/biz/ - Business & Finance

[Anonymous No.27116072]

How is it possible that trading is virtually impossible to comprehend? Logically you would think trading has a 50/50 chance of being in your favour, but how is it that you have a 90% chance of getting rekt? Sometimes I use the long/short indicators on trading view, and what would you know, the hypothetical trade goes sour 90% of the time. How is this even possible?

[Anonymous No.27116265]

>>27116072
There’s a million ways to hit a target, but only one way to hit the bullseye anon

[Anonymous No.27116407]

>>27116265
Do you have any useful trading strategies to share? Would love to paper trade and figure out how to widen that gap of win/loss ratios

[Anonymous No.27116471]

>>27116407
I’m a fucking retard waxing poetic man sorry

[Anonymous No.27116491]

>>27116407
Close the gap **

[Anonymous No.27116605]

>>27116471
I feel you, my fellow retard.

[Anonymous No.27117140]

It's probably because you buy Tik Tok stocks/crypto

[Anonymous No.27117311]

>>27117140
I tried backtesting a few strategies, like divergence and breakouts for example. It's like doing the direct opposite of what TA tells you would net you better results

[Anonymous No.27117332]

>>27116072
trading is like bideo game, the more time you spend on it the better you get and more intuitive the game becomes

[Anonymous No.27117391]

>>27116072
>Logically you would think trading has a 50/50 chance of being in your favour, but how is it that you have a 90% chance of getting rekt?
So follow the logic. Buy 10 random stocks at the start of the day and sell them at the end. Eventually you're guaranteed to make money.

[Anonymous No.27117447]

buy high
sell low

[Anonymous No.27118544]

>>27117332
I hope so. I know there's a way to gitdug at trading, but hopefully I can hurdle over the expensive lessons a lot of people pay before they get there

[Anonymous No.27118616]

>>27118544
gitgud*

[Anonymous No.27118669]

>>27116072
9 out of 10 retards lose money, 1 out of 10 takes the money from the other 9

[Anonymous No.27119035]

more money you have the more money you make

[Anonymous No.27119254]

>>27116072
yo, wanna know how we do it?

simple, its math, just short and long at the same time, you can only lose 100% on the long, but lose infinite on the short, EZ.

[Anonymous No.27119322]

>>27116072
Just follow these basic concepts and you will unironically never lose money unless black swan, or shortcomings on your part (needing liquidity or money to save your brother from dying in an hospital) or issues with the company/dev team of the asset you invested in:
>time in the market > timing the market
>BUY LOW; SELL HIGH
>ZOOM OUT
>buy gradually when it's red; sell gradually when it's green, never buy all at once unless you know a huge pump is coming - the reverse applies for sells
>never focus on TA alone or FA alone. Mix both when looking at a chart
>understand that there is no real science behind it, the market is irrational in nature

[Silver Shepherd No.27119528]

I'm an absolute idiot, but I do know one thing. Markets/stocks/crypto is all in patterns and is cyclical. Look at the graphs. For every boom, there is a bust, and vice versa. See how a stock has performed weekly, monthly, and yearly. Do random things happen that make it moonshoot/crash? Yes, but these are statistically uncommon.

[Anonymous No.27119573]

>>27119322
Checked. Thank you king. Also pirating philakone's program, I heard it's pretty good for scalping strategies

[Anonymous No.27120108]

Ironclad rules:
>Always.... Always.... A L W A Y S obey your fucking stop loss. If you try to have the market bail you out, you'll eventually get fucked hard.
>if you get stopped out and the market goes where you wanted it to go, don't get mad, just wait for the next opportunity. This shit inevitably happens
>have a trading system and obey every single rule of it - unless you've been trading for years, intuitive trading likely won't work. Be mechanical as fuck for at least your first year.

You should be profitable if you do the above. It honestly all just boils down to being loyal to your stop loss, because protecting your money comes first

Also wish /biz/ talked more about trading. Its unironically how to make it

[Anonymous No.27120281]

>>27119528
Yep. Each individual trade is unique, but trades over time form patterns

[Anonymous No.27120609]

>>27120108
It depends. Sometime you'd better just hold and forget

[Anonymous No.27120771]

>>27116407
Sure.
Learn about gamma and delta ratios in options trading.
Learn about why people buy the calls sold years out. Maybe that might be a good idea.
Then you can close on those positions.

