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File: 37 KB, 1024x504, some_random_line.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
24984938 No.24984938 [Reply] [Original]

Dumb question here. What does pic related mean in context of economy and stock market? What can we expect?

>> No.24984945
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24984945

>>24984938

>> No.24985018

>>24984938
It just means there is more money in circulation, but it will not change anything because the velocity of money exchange has gone down. As soon as velocity picks up, we will see inflation in daily consumer goods

>> No.24985098

>>24984938
You have to match that with money velocity. Basically, more fiat is being "created", but it's just sitting there. It has to go somewhere, hence this huge asset price bubble. Crypto has a lot of rocket fuel, forget the Moon, we're going Interstellar.

>> No.24985181

>>24985098
How is it just sitting there?
Isn't M1 the money that is individual's hands or accounts?

>> No.24985308

>>24985181
Where have you been since 1971 ? Treasury sells bonds , mostly to bin turn sell them to the FED, which pays with funny money they created. The huge majority of the "money ", is just digits in balance sheets , in Wall Steet. They have no clue what to do with it, so they fall for the shale meme, or the IPO meme, or whatever.

>> No.24985330

>>24985018
That makes sense, but is there evidence to this claim?

>> No.24985400
File: 63 KB, 1157x403, meme-lines.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
24985400

>>24984938
Honestly nothing.
M1 increased from 1.5T in 2008 to 4T in Jan2020.
That's a bigger jump than the COVID meme spike.

Fiat is monopoly money but it's the government's monopoly money.
People don't want the US government to fail because the American economy is too important to global economy, so for now they can basically do whatever they want.

>> No.24985469
File: 347 KB, 1199x675, Bar9-Gold-Bug-Gerald-Celente.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
24985469

>>24985098
We have never seen such astronomical currency creation before. Velocity will soon have no impact on inflation rates. This is a controlled economic destruction. This thing is doing down big.

>> No.24985545

>>24985330
Velocity has gone down because that's the only way to explain the growth of M1 under the Quantitative theory of Money.

That said, a lot of the core assumptions of the QTM are basically bullshit, so using it as a predictive model is kinda a meme in (current year) unless you're a crank.

>> No.24985559

>>24985469
I agree, when i saw Powell announcing his free bux, i had a nasty deaj vu from 2008, and said, "fuck you, you're not doing this to me again", and moved every cent to my name into Crypto.

>> No.24985589

>>24984938
My take at this:
Imagine one certain coin doubles everyone's supply.
What happens to value?
Cut by half relative to other coins. And maybe even lower due to FUD.

>> No.24985691
File: 736 KB, 616x798, 1605699969151.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
24985691

>>24985559
Diversify some into physical silver and gold in case the grid goes down and you will be perfectly positioned.

>> No.24985764

>>24985400
In 2020 fiat increased massively with collapsing velocity of money which is still down to a pile of shit.

We will see insane inflation next two years.

>> No.24985791

>>24985469
I am starting to think this , they can't be this retarded can't they?

They are demolishing everything down.

>> No.24985832

>>24985589
OMC operations are not the same as minting fiat.
It's the Fed buying securities to inject cash into M1.
Non-liquid securities are removed from the market, and cash is added. No value is created, only liquidity.

This is different from just printing money, where no value is removed from the economy. Which is closer to your analogy, and would cause hyperinflation.

>> No.24985866

>>24985691
Not pumping Daimon's bags. fuck him

>> No.24985915

>>24985866
Do what you want, just be outside the dollar

>> No.24986038

>>24985018
>inflation in daily consumer goods
Why only that? I thought that there are much broader impacts, not only consumer goods.

>>24985018
>It just means there is more money in circulation
Sure, but where exactly is it located now?

>>24985098
>but it's just sitting there. It has to go somewhere, hence this huge asset price bubble
>>24985400
>Fiat is monopoly money but it's the government's monopoly money.
As I mentioned above in reply to >>24985018

The thing is that people don't seem to agree on this topic. Yet it seems so simple.
So is it safe to say LONG stocks like after 2008, free money, yaaaay? Where does this fucking stupid game lead?
>>24985469
>>24985791

>> No.24986136
File: 1.20 MB, 926x932, keynesdelendaest.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
24986136

>>24986038
>Where does this fucking stupid game lead?

