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/biz/ - Business & Finance


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50262687 No.50262687 [Reply] [Original]

You know what happens next

>> No.50262690

Insiders are shorting. A huge dump is coming.

>> No.50262754

explain this chart to a normie

Are the Jews shorting?

or retail investors

thank you

>> No.50262834

>>50262687

>only 10% of managers are short at the precipice of the worst economic conditions in 90 years

No reason it can’t bottom at 20% or 25%. The fed has literally never hiked rates into recession. Then add record QT. Then add record corporate debt

>> No.50262899

>>50262834
then add no one selling because they see the imminent debt implosion and have already lost faith in the dollar

>> No.50262901

>>50262834
>QT
Not happening check the balance sheet, would also be priced in IF it was happening.
>Worst economic conditions
Employment just had an excellent report and the bond market has priced in a pivot for January 2023.

>> No.50262945

aren't they a little late to the game?

>> No.50262975

>>50262901
QT has been happening for a year now.

>> No.50263074

>>50262975
No, in fact they have kept QE going. Look at the balance sheet bobo.

>> No.50263085
File: 164 KB, 1645x1536, 710F8BC3-00F9-494C-908C-D9CE5EA201F5.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
50263085

>>50262901

Employment is the most lagging of indicators. You’re literally referring to the top (bottom of employment).

>> No.50263101

>>50262901
>>50262975
sometimes i venture outside of /smg/ just to laugh at how dumb the rest of you are. holy fuck, how are you taking totally different positions but are still both wrong?

>> No.50263111

>>50262901
Motherfucker you are stupid, jobs are not a good indicator.

>> No.50263112
File: 232 KB, 1700x922, 1629988177563.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
50263112

>>50263074
>>50263101
I'm right, you're both wrong.

>> No.50263115

>>50262690
And if it was longs you'd say long squeeze. Retard

>> No.50263126

>>50263085
>>50263101
>>50263112
We are currently at the bottom in both stocks and crypto, you're a bobo faggot retard. have fun staying poor.

>> No.50263132

>>50263126
>We are currently at the bottom in both stocks and crypto
Only in your dreams, brainlet.

>> No.50263142

>>50263101
>/smg/
Literally top 3 dumbest threads on /biz/, only GME and /pmg/ are stupider. There are people in /smg/ who unironically don't understand that the Fed simply sets rates at whatever the bond market prices the 2 year yield in at. It is NOT the other way around and the easiest way to filter out midwits in finance.

>> No.50263147

WAGMI

>> No.50263151
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50263151

>>50262901
>excellent report
kek, gud bait

>> No.50263159

>>50263126

The market dropped more in 2018. Tell me with your 85 IQ, is the macro environment better or worse than then? Can you tell me the last time the fed has raised rates INTO recession?

>> No.50263162

>>50263132
I'm going to be rich from ETH and Matic, hfsp retard. ETH at $1.2k is unironically a generational buying opportunity.

>> No.50263167

>>50263074
No they haven’t

>> No.50263169

This chart is based off a previous timeline (pre CERN)

>> No.50263174

>>50263159
The macro environment is terrible, and the only option is to go even harder with QE and money printing than ever before. They can't raise rates to near real positive rates and inflation will never come down unless they do, pivot by January 2023 at latest, low IQ bobos will lose everything.

>> No.50263181

>>50262690
Based on the chart it looks like the bottom is in

>> No.50263192
File: 120 KB, 1196x912, E6M0llAWEAAF6Pq.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
50263192

>>50263159
It's all going to be ok bro. They have it under control. QE and stuff like that you know. Just don't worry too much about it

>> No.50263226

>>50263174

So you discount all macro headwinds and are literally betting on a fed bailout?

The fed WANTS a recession. They WANT to kill the scorching hot labor market. That is the only way to quell inflation. Powell is NOT going to walk in the footsteps of Arthur Burns, and the bond market is telling Powell he better not fuck up, the US economy cannot support an elevated term premium 10 year above 4% kills the economy. You are going to get run over, guy

>> No.50263238

>>50263226
The bond market expects rates to begin dropping by January 2023, we don't have time for the scenario bobos are describing.

