[ 3 / biz / cgl / ck / diy / fa / ic / jp / lit / sci / vr / vt ] [ index / top / reports ] [ become a patron ] [ status ]
2023-11: Warosu is now out of extended maintenance.

/biz/ - Business & Finance

View post   
File: 239 KB, 1080x1920, 5678785.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
25996985 No.25996985[DELETED]  [Reply] [Original]

How long till housing prices crash?

>> No.25997016

When interest rates start rising.

>> No.25997025

I really want those pants in the back.

>> No.25997041

Never you are eternally priced out have fun paying the (((landlord))) the rest of your sad worthless life

>> No.25997082

Inflation is only priced in the really obscenely expensive markets, housing prices will go up before they come down

>> No.25997093

>>25997016
this, people are so overleveraged the moment interest rates go up 1% people won't be able to pay their mortgage

>> No.25997163

>>25997093
Aren’t interest rates locked when you take out a mortgage? Would higher interest rates only apply to new mortgages?

>> No.25997182

>>25996985
they probably won't anon. most housing markets in the US is high demand...and its not like we're running out of people who need a place to live.

>> No.25997202
File: 2.76 MB, 1065x708, amerimutt.gif [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
25997202

>>25997182
sadly

>> No.25997210

>>25997163
Oh boy.

>> No.25997238

>>25997163
prime example

>> No.25997250
File: 721 KB, 598x574, 1602708954754.gif [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
25997250

>>25996985

>> No.25997266
File: 102 KB, 430x574, 4A20C016-37F5-4CE3-98E6-C5B5976F519A.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
25997266

>>25996985

>> No.25997287

>>25996985
Got in at 208k for 1500 sqft

IFYKYK

>> No.25997367

>>25996985
Holy fucking booba I’m in love

>> No.25997387

>>25997210
>>25997238
who the fuck has an adjustable rate mortgage though?

>> No.25997388

>>25997093
That's not how it works retard you lock in your rate for the full term. I just got a 30 year mortgage at 2.7% for all 30 years. no matter what rates do in the future my payments won't change.

Meanwhile S&P is going up 20% a year, Bitcoin is up 4x last year and 30% already this year, and Tesla is up 10x last year and 20% this year. It's like they are paying me to take out a loan, it's fucking crazy

>> No.25997395

>>25996985
1-2 years tops.

>> No.25997442

>>25997388
I really shouldnt have bought my place in cash. Been considering moving so maybe i should sell now and get a good loan for my next place while i still can.

>> No.25997492

>>25997395
People have been saying this shit for years and guess what still hasn't happened. The Fed won't let it happen. The US is also importing millions of people a year largely from China and India, educated knowledge workers from rich families who will bid up prices more and more. Population keeps going up interest rats keep going down. The housing crash that Ron Paul yards have been predicting for years and years ain't coming

>> No.25997583

>>25997442
You fell for the "debt is bad" meme? Not sure whether to laugh or feel bad for you. I did a 30 year mortgage but I would have done 50 or even 100 year if I could so I'd have more free cash to buy stocks & crypto. Interest rates on mortgages are so low its like free money meanwhile asset prices keep going through the roof double or triple digit % gains per year

>> No.25997654

>>25997388
damn, didnt realise in the US there were 30 year fixed rate terms, up here in canuckistan 5 year is pretty much the maximum term for a "fixed" rate mortgage

jesus christ the financial institutions here are cucking us

a lot of americans are still on adjustable rate mortgages though I assume, especially with housing prices being so high in many cities

>> No.25997666

>>25996985
Only when DMG moons.

>> No.25997687

>>25997442
almost as bad as the autist on pol who keeps cash in his wall

>> No.25997794

>>25997583
Not so much that debt is bad it was more that i just didn’t want to deal with it at the time. Money was from a parents life insurance and bought the place at 24 and didnt want to have the hassle (or stress) with doing other investments. Should move that money to something more lucrative now though that it’s been a few years.

>> No.25997838

The government is backing some real subprime mortgages already, scraping the bottom of the barrel to keep the hot potato moving. They'll get anyone in a house who wants to ruin their lives.

The breaking point will be when the bubble gets so inflated that people can't afford the principle no matter what. Even with 3% down 50% DTI FHA loans, in some markets the average person still can't swing it.

