/biz/ - Business & Finance

[Anonymous No.49575152]

Is this, dare I say, capitulation?

[Anonymous No.49575172]

>>49575152
you'll summon spamming log fag with this thread
inb4 a stream of gifs/pics as to why this log band is wrong with no reasoning

[Anonymous No.49575176]

>>49575152
bitcoin is going to like $3k

biggest bubble for all assets since years

anyone not in fiat is gonna kill themselves

[Anonymous No.49575190]

not yet, we're still not there yet, when hedge fund managers start killing themselves in large numbers and people lose their retirements in the stock market and suicide, then we are at capitulation. You'd be silly to think we're there yet, some people still have hope the market will bounce back.

[Anonymous No.49575213]

>>49575190
>some people still have hope the market will bounce back

I'd like to meet them.

[Anonymous No.49575270]

>>49575152
this shit is practically a dead fucking joke now. What's crazy is there are people who still believe in this gay rainbow shit. I wonder what it will look like tommorow when markets open. There's nothing stopping bitcoin from going sub 5k in this great recession.

[Anonymous No.49575291]

>>49575270
How is it dead lol? It accurately describes everything that has happened.

[Anonymous No.49575314]

>>49575291
you can lead horses to water but you can't make them drink

[Anonymous No.49575325]

>>49575213
I see people in every thread on here unironically saying now's a good time to start buying, so that says it all. People are still trying to catch a falling knife and gamble because they're too stupid to look at the actual fundamentals of what's going on.

[Anonymous No.49575331]

>>49575291
It uses the same assumptions as S2F and S2F is completely dead.

[Anonymous No.49575347]

>>49575325
I've seen that shit when we crashed to 3k. Nothing unusual.

[Anonymous No.49575368]

>>49575176
200$ from all my calculations

[Anonymous No.49575376]

>>49575325
This is the most bearish sentiment and most anticipated recession in living memory, the big brain contrarian play would actually be to long.

[Anonymous No.49575379]

>>49575152
we are literally 50-75% away from full capitulation. that graph is garbage and will be redrawn based on the 70k peak and the upcoming sub 10k bottom. Crypto has never been in a bear market.

[Anonymous No.49575383]

>>49575152
buy 1 entire btc if u can

[Anonymous No.49575388]

the chart doesn't even fit

[Anonymous No.49575399]

>>49575376
fed will resort to YCC end of this year, early next year and there will be the biggest risk on of all time

[Anonymous No.49575408]

>>49575376
it will be a big nothingburger as usual. not to say shit won't capitulate in the coming months but everyone here should be accumulating hard over the next 12-18 months

[Anonymous No.49575413]

>>49575291
bcuz my bags have depreciated 80% :(
Haven't you heard?
My personal failing are indicative of the trajectory of the whole market

[Anonymous No.49575420]

>>49575291
It was wrong for the last two years lol

[Anonymous No.49575438]

>>49575420
It wasn't.

[Anonymous No.49575445]

>fuck you mumu! we go 3k!!
>fuck you bobo! 100k EOY!!

[Anonymous No.49575447]

>>49575399
reading
https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2020/august/what-yield-curve-control

[Anonymous No.49575449]

>>49575152
Zoom out

[Anonymous No.49575469]

the rainbow chart dont work no more we didnt go on the red

[Anonymous No.49575507]

>>49575190
Bullfags will never disappear, they'll just move the goalposts. Same with Boboniggers

[Anonymous No.49575532]

>>49575449
kek

[Anonymous No.49575621]

>>49575152
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sIlNIVXpIns

[Anonymous No.49576010]

>>49575152
this whole log rainbow thing is about to get invalidated forever

[Anonymous No.49576039]

>>49576010
yes

[Anonymous No.49576095]

>>49576039
lol stupid faggot your chart is missing all of 2022. post the up to date version, this curve is already destroyed

[Anonymous No.49576271]

>>49576095

[Anonymous No.49576343]

>>49575152
Those sanctions against Russia work so well. Shoutout to the US people for starting a new cold war, I don't know where would be without you.

[Anonymous No.49576381]

>>49575152
>Trends occurring in a totally different macroenvironment are iron laws of nature
lel >>>>>>>/reddit/

[Anonymous No.49576500]

>>49575291
did your rainbow chart consider not 1 but 2 wars?
taiwan wants to talk with you

[Anonymous No.49576540]

>>49575291
S2F had a couple of assumptions and one turned out to be wrong.

The entire thing behind S2F was that they said Miners are the largest selling pressure and therefor during halvenings the selling pressure largely goes in half, which results in market forces pushing the price up.

However S2F never accounted for the fact that every time a halvening happens not only the selling pressure from miners drop in half but also the dominance of miners as BTC holders drop in halve. This means every halvening retail holders of BTC become more dominant.

Therefor S2F holds less true every halvening because the mining rewards becomes less and less relevant to the spot price of BTC as conventional traders decide volume and price.

In retrospect this is really fucking obvious. But it was a nice narrative and I'm sure it led to the nice rally of $60,000 a coin.

We're never going to see that high ever again on BTC though.

