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/biz/ - Business & Finance

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25370515 No.25370515 [Reply] [Original]

>trying to buy a house in Phoenix
>everything is getting ridiculously expensive
>people are bidding 20-40k over listing price

How long can this shit last?

>> No.25370533
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25370533

>>25370515
Until heat death of the universe desuwa.

>> No.25370551

just thank God you aren't in england

>> No.25370764

The bubble pop real soon. AirBNB has boosted real estate beyond a reasonable level. Covid has destroyed the rental market and housing will be corrected this summer.

>> No.25370841

>>25370515
it's all the faggot commiefornians moving here

>>25370764
not true in scottsdale. i know a couple that has 7 airbnb properties and they're all booked solid through the rest of high season.

t. scottsdale resident

>> No.25370909

>>25370841
Scottsdale is mostly where Midwesterners come to die.
On our block, we had three families from North Dakota. How in the hell do you get three families from North Dakota randomly in one place under normal circumstances? Blocks in North Dakota only have one house in the middle of a field.

>> No.25370940

>>25370515
When you buy

>> No.25371021

>>25370909
youre not wrong about that. lot of midwesterners and canadians where i live, out near fountain hills

>> No.25371052

Phoenix is just California Lite, so I wouldn't expect it to get better as Californians continue to flee the state.

>> No.25371086
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25371086

>>25370764
There's a housing shortage right now still. Plus landlords at traditional multifamily apartment complexes are going to be the main ones dealing with the mass evictions and they charge more than the people renting out a spare room in their own house can charge.
And for whatever reason the US lets non-citizens buy American property. You can even take out a mortgage to buy an American house without being an American citizen.
Between foreign buyers more than filling in the vacancies of dying baby boomers and the Fed literally announcing "QE Infinity" and printing 25% of the money ever created since the beginning of history, in less than a year, I only see the regular single family housing market increasing that much more from here on out.

>> No.25371102

>>25370515
dealing with same thing but worse in Boise anon.

>> No.25371122

>>25370515
look 40-60 miles outside of phoenix

>> No.25371168

>>25371102
>Boise
why? work? i've never even been there and i know it's the next portland.

>> No.25371188

a roastie that i know of is waiting until next year to get a place in scottsdale. i'm seeing multifamilies being listed for 450k when a year ago it was 119k. Its nuts. I think the forebearance program is suppose to be ending this coming summer so hopefully that will free up the market.

>> No.25371195

You have to go where the boomers aren't. Their portfolios are skyrocketing right now thanks to brrr and millennials and younger just can't compete with daddy big dick

>> No.25371208

>>25371168
it is extremely blackpilling but it is true. the average house in Boise is about 400k now and the wages are among the lowest in the country...

>> No.25371220

I bought a house in phoenixx last year. I had to bid 7k over listing price and pay closing costs. lmao at 20k to 40k over now. Fucking californiafags.

>> No.25371246

>>25370515
Housing is a supply and demand market.
Supply is low, in all major cities, nationwide, in response to COVID.
Moratorium on eviction & foreclosures is still in play.
When it expires, supply will increase resulting in....
you guessed it.

>> No.25371287

>>25371246
i just hope banks and hedge funds wont come in like vultures bidding up the price making the whole case invalid

>> No.25371299

>>25370515
It will last as long as it has to and as long as the government is willing to keep propping it up.
But no market trends in only one direction forever. It is inevitable that at some point someone is going to have to take a loss just to sell their house, and with boomers, I suspect they'll literally die before they accept that. So, the house will end up in the hands of a bank who will eventually sell for a loss given enough time.
This is all of course assuming current lending practices remain. If the lending practices ever revert for whatever reason back to pre-2008 predatory levels, this process of market correction could take even longer.

>> No.25371319

>>25371208
and it's swarming with oregon, washington, and cali refugees bringing their garbage politics with them. idaho will be deep blue very soon. montana next.

>> No.25371342

>>25371188
Yeah, I'm in a Texas suburb 15 minutes from Dallas and with Silicon Valley corporations escaping from California and all coming to Texan cities my normal appreciation gains have been on rocket fuel meth lately.
Plus when the US Dollar shits the bed that's the perfect time for leveraging a couple hundred thousand in 30 year fixed rate debt. Your debt will pay itself between USD losing more purchasing power each day and your interest rate locked in at 2% until you're 60.

