Are we going to make it in 2021?

[Anonymous No.24785986]

Or it's the yet another "next year we bull"

[Anonymous No.24786017]

if bitcoin doesnt reach at least 50k there is no hopium chart left. no idea what happens then

[Anonymous No.24786049]

>>24785986
Yes, bull run is happening this year.

[Anonymous No.24786061]

>>24786017
This basically, I'm escaping in 100% XMR if that happens
At least it has a usecase outside of sheer speculation

[Anonymous No.24786581]

>>24786049
Explain.

[Anonymous No.24786623]

We've waited 3 years for this

[Anonymous No.24786653]

>>24786061
>100% XMR
Based. If there is a liquidity shortage of Fiat next year I'm going all into XMR

[Anonymous No.24786718]

>>24785986
2021 will be the 3rd 4 year cycle peak, and hence the highest top of the macro 16 year cycle as well until 2033 (when half life 3 should be released lol)
but there should also be a short one year bull in 2023 before the 3 years of brutal bear market finish this macro cycle in 2026, which is gonna be probably the ultimate year to buy bitcoin besides right now

[Anonymous No.24787511]

>>24786718
you're literally retarded and just saying random years and complete bullshit
>>24786581
BTC is gonna go up a lot in 2021, like 10-25x. Various alts will go up more. IDK when the peak for BTC or alts will be. It might even extend into 2022 but I don't think so.

[Anonymous No.24787739]

>>24787511
you wish I were just saying random years, and it will be funny to watch you and other normies capitulate out of a 3 year bear market post mania, similar to the dotcom bubble pop, but I will be stacking sats the whole time
the basics of market cycles are that there are short term cycles of varying years depending on the commodity and then there are macro cycles which resemble the the shorter cycles in ratio,
much like the business cycle to the long term debt cycle

bitcoin's cycle is 4 years, unrelated to the halving as otherwise the cycle tops and bottoms would shift relative to the halving shifts in time

the 4 year cycle consists of 1 year of bear market to the new cycle bottom (approx 52 weeks), 2 years of bull market below the previous ATH, and then 1 year or less of a "bubble" market (where price breaks ATH, normies fomo in, etc)

per this ratio the macro 16 year cycle should consist of 3 bullish cycles and one bearish cycle
this being the 3rd cycle, it will probably be the most bullish (and that looks to be the case with real institutions moving in now) which will likely top in nov-dec of 2021, thereafter it will be one year or so of bear market in 2022 to finish the cycle before the 4th cycle should have these ratios reversed, likely starting with only one year of bull run in 2023, all in all a macro bulltrap after the recent mania peak, and 3 years of bearish price action (likely 2 years of crabbing around wherever the cycle bottoms out at) before beginning the next macro cycle in 2027
nigger.

[Anonymous No.24787821]

>>24787739
ya there's no 16 year cycle lol you should check your brain for damages

[Anonymous No.24787901]

>>24787739
I've had similar thoughts as well

[Anonymous No.24788558]

>>24785986
if you hold BTC, yes. the landscape right now is so fucking perfect. normies losing faith in government & their handling of money, stock market & investing going mainstream, everyone primed to fomo into to an assett going parabolic. huge institutions buying hundreds of millions worth to push us over the 20k sell wall

its fucking happening

[Anonymous No.24789121]

>>24787739
My guts agree with your brain.

[Anonymous No.24789168]

>>24788558
"normies" cannot afford bitcoin. institutions will cause and move this

[Anonymous No.24789317]

>>24787821
you're just a retard dismissing it out of hand
There's obviously not been a concrete example of it yet because bitcoin hasn't even been around for more than 12 years
but such a pattern is not only logical from the price history since bitcoin started to trade in late 2010, but also in the general psychology of how people's views and beliefs about bitcoin are shifting over time and spread of adoption of bitcoin
after institutions are in, where will the short term buying pressure come from after 2023? (keyword: "short term" or the couple years after the top)
it will obviously come back, but it will come back in such a way as the internet did after the dotcom crash as I referenced
recall that a majority of people still did not even use the internet in the year 2000
that, along with all the gains to be had from internet companies, came later
This is the way new markets get capitalized

[Anonymous No.24789408]

>>24786061
1% usecase 99% speculation won't help you retard

[Anonymous No.24789444]

>>24789168
>"normies" cannot afford bitcoin.
you know you can uh.. buy a fraction of a bitcoin? literally everyone can afford bitcoin

[Anonymous No.24789733]

>>24785986
Tomochain, desu.

[Anonymous No.24790615]

>>24789317
Because crypto is a network and it's just gonna keep fuckin growing until it swallows everything. There's not gonna be a 5-6 year bear market this decade, if you think there is then you don't have any idea what you're talking about.