[Anonymous No.49576677]

>>49576540
>Never going to see the that high
Smells like 2018

[Anonymous No.49576734]

>>49576540
Capped. The point about retail is very clever. To me there was always the drawback of assuming constant buy side (extra fishy) but the point about trader/miner dynamics is much better.
Where have you seen this argument discussed? Would love to hear your recs on newsletters/communities/authors/etc to follow.
Are you in the 200k+ discord by any chance?

[Anonymous No.49576751]

>>49576271
and in 2028 100,000,000,000 will get you a gallon of milk

[Anonymous No.49576758]

>>49576677
Different macroeconomics. Interest rates were at an all time low, while the supply of money increased exponentially during corona relief efforts.

We're now going to see the opposite, extremely high interest rates at central banks to try and stop the inflationary spiral. Assets are going to bust while cost of living goes up due to war.

The last time this happened most risk assets dropped 90% in valuation (1980s).

Crypto is the highest risk asset in existence it's going to drop the hardest out of all assets. But housing, stocks and bonds are all going to drop too

[Anonymous No.49576769]

>>49576271
>changing the goalposts
>dude just redraw the lines!
stupid faggot stfu

[Anonymous No.49576787]

>>49576343
>implying eurofags didn't sanction russia too
its even worse for you fags because you're actually dependent on russian gas, way to shoot yourselves in the foot

the funny thing is that the main goal of the US is to stop china's rise, but this literally helps china more than anything, now russia is firmly on china's side and is going to be building gas pipelines straight to china which is going to fix one of china's major achille's heels (being dependent on gas from the middle east traveling from the persian gulf to china which the U.S. could stop if it wanted to)

[Anonymous No.49577000]

>>49575420
>>49575469
>>49576010
>>49576540

Jewish hands typed this

>btc never going that high again
>chart doesnt work
>we didnt hit red tho

Kek the chart is more or less dead on. Id bet money we hit red before the next halvening.

[Anonymous No.49577098]

>>49577000
Kek has spoken

[Anonymous No.49577114]

>>49576734
I do my own analysis and don't rely on third party commentary. As an aggregation of macroeconomic factors I use: https://www.franklintempleton.com/insights/anatomy-of-a-recession#recession-risk and some other none-free resources.

You already heard of YCC so I think you're familiar with most of them. Biggest tip is to learn economic history and how different events impacted the economy at the time. My best predictions have always come from some niche event that happened decades ago that closely matched the circumstances and resulted in similar price trends.

For example I made a lot of money buying oil stocks during the peak of tech stocks knowing how the 1970s/1980s ratio tech to oil stocks panned out. I'm now selling oil stock to buy tech stocks again. This flip happened already and I actually think it's insane that the market didn't price this in. You genuinely have a leg up if you know your history as most of the market, even the most ardent experts usually don't factor these events into calculations.

[Anonymous No.49577150]

>>49575152
People still have hope so no

[Anonymous No.49577174]

>>49575152
The rainbow suggests we should see a bottom around 18k

[Anonymous No.49577183]

>>49575152
This chart has no statistical backing behind it. It's sucks you retards are gonna find that out the hard way.

[Anonymous No.49577210]

>>49577114
Why do you think we'll never see BTC at 60k ever again? Shifting of liquidity to other cryptos?

[Anonymous No.49577237]

>>49575445
/thread

Same as usual. Now it's mostly bobos, 6 months ago it was mostly mumus. Same pattern over and over again till the end of time. BTC 100k EOY (2024 or 25)

[Anonymous No.49577239]

>>49575152
So the last bull run pretty much proved le heckin rainbowpride chart was bullshit right?

[Anonymous No.49577249]

>>49575152
My prediction

[Anonymous No.49577327]

>>49576039
My favorite meme chart, if it wasn't for the
>MATHEMATICALLY PROVEN dome theory
BTC is going to negative 60k EOY, check em

[Anonymous No.49577396]

>>49577239
What are you talking about? In hindsight it called the top pretty well, just as the pi cycle indicator. Problem was everybody expecting 6 figs, which is why the majority didn't sell and got fugged

[Anonymous No.49577468]

>>49577114
That's very interesting, thank you.
How do you judge which events resemble history and which ones don't? Tech stocks of 80ies are definitely not tech stocks of today, neither is technology's influence in society similar (just like how Google is a worse monopoly than Ma' Bell ever was), so I might have second-guessed this.
Are books a good source for learning history like this? Can one just plot ratios and try to go from first principles?
By the way, FOMC minutes use YCT (yield caps or targets) instead of YCC; I wonder if there is a message there.

[Anonymous No.49577504]

>>49575152
No. It literally has to go off the chart below the blue and into the white. We still need to see crypto tards unironically rope themselves here and on Twitter. I expect that to happen by the end of Summer.

[Anonymous No.49577524]

>>49577396
Yeah, I'm pretty sure everyone claiming it would reach 100k made it so no one wanted to sell, price stagnated and big movers called it the top and started selling

[Anonymous No.49577541]

>>49575172
>49575172

[Anonymous No.49577664]

>>49576787
it's almost like they are trasferring power from the US to China on purpose. Wake up, the masters of the US of A have been balls deep into China since the 80s. The oil from Russia is exactly what China needed to surpass the western naval power. The coming decades will show that the world became multipolar right about now.

