Housing Markets Failing, New Homeowners Fail

[Investment Anon No.50104198]

This is business and finance related because homes are a store of value and therefore an investment i.e finance. Fuck off with your pee poo pee shit mops jannies

It's no secret that the housing bubble not only exists but is bigger and badder than the 08 housing bubble. All the friends you see 'buying' homes are going to be the biggest victims when the markets are allowed to crash. Do not purchase a home - yet. Wait it out. These 'humans' really thought they were making a great investment but now they are tidally locked to debt for the next two decades. Just from my own experience some faggot I used to work with was a chef who got cheated on and joined the army. When he hit E6 he was so excited that he bought a home a month ago. Big fucking mistake. Especially since his particular career field goes down range almost constantly and PCS every year. He was a massive faggot then - and is an even bigger faggot now.

Another woman I used to date became an LPN and decided it was a good time to buy a McMansion. lol On what money I don't know, maybe she is slutting it up on Onlyfans on the side. She has a small mouth though so good luck.

My point is don't be like these fucking goofballs who now will never know financial freedom. Had they waited even another year they could have potentially been fine. Could have is the key word. I monitor the housing markets all across the world. I called the 07 bubble and I'm telling you now this is x3 to x5 worse. The US for instance has a 40 day wheat supply. After that the food shortages come, then social unrest, then big government 'protection' which take freedoms away. The same for Germany, Britan, France and Spain. Everywhere in Europe, Americas and Asia will be absolutely devastated like we haven't seen ever, period.

Be smart. Save as much money as you can and do not buy a fucking home right now. That is all. Good luck on your investments and feel free to tell other anons what you know itt

[Anonymous No.50104321]

>>50104198
Yea I don’t know why jannies would delete this. There are threads about the housing market all the time. I’m just hoping in a few years prices will have come down as well as interest rates so there will be a window to truly get cheapies.

[Anonymous No.50104386]

>>50104198
>I called the 07 bubble and I'm telling you now this is x3 to x5 worse.
OK Michael Burry

[Investment Anon No.50104478]

>>50104386
I called the bubble in 03 so that's way earlier than that faggot, faggot.

[Anonymous No.50104774]

>>50104478
>03
you weren't early, you were just wrong
you're a dumb gorilla nigger, prices didn't correct down to 2003 values until the absolute bottom in ~2010

[Investment Anon No.50104831]

>>50104774
The point is I knew what was going to happen before it happened you dense fucking retard.

[Anonymous No.50104867]

>>50104198

Yet you have people shilling here on biz that the housing market won't crash and it goes forever upwards.

[Anonymous No.50104878]

>>50104831
and you were completely wrong about the timing if you were going around in 2003 claiming there was a bubble and telling people NOT to buy because all that would've resulted in would be them waiting for 7 years to pay the EXACT same price
the timing matters monkey gorilla nigger

[Anonymous No.50104982]

>It's no secret that the housing bubble not only exists but is bigger and badder than the 08 housing bubble

first sentence is false, stopped reading there

[Anonymous No.50104990]

>>50104198
pls let housing crash

[Anonymous No.50105015]

>>50104774
wtf happened in 1971???

[Anonymous No.50105495]

>>50105015
Interest rates fell

[Anonymous No.50105590]

>2021
>year of the 50 debt jubilee
>start of the sabbatical is 2021/09/07
>2022
>year of the 51 debt jubilee
>end of the sabbatical is 2022/09/26
>the goym STILL don't get it!
>when will they ever learn?
>oh wait, never. They're GOYM!

[Anonymous No.50105616]

I bought a house cash in feb 2021 and prices have increased like 30-40% since

[Anonymous No.50105642]

>>50104198
fuck off housing market is just fine

[Anonymous No.50105804]

>>50104198
The housing bubble in 08 was different because right now mortgages are overwhelmingly held by credit worthy people. The only way they can default is if the recession wipes out their fake jobs, which is entirely possible. With inflation, houses are much more expensive to build given the price of materials, the gas to move the shit, and the price of labor is all higher. Perhaps this means the ones that already exist are inherently more valuable, but that's just my theory.

[Anonymous No.50106453]

>>50105804
What if for instance the US falls from reserve currency status? What if just if, we hyper inflate like the Germans before hitler? Whatbif there is a mass dieoff and wesupply suffers a glut? You would think that houses are pretty much in not only the safest asset in the market right now, not bonds, etfs, stockmarket, banking or even manufacturing/power generation? Remember were living in the age of mr JOE Biden, and affortable housing is something that he has utterly destroyed

[Anonymous No.50106604]

>>50106453
Then houses become more expensive, if the dollar were to hyperinflate. The only way the dollar is taken from world reserve imo is if Biden continues escalating like he is in Ukraine and BRICS pledges to stop using dollars at all. It'll all come out in the wash, we can only find out with time.