You're telling yourself a story about what the institutions are gonna do and yada yada whatever the fuck. None of that is important. You can't put the brakes on this thing.

[Anonymous No.24790830]

>>24790615
did I say a 5-6 year bear market anywhere?
no
a three year bear market will be more than enough to shake out late adopters, and especially after the biggest bubble in bitcoin's history has happened, which we're likely right on the precipice of
"Number go up" doesn't happen in a straight and linear fashion, every bubble before has resulted in a parabolic top and an ~85% decline from the ATH afterward, for example

[Anonymous No.24790861]

>>24785986
we are all holding different coins, some will make whilst others will rope. Pray for all coins to 1000x AT LEAST

[Anonymous No.24790931]

>>24787739
Literally nothing you said is true. Each cycle has gotten longer with diminishing returns.

[Anonymous No.24791122]

>>24787739
Someone has been following the 4 year cycle. you must be doing pretty fucking well right now.

[Anonymous No.24791631]

>>24790931
lengthening cycles are a meme
take a look at the length of the bear markets for instance


>>24791122
I'll be a millionaire if bitcoin hits $69k, could've done better but ah well

[Anonymous No.24791927]

>>24789444
no.

[Anonymous No.24791947]

>>24785986
nothing is happening until 2025 at the earliest. go back to sleep

[Anonymous No.24791957]

>>24791631
>>>24791122 (You)
>I'll be a millionaire if bitcoin hits $69k, could've done better but ah well
You'll make it, congratulations. These retards shitting on you have no clue.
"Numbers from no where" - kek

[Anonymous No.24792096]

>>24787739
imagine this idea right... the reason your idea and the responses to your comment work it simply because it's a self fulfilling prophecy. Imagine a hyper advanced version of TA.

[Anonymous No.24792168]

>>24791631
i have, and if you had, you would have realized those are getting longer as well. keep trying to get the data to fit your narrative normalfag. reddit is probably a safer space for you.

[Anonymous No.24792399]

>>24792096
I don't think it's quite a self fulfilling prophecy because I don't think most of the market knows about it
That and, it's mostly based on market psychology and the capitalization process that new markets undergo
I was such a firm believer in this a bit because I experienced it myself in 2013 - 2017
The sense is, a certain percentage of normies are exposed to crypto in the bubble year (in my case 2013) then when they hear bitcoin has broken the ATH they basically realize how much money they could've already made at this point since they'd forgotten about the space and fomo in
depending on where they fomo in, they will either make good money (early in the bubble year) or be bagholders (very late in the year)
and thus the acceptance, knowledge, and adoption of the space gradually grows and becomes more convincing to the more middling and risk-averse person
In my case I watched the bubble in 2013-2014 and watched it all the way down to $400 before simply forgetting about it
Then by chance on the homepage of 4chan a thread about ETH mooning was there, and I jumped back into the space with enthusiasm

>>24792168
>Bitcoin 2013 top to absolute local bottom; weekly candles: 59 weeks or 410 days
>Bitcoin 2017 top to absolute local bottom; weekly candles: 52 weeks or 364 days
explain to me how cycles are lengthening when bear markets last the same amount of time?
they even replicate the 'near' double bottom rather remarkably, the first time in Jan 2015, the second time rather uncannily through the coronavirus crash but still

the only way the lengthening cycles meme makes sense is if you consider the 2011 top a whole cycle in of itself, which is in the process of being proven wrong by the sheer fact that we are at $19k right now and have already made a new ATH as we speak
Into the griftoverse is capitulating

[Anonymous No.24792574]

Based cycles posting. Bump for price predictions 2021:
>btc 360k usd
>eth 30kusd
>link 700usd

[Anonymous No.24792668]

>>24792399
>2011 wasn't a local top
>90% crash afterward
>2013 had a double top unlike anything we've seen before or since
>2019 had a mini bubble
>corona crash
you have 1 data point (2013 -> 2017) but claim to have all the answers. you're clearly a newfag who read one s2f article and suddenly you're a trading genius programming neural nets and ta analysis and fibonacci levels. i guarantee you watch your net worth drop by 80% by holding and waiting for some imaginary 300k bitcoin price target.

[Anonymous No.24792677]

>>24792574
I can't possibly forecast what bitcoin's price will top at, but I still love to do so
my bet is on an absolute local top at ~$192k for BTC, ETH at ~$16k, and Link at ~$400

[Anonymous No.24792737]

>>24785986

haircomb claimers will be very happy in 2022

[Anonymous No.24792761]

XRP is going to get regulatory clarity prob Q1-Q2. Expect big things from ripple

[Anonymous No.24792764]

>>24792737
whatever you say raju

[Anonymous No.24792771]

>>24792677
>delusion

[Anonymous No.24792786]

>>24792668
wrong
stock to flow, 4 year cycle based on halvings, and lengthening cycles are all wrong

why are you even yelling at me when by your same logic your own lengthening cycles theory can be disproven by your own data
aka the mini bubble in 2011, the mini bubble in 2019, and the difference in time between the 2013 cycle bottom and the 2017 cycle bottom; ironically for you it took LONGER to bottom in the 2013 cycle than our most recent one!