[Anonymous No.49577666]

>>49577541
why don't you finish the gif and show us how it completely broke under the lower bound this time

[Anonymous No.49577727]

>>49575176
Got a buy order for 21,000,000 BTC when it hits $0.01

[Anonymous No.49577817]

>>49577183
>shills all over encouraging people to sell
>doesnt realize old crypto fags will hodl til zero

Yeah Im thinking the bullrun is back on within a few months

[Anonymous No.49577881]

>>49575152
The rainbow has long since turned downwards. The last peak should already be in max bubble territory.

[Anonymous No.49577937]

>>49577210
>Shifting of liquidity
Yes, but not to other cryptos. Shifting of liquidity away from risk-on assets. Crypto had a perfect storm from 2020-2022 because interest rates were at 0, people were sitting at home with excess spending power and excess time, Financial stimulus with no good place to park it except for crypto which achieved high yields.

The factor of people sitting home with expendable income is going away. The financial stimulus is going away and in fact we are getting the reverse, rising interest rates.

The perfect storm that led to $60,000 BTC is not going to be replicated again. This had nothing to do with S2F, or any other "inevitability" hypothesis people pointed out. It had everything to do with cheap credit, financial stimulus, expendable income and too much time on retail's hand to properly get into it all.

Can you even think of a scenario where that perfect storm repeats exactly to replicate the environment where BTC hit $60,000? It's not going to happen again.

>>49577468
>Tech stocks of 80ies are definitely not tech stocks of today, neither is technology's influence in society similar (just like how Google is a worse monopoly than Ma' Bell ever was), so I might have second-guessed this.
You need to look at what tech stocks represent in investors minds, not what they actually are. They represent future growth and a drive for disruption no matter what the actual underlying company behind the stock does. They tend to go in a bubble when credit is cheap while sucking money out of "boring" resource stocks. In the three recent times this happened it was always best to invest in oil stocks, this was in the 1980s, 2000s internet bubble and 2021-2022. It's the exact same sentiment for the exact same underlying reasoning.

[Anonymous No.49578099]

>>49577937

This. I said it myself in Q4 2020. Crypto is a extension of the stock market. If you understood the market it was obvious we were gonna bull for a while. Stimulus checks, normies entering the market, Robinhood, meme-coins. Perfect. What do people sell first? Watches, jewelry. Excessive things. Often sentimental, but of no real functional value. And then you have digital assets, literally worthless. The first to go was the NFT's. That was a early signal of what was to come.

We will get a new bullrun, but it wont be to 60k. It will be from 1-2k to 10k. This coming bear will be a great time to buy LINK and other worthy coins, just like the firesale after dotcum bubble.

[Anonymous No.49578141]

>>49575152
The lgbtq chart never worked and was always retrofitted. Now it doesn't even take into account the overpeak 2014 and the underpeak 2021. It only worked in 2017 because it was retrofitted.

[Anonymous No.49578186]

>>49577937
You're obviously not dumb but they said the same thing when btc dropped in previous years as well, and it continued to go up when the economic conditions were ripe. We'll see who's right in time.

[Anonymous No.49578368]

>>49578186

BTC has never been in a economic situation like this. We have been in bull since its inception.

[Anonymous No.49578514]

This recession is way overblown and will be corrected in 1 year

Stay poor

[Anonymous No.49578515]

This is just a random Monday. Next support is around 20k. The really convincing support isn't until 12k though. No matter what, this isn't going to be a V shaped recovery. Not in this environment. It could bounce between 20k and 30k all year. Altcoins are fucking ruined. The stock market is barely even starting its own sell off.

[Anonymous No.49578574]

>>49578186
Think about it like this. What route would BTC have taken if covid never happened? Would it have continued on its downward trend it already had or would it have shot up out of nowhere like this?

If you state it as simply as that it's obvious that it was influenced by macroeconomic factors and not "underlying growth of the blockchain" or something you'd see people on /biz/ claim.

The 2016-2017 crypto bubble and subsequent pop and the 2020-2022 crypto bubble and subsequent pop both have almost nothing in common with each other either. Someone holding through 2018 didn't brilliantly anticipate a global pandemic and subsequent bullrun due to financial stimulus. He was just extremely lucky for fate to strike him in the wallet.

There's absolutely no guarantee macroeconomic factors will align to make BTC go up in the future again. It's irrational to assume it will.

[Anonymous No.49578612]

>>49577541
remake it with log curves which dont go backward on x

[Anonymous No.49578613]

>>49575176
>Crypto crashing
>Inflation skyrocketing
What do I do with all my shekels?

[Anonymous No.49578618]

>>49577937
Wtf are you rambling about

>perfect storm
covid wiped out entire industries for a time, economy tanked, BTC dipped to 5k.

Christ you faggots are insufferable

[Anonymous No.49578702]

>>49578618
this

[Anonymous No.49578725]

>>49578618
Covid resulted in the biggest stimulus injection we've ever seen in human history. This combined with 0% interest rates means the money would get parked in assets such as housing, stocks and crypto. That's what we're talking about.