[Anonymous No.50106660]

>>50104198
The only place I'd consider buying a house now is Eastern Europe

[Anonymous No.50106667]

>>50106604
Thats the problem, if houses hyperinflate, it means there are more problems to worry about. People wont take dollars for houses, hell maybe people will be taking houses for themselves, no rules just flatout squadding

[Anonymous No.50106686]

>>50106453
>What if just if, we hyper inflate like the Germans before hitler?
Japan is getting to that level now, wouldn't be surprised to see it come here soon

[Anonymous No.50106776]

>>50106667
Precisely

[Anonymous No.50106795]

>>50105015
Think of it like how it is today. Imagine were in 1972, the economy implodes in 82ish and from there it took till 2000 to rear the fucker back on track. Weve been on low interest rate villa for 30 years, when interest was low which proped the housing market "inflated it". Think of the juicy drop when the fucker comes down, in the 80s interest rates when up to like 16 percent it was awesome

[Anonymous No.50106845]

>>50106795
The difference is the amount of debt held by our own government begins to have an impact. The interest rates can't reign in the inflation because putting them where they need to be causes the USGov to become insolvent, so it's only a matter of time before they say fuck it, turn the printer back on, and just start actually giving people money.

[Anonymous No.50106878]

>>50106795
Source

[Anonymous No.50106899]

>>50106878>>50106845
Arent bonds supposed to indicate that? If the yield increases were fuckednright

[Anonymous No.50107092]

>>50106899
When a bond yield like the 10y yield on US government debt goes up, that would be the equivalent of a stock being sold off. Less people want it, so they must pay a higher rate to get people to buy it. The prevailing sentiment is that central banks especially the fed bough ridiculous amounts of US10Y because it was going up (selling off) in a ridiculously fast pace. So it would seem logical that the federal reserve does not want that ten year yield above 3.5%, perhaps because the government can't afford it.

[Anonymous No.50108583]

>>50104831
>He can't predict the exact day and hour
Ngmi

[Anonymous No.50108668]

>>50106899
I was looking at the assessor's website on a house in my neighborhood that was for sale and was simliar to mine. They had it listed for $1.2M, but bought it in 1982 for $28k. Pretty fat fucking return if you ask me chuddy boy.

[Anonymous No.50108839]

>>50108668
Lol I saw a house today that changed hands for $180k in 2000, and 190k in 2012. It’s listed for 1.49 mil now in 2022. And people say it’s not a bubble lmao

[Anonymous No.50110627]

>>50106667
>take a picture of a building
>turn it into an nft
>make lace put it in the metaverse and live in a virtual apartment
I don't know what you retards are doing

[Anonymous No.50110899]

I know of houses which buyers that outbid themselves over asking now retract their offer and the sellers dont have buyers even for their initial asking price, all because of rate increases

[Anonymous No.50111005]

Real estate fag here.
Yes, the bubble has burst.
I bailed on a home purchase in February when the war started.
Ok, so here's what's happening:
1. In addition to higher rates, non-bank mortgage companies are starting to fold
First Guaranty Mortgage files for Chapter 11 after layoffs
https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/first-guaranty-mortgage-files-chapter-11-after-layoffs-2022-06-30/
2. Big banks reducing mortgage exposure
There's more pain to come for Wells Fargo's mortgage business. Here are the 4 main factors driving CEO Charlie Scharf's retreat from home lending.
https://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-analysts-rough-road-ahead-wells-fargo-mortgage-business-2022-6
3. US Treasury Unwinding MBS supporting
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/liquidity-is-vanishing-in-this-pivotal-corner-of-u-s-housing-finance-market-as-the-fed-steps-back-11655242219
THIS MEANS LESS LIQUIDITY
Less liquidity means lending requirements become more extreme. Cash buyers will be OK but poor fags? Not so much.

[Anonymous No.50111028]

>>50106453
why would we hyper inflate… germans hyper inflated to pay off debt from ww1.

[Anonymous No.50111034]

"Oh, I have a 2.25% mortgage. Fuck you, I'll rent it!"

1. What happens when you can't find renters?
2. What happens when you lose your job?
3. What happens when you need to move and can't sell?
4. What happens when you move and can't buy and must rent?

[Anonymous No.50111041]

>>50104831
Dude, that chart looks like shorting real estate would have provided 0 zero returns in 2003 to 2008.

[Anonymous No.50111068]

Home prices are going down. I think a minimum of 20% in most markets and possibly higher in frothier markets.
"oh, well, a house is a store of value during inflationary periods and value will go up!"
No, I disagree - you have property taxes, HOAs, maintenance, repairs and transaction costs when you sell. So a house is not quite the store of value people think it is. Especially when no one can get a mortgage.

[Anonymous No.50111077]

>>50104198
love these threads and good work OP. Can you dump any resources datapoints that you have?

