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/biz/ - Business & Finance


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File: 129 KB, 701x576, box.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
2951610 No.2951610 [Reply] [Original]

Are there any crypto paper trading platforms where I can practice margin trading? I want to learn and play with monopoly money for a while.
>Pic mostly unrelated.

>> No.2951618

>>2951610
what find of fucking stupid pic is that?

its literally a 50% chance
you either picked the first one from box a or box b, but its a 50% chance it was box a

>> No.2951621

Odds are 2/3.

And just do up an excel sheet yourself, much easier.

>> No.2951622

2/3

>> No.2951626

>>2951618
Idiot

>> No.2951628

>>2951610
1/3

>> No.2951633

>>2951626
>>2951622
>>2951621
t. dumbfucks

it doesn't say that he places the ball back into the box, so the ball is assumed to have been removed. there is only 1 ball remaining in that box. its either the silver one from box b or the gold one from box a.

50% if you say anything else you are literally a fucking imbecile

>> No.2951635

>>2951618
These are the people who buy shitcoins and call it "investing"

>> No.2951646

>>2951610
who cares about cucktocurrencies anymore, if you want to gamble go to a casino
>>2951618
the chances of a gold ball being in a box with another gold ball are 1/3

>> No.2951648

>>2951618
oh fug, 2/3 not 1/3 lmao

>> No.2951659
File: 122 KB, 800x959, Vitalik-Buterin-Agents.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
2951659

Didn't expect /biz/ to be so retarded

>> No.2951660

>>2951646
>>2951635
>>2951648

you guys are dumb as fuck, you can't just add your own rules and assume he puts the ball back

the picture does not say that the ball is returned to the box.
there is only 1 ball remaining in the box, it is either the silver ball from box b, or the gold ball from box a, but you are a fucking dunce if you think its anything other than a 50% chance.

>> No.2951662
File: 23 KB, 596x414, boxpuzzlepro.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
2951662

>>2951633
maybe this will make it clearer

>> No.2951670

>>2951621
>>2951622
>>2951628
>>2951626
>>2951648
>>2951646
are you all fucking retarded?
it says that you already have a gold ball. So box 3 is out of the game how can it be 2/3 or 1/3???

>> No.2951671
File: 12 KB, 436x439, NMRRRR.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
2951671

>>2951648
Golly you're a genius.
Have I got the coin for you.

>> No.2951673

>>2951618
>>2951633
These are the people who buy shitcoins, call it investing, and double down when the premine dump occurs.

>> No.2951674

>>2951610
p gold ball box = 2/3
p= 2 gold balls in a box = 1/3

multiply them together

>> No.2951686
File: 4 KB, 183x275, brainlet.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
2951686

>>2951662
kill me

>> No.2951688

>>2951674
but it says that you already have a gold ball

>> No.2951701

>>2951673
cos it is 50%, cunts just want to complicate shit

if you've already got gold, the ONLY actions you can get next is silver or gold, its not some complicated algorithm

>> No.2951711

>>2951610
practice with ten dollars u retard

>> No.2951713
File: 1.11 MB, 2760x1840, Mordechai-H-Honest-Caricature.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
2951713

Pro tip : If you're jew it's 100% chance to get a gold ball

>> No.2951719
File: 23 KB, 300x225, 74576457684578478.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
2951719

>>2951686

>> No.2951730

>>2951701
But we can make it complicated if we ant to.

Lets assume that....

>> No.2951747

wow, nobody answered my fucking question and most of you seem to have gotten the answer wrong

>> No.2951758
File: 57 KB, 559x334, 1424148915439.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
2951758

>simple question
>people who are wrong start calling others names
>start assuming the others made incorrect assumptions (putting balls back? who would do that)

This thread is pure /biz/

>> No.2951762

>>2951621
>And just do up an excel sheet yourself, much easier.
But I won't know when I'd be liquidated, etc.

>> No.2951768

>>2951701
Probabilities adjust based on conditions given. That's conditional probability, which is what this is.

The answer is 2/3.

If I pick a gold ball at random, the odds of that happening were 1/2 right? The boxes don't matter yet. I just picked a ball and it was gold, so the odds of that happening were 1/2. Now, of the gold balls there, 2/3 of them belong to box A and 1/3 belong to box B, correct? So the odds that the gold ball I picked belongs to box A is 2/3.

Because the question is asking us about the probability GIVEN that we already know the first ball is gold, you might think "well it could be from box A or box B, so 50/50." But the fact that we know the first one is gold and 2/3 of the gold balls are in box A should tell you that if I'm holding a gold ball, there's a greater chance it came from box A than from box B. So that knowledge, that condition that the first ball is gold, puts the odds in favor of it having come from box A.

Thus the probability is 2/3.

>> No.2951777

>>2951762
Just fucking trade with $5 or $10 or something, jesus. It's all the same since it's proportional.

>> No.2951784

1/3.
The odds of picking the box with two gold balls is 1/3.

How could it be 2/3? That doesn't make any sense.
1/2? Are you retarded?