Everything crashed at the start due to both uncertainty as well as not having a guarantee that there would be stimulus. The moment it was obvious governments would compensate with stimulus all these assets mooned due to the effects described above.

Immerse yourself some more in macroeconomics.

[Anonymous No.49578757]

money move to some alt
wired af

[Anonymous No.49578805]

>>49575152
if only there was a model for when free money like we had since 2008 stops

[Anonymous No.49578834]

>>49577000
I never said btc isn't going up again, I simply said simple faggot easy mode cope chart was a useless predictor since 2020

[Anonymous No.49578905]

>>49578757
Some alts are at generational buy zone desu

[Anonymous No.49579026]

>>49578725
Yr absolutely full of shit. Restaurants and all their employees, airline workers, bars, everything but groceries and healthcare was locked down for months while people had no income. They had to change the law so you couldnt evict people because they had no money to pay. Thats not a perfect storm for a bullrun you fucking moron now kys

[Anonymous No.49579104]

>>49578574
>There's absolutely no guarantee macroeconomic factors will align to make BTC go up in the future again
What about the growing need for a reserve currency acceptable to all superpowers that isn't the USD?
>inb4 CBDCs
Those are just meme bucks for captive citizens. Useless for trading between states.

[Anonymous No.49579117]

>>49578834
But somehow its still accurate....its all so tiresome. It will be innaccurate if btc goes to 5k or 500k before the next halvening and crabs there you dumb fuck

[Anonymous No.49579165]

>>49575152
The magic TA rainbow chart says BUY BUY BUY BUY

[Anonymous No.49579259]

>>49578574

>its irrational to assume it will

Same thing said after every crash. See you at 1 million per BTC this decade

[Anonymous No.49579260]

>>49575152
Bitcorn has never existed during a recession.
Bitcorn doesn't provide any utility other than hoping someone else buys it for a higher price.
Bitcorn has failed as a store of value.
Bitcorn has failed as an inflation hedge.

Bitcorn is over.

[Anonymous No.49579637]

>>49579104
Not an actual investment thesis and merely just a narrative to sell BTC on, similar to S2F. Don't base your investments on narratives base them on actual macroeconomic factors.

We know this:
>Interest rates will rise for the coming quarters/years
>Risk-on assets will be sold
>Retail investors have less to invest and historically don't keep savings during times of inflation
>Credit will be more expensive
>Lowered value of assets means less leverage ability

Ask yourself how all of these factors will impact different assets and you'll get the answer for why BTC is going to underperform extremely harshly in the coming years and most likely never recover to $60,000 which required comical levels of a perfect storm to achieve in the first place.

If you don't know what these things mean then please educate yourself on these matters before investing any further.

[Anonymous No.49579764]

>>49578613
Buy goods like gas cans, butter, wheat, oil and stuff like tuna.
Since Biden said "The food crisis is gonna get real.", I'd invest mainly in food and profit off of those, who did not prepare at all

[Anonymous No.49580017]

>>49579637
Interest rates will rise
But this is a mathemetical impossibility, with debt loads accross every sector as high as it is, rising rates mean total default and an end of fiat
The eurozone is now in the terminal zone where they are at risk of losing the currency and be reduced to barter deals for international trade, no way any government is willingly going to give away fiat powers, they will print
At that point its outside money to the moon, even high rate people like zoltan poszar mentioned crypto in his note about this

[Anonymous No.49580107]

>>49579260
the points about the recession + unreliable storage seem to be reasonable calls for FUD, actually.

[Anonymous No.49580154]

>>49580017
>with debt loads accross every sector as high as it is
It's going to be harsh for third world countries whose debt is denominated in USD. But it's going to be alright for the west and other first world countries like Japan. They are actually in a far better position than during 2008. The situation isn't looking bleak. Especially the Eurozone and US have very healthy economic indicators. Many of the bigger EU countries are actually in a better financial position in 2022 than before the Covid pandemic started (Lower debt, better balance sheets, higher export rates) Like Germany, The Netherlands and Scandinavia.

Interest rates are going to go up, assets will go down but the economy isn't going to go through a harsh recession. It'll be a manageable contraction, at least in the west. Third world countries are going to crash and burn the hardest we've seen in 50 years time though.

[Anonymous No.49580169]

>>49577000
Checked

[Anonymous No.49580338]

>>49580154
lol who will be able to service if rates actually go up?

[Anonymous No.49580396]

>>49580154
Man that is some hopium you are smoking. What about all the zombie companies propped up by zero rates and massive QE? Not to mention governments who have been able to service debt extremely cheaply.

[Anonymous No.49580603]

>>49580396
>What about all the zombie companies propped up by zero rates and massive QE?
Bankruptcy but the actual indicators themselves show (at least in the EU and US) that outstanding debt is on average going down, average profit margins are still trending up.

Businesses are largely solvent. This isn't 2008 where everyone and their mom was overleveraged, profit margins were razor thin and banks were giving out free credit. Legislation passed after 2008 largely reigned it in. Profit margins are very very high and most businesses can still take a financial hit.