>> No.50263253

>>50263112
thats the wrong chart to look at, you guys are hilarious. QT has been on since like march i think it was
>>50263126
ill see you at spx 3000. i have no idea what bitcoin is going to be at by the bottom, but its not reaching ATHs again until we turn QE back on, which wont be for a while. stopping hikes/QT is NOT the same as starting QE
>>50263142
well if you omitted /cmmg/ i can only assume youre from there, which is hilarious, since that probably THE midwit general on this board. somehow got cucked by /smg/ in the commodity cycle because they were busy holding miners like dummies instead of full oil
and if youre not from /cmmg/ youre still wrong, because anything about the bond market or fed funds rate is completely lost on 90% of this board, whereas its only lost on 50% of /smg/
also youre wrong that only the 2 year yield matters, or that its only the bond market and not the fed at all. they play a nice game of push and pull as it always has been. theres a reason volcker is so revered. not saying thats happening now 1:1 but the fed has the ability to go rogue, by definition of it being like 12 boomers and not a full market

>> No.50263280

>>50263238

What exactly do you think is going to happen to the 2 year yield if the next two CPI reports fail to show any significant disinflation? I’m curious, do you think the fed is going to cut rates when inflation is running 7%? Do you believe that? The current fed funds future are pricing in PEAK INFLATION. Guess what happens if it doesn’t peak?

>> No.50263284

>>50263253
>QT has been on since like march i think it was
Retard alert.

>> No.50263299
File: 35 KB, 982x795, Capture.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
50263299

>>50263284
here the correct chart for you, reddit
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm

>> No.50263303

>>50263253
3000 S&P is bobo delusion honestly not even a serious prediction, it will never happen again.
>>50263280
>I’m curious, do you think the fed is going to cut rates when inflation is running 7%?
Yes, that's the only option they have. The other option is a complete collapse, they will kick the can as usual and perhaps introduce a CBDC once the dollar starts to die off.

>> No.50263315

>>50263253
I forgot that commodity general even exists, I'm a crypto maxi. ETH, Matic, Chainlink the 3 most important assets of the 21st century.

>> No.50263316

>>50263238
>>50263280

It’s a catch 22. The economy must be beaten to submission before a pivot. If you think 385 is the bottom (meanwhile fed hikes lag the economy by 6 months and ISMs are going to be trending lower as long as the fed hikes). The economy isn’t bottom for the next 12 months. We aren’t even in RECESSION yet and you think the bottom is in.

>> No.50263317

>>50263303
thats fair value if you account for the insane growth multiple that was priced in with continued QE
but i doubt you even know what that means

>> No.50263326

>>50262687
the only thing I read in that chart is that record shorts correspond with minor declines

>> No.50263327

>>50263299
Wrong again. RRPs are a stealth form of QT.

>> No.50263343

>>50263303

>Yes, that's the only option they have. The other option is a complete collapse

Equities correcting 40% is a “complete collapse” now??? Wanna know what a real “complete collapse” is? The bond market telling Powell he’s a fucking clown who doesn’t know what he’s doing regarding inflation, the 10 year spiking to 6%, and the US defaulting on its debt. Because THATS what will happen if Powell doesn’t stomp the inflation out. AND WHAT DOES HE HAVE TO LOSE? The rich get less rich?

>> No.50263347

>>50263327
no theyre not, but nice try
hint: one removed liquidity that was in the markets out of the markets, the other prevents liquidity from ever entering the market and doesnt affect bond or equity prices when it rises or falls

>> No.50263397

>>50263343
He can't actually stop inflation because he can't go to real positive rates, the bond market knows this and is calling his obvious bluff. He's basically admitted he can't stop it, so how do you propose he stops inflation? A deflationary recession won't stop it either it would just stagnate.

>> No.50263404

>>50263347
You're wrong. RRPs have the same impact on available liquidity as nonreplacement of maturing bonds.

>> No.50263413

>>50262834
then add planned destruction of goyim capital and establishment of stakeholder economy

>> No.50263427

>>50263162
you mean when it hits $700?

>> No.50263437

>>50263427
It will never be under 1k ever again, you missed the bottom because of greed.