Options trading is good.
And yes, there are a lot of bad choices you can make, only a few good ones.

[Anonymous No.27120862]

>>27120609
You can just hold your way to 70% of your portfolio getting nuked, or get liquidated way faster than that if you're on margin. You're better off just cutting the loss and making it back with solid trades

[Anonymous No.27120919]

>>27116072
>How is it possible that trading is virtually impossible to comprehend?
Market behavior isn't rational behavior

[Anonymous No.27121022]

>>27120108
What is a good place to talk about trading?

[Anonymous No.27121090]

>>27118616
obv bad

[Anonymous No.27121100]

>>27116072
>using indicators
Zoom the fuck out and play macro. Low time frame is for the birds
If you play macro cycles on fundamentally sound assets it's hard to lose money. Patience is required.

[Anonymous No.27121198]

You are probably trading on too short of a timescale. Zoom out.

[Anonymous No.27121274]

>>27116072
>buy company that is profiting and expanding
>if it goes down, buy more
>if it goes up, great
>you can't predict the future

how fucking hard is it for you fucktards comprehend

[Anonymous No.27121292]

>>27116072
>the hypothetical trade goes sour 90% of the time. How is this even possible?

[Anonymous No.27121321]

>>27116072
Because 'trading' is a meme for everyone except actual autists. All the money 'traders' lose is getting transferred to funds and long-term investors who don't shit the bed every single dip.

[Anonymous No.27121384]

>>27121274
also diversify

only an idiot puts 20k in one stock instead of 1k in 20 stocks

[Anonymous No.27121415]

>>27121321
As an actual autist how do i into trading?

[Anonymous No.27121431]

>>27116072
Its very simple, actually. Sell when I buy, and buy when I sell. The market is guaranteed to move against me

[Anonymous No.27121524]

trading is 90% risk management. you have no idea how to assess risk.

[Anonymous No.27121678]

>>27121384
how about 300k in LINK

[Anonymous No.27121730]

Bro tip : you can hold forever and make your money back (if you don’t need the shekels) or have a job

[Anonymous No.27121815]

>>27118544
Don't trade. That's literally it
Buy shit and hold it at least six months.

[Anonymous No.27121827]

making small gains over a long period of time is easy, but nobody wants to spend 5 years to make $1000 by risking 10K. The quick profits are 100% luck, you need to keep your eyes out for waves and ride them for a bit, then get off before it goes down.

[Anonymous No.27121946]

>>27121827
good luck finding waves before they reach the top

>10% in 5 years
unrealistic even for long term holders

[Anonymous No.27122139]

It takes a great deal of coordination to create and maintain a successful business. Everyone needs to be skilled, doing their part & doing it well, certainly good fortune has a part to play.
But all it takes is one dumb fuck on a smoke break to cause a trainwreck.

[Anonymous No.27122277]

Pick coins that people are rapidly joining in on.

MUSE had people clamouring to get inboard. 23% more 24h volume today. 87% More total liquidity. You do the math

[Anonymous No.27122345]

>>27117332
This, it is tacit memory, like riding a bike. You need skin in the game to learn how the market moves.

[Anonymous No.27122349]

>>27116072
just buy bitcoin. its that easy.

[Anonymous No.27122607]

Hodling is gay. I look at images of pic rel every now and then to remind myself of why hodl literally doesn't exist (you're just in a long pos), and why stop loss is life.

[Anonymous No.27122682]

>>27116072
Do the opposite of what you intend to do then you’ll be successful 90% of the time.

[Anonymous No.27122706]

>>27122345
Yeah, I read constantly how the best pro traders made nasty expensive mistakes when starting out. Thats why I'm doing tons of research to avoid a lot of those nasty potholes, but I understand its inevitable that ill learn a few lessons the hard way

[Anonymous No.27123765]

>>27116072
Literally this >>27122682, you're a beginner, so you're bound to make many wrong calls, so always do the opposite of what you think is a good idea.

