[ 3 / biz / cgl / ck / diy / fa / ic / jp / lit / sci / vr / vt ] [ index / top / reports ] [ become a patron ] [ status ]
2023-11: Warosu is now out of extended maintenance.

/biz/ - Business & Finance

View post   
File: 35 KB, 700x324, derivative_price.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
4016198 No.4016198 [Reply] [Original]

A small digression from all the usual shilling and fudding. Can /biz/ solve finmath problmes?

Lets start out with something very basic:

It is Q4 2018, you head a small crypto research team: "calm bitch confidential".
To the surprise of many, Lumen (XLM) is currently trading at $1.2.
According to insider sources, Stellar is bound to announce a permanent partnership with IBM, PayPal and major banks at the next planned event.
Forecast modelling shows you that XLM will reach ATH at $2 in case the new partnership status is confirmed at the next conference.
However, a sell off to $0.8 is expected in case rumours turn out to be bullshit.

Assuming perfect pricing according to future EV, what is the probability (p) of permanent partnership between Stellar, IBM and banks as implied by your model?

>> No.4016295

>probability
>real math
choose one anon kek what the fuck is this bullshit. do your whip and ney ney instead you little brainlet bitch

>> No.4016316

>>4016198
Yes, I do real math, modern Algebraic Geometry, you little bitch.

>> No.4016332

>>4016295
>probability
>Not match

Nigger detected

>> No.4016335

What a silly question brainlet.

I'm currently doing shit like this:

http://www.ehu.eus/aitor/irakas/fin/apuntes/pde.pdf

>> No.4016339

>>4016295
Now anon, don't be a faggot, I can hardly start with stochastic calculus when you haven't demonstrated any knowledge of the basics yet can I?

>> No.4016343

The IBM partnership is already inked and done, you fud spreading sack of shit.

>> No.4016344
File: 103 KB, 1080x1080, 14726405_1614419325534592_5822856887409836032_n.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
4016344

>>4016295
Word.

>> No.4016352

>>4016332
>implying the universe isn't deterministic
it's as if you don't want to understand the true order of things and want to rely on the past to explain the future

>> No.4016360

you can't model or forecast data about an arbitrary rumor's probability of being true.

garbage in, garbage out

>> No.4016371

>>4016335
>4016335
>calculus
>linear algebra
>differential equations
>matlab
kek babby tier shit

>> No.4016373

>>4016360
>Assuming perfect pricing
>Assuming

>> No.4016398

>>4016352
Doesn't matter if the universe is deterministic or not, you can always create probability models for any given situation

>> No.4016401

>>4016335
LMAO.
Here's something almost as easy (I'm tutoring)
https://stacks.math.columbia.edu/tag/02KH

>> No.4016428
File: 107 KB, 1280x720, 1508527615620.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
4016428

>>4016371
>>4016401
you don't have to be rude

>> No.4016440

So far, lots of math geniuses but no answer to a very simple math problem... hmmm

>> No.4016450
File: 94 KB, 1080x1080, 21980801_361674640935649_8431473912507793408_n.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
4016450

>>4016428
Sorry, I just love shit-posting.

>> No.4016467
File: 36 KB, 629x504, 1507414728334.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
4016467

>>4016198
>not throwing $10,000's on complete shitcoins that you don't even know what they do

>> No.4016491

>>4016352
>implying the universe IS deterministic
Someone doesn't know their quantum mechanics

>> No.4016522

>>4016352
> implying determinism, randomness and probability are exclusive
*ding**ding**ding* brainlet alert

>> No.4016586

>>4016198
Can't really find p w/o the actual EV. But assuming EV = 0

.8*p1 - .4p2 = 0
.8p1 = .4p2
2p1 = p2
P1 + P2 =1

P1 = .33
P2 = .66

>> No.4016675

p = 1/3

>> No.4016779

>>4016675
>>4016586
thats correct anons. You have demonstrated superior brain powers.
Also, since we assume perfect pricing:
2p + 0.8(1 - p) = 1.2

>> No.4017756
File: 100 KB, 600x800, 1504397783498.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
4017756

>>4016198