>> No.50263462

>>50263397

> He can't actually stop inflation because he can't go to real positive rates

Not true. Inflation always falls during recessions simply due to a drop in demand. Check 08’ for example.

The fed can play a role in disinflation.

>dump MBS and depress the housing market (shelter is 1/3rd of CPI)
>remain hawkish to maintain a strong dollar, providing headwind to commodities
>Tank equities and lower demand via the wealth effect
>raise rates and cool the labor market and wage inflation
>raise rates and reduce monetary supply

Deflation is the default. Look at the demographics of the west today. The 70s had favorable demographics to pump more and more demand into the economy.

>> No.50263474

>>50263142
>>50263253
Cmmg is the most intelligent thread on the board and pmg is second only because they don't trade stocks at all and just focus on acquiring physical which time and time again throughout history is the smartest and safest thing you can do, at the cost of exponential returns.

>> No.50263479

>>50263404
okay i agree in actuality thats true, maybe i misphrased what i meant; the reverse repo only acts as a stealth form of QT when the deposits into it exceed the purchasing of bonds by the fed in QE. IE when QE is still turned on the rrp only acts as a buffer and there is still net liquidity injection. which means "QT has been happening for a year now" is wrong. there have been net liquidity injections only up until march. the RRPs are just a tool to facilitate movement of large blocks, it alone is not QT. the fed's total balance sheet was increasing up until early this year.

>> No.50263503

>>50263474
>Cmmg is the most intelligent thread on the board
you guys like to think that because all you do is post charts and really in depth proofread posts while /smg/ posts anime and cocks. so you might THINK /cmmg/ is smart while /smg/ is stupid...however, /cmmg/ in all their wisdom bought junior PM miners like fucking retards while /smg/ got rich of off garbage high beta tech stocks and then pivoted to oil. it's pretty impressive that only some of the commodity general could figure out which fucking commodity to buy. how's uranium doing? lmfao. you guys are so dumb

>> No.50263512

>>50263462
Demand drop might lower the inflation from like fake 8.5% to fake 6%, I don't see how they fix the problem in that scenario, unless they literally let it deflate for 5 years straight, but the markets have priced in rate decreases at the start of 2023 and I don't believe they are all wrong.

>> No.50263517

>>50262687
Economy crashes, shorters take profits and buy the dip. Economy truly collapses for real and all the dip buyers get fucked. The Great depression begins

>> No.50263518

>>50263315
Retarded.

>> No.50263524

>>50263427
I don't doubt that it can get that low, but why $700?

>> No.50263526

>>50263518
kek, filtered by Link FUD threads.

>> No.50263533

>>50263479
The chart I posted here: >>50263112 takes into account both the total balance sheet and the quantity of RRPs to measure net liquidity going into or out of the system. The rate of change became negative in the second half of 2021. Hence (stealth) QT can be described as starting then.

>> No.50263535

>>50263503
I bought oil, uranium, gold, and silver stocks. Doing just fine. Wouldn't change a thing.

I don't even want to know what faggoty shit you're invested in.

Everybody in cmmg knew it was a five year investment case.

>> No.50263558
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50263558

>People actually think the US economy can crash
Newsflash, the government has promised to buy everything forever, if you think they won't turn the printers on overdrive to bail everyone out your fooling yourself
>Muh inflation
A meme, a total meme. The idea that inflation is a problem in the modern market is one sold by hucksters that want you to buy stupid shit like g*ld and s*lver, items that were only ever valuable because they were easy to make coinage from, a problem we no longer have since paper money is infinitely more convenient. The dollar is gaining in value bigly right now. Food is going up because and ONLY because energy prices and the price of fertilizer which aren't related to inflation and that problem will be solved as soon as Russia collapses from the weight of sanctions which will happen very soon.

>> No.50263567

>>50263512

> Demand drop might lower the inflation from like fake 8.5% to fake 6%

The great financial crisis reduced the CPI from +5.6% to -2.1% (yes, NEGATIVE). If Powell engineers a recession even deeper than the GFC it could easily have a 3 handle next year. Like I said, you keep referring to fed cuts in 23’ but you need to take into consideration that is only under the condition that inflation rapidly decelerates from here. Go look at 5 year inflation expectations. Any whiff that inflation isn’t declining and the 2 year yield is going to force Powell to 75 bp hikes on “autopilot” until morale (inflation) improves.

