/biz/ - Business & Finance

[Anonymous No.50337447]

On 2019 the system broke at 2.5%, but now we expect the fed to raise to 7-8%?

[Anonymous No.50337479]

>>50337447
>we expect the fed to raise to 7-8%
huh?

[Anonymous No.50337502]

>>50337447
bump

[Anonymous No.50337518]

no we dont

[Anonymous No.50337540]

>>50337447
>7-8%
No. Also who is
>(((we)))

[Anonymous No.50337566]

Absolutely nobody expects this, the US government will become insolvent

[Anonymous No.50337570]

>>50337447
They won't do shit us defaults at 5% and they can't let the meme that rate hikes are helping fight inflation go on because people will demand the hikes if that happens.

Everyone thinks the us defaults at 12% but they forget that tax rates will go down and gibs up as rates are rising.

it's worse than what everyone thinks by a large margin.

[Anonymous No.50337592]

>>50337570
that's a man

[Anonymous No.50337647]

>>50337447
Fed is the biggest scam in the world, literally more ppl dying, will die because of the fed than in the ww2

[Anonymous No.50337738]

>>50337570
Yeah especially during stagflation where govt interest increases and tax base decreases.

[Anonymous No.50337855]

>>50337570
>>50337738
>>50337566
The fed can just continue buying treasury bonds at the same time as they raise interest rates.

[Anonymous No.50337875]

>>50337447
System so called broke because of covid-19 not interest rate hikes. Im betting that rates peak at 10%

[Anonymous No.50337884]

>>50337570
Which is why they will try to murder the stock market and cause massive layoffs to go full scorched earth on demand bc they know they can raise that high.

[Anonymous No.50337901]

>>50337447
>rate hikes are fucking MOOONING

[Anonymous No.50337941]

>>50337540
What does this table show? The percentage of tax yields needed to service sovereign debt?

[Anonymous No.50338060]

>>50337566
It already is. People will just start noticing.

[Anonymous No.50338069]

>>50337941
Yes US debt.
>>50337855
Yeah I mean there’s no other way to service the deficit debt and obligations. If the fed stops buying treasuries from the treasury then the us will default. The treasury will also default if rates get so high that they service the debt entirely through treasury sales

[Anonymous No.50338093]

>>50338069
>Yes US debt.
where do you get these numbers from?

[Anonymous No.50338102]

>>50337447
if it's broken completely at 2.5% then you can go all the way beyond that without any additional effect. shit's already broken. then everyone who has been saving money will earn a good return on it, which they can invest, and you bet your ass they'll be more careful investors than you bunch of fags running around wasting your money chasing "making it" with fucking fake internet "coins"

[Anonymous No.50338139]

>>50337855
completely misses the point. the rates go up, the bonds are very attractive. the fed doesn't get first crack at them, the markets do, and they will get sucked up by the rest of the world. why the fuck would you risk your money for a 3% return from a shithole when the united fucking states is guaranteeing you a 5% return? and the stock markets in your country are collapsing?
the problem is, the US government can't just up and do that. it can't afford to pay 5% notes. it would actually go broke, instead of pretending it isn't broke.

[Anonymous No.50338157]

>>50337566
I expect it
The fed is REACTIONARY not ANTICIPATORY your crypto is going to ZEROOOO

[Anonymous No.50338196]

You retards do understand that higher FED rates = lower bond yields = more cheap debt for the US Federal Government right?

FED will keep raising rates past 10%. With a debt at 120% of GDP its amazing the US hasnt defaulted already with bond yields at 3%.

[Anonymous No.50338200]

>>50338139
>implying anyone but the fed would buy bonds at negative real rates
>>50338093
Just take the current debt and determine the payment and put it over the tax base. It’s all public info on gov websites

[Anonymous No.50338221]

>>50338196
>higher rates mean cheaper debt servicing
Retarded and arrogant. Higher rates means the price of bonds go down not the

[Anonymous No.50338252]

>>50338221
Yes dumb dumb

Lower yield on the bonds = Washington D.C. has to pay less interest on the money they yoink as debt hence the bonds are worth less.

[Anonymous No.50338259]

>>50337855
not with qt they are not buying a single bond

[Anonymous No.50338284]

>>50338252
Higher fed rate means higher interest rate means higher cost to service debt?? What are you on?

[Anonymous No.50338320]

>>50338200
I'm a brainlet so please indulge me for a second, but doesn't the interest only change for newly acquired debt? Why does it matter if a 7% interest rate would equate about half of tax yields if you could just stop going further into debt? All in theory of course, just for clearer understanding

[Anonymous No.50338339]

>>50338284
Higher FED rate = Lower bond yields = lower cost to service debt

[Anonymous No.50338343]

>>50338252
Are you implying the debt has been expensive to service at 0% rates?? You’re so dumb it made me feel dumb. You are the blackest gorilla nigger in the jungle

[Anonymous No.50338421]

This thread is full of seething bobo nocoiners that don't understand rate hikes are all priced in, this is the bottom. BTC will never be below 19k ever again.

[Anonymous No.50338445]

>>50338343
Why do you think they raise the rates you dumb mouth breather.

If all inflation did was just yoink money from the average Joe but make the US Federal debt less theyd be money print faster than Zimbabwe.

The reason they dont is because inflation = bond yields sky rocket = government has to pay insane amount of interest on their new debt.

And the US is so fucked running on such a high deficit it needs to take on new debt forever to pay off the existing one (i.e. stuck in a debt death loop).

