https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/bcreg20210212a.htmhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/files/bcreg20210212a1.pdfhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-11/bitcoin-holds-gains-from-tesla-as-mastercard-twitter-weigh-inhttps://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/11/bny-mellon-to-offer-bitcoin-services-a-validation-of-crypto-from-a-key-bank-in-the-financial-system.htmlWhat's going on /biz/bros, when does a hypothetical become reality?
>>28588191I have to sage because none of you faggots are replying.
>>28588955I ain't reading all that shit. Give me the basic gestalt.
>>28588191fuck you man some fucker stole 13k in ETH and the markets are dumping we're a little busy
>>28589030idk about you but im pretty comfy>>28589013the fed is preparing for when the money machine breaks
>>28588191>hypothetical scenariosoh shit anon. This gives me flashbacks to Bill Gate's hypothetical global virus simulation convention. oh fuck
>>28588191how the fuck do you find this shit?
>>28589106This is why I posted this shit and saged, everyone should see it, yet no one is talking about it.>>28589154I don't follow retards, and I do the research.
Bump before I read
>>28588191well OP, consider the following>spanish flu 1918-1920>roaring 20's>great depression 1929-1934present>covid 2020-2021>roaring 20's>2nd great depression? maybe the gov is spooked this might happen again and are preparing for it now
Thanks for sharing anon, solid information from REAL sources for once.>Severely adverse>Roughly 36m unemployed Americans Shit.
>>28589466The parallels don't end there.>Rampant degeneracy with trannies and gays>New methods of warfare potentially disrupting existing norms (machine guns and trenches vs cyberwarfare)>Inflation at all time high>Populist candidates picking up steam and being suppressed after failed "coup" attempt (Reichstag fire, Capitol storming)Shit is fucked
>>28589466the fed =/= government
>>28589649why do they have a .gov domain then?
>>28589946because they are 'regulated' by the government
>>28589946they own the government
>>28589649>Created by the Government's order>Created to fulfill orders from the GovernmentSure
>>28590102it was created due to private interest you absolute dunce
>>28590102>created as an agreementthe US gov did not make the fed. just agreed to sell out the world to it in 1913
>>28588191First link is intriguing, I grant you that. Is this a regular occurrence, or is the Fed talking about this unprompted and out of the blue?
>>28590412lemme spoon feed you some more since i'm such a nice guy https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bank-stress-test.asp
>>28590505>Critics claim that stress tests are often overly demanding. By requiring banks to be able to withstand once-in-a-century financial disruptions, regulators force them to retain too much capital.>The timing of stress testing can sometimes be difficult to predict, which makes banks wary of extending credit during normal fluctuations in business. On the other hand, disclosing too much information could let banks artificially boost reserves in time for tests.Doesn't the test being out mean that now these banks and the rest will need to stop whatever the shit they were doing (including buying bitcoin) and hold "money"?
>>28590505what's their to worry about if stress tests are done on a regular basis? isn't it just business as usual?
>>28591305After looking at the PDF, it seems that they're anticipating some very bad outcomes. I think the basic takeaway is that they're saying if things go south this year, they go south in a big way.
>>28589083im a brainlet, what happens when money machine breaks?is crypto tied to stonks (as seen in march) or will crypto/defi (math based guaranteed returns + trustlessness) be a viable alternative?
>>28591598i mean it just makes it sound less serious than it already is, then what happens anon, government prepares bailout plans? banks sell their houses and cause a housing crash? i dont see the scenario here where they would "buy bitcoin"
Just reading now, severely adverse scenario seems plausible.>The 2021 global market shock component for the severely adverse scenario is characterized by a sharp curtailment in global economic activity as financial conditions tighten. In particular, with ratings agencies downgrading large swaths of outstanding debt, corporate bond spreads widen sharply as ratingssensitive investors sell assets. The effect on investment-grade debt is somewhat mitigated by safe-haven flows, but non-investment-grade debt experiences high default rates and record low recovery rates. Price declines in the leveraged loan market are exacerbated by selling from open-end mutual funds and exchange-traded funds.>With fiscal conditions that are already stretched, U.S. state and local governments face additional stress. Revenue declines, combined with significant spending increases, lead to a widening in municipal bond spreads and increased risk of defaults. Mutual funds holding municipal debt face redemptions and outflows exceeding historical experience. >Commercial real estate prices—particularly for the retail and hospitality sectors—fall sharply in this scenario. Rapid selling of CMBS by nonbank commercial real estate lenders to meet margin calls puts considerable downward pressure on CMBS prices. Private-equity asset values experience sizable declines as leveraged firms face lower earnings and a weak economic outlook.