>> No.25371352
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25371352

>>25371168
nah its nothing like Portland. MAGA dudes everywhere. Guns everywhere. It's fucking fantastic here, low cost of living, low taxes. I work remote for a tech company and they let me go wherever I wanted.

Houses here are on market for 3-4 days MAX in the good areas, some going 50-100K over asking.

Absolutely retarded.

>> No.25371354

>>25371319
it's sad watching it happen right in front of my own eyes

>> No.25371397

>>25371287
You will also have to compete with the mass migrations of human beings from liberal stronghold areas (e.g. NYC, the entire state of california). So you are right, it may be a wash, but nobody knows what happens next for sure.

>> No.25371405

>>25371287
i bid 50k over asking on a foreclosure and had my bid literally ignored for a month. the day i pulled it they took an all cash offer at list price. place was worth more than i offered, easy. fairly certain my agent was in on it. it's not just about bidding prices up, it's about keeping normal people from feeling like they won, ever. it's a demoralization campaign.

>> No.25371413

>>25371354
it''s be a while before that happens, few decades. That's why ill buy in now and happily sell it for 3x in 10-20 years to fucking retards. By then maybe CA will have flipped red and ill move to CA lol.

>> No.25371454

>>25371299
If inflation stops or reverses into deflation, then housing prices will fall. But like you said, that happening is pretty much the exact opposite of everything the Federal Reserve is working towards. If the Fed continues to pull off MMT it means inflation keeps going up each year even in good times. And if the Fed completely loses control and USD collapses then your land and house will be that much more valuable as a real value asset at a time when cash is Venezuela'd.

>> No.25371464

>>25371352
>MAGA dudes everywhere
is that supposed to be a good thing?

>> No.25371481

>>25371413
Lol. California is a harbinger of what the entire nation is trending towards.
I know one thing for sure, your scheme won't work.

>> No.25371485

>>25371464
If you dont want it turning into fucking retarded ass Portland it is, imo

>> No.25371514

>>25371413
>CA will have flipped red
by adopting the current left wing position?
holy fuck are you dense. where are you from?

>> No.25371526

>>25371481
CA was red 30 years ago. Things are constantly changing. Right now ID is deep red and Ill live here until it is ruined by liberals and I'll go somewhere else with the profits.

>> No.25371529

>>25370515
the FED is printing trillions and people need somewhere to park their funny money

>> No.25371533

>>25370515
>The bubble pop real soon. AirBNB has boosted real estate beyond a reasonable level. Covid has destroyed the rental market and housing will be corrected this summer.

This requires a lot of patience, which most normies do not have given their 2 week attention spans.

Wait until 2022. For now, just live in your mum's basement.

>> No.25371538

>>25371397
>human beings

>> No.25371546

>>25371485
what does MAGA mean in 2020?

>> No.25371551

>>25371514
"by then maybe" you fucking retard. It was red 30 years ago, so was NY.

Read a book.

>> No.25371574

>>25371533
>just wait bro, it'll happen eventually

>> No.25371576

>>25371546
conservatives that don't necessarily like establishment GOP.

>> No.25371600

>>25371526
>Things are constantly changing
first correct thing you've said. in which direction are they changing? answer without using "left", "right", "red", "blue", or any other reference to political party.
>reminder Obama was publicly opposed to gay marriage in 2012

>> No.25371613

The bubble is more obvious than you think. The bubble is the entire United States, or, that is, wanting to live in the United States.

California is an example of how people are willing to overpay living in a 3rd world country, so as long as they think they are richer than everyone else. The bubble will pop as soon as people realize that the US is extremely overpriced. I would go as far as to say that the US dollar is overpriced, and because it is overpriced, every asset denominated in US dollars is also overpriced.

We're going to enter a period of social unrest and instability. Most people don't know what to put their money in, but really the most risky asset right now are financial assets. Spending that money now, on real goods that will get you past this period will be your most valuable asset.

>> No.25371625

>>25370764
This isn't a bubble. This is the dollar losing it's value in real time.

>> No.25371646

>>25371526
The CA demographics were completely different 30 years ago. Folks 30 years ago eventually left, died, were outcompeted in the reproduction game, or were overrun by a completely different set of people w/ a different culture.. The projected demographics moving forward for CA= blue, for the rest of your lifetime.
You make that bet you were talking about and I guarantee you lose just via demographics.