>> No.2951786
File: 54 KB, 362x353, NUMBERAIREY.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
2951786

>>2951662
To be clear:
>You pick a box at random and take a random ball out
>It is a gold ball
>That third box with two silver balls? You know for sure it doesn't fucking matter anymore.
>The only remaining possibilities for which box you pulled that goddamn gold ball out of are the first two goddamn boxes

Either you pulled it out of Box A and there's a gold ball remaining (50% chance) or you pulled it out of Box B and there's a silver ball remaining (50% chance).

The probability you pulled it out of Box C is the same probability you'll be successful in life.

>> No.2951816

>>2951622
>>2951621
>>2951646

2/3 would only be possible if two of the three boxes were full of gold balls.

Could you please get me which coins you're invested in? I need to avoid them at all costs.

>> No.2951819

>>2951786
>>2951784
It's 2/3. Please see >>2951768

If I gave you 5 coins and said 4 were silver and 1 was gold and asked "what is the probability that the coin I gave you is silver?" you wouldn't say "50%. it's either silver or gold." You'd say "80%. 4/5 of them were silver."

Same thing here. A condition was given which skews the odds such that you are more likely to have chosen from the first box than the second box, and thus if you are forced to choose from the same box again, it is more likely to be the first than the second. There is a 2/3 chance.

Here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand%27s_box_paradox

Wikipedia article explains it too.

>> No.2951820

>>2951784
kek

>> No.2951827

>>2951819
you ruined the fun

>> No.2951828

>>2951816
Here's Wikipedia to explain it:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand%27s_box_paradox

It's 2/3. It makes sense. You're just not understanding the conditions involved.

>> No.2951836

>>2951610
friendly reminder 99% of crypto is a complete scam and you will lose all of your money if you continue to mess around with this trash

>> No.2951841

>>2951819
Huh.
Yep, I was wrong. It's 2/3.
Time to buy NMR.

>> No.2951845
File: 7 KB, 219x230, 1485913412074.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
2951845

>>2951784
>you pull out a gold ball
>"hmm, I might have picked a box with only silver balls inside"

this is how fucking stupid you are

>> No.2951847

>>2951836
friendly reminder that I made 500% on my money these past 3 months in crypto, took out my original investment, and have continued to trade for even more ever since. It's be pretty fucking hard to lose it all now.

>> No.2951852
File: 230 KB, 318x482, vitalik.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
2951852

>>2951836
tell us where he hurt you

>> No.2951853

>I can't tell if people are memeing around or this board is full of brainlets

>> No.2951867

Posts saying 2/3 are bait right?

>> No.2951870
File: 71 KB, 550x550, pizza.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
2951870

>>2951853
>>2951867

>> No.2951879

>>2951870
THIS IS INFURIATING WHO IS THIS CUNT "TEACHER"?

>> No.2951888

>>2951870
That's american, isn't it?

>> No.2951895
File: 49 KB, 785x757, 1491674460703.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
2951895

>>2951870
>seen this picture 500 times before
>just realized the most retarded part is the word "reasonableness"

>> No.2951896

The choice of first box is irrelevant. The question is regarding what happens next not what has already happened. 1/2.

>> No.2951899

>>2951870
Ok I giggled. I admit I was like "but 5/6 is greater than 4/6....what?" for a few seconds too.

>> No.2951903

>>2951747
Blockfolio app.

>> No.2951909

>>2951896
Right. However, the second choice, of what's going to happen, has a condition placed on it which skews the results in favor of box 1. See: >>2951819

>> No.2951918

>>2951899
This must be some kind of dividing line between people.
>Type A: "that's not possible"
>Type B: the pizza must simply be larger
Question clearly states that the child who ate the smaller proportion ate more pizza overall, and the only logical answer is that the pizza was larger
>hurhur actually we lied and he didn't eat more because it's not possible
American education, everybody

>> No.2951922

>>2951896
>The choice of first box is irrelevant. The question is regarding what happens next not what has already happened. 1/2.
...what already happened has affected the probability of what will happen... is this b8?

>> No.2951937

>>2951909
At the first stage there is an equal chance of picking any box. Once youve done that the probability restarts for any subsequent tests.

>> No.2951959

>>2951847
you'll end up losing it all cap this

take that money and invest it in general electric or something before you lose it playing with shitcoins

>> No.2951978

>>2951918
Well duh. It just took me a few seconds longer cause I'm tired.

>>2951937
>the probability restarts
The second choice has the condition of being the same box as the first. It's a conditional probability.

Again, given that I have 4 silver coins and 1 gold, and you choose a coin at random from me, there is an 80% you choose silver, despite there being only 2 possible choices, silver or gold. It's not 1/2. The probability is conditional.

>>2951959
I've been doing this for years you fucking dummy. Your losses are my gains.

>> No.2951980

>>2951937
But there was still a greater probability that you pulled the gold ball from the first box.

It's a bit of a mindfuck but once it clicks it's like, "whoa I'm retarded."

Check out the wiki article ybtV6baf linked.

>> No.2951999

>>2951978
>Well duh. It just took me a few seconds longer cause I'm tired.
I just mean in general, if that's the actual answer key's answer to this question, it's fucking retarded, lol

>> No.2952180

>>2951870

it was the famous 10,000 BTC pizza.

google for it, teacher!!