>Short-term Treasury rates decrease only slightly given the current low level of short-term interest rates. Longer-term Treasury yields fall modestly, consistent with lower expected short-term rates and flight-to-safety considerations. Short-term U.S. inter-bank lending rates rise sharply, reflecting a pullback in overnight lending. At the same time, longer-term swap rates fall in line with the decreases in long-term Treasury yields. >Flight-to-safety considerations result in U.S. public equity price declines that are relatively mild compared to other developed markets, and cause the U.S. dollar to appreciate somewhat against the currencies of most developed economies. The yen appreciates against the U.S. dollar as investors unwind positions. Safe-haven considerations cause precious metal prices to increase, while prices for non-precious metals and oil decline, as a result of the broader economic weakness.I believe the recent research indicating serious interest and consideration into DeFi may also be of some relevance in this case.https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/2021/02/05/decentralized-finance-on-blockchain-and-smart-contract-based-financial-markets
>>28588191Tell me like I'm a retard. Is it a bad time to get a mortgage for a rental property? Will the bank raise the interest rate I pay?
>>28591662>government prepares bailout plansProbably. There will be handpicked winners and losers. Everyone will most likely also start selling off their assets in search of liquidity. >>28592319Even asking this question should give you a clear answer.
>>28592319its fine if you have a fixed rate mortgage on a house in a historically strong municipal area. and if you have income to cover payments, assuming $0 rental incomeIn the US, SoCal, texas triangle, greater NYC, greater CHI, greater ATL, some parts of FL look safe
This is my final bump for awhile. I will be thoroughly disappointed with /biz/ it it dies while I'm away.
ill bump it for you fren
>>28594090Don't worry about it fren, this is just like when the repo operations started in sep 2019, the first thread on the subject was basically ignored. biz moves too fast these days with all the spammers and newfags due to the bull market. Hopefully this thread lasts long enough for some more thoughtful anons to weigh in. Also leaving the thread for a while but will definitely read the rest later.
last bamp forreals this time
>>28594892im a huge brainlet to these sort of stuff but i've always had the sneaking suspicion that all this funny money thing was going to bust one daywas covid just a cover up for the eventual economic downturn? idkalso could you elaborate more about this repo thing? thanks fren
bump for interest
>>28595440leaving rn sorry, check archive mid september 2019 search repo, lots of good threads back then, there's also a classic biz crack rock nigganalogy if someone's got
>>28595538cheers anon will take a look.
bump, less indians and more interesting thread please
>>28589608>actually thinking that the Capitol Hill 'storming' was anything more than a LARP day out for Trump supporters
The transition to clown world has been progressing for a while now. Memes becoming a reality is part and parcel with that. I don't care. The world is a circus, we will be the ringleaders.
>>28588191>>28595440fellow brainlet here, isn't it more a matter of when the next recession will start than if it will start? I'm also worried about being in a bubble right now, but I don't see any strong indicators in the OP that the recession will actually take place this year. I believe another factor would be necessary to trigger the recession, since we seem to have made it through the pandemic just fine.
OK I'll bump this just once but /biz/ is way too fast for shit like this now.
bumping because reading about the roaring 20's in comparison today has been pretty mind blowing
>>28596207fed has gone full out brrr to offset covid and pandemic, i don't think this will go on forever. either there is a deflationary crash or we enter a hyperinflationary scenario.
Don't they do this for every year?
have another bump because brainlet
Isn't bad shit for the feds a good thing for crypto?
>>28588191where the fuck is the monetary policy report for 2021?and where the fuck is the monetary policy report for july 2020? what the fuck is going on over at the fed?
Come to /pmg and at least 20% of your portfolio to buy boomer rocks. Silver for accelerationism or gold for gay safety.
fuck gay repetitive ass threads this is actually captivating, bumpy