[Anonymous No.50111079]

>>50104386
who tf do you think made the post, OP is literally Michael Burry.

[Anonymous No.50111087]

>>50104198

[Anonymous No.50111090]

>>50111068
A house is a financial instrument for avoiding rent payments.

[Anonymous No.50111097]

>>50104198
>Save as much money as you can and do not buy a fucking home right now
I just bought one last week here in bongland. Or more precisely rural Wales. 45-50k. Cheeky little investment, don't mind if I do.

[Anonymous No.50111100]

>>50111087
the second part of this is here
>>50110899


will post the rest below

[Anonymous No.50111106]

>>50107092
>the market sell off gave the fed an opportunity to buy back its debt at a discount
>fed can’t afford to service debt at 3.5%
fed can afford this. the cost to service us debt is a tiny percent of gdp. gov will eventually raise taxes to bring us below 100% debt/gdp

[Anonymous No.50111109]

>>50111100

[Anonymous No.50111123]

>>50111109

[Anonymous No.50111130]

Oh, looks like the big boys have figured it out.
Sternlicht's Starwood Looks to Unload 3,000 Homes for $1 Billion
The property owner is seeking to sell thousands of rental homes as the US housing market starts to ease.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-24/sternlicht-s-starwood-looks-to-unload-3-000-homes-for-1-billion

I own all of my properties in cash. If you have a mortgage, you need to build up at least a 6 month cash reserve and likely 12 months.
Motherfuckers, this housing crash is going to make 2008 look like a game of paddycake.
It won't be the foreclosures that crush the market, it will be the grinding down of prices over a period of 12-24 months as liquidity dries up. At the same time, Joe Biden is going to destroy the US economy and you are going to see unemployment SKYROCKET. Suddenly rental yields are negative and people are like WTF?
Quality of renters is also going to go down. You're going to have a bunch of deadbeats with no money or no jobs who need a place to live.
So you turn over your mcmansion to a renter and 6 months later they leave after destroying a property you bought for yourself.
Yeah frens, it's going to get fucking horrific.

[Anonymous No.50111137]

>>50111123

[Anonymous No.50111148]

>>50111137

[Anonymous No.50111157]

>>50111148

[Anonymous No.50111174]

>>50111157
final

[Anonymous No.50111179]

>>50111090
bro, i've been in real estate for 20+ years. News flash: we're all renters. We are on this Earth for a limited amount of time. Time is the most important asset you have. (Why I waste my time on 4chan I still haven't figured out.) Renting has a place - if you are transitory, unsecure with job or geographic location - renting is not a bad deal.
Now, if you are going to live and die in the same place for your entire life, yeah, owning a house is great. OR if you are a professional real estate person then sure. But owning a home isn't for everyone.
Also, you still pay the Jew rent for his money (interest).
And, of course, even cheap borrowed money needs to be paid back.
Don't hate me. Hate Joe Biden. His administration is crashing the US economy with no survivors.

[Anonymous No.50111255]

>>50111179
>And, of course, even cheap borrowed money needs to be paid back
A lot of mortgage buyers are about to fins out they're not actually financial wizards when it comes to that
>"hey, it's like... free money"
Hmmmmmmmmmm

[Anonymous No.50111356]

>>50105804
This. It's different this time in the sense that the mortgages are backed by people with decent income but their income is coming from absolutely worthless meme jobs that create no real value.
The meme job market is the real bubble that's going to crash everything eventually.

[Anonymous No.50111369]

>>50104198
>everywhere in Europe , Americas and Asia
Okay so everywhere got
It faggot

[Anonymous No.50111404]

>>50111356
throw in $7 a gallon gas, food prices that have gone up 20% and on top of that - job loss.
so yeah, I think Joe Biden is channeling his inner bane right now.
gonna be fugly. i know we lose out on inflation but a cash position to brace for impact is about all we can do at this point.

[Anonymous No.50112076]

>>50111404
what do you recommend for a reter with 160k cash? was tempted to buy, but the market is shit.
a trailer/rv does not seem like an unreasonable idea.

[Anonymous No.50112187]

>>50111005
so how long before prices start crashing?

[Anonymous No.50112630]

>>50112076
fren, i am sitting on cash and building cash for at least next 6-12 months.
i think you will see RVs going down in price as recession hits.

[Anonymous No.50112664]

>>50111068
Those are nice tatas

[Anonymous No.50112676]

>>50112187
i think at least a year before you see prices drop. build cash between now and then.
focus on preserving your capital.
now big bets.

[Anonymous No.50113803]

>>50104198
>t. landlord
Buying real estate isn't like buying GPUs. If prices are low interest rates are high so you're getting fucked that way. If prices are high interest rates are probably low so you get fucked that way. The best time to buy real estate will always be in the last

[Anonymous No.50113838]

every other asset bubble is popping. Housing probably will too as people figure out what the actual value of a home is.