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/biz/ - Business & Finance

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25554647 No.25554647 [Reply] [Original]

Every single stock market crash in the last 100 years was preceded by a hike in interest rate

The markets won't crash until there's an interest rate hike.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS

>> No.25555129

no shit. you could also say every crash is followed by a decrease in interest rate. look at 08 crash. rent had been rising for 3 years and even taken a dive before the crash. how are we supposed to take advantage of this?

>> No.25555376

>>25555129
>no shit. you could also say every crash is followed by a decrease in interest rate.

Yeah, but by then its too late because you lost all your money

> rent had been rising for 3 years and even taken a dive before the crash. how are we supposed to take advantage of this?

You know the stock market won't tank until interest rates go up.

As long as the FED keeps interest rate at its current level or below, the stock market will continually rise.

All crashes are preceded by an interest rate hike, but not all interest rate hikes precede a crash. If interest rates hike, we don't know whether the market will crash, but if interest rates DONT hike, which they won't for the next three years, we know the market is 100% SAFE

>> No.25555903

>>25554647
>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS
thanks for the alpha fren.
Got any more? I only know some non macro sources...

>> No.25555932

>>25555376
not bad. take positions during the crash and start averaging out of stocks as rates increase. seems logical. you are risking op. costs by getting faked out, if you started exiting in '95 though.

>> No.25555956

>>25555903
FRED is all I use, I'm sure there are some better sources.

I know bloomberg has got good stuff but i don't have it. Koyfeigh is another one.

>> No.25556001

theres too much debt to raise the rates

we are more likely to go to negative rates than to have it rise

>> No.25556168

>>25555932
When interest rates hike I plan to move my funds to short term bonds, ideally higher yielding bonds.

>> No.25556227

>>25556001
Well then the market will continually go up, forever,

It doesn't matter if they raise rates or they don't, just know that WHEN rates go up, it's time to move to short term bonds.

>> No.25556516

>>25556168
when rates hike bonds tank. you might think its a good idea now, but throwing hard earned cash into a sinking ship will not come easy when its time.

>>25556001
we are already in negative rate. wether its -1% or 1% inflation is putting it below 0. how low the rates can go, we dont know. there are countries where it is negative and you are paying money for keeping a savings account.

>> No.25556565

>>25556516
>when rates hike bonds tank. you might think its a good idea now, but throwing hard earned cash into a sinking ship will not come easy when its time.

Long term bonds tank, short term bonds have no reason to tank, because you're going to get your money back in such a short period of time. Even if interest rates hike up like crazy, a 3-month bond will still be worth almost the exact same.

And even if the bonds tank, who cares? You'll get your money back in 3 months.

>> No.25557212

>>25554647
> markets won't crash until there's an interest rate hike.

Interesting you say that....

>> No.25557321

>>25557212
Why is it interesting? I feel that was a sarcastic comment.

>> No.25557458

>>25556565
thanks for throwing this in the mix. quality thread.
whats your take on not just going into short term bonds, but into other related to lending for example banking stocks? maybe insurance?

>> No.25557517

>>25554647
Sounds like you've been playing too much Minecraft.

>> No.25557626

>>25557212
Interest rates aren't rising for at least a couple years

>> No.25557743

>>25557458
I wouldn't buy any bank stocks or insurance stocks because a lot of their assets rely on long-term debts. Banks own a lot of 30 year mortgages. If interest rates hike, those mortgages will tank in present value and the value of the bank stocks will as well.

That's why when interest rates go up, ceteris paribus, bank stocks and insurance companies go down too.

>> No.25557792

>>25557626
2024 is what the FED said.