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/biz/ - Business & Finance

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28820382 No.28820382 [Reply] [Original] [archived.moe]

>Good to be here Andy, thank you for having me. Sure sure, I think the wall street bets phenomenon is really injecting a number of key points into societies collective consciousness, and I think some of those points are just beginning to become understood now and others as they recur will only become understood as other cases prove them to be that way. I think the first and most dramatic realization that people are having, which is actually the realization that blockchains have been about since the beginning, is that they do not have control. People believe they have control over their financial assets, they believe they have control over their trading accounts, they believe they have control over their financial life and financial future and its not just a play thing of a larger economic system, which in many cases takes value from smaller actors, the average person, and funnels that value to larger, more sophisticated, more well-resourced, more well connected actors. And in the past, all of these types of things have been about high frequency trading, and some other esoteric problem.

>> No.28820430
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>But now, what I think wall street bets has done because it is a collection of average people, and not a collection of professional traders competing with other professional traders, but because average people have now reached such a large, prominent position in the market as a group through something like wallstreet bets and the coordination that can happen there and through the fact that TradeFi and FinTech and trading technology has finally reached such low cost, basically zero, almost zero costs, for participation by the average person, I think the average person has begun to participate in the market and that participation basically has a very simple story, and the story is when everything is going very well, they are participating in the market correctly, the market is able to meet their predictable expectations, and the more sophisticated participants in the market are able to essentially take their money most of the time.

>> No.28820500
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>And then when the situation in the market suddenly doesn’t benefit a select group of participants, the market systems miraculously doesn’t function, it miraculously doesn’t work properly for many many complicated reasons around fees and clearing systems and volatility metrics and 50 other things. But at the end of the day, the net result is the same as the net result of censorship of communication or censorship of social media or censorship of really anything. Its the ability of the average person to participate in a system that they were told was fair, and economically fair. I think this is the first very large realization. This is the first very large realization that wallstreet bets is creating. And I think you’ll see how these realizations then coincide around DeFi in a minute. I think the second large realization that hasn’t been done yet, that hasn’t happened yet, but which social media has kind of started, and which wall street bets has proved can move into the non-social but practical financial world is that if enough average people believe in something, it starts to occur in certain ways. So if enough people decide to buy Gamestop stock, something happens to it. If enough people decide to shift from one platform to another platform, then something significant happens in the world. If enough people decide that something isn’t important to them or they don’t support something, then the world changes.

>> No.28820584
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>And I think that that force is really a kind of new found force, due to the fact that everybody now has digital voice and wall street bets and Robinhood and Gamestop and this whole kind of mini saga here just shows that that also has an economic component. So it shows that social media doesn’t just have a dynamic where people have a voice and that’s all they have, but if that voice then leads to collective action though voting with your dollars, you then have a whole set of dynamics that, you know, traditionally people wouldn’t have been able to coordinate or wouldn’t have been able to do. I don’t actually know what that means for society, I think both of these realizations are very powerful but the first realization shows there is a serious structural issue with how the current system works and that that’s starting to be laid bare, and then the second realization shows that people have a choice and they can have a significant impact on how the system works because they have that choice, and they have a voice and they can collectively use that voice to chose other platforms, and that this choice can happen very very quickly, much faster than it could happen before and it could, it can change the way things work and it can start to purvey really the entire world, it can just start to purvey the media cycle, it can start to purvey the debt cycle, it can become involved in politics, its something that could happen much much faster than it could before. And the way that this relates to DeFi is that DeFi is the system that all of these people want. Its the system that doesn’t have the problems and the unfairness, and the manipulation that many of these people experienced during the 2008 financial crisis, and it doesn’t have the problems that they are experiencing now, and that DeFi systems is becoming more and more accessible.