>> No.50263569

>>50263474
Cringe

>> No.50263630

>>50263474
Every stock that /cmmg/ was shilling in 2021 rugged

>> No.50263651
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50263651

>>50263535
I invested in 8/10 escort twin sisters and had them eat each other out while I fucked one in the ass

>> No.50263743

>>50263181
Yeah but the chart is only looking at the past 15 years. You need 50 or 100 year history or longer.

>> No.50263748

>>50262687
What happened in 2006 probably

>> No.50263758

>>50263174
How long are you? How much leverage? I need a good wank can you post your positions?

>> No.50263763

>>50263558
Yet the Russian roubles is at an all time high against the dollar. How is the roubles going to collapse when Russia moved it's entire economy internally and through China while democracies still rely on foreign energy and products.

>> No.50263783

>>50263763
>all time high
It's trading at 61 to a dollar right now, that is not anywhere close to the ATH from many years ago.

>> No.50263809

>>50263567
Based on your logic, what's your expectations regarding the possibility of a US default if rates do head higher than 3%? Do you think a default isn't out of the question? What about the dollar? I'm only asking because I'm curious if I should begin moving my money out of America and into Japan or China accounts.

>> No.50263902

>>50263809

>what's your expectations regarding the possibility of a US default if rates do head higher than 3%? Do you think a default isn't out of the question?

It’s not a only a possibility or a question, but simply a matter of math. The higher the term premia, the more the US has to pay in interest to service its debt. The US economy cannot endure rates above 3.5% at the current debt to GDP ratio. That’s why I said Powell isn’t playing games with these rate hikes. He needs/wants (like most governments) the 10 year yield to collapse.

>What about the dollar?

Cleanest dirty shirt in the hamper, am expecting it to test the 00’ high before this is all though

>I'm only asking because I'm curious if I should begin moving my money out of America and into Japan or China accounts.

No. The BOJ is literally fighting for it’s life to maintain YCC. Look at the ass rape the yen has received. Chinas demographics are fucked, still think the US is the absolute best place to park capital

>> No.50263924

>>50263902
Appreciate it mate

>> No.50263977

>>50263474
> Smartest thing you can do
> At the cost of returns
Kek

>> No.50263988

>>50263174
>the only option is to go even harder with QE
you can smell the desperation every time some deluded mumu makes this point. They didn't make it this bull run and they will take any fucking macro situation and interpret it as a sign that money printer boogaloo pt ii is right around the corner.

The 2020-21 bull was a once in a generation event and NO you will not get another one. Jpow doesn't care if you didn't make it, reality doesn't care if you didn't make it. Fate is not going to bend over backwards just to save your bags.

>> No.50264008

>>50262834
Most funds are long only so the fund managers have no choice but to stay in long position.
t. Worked as a wagie on one of these funds.

>> No.50264056

>>50263315
Based

>> No.50264067

>>50263651
pic or never happend

>> No.50264208
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50264208

>>50263303
>>50263315
>>50263174
>>50263126
You glow. I don't know if you're an alphabet agent, foreign actor, or just engaging in some fifth column faggotry - but you absolutely fucking glow. Everything you've said is based on an intentional spreading of misinformation, hopium, copium, ad hominems, and strawmanning. It's honestly only emboldened my plays.

You heard it here first /biz/ - permabulltards are neon fucking green.

>> No.50264377

>>50262899
Japan has 250% debt to gdp ratio, low inflation, and the USD is hammering all other currencies. The US can easily QE their way out of this one for the next decade.

>> No.50264432

>>50262687
So let me get this straight. When they gyrate int shorts stonks decline because they have to sell theire long position and there is a lot of short selling. When they go long stonks rise because there is a lot of buying because they have to cover the shorts and build up the long position again. So it's simply 10% of the managers are selling two times and then buying two times?

>> No.50264542

>>50264377
>The US can easily QE their way out of this one for the next decade
Dollar Milkshake

>> No.50264584

>>50263902
This is truth and anyone saying otherwise is either a dumb fuck investor or intentionally misleading you.