>> No.25997839

>>25997163
Unless you get an ARM.

I bought my house for 2.75% in September with a trad mortgage I have no idea why people would go arm.

>> No.25997981

>>25997839
Arm makes sense if you are planning on owning short term. 5/1 ARM locks your rate for five years so if you're not planning on staying there for the long haul an ARM might be a good choice

>> No.25998048

>>25997202
lmao. the hands never stop rubbing never forget that

>> No.25998060

>>25996985
Never. When people fail to make payments and get foreclosed on, the banks will refuse to sell for less than their initial investment. They will baghold, raising the cost of housing even further.

>> No.25998119

>Biden proposes extending the national moratorium on evictions and foreclosures until Sept. 30
There you go

>> No.25998147

>>25997025
Good show. I thought

>> No.25998197

>>25998119
At which point it will be extended again.

You guys don't get it. The people calling the shots will never ever let the market crash. They will pump as many trillions as needed, lower interest rates lower than you can imagine, pass laws to keep people in their houses no matter what. Moral hazzard doesn't mean shit number goes up is all that they care about.

>> No.25998210

>>25997182
We're running out of people who can afford a place to live.

>> No.25998412

>>25998197
If you think foreclosures will be extended indefinitely, why not just buy a house and then just stop paying the mortgage, genius?

>> No.25998420
File: 110 KB, 960x960, 1595483509905.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
25998420

>>25996985
houses will crash when the country collapses, and no sooner. Since that's a mad max scenario that's not worth considering (because you'll probably die or become some warlord's sex slave if it happens), it's safe to assume it'll literally and never crash. Debasing the currency and manipulating interest rates and letting chinks launder their money through buying property and keeping them vacant forever will always be more politically expedient than letting a bubble with which the majority of your voting base is invested in collapse. So it simply will never happen. Houses will go up 10-20% every year forever, from now until the heat death of the universe.

Still makes more financial sense to rent and accumulate BTC as long as you can tolerate it, but buying houses will never be a losing proposition ever again. 2008 was a once in a millennium anomaly.

>> No.25998423

>>25998119
This. The minute I saw people begging for eviction moratoriums to continue and governments happily obliged I knew they would never let them happen again, for both to please the socialists and to prevent another housing crisis. They MAY allow it when the economy starts going again but for every single downturn there will be eviction moratoriums

>> No.25998486

>>25997016
so... never then. if they rise even 1% everyone and their overleveraged grandma gets wiped out. not gonna happen unless a jubilee magically gets declared

>> No.25998506

>>25997016
what kind of brainlet doesn"t get the fucking fixed rate? Have the lower classes learned nothing from their folly?

>> No.25998525

>>25998420
Does this mean I'll be a sex slave to someone like in OP's pic? Cause that wouldn't be that bad

>> No.25998546

>>25998412
I think you can expect a lot of that to happen. Not like the banks care they will get bailed out.

Reason not to do it is it will destroy your credit and make it hard to buy another house or even rent an apartment so there is some incentive to pay on time.

>> No.25998598

>>25996985
I sold my home and have been renting a shit apartment thinking housing was going to crash in 2020 to upgrade to better home. Then fucking covid happened and housing in LA area sky rocketed due to shits in other states moving out west.

It better fucking tank this year or else I'm just going to move to Texas.

>> No.25998599

>>25998210
no we're not. just cause you're poor doesn't mean everyone else is. houses in my will hit the market and have multiple offers on it within the first day or two. not exaggerating at all. buyers will get into bidding on absolutely anything that hits the market in the 500k-750k range...it's very competitive. people want to get the fuck out of NTC, Boston, LA..etc and this has been a boon for safe white neighborhoods all across the country.

>> No.25998620

>>25997387
I think what they're implying is that when interest rates rise your home value falls which could trigger your bank to make a sort of margin call ie you no longer have at least an 80% loan to value, so your bank says we need $30,000 by next Friday.

>> No.25998673

>>25998620
nah, that's not how it works anon. there is such a thing as adjustable rate mortgages, but you'd be stupid to take one right now when we're at historic lows.

>> No.25998708

>>25997016

Good so never

>> No.25998742

>>25998620
No that's not how mortgages work at all, you are borrowing a fixed sum of money against the house. The principal is a fixed sum with the house as collateral, the house's value doesn't matter. 2008 blew up because every retard had an ARM.