>> No.28820931
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>So if you look at these two large, kind of realizations, from the wall street bets, robin hood, kind of GameStop mini saga, what you see is the problems of centralized finance have become laid bare to millions of people in the public media and that’s now starting to purvey into the political process, and whether those problems are with Robinhood specifically or some other part of a system, it fundamentally shows that the system is asymmetrically beneficial to certain parties, and it doesn’t even matter if the system is structured that way or if you have society pay for bailouts or whatever you have. At the end of the day, this kind of song and dance about how ‘the system is fine don’t worry about it’, but at the same time, society bares the burden of debt cycles, society bares the burden, or the average person bares the burden of financial systems working in a way that on a good day puts them at a disadvantage to the bigger players, but then on the one day they can actually get something out of it and be right, on that day they are also disadvantaged, I think that type of deal is a deal that that second idea about collective choice will begin to reject, and if Robinhood isn’t the case where people come to that realization, then there will absolutely be a second case, and a third case, and at a certain point, I don’t know where that threshold is but at a certain point and a certain case, everyone is gonna realize that blockchains, and smart contracts and oracles and their ability to make decentralized finance is the thing where this doesn’t happen.

>> No.28821064

> Oh and im announcing a delay to arbitrum and an expediting of my coming out. I'm a gay turkey twizler, a custard sponge of dorothy, a confirmed batch of cookie dough, a tarté flamggot. I hate link holders and i hate myself. I hate myself because im gay and i see a lot of myself in link holders, especially the gay part.

>> No.28821198


you will be a woman

>> No.28821580
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>It is the system where they can participate in a fair economic system, with full transparency, full control of your assets, and a complete assurance that the things that they are participating in aren’t stacked against them. And so I think that this has been happening for many years, you know the 2008 crisis is an example of this, the stuff with Wirecard is an example of this, Robinhood is just the most recent and Wallstreet bets and the dynamic around GameStop is the most recent. But it isn’t gonna stop, I think its only gonna accelerate and with each additional realization of the lack of control and the paper promises that they have with people being faulty, with each additional one of those kind of instances, eventually those add up, those have a cumulative effect where you know people can only see something happen so many times until they realize the truth and it becomes inevitable and self evident what the real story is and what real deal they are participating in is. So I don’t know the exact threshold, I don’t know how many Robinhoods or GameStops need to happen, but I think we are well past halfway were the cumulative kind of risk and the cumulative understanding of this arrives at a place where decentralized finance is the thing that people want, they just don’t know that they want it yet.

>> No.28821756

Thanks transcriber anon. I appreciate you I don't ever watch or listen to these things I always read

>> No.28821861

> another thing people don't know if they want yet is cock. And i can say the definitive truth is YES. Emphatically yes. I was sceptical myself until that night i was rolling hard at Web3 and Thomas took me into the disabled toilet, i took his whole truth that night. He justified true belief'd all over my face as i revealed my practiced ahaego for the first time.

>> No.28822108
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>I think they way this all happened is actually not even necessarily on the basis of trading, that might be part of it and they might be trading certain assets of certain kind. I think the way its actually gonna happen is through yield and transparency and control of ones assets. So I think what is gonna happen is inflation will increase, the yields of the global financial system will stay low and stagnant which means people will essentially be experiencing a negative return, the returns of DeFi will continue to remain in the three, four, five, seven, eight percent range as more assets flow into DeFi and crypto asset format, and at the same time each additional flash point of a Robinhood or a Wallstreet bets getting shut down through whatever, whatever reason, eventually the reason won’t matter it’ll just be part of mosaic of reasons, that all have the simple message of, ‘this is a bad deal, for you as a user’. And the reality is, that the transparency of blockchains and therefore DeFi, as well as the control that people have over their assets in those systems, is going to be more and more attractive with each of those flashpoints. So I actually think there’s two real cases for it. One is the ability to get yield, and that is the really strong economic case for it. And if you go to a bank account, or you somewhere and you get the low one percent or something like that, and then you can go take your dollars and put them in a stable coin and put them into DeFi, and you can get three percent or four percent. People don’t know where their savings account gives them a return from. They don’t know if the bank does commercial loans, or residential loans. They don’t know the risk rating of their bank, they don’t know the solvency of their bank, they don’t know, you know, how much assets are under management by the bank, they don’t know a lot of these things.