I as well have at least 2 historical data points (2010-2014 and 2015-2018) whereas you have none actually consistent with the price history unless you pretend that the day bitcoin was created was the very day its trading value began to matter, rather than when it began trading in an even semi liquid market
I am no newfag, indeed I could really accuse you of being one since it seems only newfags adhere to the lengthening cycles theory and blindly follow into the cyptoverse's drivel

what will you do if bitcoin tops next year in the nov-dec-jan timeframe?

[Anonymous No.24792803]

>>24792574
I agree except for Link.

Link- $1477

Check digits.

[Anonymous No.24792818]

>>24785986
I have a penis

[Anonymous No.24792852]

>>24792786
>everything is wrong except for my delusional 16 year cycle based on nothing
sure bud

[Anonymous No.24792856]

>>24792818
That's a woman

[Anonymous No.24792859]

>>24792786
>what will you do if bitcoin tops next year in the nov-dec-jan timeframe?
sell, just like i did in dec 2017.

[Anonymous No.24792888]

>>24792786
>I as well have at least 2 historical data points (2010-2014 and 2015-2018)
so now it's a five/four year cycle. fuck you're retarded.

[Anonymous No.24793005]

>>24792852
the '16 year cycle' is not proven yet, but it's a hypothesis based on other commodities which could play out, or not
some people predicted $1,000,000 bitcoin by 2020 even in 2015, others predicted like pic related all the way back in 2014
the market will ultimately decide how quickly we go and we'll know more the closer we get to individual tops and bottoms, as any retard could guess

>>24792859
good, then you've got it, and you'll make it

>>24792888
nice completely unsubtle take on the actual data, perhaps typical of a lengething cycle fag

the trading of bitcoin started in earnest in 2010 on different exchanges at different times, mt.gox becoming one of the biggest shortly thereafter
then the cycle top occurred on November 30th, 2013
after that the cycle bottom hit on January 14th, 2015
then the next cycle top was as we all know, on December 17th 2017
following that the next cycle bottom was on December 16th, 2018

Does that sound like a "five/four" cycle to you?

[Sail on, internet people. No.24793087]

>>24793005
So according to the 16 year cycle, where this bullrun has an extra boost, do you expect the price to maybe be extra high at the peak, but still peak according to schedule (in dec 2021)?

[Anonymous No.24793224]

>>24793005
no it sounds like five/three

[Anonymous No.24793292]

>>24793087
Yeah that's essentially the idea
If you listen to Raoul Pal currently he says that institutional investors and family offices are talking about bitcoin like nothing else right now and the fact that real financial institutions are verifiably IN right now and that microstrategy has basically taken away the first mover stigma, the flood on money coming in to bitcoin will dwarf any other bubble (since all previous bubbles were entirely retail)
That said, Raoul pal can't be considered a once stop source, but a lot of other indicators, both onchain and offchain are showing a Big Boy Bubble
I mean, there are so many vectors for the bitcoin price to reach at minimum $100k rn that 4chan's character limit wouldn't fit them
You have $100 trillion of low or negative yielding bond market over the long term providing buy pressure, hedge fund interest, big bank interest, corporate interest, retail interest, dedollarized governments interest...
and the holy grail of them all... reserve currency status
that last one I don't think we'll hit until at least 2037/ 2040

[Sail on, internet people. No.24793350]

>>24793292
My nightmare is that I sell the top at whatever price in, say, december, bitcoin starts falling and I feel like a genius and then it starts quickly rising and keeps going and never falls below my sell price again, because reasons. I absolutely do not expect this to be the case, but I'm so afraid of it that I'm only planning on selling about half my btc, keeping the other half for this eventuality. Now, I sell and bitcoin goes up but then falls again (I just didn't sell the absolute top) I won't kick myself, I just don't want to be shaken out.
You? Are you selling all your btc at what you think is the top or just a portion?

[Sail on, internet people. No.24793388]

>>24793292
>>24793350
And in case that wasn't clear this relates to what you said in that I agree completely, and building off what you said, I'm not completely convinced we'll actually see the Big Dip after this bull run, we could see a Quick Shakeout and another run and a plateau. What odds do you give such a scenario?

[Anonymous No.24793395]

lol wtf how did I get that ridiculous name tag filled out? I must have ben so drunk..