>> No.25998785

>>25997838
Queue (cue?) the 40 year mortgage. When that fails, 50 year. Then no-down-payment. Then negative interest rates, or maybe interest-only mortgages? We can keep this up much much longer.

>> No.25998854

>>25998785
>interest-only mortgages
jesus christ don't give the jews ideas

but also why would anyone swallow that shit, it's literally no different than renting. Paying infinite money for zero equity.

>> No.25998902

>>25998854
interest only mortgages exist, you're just too poor to get offered one. Banks will sell you any financial product you want if you have money.

>> No.25998961

>>25998854
you WILL eat the bugs
you WILL NOT pay the principal

>> No.25998981

>>25998854
Not necessarily there is your down payment plus any early repayment applied to principal and also you would earn gains from appreciation.

>> No.25998999

>>25998785
Next step is 200 year intergenerational mortgages

>> No.25999012

>>25998902
jesus that sounds like a shit scenario. pay interest for 5-10 before making any payments on principal...who the fuck does that? although...desu, in a market that is only going up, it's probably not even a bad idea for people who don't have better options. buy on interest only mortgage...sell for in 5 years for a 100k profit.

>> No.25999523
File: 58 KB, 846x960, 1610122527231.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
25999523

I am a senior loan officer at one of the largest mortgage companies in America, and half of you in this thread are retarded.
Ask me literally anything about the American mortgage industry.

>> No.25999584

>>25999523
is america even worth buying a home in? Taxes are homo and nigger riots made me hate the city

>> No.25999782

>>25999523
would you buy homebuilder stock yes or no

>> No.26000039

>>25999523
I have $80k. I want a $200k house. How do I buy one without getting raped?

>> No.26000085

>>25996985
They already did, see Detroit

>> No.26000125

>>25999523
How can I buy a house as an illegal

>> No.26000132

>>26000039

You just fucking buy one you moron

You're stressing out about $120k of mortgage plus tax? FUCK YOU

>> No.26000162

>>25998506
>what kind of brainlet doesn"t get the fucking fixed rate?
Almost everyone gets the fixed rate. But there are new buyers every year. If interest rates go up to 6 percent again or even 12 percent like it's been further in the past then all the new buyers will have 6 percent (or 12 percent) as their fixed rate, not 2 percent.

>> No.26000199

>>25999523
show a side profile of your face/nose to confirm

>> No.26000225

>>25996985
When Biden shuts down immigration on day 1.

>> No.26000298

I am paying my mortgage off like a madman, I paid $60k in principle in 2020, I have $70k left to go and I will own my house (~4000 sq ft, original note was $250k)... I should be a true homeowner by end of 2021

how stupid am I?

>> No.26000327

>>26000298
my note rate is 3.875%

>> No.26000366

>>26000298
What's your interest rate? Why aren't you putting that money into the stock market or Bitcoin for mad gains instead of paying off your mortgage? Do you like being poor?

>> No.26000417

>>26000366
3.875%

>> No.26000468

>>26000417
S&P went up over 20% last year and you're worried about paying down your 3.8% loan? Bitcoin is up 400% but instead of buying that you're rushing to pay off a 3.8% loan? What the fuck?

>> No.26000480

>>26000039

That shouldn't be a problem if you're making a decent wage to pay down the monthly mortgage and household expenses. The smart play would be to acquire tenants if you have the room to board them in order to pay the mortgage.

>> No.26000486

>>26000298
You fell for the boomer "debt bad" meme.
Even if you're a multimillionaire the better deal right now is to take out the mortgage at 2% fixed for the next 30 years with as little down payment as possible so you can invest your still freed up cash into even more money making ventures.
Even if inflation rate stays about where it is interest rates are pretty much negated by it, and realistically inflation is going to start accelerating.

>> No.26000527

>>26000298
>feverishly paying down mortgage
>when he can refinance down to like 2.something percent

Extremely stupid

Also

>true homeowner

Unless you stop paying your eternal property taxes. Then the government can take THEIR house back, goy.