>> No.28822376


>> No.28822483
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>i see a lot of myself in link holders, especially the gay part

>> No.28822651
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>And so eventually what I think will happen is people will just provide an interface, or maybe even the very same banks, will provide an interface that flows user value into DeFi as the superior source of yield. And in this way, DeFi will simply become the way that you get yield because its the superior source of yield and that is what the global financial system is very good at seeking out, its good at seeking out yield. Now that is the economic argument for why DeFi is better than CeFi, and right now, you have a hundred bucks, you can go get five percent from the DeFi ecosystem whereas your bank will give you less than one percent, and in many cases less than .1%. And that’s just a cold hard fact, that enough of the financial system doesn’t know yet and once they do they will build interface upon interface to flow value into DeFi.

>> No.28823190
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>The second one is more of a structural issue and a concern about counterparty risk. After you have had the water or electricity or something shut off to you enough times, you start to think about moving, you start to think about moving somewhere else. You start to thinking about a different way to get more electricity. Once you experience something enough times, once you can’t trade at a critical moment, once one of the institutions you thought you had money in becomes insolvent, once people experience enough flash points where they don’t have control over their assets, and they don’t have an ability really understand and manage the risk around their assets. Enough of those flashpoint will make people very receptive to the transparency and private key based control of a blockchain, which is what a DeFi application runs on. And this is why its actually complicated for people because we continue to explain a lot of this through the plumbing and the piping and all the systems underlying it, like if you tried to talk to somebody, if somebody asked you ‘what is the internet’, and you would say its a collection of protocols run by multiple servers in a client-server model to deliver various types of data. You know even today with the internet as pervasive as it is, they’d be like ‘wow, that’s confusing’. But if you told them, you know, ‘you can order a pizza on your phone and it’ll get to your house faster and be cheaper’, they’re like ‘wow, that’s great, I want to do that’.

>> No.28823839
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>Thats the new realization that is gonna happen with financial products and really all contracts, including insurance and everything else, but if we just focus on DeFi, I think enough cases where people this problem of not having the control over their ability to interact with markets and not having transparency, like for example with Wirecard. Wirecard was a completely separate issue where people thought they were solvent but they were insolvent, and that caused massive problems for a lot of people. So there’s these two problems right, there’s insolvency risk and counterparty risk because of a lack of control, and then there’s sorry, a lack of transparency, and then there’s a actually a whole other problem of having a lack of control over the system that you’re using and that system being able to be turned against you in at a moments notice if its convenient for somebody else but not you. And so the way that I think decentralized finance is better, is you know, foundationally in a hyper inflation or high inflation environment like the one we are rapidly going towards, people become very sensitive to maintaining their wealth, if not gaining returns, and everybody becomes sensitive to it, and that creates an extensive and sharper need for yield, and DeFi will be the place where that yield will be found, that’s the base economic case its just a question of ‘do you want to earn half a percent or five percent’ when inflation is eroding away wealth.

>> No.28824503
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>And the answer is that everybody wants to at least maintain their wealth, so the system that they can do that will become unbelievably popular. Then all the flash points will slowly get more and more users into DeFi, but eventually there will be a tipping point where everybody just says, ’No, I don’t want to use your TradeFi, FinTech, centralized system because I just keep seeing people, you know, have essentially their control and wealth lost and eroded through a system like that. Can you give me a cryptographic guarantee instead of a paper one. Can your system guarantee me something on a blockchain to make sure I actually have control over the assets. Can you guarantee me that you’re solvent though the transparency of a blockchain?’ And if the answer is no, that collective force in peoples minds will eventually pass a tipping point where everyone just now starts to say, just like they started to say with the internet, ‘send me an email’. Now they’ll say ‘no can’t do it, can’t do that transaction this way, have to have it reach this higher plane of trust and transparency because its obvious that that’s what I should do as a matter of using a product like this’.

>> No.28825097
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>I think the simpler way to understand what decentralized finance is about from a technical point of view is to think about what the underlying infrastructure is. So I think you should really view blockchains as an equivalent to a database, that’s hyper transparent, hyper reliable and basically guaranteeing you that its going to do what its supposed to do in all scenarios. Then you have smart contracts, which are pretty much application code, people should just view smart contracts as code, application code that, in the case of smart contracts, once again, by storing certain data in a database like a token and moving it around or some other piece of information is able to create conditions, is able to create logic, and basically application code that also has these tamperproof, hyper reliable, hyper transparent properties which make it unique. And the final piece of the puzzle, much like it was for the web world, is essentially APIs and the connectivity of systems, both between each other and to the external worlds information.