Will we see a contraction? Yes, but just a normal end of business cycle type of contraction, barely a real recession.

Third world is absolutely going to have an economic collapse they've never seen before. They are overleveraged, in extreme debt they can't afford to service, They run large negative trade balances, large amount of government intervention exacerbating the bad situation etc.

What we're going to see is the west holding on while the rest of the world is going to see a 1930s style economic crisis if the current macroeconomic indicators hold.

Baby boomers are dying and their capital is leaving the markets which third world countries relied on for cheap financing. That is all going to fall away, causing these countries to collapse.

Sri Lanka, Lebanon and Turkey are examples of what is going to happen to all countries not in the US, Eurozone or OECD. It's not looking good for them.

[Anonymous No.49580676]

>>49580603
>Sri Lanka, Lebanon and Turkey are examples of what is going to happen to all countries not in the US, Eurozone or OECD. It's not looking good for them.

it's going to happen for OECD nations too, minus a few nations.

Euro hyperinflates as l*ggarde is forced to save southern nations buying bonds and doing YCC.

Fed will be forced to do the same due to high unemployment / economic crisis before eoy.

Leafland the same, bongland the same, chile will also get high inflation despite being a oecd nation with historically low inflation rates , israel will also have low inflation but food import costs will rekt the economy.

Turkey is the future of most nations sadly.

[Anonymous No.49580769]

Man, I just don't give a fuck anymore. We had a -30% per month since January. Fuck this, I will keep an eye out for my margin level so I don't get liquidated. I capitulated, it is a bear market, they won.

[Anonymous No.49580817]

>>49580154
i don't know in what world you live anon but the situation is catastrophic in europe right now, the whole industrial system is going to keel over in late autumn if this russia nonsense isn't resolved very soon
and regardless of anything the med countries are being detonated right now and its hard to see if that can be stopped without massive qe2
at the very least for germany and the netherlands to survive they will have to go back to their old national currencies
and that is on top of all the numbers magic, how good does germanies balance sheet really look like if you factor in deutsche banks default

[Anonymous No.49580842]

>>49580676
>it's going to happen for OECD nations too
No, economic indicators are extremely healthy for OECD. In fact in all of my 35 years of life we've never experienced a better economic foundation for the west than we have in 2022. I know /biz/ doesn't like the hear that but I can't even name a genuine weakness that can act as an Achilles heel.

And no 8-10% inflation doesn't even register as a weakness. In fact you can even say that it is delayed inflation that should have happened after 2008 anyways since we came short on inflation for almost 15 years now. I'm going to take the contrarian stance on this one and even claim that the 8-10% inflation we're seeing is healthy and better for the economy compared to a scenario where this inflation never happened at all.

[Anonymous No.49580899]

>>49580817
The only fucking solution is a global wage spiral, they should do a controlled one in my opinion but boomers want to adjust downward they don't realize wages are so supressed that a recession will ironically don't fix labor shortages you will see 10% unemployment with record job openings due to jobs not providing even enough to pay for transportation.

>at the very least for germany and the netherlands to survive they will have to go back to their old national currencies

This is so fucked up but it's true it's almost as if they had to gamble to save southern europe or northern europe lmfao.

[Anonymous No.49580940]

>>49580842
>economic indicators are extremely healthy for OECD
there exists no production capacity, nor shipping fleet in the world to keep europe supplied with gas this winter
just how far do these 'indicators' go when people are freezing in their homes and all industry is shuttered again
and don't say they will capitulate to russia demands, all eu politician are under orders from washington to fight russia to the last european

[Anonymous No.49580952]

>>49576769
>>49576095
>>49576039
>>49575152
You're all just drawing lines that fit the charts with no reasoning behind any of it.

[Anonymous No.49580976]

>>49580842
>I know /biz/ doesn't like the hear that but I can't even name a genuine weakness that can act as an Achilles heel.

How about europe massive industrial inflation?If laggarde rises rates southern europe dies, if they don't they will see massive inflation, probably argentina tier inflation by eoy.

How about rents going up 40% eoy in burgerland and anglosphere?

OECD nations are reaching argentina tier level of economic fuckery while providing a larp of stability on the macro, while things destabilize behind the scenes to insane levels.

>I'm going to take the contrarian stance on this one and even claim that the 8-10% inflation we're seeing is healthy and better for the economy compared to a scenario where this inflation never happened at all.

Agree that is healthy but it's not healthy if wages are supressed due to inflation, you will see a wage spiral once the market corrects that will make argentina macroeconomics seem stable.

This is coming synchronized with boomer retirement on top of that.

[Anonymous No.49581037]

>>49580940
>there exists no production capacity, nor shipping fleet in the world to keep europe supplied with gas this winter

Yea not enough capacity to move gas is another massive behind the scenes fuck up, on top of that the cunts are trying to ban combustion engine in 13 years which i am sure will help getting investments in gas ports lmfao.

We are in pre crisis of the third century conditions now, it's over, i am just glad crypto is correcting first, so we can have a bullrun after these boomers discover reality.