To here

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crisis_of_the_Third_Century

but they can't possible be this retarded in the modern era.
They should know better i mean we all assume the elite has a plan but maybe they are just retards and bitcoin is unironically the last hope for civilization.

I been thinking the second option and that bitcoin was the only chance, this year just confirmed it but it's getting too real and happening too fast.

I literally called this a year ago.

>>/biz/thread/S15329753

but even i could not have expected such retarded world leaders, everyone thinks there is a great conspiracy behind all of this but the boomers at the imf panel on CBDCs could not even get microphones to work on their zoom session so maybe they were retards all along.

>> No.24986347

>>24986136
where have you learned about this crisis? literally read 4 books on crises, including 'Manias, Panics, and Crashes' and no mention of it anywhere

>> No.24986367

>>24985764
The inflation argument also assumes the OMC wont just reverse Open Market Operations and sell the securities they've been accumulating over the past decade fighting deflation. They could easily shrink M1 at any point if they needed to, but they probably wont because they were still fighting deflation even after 2010.

Also, what makes you assume there's some natural rate of Velocity that it will return to? While the QTM posits that velocity should be constant absent shocks, looking at the historical data you can't really point to a single period in time in which that was the case.

If you want to ignore that and just talk V shocks, you can argue that V has to increase once quarantine restrictions end and spending picks up, but that should also lead to a growth in Q since more people are working.
To make a case for a change in P, you'd need to compare the relative scale of each effect, which is highly speculative.

>> No.24986389

>>24984938
inflation

>> No.24986420

>>24986136
>bitcoin was the only chance

Aren't you worried about quantum computers?
>https://decrypt.co/28560/quantum-computers-could-crack-bitcoins-encryption-by-2022
That would be pretty instant crash for pretty much everything cryptocurrency related once the proof of concept is out.

>> No.24986446

>>24986420
They’re already working on “anti-quantum” measures on the blockchain. I have no clue what that means but we’ll be fine.

>> No.24986519
File: 3.41 MB, 2398x2888, currency.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
24986519

>>24986347
it's an entire century of war , that leaded rome from an advanced civilization based on free trade to a feudal shithole with diocletian reforms.
Then constatine tried to reinstall a gold standard and only worked in the east which is why the eastern roman empire survived to the 1400s.

Look at this video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5YeEGcrinSM

there is a few books about this crisis however the more it goes the less we know since the hyperinflation even made historians unable to buy paper kek.

>> No.24986535

>>24986420
Quantum compution is unavailable to the public.
It is too expensive for Private Parties and the state have a vested interest in not letting its own quantum computers be used in cracking its digital currency

>> No.24986546

>>24986420
No to attack bitcoin they need about 2400 stable qubits , right now they are at 72 unstable qubit for computers that only work in certain algorithms.

You will known if they are close to it when they start to force government instiutions to adopt anti quantum meassures.

>> No.24986595

>>24986420
There are quantum resistant algos, which I'm pretty sure some random altcoins already use.
Feasible Quantum Computers would result in either a protocol update or a hard fork.
There are billions of dollars riding on crypto, People aren't going to let it die because of hardware.

That said Quantum Computers on a scale required to break crypto have been "coming soon" for years.

>> No.24986655

>>24986420
If quantum computing actually proves successful, it's not bitcoin cracking that you should be worried about.

>> No.24987014

>>24986535
>unavailable to the public
I don't think that's relevant, see links below and that's just some chewed bones thrown at us publicly.
>https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ibm-slides-amazon-lays-groundwork-own-quantum-computer
>https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/quantum-supremacy-chinas-new-supercomputer-10-billion-times-faster-googles

>>24986595
>There are billions of dollars riding on crypto, People aren't going to let it die because of hardware.
Well, you expect they'd have chance to not let it die. Just a little perspective: Who expected let's say corona and its impacts? People would laugh at you in summer 2019, calling you schizo if you mentioned something that's happening today.

>>24986655
Yes, but it could happen simultaneously or just as collateral damage isn't it?