[Anonymous No.27124209]

>>27123765
Yeah, trading can make you feel like you don't know which side is up or down

[Anonymous No.27124370]

>>27116072
It's literally gambling and moon logic, yeah.

[Anonymous No.27124439]

>>27122607
Why is Stop Loss so important?

[Anonymous No.27124618]

>>27116072
You need to research constantly. The more information you’re looking at the clearer the picture of what the market is doing and why it’s doing it will be. Always be following news events, memes, trends, new products, new companies, bonds, options, futures, commodities pricing, economic data the list is endless. Once you have a good picture of what’s been going on recently you can formulate a hypothesis about what might happen to the price of whatever security you’re trading. You test your hypothesis by entering a position in the market. People found GameStop by checking short interest. CLF was a good play based on iron ore prices. BBBY has high short interest and is buying back stock this year. TSLA was a good play after the split based on meme magic alone since it became easier to purchase shares at the lower price. If you want to find 10-100x opportunities you need to be constantly researching, posses balls enough to see your hypothesis through, and also get a bit lucky. That’s why you have to preserve your capital; because of luck. If you can keep your money and consistently stay on the prowl for big opportunities then it’s simply a numbers game until you hit a jackpot trade. Zoom is a good example from last year for anyone who works from home. Everyone started using that shit out of the blue and the stock mooned. Vista Outdoor mooned because of everyone buying guns and the ammo shortage. There was that tanker shit because of the oil glut. Once you tune your analysis of world events to pick up on potential opportunities you should win more than 50% of the time. Mega autists like Michael Burry make shit loads of money because they’re willing to sift through mortgage securities to find an opportunity.

[Anonymous No.27125098]

>>27119573
I was watching his videos he put out yesterday and he is a pretty good trader. I only got through one of his course episodes before I hit my MEGA quota. I'm pretty new to this as well but one strat I tried a few days back which work decently for me was placing trades when the 10 and 20 EMA lines cross each other on the lower timeframe. More often than not it worked good but it could have just been luck. Well what do I know I'm new to trading, I've been holding for years but shit gets so fucking boring when you see so much volatility in the market and you want to experience some of it yourself.

[Anonymous No.27125214]

>>27122706
I've made lots of mistakes just starting out and I feel like it's important that you make mistakes, you can read and learn all you want but big mistakes will stick with you forever and you'll never want to repeat them.

[Anonymous No.27125304]

>>27116072
Because it's manipulated. You trade on one exchange, it can see your positions, exchange-owned bots will attack you, squeeze you out or dump on you.
Even if there was no manipulation or no bots, every time you open/close a position, you affect the market. It's like throwing a stone in the water - it creates ripples that can be felt by everyone in the market. The bigger the position, the more it attracts everyone.

[Anonymous No.27125325]

>>27116407
I literally just look at my watched stocks and buy the dip, did 20 percent yesterday.

[Anonymous No.27125377]

>>27122706
>its inevitable
not only inevitable but necessary
The quicker you get emotions out of your system the better.
That is why so many traders fail and it's the origin of the buy high sell low meme. A tale as old as time.

[Anonymous No.27125392]

Anon you think too much. Very few cryptos follow charts. What you need to do is follow trends. Trade uptrending coins and you would have to be a literal special Olympics retard to lose more than you win. .

Also just get good. Bet you don't even use FIB noob

[Anonymous No.27125541]

>>27116072
Race car drivers travel at insane speeds yet still drive the same asphalt kids practiced on for years. How is it so hard for an average person to drive like the f1 drivers when they literally have the best course knowledge?

Instinct and intuition.

[Anonymous No.27125592]

>>27116072
>Logically you would think trading has a 50/50 chance of being in your favour,
I stopped reading there, anon you obviously are fucking retarded. Stop trading please.