>> No.50264605

>>50264208
Exactly.

Ignore the "products of modern society" as I like to call them. They are fat, dumb, and boomer. They've had quite an easy life and never really had to think about things. They say things like "OPEC will just produce more oil." or "Technology is the future"

>> No.50264827

>>50264605
Now that you brought it up, tech is indeed the future, Tesla stock currently has full self driving priced in and it will be a reality in a few years.
>>50264208
Seethe harder bobo, I'm merely an honest bull trying to help my fellow bizraelis.

>> No.50265070

>>50262687
this guy has called a bottom every other week since feb dude
maybe he's right but his timing fucking blows

>> No.50265078

the recession is about to hit the world fags, gather food or starve

>> No.50265088

>>50263112
fucking retard. that's not what it means

>> No.50265092

>>50262687
lol

this bear market rally is going to wipe so many people out

>> No.50265105

>>50265092
kys. there's no rally coming for you, mumufag. only rope.

>> No.50265140

>>50262687
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eVTXPUF4Oz4

>> No.50265246

Crowded trade.
Everyone worried.
Most the inexperienced are short
Everyone is talking and worried about the most crowded trade in history and is hedging short at least.

History shows this does not lead to a crash

>> No.50265937

>>50263651
Contact info for the escorts please? I just want to help them get some computer classes.

>> No.50266292

>>50263902
>The higher the term premia, the more the US has to pay in interest to service its debt
they don't care

>> No.50266422

>>50263126
You are seriously mentally impaired

>> No.50268216

>>50263567
They will do rate hike for all the 2023?

>> No.50268246

>>50263902
>Powell isn’t playing games with these rate hikes. He needs/wants (like most governments) the 10 year yield to collapse
but when it collapse usd will be worthless

>> No.50268504

>>50265088
Ironic.

>> No.50268784

>>50268246
Nigga the USD is worthless lol its backed by nothing except big F35s and a gay military

>> No.50268890

>>50268784
That is actually a pretty good backing. The F35 maybe not so much, but the military might in general is a great backing.

>> No.50269044
File: 165 KB, 1105x1080, 1633113232283.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
50269044

Oh yeah. It's all coming together.

>> No.50269073

>>50262945
gotta short that last 10%

>> No.50269278

>>50262687
HOw come no one was shorting during the 2008 housing market crash

>> No.50269412

>>50262687
Shit indicator. It didn't predict the 2008 one, for one

>> No.50269426

>>50269278
wasn't taleb

>> No.50269492

>>50263181
this

>> No.50269514

>>50268784
The USD backs the military not the other way around. There is a reason Russia lost it's hold on the block around it when its economy collapsed.

>> No.50270434

>>50263902
>The BOJ is literally fighting for it’s life to maintain YCC
how?

>> No.50271101

>>50264377
>The US can easily QE their way out of this one for the next decade
no it can't

>> No.50271148
File: 560 KB, 367x265, 1542208175176.gif [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
50271148

>>50262687
Did I hear short squeeze?

>> No.50271169

>>50262687
Yeah the entire market shits the fucking bed because the banks decided it will be such
>NOOO THIS IS THE BOTTOM IT'S TIME TO HECKIN SLURPARINO SHORT SQUEEZE JP MORGAN
Grow up faggot, you should have been short this whole time rather than hopium for some pumpium.

>> No.50271179

>>50263397
In the last minutes they admitted they want the higher inflation to make up for the years where inflation was under 2%.
That was the whole purpose of the mega covid QE. Inflation wasn't high enough... lmao
All this bluster about raising rates is a bluff. July will be the last hike

>> No.50271182

>>50262901
>The labor force participation rate, at 62.2 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 59.9 percent, were little changed over the month. Both measures remain below their February 2020 values (63.4 percent and 61.2 percent, respectively). (See table A-1.)

>> No.50271245
File: 42 KB, 1060x532, really jpow.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
50271245

>>50262687
Don't fight the Fed bro. It was true on the way up, and it will be true on the way down.