>> No.26000552

>>26000527
>government can take THEIR house back

god damn it

I guess I have been stupid, biz

>> No.26000611

Single family homes? Soon. Duplexes+? Never

>> No.26000634

>>26000486
I definitely despise debt, can't stand it
without a mortgage payment my monthly expense are basically negligible, I suppose I have been dreaming about that state of freedom for a while - where I could lose my job and not really give a fuck because I have no debt/expenses

>> No.26000671

>>26000634
elmination of debt is basically an escape from wage slavery cycle, in my humble opinion

>> No.26000728

>>26000527
If you own your home outright, and you really can’t pay your taxes then you could sell and cut your check to tax man and move into an apartment. Really not that hard

>> No.26000765

>>26000728
>just sell your house bro

>> No.26000777

>>26000728
This is retarded, property taxes in good states (not blue knee grow cities) are WAY cheaper than rent.

>> No.26000779

>>26000671
lmao oh really? How are you going to eat without wages? How are you going to pay the taxes you own on "your" property without wages? You are still a slave debt or no so best to be a slave making mad gains investing in stocks & crypto rather than scraping and saving every penny to pay off your 3% mortgage. You are incurring an enormous opportunity cost

>> No.26000807

>>26000552
It's pretty hard to not be able to pay your property taxes when the loan is already paid off. That annual tax amounts to a couple hundred dollars a month for most people after homestead exemption. You could make more than enough money for that if you ever lost your existing income just by renting out a spare room or two.

>> No.26000835

>>26000777
Yeah, the "you're basically still renting because you pay a property tax once a year" argument is just salty rentfag cope.

>> No.26000894

>Congress bans foreign investment in real estate in the USA.
>Housing bubble pops because Chinese can't steal land anymore.

>> No.26000909

>>26000777
also checkem

>> No.26000937

>>26000779
I understand the opportunity cost, but I am not leveraged at all and my overall risk at that point is severely reduced/negligible - if I lost my primary job I could get whatever dumbass part time job and still pay the bills, I wouldn't have to interview and put out resumes and kiss corporate ass

>IT worker, make $110k a year, 36 years old

I'll own my house in 11-12 more months of my current pace and then can throw money like crazy at market and crypto

I played market this year and did well... I bought VSTO @ $6, OLN @ $10 and a bunch of oil stocks in march as well (HAL, OXY, MRO), I mine BTC on my GPU

also max out my 401k every year, and have a fuck ton of firearms

>> No.26000976

>>26000807
I know, my property taxes are $4500 a year, my monthly expense would be real low, I would be able to pay them easily

>> No.26001175

>>26000937
>then can throw money like crazy at market and crypto

after missing out on a 200x gain in Bitcoin over the last five years. Sorry to tell you this but there isn't likely to be another one of those. But hey at least you won't be paying 3% interest a year amirite? Mine Bitcoin on your GPU? You sure your not a boomer?

You missed the greatest bullrun in the history of the world just to save a couple bucks a month on loan interest

>> No.26001327

>>26001175
I definitely missed out on crypto, but I did very well in the 2020 market

I'll own my house soon, the value has risen to somewhere around ~$400k

you seem angry bro

I probably have about $100k worth in firearms (ARs and AKs), if the dems get their way and enact a new AWB and NFA everything, all of my shit will 10x and I will dump 90% of my shit, I have around 50k rounds of various calibers that I could sell now at tremendous gain

>> No.26001364

Fuck. I literally wrote 3000 words, accidentally hit the back key on my mouse and lost it all.

>> No.26001370
File: 83 KB, 1024x1018, 1591041693407m.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
26001370

>>25996985
Never. The dollars gonna bleed into the ground, and prices will keep going up, and normies will think the economy is somehow magically not crashing. And then the western world will be Venezuela.

>> No.26001424

>>25996985
Never lol
Landlords will find new renters, and poor people will join the ever growing legions of the undead (homeless)

>> No.26001427

>>25998620
That's not how any of this works. It's threads like this that remind me there are so many larpers and 15 year old who don't know jack about shit on here. Lmao

>> No.26001492

>>25996985
lol been waiting since 2015

>> No.26001739

>>26001492
Same. Thats why I bought in September. Fuck this.

>> No.26001792

>>25996985
she's wife material

>> No.26001878

$15 min wage makes nobody able to find a job again so no one can afford the rent that buyers expected, and they have to sell.

>> No.26001886

>>25997016
>interest rates start rising
why?