[Anonymous No.27125728]

>>27125592
I'm told retards have an edge in the markets. Joke's on you.
>>27125377
Thanks bro, checked. WAGMI

[Vitalij_K No.27125761]

>goes up 200% in 2 weeks
>dumps 40%
rofl fellas it's totally over
don’t follow these trash tokens
follow xsn and get money without losing risks

[Anonymous No.27125871]

>>27124618
This
You have to live and breathe the markets, there is no other way

[Anonymous No.27125923]

I just buy like a retard for the long term and it always works out. For example, when muh gubbmint went into lockdown about 8 months ago I googled the largest lab testing companies and poomped all my disposable income at the time into one at random (Abbott) and walked away. Now that was a straightforward retard play, but I'm up nearly 40% on it. I also bought 10,000 shares of American Airlines @ 11.50 each, because that was the smart retard play. Of course people gonna want to travel, right? That's also up nearly 70%, and I'll be holding it long term probably into 2022. My biggest play was JustEat (basically Uber eats in the UK) which I retardedly surmised would go up since people would be staying at home and ordering food. Guess what stonks went up and I cashed out for a hefty profit. Currently trying to decide what to poomp it all in, probably will be American Airlines. If I can make money like this literally anyone can

[Anonymous No.27125957]

>>27125728
Well they fucking dont retard. Thats why you're losing trades. To think that people think that way is beyond me. look up a fucking youtube video for fucks sake at least.

[Anonymous No.27126025]

>>27116407
buy the whole market, hold, and never sell. you will unrionically make money. its literally guaranteed money.

[Anonymous No.27126078]

>>27125957
I'm just flexing on you cunt. Take a breath and calm down before you pop a blood vessel

[Anonymous No.27126114]

>>27125923
woops 1,000 shares of AA boys not 10k lul

[Anonymous No.27126137]

>>27126078
Im not mad but that was by far the dumbest thing i've read today on this site. It made me laugh.

[Anonymous No.27126164]

>>27116407
If anyone did they wouldn't just give them away to randoms on the internet.

[Anonymous No.27126167]

>>27116072
If there was a way to consistently win all your trades using TA or something else, you'd basically be processing and accounting for the decisions made by countless individuals... If people could do that, if one or a few people working together could anticipate the decisions/wants/etc of tons and tons of people as they are constantly changing based on constantly changing information, then theoretically government central planning of the economy (lesser forms on up to full communism) might be more effective if it were clever enough than the train wrecks that it always turns out to be, due to what economist Ludvig von Mises called the "calculation problem".

https://mises.org/library/problem-economic-calculation

The price is just the computation of tons of fucking people thinking from their own subjective standpoint, more or less rationally, and the sum of that changing all the fucking time 24/7/365 in crypto markets with events influencing others decisions in ways literally on one could predict... No not even the best traders are science fiction level super computers / AIs, the best traders make mistakes or get rekt sometimes. Really I don't think a mega super computer could do it either with perfect efficiency and success rate unless it was magically psychic. TA and good trading discipline and expterise can mitigate risk but not eliminate.. You could make what might have otherwise been a good call until Elon Musk puts BTC or whatever in his twitter profile.

[Anonymous No.27126209]

>>27120862
bro i watched link go to .001 usd on chinance and didnt flinch. my point is that stop losses and scam wicks can destroy you and stops and limits arent even available on a lot of dexes. trading to increase a cash pile? sure pick a strategy and stick to it but with crypto youll get priced eventually by a huge candle. the only time ill set stops is swinging a shitcoin to stack btc link and eth.

[Anonymous No.27126269]

>>27126137
>I'm told retards have an edge in the markets. Joke's on you.
The fact that you couldn't catch this as humor just revealed your midwit IQ level. Pretty embarrassing bro

[Anonymous No.27126357]

Open a Bible, pick a random sentence. Type letters in one at a time and buy each company you see. Buy one stock each. Repeat until you have used all your money. Use verse number for sell date. Let God be your light.

[Anonymous No.27126553]

>>27125098
I'm extremely jealous of his skills.
https://twitter.com/PhilakoneCrypto/status/1355215649027416064

Wish I could flip accounts like that

[Anonymous No.27126564]

>>27126357
>I.N., T.H., E.B., E.G., I.N., N.I., N.G., G.O., D.C., R.E., A.T., E.D., T.H., E.H., E.A., V.E., N.A., N.D., T.H., E.E., A.R., T.H."

Like this

[Anonymous No.27126636]

>>27126269
Of course I know it was humor but it just wasn't that funny at all. the fact that you think I was talking about your "joke" is obviously dumb. I guess plebbitors just dont understand. go back to loosing your trades faggot.