[Anonymous No.49581067]

>>49580817
>i don't know in what world you live anon but the situation is catastrophic in europe right now

Here's the macroeconomic situation for Europe right now

Business Indicators:
>Average Profit Margin at an ATH
>New orders rising exponentially each quarter and at an ATH
>Truck shipments rising and at an ATH
>Commodity (input, like fuel) prices rising, but profit margins rising even faster

Consumer Indicators:
>Retail sales rising and at an ATH
>New housing permits rising and at an ATH
>Jobless claims dropping and at an ATL
>Wages rising (this is the only unhealthy indicator)

National indicators:
>National debt dropping and almost back to pre-pandemic levels
>Positive Trade Balance increasing and at an ATH
>Industrial expansion and a rising market share in global industrial sector
>Inflation (Only potential unhealthy indicator)

This largely also holds true for the US and OECD nations like Canada, Australia and Japan. I don't think I've personally seen a healthier economic foundation than the west is finding itself in right now in 2022.

[Anonymous No.49581131]

>>49579026
you are fucking stupid, keep smoking that copium

[Anonymous No.49581152]

All the nonstop FUD from the big stable crash, inflation, war, food shortage, monke disease, and all that shit looks orchestrated. The end game is to do a quick reset of the crypto market before SEC takes the wheel after the crypto bill passes I suppose. I capitulated, fuck crypto and fuck the governmen, they can't do shit to make the living better so we can finally evolve and conquer other planets. We are doomed to stay like this and destroy ourselves just because some big nosed cunts want to keep buying cars and have some paper in their pockets and numbers on a screen in their bank accounts. We.Are.Doomed.

[Anonymous No.49581172]

>>49581037
>crisis of the third century conditions
no thats the optimistic scenario, even during the worst of it rome was still a single market that supplied itself they weren't under catastrophic threat from removal of a critical resource

our current situation is more like a greek tragedy, we are in pre bronze age collapse conditions: an interconnected trade net spanning the known world
entire societies critically dependent on resources sourced half way across the world
and then suddenly surprise rugpulled those
now way our crisis gets drawn out for a century, it will be hard and fast, i have said so before here multiple times europe cannot survive without russian energy

[Anonymous No.49581194]

>>49581067
No offense anon but those are boomer tier opinions all those ath are happening due to capital flow out of fiat to goods, and jobless claims is also together with labor participation being at all time down.

and wages are rising below inflation rate which will cause a massive labor shortage by eoy as quiting and getting a new job has become the best negotiation tactic to get a wage increase.

[Anonymous No.49581201]

>>49581152
how is it FUD when gas is literally $5/gallon and you can walk into the store and see everything costs 20% more than a few months ago?

[Anonymous No.49581260]

>>49581201
Ask a boomer that hoards FIAT like a smelly racoon if he wants to invest 1$ into this market when he already lost 20% on gas and food every month since May

[Anonymous No.49581314]

>>49581067
pure delusion
companies are already shutting down due to energy prices
farmers arent buying fertilizers so crop yields are about to plummet and the chemical clusters are on shuttered operation cycles
retail and hospitality was slaughtered during covid and is now given the final kill shot as people don't spend anymore

i don't use government statistic tho, i use living during this crisis and looking around me
i really don't understand how anyone can believe government statistics of record profit margin with energy costs just moonshotting like a shitcoin

[Anonymous No.49581443]

>>49581194
>all those ath are happening due to capital flow out of fiat to goods
I agree, the difference is that I see this as a healthy indicator as inflation has been too low for the past 15 years and the west finally catching up, the increase in consumption is a healthy response to this. It would have been bad if consumption dropped or stayed static.

>jobless claims is also together with labor participation being at all time down.
This is a fair point but also not necessarily such a bad one if you recognize that a lot of people leaving the labor market are retirees.

>and wages are rising below inflation rate
Sadly that isn't the case (that would have been good news), wages are rising faster than inflation rates which is an indicator of future inflation getting worse. I already conceded that wages rising was a bad indicator but it's basically the only bad indicator in an otherwise golden era economic situation. Like I said, I've never even experienced the west being this financially secure and stable.

[Anonymous No.49581475]

>>49581131
Furthermore, rising insane inflation recently took the opportunity to buy the dip out of most of retail. Cars, food, bills, everything is up. Once people see the dollar is fucking worthless monopoly money, theyll run to real estate, crypto, and gold. The great resignation gave common people immense leverage, and BTC will continue to be a long term hedge against Federal Reserve kvetching

[Anonymous No.49581546]

>>49581475
nigger, did you miss the part where tech and most other stocks (other than commodities) have devalued faster than inflation?

why would I leave the dollar (devalued 20%) for crypto (most alts down 90%+, BTC down 50%+, etc.)?

[Anonymous No.49581552]

>>49581314
>i don't use government statistic tho
Yeah, I noticed.

No offense anon but I'd rather judge macroeconomic trends from aggregated data from a couple dozen independent institutions that align with each other. Rather than act on personal limited gut feeling and anecdotes from anonymous posters on some imageboard.