>> No.25371659

>>25371319
Where can I go where I can be proud to be white and hang my Nazi flag without my family be threatened? One guy decided to hang a Nazi flag on his house and got in the national news. FOR A FUCKING PIECE OF CLOTH MAN

>> No.25371660

>>25371625
Yup.
If you guys aren't going to buy property you should at least get into real value commodities of some sort. I do not trust where USD is headed at all.

>> No.25371666

>>25370515
>Phoenix


People are leaving California and moving to az. Shit will be fucked for a at least a couple years or until newsom gets his face kicked in. A shitty house in ca will buy a really nice house in az.

>> No.25371682

>>25371600
socially things are definitely heading more liberal, which in some ways are fine imo and in some ways not. but with GOP holding SCOTUS 6-3 for next 30 years, things will be fine until then.

That will prevent radical legislation from getting through. I would also expect state governors to emerge as much more important as covid showed us.

You'll see governors push back more and more against any policy by either side that is too extreme imo

it's all about balance.

>> No.25371690

>>25371625
Because people are speculating on bonds and the Fed's purchases are propping up the house of cards.

Expect corporate credit spreads to explode, and the entire bond market to collapse on itself when investors realize there's no such thing as a free lunch.

>> No.25371713

>>25371666

Yep, there may be a correction but there are still a lot of people moving to phoenix.a lot of businesses as well. The bubble popping may not affect the phx housing market as some ppl believe.

>> No.25371719

>>25370515
I paid 20k over for my house but it's appreciating at 1% per month since the market is on fire. Listing was 630 and I paid 650. That was 5 months ago so im up now. Just get in or forever be on the sidelines.

>> No.25371730

>>25371551
>read a book
says the rootless man arguing dual-party establishment-as-identity
what does "red" mean? what did "red" mean thirty(read a style guide, retard) years ago? what will "red" mean thirty years from now?>>25371576
just replace "red" with "conservative"

i'll wager the republican party in thirty years will be more gay and less white than the democrat party is right now. how would that be helpful to me, a white man with white children? who's interests will the republican party be championing then? they can't even openly court white people right now. what is the point of a "red" "conservative" state if you'll be living next to gay niggers from outer space?

>> No.25371740

>>25371287
banks will wait for a crash before buying
>>25370515
bubble will continue as long as safeguards are in play. Low interest rates. fed money. stimulus gibs.

perhaps buy now and ride it up a bit. short sell if if crashes real bad or buy something that should cash flow as a rental jic

>> No.25371745

Also if you buy a new house straight from the developer you don’t have to deal with bs like negotiating. Maybe you pay a premium but at least to get a new house and no bs.

>> No.25371800

>>25370515
>How long will this lasts
It depends, when will normalfags come to terms with the fact that their fiat is now worthless?

>> No.25371805

>>25371405
damn that sucks anon
>>25371613
Really depends on what Janet Yellen is going to do once she takes over and if theirs another round of lockdowns. I think Q1 & Q2 will determine the outlook for the rest of 2021. Biden being in office means jack shit if the senate is republican. You'll have a blue executive branch but a red legislative and judical branch. If anything biden would be a centrist similar to mark kelly .
I agree with this guy >>25371625
I looked at a recent interview with the ceo of starwoods hotels and he's expecting the US to become Japan, where "you own nothing and you will be happy" is everywhere. It's funny as most anime shows have families living in apartments and the rich actually owning the home.

>> No.25371859

>>25371682
>GOP holding SCOTUS 6-3 for next 30 years, things will be fine until then
lmao. they've already cucked on multiple things. going forward, gorsuch, kavanaugh, and roberts will take turns assuring the "balance" is struck. balance means you lose, retard. shit's been unbalanced for 80+ years and you call for balance.
>I would also expect state governors to emerge as much more important as covid showed us.
oh did it show us that? show me a thriving state right now. show me a state that isn't losing jobs by the day. show me a state that isn't being infiltrated by people with other loyalties.

>> No.25371887

>>25371800
>It depends, when will normalfags come to terms with the fact that their fiat is now worthless?
If they come to terms with that then housing prices will be even higher.
The less valuable USD is the more USD it takes to get someone to trade you their house for it. Nobody would want to give you their house if the $300K you're offering is now the going price for a loaf of bread.