>> No.28825813
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>Oracles, which is what Chainlink is, oracles and oracle mechanisms, are essentially highly reliable, highly transparent, highly provable APIs. They’re basically mechanisms that take the worlds APIs, take the worlds data, take the worlds information, and provide that information into a smart contract that’s running on a blockchain or storing data on a blockchain, in a way that meets that same high standard. And the way to think about this, if you’re making a system that is supposed to be hyper reliable, its only as good as the weakest part of the system because when someone tries to make a system unreliable, they don’t attack the strongest part, they attack the weakest part. So if you look at what a DeFi product is, a decentralized financial product, whether its insurance or something with trading or something with derivatives or something with lending or whatever it is, all of those products fundamentally need external data. If they don’t have external data, if they don’t know what the market price of an asset is they can’t settle, they don’t know what interest to pay. If they don’t know various market events, you really can’t create a financial product without knowing those things because that is what the financial product is based on and really representing in a consumable form, in the form of a financial product.

>> No.28826480
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>What chainlink does, is it essentially seeks to, and in many cases and many ways has already solved, the problem of hyper reliable connectivity with proof, with external proof, so that the database where the transactions that are related to a DeFi product are hyper reliable because they’re in a blockchain, the application code of a DeFi product is hyper reliable because its in a smart contract, and all the events and all the things triggering that application code is hyper reliable because it comes from an oracle network like Chainlink. And without the hyper reliability of all three parts of an application like this, you don’t have decentralized finance, because you need every part of the application to be decentralized in order for it to be Decentralized Finance, right. So this is, I think the large innovation that’s been happening over the past, you know, 36, 48 months. We’ve seen that since we have went live on main net and released probably the largest amount of data, of off chain market data into blockchains in history, we’ve seen a meteoric rise of a number of our biggest users because, and they credit us with this, because we provide the data that allows their markets to function, and without which those markets couldn’t function and couldn’t be secured to the tune of billions of dollars. Which in many cases, certain individual oracle networks, Chainlink oracle networks individually secure billions of dollars, and collectively well past ten billion dollars, and at the rate DeFi is growing, going far past that relatively quickly.

>> No.28827285
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>The way to view this is that, you know, if you tried to build Uber in the Web 2.0 world, and you didn’t have the Google GPS API to show you where a user was, you didn’t have Twillio to send a text message to the user, and you didn’t have Stripe to pay the driver, you wouldn’t have really built Uber. You would have built the Uber core code and then you would have started building these three other key services and you would have probably stopped halfway though building one and that would be the end of your venture, because all of the services that are powering the web applications that we use on a daily basis are extremely complex. But they’re packaged in a consumable and secure way for developers to plug them into their application, right, a lot of the applications people use in the web world are basically a number of other services, providing them data, providing them the ability to do a payment, providing them the ability to send a message, and this is how web engineers in the web world is built, so rapidly and at such an iterative pace and at such a high quality of application. Now finally the blockchain ecosystem, with the appearance of oracles, as the services or representation of services on chain that provide all of these external data sources and all these services in the real world to smart contracts, through the appearance of all of that, you basically have 2 to 5 person teams that can build world class financial products without having to build the infrastructure to do that.

>> No.28827829
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>That wasn’t the case two years ago. Two years ago it was unbelievably difficult to build a DeFi smart contract that was connected securely to a piece of data. And the few people that did it ended up building some kind of decentralized oracle system that in some cases has already failed and in other cases has large flaws that present serious risks to the value that they secure. And I think its through the systematic provision of more and more data, more and more services, that we are able to provide an ecosystem of building blocks that people combine into high value, highly important decentralized finance applications.

>> No.28828416
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>I think that there’s basically two cases for how this evolves. Theres a fast case and there’s a slow case. The slow case for DeFi is actually what we’re experiencing now, as unbelievable as that sounds going from something like 20 billion to past 40 billion this month probably, basically more than doubling in something like six weeks, is the slow case and it is the slow case because first of all there is over 1.4 trillion dollars in crypto currency value that is still not in DeFi. There is only 2.5, 2.6 percent of the crypto value that could be in DeFi within DeFi, so that means there is a much much further, further way to go. The slow case is really defined by the continual kind of slow failures and flash points of wallstreet bets, robin hood, gamestop, these types of things. Like this saga of people not being able to do what they thought they could do in an existing system will continue to mint greater and greater amounts of people that flow into the blockchain and the DeFi ecosystems as users that are willing to take the friction of using DeFi in hand, and overcome it in order to get the better yields and get the guarantees they are so sorely missing in the traditional financial system.