>> No.2952517
File: 447 KB, 1463x620, goldBalls.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
2952517

>>2951618
try again

>> No.2952538

>>2952517
Your answer is right but your picture is misleading.

>> No.2952552

>>2952517
If you rephrased the question as "Knowing that you have first picked a gold ball, what is the probability that that gold ball came from the box with 2 gold balls originally in it?" you would get the same answer but I bet a lot less people would be confused by it.

>> No.2952588

>>2952517

Is this some stupid meme, or are people actually retarded? if anyone ever says, the answer is anything but 50%, he needs to remove himself out of existence for the better of mankind.

>> No.2952637

>>2952588
what's 1/(1+1/2)?

>> No.2952678

>>2952637

2/3 , but have actually read, what needs to be counted? There is no choice after picking up the first ball. The question is, did you choose the box with 2 golden balls or the one with only 1 golden ball.

>> No.2952685

>>2952678
>The question is, did you choose the box with 2 golden balls or the one with only 1 golden ball
which one's more likely?
>inb4 equally likely

>> No.2952697

>>2952517
Bullshit.
Box with two silvers becomes irrellevant, you already know that one box has 2 gold and other has 1 gold 1 silver, but you are unable to see inside, therefore you have a 50/50 chance that its either box and therefore as a result of this you have 50/50 chance of getting another gold ball. The other explanation is jewd to make it seem like you have more chance than you actually do.

>> No.2952705

>>2952697
hahahaha

>> No.2952738

>>2952678
See >>2952552
I really want to know if my way of rephrasing it helps you or not.

>> No.2952754
File: 30 KB, 299x288, NMR.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
2952754

>>2952738
Helped me when I started thinking of it that way.

>> No.2952765

>>2951610
1/3

>> No.2952813
File: 1.21 MB, 480x287, 1496699083090.gif [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
2952813

>>2952697

>> No.2952821

>>2952705
Lets turn the question around, if you jad thr option of taking the other ball from this same box, or taking your next pick from the other box, which one would yoi choose ans why?

>> No.2952826

>>2952821
Mind my typos lol

>> No.2952834

>>2951674
You're fucking retarded bro.

You already have the gold ball. You don't need a 2/3 chance of picking the gold ball box, because you already chose the gold ball box.

>> No.2952838

>>2951610
>Pic mostly unrelated.

This thread is a perfect example of 4chan users who lose everything in meme coins.

>> No.2952847

>>2952821
>>2952826
I would choose the box from which I withdrew the gold ball because it is statistically more likely to contain a second gold ball.

>> No.2952874

>>2952552
It does make more sense that way if you think about it.

>> No.2952882

66.666% chance the next ball will be gold. The 50% chance is you either picked the all gold or silver & gold box. Question asks about the next ball. If he picked a silver ball, it would 3/5 chance next ball would be gold.

>> No.2952921

40%

Boxes don't matter

>> No.2952923

>>2952685

Fugg time to remove myself for the better of mankind.

>> No.2952931

>>2952921
the boxes do matter. conditional probability. one of the boxes has no gold.

>> No.2952939

if you picked up a gold ball from the first draw, it is either
1. the gold ball from the gold and silver ball box
2. one of the gold balls from the gold ball only box
3. the other gold ball from the gold ball only box

2 out of 3 of these options would mean the second draw would be a gold ball, hence 2/3

>> No.2952957

>>2952923
lol it's ok

>> No.2952967

>>2952847
Lets be real here, you have two boxes you cant see into, you pull out a gold ball, the other ball could be a gold or a silver, becuae there are 2 gold in one and 1 of each in the other. Statistically there is a 50% chance it could be either, there is a 0% chance it could be bitbean.

I guess it also comes down to what type of person you are, im a pessimist so i view it like this, optimists may somehow view it at 2/3

>> No.2952998

>>2951610
whaleclub you get 5000 monopoly money

>> No.2953002

>>2952967
>A man walks alone on an otherwise empty street
>A woman cries
>Three dogs fight over a bone
>Two anons on 4chan debate
>A woman cries
>A piece of paper flutters in the wind
>It is dark here
>A woman cries
>Your bitbeans sprout
>A woman cries
>1000 more baens
>A woman cries
>1000 more
>A woman cries

>> No.2953377

>>2952939
best explation, listed the outcome o every possible explination

>> No.2953473

>>2951621
good.
Seeing all of these replies makes me realize how far /biz has falled since end of 2014 when it was first created. Infested with poltars, r9ks and plebbitors

>> No.2953479

>>2952588
>Is this some stupid meme, or are people actually retarded?
Yeah they are, you're the living proof.

back to /pol untermensht

>> No.2953652

>>2952517
2/3 would be right if you can change boxes.

>> No.2953708
File: 473 KB, 1463x1218, goldBallsAns.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
2953708

>>2953652
Not really. It could be either box. Here, I updated it using the explanation from >>2952939 (by far the best explanation I have seen)

>> No.2953766

>>2952517
lel, saving this superb answer. Just a great thread altogether