[Anonymous No.27126720]

i use a dice

[Anonymous No.27126844]

>>27126636
Yeah develop ass cancer on you way out the door dick head

[Anonymous No.27126900]

>>27126720
Same. Divination is fucking weird.

[Anonymous No.27126966]

>>27126636
You sound like an extremely insufferable faggot in real life

[Anonymous No.27127195]

>>27126025
>he doesn't know

[Anonymous No.27127206]

>>27126167
>You could make what might have otherwise been a good call until Elon Musk puts BTC or whatever in his twitter profile.
This is why I'm more interested in scalping than having my trades open for days and getting fucked from something uncalled for.

[Anonymous No.27127307]

>>27126720
lmao sorry I'm not part of your positive circle jerk sweetie. Maybe Reddit will. I'm just glad I'm smart enough to not think of this shit.
> Logically you would think trading has a 50/50 chance of being in your favour

[Anonymous No.27127448]

>>27126844
>>27126966

>>>>>>>27127307
For you two.

[Anonymous No.27127552]

>>27116072
>Logically you would think trading has a 50/50 chance of being in your favour

Something only having two outcomes does not make it a 50/50, this is a level of logic so low that I'm inclined to think you believe a pound of feathers is lighter than a pound of rocks

[Anonymous No.27127714]

>>27121022
this is what I wanna know, how do you get into the legit small groups that pump and direct the market. I wanna know the big shit before it goes to the moon

[Anonymous No.27127725]

>>27127552
This

[Anonymous No.27127787]

>>27126553
Holy fuck this looks like schizo robot language to a neophyte like me. I need to watch this dude's course

[Anonymous No.27128103]

>>27127787
Phil is fucking insanely skilled at trading. Im patiently waiting for someone to torrent his course when I comes out. It looks like he mostly uses chart patterns and elliot wave theory for the most part. He makes flipping $1k/day look like a joke

[Anonymous No.27128134]

>>27126025
This depends tho. I dont expect to hold $300 gamestop stock for even another week. Of course there are special reasons to not hold (dont hold gamestop stock until shit skyrockets, dont hold assets if you need extra money to treat a life threatening illness, dont hold assets if the business you invested in is on the verge of collapsing like hertz). However, holding is absolutely beneficial, like even if you bought 50k of dogecoin at .07 earlier. Unless you really need that money, dont sell it. It WILL pump again. You're just going to hold heavy ass bags for around a decade.

[Anonymous No.27128238]

>>27127787
>>27128103
/Biz/ Oldfags remember this gook when he was much more chill and made his lesson videos free. He became a drugged out asshole, but his skills as a trader are undeniable.

[Anonymous No.27128257]

>>27116072
If you went long on SPY (main stock index) 5 years ago, you would be up 96.90% right now, AKA 13.55% a year, which is HUGE.
Day trading is a waste of time.

[Anonymous No.27128377]

Really good shit in this thread. Not OP but thanks everyone who had something to contribute.

[Anonymous No.27128417]

As someone who's been trading off and on for 10 the past 10 years it blows my mind how there's so much blind faith and dumb luck in trading these days that makes people millionaires. Look as the tesla guys, bitcoin, gamestop, all these people are buying into something sometimes with all the money they have, holding even when they're about to lose it all and some come out multi millionaires. It used to be back in the day if you weren't on the inside in a hedge fund or bank obviously you'd want to use mathematics and fundamentals, this past week and past few years have shown more than ever that there's not much straightforward "logic" in the stock market and that it is extremely illogical. I guess it's always been illogical but with gme going up hundreds in minutes we're really shown that you just have to ride it to the moon sometimes.

[Anonymous No.27128462]

>>27116072
>but how is it that you have a 90% chance of getting rekt?
It’s really easy from a big picture standpoint. If trading was logical everybody would be rich and nobody would work. That’s by impossible, so the market by definition needs to disappoint the majority and to do so it needs to continually change up the rules.

[Anonymous No.27128667]

>>27128134
>doge and GME
this nigger has been "investing" for 5 days and is here giving out advice LOL

[Anonymous No.27128671]

>>27128417
The integration of applications that allow someone to invest is also a huge factor to the success of many idiots. Idiots with balls, but idiots nonetheless. I'm happy these average joes are actually making it but they're definitely crazy as fuck for doing what they did.