Even so they cant stop what is in motion. They’ll have to remove many senior citizen benefits for future generations.

[Anonymous No.50338472]

>>50337447
Wake me up when that gets over 15%. Until then, it's all piss under the fridge.

[Anonymous No.50338543]

>>50338196
>>50338339
you're retarded and you have it backwards
FED raise discount rate = all new debt and floating rate debt has a higher interest rate

[Anonymous No.50338560]

you're all retarded with your maths and nerd speak
>problem (inflation)
>narrative shift and panic
>"omfg we're all going to die"
>yes you are
>wait we can fix this if you all *insert thing here that restricts freedoms and is literally in your worst interests*
>so guys we have this cbdc
>people clap and jump for joy
>"why didnt we do this sooner??"

repeat.
we're un-ironically early and are gonna make it, we're playing battlefield 2 and normies are still freaking out over pong. don't under-estimate stupidity/fear and greed.

[Anonymous No.50338594]

>>50338320
Well we won’t be able to stop spending. We run a massive deficit with near 0 rates(near 0 interest expense) already. So all new debt is financed at higher rates and will be rolled over at higher rates. I will try and find the maturity of the debt. That will answer your question

>>50338445
>inflation means yields sky rocket means debt servicing goes up
But you said
>higher yields makes it cheaper

Truly retarded

[Anonymous No.50338637]

>>50337875
Kek no, 10% is absolutely not happening. The entire economy would be fucked to no return. We wouldn't even be talking recession, it would be the great depression

[Anonymous No.50338682]

>>50338594
>>50338445
Also before you say
>no I said higher fed rate causes lower yields
What the fuck do you think the fed rate is?

[Anonymous No.50338739]

>>50337570
WHO IS THAT SEMEN DEMON?

[Anonymous No.50338810]

>>50338594
>>50338682
THE YIELD ON THE BONDS IS THE INTEREST % THE GOVERNMENT PAYS ON THE NEW DEBT

MORE INFLATION = INVESTORS WANT HIGHER % ON LOAN = HIGHER YIELDS

GOVERNMENT AND FED DO RATE HIKES TO CAUSE DEFLATION AND HENCE MAKE INVESTORS WILLING TO LOAN MONEY AT A CHEAPER % = LOWER BOND YIELDS

TL;DR

HIGHER FED RATE HIKES = SUPPRESSION OF BOND YIELDS = CHEAPER NEW DEBT FOR THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT

WTF DO YOU NOT UNDERSTAND HOLY SHIT

[Anonymous No.50338889]

I don’t think we’re even at 3% yet. I think the breaking point is around 4

[Anonymous No.50338895]

>>50338421
Legit JPOW finessed it

[Anonymous No.50338965]

>>50338810
The mechanics you described is like saying it rains because the sidewalk is wet.

[Anonymous No.50339056]

But the US won't default this time, right?
Since it controls like half the world's economy through military+finance they can basically rig the system indefinitely or at least while there's something to burn instead of the US economy.
Like EU.

[Anonymous No.50339236]

>>50337875
repo crisis in 2019 was the trigger, the medical episode the excuse for the solution

[Anonymous No.50340578]

>>50338320
Only a small portion of usa govt debt is locked in at low long term rates

[Anonymous No.50340781]

>>50338895
The hero we need but don’t deserve.

[Anonymous No.50340797]

>>50340781
And his side kick btfo molech worshipers.

[Anonymous No.50340820]

[Anonymous No.50340837]

Fed hikes only increase the yields on the short end of the curve. Why do you think the 10 and 30 yield dumped when fed funds priced in 100 bps? Because GROWTH is what drives those yields. That’s why the curve inverts.

>fed hikes
>2y jumps
>30y tells Powell the economy can’t handle anymore hikes and dumps
>inversion deepens

There’s a reason people say the bond market controls the fed. And the bond market is screaming STOP HIKING.

[Anonymous No.50340863]

>>50338810
Ey yo tho bruh, but bond the yields are lagging stated inflation by, like 600, bps at least fr fr.

[Anonymous No.50340940]

>>50338810
You could argue the yield inversion curve actually benefits the fed because investors are locking in long term treasuries at lower rates than short term treasuries. The fed is GUARANTEEING investors a loss but they keep buying because a return of any capital is better than no capital. Money is looking for a home but homeowners are no longer refinancing and buyers are way down. The cash needs a home and it’s getting parked at the fed.

All of these are deflationary for large sums of money. The things you NEED to buy can increase in price, but LAND can decrease in price.

Housing is going to crash. Mark it zero.

[Anonymous No.50341233]

>>50340940
>people don’t need a place to live

Ok, retard.

[Anonymous No.50341417]

>>50341233
You don’t get it. Housing, cars, appliances, and big ticket items are linked to debt. Food and gas generally are not. Anything that functions or sells as a result of debt is going to DECREASE in price as availability and affordability of credit dries up. Ergo the things you need and the things you want (big house big land) will decrease in price because less leverage.

But, keep debt maxxing and let’s see how that works out

[Anonymous No.50341696]

>>50338196
Hello FedCoin. It has been the plan all along. All we need is a market meltdown. Hmmm

[Anonymous No.50341720]

>>50338810
Please be patient with him frens

[Anonymous No.50342580]

>>50340837
>There’s a reason people say the bond market controls the fed. And the bond market is screaming STOP HIKING.
/biz/ isn't ready to swallow this pill yet, whenever I bring it up they sperg out.