>> No.25371906

>>25371287
you forgot all the foreign powers who are free to buy up all the property they want. There will be no dips in the housing market ever again, because all TPTB don't want that to happen. And any slight dip in value would result in Chong Ching swooping in and buying everything up, like what you see happeining in Australia and Hongcouver

>> No.25371937
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25371937

>>25370515
>mfw zogmerica is finally colllapsing

>> No.25372085

>>25371805
>I agree with this guy >>25371625
>I looked at a recent interview with the ceo of starwoods hotels and he's expecting the US to become Japan, where "you own nothing and you will be happy" is everywhere. It's funny as most anime shows have families living in apartments and the rich actually owning the home.
not singling you out, but this point needs to continue to be made.
the two most likely scenarios both point to:
if you have the means to comfortably buy a home right now you should buy one, preferably with some land.
we either continue to inflate the real dollar - you should buy right now
or, we stagnate despite trying to inflate the real dollar - you should buy right now
not buy where you want, not buy your dream home, buy something that fits your current means. you'll be better off over the rest of your life if you borrow current dollars at 3% to pay for the place you live in for the next howevermany years.

>> No.25372095
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25372095

>>25370515

Daily reminder that the bubble is already popping -- against Bitcoin.

Housing, stocks, bonds, the dollar, collectibles, PMs -- it's all collapsing, depreciating at warp speed in Sats.

You're looking at the markets wrong. Stop valuing with the dollar or other fiat and you'll see what's really taking place. Bitcoin is the pin, and the balloon has been pricked. The store-of-value premium assigned to all other assets is being sucked into the black hole that is Bitcoin.

You guys do have 100% of your liquid capital assigned to BTC -- right?

>> No.25372133

>>25371719
This is probably the best advice but sucks, depending on why your buying a house. If its for cash flow then fuck the asking price your'e renters will eat it. If its a primary residence then a different story.>>25371666
california introducing rent control from an economic prespective is the most retarded they could have done. When looking into every single area that has rent control all that its done is make the politicans looked very good in the eyes of the public while everyone short of the rich got fucked over on the numbers, prices, and affordability.
>https://www.city-journal.org/self-defeating-effects-of-ny-rent-regulation
Rent controls destroys a cities ability to keep affordable housing for the middle and lower class. So I can hope other states don't follow this dumbass move.

>> No.25372145

>>25371682
>>25371551
come back, shitpolitics from "alt news" youtube anon. don't let me actually believe that i jarred your broken brain.

>> No.25372168

>>25371625
If the dollar is losing value as you say it is, people would be selling US dollar denominated assets, including US stocks, US real estate, and US bonds. There are inflows into these products, not outflows.

But if that thesis was true, then you should be buying Turkish Lira bonds, which I'm trying to get my hands on as they have most to gain in a US dollar collapse. In a dollar collapse, the Ruble and Lira (the worst global currencies) will do extremely well because they're not as attached to the dollar and have the least to lose in such a predicament. Although it's easier to just buy gold if you're in the West.

>>25371805
Janet Yellen has no power. If no one buys on-the-run US treasuries, you will see interest rates go up. There is nothing the Fed can do, if China, Saudi Arabia, South Korea and Japan buy less and less debt, it will put upwards pressure on interest rates. If China needs liquidity, they will sell treasuries to get that liquidity, and that pushes interest rates up as well.

That explains why interest rates have been going up slowly, since global trade isn't really happening. The US needs to constantly consume, and the trade deficit needs to grow larger in order for the US treasury market to function. The "money printer" is trade deficit growth, and the excess treasury buildup is removed from markets through the Fed purchasing bonds, removing liquidity from the system.

Being bearish on the dollar would push interest rates higher, and if interest rates go any higher, it begins to destroy credit markets, and everything else with it, including Gold

The only thing that isn't destroyed are the things no one is holding right now, and right now no one is holding onto Turkish Lira bonds and Russian Ruble bonds. Who in their right mind would hold that junk.

>> No.25372190

>>25372133
something like 1 in 7 californians are on unemployment

>> No.25372288

>>25372168
i'm trying to find a way to cheaply hold rubles as well. and yuan, or renminbi. i don't know the difference but i know i want chinese currency.

>> No.25372433

>>25372168
>If the dollar is losing value as you say it is, people would be selling US dollar denominated assets, including US stocks, US real estate, and US bonds. There are inflows into these products, not outflows.
The US allows foreign buyers to purchase American land and property.
A weak US dollar attracts hoards of foreign buyers to go on a spending spree because their own foreign currency will be able to buy a lot more than it normally would.

>> No.25372479

>>25372433
as cousin mike would say, we're not a country, we're an economic zone.