[Anonymous No.27128713]

>>27128377
Yeah same, got some good value. >>27125377
>>27125392
>>27124618
All stuck with me

[Anonymous No.27128841]

>>27128667
hey man just saying. i've been eating up a lot of wisdom and advise from oldfags on here and i think i'm making connections.

[Anonymous No.27128945]

>but how is it that you have a 90% chance of getting rekt
Read pic rel to enter chads mind while he trades. Long story short
>have zero emotions
>obey your stops and give zero fucks when you're stopped out
>if you feel you have an edge jump on it and don't hesitate

He argues this is what the 10% do which everyone else fails at

[Anonymous No.27128989]

>>27116072
Buy low, sell high. So hard.

[Anonymous No.27129022]

>>27116072
>Logically you would think trading has a 50/50 chance of being in your favour
lol

[Anonymous No.27129027]

>>27116072
Buy the dip faggot

[Anonymous No.27129107]

>>27121292
>dump it

[Anonymous No.27129180]

>>27128238
Do any of you guys have his course #3? I've been trying to find it for a fucking complete year now but only found 1 and 2.

[Anonymous No.27129282]

>>27129180
Seconding this. I have his course 2 but really want the live trades

[Anonymous No.27129298]

>>27120108
I have never used a stoploss

[Anonymous No.27129364]

>>27129298
How long do you ride a losing trade before exiting?

[Anonymous No.27129749]

>>27129364
Never exit. I only trade stablecoins / BTC so I know for a fact that at some point, my losing trade will be a winning trade again. Even if it takes half a market cycle

[Anonymous No.27129983]

>>27128238
His vids are depressing to watch. He just giggles and casually makes insane money like its a joke
https://youtu.be/8uZw5C_Pm6o

[Anonymous No.27130129]

>>27128257
Whats good now?

[Anonymous No.27130275]

>>27129983
checking this guy out for the first time. this shit makes my head spin

[Anonymous No.27130413]

>>27116072

nah you're just being emotional and succumbing to confirmation bias.

every time you're in the red its gut wrenching but when you're in the green its whatever. as humans we naturally feel more emotional about a loss than an equivalent gain. these losing moments stick out to you more.

[Anonymous No.27130571]

>>27129983
takes a certain mindset to actually do this
tried it out for a few weeks and it was soul crushing towards the end

[Anonymous No.27130708]

>>27130275
>>27129983
That's actually mind blowing wtf.

[Anonymous No.27130820]

>>27130571
Were you profitable in the end?

[Anonymous No.27130878]

>>27130129
Still SPY. I mean it's the main index, for SPY to crash unrecoverably, the whole USA would have to been on literal fire (not the nigger riot kind).

[Anonymous No.27130884]

>>27116072
>>27125592
This was my first thought. Yes, she's either green or red, but the underlying reasons for the move in either direction are incalculable, even algos can't do it ( if they could, we'd all just use those") So, a well informed guess is the best you've got in the short term. A far, far cry from 50/50. A longer time frame, fundamental understanding of the underlying business, or a psychology based technical approach ( like elliot wave ) would improve your success rate.

[Anonymous No.27130996]

>>27130820
I came out ahead a few grand, it was around march last year so I got in low several that I'm still hodling
did some swing trades as well and found it was something like 55% win rate, just needed to make sure I sold fast enough

first week or so was fun, waking up and seeing what the day brought, swing trading a few stocks for the day
wore me down though, you realize quickly how shallow it feels to just move money around as a living
honestly I can see why these guys jump off the roof when shit hits the fan

[Anonymous No.27131407]

>>27130571
Doesn’t surprise me he’s Asian. Soulless fucking people

[Anonymous No.27131724]

[Anonymous No.27131831]

>>27130878
Fuck thats expensive

[Anonymous No.27131880]

>>27130996
Nice. Did you adopt his strategy, or were you using other techniques?

And I feel you with the profits. Just pressing buttons on a screen isn't the most glorious... it can just be insanely profitable if done right

[Anonymous No.27131989]

>>27131831
Buy fractional shares.