[Anonymous No.24793423]

>>24790615
This is the guy that thinks it goes up forever and forgets to sell the top

[Anonymous No.24793437]

>>24786049
This year?
There's only half a month left. What makes you so certain?

[Anonymous No.24793442]

If BTC doesnt moon by december next year
hopium dies, means institutions control it and i'm out.

[Anonymous No.24793453]

>>24793224
>tops in late Nov 2013
>3 years later breaks new ATH in Jan 2017
>1 year later tops in mid Dec 2017
>3 years later breaks a new ATH late Nov 2020
>...
fill in the blank


>>24793350
That's a good plan regardless
I don't know what portion I'm selling yet because we need to be closer to the actual timeframe for the top to really be able to speculate well on where it could go
Obviously if btc if over $56k by the usual summer slump in 2021, we have a better likelihood of getting to $150k and beyond
But no matter fucking what I am never selling at least 2.1 of my BTC
I maintain that 2.1 BTC is still /makeit/ money, possibly even just one whole bitcoin if you wait long enough
You grandchildren will be happy with 1 BTC to the family name if we get to reserve currency status, is all I can say
meant pic related for
>>24793005
the classic log regression

[Anonymous No.24793481]

>>24793292
so then if BTC will start pumping like crazy going to 100k$, then the all the alts will shit the bed and die off?

[Anonymous No.24793501]

>>24793453
class log regression implies a leveling off of gains with increasing time. your own chart shows how the time between each 10x is increasing each time. so much cope.

[Anonymous No.24793522]

>>24792764
>racism in response to learning about haircomb

[Anonymous No.24793559]

>>24793481
meh, that depends on the behaviors of institutional investors and also how much retail investor enthusiasm they drum up
alts have smaller marketcaps and hence are necessarily more unpredictable because less money is required to move the markets

>>24793501
the gains are indeed decreasing, but the time between cycles is not
this is related to the concept above, where it is harder and harder to move the price the higher the marketcap and liquidity of a market goes
this is obvious because any poorfag can double their $100 investment but doubling $1,000,000 cannot be done safely by gambling on just any old lowcap shitcoin

[Anonymous No.24793581]

>>24793481
Initially but the big driver for the speculative bubble in alts has always been retail.
So if btc pumps hard you can expect alt coins to shit the bed, but once btc takes a breather as retail normies move in late yet again, they will buy alts and it will pump, how hard who knows. But with tiny marketcaps I expect something similar to last cycle.

[Anonymous No.24793743]

>>24793453
Is there any explanation for that curve beyond halvings? Halvings plus network effect?
Do you think it is possible that it turns into an S curve?

[Anonymous No.24793818]

>>24789408
More like 99% usecase. How does monero not fill its usecase?

[Anonymous No.24793886]

>>24793743
the halvings are NOT the explanation as I expressed earlier because the tops and bottoms do not seem to shift consistently with the shifting halving dates
there is no discernible 'reason' for the curve other than the combination of all the factors that drive this market, which really can't be well summed up yet by any model so far
That's probably beyond the scope of any human inquiry right now, otherwise we would've 'solved' the stock market
What was the reason for the 2019 pump to ~$14k?
The answer is basically "because a lot of people bought"

there are only really some 2-3 million bitcoin on exchanges at any given time so the short term (intrayearly) price can vary a great deal

It is likely that the curve will flatten out at some point, I'm guessing that will begin as early as 2040 but that far out it depends on incalculable stuff like the level of development of the third world, and the sum of world wealth at the time
In any case we will well have made it by then

[Anonymous No.24793895]

>>24792786
Anon do you have some good resources to suggest? Or perhaps you have written yourself something nice?

What do you think of Benjamin Cowen? Seems pretty smart. But he's a proponent of the lengthening cycles idea.

[Anonymous No.24793987]

>>24793895
I should write something out, I was thinking of doing a long term forecast post of some kind cause I'm tired of writing snippets of the same thing every 100th thread

I like Ben Cowan because of his analytical mindset towards these things, but yes he insists on the lengthening cycles idea, which will only take less than a year now to prove wrong
Particularly I like his "risk metrics" take on the price, as it's pretty good regardless of anything else

there is no one source of good information unfortunately because if there really were and everyone believed it, it would be invalidated by those who countertraded it
but one guy I would recommend at least as a macro take is bob loukas

[Anonymous No.24794043]

>>24793987
>I should write something out
Yes, you should. Do anons a favor.

>which will only take less than a year now to prove wrong
Indeed, if the current bull run proves to be legitimate, then he's already wrong for having predicted it occurring in 2022.

[Anonymous No.24794109]

>>24786623
this chart gets dumber every time I see it. I'm bullish on Bitcoin but there's a difference between going from 1,000 to 10,000 and going from 10,000 to 100,000.