>> No.25372495
File: 730 KB, 1125x2436, bongmonetarybase.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
25372495

>>25370515
>How long can this shit last?

https://wtfhappenedin1971.com

As long as polticians keep increasing the monetary base the price of stuff will keep going up, specially low supply shit like housing or bitcoin.

>> No.25372571

>>25370515
Never, they're not going to lower the interest rates anytime soon. The moratorium on mortgages isn't going to end until the economy is back to normal either. People will keep maxing out their credit to buy shit tier particle board houses and there's nothing we can do about it.

I don't get it either, I didn't buy when I should have but I'm not FOMO'ing now.

>> No.25372583

>>25370515
It all collapses this year

>> No.25372632

>>25372433
I could see Biden opening up the United States to foreign buyers, but that isn't going to entice people from richer foreign countries to move here.

Foreign buyers may think twice about the US as a place to call home, especially in this new populist era we're entering. The biggest buyers were the Chinese and I think that trend just died. The Chinese who did buy real estate in CANZUK are having second thoughts right now.

Basically that era of rising home prices are going to end soon, but it's going to take some time. It would happen after CARES act, and after the vaccinations. The immigration gates will open, but no one will come. We might even have expat outflows next year, mostly foreigners who are regretting their decision.

>> No.25372774

The only demand for housing are 3rd world FOMO retards (the US has plenty of them) who think the dollar is going to zero, because that was the experience they had coming from their shithole country where inflation was an actual concern.

The worst we will experience is what the UK experienced with the Sterling being devalued after WW2 (or when the UK lost reserve currency status).

>> No.25372808

>>25372133
I spend upwards of 16hrs a day listening to webinars and boring hour long boomer money talks.
>>25372168
I have read that the ruble was a good play along with uranium, copper and oil. I asked raol from real vision on his thoughts on commidites and funny enough he's to focused on bitcoin to care. Commdities esp uraninum with all this green talk is going to be the next bitcoin/weed thing up until around 2025 imo
Idk about your bit on interest rates?
Investors are constantly seeking yield, and thats why US stocks & real estates are at an all time highs. Cause, if you had the chance to buy tokyo property in the 90s would you do it. Toyko now has the highest property valuations on the planet.
I would be very cautious to buy US bonds. if interest rates go up it would be march all over again. You will see boomers neck themselves and hero from the balcony. Theirs more talks about interest rates going negative than going up, esp in times with near 0 rates.
I say janet yellen because like christian legarde they are much more focused on putting this humantiarian front (stimulus,lockdowns,social distancing) and while thats cool..it wrecks the economic long term for everyone. I think you have things confused.
There is also a growing trend of other countries trading for goods and services in non usd currencies such as the ruble, and euro.

>> No.25372820

>>25372632
>I could see Biden opening up the United States to foreign buyers
dude where have you been?

>> No.25372906

>>25372479
Hail chairman Mike

>> No.25372921

>>25372632

if any other country with a decent standard of living opened up their gates to fleeing US citizens I'd be on the first boat out of here

>> No.25372943

>>25372632
Chinese will wait for housing crash and then buy all the apartments.

>> No.25373034

>moving to somewhere that won't exist in 30 years
Ngmi

>> No.25373151

>>25372168
interesting counterplay

>> No.25373158

>>25373034
why say this?

>> No.25373336

>>25371659
>FOR A FUCKING PIECE OF CLOTH MAN
welcome to a jew ran world

>> No.25373446
File: 417 KB, 714x834, recycling.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
25373446

>>25372921
>if any other country with a decent standard of living opened up their gates to fleeing US citizens I'd be on the first boat out of here
I know you specified "decent standard of living" but China will probably be getting more livable pretty rapidly as they continue to overtake the US and they seem interested in using intelligent white men to fill jobs the same way the US has H1B visas to try to attract foreign talent.

>> No.25373759

>>25370515
>how long can this shit last?

Until the water runs out

Poke around the US Geological Survey website and it's clearly evident that aquifers are starting to run dry in the American west.

What kills me is that you can drive around the desert in TX, NM, and AZ right now and see huge orchards growing fruits and nuts. In the fucking desert. All of them being irrigated with groundwater that cannot be replenished on a human timescale.

Most water level samples show a steep decline from the 1970s until today. The water quality also continues to degrade as people have to drill deeper and deeper into fossil waters that can be quite salty or even radioactive.

>> No.25373791

Imagine trading your future for some boomer's bags

>> No.25373812

>>25370515
you're competing with CCP agents with limitless "chinese money" its over