot of land to provide for themselves the things they enjoy. theres not going to be any big "crash".maybe houses in toronto and vancouver and new york are "crashing", but for most of us, house prices remain relatively stable.

[Anonymous No.50416126]

>>50413545
>interest rates are sharply up over the prior two years
Lel WHAT? Inflation was so low the past few years that the banks were nearly paying you to own a fucking house. How did you think normies making 60k/yr were mortgaging their 500k properties? We haven't even scratched the surface of the unemployment from rate hikes that will absolutely nuke housing when mass layoffs kick in.

But that's fine. Every single euphoria-fueled giga pump of history had guys like you dancing naked in the rain, high on certainty that number go up forever. FYI I don't shit on people who buy homes while managing risk. If you bought your house with a hefty down payment and very minor leverage, good for you. But you're entirely disingenuous if you'd imply that huge swathes of new hoomers aren't up to their eyeballs on leverage. Hell, I know a bunch of retards that are just now "getting in on that airbnb game xD"

[Anonymous No.50416201]

>>50415693
>retail will hold up the housing bubble
Not really how it works. You make it sound like everyone who bought a house just slaps down a pile of cash on the seller's front porch. Most (obviously) rely on their day job to keep mortgage payments coming in, and most of those jobs are contingent on a healthy commodities market. Unemployment, rate hikes, and foreclosures go hand in hand, and we haven't even begun to try and tackle hyperinflation. It's quite delusional to think that the hyperinflated housing market will just float at the current prices and not AT LEAST return to the covid crash lows. Unless you're delusional to think that the stock market run from 2020-2022 was genuine productivity, and not just printed money....

[Anonymous No.50416223]

>>50415468
Prices doubling is only a solace for those who have owned for a long time. You will have a bunch of negative equity, negative cash flow homeowners and real estate investors very soon going full panic mode. Housing is an incredibly leveraged asset. This means small changes can wipe out entire equity very fast.

Vancouver and Toronto are not the only overpriced real estate markets either. In bumfuck no where in Atlantic Canada, Ontario and BC, you will struggle to find a house under 700k.

Even with record high rents, the rental yield is at close to all time lows. Which indicates that the anyone buying right now or in past 2 years is a retard. Looking at rents to price ratio if you have money in Real estate, you probably would have been better off financially selling at the peak and renting for life.

[Anonymous No.50416246]

>>50416223
>Looking at rents to price ratio if you have money in Real estate, you probably would have been better off financially selling at the peak and renting for life.
Yeah because putting your home equity in the market has been such a winner lately lol

[Anonymous No.50416250]

Reminder that the 08 drop took 2 years to find the bottom, and that the drops are not universal across locations

[Anonymous No.50416296]

>>50416246
Of yeah if you are looking past 6 months no. Historically stock market returns about 7-8% annual real rate over past ~100 year. Real Estate give ~1-2% real return typically. Just because you have lived in Canada in 2010's don't let that cloud your judgement.

Countries like Spain had the best performing real estate market circa 2007. See what happened after that.

[Anonymous No.50416348]

>bought in 2015
>home value is doubled what I paid
>friends still renting, praying for a collapse
>it just keeps climbing
>if it ever does collapse, it will still be way more than what I paid
Even I get a win every once and awhile.

[El Arcón No.50416351]

this subway sandwich is poisoned?

[Anonymous No.50416698]

>>50409751
>implying being a rentcuck enslaved to your landlord's mortgage is somehow better than buying a home
You're clinically retarded.

[Anonymous No.50416732]

>>50409787
Why the fuck would I move out of a home I bought to live in? Did you even bother to read my whole post before replying?

[Anonymous No.50416748]

>>50409887
Rent keks and shitcoiners btfo!

[Anonymous No.50416776]

>>50403989
Damn 7% drop after appreciating by 700% in the past 5 years.
I guess it’s over for me.

[Anonymous No.50416791]

>>50409917
>doubles down their absolute state of cope
Chrsit you are retarded. Enjoy paying rent and posting seething shitposts to cope. lol