[Anonymous No.49581585]

>>49581172
We are fucking doomed as a society. We are one step closer to getting a global reset and destroy ourselves. It was never meant to work. This society feels like a test created by the elite that when failed, is ready for total destruction. I don't seem to figure how the actual fuck they have 0 (Zero) thoughts about starting the space conquest age. Invest all that stupid paper into building rockets and science so we can leave this fucking burning ball of shit and you can have all the power in the world when alien pussy sees you as a god. I know you are reading this FBI, FUCK YOU

[Anonymous No.49581667]

>>49581585
meds, young man, please

[Anonymous No.49581693]

>>49579637
>comical levels of a perfect storm
Thinking that anything that's happening right now is in any way random, or a "perfect storm".
NGMI if you take things at such trifling face value.
You need to become more schizo.

[Anonymous No.49581735]

>>49581667
Yeah, fuck you too SEC . You came here to see if we capitulated so you can pass that crypto bill?

[Anonymous No.49581810]

>>49575152
>Is this, dare I say, capitulation?
No. There are currently only 11 pink wojaks in the catalog.

[Anonymous No.49581850]

>>49581552
i expected such a reply and i understand your reasoning behind it
but given the rugpulls we have seen develop in speedrun time in crypto don't you think the gov has a vested interest in lying all the way to end to protect their ponzi
either way i made up my mind on these trends, you yours let reality now judge it

[Anonymous No.49581868]

>>49575176
3k is not that low.. I would get worried under $850-1k .

[Anonymous No.49581907]

>>49575176
Pls sir tell me how to get this retarded as well?

[Anonymous No.49581932]

>>49581546
Weimar. Why would I want to keep assets in cash thats just more Federal Reserve tricks. BTC is safer. Besides Im hedged in index funds and real estate so idgaf.

Seems like a like of posters here now are really intent on getting people on biz to sell their crypto. Hmmm. Thanks Ill buy more and ride it to zero or Vahalla. If I want to hedge risk further Ill buy boomer metals

[Anonymous No.49581943]

>>49577541
oh hey. It's the retard

[Anonymous No.49581945]

>>49575176
>>49581868
You fags will be left holding your fiat, just like the retards waiting for 1k back in 2018 or covid crash.

[Anonymous No.49581964]

>>49581735
Its all psyops and bullshit IMO

[Anonymous No.49581987]

>>49581585
>I don't seem to figure how the actual fuck they have 0 (Zero) thoughts about starting the space conquest age
To them the solar system would just be too large to keep under control. You'd get offshoots of humanity doing their own thing out of reach. You can only go to Mars once every 2 years.
That's why they want us to stay here. So we stay in their corral. They don't want another fiasco like what happened with the discovery of the New World.

[Anonymous No.49582048]

>>49581475
>The great resignation
Is this a real thing though? Something seems off about it.

[Anonymous No.49582051]

>>49581546
Also, BTC is up 500% from 2 years ago, hows yr fiat from two years ago. Oh, its worth 50% less

[Anonymous No.49582100]

>>49582048
I work healthcare and they gave everyone 2.5x rate on overtime because they need people so bad. Its real. If yr in demand you can tell those fucks to pay up or youll quit right now

[Anonymous No.49582188]

>>49576758
>>49576540

this is good analysis

[Anonymous No.49582313]

>>49582100
Interesting. I'm seeing a lot of short staffed businesses around me but I had been putting that down to sick leave.

[Anonymous No.49582439]

>>49577937
>Muh retail traders at home in lockdown with 1.6k caused the pump
Opinion discarded. The next cycle will be a less extreme repeat of this one and you will cope and seethe afterwards that it will never happen again for real this time

[Anonymous No.49582552]

>>49582439
I never claimed anything like that and you need to improve your reading comprehension if that is what you got out of that post.

[Anonymous No.49582576]

>>49580396
Read the Euro countries he cites, NL has sub 50% debt/gdp for instance. Only fucked one in the list is Germany due to their producer price index but that all depends on geopol outcomes

[Anonymous No.49582614]

>>49578905
Fucking which of them

[Anonymous No.49582648]

>>49582614
NEAR

[Anonymous No.49582854]

>>49582552
>The factor of people sitting home with expendable income is going away
>too much time on retail's hand to properly get into it all.
There I copy pasted your own words you pseud.

[Anonymous No.49582902]

>>49582576
you have to be careful with those numbers they are lying with statistics
the dutch for example have relative low national debts, but their household and corporate debt is through the roof the have a massive real estate bubble thats been expanding for decades

so yes conventional economics would say Nl is in a good position, but does it really matter where the debt is located if rates rise, its all going to blow up anyways

[Anonymous No.49583025]

>>49582854
Why can't you have a good faith argument? I said a lot more than those two sentences anon. Anyway retail was responsible for about 13% of the price movement from 2020-2022, not an insignificant amount but clearly not the main cause, which I never claimed it was. It was the corona stimulus packages with no good ways to park capital for financial institutions except for real estate, stocks and crypto which caused the mooning to happen, which is also something I pointed out in my posts.

[Anonymous No.49583037]

>>49575152
The beginning of it. BtC will go 5k and eth to low 3 figs before the carnage stops

[Anonymous No.49583118]

>>49575176
>bitcoin is going to like $3k
Eth just broke below last bull runs ath. Not looking too good for btc. Very real chance it breaks below 20k and if so then yeah I think we could be going back to covid dump lows.