>> No.50271329

>>50263474
/cmmg/ was literally created to exile the Gayhorse faggots from /pmg/. And then everything got rugged, and the only thing that remained is the sheer schizophrenia.
Not that the /pmg/ fondlebois will ever get any money on their passive-ass non-inflation-hedging worthless assets.

>> No.50271608

>>50263174
>Begging for money printing

Are mumus and crypto tards this pathetic?

>> No.50271627
File: 82 KB, 750x739, 1657074908460.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
50271627

do you retards not realize that large players buy shorts as a hedge? its a safety net not a bet that shit will necessarily go down

>> No.50271798

>>50271627
sounds like you have no idea hahahaaha lmao.

>> No.50271805

>>50271245
Naw this is the heckin short squeeze GME marines were waiting for.

>> No.50271814

>>50271179
coping shitskin nigger. they will keep hiking till EOY. better sell now so you don't lose everything

>> No.50271817

>>50271329
Shiny rocks are cool though.

>> No.50271852

>>50271817
Can't argue with that senpai, I have my own fondlepieces, but at least I'm not delusional about their value.

>> No.50271937

>>50262687
unironically bottom signal that plebbit and /biz/ are seemingly shorting more than ever

>always countertrade retail
and yes you reading this are retail

>> No.50271947
File: 336 KB, 854x710, 1655607162516.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
50271947

>>50271179
>make up for the years where it was under 2%
>real inflation has caused rent to literally double, people are ready for a fucking revolution

>> No.50271948

>>50263162
I can’t wait til eth crashes when some other coin replaces it in the next bull run and cunts like you get to their words. Literally every fuckign coin has some dumbass on here calling it a “generational buying opportunity”. Shut the fuck up fomo inducing clown

>> No.50271980

>>50263315
Why are morons like you always do hyperbolic. Crypto is in its infancy still, we’re barely even 2 decades into 2000, and you say buying opportunity of the century lmao. This place is filled with retards

>> No.50272099

>>50263151
No wonder the economy is recovering. It is shedding its least productive, less intelligent but most overeducated demographic it has.

>> No.50272503

>>50262899
>debt implosion
why?

>> No.50272579

>>50271948
Seething no linker faggot, why are you even on /biz/? This is a chainlink board, still never selling by the way.

>> No.50272767

>>50262687
Pump?

>>50262834
Good use of your brain.

>>50262899
Hold crypto then, there's BTC ETH MOVR QANX LINK XRP for you to choose from

>> No.50274137

>>50262687
The short squeeze is coming soon.

>> No.50274302

>>50262690
Retard, whenever there is record shorts the markets go up. Can you read a chart

>> No.50276309

Only interesting thread on /biz/. Bump.

>> No.50278280

>>50263303
>3000 S&P is bobo delusion
why?

>> No.50279750
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50279750

>>50263558
>if you think they won't turn the printers on overdrive to bail everyone out your fooling yourself
>inflation is a meme

>> No.50279827

>NWO
DXY
>NWO
Yen?

Don’t understand Yen

We wait for Tendieman

>> No.50279844

>>50263151
women quire their jobs to make onlyfans money

>> No.50280731

>>50262687
Are all of you retarded?
These shorts always mark the bottom on this chart.

>> No.50280952

>>50262687
Sideways chop to kill the bears. Nothing special.

>> No.50281014

>>50263299
Based. QT deniers are hilarious.

>> No.50281095

OP is a faggot

>> No.50281114

>>50271937
>plebbit and /biz/ are seemingly shorting more than ever
Majority of retail is still trying to buy the dip. Just read this thread. It's like one bobo spitting facts and eveyone else coping.

>> No.50281144

>>50263162
Wait for ETH at $600 and that's when generational wealth comes in. I'll be accumulating more SCRT at $0.6. This is once in a life time opportunity.

>> No.50281151

>>50263437
Wait for it you moron. Thinkin the market has bottomed out.

>> No.50281175

>>50272767
I'll always have XRP in my wallet holding onto what's coming. Picking up some LOX sounds smart as well as it's something solving a real-world problem of security. Just have them in my XRP ledger

>> No.50281221
File: 80 KB, 1363x552, file.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
50281221

>>50263763
confidently incorrect. 'all time high in the last few years' is a true although far less impressive statistic.