>> No.28829149
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>I think this group, in the slow case, will slowly be accelerated through better and better user interfaces. There are a lot of different wallets, there’s a lot of different exchange applications, there’s a lot of different sites that want to sell people crypto currencies, there’s a large group of people working on that problem of on-ramping people, and I think eventually someone will figure out a way to just make it unbelievably seamless for people to interact with DeFi, such that the value flowing into blockchains will not be about getting a token that someone thinks will increase in value, but it will actually be about turning your assets into a token in order for you to interact with DeFi. So I think the real power of blockchains is not as a tokenization platform, even though that is very useful, its not as a tokenization platform that allows the creation of tokens that may or may not go up in value, it is as a new kind of system of contracts for all kinds of financial products that have better yield, better transparency and lower counterparty risk. And I think the interface, or the people making the interface that figure out how to simply say to users, ‘look you can deposit your money in your bank and you can earn less than one percent, have tons of solvency risk and not really have very much control over your assets. Or you can click, you can take door 2, and you can have five percent, a lot of transparency and relatively low counterparty risk. The people that can just make that value proposition apparent and clear and easily consumable to the average user will funnel a huge amount of value into DeFi as its own financial layer.

>> No.28829977
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>And that is the slow case because there are all these kind of flash points of the traditional system not meeting peoples expectations, and the ability of DeFi to get better onramps, so that’s why that is the slow case. The fast case is basically some kind of correction or some kind of resolution of the debt cycle, that is, for lack of a better word, jarring. That is just a kind of screeching halt in peoples understandings and expectations of how the markets work, like 2008. And this will probably happen in one of two ways. Either there will be a huge market correction going back to fundamentals which will lead to a huge amount of solvency issues, that will lead people to say ‘ ahh, I don’t know what my risk is’, and lead them to seek places where they do know what their risk is, which blockchains are inherently great at doing. Blockchains force transparency into the development of an application and you can go an look at various protocols right now and see how many assets they have under management, what their exposure is, on a minute by minute basis, see the changes in that exposure, in some protocols you can observe why those changes were made through a voting process and the dialogue around that voting process , which is a huge huge shift from amount of information and clarity that people can get through the traditional financial system.

>> No.28830017

youre the best anon
2021 biz doesnt deserve you

>> No.28830157

Explain pic please.

>> No.28830742
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>So the fast case is quite simply a rapid succession of failures in the traditional financial system, creating a fear of counterparty risk and a newfound cynicism about the solvency about traditional financial institutions and systems that rapidly lead, I would even say a majority of people of all people, to seek alternatives. And in that case, because the need will have become so pronounced, even if there is still some friction in the DeFi, in order to escape the counterparty risk and the repeated lack of control that people have over their assets, there will still be a massive global migration towards the DeFi and blockchain systems that provide this. And the precursor of all of this and the proof of all this, is if you look at certain places that have systemic financial issues, or have had them in the past like Greece of Lebanon and other places, what you see when the ATMs in those countries get locked up, and there is a limit on withdrawals from an ATM from any one account, whether its an individual account or a business account, so you literally have a business and all you could get was 66 euros, which is kind of a mind boggling idea.