[Anonymous No.49583210]

>>49580154
>ountries like Japan
Japan is tugging its currency right now. They can't control it and their central bank might blow up soon.

[Anonymous No.49583268]

>>49583025
>I can calculate the exact percentage stimis had on BTC price
Lel
>I said a lot
Yes like how the last 2 bull runs that coincided with BTC halving we're total unrelated flukes you guys and it's over for real this time.

[Anonymous No.49583523]

>>49583210
Japan is in a precarious situation but they are doing better now in 2022 than they did in 2008. Japan has actually been trying to devalue their currency which it's currently succeeding at. Don't forget that Japan is an export based economy, cheap Yen means higher exports which is good for their economy.

Like I've already said this short burst of inflation for the EU, US and countries like Japan is actually good as it makes the economies attractive for exports while also stimulating domestic consumption. These places have had too low inflation for 15 years now and this has been long overdue.

[Anonymous No.49583576]

>>49583025
i at this point you are arguing against the halvings effect on btc and the wider crypto market valuation you havent been paying attention
but go ahead keep believing it was a one off scenario related to the coof

[Anonymous No.49583748]

>>49583576
I go in detail about the halvening effect and why the effect is less pronounced every halvening in my first post here: >>49576540

Never claimed the effect isn't real, just that the effect isn't constant and getting weaker every halvening as miner dominance drops and gives way to investor dominated prices.

[Anonymous No.49583850]

>the jew hates the crypto longer
2018 bobonuggerkikes were fuding bitcoin going down all the way to below $100 and crypto dying

[Anonymous No.49583943]

>>49576787
>the goal of the us is to stop china's rise
kek what planet you living in?

[Anonymous No.49583965]

>>49583748
i never responded to that post because the fatal flaw in its reasoning didn't realize it was the same id

now put your thinking cap on anon, if btc moonshots are dependent on game theory and flow of newly mined corns and critical on miners actions
then wouldn't a black swan event right at the worst possible timing in the cycle destroy THIS cycles performance
S2F failed last year because chinese miners were forced to dump at the worst possible time killing game theory first and then sentiment
drawing permanent conclusions from a year with multiple black swans is pretty excessive
but like i said before lets see in 2025 how things look

[Anonymous No.49584615]

>>49583965
The selling pressure of miners becomes a smaller % of overal market activity every halvening inherently due to the volume of BTC they get from mining going down which means trader activity becomes more dominant over time, invalidating the S2F model and weakening the effect of halvenings every halvening.

[Anonymous No.49584663]

>>49575621
kek

[Anonymous No.49584854]

>>49575213
I'll be DCA'ing the falling knife all the way to 0 if I have to. I'm sure it'll bounce back, whether in 2024 or 2050, I'm sure I'll break even eventually.

[Anonymous No.49585332]

>>49584615
there is a very big leap between miner pressure lessens with each cycle, undisputable
to your earlier statement of 60k per corn was the result of a perfect storm that will never be repeated again

your own words:
>The perfect storm that led to $60,000 BTC is not going to be replicated again
i think you will be quite disappointed in a few years if you invest based on that thesis

[Anonymous No.49585424]

>>49585332
>your own words:
>>The perfect storm that led to $60,000 BTC is not going to be replicated again
>i think you will be quite disappointed in a few years if you invest based on that thesis
perfect storm may or may not happen again even the next 10 years

what is known is that miners will be producing less and less bitcorn over time this is undisputed fact and hence halvenings contribute less to the perfect storm

[Anonymous No.49585542]

>>49576271
It scares me that we supposed to be in ATH right now

[Anonymous No.49585607]

>>49585424
that isnt in dispute anon, the person i am responding to, clearly stated he thinks this was it and it will not be so high ever again
and never again will they get away with another coof in living memory so that caveat is also gone from his initial remarks

[Anonymous No.49585751]

>>49585607
>this was it and it will not be so high ever again
well if he is a sickly 40 year old mutt for him this is true since he will probably die within the next 10 years due to heart attack or other effects of obesity

[Anonymous No.49586000]

>>49575152
Fags trying to wreck our favourite crypto.
It's because this is their month. Bu July-October, we will see bull market and UTK will pump with other popular crypto payment projects

[Anonymous No.49586058]

>>49575376
>the big brain contrarian play would actually be to long.


wise word FOX JEDi

[Anonymous No.49586956]

>>49581552
>personal limited gut feeling and anecdotes from anonymous posters on some imageboard
n1gga n1gga n1gaa n1gga n1gga
21 century, you better wake up

[Anonymous No.49587075]

>>49575152
More like death

[Anonymous No.49587107]

>>49584615
What are you buying, anon?

GRT and LINK for me

[Anonymous No.49587240]

The most retarded boomer colleague I have who FOMO'd ino BTC above 60k admitted to capitulating today. We are close to the bottom

[Anonymous No.49587709]

>>49575176
It's impossible. Do you not know how to read a chart? $3k is well outside the rainbow.