>> No.28831041

classic meme

>> No.28831103

Bless you & Praise Sergey

>> No.28831400

BLESSED BY BASED TRANSCRIPT ANON ONCE AGAIN. Thanks based transcript anon. You save me so much time. Usually listen to all these interviews with Sergey. This is much better

>> No.28831444
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>But you know two things happen in these geographies where these types of unfortunate systemic risks come to bear. The wallet registration numbers from IPs in those geographies go up by 300, 400%. But the wallet registration numbers in the surrounding geographies that have not yet had their ATMs locked up, but are worried about having a similar situation because many of them are in a similar situation with solvency. Those geographies, like the neighboring countries around Greece and other places, start to see wallet registration go up 600, 700, 1000%. And you can look all of this up from when the Greek ATMs got locked up and a bunch of other things got locked up and Lebanon, Venezuela and a whole bunch of places. You know I think there is only two ways that gets resolved , either there’s a market correction and solvency becomes and issue or people try to print their way out of it and that creates a certain amount of inflation. In both cases, in both variants of the fast case, you arrive at a place where people seek alternatives and they will seek them very rapidly. And if you just think it though and you sit down and you ask yourself, ‘well, what would happen if there was a serious crisis of confidence in certain financial products, and certain parts of the financial system’, what is the alternative to that? where would users go if that happened. Immediate, obvious and you know, completely singular answer you will find is blockchain based smart contracts in decentralized financial applications.

>> No.28831891
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>And so you know I don’t really hope for the fast case because the fast case is gonna mean another painful restructuring of wealth and maybe socialization of certain costs, and all kinds of other things probably to do with inflation, but in the fast case one of the few things that can come out it kind of how the Bitcoin white paper is known to be birthed out of the 2008 financial crisis, as something that was necessary, and so I think the next crisis, the next cyclical crisis that we’re quite actually a little bit overdue for, so I think that its probably relatively imminent, is going to have that one silver lining I think. That its going to force the worlds towards blockchains and smart contracts and DeFi. So ya, I think those are the two cases. I think the value here is so clear that people will adopt it slowly and more people will enable them to adopt it slowly, and then I think the unfortunate nature of how markets work and how the debt cycle works and how a number of other risks kind of get compounded in the global financial system will lead to a correction of some kind, and that will possibly on top of already a slow case that’s already happening, create a massive rush of a fast case, which really is quite clear to me as something that has already been proven by the activity you see in countries that have had problems like this.

>> No.28832504
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I appreciate YOU
you are the best, THANK YOU. biz gave me everything i have so i must give back. >>28830157
wish i could explain it but its just an image that has been saved
bless you fren
checked and i am so glad this benefits you and others. Sergey talks at approximately 1000 words per minute so i get a great benefit of reading his speeches.

>> No.28832599


>> No.28832634
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previous threads:

>> No.28832980
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>if enough average people believe in something, it starts to occur in certain ways.

>> No.28833734
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>> No.28835186

why the fuck is biz sleeping on this

>> No.28835229


>> No.28835269


>> No.28835970

when there's a lot of positive feedback on/biz/ surrounding a token, that's not a good look. it typically means that the pnd groups are either orchestrating a dump or link's popularity is fizzing out.

>> No.28836122

wen staking? wen deco? wen ocr? wen mixcles? wen arbitrum? wen tsigs?

>> No.28836183
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thank you transcript autist, i was about to listen to it but prefer to read
your work is noticed and appreciated

>> No.28836322

duct tape for toilet paper really cuts down on the dingle berries.

>> No.28836846
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>> No.28836913
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thank you for everything you do

>> No.28837216

>Lagarde was previously convicted of a financial crime in 2016 (for when she was France’s Finance minister) while serving as the managing director at the IMF. However, like all good politicians/bureaucrats, she escaped punishment and kept her job.
it's funny, my country got blacklisted because the FATF was worried about 'money laundering' meanwhile the total money laundering from all blacklisted countries combined is about 2% and the vast majority of money laundering happens in the EU and america yet very few EU states are blacklisted and they wouldn't dare blacklist america
I can't wait for DeFi to take over so these crooks have no control over financial systems and people's livelihoods

>> No.28837322
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>> No.28837387

honestly that was the most based part of it all
calling out a crook by name, and he's just a growth lead at kraken. fuck man, the challengers are really here now
tie this into satoshi's anonymity and it boggles the mind
42, read the thread if you haven't ;)

>> No.28837608


>> No.28837705

This man is a genius.

>> No.28837933
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>Lagarde was previously convicted of a financial crime in 2016 (for when she was France’s Finance minister) while serving as the managing director at the IMF. However, like all good politicians/bureaucrats, she escaped punishment and kept her job.
don't forget the IMF paid Ecuador a $4.2 billion dollar bribe to extradite Assange

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